基于可召回机制的航空公司座位存量控制研究
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摘要
现阶段,随着航空服务业竞争的日益加剧,国内航空公司为了能够更好的生存和发展,开始慢慢的意识到引入收益管理系统的重要性,越来越多的航空公司开始引入国外先进的收益管理系统进行舱位控制,以期实现收益的最大化。
收益管理是近20年来兴起的航空公司科学管理方法和研究热点,舱位控制是收益管理中的重要组成部分。本文以航空客运收益管理中舱位分配问题为主要研究对象,对引入可召回机制后的舱位分配等问题开展了深入的研究。本文首先研究了航空公司已有的收益管理座位存量控制方法的不足及其影响。针对航空公司机票销售收益管理的单航班舱位控制问题,本文建议了可召回舱位控制机制,构造了一个单航班三阶段(可召回票阶段、低价票阶段和高价票阶段)整数随机优化模型,发现了通过这种可召回实物(机票)期权机制航空公司可实现风险对冲套利。最后,通过分析引入可召回票前后航空公司整体收益的变化情况,证明实施可召回机制能增大航空公司的整体收益。对于航空公司来说,实施可召回机制是一种可增加额外收入的无风险措施。
可召回机制的引入无论对于航空公司还是对于旅客来说,都是一种非常好的工具,是一种能够实现共赢的座位控制机制。可召回机制在理论上为航空公司增大收益提供了一条可供选择的途径,可作为高舱位需求预测不准确时对决策的修正。同时无论对于时间敏感型旅客还是价格敏感型旅客,可召回票都是一种非常好的选择,可召回机制的引入实际上是一种Pareto改进过程。因此,研究和实施可召回机制对航空运输企业具有重要的意义。
At this stage, as the competition of aviation industry growing, in order to survival and development, domestic airlines realize the importance of introducing revenue management systems. In order to achieve the maximization of revenue, more and more airlines start to introduce foreign advanced revenue management system to control seats,
Revenue Management is the new management methods and research hot in the past 20 years. Seating control is an important part of revenue management. In this paper, we analyze the impacts to airline which introduces callable mechanism to sale tickets, and show that callable mechanism can provide a risk less source of additional revenue to airline. In the establishment of model process, we separate callable tickets and ordinary tickets, set up a three-period and three-fare callable revenue model. Finally, the optimization of callable tickets booking limit is obtained, and we make the numerical examples to authenticate.
Callable mechanism is a very good tool to achieve a win-win situation both for travelers and airlines, it’s an additional revenue increase measures with risk-free. Callable mechanism offers a choice of channels for airlines to increase the revenue, it can be used to amend decision as high-class demand forecasting inaccurate. At the same time, both for time-sensitive or price-sensitive passengers, callable mechanism is also a good tool to control seats. In fact, callable mechanism is a Pareto improvement process. Therefore, the research and implementation of callable mechanism have great significance to the air transport enterprises.
收益管理是近20年来兴起的航空公司科学管理方法和研究热点,舱位控制是收益管理中的重要组成部分。本文以航空客运收益管理中舱位分配问题为主要研究对象,对引入可召回机制后的舱位分配等问题开展了深入的研究。本文首先研究了航空公司已有的收益管理座位存量控制方法的不足及其影响。针对航空公司机票销售收益管理的单航班舱位控制问题,本文建议了可召回舱位控制机制,构造了一个单航班三阶段(可召回票阶段、低价票阶段和高价票阶段)整数随机优化模型,发现了通过这种可召回实物(机票)期权机制航空公司可实现风险对冲套利。最后,通过分析引入可召回票前后航空公司整体收益的变化情况,证明实施可召回机制能增大航空公司的整体收益。对于航空公司来说,实施可召回机制是一种可增加额外收入的无风险措施。
可召回机制的引入无论对于航空公司还是对于旅客来说,都是一种非常好的工具,是一种能够实现共赢的座位控制机制。可召回机制在理论上为航空公司增大收益提供了一条可供选择的途径,可作为高舱位需求预测不准确时对决策的修正。同时无论对于时间敏感型旅客还是价格敏感型旅客,可召回票都是一种非常好的选择,可召回机制的引入实际上是一种Pareto改进过程。因此,研究和实施可召回机制对航空运输企业具有重要的意义。
At this stage, as the competition of aviation industry growing, in order to survival and development, domestic airlines realize the importance of introducing revenue management systems. In order to achieve the maximization of revenue, more and more airlines start to introduce foreign advanced revenue management system to control seats,
Revenue Management is the new management methods and research hot in the past 20 years. Seating control is an important part of revenue management. In this paper, we analyze the impacts to airline which introduces callable mechanism to sale tickets, and show that callable mechanism can provide a risk less source of additional revenue to airline. In the establishment of model process, we separate callable tickets and ordinary tickets, set up a three-period and three-fare callable revenue model. Finally, the optimization of callable tickets booking limit is obtained, and we make the numerical examples to authenticate.
Callable mechanism is a very good tool to achieve a win-win situation both for travelers and airlines, it’s an additional revenue increase measures with risk-free. Callable mechanism offers a choice of channels for airlines to increase the revenue, it can be used to amend decision as high-class demand forecasting inaccurate. At the same time, both for time-sensitive or price-sensitive passengers, callable mechanism is also a good tool to control seats. In fact, callable mechanism is a Pareto improvement process. Therefore, the research and implementation of callable mechanism have great significance to the air transport enterprises.
引文
[1] Littlewood K. Forecasting and control of passenger bookings [A]. AGIFORS Symposium Proc. 12 [C]. Nathanya, Israel, 1972: 95-128.
[2] Karaesman I, van Ryzin G J. Overbooking with substitutable inventory classes [J]. Oper Res,2004,52(1): 83-104.
[3] Gallego G, van Ryzin G G.. A multi-product dynamic pricing problem and its applications to network yield management [J]. Oper Res,1997,45(1):24 41.
[4] Maglaras C, Meissner J. Dynamic pricing strategies for multi-product revenue management problems[J]. Manufacturing and Service Oper Mgmnt, 2006, 8:136-148.
[5] Choua F S, Parlarb M. Optimal quota allocation for a revenue-maximizing auction holder facing a random number of bidders [J]. Inter Trans in Oper Res, 2005, 12:559-580.
[6] Littlewood K. Forecasting and Control of Passenger Bookings[J]. In AGIFORS Symposium Proc. 12 Nathnaya. Israel, 1972:95-128.
[7] Mcgill J. I. Optimization and Estimation Problems in Airline Yield Management[C], Ph.D. thesis. Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration. University of British Columbia, Vancouver. BC. 1989.
[8] Wollmer R.D.,An Airline Seat Management Model for a Single Leg Route when Lower Fare Classes Book First[J], Operations Research. 1992, V40N1 (Jan-Feb):26-37.
[9] Robinson L.W, Optimal and Approximate Control Policies for Airline Booking with Sequential Non-monotonic Fare Classed [J]. Operations Research, 1995: V43N2 (Mar-Apr). 252-263.
[10] Belobaba P. P. Optimal vs. Heuristic Methods for Nested Seat Allocation[J], In AGIFORS Reservation and Yield Management Study Group 1992 Meeting, Brussel, Belgium, 1992.
[11] Curry R. E. Optimal Airline Seat Allocation with Fare Classes Nested by Origins and Destinations[J], Transportation Science. 1990:V24N2. 193-204.
[12] Brumelle S. L, Mcgill .J.1.,Airline Seat Allocation with Multiple Nested Fare Classes[J], Operations Research. 1993:V41N1 (Jan-Feb).127-137.
[13] Mayer M,Seat Allocation or a Simple Model of Seat Allocation via Sophisticated Ones[C]. In AGIFORS Symposium Proc. 16, Key Biscayne, Florida, 1976:103-135.
[14] Hersh M. Ladany S. P. Optimal Seat Allocation for Flights with one Intermediate Stop[J]. Computers Opns. Res,1978: V5. 31-37.
[15] Lee T. C, Hersh M. A Model for Dynamic Airline Seat Inventory Control with Multiple Seat Bookings[J]. Transportation Science.1993:V27N3 (Aug).252-265.
[16] Stone R. Diamond M. Optimal Inventory Control for a Single Flight Leg[J], Working Paper. Northwest Airline. Operations Research Division. Minneapoils, MN. 1992.
[17] Feng Y. Gal1ego G.,Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares[J], Management Science, 1995:V41N8 (Aug).1371一1391.
[18] Chatwin R. E.,Optimal Airline Overbooking, Ph.D. thesis. Department of Operations Research [J]. Stanford University Palo Alto. CA. 1992
[19] Sun X.,Airline Yield Management, A Dynamic Seat Allocation Model[C], Master' s thesis, Faculty of Commerce, University of British Columbia, 1992.
[20] Shaykevich, Airline Yield Management, Dynamic Programming Approach[C], Master' s thesis, Department of Operation Research, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, 1994.
[21] Young Y.,Van Slyke R.,Stochastic Knapsack Models of Yield Management[C], Technical Report, Polytechnic University, New York, NY, 1994:94-76.
[22] Brumelle S. Walczak D.,Dynamic Allocation of Airline Seat Inventory with Batch Arrivals[C], in 1997 Air Transport Research Group of the WCTR Society Proc.3, Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration, University of British Columbia,Vancouver, BC, 1997.
[23] Zhao W. Zheng Y. S.,General Dynamic Models for Airline Seat Allocation[R], Working Paper, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA,1998.
[24] Zhao W. Zheng Y. S.,Optimal Policy for Multi-Class Seat Allocation with Nonstationary Demand[R], Working Paper, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 1998.
[25] Zhao W.,Dynamic and Static Yield Management Models, Ph. D. thesis[C], The Wharton School, Operations and In-formation Management Department, University ofPennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 1999.
[26] Lautenbacher J. Stidham S. J.,The Underlying Markov Decision Process in the Single-Leg Airline Yield Management Problem[J], Transportation Science, 1999:V33N2 (May),136-146.
[27] Subramanian J.,Lautenbacher C. J.,Stidham S. J.,Airline Yield Management with Overbooking Cancellations and No Shows[J], Transportation Science, 1999:V33N2 (May),147-167.
[28]官建成.航空运输中的收益管理与座位存贮控制[J].国际航空. 1993:20-22.
[29]杨思梁,刘军.关于航空客运收益管理的一些基本概念[J].民航经济与技术. 1998:37-41.
[30]甘江.航空公司怎样提高收益——谈收益管理与限制条件[J].民用航空. 1999:14-17.
[31]耿淑香.航空公司运营管理方略[M].中国民航出版社. 2000:179-222.
[32]刘军.航空客运收益管理与风险决策理论及其应用研究[D].北京航空航天大学博士学位论文. 2000,64-87.
[33]陈鹰.国内航空公司客运收益管理系统研究与开发[D].厦门大学硕士生毕业论文.2002:25-32.
[34]杨思梁.最赢利的管理方法——收益管理.航空工业出版社[M]. 2000:52-56.
[35]张立,李德友.收益管理中的网络优化研究[J].航空计算技术. 2004:VOL34N3(Sep),13-15.
[36]张建成.收益管理预测系统的研究和开发[D].南京航空航天大学硕士生毕业论文. 2005.
[37]刘玮.航空客运收益管理中超售问题的研究[D].南京航空航天大学硕士生毕业论文. 2005.
[38] P. P. Belobaba, Airline Yield Management: An Overview of Seat Inventory Control[J], Transport Science, 1987, (21):63-73.
[39]刘军.航空客运收益管理与风险决策理论及其应用研究[D]. [博士学位论文],北京,北京航空航天大学. 2000.
[40] Beckmann J.M.,Decision and Team Problems in Airline[J],Reservations Econometrica,1958,V26,134-145.
[41] Kosten L.,En mathematics model on Reservation Problems[J],Statistica Neerlandica,1960,V14,85-94.
[42] Thompson H.R. , Statistical Problems in Airline Reservation Contro[J]l , Operational ResearchQuarterly,1961,V12,167-185.
[43] Karlin S.,One Stage Models with Uncertainty [D],[硕士学位论文],Stanford California,Stanford University.
[44] Iglehart D.L.&Karlin S.,Optimal Policy for Dynamic Inventory Process with Nonstationary Stochastic Demands[D],[硕士学位论文],Stanford California,StanfordUniversity.
[45] Taylor J.,The Determination of Passenger Booking Levels[C],AGIFORS Symposium Proc.2,Fregene,Italy,1962.
[46] Deetman C.,Booking Levels[Z],AGIFORS Symposium Proc.4,American Airlines,New York,1964.
[47] Rothstein M.&Stone A.W.,Passenger Booking Levels[J],AGIFORS Symposium Proc.7, Noordwijk, The Netherlands,1967.
[48] Martinez R.&Sanchez M.,Automatic Booking Level Control[J],AGIFORS Symposium Proc.10,Terrigal,Australia,1970.
[49] Littlewood K.,Forecasting and Control of Passenger Bookings [J],AGIFORS Symposium Proc.12, Nathanya, Israel, 1972,95-128.
[50] Shlifer R.&Vardi Y. , An airline Overbooking Policy[J] , Transportation Science,1975,V9,101-114.
[51] Bodily S.E.&Pfeifer P.E.,Overbooking Decision[J],Rules Omega, 1992, V20/1, 129-133.
[52] Rothstein M.,Stochastic Models for Airline Booking Policies [D],[博士学位论文],NewYork, New York University,1968.
[53] Rothstein M.Stochastic Models for Airline Booking[D],[博士学位论文],New York,New York University,1971.
[54] Hersh,M.&Ladany S.P.,Optimal Seat Allocation for Flights with Intermediate Stops[J],Compute Operational Research,1978,V5,31-37.
[55] Hersh M.&Brosh I. , The Optimal Strategy Structure of an Intermittently Operated ServiceChannel[J],European Journal of Operational Research, 1980, V5,133-141.
[56] Oil B.G.etc,Booking Policy for Flights with Two Types of Passengers[J],European Journal of Operational Research,1986,27,274-288.
[57] Alstrup J.&Andersson S.E.&Boas S.etc,Booking Control Increases Profit[J],Scandinavian Airlines Interfaces,1989,Va9N4(Jul-Aug),10-19.
[58] Alstrup J.&Boas S.&Madesen O.B. G.etc,Booking Policy for Flights with Two Passenger Types[J],European Journal of Operations Research, 1986,V27,274-288.
[59] Veinott A.F.,Optimal Production with Machine Breakdowns[J],Department of Operations Research,Stanford California,Stanford University.
[60] Chatwin R.E.,Optimal Airline Overbooking[D],[博士学位论文],Palo Alto,CA, Stanford University,1992.
[61] Subramanian S.J.&Lautenbacher C.J.,Airline Yield Management with Overbooking[J], Cancellation, and No-shows, Working Paper, Department of Operations Research,Chapel Hill,NC,University of North Carolina,1997.
[62] Chatwin R.E.,Continuous-Time Airline Overbooking with Time Dependent Fares and Refunds[J],Transportation Science,1998, V33N2(May),182-191.
[63] Ratliff R M.,Ideas On Overbooking[R], AGIFORS Reservation and Yield Management Study Group 1998 Meeting, 1998.
[64] Westerhof A.J.,CO2 in The Air Overbooking[R],AGIFORS Reservation and Yield Management Study Group 1998 Meeting,1998.
[65] Botimer T.C.,Overbookings for Sale Creative Sales Force Management[J],AGIFORS Reservation and Yield Management Study Group 1999 Meeting, 1999.
[66] Van Ryzin G.J. , Overbooking with Substitutable Inventory Classes[J] , AGIFORS Reservationand Yield Management Study Group 1999 Meeting, 1999.
[2] Karaesman I, van Ryzin G J. Overbooking with substitutable inventory classes [J]. Oper Res,2004,52(1): 83-104.
[3] Gallego G, van Ryzin G G.. A multi-product dynamic pricing problem and its applications to network yield management [J]. Oper Res,1997,45(1):24 41.
[4] Maglaras C, Meissner J. Dynamic pricing strategies for multi-product revenue management problems[J]. Manufacturing and Service Oper Mgmnt, 2006, 8:136-148.
[5] Choua F S, Parlarb M. Optimal quota allocation for a revenue-maximizing auction holder facing a random number of bidders [J]. Inter Trans in Oper Res, 2005, 12:559-580.
[6] Littlewood K. Forecasting and Control of Passenger Bookings[J]. In AGIFORS Symposium Proc. 12 Nathnaya. Israel, 1972:95-128.
[7] Mcgill J. I. Optimization and Estimation Problems in Airline Yield Management[C], Ph.D. thesis. Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration. University of British Columbia, Vancouver. BC. 1989.
[8] Wollmer R.D.,An Airline Seat Management Model for a Single Leg Route when Lower Fare Classes Book First[J], Operations Research. 1992, V40N1 (Jan-Feb):26-37.
[9] Robinson L.W, Optimal and Approximate Control Policies for Airline Booking with Sequential Non-monotonic Fare Classed [J]. Operations Research, 1995: V43N2 (Mar-Apr). 252-263.
[10] Belobaba P. P. Optimal vs. Heuristic Methods for Nested Seat Allocation[J], In AGIFORS Reservation and Yield Management Study Group 1992 Meeting, Brussel, Belgium, 1992.
[11] Curry R. E. Optimal Airline Seat Allocation with Fare Classes Nested by Origins and Destinations[J], Transportation Science. 1990:V24N2. 193-204.
[12] Brumelle S. L, Mcgill .J.1.,Airline Seat Allocation with Multiple Nested Fare Classes[J], Operations Research. 1993:V41N1 (Jan-Feb).127-137.
[13] Mayer M,Seat Allocation or a Simple Model of Seat Allocation via Sophisticated Ones[C]. In AGIFORS Symposium Proc. 16, Key Biscayne, Florida, 1976:103-135.
[14] Hersh M. Ladany S. P. Optimal Seat Allocation for Flights with one Intermediate Stop[J]. Computers Opns. Res,1978: V5. 31-37.
[15] Lee T. C, Hersh M. A Model for Dynamic Airline Seat Inventory Control with Multiple Seat Bookings[J]. Transportation Science.1993:V27N3 (Aug).252-265.
[16] Stone R. Diamond M. Optimal Inventory Control for a Single Flight Leg[J], Working Paper. Northwest Airline. Operations Research Division. Minneapoils, MN. 1992.
[17] Feng Y. Gal1ego G.,Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares[J], Management Science, 1995:V41N8 (Aug).1371一1391.
[18] Chatwin R. E.,Optimal Airline Overbooking, Ph.D. thesis. Department of Operations Research [J]. Stanford University Palo Alto. CA. 1992
[19] Sun X.,Airline Yield Management, A Dynamic Seat Allocation Model[C], Master' s thesis, Faculty of Commerce, University of British Columbia, 1992.
[20] Shaykevich, Airline Yield Management, Dynamic Programming Approach[C], Master' s thesis, Department of Operation Research, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, 1994.
[21] Young Y.,Van Slyke R.,Stochastic Knapsack Models of Yield Management[C], Technical Report, Polytechnic University, New York, NY, 1994:94-76.
[22] Brumelle S. Walczak D.,Dynamic Allocation of Airline Seat Inventory with Batch Arrivals[C], in 1997 Air Transport Research Group of the WCTR Society Proc.3, Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration, University of British Columbia,Vancouver, BC, 1997.
[23] Zhao W. Zheng Y. S.,General Dynamic Models for Airline Seat Allocation[R], Working Paper, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA,1998.
[24] Zhao W. Zheng Y. S.,Optimal Policy for Multi-Class Seat Allocation with Nonstationary Demand[R], Working Paper, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 1998.
[25] Zhao W.,Dynamic and Static Yield Management Models, Ph. D. thesis[C], The Wharton School, Operations and In-formation Management Department, University ofPennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 1999.
[26] Lautenbacher J. Stidham S. J.,The Underlying Markov Decision Process in the Single-Leg Airline Yield Management Problem[J], Transportation Science, 1999:V33N2 (May),136-146.
[27] Subramanian J.,Lautenbacher C. J.,Stidham S. J.,Airline Yield Management with Overbooking Cancellations and No Shows[J], Transportation Science, 1999:V33N2 (May),147-167.
[28]官建成.航空运输中的收益管理与座位存贮控制[J].国际航空. 1993:20-22.
[29]杨思梁,刘军.关于航空客运收益管理的一些基本概念[J].民航经济与技术. 1998:37-41.
[30]甘江.航空公司怎样提高收益——谈收益管理与限制条件[J].民用航空. 1999:14-17.
[31]耿淑香.航空公司运营管理方略[M].中国民航出版社. 2000:179-222.
[32]刘军.航空客运收益管理与风险决策理论及其应用研究[D].北京航空航天大学博士学位论文. 2000,64-87.
[33]陈鹰.国内航空公司客运收益管理系统研究与开发[D].厦门大学硕士生毕业论文.2002:25-32.
[34]杨思梁.最赢利的管理方法——收益管理.航空工业出版社[M]. 2000:52-56.
[35]张立,李德友.收益管理中的网络优化研究[J].航空计算技术. 2004:VOL34N3(Sep),13-15.
[36]张建成.收益管理预测系统的研究和开发[D].南京航空航天大学硕士生毕业论文. 2005.
[37]刘玮.航空客运收益管理中超售问题的研究[D].南京航空航天大学硕士生毕业论文. 2005.
[38] P. P. Belobaba, Airline Yield Management: An Overview of Seat Inventory Control[J], Transport Science, 1987, (21):63-73.
[39]刘军.航空客运收益管理与风险决策理论及其应用研究[D]. [博士学位论文],北京,北京航空航天大学. 2000.
[40] Beckmann J.M.,Decision and Team Problems in Airline[J],Reservations Econometrica,1958,V26,134-145.
[41] Kosten L.,En mathematics model on Reservation Problems[J],Statistica Neerlandica,1960,V14,85-94.
[42] Thompson H.R. , Statistical Problems in Airline Reservation Contro[J]l , Operational ResearchQuarterly,1961,V12,167-185.
[43] Karlin S.,One Stage Models with Uncertainty [D],[硕士学位论文],Stanford California,Stanford University.
[44] Iglehart D.L.&Karlin S.,Optimal Policy for Dynamic Inventory Process with Nonstationary Stochastic Demands[D],[硕士学位论文],Stanford California,StanfordUniversity.
[45] Taylor J.,The Determination of Passenger Booking Levels[C],AGIFORS Symposium Proc.2,Fregene,Italy,1962.
[46] Deetman C.,Booking Levels[Z],AGIFORS Symposium Proc.4,American Airlines,New York,1964.
[47] Rothstein M.&Stone A.W.,Passenger Booking Levels[J],AGIFORS Symposium Proc.7, Noordwijk, The Netherlands,1967.
[48] Martinez R.&Sanchez M.,Automatic Booking Level Control[J],AGIFORS Symposium Proc.10,Terrigal,Australia,1970.
[49] Littlewood K.,Forecasting and Control of Passenger Bookings [J],AGIFORS Symposium Proc.12, Nathanya, Israel, 1972,95-128.
[50] Shlifer R.&Vardi Y. , An airline Overbooking Policy[J] , Transportation Science,1975,V9,101-114.
[51] Bodily S.E.&Pfeifer P.E.,Overbooking Decision[J],Rules Omega, 1992, V20/1, 129-133.
[52] Rothstein M.,Stochastic Models for Airline Booking Policies [D],[博士学位论文],NewYork, New York University,1968.
[53] Rothstein M.Stochastic Models for Airline Booking[D],[博士学位论文],New York,New York University,1971.
[54] Hersh,M.&Ladany S.P.,Optimal Seat Allocation for Flights with Intermediate Stops[J],Compute Operational Research,1978,V5,31-37.
[55] Hersh M.&Brosh I. , The Optimal Strategy Structure of an Intermittently Operated ServiceChannel[J],European Journal of Operational Research, 1980, V5,133-141.
[56] Oil B.G.etc,Booking Policy for Flights with Two Types of Passengers[J],European Journal of Operational Research,1986,27,274-288.
[57] Alstrup J.&Andersson S.E.&Boas S.etc,Booking Control Increases Profit[J],Scandinavian Airlines Interfaces,1989,Va9N4(Jul-Aug),10-19.
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