基于PEST的中国企业信息系统宏观成长过程研究
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摘要
本文通过大量资料整理和数据归类,从宏观层面上总结了中国企业信息系统成长过程模型,以PEST分析法为基础,从经济、技术、政策及社会角度阐述了中国企业信息系统成长过程机理框架。在深入分析了信息技术扩散过程、经济增长过程、信息政策体系框架完善过程和社会变革过程的基础上,运用Granger影响关系检验、协整检验、ARMA模型进行数量分析,论证了各种环境因素对信息系统成长作用的不同,证明了TEPS模型的正确性。本文最后通过对TEPS机理模型的总结,从信息技术领域、经济领域、政策领域及社会发展领域提出了促进信息系统成长的建议。
以往对于信息系统成长过程的研究,不论是从管理角度还是从技术角度,通常可用企业信息化发展模型、企业信息化演变模型、企业信息技术采纳模型、企业信息系统扩散模型等来描述,但它们的基础理论都来自于国外规律的总结。这种模型与中国信息系统成长规律是否具有一致性,外部影响因素又是如何作用于信息系统成长过程的,在以往研究成果并不多见,而这正是本文所解决的问题。这部分研究成果对我国企业信息系统持续性成长具有实践指导意义。同时,对丰富和完善信息系统成长理论具有很大的理论价值。
The problem of Chinese enterprise information system growth is arising in the economic globalization, information technology revolution, China's social change and the development of information management specialty.
Researches on Growth process of information system in the past, both from a management point or from a technical point, included many models such as enterprise information development model, enterprise information evolution model, enterprise information technology adoption model, enterprise information system diffusion model. But no matter what kind of formulation its basic theories come from abroad. Whether these models fit to the growth of China's information system, how the external factors affect on the information system growth process, are the problems which this paper will solve. These results give a practice-oriented to China's sustained growth in enterprise information system. Meanwhile, with the development of information technology, China's higher institutions pay more attention to education of information management and information system professional, but the growth model of information system is lack of theoretical models in line with China's national conditions. Therefore, this paper enriches and completes this part of the great theoretical value.
The mainly theoretical basis in this article is growth theory of information systems. Technical innovation theory is introduced on the basis, gray relation theory and the theory of policy intervention as a support to complete the follow-up quantitative analysis of information technology innovation, economic growth and policies. In information systems theory, to describe information systems development process is the growth of information systems theory, and most of Nolan model is anchored, it is the mainstream of information systems theory. Stages of growth model which is chosen as the main article theory is based on this reason. Nolan model is the first description of the abstract stages of development information system model, epoch-making significance. However, the background of Nolan model is developed countries like the United States, while there are so many differences between the developing conditions like China and developed countries. In recent years the level of development and growth are also different, degrees of informationization is different, and these resulted in reduction of such comparability. The current Chinese enterprises application of information systems is not quite the case law. Weather this model fit to such a rapid development in China is expected to solve in this paper. In addition, because Nolan stage model theory has some flaws such as the unification of the internal mechanism of the growth process of information system, so the whole system renovation is much difficult to comment on the guidance value.
Information system growth is a phased process of progressive development and evolution. The previous stage is a foundation one, the after stage is a sublimation one. Meanwhile, the information system growth is the result of many internal and external factors of enterprises. Only by fully grasp the environment can we establish information systems development strategy more effectively. Therefore, the information system growth can be studied from the micro-environment within the enterprise or available from the external environment. The object of this article is positioned in the information system development on the macro level.
This paper summarized the growth process model of China's enterprise information system based on a large number of data compilation, then analyzed the model features. China's enterprise information system growth mechanism framework is promoted based on economic, technical, policy and social point of PEST analysis. In depth analysis of information technology diffusion process, the economic growth process, the information policy framework improving process and the social change process , TEPS model is been proved correctness based on the quantitative analysis of Granger causality test, co integration test and ARMA model. At last this paper promoted some proposals on the growth of information system from the information technology field, the economic field, policy areas and the area of social development based on the TEPS mechanism model.
This paper is divided into nine chapters.
The first chapter is introduction, which described the background, cleared the research proposal, research content, research method, and arranged the overall structure of the paper.
The second chapter reviews the research theoretical basis of this paper, including the growth theory of information systems, theory of diffusion of information technology, the gray system theory and the theory of policy intervention. This part summarized the status of information systems development research, defined information systems, information systems development, macro-growth of information systems and other basic concepts of this thesis.
The third chapter summed up the growing enterprise information system model through analysis in the process of growth in some industries .Based on PEST theory, expounded initial model named TEPS on China's growing mechanism of enterprise information system framework from economic, technical, policy and social point of view.
Chapter IV analyzed China's information technology diffusion starting from the diffusion of information technology, qualitatively described the relationship between diffusion of information technology and information systems growth. Then this paper proved strong associations between them from the curve fitting quantitative analysis.
Chapter V analyzed the law of China's economic growth, and compared with the information system growth curves. This part proved the correlation between the economic growth and information systems growth using Granger model calculation, completed fitting degree quantitative terms, gave a detailed explanation on the economic growth and information systems growth.
Chapter VI analyzed the development process of China's information policy, comparative study of the foreign policy framework with the similarities and differences, then giving a basic content description of China's information policy system. After describing the model of policy intervention by China's information policy of quantitative research on the impact of the growth of information systems, explained the trend of the information policy and the relevance of information systems development.
Chapter VII, from the perspective of social change, qualitatively described the influence changes in the process of information system growth from economic globalization trend, information technology trend and changes in social and cultural. It analyzed the process of the changes in Chinese society affecting information systems development.
Chapter VIII summarized the role of TEPS mechanism model of information system development process, discussed the formation of TEPS model, and gave some advice on promoting the growth of information systems from information technology, economy, policy and the area of social development.
Chapter IX summarized the research process, innovations, the main conclusions and the prospects for future research.
Innovations of this paper include:
(1) This paper put forward the concept of information system macro-growth process based on PEST analysis.Then it established information system macro-growth process five-stage model. The information system macro-growth process mechanism model was created in an innovative way. Gray correlation analysis was used to prove that the model is reasonable.
(2) From the perspective of diffusion of information technology,this paper summed up the development process of China's information technology in an innovative way. Qualitative analysis was used to introuduce the technical characteristics of each period, the application process in enterprise and industry. The article built an information technology growth curve, and proved it’s high-fitting to the information systems growth curve.
(3) The article established the China's economic growth curve. Through cointegration analysi show that there is a strong correlation relationship between the growth of China's information systems and economic growth. Point of long-term stability equilibrium relationship between them was proposed, and revealed the interaction process between them.
(4) This article summarized the characteristics of information policy in Japan, the United States, the European Union and Russia from unique perspective. Introduction of intervention models innovative to constructe the four groups of policy intervention model in which 1998, 2001, 2005 and 2008 as the cut-off point.Through the analysis of model parameters revealed the degree of the policy impact and explained the reasons of different role time.
(5) This paper summarized our social change causes, and put forward the point that social change assistance information system development in an innovative way.This paper made an deep study from three apart that the economic system reform force information systems development, information values change spur information systems development, information needs changes created conditions for growth.
(6) In this paper, relevant recommendations were promoted in fields of information technology, economy, policy and social development.These proposal have a practical significance in guiding planning, analysis, designing and implementation of enterprise information systems.There are some reference values in building our information systems.
以往对于信息系统成长过程的研究,不论是从管理角度还是从技术角度,通常可用企业信息化发展模型、企业信息化演变模型、企业信息技术采纳模型、企业信息系统扩散模型等来描述,但它们的基础理论都来自于国外规律的总结。这种模型与中国信息系统成长规律是否具有一致性,外部影响因素又是如何作用于信息系统成长过程的,在以往研究成果并不多见,而这正是本文所解决的问题。这部分研究成果对我国企业信息系统持续性成长具有实践指导意义。同时,对丰富和完善信息系统成长理论具有很大的理论价值。
The problem of Chinese enterprise information system growth is arising in the economic globalization, information technology revolution, China's social change and the development of information management specialty.
Researches on Growth process of information system in the past, both from a management point or from a technical point, included many models such as enterprise information development model, enterprise information evolution model, enterprise information technology adoption model, enterprise information system diffusion model. But no matter what kind of formulation its basic theories come from abroad. Whether these models fit to the growth of China's information system, how the external factors affect on the information system growth process, are the problems which this paper will solve. These results give a practice-oriented to China's sustained growth in enterprise information system. Meanwhile, with the development of information technology, China's higher institutions pay more attention to education of information management and information system professional, but the growth model of information system is lack of theoretical models in line with China's national conditions. Therefore, this paper enriches and completes this part of the great theoretical value.
The mainly theoretical basis in this article is growth theory of information systems. Technical innovation theory is introduced on the basis, gray relation theory and the theory of policy intervention as a support to complete the follow-up quantitative analysis of information technology innovation, economic growth and policies. In information systems theory, to describe information systems development process is the growth of information systems theory, and most of Nolan model is anchored, it is the mainstream of information systems theory. Stages of growth model which is chosen as the main article theory is based on this reason. Nolan model is the first description of the abstract stages of development information system model, epoch-making significance. However, the background of Nolan model is developed countries like the United States, while there are so many differences between the developing conditions like China and developed countries. In recent years the level of development and growth are also different, degrees of informationization is different, and these resulted in reduction of such comparability. The current Chinese enterprises application of information systems is not quite the case law. Weather this model fit to such a rapid development in China is expected to solve in this paper. In addition, because Nolan stage model theory has some flaws such as the unification of the internal mechanism of the growth process of information system, so the whole system renovation is much difficult to comment on the guidance value.
Information system growth is a phased process of progressive development and evolution. The previous stage is a foundation one, the after stage is a sublimation one. Meanwhile, the information system growth is the result of many internal and external factors of enterprises. Only by fully grasp the environment can we establish information systems development strategy more effectively. Therefore, the information system growth can be studied from the micro-environment within the enterprise or available from the external environment. The object of this article is positioned in the information system development on the macro level.
This paper summarized the growth process model of China's enterprise information system based on a large number of data compilation, then analyzed the model features. China's enterprise information system growth mechanism framework is promoted based on economic, technical, policy and social point of PEST analysis. In depth analysis of information technology diffusion process, the economic growth process, the information policy framework improving process and the social change process , TEPS model is been proved correctness based on the quantitative analysis of Granger causality test, co integration test and ARMA model. At last this paper promoted some proposals on the growth of information system from the information technology field, the economic field, policy areas and the area of social development based on the TEPS mechanism model.
This paper is divided into nine chapters.
The first chapter is introduction, which described the background, cleared the research proposal, research content, research method, and arranged the overall structure of the paper.
The second chapter reviews the research theoretical basis of this paper, including the growth theory of information systems, theory of diffusion of information technology, the gray system theory and the theory of policy intervention. This part summarized the status of information systems development research, defined information systems, information systems development, macro-growth of information systems and other basic concepts of this thesis.
The third chapter summed up the growing enterprise information system model through analysis in the process of growth in some industries .Based on PEST theory, expounded initial model named TEPS on China's growing mechanism of enterprise information system framework from economic, technical, policy and social point of view.
Chapter IV analyzed China's information technology diffusion starting from the diffusion of information technology, qualitatively described the relationship between diffusion of information technology and information systems growth. Then this paper proved strong associations between them from the curve fitting quantitative analysis.
Chapter V analyzed the law of China's economic growth, and compared with the information system growth curves. This part proved the correlation between the economic growth and information systems growth using Granger model calculation, completed fitting degree quantitative terms, gave a detailed explanation on the economic growth and information systems growth.
Chapter VI analyzed the development process of China's information policy, comparative study of the foreign policy framework with the similarities and differences, then giving a basic content description of China's information policy system. After describing the model of policy intervention by China's information policy of quantitative research on the impact of the growth of information systems, explained the trend of the information policy and the relevance of information systems development.
Chapter VII, from the perspective of social change, qualitatively described the influence changes in the process of information system growth from economic globalization trend, information technology trend and changes in social and cultural. It analyzed the process of the changes in Chinese society affecting information systems development.
Chapter VIII summarized the role of TEPS mechanism model of information system development process, discussed the formation of TEPS model, and gave some advice on promoting the growth of information systems from information technology, economy, policy and the area of social development.
Chapter IX summarized the research process, innovations, the main conclusions and the prospects for future research.
Innovations of this paper include:
(1) This paper put forward the concept of information system macro-growth process based on PEST analysis.Then it established information system macro-growth process five-stage model. The information system macro-growth process mechanism model was created in an innovative way. Gray correlation analysis was used to prove that the model is reasonable.
(2) From the perspective of diffusion of information technology,this paper summed up the development process of China's information technology in an innovative way. Qualitative analysis was used to introuduce the technical characteristics of each period, the application process in enterprise and industry. The article built an information technology growth curve, and proved it’s high-fitting to the information systems growth curve.
(3) The article established the China's economic growth curve. Through cointegration analysi show that there is a strong correlation relationship between the growth of China's information systems and economic growth. Point of long-term stability equilibrium relationship between them was proposed, and revealed the interaction process between them.
(4) This article summarized the characteristics of information policy in Japan, the United States, the European Union and Russia from unique perspective. Introduction of intervention models innovative to constructe the four groups of policy intervention model in which 1998, 2001, 2005 and 2008 as the cut-off point.Through the analysis of model parameters revealed the degree of the policy impact and explained the reasons of different role time.
(5) This paper summarized our social change causes, and put forward the point that social change assistance information system development in an innovative way.This paper made an deep study from three apart that the economic system reform force information systems development, information values change spur information systems development, information needs changes created conditions for growth.
(6) In this paper, relevant recommendations were promoted in fields of information technology, economy, policy and social development.These proposal have a practical significance in guiding planning, analysis, designing and implementation of enterprise information systems.There are some reference values in building our information systems.
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