国际经济周期理论综述
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摘要
传统的真实商业周期(Real Business Cycles)理论是由Kydland和Prescott在1982年和King、Plossor在1983年的文章中发展和建立起来的,该理论采用动态一般均衡随机模型,通过动态规划的方法得到跨期行为中的效用最大化,最终模型能够较好的解释在封闭经济条件下一国经济中产出、就业和投资等宏观经济变量的周期性波动变化。但是由于理论本身假定是基于封闭经济的单个经济体的分析,而随着国际间相互联系的不断发展,90年代以后逐渐发展起来的国际真实商业周期(International Real Business Cycles)理论获得了更广泛的关注,其采用开放的视角,通过构建一个两国(或更多国家)间的动态一般均衡随机模型分析国际间国与国之间宏观经济变量的协动性、波动性和持续性等经济变量特征,对于研究国际间协调等具有很好的理论价值。
但是根据RBC理论发展而来的IRBC理论在引入现实经济以后,发现一系列经济数据特征事实和模型之间的不一致性,其中最重要的是两个悖论:数量悖论和价格悖论。基于早期的基础的研究,国外对于IRBC的研究已经进入新的领域,学者们通过不同的方法试图更好的解释这两个悖论的存在从而诞生了不同的流派,有学者尝试将不完善市场假定引入模型即不再认为市场是完备的,通过引入价格和工资粘性、市场摩擦和贸易壁垒等因素来使模型结果更加一致;另一部分人通过对偏好更加进一步细致的研究,改进了模型的输出结果;也有学者通过将部门分解的方法,试图更好的解决现实与理论间的不一致。
本文主要介绍了国际经济周期相关研究的状况,对IRBC理论处理经济问题过程中建模、数据处理、模型拟合以及改进等方面进行了综述。第一部分是对于理论综述的意义和方向,第二部分对经典的真实商业周期理论进行了简单的回顾并且说明了封闭条件下RBC理论无法解决开放经济条件下的经济波动问题,第三部分对目前国际经济周期理论,主要是基于RBC理论基础上的IRBC方法从数据处理方法和传导机制的研究方面进行了重点介绍,第四部分是对文章的总结和政策建议,依据目前国际经济周期已经得到的一些可靠的结论结合我国真实的经济情况和国情提出了一些政策建议。
Traditional real business cycle (RBC) theory was set up and developed by Kydland and Prescott in 1982 and King, Plossor in 1983,the theory was built on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, through the dynamic programming approach intertemporal utility maximization behavior, the final model can explain the changes in the cyclical fluctuations in a closed economy in the output, employment and investment. However, because the theory itself is based on the assumption that a single closed economy analysis of economies, while ignoring the inter-linkages with the international community continuous developing, the international real business cycle theory which is developed after the 90's in the progressive procedure has obtained a broader concern on the perspective. It opens its views, through the construction of a two (or more) countries between the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model analysis of international macro-economic variables between the association for mobility, volatility and sustainability of economic variables and values very well as an measurement in studying characteristics of the international coordination.
However, according to RBC, the theory of IRBC developed from the theory of RBC after the introduction of the real economy was found that the characteristics of a series of economic data and the fact that the inconsistency with the model, the most important of which are two anomalies: the quantity and price anomalies. Based on early IRBC basic research, study for the IRBC abroad has entered new areas, in order to solve these two anomalies, some scholars have tried to introduce a model of imperfect market assumptions that the market is no longer complete, by introducing the price and wages sticky, the market factors such as friction and trade barriers; also some other scholars try to better address the reality and the inconsistencies between the theory by decomposing the sectors of production and consumption. Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium modeling approach is characterized by the use of a calibration method to be fully fit the economic model of economic data, it was later adopted by the scholars as well as the assumptions on the model changes the local structure, in the model and the economic data has been made with made great progress.
This paper studies the theory of international real business cycle , reviews the IRBC theory on dealing with the economy for the process modeling; data processing, model fitting, as well as the areas of improvement. The first part is the meaning of the theory and innovation, the second part reviews the classical real business cycle theory and gives a brief description of the RBC theory which is closed under the conditions of an open economy can not solve the problem of economic fluctuations, the third part presents the IRBC theory, which is mainly based on the RBC theory method on data processing and transmission mechanism ,the fourth part of the article's summary and policy recommendations, based on the current international economic cycle has been some combination of a reliable conclusion of China's real economic situation and the conditions put forward some policy recommendations.
但是根据RBC理论发展而来的IRBC理论在引入现实经济以后,发现一系列经济数据特征事实和模型之间的不一致性,其中最重要的是两个悖论:数量悖论和价格悖论。基于早期的基础的研究,国外对于IRBC的研究已经进入新的领域,学者们通过不同的方法试图更好的解释这两个悖论的存在从而诞生了不同的流派,有学者尝试将不完善市场假定引入模型即不再认为市场是完备的,通过引入价格和工资粘性、市场摩擦和贸易壁垒等因素来使模型结果更加一致;另一部分人通过对偏好更加进一步细致的研究,改进了模型的输出结果;也有学者通过将部门分解的方法,试图更好的解决现实与理论间的不一致。
本文主要介绍了国际经济周期相关研究的状况,对IRBC理论处理经济问题过程中建模、数据处理、模型拟合以及改进等方面进行了综述。第一部分是对于理论综述的意义和方向,第二部分对经典的真实商业周期理论进行了简单的回顾并且说明了封闭条件下RBC理论无法解决开放经济条件下的经济波动问题,第三部分对目前国际经济周期理论,主要是基于RBC理论基础上的IRBC方法从数据处理方法和传导机制的研究方面进行了重点介绍,第四部分是对文章的总结和政策建议,依据目前国际经济周期已经得到的一些可靠的结论结合我国真实的经济情况和国情提出了一些政策建议。
Traditional real business cycle (RBC) theory was set up and developed by Kydland and Prescott in 1982 and King, Plossor in 1983,the theory was built on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, through the dynamic programming approach intertemporal utility maximization behavior, the final model can explain the changes in the cyclical fluctuations in a closed economy in the output, employment and investment. However, because the theory itself is based on the assumption that a single closed economy analysis of economies, while ignoring the inter-linkages with the international community continuous developing, the international real business cycle theory which is developed after the 90's in the progressive procedure has obtained a broader concern on the perspective. It opens its views, through the construction of a two (or more) countries between the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model analysis of international macro-economic variables between the association for mobility, volatility and sustainability of economic variables and values very well as an measurement in studying characteristics of the international coordination.
However, according to RBC, the theory of IRBC developed from the theory of RBC after the introduction of the real economy was found that the characteristics of a series of economic data and the fact that the inconsistency with the model, the most important of which are two anomalies: the quantity and price anomalies. Based on early IRBC basic research, study for the IRBC abroad has entered new areas, in order to solve these two anomalies, some scholars have tried to introduce a model of imperfect market assumptions that the market is no longer complete, by introducing the price and wages sticky, the market factors such as friction and trade barriers; also some other scholars try to better address the reality and the inconsistencies between the theory by decomposing the sectors of production and consumption. Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium modeling approach is characterized by the use of a calibration method to be fully fit the economic model of economic data, it was later adopted by the scholars as well as the assumptions on the model changes the local structure, in the model and the economic data has been made with made great progress.
This paper studies the theory of international real business cycle , reviews the IRBC theory on dealing with the economy for the process modeling; data processing, model fitting, as well as the areas of improvement. The first part is the meaning of the theory and innovation, the second part reviews the classical real business cycle theory and gives a brief description of the RBC theory which is closed under the conditions of an open economy can not solve the problem of economic fluctuations, the third part presents the IRBC theory, which is mainly based on the RBC theory method on data processing and transmission mechanism ,the fourth part of the article's summary and policy recommendations, based on the current international economic cycle has been some combination of a reliable conclusion of China's real economic situation and the conditions put forward some policy recommendations.
引文
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[8] Ambler,S. Cardia,E.and Zimmermann,C:" International Transmission o f the Business Cycle in A Multi-sector Model ",European Economic Review 2002,4 6,273-300
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[36]Saidi, N:"Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the International Transmission of Economic Disturbances", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,1982,14 :575-591
[37] Sargent, Thomas J .and Christophor A .Sims:" Business Cycle Modeling without Pretending to Have Too Much a Prior Economic Theory: New Methods in Business Cycle Research", Federal Research Bank of Minneapolis, (1980),Minneapolis, M N.
[38]Stockman, Alan C .:" Sectoral and National Aggregate Disturbances to Industrial Output in Seven European Countries", Journal of Money Economics,(1988)21:387-409.
[39] Stockman Alan C .:"International Transmission and Real Business Cycle Model",The American Economic Review, (1990) Vol.80 NO.2:1 34-138.
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[41]Canova, Fabio and Angel Ubide,"Household Production and International Business Cycles", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (1998)
[42]Cardia, Emanuela, "The Dynamics of a Small Open Economy in Response to Monetary, Fiscal and Productivity Shocks", Journal of Monetary Economics 28,(1991)411-34
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[2] Marianne Baxter and Robert G. King, 'Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series' Review of Economics and Statistics,November 1999,81(4):575-593
[3] Baxter, Marianne and Crucini, Mario J. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade." International Economic Review, November 1995,36(4),
[4] Stockman, A.C., Tesar, L.L.,1995, Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: Explaining international comovements. American Economic Review 85
[5] Finn E .Kydland and Edward C .Prescott "time to build and aggregate fluctuations" Econometric vol 50,No6 .1982.pp .13 45-137
[6] **King, Robert G.,Plossor,Charles L,and Rebelo,Sergio T ."Production Growth an d Business Cycles:.New Dierctions." Journal of Monetary Economics, M arch/May 1988,21 (2),pp .309-341.
[7] King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio T,"Resuscitating Real Business Cycles " Journal of Monetary Economics, 1999,Vol-33,no-2 :405 — 438
[8] Ambler,S. Cardia,E.and Zimmermann,C:" International Transmission o f the Business Cycle in A Multi-sector Model ",European Economic Review 2002,4 6,273-300
[9] Ambler,S. ,Cardia,E. and Zimmermann, C.:" International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts? ", Journal of Monetary Economics 2004 51,257-276.
[10]Backus,D .K.,Kehoe,P.J .and Kydland. E.: "International and business cycle",Journal of Political Economy, 1992, Vol.100( 4), 745-775
[11]Kollmann,R.: "The correlation of Productivity growth across regions and industries in the United States ",Economics Letters 1995,47.437-443.
[12] Long, J. B. and Plossor C .1.:"Real Business Cycles", Journal of Political Economy, 1983,Vol.91, 39-69.
[13]Micthell,W .C: Business cycles: The problem and its setting ",NBER 1927,New York
[14]Norrbin,S.C.and Schlagenhauf D.E.:" The Role of International Factor in the Business Cycle :A Multi-country Study", Journal of International Economics 1996,40,85-104
[15]Evans,C. "Productivity shocks and real business cycles" Journal of Monetary Economics 1992
[16] Kydland. E. and E .C. Prescott "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth" Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 1990
[17] Ahmed, Shaghi I. ,Ickes W.Barry,Wang Ping and Byung Sam Yon:" International Business Cycle", The American Economic Review, 1993,VOL.83 NO.3:33 5-359
[18] Backus, David K .and Patrick J .Kehoe:" International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycle", The American Economic Review, 1992,VOL.82
[19] Backus, David K .,Patrick J .Kehoe and Finn E .Kydland:" International Business Cycle: Theory and Evidence" ,In: Cooley,T.F.(Eds.), Frontiers of Business Cycle Research Princeton University Press, 1995,Princeton,N J:33I-356.
[20] Backus, David K .,Patrick J .Kehoe and Finn E .Kydland:" Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: the J -Curve", The American Economic Review, 1994,V OL.84N O.1,March: 85-101.
[21]Baxter, Marianne and Alan C .Stockman:" Business Cycle and the Exchange Rate Regime :Some International Evidence", Journal of Money Economics, 1989,23:37 7-400.
[22]Baxter, Marianne and Mario J .Crucini:" Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations", The American Economic Review, 1993,VOL.83 NO.3: 416-436.
[23]Baxter, Marianne and Mario J .Crucini: "Business Cycle and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade", International Economic Review, 1995,VOL.36 NO.4:821-853.
[24]Cantor, R .and N .mark:" International Debt and World Business Fluctuations",International Economic Review, 1987,VOL.29:493-507
[25] Cantor, Richard and Nelson C .Mark:" The International Transmission of Real Business Cycle", International Economic Review, 1988,VOL.29N 0.3:49 2-507.
[26]Choudri, E .and L .Cohen" The Exchange Rate and the International Transmission of Business Cycle Disturbances: Some Evidence from the Great Depression", Journal of money, Credit and Banking, 1980:12,NO.4:56 5-574.
[27] Costello ,Donna M .and Jack Praschnik: "The Role of Oil Price Shocks i n a two-Sector, two-Country Model of the Business Cycle", Manuscript. University of Western Ontario. 1993
[28] Daniel, Betty C .:" The International Transmission Economic Disturbance under Flexible Exchange Rates", International Economic Review ,1981,VOL.22N O.3:49 1-509
[29]Dellas ,Harris:" A Real Model of the World Business Cycle", Journal of International Money and Finance, 1986,5:38 1-394.
[30]Flood ,Robert P. And Nancy Peregrim Marion:"The Transmission of Disturbance under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes with Optimal Indexing", Quarterly Journal of Economics, (1982) Feb.: 42-66.
[31]Norrbin, Stefan C .and Don E .Schlagenhauf:" An Inquiry into the Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations", Journal of Monetary Economics, (1988)22:43-70.
[32]Morgenstern, Oskar:" International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles",NBER,(1959),New York.
[33]Nadenichek, Jon:" Asset Markets ,Relative Price Shocks and Trade Anomalies in International Real Business Cycle Models", Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, (2001)41:183-203.
[34]North, Douglas C. "Structure and Change in Economic History"(1981),New York: W.W.Norton &Company, Inc.
[35]Ravn, Morten:" International Business Cycle in Theory and in Practice", Journal of International Money and Finance, (1997)VOL.16N 0.2:25 5-283.
[36]Saidi, N:"Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the International Transmission of Economic Disturbances", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,1982,14 :575-591
[37] Sargent, Thomas J .and Christophor A .Sims:" Business Cycle Modeling without Pretending to Have Too Much a Prior Economic Theory: New Methods in Business Cycle Research", Federal Research Bank of Minneapolis, (1980),Minneapolis, M N.
[38]Stockman, Alan C .:" Sectoral and National Aggregate Disturbances to Industrial Output in Seven European Countries", Journal of Money Economics,(1988)21:387-409.
[39] Stockman Alan C .:"International Transmission and Real Business Cycle Model",The American Economic Review, (1990) Vol.80 NO.2:1 34-138.
[40] Stockman, Alan C .and Linda L .Tesar:" Tastes and Technology in A T wo-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements", The American Economic Review, (1992) VOL.85N O.1:168-185
[41]Canova, Fabio and Angel Ubide,"Household Production and International Business Cycles", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (1998)
[42]Cardia, Emanuela, "The Dynamics of a Small Open Economy in Response to Monetary, Fiscal and Productivity Shocks", Journal of Monetary Economics 28,(1991)411-34
[43]Devereux, Michael, Allan Gregory and Gregor Smith, 'Realistic Cross-Country Consumption Co-relations in a Two-Country, Equilibrium Business Cycle Model", Journal of International Money and Finance (1992)11, 3-16
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