竞争环境下航空公司收益管理舱位控制问题的研究
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摘要
收益管理是航空公司科学管理方法研究的热点,舱位控制在航空收益管理中占据着核心地位。由于传统的舱位控制并不考虑竞争这个重要因素,因而使得国内航空公司引进的收益管理系统往往不能发挥出应有的作用。本文从竞争角度出发,重点研究了竞争环境下舱位控制的相关问题,以下为本文的主要内容:
一、详细阐述了收益管理的产生、发展、研究内容以及研究的意义,重点介绍了竞争环境下收益管理研究的内容及研究现状,尤其是竞争环境下的舱位控制问题。
二、当一条航线上有多家航空公司共同经营时,一家航空公司的舱位安排不但会影响自身的收益,而且也会影响其它航空公司的收益。本文结合国内航空市场的特点,将博弈论中的纯战略纳什均衡引入到舱位控制模型之中,随后利用实例分析了单航节航线上博弈模型的可行性,并给出了竞争环境下两航节航线上舱位的控制策略。
三、本文在两航节航线舱位显式均衡解的基础之上,分析了飞机商用座位数、旅客需求转移率、旅客需求量三个因素对于舱位显式均衡解的影响,并给出了舱位的调整策略。最后对显式均衡解仿真研究并分析了国内航空市场的现状。
Revenue management is the hotspot of scientific management method and seat inventory control, which is at the core of airline revenue management. As the traditional seat inventory control fails to include the factor of competition, which is very important in seat inventory control, the revenue management system introduced from overseas usually can not be applied efficiently. This thesis focuses on the study of the competition-related seat inventory control, mainly including the following aspects:
First, the origins, development, research contents and significance of revenue management are introduced. Emphasis is placed on the contents and development of revenue management, especially on the competition-related seat inventory control.
Second, when there are several airlines on the same flight route, a seat arrangement by an airline will influence not only the income of the airline oneself, but also that of other airlines. Based on the characteristics of the local airline market, this thesis applies purely strategic Nash Equilibrium, which is derived from game theory, to the seat inventory control model, then analyzes the feasibility of the game model on a single route with examples, and works out the seat inventory control policies for the transit flights.
Third, on the basis of the explicit equilibrium solution, this thesis analyzes the influences by three factors: seating capacity, demand transfer rate, and passenger demand. And then it puts forward the adjustment strategy. Finally, through an imitating research on explicit equilibrium solution, this thesis makes a thorough analysis of the conditions of local aviation market.
一、详细阐述了收益管理的产生、发展、研究内容以及研究的意义,重点介绍了竞争环境下收益管理研究的内容及研究现状,尤其是竞争环境下的舱位控制问题。
二、当一条航线上有多家航空公司共同经营时,一家航空公司的舱位安排不但会影响自身的收益,而且也会影响其它航空公司的收益。本文结合国内航空市场的特点,将博弈论中的纯战略纳什均衡引入到舱位控制模型之中,随后利用实例分析了单航节航线上博弈模型的可行性,并给出了竞争环境下两航节航线上舱位的控制策略。
三、本文在两航节航线舱位显式均衡解的基础之上,分析了飞机商用座位数、旅客需求转移率、旅客需求量三个因素对于舱位显式均衡解的影响,并给出了舱位的调整策略。最后对显式均衡解仿真研究并分析了国内航空市场的现状。
Revenue management is the hotspot of scientific management method and seat inventory control, which is at the core of airline revenue management. As the traditional seat inventory control fails to include the factor of competition, which is very important in seat inventory control, the revenue management system introduced from overseas usually can not be applied efficiently. This thesis focuses on the study of the competition-related seat inventory control, mainly including the following aspects:
First, the origins, development, research contents and significance of revenue management are introduced. Emphasis is placed on the contents and development of revenue management, especially on the competition-related seat inventory control.
Second, when there are several airlines on the same flight route, a seat arrangement by an airline will influence not only the income of the airline oneself, but also that of other airlines. Based on the characteristics of the local airline market, this thesis applies purely strategic Nash Equilibrium, which is derived from game theory, to the seat inventory control model, then analyzes the feasibility of the game model on a single route with examples, and works out the seat inventory control policies for the transit flights.
Third, on the basis of the explicit equilibrium solution, this thesis analyzes the influences by three factors: seating capacity, demand transfer rate, and passenger demand. And then it puts forward the adjustment strategy. Finally, through an imitating research on explicit equilibrium solution, this thesis makes a thorough analysis of the conditions of local aviation market.
引文
[1]樊伟,吴桐水,航空公司收益管理综述,中国民航学院学报, 2006, 10:42-50
[2]刘军,邱蒬华,收益管理发展的背景和条件,管理, 2001, 2:42-44.
[3]刘军,邱蒬华,航空客运收益管理的结构模型,北京航空航天大学自然科学版,2000, 10:17-21.
[4]梁海峰,国内航空公司实施收益管理的若干问题,民航经济与技术, 2000,8:34-37.
[5]杨思梁,刘军,关于航空客运收益管理的一些基本概念,民航经济与技术, 1998, 196:37-41.
[6] BECKMANN M J, BOBKOWSKI F, Airline demand: analysis of some frequency distributions, Naval Res, 1985, 5:43-51.
[7] TAYLOR C J, The determination of Passenger Booking Levels, Proceedings 2nd Agifors Symposium, 1962:93-116.
[8] LYLE C, A Statistical Analysis of the Variability in Aircraft Occupancy, 10th Agifors, 1970, 45:39-90.
[9] SANNE V DE B, RICHARD F, NANDA P, Stochastic programming for multiple-leg network revenue management, European Journal of Operation Research,2002,137:72-92.
[10] LEE A O, Airline Reservation Forecasting: Probabilistic and Statistical Models of the Booking Process, 2005.
[11] ZICKUS J S, Forecasting for Airline Network Revenue Management: Revenue and Competitive Impacts, 2005.
[12] LYLE C, A Statistical Analysis of the Variability in Aircraft Occupancy, 10th Agifors,1970, 45:39-90.
[13] KOSTEN L.Een Mathematics model voor een reservings problem, Statist Neerland,1960,14:85-94
[14] ALSTRUP J, BOAS S, MADSEN O B G, Booking policy for flights with types of passengers, Europe Journal of Operations Research, 1986, 27:274-288.
[15] Subramanian J, Lautenbacher C.J, Stidham S.J, Airline Yield Management with Overbooking Cancellations and No Shows, Transportation Science, 1999, 33(2):147-167.
[16] Feng Y, P.Lin, B.Xiao, An Analysis of Airline Seat Control with Cancellations, In Yao D.D, Zhang H, Zhou X.Y, Stochastic Modeling and Optimization with Applications on Quenues, Finance, and Supply Chain, Springer-Verlag, 2002.
[17] LITTLEWOOD K, Forecasting and Control of Passenger bookings, 12th Agieors SymposiumProc, 1972:95-117.
[18] Peter P. BELOBABA, Air Travel Demand and Airline Seat Inventory Management. MIT, 1987, 67:45-87.
[19] Peter P. BELOBABA, Airline Yield Management, An Overview of Seat Inventory Control, Transportation Science, 1987, 92:63-72.
[20] VAN SLYKE R, MCGILL J I, Revenue management without forecasting or optimization: an adaptive algorithm for determining airline seat protection levels, Management Science, 2002, 46:760-775.
[21] BRUMELLE S L, MCGILL J I, Airline seat allocation with multiple nested fare class, Operation Research, 1993, 41:127-137.
[22] LEE T C, HERSH M, A model for dynamic airline seat inventory control with multiple seat bookings, Transportation Science, 1993, 27:252-265.
[23] KLEYWEGT A J, PAPASTAVOROU J D, The dynamic and stochastic Knapsack problem with random sized items, Operation Research,2001,49:26-41.
[24] VAN SLYKE R, YOUNG Y, Finite horizon stochastic Knapsacks with applications to yield management, Operation Research, 2000, 48:155-172.
[25] Youyi Feng, Baichun Xiao, A Continuous-Time Yield Management Model with Multiple Prices and Reversible Price Changes, Management Science, 2000, 57:644-657.
[26] Youyi Feng, Baichun Xiao, A Dynamic Airline Seat Inventory Control Model and Its Optimal Policy, Operations Research.2001, 58:938-949.
[27] Wen Zhao, Yu-Sheng Zheng, A Dynamic Model for Airline Seat Allocation with Passenger Diversion and No-Shows, Transportation Science.2001, 85:80-98.
[28]董裴君,航空公司网络舱位控制方法研究, [硕士学位论文],南京,南京航空航天大学,2007.
[29] Maglaras C, Meissner J. Dynamic pricing strategies for multiproduct revenue management Problems, Manufacturing and Service Operation Management, 2006, 8:136-148.
[30]梁海峰,国内航空公司实施收益管理的若干问题,民航经济与技术,2000,8:34-37.
[31]李艳华,对民航票价改革的进一步探讨,中国民航飞行学院学报,2003,5:41-42.
[32]甘江,票价结构与收益管理,航空运输, 2005, 5:38-40.
[33]孙庚,国内航空公司实施收益管理的若干问题,管理,2000,1:22-24.
[34]高强,航空收益管理若干关键问题的研究,[博士学位论文],南京,南京航空航天大学, 2006:11-40.
[35]高强,朱金福,蓝伯雄,国内航空公司实施收益管理的博弈分析,科研管理,2006,6:125-129.
[36]刘玮,航空客运收益管理中超售问题的研究,[硕士学位论文],南京,南京航空航天大学,2005.
[37]高强,朱金福,航空收益管理中非限化估计方法研究,预测, 2005, 24(5): 66-69.
[38]王春兰,航空公司收益管理中旅客舱位选择行为研究,[硕士学位论文],南京,南京航空航天大学, 2006.
[39]高强,朱金福,陈可嘉,航空收益管理中多航段舱位控制模型,交通运输工程学报,2005, 12:82-85.
[40]韩明亮,竞争环境下航空公司航线市场份额的预测方法,中国民航大学学报,2007,1: 42-44.
[41] Hugh Dunleavy, Westermann. Dieter Future of airline revenue management, Journal of Revenue and pricing Management, 2005, 78:380-383.
[42] Yoav Freund, Robert E .Schapire, Game theory, on-line prediction and boosting, Information and Computation, 1996, 45:325-332.
[43] Serguei Netessine, Robert A.Shumsky. Revenue Management Games, Management Science, 2001, 651:1-32.
[44] Serguei Netessine, Robert A.Shumsky. Revenue Management Games Horizontal and Vertical Competition, Management Science, 2005, 324:813-831.
[45] Michael Z.F.Li., Tae H.Oum. Seat Allocation Game on Flights with Two Fares, Operations Research, 1995, 98:231-245.
[46]梅虎,朱金福,汪侠,基于博弈分析的航空收益管理定价研究,预测,2006,6:45-49.
[47]高强,朱金福,蓝伯雄,国内航空公司实施收益管理的博弈分析,科研管理,2006,6:125-129.
[48]肖条军,博弈论及其应用,上海三联出版社, 2004:25-46.
[49] Sharbel EI-Haber, Muhammad EI-TaHa, Dynamic two-leg airline seat inventory control with overbooking, cancellations and no-shows, 2004, 79:57-98.
[50]夏剑锋,李宗平,基于二项式分布的航空机票超售模型,中国民航学院学报,2006,24(1): 49-52.
[2]刘军,邱蒬华,收益管理发展的背景和条件,管理, 2001, 2:42-44.
[3]刘军,邱蒬华,航空客运收益管理的结构模型,北京航空航天大学自然科学版,2000, 10:17-21.
[4]梁海峰,国内航空公司实施收益管理的若干问题,民航经济与技术, 2000,8:34-37.
[5]杨思梁,刘军,关于航空客运收益管理的一些基本概念,民航经济与技术, 1998, 196:37-41.
[6] BECKMANN M J, BOBKOWSKI F, Airline demand: analysis of some frequency distributions, Naval Res, 1985, 5:43-51.
[7] TAYLOR C J, The determination of Passenger Booking Levels, Proceedings 2nd Agifors Symposium, 1962:93-116.
[8] LYLE C, A Statistical Analysis of the Variability in Aircraft Occupancy, 10th Agifors, 1970, 45:39-90.
[9] SANNE V DE B, RICHARD F, NANDA P, Stochastic programming for multiple-leg network revenue management, European Journal of Operation Research,2002,137:72-92.
[10] LEE A O, Airline Reservation Forecasting: Probabilistic and Statistical Models of the Booking Process, 2005.
[11] ZICKUS J S, Forecasting for Airline Network Revenue Management: Revenue and Competitive Impacts, 2005.
[12] LYLE C, A Statistical Analysis of the Variability in Aircraft Occupancy, 10th Agifors,1970, 45:39-90.
[13] KOSTEN L.Een Mathematics model voor een reservings problem, Statist Neerland,1960,14:85-94
[14] ALSTRUP J, BOAS S, MADSEN O B G, Booking policy for flights with types of passengers, Europe Journal of Operations Research, 1986, 27:274-288.
[15] Subramanian J, Lautenbacher C.J, Stidham S.J, Airline Yield Management with Overbooking Cancellations and No Shows, Transportation Science, 1999, 33(2):147-167.
[16] Feng Y, P.Lin, B.Xiao, An Analysis of Airline Seat Control with Cancellations, In Yao D.D, Zhang H, Zhou X.Y, Stochastic Modeling and Optimization with Applications on Quenues, Finance, and Supply Chain, Springer-Verlag, 2002.
[17] LITTLEWOOD K, Forecasting and Control of Passenger bookings, 12th Agieors SymposiumProc, 1972:95-117.
[18] Peter P. BELOBABA, Air Travel Demand and Airline Seat Inventory Management. MIT, 1987, 67:45-87.
[19] Peter P. BELOBABA, Airline Yield Management, An Overview of Seat Inventory Control, Transportation Science, 1987, 92:63-72.
[20] VAN SLYKE R, MCGILL J I, Revenue management without forecasting or optimization: an adaptive algorithm for determining airline seat protection levels, Management Science, 2002, 46:760-775.
[21] BRUMELLE S L, MCGILL J I, Airline seat allocation with multiple nested fare class, Operation Research, 1993, 41:127-137.
[22] LEE T C, HERSH M, A model for dynamic airline seat inventory control with multiple seat bookings, Transportation Science, 1993, 27:252-265.
[23] KLEYWEGT A J, PAPASTAVOROU J D, The dynamic and stochastic Knapsack problem with random sized items, Operation Research,2001,49:26-41.
[24] VAN SLYKE R, YOUNG Y, Finite horizon stochastic Knapsacks with applications to yield management, Operation Research, 2000, 48:155-172.
[25] Youyi Feng, Baichun Xiao, A Continuous-Time Yield Management Model with Multiple Prices and Reversible Price Changes, Management Science, 2000, 57:644-657.
[26] Youyi Feng, Baichun Xiao, A Dynamic Airline Seat Inventory Control Model and Its Optimal Policy, Operations Research.2001, 58:938-949.
[27] Wen Zhao, Yu-Sheng Zheng, A Dynamic Model for Airline Seat Allocation with Passenger Diversion and No-Shows, Transportation Science.2001, 85:80-98.
[28]董裴君,航空公司网络舱位控制方法研究, [硕士学位论文],南京,南京航空航天大学,2007.
[29] Maglaras C, Meissner J. Dynamic pricing strategies for multiproduct revenue management Problems, Manufacturing and Service Operation Management, 2006, 8:136-148.
[30]梁海峰,国内航空公司实施收益管理的若干问题,民航经济与技术,2000,8:34-37.
[31]李艳华,对民航票价改革的进一步探讨,中国民航飞行学院学报,2003,5:41-42.
[32]甘江,票价结构与收益管理,航空运输, 2005, 5:38-40.
[33]孙庚,国内航空公司实施收益管理的若干问题,管理,2000,1:22-24.
[34]高强,航空收益管理若干关键问题的研究,[博士学位论文],南京,南京航空航天大学, 2006:11-40.
[35]高强,朱金福,蓝伯雄,国内航空公司实施收益管理的博弈分析,科研管理,2006,6:125-129.
[36]刘玮,航空客运收益管理中超售问题的研究,[硕士学位论文],南京,南京航空航天大学,2005.
[37]高强,朱金福,航空收益管理中非限化估计方法研究,预测, 2005, 24(5): 66-69.
[38]王春兰,航空公司收益管理中旅客舱位选择行为研究,[硕士学位论文],南京,南京航空航天大学, 2006.
[39]高强,朱金福,陈可嘉,航空收益管理中多航段舱位控制模型,交通运输工程学报,2005, 12:82-85.
[40]韩明亮,竞争环境下航空公司航线市场份额的预测方法,中国民航大学学报,2007,1: 42-44.
[41] Hugh Dunleavy, Westermann. Dieter Future of airline revenue management, Journal of Revenue and pricing Management, 2005, 78:380-383.
[42] Yoav Freund, Robert E .Schapire, Game theory, on-line prediction and boosting, Information and Computation, 1996, 45:325-332.
[43] Serguei Netessine, Robert A.Shumsky. Revenue Management Games, Management Science, 2001, 651:1-32.
[44] Serguei Netessine, Robert A.Shumsky. Revenue Management Games Horizontal and Vertical Competition, Management Science, 2005, 324:813-831.
[45] Michael Z.F.Li., Tae H.Oum. Seat Allocation Game on Flights with Two Fares, Operations Research, 1995, 98:231-245.
[46]梅虎,朱金福,汪侠,基于博弈分析的航空收益管理定价研究,预测,2006,6:45-49.
[47]高强,朱金福,蓝伯雄,国内航空公司实施收益管理的博弈分析,科研管理,2006,6:125-129.
[48]肖条军,博弈论及其应用,上海三联出版社, 2004:25-46.
[49] Sharbel EI-Haber, Muhammad EI-TaHa, Dynamic two-leg airline seat inventory control with overbooking, cancellations and no-shows, 2004, 79:57-98.
[50]夏剑锋,李宗平,基于二项式分布的航空机票超售模型,中国民航学院学报,2006,24(1): 49-52.