中国在东亚经济波动中的稳定作用
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摘要
防范外部经济冲击、促进本地区经济稳定增长是东亚经济合作的重要目的。如何降低经济冲击的危害始终是东亚各国贸易合作和金融合作的重要议题。本文在经济波动理论的视角下对中国及东亚其他国家的经济波动进行考察,认为中国经济在面临经济冲击时与东亚其他国家经济的协同性较差,原因在于危机中的中国经济较东亚其他国家经济更为稳定。本文通过从中国经济增长对进口需求的拉动作用、中国在东亚分工体系中的地位、中国与东亚国家的贸易状况和中国人民币汇率四个角度进行分析,认为中国经济波动与东亚国家经济波动的不一致性具有积极意义,即中国在东亚面临经济冲击的时候能够起到良好的稳定作用。
The problems of the economy in East Asia are always hot issues. The scholars of the world research the question from lots of viewpoints. Such as the symmetry of economic shocks, the currency issues, the trade issues and so on. But the conclusions often are placed in the theory of OCA. Especially when facing the conclusion that the Chinese economic fluctuations are not synchronous with other countries, the scholars always explain it negatively. Surely, the cost of establishing the OCA is very high because of the asynchronous economic fluctuations. But the demand is rather harsh by now. If we can consider the situation from another perspective, we will find a positive consequence——China is a stabilizer in East Asia.
This paper can be divided into five parts.
Part1 is the introduction. To summarize the Literature Review and the reason why chose the topic. Then the writer points out the shortcomings and innovation.
In part2, the author analyzes the economic shocks of East Asia and obtains the result that China’s economic is more stable than other countries particularly in crisis. After using the H-P filter to filtrate the growth rate of the economy of the countries in East Asia, we can see the fluctuations are synchronous obviously. However, China is very different from other countries. The reason is that Chinese economy can keep high growth rate while facing the economic shocks. Of course, this phenomenon leads to the correlation between China and other countries low. In OCA theory, China is not comfortable to establish an OCA with other countries in East Asia. However, to carry out one currency policy is early. So we can change an angle of view to interrogate the role of China in East Asia.
In part 3, the author analysis the economic fluctuation of China, and compares the economic fluctuation of China in time series. After the reform and opening-up, the width of China’s economic fluctuation is smaller. By regression analysis,China’s economy growth depends on the growth of consumption of resident and the growth of the investment in the fixed assets chiefly. It’s happen to have the same views that the Chinese government often stimulates domestic demand when face to the crisis. The huge capacity of demand can help China resist the crisis and provide market to other countries in East Asia.
The fourth part is the focus of the full paper. This chapter analyzes of the factors of China play stabilizing role in East Asia. Firstly, the high growth rate of Chinese economy is the precondition and basement by which China can be the stabilizer in East Asia. The author uses the VAR Model to analyze the influence of the import, and thinks that the investment demands and the GDP growth influence the important obviously. Particularly, the former one plays an important part. Secondly, from the division of work of China in East Asia, the place of China has changed a lot. China is not the last goose in the theory of“the flying-geese model”, she is the center of the“New triangular trade”in East Asia. So China is the market supplier of East Asia gradually. On one hand , China brings about the optimize resource allocation. On the other hand, the new market supplier alters the situation that the U.S.A is the primary market supplier with the reduction of the export risk. The economy growth rate of the year 2001 and 2008 are the proofs. From the trade perspective, the level of trade between China and other countries is raising, China is now become a very important partner of the countries in East Asia. Lastly,from the prospect of RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate against the USD is very stable. With the economy place of China in East Asia lifting, the position of RMB is more and more significant. In the contrast, Yen’s fluctuation creates a very bad influence to the East Asia.
Part 5 is a summary and full text of revelation. The author believes that based on the analysis above, China should play a stabilizing role from itself. The so-called "inner" refers to China's own economic health still needs to maintain sustained and rapid development, which is a key factor to play the role of regional economic stability. The so-called "foreign" refers to China continue to deepen trade cooperation with East Asian countries, through trade channels will transport the strong demand to the East Asian countries. Accompanied by the growing influence of RMB against the U.S. dollar should continue to maintain exchange rate stability. Avoid repeating the yen-dollar exchange rate fluctuations have a negative impact on the East Asian economies in the past.
The problems of the economy in East Asia are always hot issues. The scholars of the world research the question from lots of viewpoints. Such as the symmetry of economic shocks, the currency issues, the trade issues and so on. But the conclusions often are placed in the theory of OCA. Especially when facing the conclusion that the Chinese economic fluctuations are not synchronous with other countries, the scholars always explain it negatively. Surely, the cost of establishing the OCA is very high because of the asynchronous economic fluctuations. But the demand is rather harsh by now. If we can consider the situation from another perspective, we will find a positive consequence——China is a stabilizer in East Asia.
This paper can be divided into five parts.
Part1 is the introduction. To summarize the Literature Review and the reason why chose the topic. Then the writer points out the shortcomings and innovation.
In part2, the author analyzes the economic shocks of East Asia and obtains the result that China’s economic is more stable than other countries particularly in crisis. After using the H-P filter to filtrate the growth rate of the economy of the countries in East Asia, we can see the fluctuations are synchronous obviously. However, China is very different from other countries. The reason is that Chinese economy can keep high growth rate while facing the economic shocks. Of course, this phenomenon leads to the correlation between China and other countries low. In OCA theory, China is not comfortable to establish an OCA with other countries in East Asia. However, to carry out one currency policy is early. So we can change an angle of view to interrogate the role of China in East Asia.
In part 3, the author analysis the economic fluctuation of China, and compares the economic fluctuation of China in time series. After the reform and opening-up, the width of China’s economic fluctuation is smaller. By regression analysis,China’s economy growth depends on the growth of consumption of resident and the growth of the investment in the fixed assets chiefly. It’s happen to have the same views that the Chinese government often stimulates domestic demand when face to the crisis. The huge capacity of demand can help China resist the crisis and provide market to other countries in East Asia.
The fourth part is the focus of the full paper. This chapter analyzes of the factors of China play stabilizing role in East Asia. Firstly, the high growth rate of Chinese economy is the precondition and basement by which China can be the stabilizer in East Asia. The author uses the VAR Model to analyze the influence of the import, and thinks that the investment demands and the GDP growth influence the important obviously. Particularly, the former one plays an important part. Secondly, from the division of work of China in East Asia, the place of China has changed a lot. China is not the last goose in the theory of“the flying-geese model”, she is the center of the“New triangular trade”in East Asia. So China is the market supplier of East Asia gradually. On one hand , China brings about the optimize resource allocation. On the other hand, the new market supplier alters the situation that the U.S.A is the primary market supplier with the reduction of the export risk. The economy growth rate of the year 2001 and 2008 are the proofs. From the trade perspective, the level of trade between China and other countries is raising, China is now become a very important partner of the countries in East Asia. Lastly,from the prospect of RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate against the USD is very stable. With the economy place of China in East Asia lifting, the position of RMB is more and more significant. In the contrast, Yen’s fluctuation creates a very bad influence to the East Asia.
Part 5 is a summary and full text of revelation. The author believes that based on the analysis above, China should play a stabilizing role from itself. The so-called "inner" refers to China's own economic health still needs to maintain sustained and rapid development, which is a key factor to play the role of regional economic stability. The so-called "foreign" refers to China continue to deepen trade cooperation with East Asian countries, through trade channels will transport the strong demand to the East Asian countries. Accompanied by the growing influence of RMB against the U.S. dollar should continue to maintain exchange rate stability. Avoid repeating the yen-dollar exchange rate fluctuations have a negative impact on the East Asian economies in the past.
引文
[1]黄赜琳.《实际经济周期与中国经济波动》,上海:上海财经大学出版社,20080年6月。
[2]贾俊雪.《中国经济周期波动特征及原因研究》,北京:中国金融出版社,2008年6月。
[3]李晓、戴金平主编.《21世纪初期东亚货币合作与人民币国际化》,长春:吉林大学出版社,2006年8月。
[4]刘崇仪等.《经济周期论》,北京:人民出版社,2006年6月。
[5]刘恒.《当代中国经济周期波动及形成机理研究》,成都:西南财经大学出版社,2003年3月。
[6]《世界发展指标》相关年份,北京:中国财政经济出版社。
[7]《新中国五十年统计资料汇编》,北京:中国统计出版社,2005年4月。
[8]《中国统计年鉴》相关年份,中国国家统计局网站。
[9] [美]奥利维尔·琼·布兰查得,斯坦利·费希尔.《宏观经济学高级教程》,北京:经济科学出版社1992年版,第336页。
[10] [美]哈勃勒.《繁荣与萧条》,商务印书馆,1963年版。
[11] [美]罗纳德·I·麦金农、贡特尔·施纳布尔.《东亚经济周期与汇率安排》,北京:中国金融出版社。
[1]陈小凡.最优货币区内生性假说“争议”探析——F&R内生性假说和Krugman专业化假说的对立与并存[J],当代财经,2006年第4期。
[2]杜群阳、宋玉华.东亚经济周期与次区域经济周期存在性检验[J],国际贸易问题,2005年第8期。
[3]李晓、丁一兵、李俊久.论人民币的亚洲化[J],世界经济,2004年第2期。
[4]李晓、丁一兵.人民币汇率变动趋势及其对区域货币合作的影响[J],国际金融研究,2009年第3期。
[5]李晓、丁一兵、秦婷婷.中国在东亚经济中地位的提升:基于贸易动向的考察[J],世界经济与政治论坛,2005年第5期。
[6]李晓、丁一兵.经济冲击对称性与区域经济合作:东亚与其他区域的比较研究[J],吉林大学社会科学学报,2006年第7期。
[7]颜国华、蔡宏波、林舒.东亚货币合作的经济基础——基于Frankel-Rose内生性假说的新检验[J],国际贸易问题,2008年第3期。
[8]薛敬孝、张兵.论东亚地区经济周期的同期性与非同期性[J],南开经济研究,2001年第4期。
[9]宋玉华,徐前春.世界经济周期理论的文献综述[J],世界经济,2004年第6期。
[10]王辉,车敏.有成本的价格调整与经济周期[J],南开经济研究,1999年第6期。
[11]钟伟,覃东海.商业周期理论的协动性和非对称性综述[J],世界经济,2003年第1期。
[12]祝丹涛,最优货币区批判性评析[J],世界经济,2005年第1期。
[1] Baxter.M. and Kouparitsas.M., Determinants of Business Cycle Comoveme-nt: A Robust Analysis., NBER Working Paper No.10725, 2004.
[2] Bayoumi.T. and Eichengreen,B.,Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification., Adjustment and Growth in European Moneytary Union.Cambri-dge,Cambridge University Press, 1993.
[3] Bayoumi.T. and Eichengreen.B., One money or many?Analyzing the prospe-cts for monetary unification in various parts ofthe world. Princeton, US: Pr-inceton University, Princeton Studies in International Finance,(16), 1994, Int-ernational Finance Section.
[4] Boehm.E. and Summers.P., Analysing and Forecasting Business Cycles withthe Aid of Economic Inditors. Melbourne Institute Working Paper, No.18/99,1999, pp.28-29.
[5] Daniel.B.C., The International Transmission Economic Disturbance under Fl-exible Exchange Rates.International Economic Review, 1981, 22(3): pp. 491-509.
[6] Dellas.A, Real Model of the World Business Cycle, Journal of InternationalMoney and Finance,(5), 1986, pp.381-394.
[7] Flemming.J., On Exchange Rate Unification, Economic Journal, 1971. Vol. 81, pp.467-88.
[8] Frankel.A. and Rose.K., The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria. The Economic Journal, 1998, 108(July), pp.1009-1025.
[9] Gaulier et al1, China’s Integration in East Asia. Production Sharing , FDI &High-Tech Trade. CEPII Working Paper, 2005 (9).
[10] Ingram.J., Regional Payments Mechanisms:The Case of Puerto Rico, ChapelHill: University of North Carolina Press, 1962.
[11] Kenen.P.B., the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas:An Eclectic View, In Funeral Problems of the International Economy,Chicago,University of Chica-go Press, 1969.
[12] Kent.C., The response of the current account to terms of trade shocks: A panel date study. Research Discussion Paper No.9705, Reserve Bank of Au-stralia, 1997.
[13]“Key indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2009”, Mandaluyong City,Philip-pines: Asian Development Bank, 2009.
[14] Krugman.p., Lessons of Massachusetts for EMU.[C].in Francisco Torres andFrancesco Giavazzi(eds.), Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press and CEPR, 1993:pp241-261.
[15] Kwan.Chi-Hung.,Yen Bloc:Toward Economic Integration in Asia, Brooings Institution Washington.D.C.,2001.
[16] Loayza.N., Lopez.H and Ubide.A., Comovement and Macroeconomic Interd-ependence: Evidence For Latin America, East Asia, And Europe. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers. 2003.
[17] Mckinnon,R., Optimum Currency Areas,American Economic Review 1963,53:717-725.
[18] McKinnon.R and Schnabl.G., China:A Stabilizing or Deflationary Influence in East Asia? The Problem of Conflicted Virtue.Working Paper, Paper provi-ded by Stanford University, 2003, Department of Economics in its series W-orking Papers.
[19] Mendoza.E.G., The terms of trade, the real exchange rate and economic fl-uctuations. International Economic Review, 1995, 36(1), pp.101–137.
[20] Mitchell.W.C., Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting. NEBR, 1927,New York.
[21] Mundell.R.A., A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, American Economic Review, 1961, Vol151.
[22] Oskar.M., International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles.1959, N-EBR, New York.
[23] Otto.G, Terms of trade shocks and the balance of trade: there is a Harberg-er-Laursen-Metzler effect,”Journal of International Money and Finance, 20-03, pp155-154.
[24] Pigou.A.C., Industrial Fluetuations. London Macmillan.Co.Ltd., 2007.
[25] Ravn.M., International Business Cycle in Theory and in Practice. Journal ofInternational Money and Finance.,1997.,16(2)., pp.255-283.
[26] Saidi.N., Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the International Transmission of Economic Disturbances, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 12, No.4, Part 1 (Nov.,1980), pp.575-591.
[27] Sato.K, Zhaoyong Zhang, Michael McAleer, Shocking Aspects of East Asi-an Monetary Integration: An Optimum Currency Area Approach,Center for International Trade Studies(CITS) Working Papers,2003.
[28] Slutsky.E., The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclic pro-cess.”., Econometrica 5, 1937, pp.105-146.
[29] Tower.E and Thomas. D., The Concept of Optimum Currency Areas and t-he Choice Between Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates, in Approaches to Greater Flexibility of Exchange rates, The Birkenstock edited by George N.Halm, Princeton University Press, 1970, pp.407-415.
[2]贾俊雪.《中国经济周期波动特征及原因研究》,北京:中国金融出版社,2008年6月。
[3]李晓、戴金平主编.《21世纪初期东亚货币合作与人民币国际化》,长春:吉林大学出版社,2006年8月。
[4]刘崇仪等.《经济周期论》,北京:人民出版社,2006年6月。
[5]刘恒.《当代中国经济周期波动及形成机理研究》,成都:西南财经大学出版社,2003年3月。
[6]《世界发展指标》相关年份,北京:中国财政经济出版社。
[7]《新中国五十年统计资料汇编》,北京:中国统计出版社,2005年4月。
[8]《中国统计年鉴》相关年份,中国国家统计局网站。
[9] [美]奥利维尔·琼·布兰查得,斯坦利·费希尔.《宏观经济学高级教程》,北京:经济科学出版社1992年版,第336页。
[10] [美]哈勃勒.《繁荣与萧条》,商务印书馆,1963年版。
[11] [美]罗纳德·I·麦金农、贡特尔·施纳布尔.《东亚经济周期与汇率安排》,北京:中国金融出版社。
[1]陈小凡.最优货币区内生性假说“争议”探析——F&R内生性假说和Krugman专业化假说的对立与并存[J],当代财经,2006年第4期。
[2]杜群阳、宋玉华.东亚经济周期与次区域经济周期存在性检验[J],国际贸易问题,2005年第8期。
[3]李晓、丁一兵、李俊久.论人民币的亚洲化[J],世界经济,2004年第2期。
[4]李晓、丁一兵.人民币汇率变动趋势及其对区域货币合作的影响[J],国际金融研究,2009年第3期。
[5]李晓、丁一兵、秦婷婷.中国在东亚经济中地位的提升:基于贸易动向的考察[J],世界经济与政治论坛,2005年第5期。
[6]李晓、丁一兵.经济冲击对称性与区域经济合作:东亚与其他区域的比较研究[J],吉林大学社会科学学报,2006年第7期。
[7]颜国华、蔡宏波、林舒.东亚货币合作的经济基础——基于Frankel-Rose内生性假说的新检验[J],国际贸易问题,2008年第3期。
[8]薛敬孝、张兵.论东亚地区经济周期的同期性与非同期性[J],南开经济研究,2001年第4期。
[9]宋玉华,徐前春.世界经济周期理论的文献综述[J],世界经济,2004年第6期。
[10]王辉,车敏.有成本的价格调整与经济周期[J],南开经济研究,1999年第6期。
[11]钟伟,覃东海.商业周期理论的协动性和非对称性综述[J],世界经济,2003年第1期。
[12]祝丹涛,最优货币区批判性评析[J],世界经济,2005年第1期。
[1] Baxter.M. and Kouparitsas.M., Determinants of Business Cycle Comoveme-nt: A Robust Analysis., NBER Working Paper No.10725, 2004.
[2] Bayoumi.T. and Eichengreen,B.,Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification., Adjustment and Growth in European Moneytary Union.Cambri-dge,Cambridge University Press, 1993.
[3] Bayoumi.T. and Eichengreen.B., One money or many?Analyzing the prospe-cts for monetary unification in various parts ofthe world. Princeton, US: Pr-inceton University, Princeton Studies in International Finance,(16), 1994, Int-ernational Finance Section.
[4] Boehm.E. and Summers.P., Analysing and Forecasting Business Cycles withthe Aid of Economic Inditors. Melbourne Institute Working Paper, No.18/99,1999, pp.28-29.
[5] Daniel.B.C., The International Transmission Economic Disturbance under Fl-exible Exchange Rates.International Economic Review, 1981, 22(3): pp. 491-509.
[6] Dellas.A, Real Model of the World Business Cycle, Journal of InternationalMoney and Finance,(5), 1986, pp.381-394.
[7] Flemming.J., On Exchange Rate Unification, Economic Journal, 1971. Vol. 81, pp.467-88.
[8] Frankel.A. and Rose.K., The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria. The Economic Journal, 1998, 108(July), pp.1009-1025.
[9] Gaulier et al1, China’s Integration in East Asia. Production Sharing , FDI &High-Tech Trade. CEPII Working Paper, 2005 (9).
[10] Ingram.J., Regional Payments Mechanisms:The Case of Puerto Rico, ChapelHill: University of North Carolina Press, 1962.
[11] Kenen.P.B., the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas:An Eclectic View, In Funeral Problems of the International Economy,Chicago,University of Chica-go Press, 1969.
[12] Kent.C., The response of the current account to terms of trade shocks: A panel date study. Research Discussion Paper No.9705, Reserve Bank of Au-stralia, 1997.
[13]“Key indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2009”, Mandaluyong City,Philip-pines: Asian Development Bank, 2009.
[14] Krugman.p., Lessons of Massachusetts for EMU.[C].in Francisco Torres andFrancesco Giavazzi(eds.), Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press and CEPR, 1993:pp241-261.
[15] Kwan.Chi-Hung.,Yen Bloc:Toward Economic Integration in Asia, Brooings Institution Washington.D.C.,2001.
[16] Loayza.N., Lopez.H and Ubide.A., Comovement and Macroeconomic Interd-ependence: Evidence For Latin America, East Asia, And Europe. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers. 2003.
[17] Mckinnon,R., Optimum Currency Areas,American Economic Review 1963,53:717-725.
[18] McKinnon.R and Schnabl.G., China:A Stabilizing or Deflationary Influence in East Asia? The Problem of Conflicted Virtue.Working Paper, Paper provi-ded by Stanford University, 2003, Department of Economics in its series W-orking Papers.
[19] Mendoza.E.G., The terms of trade, the real exchange rate and economic fl-uctuations. International Economic Review, 1995, 36(1), pp.101–137.
[20] Mitchell.W.C., Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting. NEBR, 1927,New York.
[21] Mundell.R.A., A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, American Economic Review, 1961, Vol151.
[22] Oskar.M., International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles.1959, N-EBR, New York.
[23] Otto.G, Terms of trade shocks and the balance of trade: there is a Harberg-er-Laursen-Metzler effect,”Journal of International Money and Finance, 20-03, pp155-154.
[24] Pigou.A.C., Industrial Fluetuations. London Macmillan.Co.Ltd., 2007.
[25] Ravn.M., International Business Cycle in Theory and in Practice. Journal ofInternational Money and Finance.,1997.,16(2)., pp.255-283.
[26] Saidi.N., Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the International Transmission of Economic Disturbances, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 12, No.4, Part 1 (Nov.,1980), pp.575-591.
[27] Sato.K, Zhaoyong Zhang, Michael McAleer, Shocking Aspects of East Asi-an Monetary Integration: An Optimum Currency Area Approach,Center for International Trade Studies(CITS) Working Papers,2003.
[28] Slutsky.E., The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclic pro-cess.”., Econometrica 5, 1937, pp.105-146.
[29] Tower.E and Thomas. D., The Concept of Optimum Currency Areas and t-he Choice Between Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates, in Approaches to Greater Flexibility of Exchange rates, The Birkenstock edited by George N.Halm, Princeton University Press, 1970, pp.407-415.