寡头竞争条件下的航空公司收益决策博弈分析
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摘要
经济全球化导致了世界航空运输市场日益狭窄,面对激烈的竞争环境,航空公司如何进行决策来应对市场形势成为一个重要的研究课题。现代博弈论为研究这类问题提供了一个基本的途径。
本文重点是针对我国国内航空运输业的市场竞争特点,对航空公司的收益决策问题进行研究。内容主要包括以下几个方面:首先,采用经典的时间序列预测方法——求和自回归移动平均模型寻找合适的拟合口径对我国民航运输周转量进行了预测,为分析未来几年国内航空运输市场特点提供了必要的前提。其次,运用多个指标衡量了我国民航运输市场的集中度,接着利用聚类分析的方法对我国民航运输市场竞争格局进行定量研究,将我国国内的航空公司按照其综合实力进行聚类,得出了我国民航运输市场呈现出寡头竞争格局的结论。最后,文章结合我国国内航空运输业市场竞争的实际特点,运用博弈论的理论方法对寡头竞争环境下的航空公司收益管理的产品定价和舱位配置问题进行研究。建立并分析了竞争和合作环境下的博弈模型,通过对模型的均衡解分析得到航空公司在竞争环境下纯策略纳什均衡解存在的条件,并对结果进行了效率分析,同时也讨论了双寡头合作协调机制的设计问题,为有关政府主管部门和企业经营决策提供参考。
The economic changes results in a change of air transportation industry in the world, which becomes much narrow. For airlines, it is urgent for them to make right decisions to face the complex market. The game theory is one of the effective tools to analyze this problem.
This paper emphasizes on decisions for airline revenue according to the characteristic of domestic air transportation market. And it mainly contains the following content. First, it applies the model of autoregressive integrated moving average in time series analysis to forecast air transportation turnover volume of china. It is the base of analyzing the characteristic of domestic air transportation market in the future. Secondly, it uses some index to investigate the domestic market concentration degree and applies the method of cluster analysis to investigate the situation of domestic air transportation in competition. It can obtain the conclusion that one of the characteristic of domestic air transportation is oligopoly competition. Finally, the game theory is applied to investigate the pricing and seat inventory control problem in competitive market. It develops and analyzes the non-cooperative game models and the cooperative model to address the problem, obtaining the conditions under which the pure-strategy Nash equilibrium exists in these revenue management games. Even, it discusses a mechanism design for the cooperation of the two airlines in decision of pricing. It provides some reference for the administrative departments and the managers of airlines to make optimal decisions.
本文重点是针对我国国内航空运输业的市场竞争特点,对航空公司的收益决策问题进行研究。内容主要包括以下几个方面:首先,采用经典的时间序列预测方法——求和自回归移动平均模型寻找合适的拟合口径对我国民航运输周转量进行了预测,为分析未来几年国内航空运输市场特点提供了必要的前提。其次,运用多个指标衡量了我国民航运输市场的集中度,接着利用聚类分析的方法对我国民航运输市场竞争格局进行定量研究,将我国国内的航空公司按照其综合实力进行聚类,得出了我国民航运输市场呈现出寡头竞争格局的结论。最后,文章结合我国国内航空运输业市场竞争的实际特点,运用博弈论的理论方法对寡头竞争环境下的航空公司收益管理的产品定价和舱位配置问题进行研究。建立并分析了竞争和合作环境下的博弈模型,通过对模型的均衡解分析得到航空公司在竞争环境下纯策略纳什均衡解存在的条件,并对结果进行了效率分析,同时也讨论了双寡头合作协调机制的设计问题,为有关政府主管部门和企业经营决策提供参考。
The economic changes results in a change of air transportation industry in the world, which becomes much narrow. For airlines, it is urgent for them to make right decisions to face the complex market. The game theory is one of the effective tools to analyze this problem.
This paper emphasizes on decisions for airline revenue according to the characteristic of domestic air transportation market. And it mainly contains the following content. First, it applies the model of autoregressive integrated moving average in time series analysis to forecast air transportation turnover volume of china. It is the base of analyzing the characteristic of domestic air transportation market in the future. Secondly, it uses some index to investigate the domestic market concentration degree and applies the method of cluster analysis to investigate the situation of domestic air transportation in competition. It can obtain the conclusion that one of the characteristic of domestic air transportation is oligopoly competition. Finally, the game theory is applied to investigate the pricing and seat inventory control problem in competitive market. It develops and analyzes the non-cooperative game models and the cooperative model to address the problem, obtaining the conditions under which the pure-strategy Nash equilibrium exists in these revenue management games. Even, it discusses a mechanism design for the cooperation of the two airlines in decision of pricing. It provides some reference for the administrative departments and the managers of airlines to make optimal decisions.
引文
[1]王志永.中国民航市场结构重组分类管制与协调政策研究[M].北京:中国民航出版社,2006.1-2,30-32
[2]轩余恩.中国民航运输市场发展与创新[D]:[博士学位论文].西安:西安交通大学,2003
[3]白杨.我国航空运输服务业的市场结构及价格竞争策略分析[J].经济经纬,2006(1):31-32
[4]Hansen M.Airline competition in a hub-dominated environment:An application of noncooperative game theory[J].Transportation Research,1990,24B(1):27-43
[5]Hong P,T Haker.Air traffic network equilibrium:Toward frequency,price and slot priority analysis[J].Transportation Research,1992,26B(4):307-323
[6]Dobson G,P J Lederer.Airline scheduling and routing in a hub-and-spoke system[J].Transportation Science,1993,27(3):281-297.
[7]Hendricks K,M Piccione,G Tan.Equlibria in networks[J].Econometrica,1999,67(6):1407-1434
[8]Barla P,C Constantatos.Strategic interactions and airline network morphology under demand uncertainty[J].European Economic review,2005,49:703-716
[9]Juan Carlos Martin.Analyzing competition for hub location in intercontinental aviation markets[J].Transportation Research Part E,2004,40:135-150
[10]Juan Carlos Martin.Hub location in the South-Atlantic airline market,A spatial competition game[J].Transportation Research Part A,2003,37:865-888
[11]Nicole Adler.Hub-Spoke network choice under competition with an application to Western Europe[J].Transportation Science,2005,39(1):58-72
[12]秦汉轩,程希骏.航空公司航线决策的一种系统方法[J].运筹与管理,2000,9(3):56-63
[13]柏明国,朱金福.航空公司航线决策的一种方法[J].统计与决策,2005(20):151-153
[14]张柏生,刘飞.航线优化的随机动态规划模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2006,36(2):13-20
[15]Call J D,T E Keeler.Airline deregulation,fares and market behavior:Some empirical evidence[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1985.221-247
[16]Belobaba P P.Airline yield management:An overview of seat inventory control[J].Transportation Science 1987(21):63-73
[17]Wollmer R D.An airline reservation model for opening and closing fare classes[R].Unpublished Internal Report,McDonnell-Douglas,St.Louis,MO.1985
[18]Williamson E L.Comparison of optimization techniques for origin-destination seat inventory control[R].MIT Flight Transportation Laboratory Report,Cambridge,MA.1988
[19]Weatherford L R.Using prices more realistically as decision variables in perishableasset revenue management problems[J].Journal of Combinatorial Optimization 1997(1):277-304
[20]McGill J I,Van Ryzin G J.Revenue management:research overview and prospects[J].Transportation Science,1999,33(2):233-256.
[21]Jacques Tournut.Monopoly and optimal nonlinear pricing:the case of route monopolies and heterogeneous demand in the air transport market[J].Transportation Research Part E,2004(40):477-513
[22]Serguei Netessine,Robert A Shumsky.Revenue Management Games:Horizontal and Vertical Competition[J].Management Science,2005,51(5):813-831
[23]白杨.我国航空运输服务业的市场结构及价格竞争策略分析[J].经济经纬,2006(1):31-34
[24]席卫东,乔兵,朱剑英,等.基于K线图的收益管理浮动价格博弈[J].商业研究,2006(340):34-39
[25]高强,朱金福,蓝伯雄.国内航空公司实施收益管理的博弈分析[J].科研管理,2006,27(3):125-129
[26]王燕.应用时间序列分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005.146-166
[27]玛丽亚.莫斯坎瑞斯主编.企业经济学[M].第2版.柯旭清等译.北京:北京大学出版社,2004.11-17
[28]樊欣,邵谦谦.SAS8.X经济统计[M].北京:北京希望电子出版社,2003.259-269
[29]牟德一,张蕊.管制双寡头垄断下的航空公司收益[J].中国民航学院学报(增刊),2006(12)
[30]牟德一,杨靖利.放松管制下国内航空运输市场竞争策略分析[C].中国科协年会论文集.北京:中国科学技术出版社,2006.669-672
[31]Roger B,Myerson.Game Theory-Analysis of Conflict[M].Harvard:Harvard University Press,1991.43-78
[32]Joe H.Multivariate Models and Dependence Concepts[M].London:Chapman and Hall,1997.31-60
[33]Karlin S,Y Rinott.Classes of orderings of measures and related correlation inequalities[J].Multivariate Anal,1980(10):467-498
[2]轩余恩.中国民航运输市场发展与创新[D]:[博士学位论文].西安:西安交通大学,2003
[3]白杨.我国航空运输服务业的市场结构及价格竞争策略分析[J].经济经纬,2006(1):31-32
[4]Hansen M.Airline competition in a hub-dominated environment:An application of noncooperative game theory[J].Transportation Research,1990,24B(1):27-43
[5]Hong P,T Haker.Air traffic network equilibrium:Toward frequency,price and slot priority analysis[J].Transportation Research,1992,26B(4):307-323
[6]Dobson G,P J Lederer.Airline scheduling and routing in a hub-and-spoke system[J].Transportation Science,1993,27(3):281-297.
[7]Hendricks K,M Piccione,G Tan.Equlibria in networks[J].Econometrica,1999,67(6):1407-1434
[8]Barla P,C Constantatos.Strategic interactions and airline network morphology under demand uncertainty[J].European Economic review,2005,49:703-716
[9]Juan Carlos Martin.Analyzing competition for hub location in intercontinental aviation markets[J].Transportation Research Part E,2004,40:135-150
[10]Juan Carlos Martin.Hub location in the South-Atlantic airline market,A spatial competition game[J].Transportation Research Part A,2003,37:865-888
[11]Nicole Adler.Hub-Spoke network choice under competition with an application to Western Europe[J].Transportation Science,2005,39(1):58-72
[12]秦汉轩,程希骏.航空公司航线决策的一种系统方法[J].运筹与管理,2000,9(3):56-63
[13]柏明国,朱金福.航空公司航线决策的一种方法[J].统计与决策,2005(20):151-153
[14]张柏生,刘飞.航线优化的随机动态规划模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2006,36(2):13-20
[15]Call J D,T E Keeler.Airline deregulation,fares and market behavior:Some empirical evidence[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1985.221-247
[16]Belobaba P P.Airline yield management:An overview of seat inventory control[J].Transportation Science 1987(21):63-73
[17]Wollmer R D.An airline reservation model for opening and closing fare classes[R].Unpublished Internal Report,McDonnell-Douglas,St.Louis,MO.1985
[18]Williamson E L.Comparison of optimization techniques for origin-destination seat inventory control[R].MIT Flight Transportation Laboratory Report,Cambridge,MA.1988
[19]Weatherford L R.Using prices more realistically as decision variables in perishableasset revenue management problems[J].Journal of Combinatorial Optimization 1997(1):277-304
[20]McGill J I,Van Ryzin G J.Revenue management:research overview and prospects[J].Transportation Science,1999,33(2):233-256.
[21]Jacques Tournut.Monopoly and optimal nonlinear pricing:the case of route monopolies and heterogeneous demand in the air transport market[J].Transportation Research Part E,2004(40):477-513
[22]Serguei Netessine,Robert A Shumsky.Revenue Management Games:Horizontal and Vertical Competition[J].Management Science,2005,51(5):813-831
[23]白杨.我国航空运输服务业的市场结构及价格竞争策略分析[J].经济经纬,2006(1):31-34
[24]席卫东,乔兵,朱剑英,等.基于K线图的收益管理浮动价格博弈[J].商业研究,2006(340):34-39
[25]高强,朱金福,蓝伯雄.国内航空公司实施收益管理的博弈分析[J].科研管理,2006,27(3):125-129
[26]王燕.应用时间序列分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005.146-166
[27]玛丽亚.莫斯坎瑞斯主编.企业经济学[M].第2版.柯旭清等译.北京:北京大学出版社,2004.11-17
[28]樊欣,邵谦谦.SAS8.X经济统计[M].北京:北京希望电子出版社,2003.259-269
[29]牟德一,张蕊.管制双寡头垄断下的航空公司收益[J].中国民航学院学报(增刊),2006(12)
[30]牟德一,杨靖利.放松管制下国内航空运输市场竞争策略分析[C].中国科协年会论文集.北京:中国科学技术出版社,2006.669-672
[31]Roger B,Myerson.Game Theory-Analysis of Conflict[M].Harvard:Harvard University Press,1991.43-78
[32]Joe H.Multivariate Models and Dependence Concepts[M].London:Chapman and Hall,1997.31-60
[33]Karlin S,Y Rinott.Classes of orderings of measures and related correlation inequalities[J].Multivariate Anal,1980(10):467-498