基于水资源可再生性评价的大连市水资源合理配置研究
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摘要
水资源短缺在不同程度上阻滞了经济社会发展,破坏了生态系统稳定,甚至引起了水事冲突。而解决这一系列问题的根本出路在于增加水资源的可再生量,并在遵循公平、高效和可持续利用的原则下,合理配置有限水资源。本文以水资源供需矛盾突出的大连市为研究对象,研究了水资源可再生性综合评价指标体系的构建及其评价方法、水资源可再生性提高的措施研究(包括社会水循环措施实施的可行性分析、作物种植结构优化和水资源合理配置)以及社会水循环措施实施后的效果评价。全文的主要研究内容和成果如下:
(1)水资源可再生性综合评价的指标体系与方法研究。基于大连市水资源可再生性的特点,从水资源自然可再生性和社会可再生性两方面出发,建立了水资源可再生性综合评价的多层次多指标体系,并采用物理分析和数学计算相结合的方法分析了指标间的相关性;根据所建指标体系的特点,应用了多层次多指标可变模糊模式识别模型进行评价,采用组合权重法确定了指标权重;同时引入了投影寻踪模型进行评价,并对两种模型的评价结果进行了比较分析;以大连市1998～2007年水资源可再生性评价为例,分别应用上述两种方法对其进行评价。结果表明,两种方法所得评价结果基本一致,投影寻踪模型仅给出了各样本的排序结果;而可变模糊模式识别模型不仅能对评价样本进行排序,而且其级别特征值能直接给出样本的评价等级,结果更为直观。
(2)实施社会水循环措施的可行性分析。从定性描述和定量分析两方面概述了大连市在节水方面所取得的成就、存在的问题以及节水潜力,在中水、海水等非传统水源利用方面的现状及其供水潜力,以及跨流域调水工程的实施条件和供水潜力;并与在节水、非传统水源和跨流域调水使用等方面处于领先水平的国内外城市进行了对比分析,为下文的水资源可再生性提高途径研究提供了现实依据。
(3)作物种植结构优化及其方案的合理性评价。以实现地区经济、社会和生态效益三者综合效益最大为目标,建立多目标作物种植结构优化模型;并针对模型构建中的模糊性,将交互式模糊优化算法应用于求解该模型;应用模糊数学理论、耗散结构和协同学理论,建立了基于相对有序度熵的作物种植布局合理性评价模型,以评价种植结构优化方案的合理性;以大连市规划水平年2020年和2030年作物种植结构优化为实例,验证了优化与评价模型的可行性。另外,与已有作物种植结构优化模型相比,二者所得优化结果基本一致,该模型适用于实时阶段的作物种植优化,而本文模型适用于规划设计阶段。
(4)多目标模糊水资源合理配置研究。针对参数预测中的模糊性,以及水量分配中的模糊相关性,用模糊数来描述参数的预测值;应用模糊相关机会多目标规划,以城镇生活等6类用水部门需水要求被满足的可能性最大以及总供水成本不超过期望值的可能性最大为目标函数,建立多目标模糊水资源合理配置模型;应用基于模糊模拟的遗传算法来获取满意的水资源配置方案;以规划水平年2020年和2030年水资源合理配置为实例,验证了模型与求解算法的可行性。应用该模型,可通过设置不同的α值,直接获取决策者偏好下的满意水资源配置方案,其可看做是优化模型与评价模型的有机结合体;另外,与预测值为梯形模糊数以及正态模糊数相比,三种模糊数下所得最优解基本一致,这说明不同隶属函数形式的模糊数对配置结果影响不大。
(5)评价了社会水循环措施实施后的水资源可再生性强弱的变化。以第五章所获得的满意水资源配置方案为基础,应用第二章所提出的评价模型与方法,进行了社会水循环措施实施后的水资源社会可再生性评价。结果表明节水、非传统水源推广使用和跨流域调水等社会水循环措施对于提高水资源社会可再生性是有效可行的:敏感性分析结果表明,影响水资源社会可再生性的因素,依次为外调水利用、中水回用、城镇生活节水、海水直接利用、海水淡化、农业节水、工业节水;在实际工作中,对于敏感性较强的水循环措施,应加强其保障措施的研究,确保其能够顺利实施。
The issue of water shortage limits the rapid development of a city, brings on the deteriora tion of environment system, and even causes water affair conflicts. However, one of the most efficient ways of handling such issue is to increase the renewable volume of water resources, and to optimally allocate the water resources to users. The dissertation takes Dalian City as study domain, studies the construction of integrated indexes system and approach for assessing water renewal; the measures of improving water renewal involving the feasibility of performing social water cycle measures, crop pattern optimization and water resources allocation; and the assessment of action of the carried measures. The main contents and conclusions are summarized as follows.
(1) Integrated indexes system and approaches for assessing water renewal. From the viewpoint of the characteristic of water renewal of Dalian City and the thought of "natural-social" binary water cycle, the integrated indexes system is developed, and subjective as well as objective correlate analysis approaches are used to get rid of the correlative indexes.Then the fuzzy pattern recognition model is selected to ascertain the state of water renewal based on the fuzziness and interval numbers existing in the integrated indexes system, and the combined approach is used to determine weights. Finally the indexes system and assessment model are applied to Dalian City to gain its state of water renewal, natural water renewal and social water renewal between the year 1998 and 2007. Moreover, the projection persuit model is also used to assess water renewal, and its result is is consistent with that of fuzzy pattern recognition model; this further tests the efficiency of the two models.
(2) Feasibility analysis of the social water cycle measures. The chapter takes Dalian City as example, and then analyzes the achievements, existing problems and potential in water-saving, the actuality and potential in use of reclaimed grey water, seawater as well as desalted seawater, and the precondition and potential of the trans-basin water works. Furthermore, the comparison between Dalian city and other cities which gain achievements in water-saving, use of non-traditional water type and trans-basin water works; this expects to support practical proofs to the following research.
(3) Crop pattern optimization under fuzzy environment and assessment to crop pattern schemes. The water-saving irrigation mode and corresponding crop pattern optimization are crucial to the improvement of social water renewal. The multi-objective crop pattern optimization model is developed, with three objectives of maximizing economic, social as well as environmental benefit. And the interactive fuzzy multi-objective optimization approach is used to gain the satisfactory crop pattern schemes according to decision makers' perferences. Then an assessment model by combining fuzzy set theory and entropy theory is proposed to gain the optimal crop pattern scheme. The optimization and assessment models are both used to Dalian City for obtain its crop pattern scheme in the planning years 2020 and 2030. Finally the model proposed by Chen is also used, and its result is is consistent with that of my model; this further tests the efficiency of the two models.
(4) Water resources allocation under fuzzy environment. Considering the fuzziness existing in parameters prediction, and the fuzzy dependence in allocating water to different users, fuzzy numbers are used to represent the predicted values, and a fuzzy multi-objective water allocation model is proposed based on the methodology of fuzzy dependent multi-objective programming, and then the hybrid algorithm of combining fuzzy simulation technology as well as genetic algorithm is used to obtain the satisfactory water allocation schemes. Finally the model and solution algorithm are applied to Dalian City to obtain the satisfactory water resources allocation schemes in the planning years 2020 and 2030. By using the model, the "economic" type,"safe" type and "trade-off' type schemes can be directly gained via setting different cutting level. Moreover, predicted values of trapezoidal fuzzy number and normal fuzzy number representation are also used, and the results are consistent with each other; this illustrates that the membership function of fuzzy number has little influence on the optimal solution.
(5) Assessment of social water cycle measures implement. The chapter takes Dalian as example, and analyzes the effect of those series of social water cycle measures. The corresponding indexes values are obtained from the water resources allocation schemes of Chapter 5, and the indexes system and assessment approach are used to assess the state of social water renewal of the planning years 2020 and 2030. The results imply that the social water cycle measures are efficient and effective for improving the state of social water renewal; and sensitivity analysis results illustrate that trans-basin works, grey water reclamation, water-saving of urban living, direct use of seawater, seawater desalt, water-saving of agriculture, water-saving of industy are the factors influencing social renewal in sequence.
(1)水资源可再生性综合评价的指标体系与方法研究。基于大连市水资源可再生性的特点,从水资源自然可再生性和社会可再生性两方面出发,建立了水资源可再生性综合评价的多层次多指标体系,并采用物理分析和数学计算相结合的方法分析了指标间的相关性;根据所建指标体系的特点,应用了多层次多指标可变模糊模式识别模型进行评价,采用组合权重法确定了指标权重;同时引入了投影寻踪模型进行评价,并对两种模型的评价结果进行了比较分析;以大连市1998～2007年水资源可再生性评价为例,分别应用上述两种方法对其进行评价。结果表明,两种方法所得评价结果基本一致,投影寻踪模型仅给出了各样本的排序结果;而可变模糊模式识别模型不仅能对评价样本进行排序,而且其级别特征值能直接给出样本的评价等级,结果更为直观。
(2)实施社会水循环措施的可行性分析。从定性描述和定量分析两方面概述了大连市在节水方面所取得的成就、存在的问题以及节水潜力,在中水、海水等非传统水源利用方面的现状及其供水潜力,以及跨流域调水工程的实施条件和供水潜力;并与在节水、非传统水源和跨流域调水使用等方面处于领先水平的国内外城市进行了对比分析,为下文的水资源可再生性提高途径研究提供了现实依据。
(3)作物种植结构优化及其方案的合理性评价。以实现地区经济、社会和生态效益三者综合效益最大为目标,建立多目标作物种植结构优化模型;并针对模型构建中的模糊性,将交互式模糊优化算法应用于求解该模型;应用模糊数学理论、耗散结构和协同学理论,建立了基于相对有序度熵的作物种植布局合理性评价模型,以评价种植结构优化方案的合理性;以大连市规划水平年2020年和2030年作物种植结构优化为实例,验证了优化与评价模型的可行性。另外,与已有作物种植结构优化模型相比,二者所得优化结果基本一致,该模型适用于实时阶段的作物种植优化,而本文模型适用于规划设计阶段。
(4)多目标模糊水资源合理配置研究。针对参数预测中的模糊性,以及水量分配中的模糊相关性,用模糊数来描述参数的预测值;应用模糊相关机会多目标规划,以城镇生活等6类用水部门需水要求被满足的可能性最大以及总供水成本不超过期望值的可能性最大为目标函数,建立多目标模糊水资源合理配置模型;应用基于模糊模拟的遗传算法来获取满意的水资源配置方案;以规划水平年2020年和2030年水资源合理配置为实例,验证了模型与求解算法的可行性。应用该模型,可通过设置不同的α值,直接获取决策者偏好下的满意水资源配置方案,其可看做是优化模型与评价模型的有机结合体;另外,与预测值为梯形模糊数以及正态模糊数相比,三种模糊数下所得最优解基本一致,这说明不同隶属函数形式的模糊数对配置结果影响不大。
(5)评价了社会水循环措施实施后的水资源可再生性强弱的变化。以第五章所获得的满意水资源配置方案为基础,应用第二章所提出的评价模型与方法,进行了社会水循环措施实施后的水资源社会可再生性评价。结果表明节水、非传统水源推广使用和跨流域调水等社会水循环措施对于提高水资源社会可再生性是有效可行的:敏感性分析结果表明,影响水资源社会可再生性的因素,依次为外调水利用、中水回用、城镇生活节水、海水直接利用、海水淡化、农业节水、工业节水;在实际工作中,对于敏感性较强的水循环措施,应加强其保障措施的研究,确保其能够顺利实施。
The issue of water shortage limits the rapid development of a city, brings on the deteriora tion of environment system, and even causes water affair conflicts. However, one of the most efficient ways of handling such issue is to increase the renewable volume of water resources, and to optimally allocate the water resources to users. The dissertation takes Dalian City as study domain, studies the construction of integrated indexes system and approach for assessing water renewal; the measures of improving water renewal involving the feasibility of performing social water cycle measures, crop pattern optimization and water resources allocation; and the assessment of action of the carried measures. The main contents and conclusions are summarized as follows.
(1) Integrated indexes system and approaches for assessing water renewal. From the viewpoint of the characteristic of water renewal of Dalian City and the thought of "natural-social" binary water cycle, the integrated indexes system is developed, and subjective as well as objective correlate analysis approaches are used to get rid of the correlative indexes.Then the fuzzy pattern recognition model is selected to ascertain the state of water renewal based on the fuzziness and interval numbers existing in the integrated indexes system, and the combined approach is used to determine weights. Finally the indexes system and assessment model are applied to Dalian City to gain its state of water renewal, natural water renewal and social water renewal between the year 1998 and 2007. Moreover, the projection persuit model is also used to assess water renewal, and its result is is consistent with that of fuzzy pattern recognition model; this further tests the efficiency of the two models.
(2) Feasibility analysis of the social water cycle measures. The chapter takes Dalian City as example, and then analyzes the achievements, existing problems and potential in water-saving, the actuality and potential in use of reclaimed grey water, seawater as well as desalted seawater, and the precondition and potential of the trans-basin water works. Furthermore, the comparison between Dalian city and other cities which gain achievements in water-saving, use of non-traditional water type and trans-basin water works; this expects to support practical proofs to the following research.
(3) Crop pattern optimization under fuzzy environment and assessment to crop pattern schemes. The water-saving irrigation mode and corresponding crop pattern optimization are crucial to the improvement of social water renewal. The multi-objective crop pattern optimization model is developed, with three objectives of maximizing economic, social as well as environmental benefit. And the interactive fuzzy multi-objective optimization approach is used to gain the satisfactory crop pattern schemes according to decision makers' perferences. Then an assessment model by combining fuzzy set theory and entropy theory is proposed to gain the optimal crop pattern scheme. The optimization and assessment models are both used to Dalian City for obtain its crop pattern scheme in the planning years 2020 and 2030. Finally the model proposed by Chen is also used, and its result is is consistent with that of my model; this further tests the efficiency of the two models.
(4) Water resources allocation under fuzzy environment. Considering the fuzziness existing in parameters prediction, and the fuzzy dependence in allocating water to different users, fuzzy numbers are used to represent the predicted values, and a fuzzy multi-objective water allocation model is proposed based on the methodology of fuzzy dependent multi-objective programming, and then the hybrid algorithm of combining fuzzy simulation technology as well as genetic algorithm is used to obtain the satisfactory water allocation schemes. Finally the model and solution algorithm are applied to Dalian City to obtain the satisfactory water resources allocation schemes in the planning years 2020 and 2030. By using the model, the "economic" type,"safe" type and "trade-off' type schemes can be directly gained via setting different cutting level. Moreover, predicted values of trapezoidal fuzzy number and normal fuzzy number representation are also used, and the results are consistent with each other; this illustrates that the membership function of fuzzy number has little influence on the optimal solution.
(5) Assessment of social water cycle measures implement. The chapter takes Dalian as example, and analyzes the effect of those series of social water cycle measures. The corresponding indexes values are obtained from the water resources allocation schemes of Chapter 5, and the indexes system and assessment approach are used to assess the state of social water renewal of the planning years 2020 and 2030. The results imply that the social water cycle measures are efficient and effective for improving the state of social water renewal; and sensitivity analysis results illustrate that trans-basin works, grey water reclamation, water-saving of urban living, direct use of seawater, seawater desalt, water-saving of agriculture, water-saving of industy are the factors influencing social renewal in sequence.
引文
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