基于东亚经济的I-RBC理论研究
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摘要
2007年美国爆发次贷危机,经过一段时间的演变,次贷危机发展成为波及全世界的经济危机,并使全球经济陷入衰退当中,在这场危机当中,中国的进出口和整体经济都受到了极大的冲击。由此可见,在经济全球化的现代,各国经济之间的联系越来越紧密,中国作为全球经济体当中的重要一员,受到其它国家的影响越来越紧密,相对应的,中国对其它国家的影响也进一步加强。在全球应对经济危机当中,世界其它国家对于中国也寄予了很高的期望,那么中国现在是不是已经成为世界经济体当中具有绝对优势的国家呢?中国是不是已经可以承担起拯救世界经济的重任呢?中国经济和其它国家经济的相互联系和影响是本文关系的主要内容。
本文拟采用的理论模型是是实际经济周期理论,作为研究经济周期的主流理论,实际经济周期理论在研究开放经济和国际经济方面也有重要的贡献,Mendoza(1991), Backus等人(1992)分别提出了I-RBC模型的基本框架,以后的国际实际经济周期理论都是在他们提出的理论框架的基础之上加入资本调整成本,贸易条件等因素逐步发展起来的。随着实际经济周期理论逐渐成为目前的主流,I-RBC也成为研究国际经济周期的主流理论。但目前的前沿模型理论同现实西方经济之间仍存在许多不尽人意之处,对于中国和东亚经济的模拟效果方面的研究更少。本文尝试进行这方面的研究。结构如下：首先本文对相关的理论进行综述研究,选取合适的模型来模拟经济。其次,利用中国,日本和韩国的数据进行实证,得到中日韩三国的经济周期的典型事实,在实证当中,尝试验证Backus提出的一个国际实际经济周期当中存在的典型事实,r(y, y*)> r(z,z*)> r(c,c*),其中y,z,c分别为本国产出,索洛剩余和消费,y*,z*,c*对应与外国的产出,索洛剩余和消费。结果发现只有中韩的数据严格符合该典型事实,但是中日之间的相关系数高于中韩之间的相关系数。第三,利用模拟经济得到的特征事实和实际经济进行比较,分析模型的解释力和不足之处。重点在于分析中日韩三国经济的相互影响方面。本文通过脉冲响应方法分析了中日韩三国经济冲击的相互影响。本文主要分析了GDP,技术和投资三种冲击的影响,经过分析发现,GDP和技术冲击都有逐渐减弱的趋势,而投资冲击的持续性较强,而且,日本的经济冲击对于中国和韩国的影响力很大,而相比之下,中国的经济冲击对于日韩的影响就很微弱。
因此,通过以上分析,本文发现,中国的经济发展虽然很强势,在这次危机当中,中国受到的冲击相比其它国家而言也较小,政府及时的强有力的财政政策也较好的帮助中国经济摆脱危机,但是中国的经济影响并不像想象的那么强大,中国依然是一个发展中国家,尽管总体规模已经达到一定水平,但是人均收入,生活水平等和世界其它国家还有很大差距,最关键的是,中国经济发展受到其它国家的影响依然很强,但是中国对于其他国家经济发展的影响还是比较微弱的。
2007 U. S. outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, after a period of evolution, the sub-prime crisis spread to the world economy into crisis and the global economy into recession which, in this crisis, China's imports and exports and the overall economy have been very repercussions. Thus, in the modern economic globalization, countries increasingly close economic ties between China among the world's economies, an important member of the increasing influence by other countries closely corresponding to the Chinese on the other for the nation further. Among the global economic crisis, for the rest of the world China has placed high expectations,
But the current model theory with the reality of frontier between Western economies still much to be desired, for China and East Asian economic aspects of the simulation results even less. This paper attempts to research in this area. Structured as follows:First, this study reviewed the relevant theoretical research, select the appropriate model to simulate the economy. Secondly, the use of China, Japan and South Korea empirical data obtained in Japan and South Korea's economic cycle stylized facts, in evidence which, try to verify the Backus proposed an international real existence of the economic cycle stylized facts, which were based out of domestic
This paper uses the theoretical model is the actual business cycle theory, as the study of the economic cycle mainstream theory, real business cycle theory in an open economy and international economy also have important contributions, Mendoza (1991), Backus and others (1992) were I-RBC model put forward the basic framework for the future of international real business cycle theory are the theoretical framework for them based on the accession of capital adjustment costs, trade conditions and other factors gradually develop. With the real business cycle theory has gradually become the mainstream, I-RBC has become the mainstream of international economic cycle theory.
But the current model theory with the reality of frontier between Western economies still much to be desired, for China and East Asian economic aspects of the simulation results even less. This paper attempts to research in this area. Structured as follows:First, this study reviewed the relevant theoretical research, select the appropriate model to simulate the economy. Secondly, the use of China, Japan and South Korea empirical data obtained in Japan and South Korea's economic cycle stylized facts, in evidence which, try to verify the Backus proposed an international real existence of the economic cycle stylized facts, which were based out of domestic
So China is now not has become the world economy which has the absolute advantage of the country? Is China ready to assume the important task of saving the world economy then? China and other countries economies inter 1 inked and affect the relationship between the main contents of this paper.
So low residual and consumption,,, corresponding with foreign output, So low residual and consumption. Found that only China and South Korea's data in strict compliance with the stylized facts, but the correlation coefficient between China and Japan than the correlation coefficient between China and South Korea. Third, the use of the fact that simulated the characteristics of the economy and real economic comparison model of explanation and deficiencies. Analysis of Japan and South Korea focused on the mutual impact of the economy. This paper analyzes the impulse response method in Japan and South Korea economic shocks affect each other. This paper analyzes the GDP, technology and investment of three shocks, after analysis, GDP and technology have gradually weakened the impact of the trend, while the impact of the continuing strong investment, and that the economic impact of Japan and South Korea to China's influence greatly, in contrast to China's economic impact for Japan and Korea very weak influence. But China's economic development for the impact of other countries is still relatively weak.
本文拟采用的理论模型是是实际经济周期理论,作为研究经济周期的主流理论,实际经济周期理论在研究开放经济和国际经济方面也有重要的贡献,Mendoza(1991), Backus等人(1992)分别提出了I-RBC模型的基本框架,以后的国际实际经济周期理论都是在他们提出的理论框架的基础之上加入资本调整成本,贸易条件等因素逐步发展起来的。随着实际经济周期理论逐渐成为目前的主流,I-RBC也成为研究国际经济周期的主流理论。但目前的前沿模型理论同现实西方经济之间仍存在许多不尽人意之处,对于中国和东亚经济的模拟效果方面的研究更少。本文尝试进行这方面的研究。结构如下：首先本文对相关的理论进行综述研究,选取合适的模型来模拟经济。其次,利用中国,日本和韩国的数据进行实证,得到中日韩三国的经济周期的典型事实,在实证当中,尝试验证Backus提出的一个国际实际经济周期当中存在的典型事实,r(y, y*)> r(z,z*)> r(c,c*),其中y,z,c分别为本国产出,索洛剩余和消费,y*,z*,c*对应与外国的产出,索洛剩余和消费。结果发现只有中韩的数据严格符合该典型事实,但是中日之间的相关系数高于中韩之间的相关系数。第三,利用模拟经济得到的特征事实和实际经济进行比较,分析模型的解释力和不足之处。重点在于分析中日韩三国经济的相互影响方面。本文通过脉冲响应方法分析了中日韩三国经济冲击的相互影响。本文主要分析了GDP,技术和投资三种冲击的影响,经过分析发现,GDP和技术冲击都有逐渐减弱的趋势,而投资冲击的持续性较强,而且,日本的经济冲击对于中国和韩国的影响力很大,而相比之下,中国的经济冲击对于日韩的影响就很微弱。
因此,通过以上分析,本文发现,中国的经济发展虽然很强势,在这次危机当中,中国受到的冲击相比其它国家而言也较小,政府及时的强有力的财政政策也较好的帮助中国经济摆脱危机,但是中国的经济影响并不像想象的那么强大,中国依然是一个发展中国家,尽管总体规模已经达到一定水平,但是人均收入,生活水平等和世界其它国家还有很大差距,最关键的是,中国经济发展受到其它国家的影响依然很强,但是中国对于其他国家经济发展的影响还是比较微弱的。
2007 U. S. outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, after a period of evolution, the sub-prime crisis spread to the world economy into crisis and the global economy into recession which, in this crisis, China's imports and exports and the overall economy have been very repercussions. Thus, in the modern economic globalization, countries increasingly close economic ties between China among the world's economies, an important member of the increasing influence by other countries closely corresponding to the Chinese on the other for the nation further. Among the global economic crisis, for the rest of the world China has placed high expectations,
But the current model theory with the reality of frontier between Western economies still much to be desired, for China and East Asian economic aspects of the simulation results even less. This paper attempts to research in this area. Structured as follows:First, this study reviewed the relevant theoretical research, select the appropriate model to simulate the economy. Secondly, the use of China, Japan and South Korea empirical data obtained in Japan and South Korea's economic cycle stylized facts, in evidence which, try to verify the Backus proposed an international real existence of the economic cycle stylized facts, which were based out of domestic
This paper uses the theoretical model is the actual business cycle theory, as the study of the economic cycle mainstream theory, real business cycle theory in an open economy and international economy also have important contributions, Mendoza (1991), Backus and others (1992) were I-RBC model put forward the basic framework for the future of international real business cycle theory are the theoretical framework for them based on the accession of capital adjustment costs, trade conditions and other factors gradually develop. With the real business cycle theory has gradually become the mainstream, I-RBC has become the mainstream of international economic cycle theory.
But the current model theory with the reality of frontier between Western economies still much to be desired, for China and East Asian economic aspects of the simulation results even less. This paper attempts to research in this area. Structured as follows:First, this study reviewed the relevant theoretical research, select the appropriate model to simulate the economy. Secondly, the use of China, Japan and South Korea empirical data obtained in Japan and South Korea's economic cycle stylized facts, in evidence which, try to verify the Backus proposed an international real existence of the economic cycle stylized facts, which were based out of domestic
So China is now not has become the world economy which has the absolute advantage of the country? Is China ready to assume the important task of saving the world economy then? China and other countries economies inter 1 inked and affect the relationship between the main contents of this paper.
So low residual and consumption,,, corresponding with foreign output, So low residual and consumption. Found that only China and South Korea's data in strict compliance with the stylized facts, but the correlation coefficient between China and Japan than the correlation coefficient between China and South Korea. Third, the use of the fact that simulated the characteristics of the economy and real economic comparison model of explanation and deficiencies. Analysis of Japan and South Korea focused on the mutual impact of the economy. This paper analyzes the impulse response method in Japan and South Korea economic shocks affect each other. This paper analyzes the GDP, technology and investment of three shocks, after analysis, GDP and technology have gradually weakened the impact of the trend, while the impact of the continuing strong investment, and that the economic impact of Japan and South Korea to China's influence greatly, in contrast to China's economic impact for Japan and Korea very weak influence. But China's economic development for the impact of other countries is still relatively weak.
引文
[1]陈昆亭 龚六堂 邹恒甫 基本RBC方法模拟中国经济的数值试验 世界经济文汇2004年第2期
[2]陈昆亭 龚六堂 中国经济增长的周期与波动的研究——引入人力资本后的RBC模型 经济学(季刊)2004年7月第3卷第4期
[3]陈昆亭 龚六堂 邹恒甫 什么造成了经济增长的波动,供给还是需求：中国经济的RBC分析 世界经济2004年第4期
[4]陈昆亭 周炎 龚六堂 中国经济周期波动特征分析：滤波方法的应用 世界经济2004年第10期
[5]陈昆亭 龚六堂 粘滞价格模型以及对中国经济是数值模拟——对基本RBC模型的改进 数量经济技术经济研究2006年第8期
[6]程传海 东亚经济协动的研究 亚太经济2007年第3期
[7]堵溢 孙宁华 基于RBC模型的动态随机一般均衡的数值解 经济数学2007年9月24卷第3期
[8]杜婷 国际贸易冲击与中国经济的周期波动 国际贸易问题2006年第12期
[9]杜婷 中国经济波动的典型事实 世界经济2007年第4期
[10]杜清源 龚六堂 带“金融加速器”的RBC模型金融研究 2005年第4期
[11]杜群阳 宋玉华 东亚经济周期与次区域经济周期存在性检验 国际贸易问题2005年第8期
[12]龚刚 实际商业周期：理论、检验与争议 经济学(季刊)2004年7月第3卷第4期
[13]何艳秋 中国经济与美、日经济波动的相关性研究 经济与管理2008年第7期
[14]黄赜琳 实际经济周期理论及其对中国的启发 经济问题2007年第7期
[15]贾俊雪 郭庆旺 开放经济条件下的中国经济周期波动特征 2007年第7期
[16]简泽 技术冲击、资本积累与经济波动——对实际经济周期理论的一个检
验统计研究2005年第11期
[17]李浩 胡永刚 马知遥 国际贸易与中国的实际经济周期——基于封闭与开放经济的RBC模型比较分析
[18]林秀丽 舒元 再议我国对美出口与美国GDP增长的相关性——基于协整分析和Granger因果检验 国际贸易问题 2005年第1期
[19]刘金全 张鹤 经济增长风险的冲击传导和经济周期波动的“溢出效应”经济研究2003年第10期
[20]钱士春 中国宏观经济波动实证分析：1952-2002统计研究2004年第4期
[21]宋玉华 高莉 世界经济周期的贸易传导机制 世界经济研究 2007年第3期
[22]宋玉华,吴聃 从国际经济周期理论到世界经济周期理论 经济理论与经济管理2006年第3期
[23]宋玉华,徐前春 世界经济周期理论的文献述评 世界经济2004年第6期
[24]汤铎铎 三种频率选择滤波及其在中国的应用 数量经济技术经济研究2007年第9期
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[2]陈昆亭 龚六堂 中国经济增长的周期与波动的研究——引入人力资本后的RBC模型 经济学(季刊)2004年7月第3卷第4期
[3]陈昆亭 龚六堂 邹恒甫 什么造成了经济增长的波动,供给还是需求：中国经济的RBC分析 世界经济2004年第4期
[4]陈昆亭 周炎 龚六堂 中国经济周期波动特征分析：滤波方法的应用 世界经济2004年第10期
[5]陈昆亭 龚六堂 粘滞价格模型以及对中国经济是数值模拟——对基本RBC模型的改进 数量经济技术经济研究2006年第8期
[6]程传海 东亚经济协动的研究 亚太经济2007年第3期
[7]堵溢 孙宁华 基于RBC模型的动态随机一般均衡的数值解 经济数学2007年9月24卷第3期
[8]杜婷 国际贸易冲击与中国经济的周期波动 国际贸易问题2006年第12期
[9]杜婷 中国经济波动的典型事实 世界经济2007年第4期
[10]杜清源 龚六堂 带“金融加速器”的RBC模型金融研究 2005年第4期
[11]杜群阳 宋玉华 东亚经济周期与次区域经济周期存在性检验 国际贸易问题2005年第8期
[12]龚刚 实际商业周期：理论、检验与争议 经济学(季刊)2004年7月第3卷第4期
[13]何艳秋 中国经济与美、日经济波动的相关性研究 经济与管理2008年第7期
[14]黄赜琳 实际经济周期理论及其对中国的启发 经济问题2007年第7期
[15]贾俊雪 郭庆旺 开放经济条件下的中国经济周期波动特征 2007年第7期
[16]简泽 技术冲击、资本积累与经济波动——对实际经济周期理论的一个检
验统计研究2005年第11期
[17]李浩 胡永刚 马知遥 国际贸易与中国的实际经济周期——基于封闭与开放经济的RBC模型比较分析
[18]林秀丽 舒元 再议我国对美出口与美国GDP增长的相关性——基于协整分析和Granger因果检验 国际贸易问题 2005年第1期
[19]刘金全 张鹤 经济增长风险的冲击传导和经济周期波动的“溢出效应”经济研究2003年第10期
[20]钱士春 中国宏观经济波动实证分析：1952-2002统计研究2004年第4期
[21]宋玉华 高莉 世界经济周期的贸易传导机制 世界经济研究 2007年第3期
[22]宋玉华,吴聃 从国际经济周期理论到世界经济周期理论 经济理论与经济管理2006年第3期
[23]宋玉华,徐前春 世界经济周期理论的文献述评 世界经济2004年第6期
[24]汤铎铎 三种频率选择滤波及其在中国的应用 数量经济技术经济研究2007年第9期
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