摘要
地下水既是一种宝贵的自然资源,又是环境的基本要素。当今世界所面临的“人口、资源、环境”三大问题,都直接或间接地与地下水资源有关。随着人口的不断增长,城市及工农业的迅速发展,人类对地下水的需求量急剧增加。然而过量开采第四纪松散沉积层中的地下水容易引起一系列的环境地质问题,尤其是地面沉降地质灾害问题。因此,在对地下水系统进行全面、科学分析的基础上,正确评价出地下水的水质和水量,并对可能产生的地面沉降问题进行预测、分析已成为人类对地下水资源进行合理开发利用的前提和基础。本文以杭州市第四纪松散孔隙含水系统为研究对象,评价了地下水的水质和可采量,分析了可能产生的地面沉降环境效应问题,主要研究内容如下:
(1)在前面研究杭州市第四纪松散孔隙含水系统水文地质特征的基础上,详细论述了地下水开采引起的地质环境问题。
(2)在充分了解研究区含水层水质历史和现状的前提下,采用随机选择因子的模糊综合评判法,对杭州市的水质进行了评价。
(3)以杭州第四纪孔隙含水层为研究对象,含水层可分为潜水含水层、承压含水层以及之间的粘性弱透水层。在系统分析该地区水文地质条件的基础上,建立了研究区的概念模型。
(4)在建立概念模型的基础上,进一步建立了研究区完整的三维有限差分非稳定流数学模型。选取2004年1月1日至2004年12月31日的实测水位资料,对模型的水文地质参数进行识别验证。
(5)利用识别的参数和验证后的模型预测了承压含水层水位降深分别控制在15m、20m和25m时,2010年、2020年和2030年的承压水可开采资源量。并在三种预测方案下,对相应的地面沉降环境效应进行分析。
Groundwater is one kind of precious natural resources and also a fundamental element of environment. "Population, resource, environment" these three large problems the world in the nowadays confronting with, are all connected with ground water resources directly or indirectly. With the unceasingly increasing of population and the promptly developing of city, industry and agriculture, the amounts of groundwater that human being needing are rapidly increasing. But, because of exploitation groundwater of Quaternary loose sediment leads series of environment geology, especially the land-subsidence. Therefore, analysis on groundwater water system roundly and accurately, carrying out accurate groundwater quality and quantity, and forecasting possible land subsidence, are the premise and basis that we make use of ground water resources effectively. The quaternary-loose-pore aquifer in HangZhou plain is studied.The groundwater quality and quantity is appraised, and analyzing the problem of possible land subsidence. The main content of the article as follows:
(1) On the basis of investigating Quaternary loose pore aquifer hydrogeololgy condition, geological environment problem owing to groundwater exploitation is dissertated in detail.
(2) Under the premise of full understanding the history and current situation of aquifer water quality, use the random selecting factor of blurred synthesis deciding law to evaluate the water quality in HangZhou.
(3) The object of the study is Quaternary pore aquifer of HangZhou plain .Aquifer can be divided into phreatic aquifer, weak permeable aquifer, the confined aquifer. On basis of carrying out system analysis to hydrogeololgy condition about this area, the concept model about studying area is built.
(4) On the basis of establishing the concept model, the entire three dimensional finite difference unsteady flow mathematical model is built.By using observation borehole datum from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2004, the hydro-geologic parameters are identified and calibrated.
(5) Using the model which have been distinguished and verified to forecast the confined aquifer, when the water table control during the period of 15 m, 20m 25m, calculate the quantity of confined water is calculated. Under the three forecast schemes, the relevant land subsidence environment effect is analyzed.
引文
[1] Partrick R, E Ford & J Quarles. Groundwater Contamination in the U.S.A University of Pennsvlvania Press, Philadelphia, 1984.
[2] Barcelo M. Contamination of groundwater:prevention,assessment, restoration,1990.
[3] Law A M, Kelton W D.Simulation Modeling and Analysis. New York:McGraw-Hill, Inc,1991: 22-38.
[4] M.P.Anderson and W.W.Woessner, Applied ground water modeling, simulation of flow and advective transport,Academic Press,1992.
[5] W.Gelhor, Stochastic subsurface hydrology, Prentice-Hall, EnglewoodCliffs, 1993.
[6] 4.P.Vander Heijde, P.Y.Bachmat, etaI.Groundwater management: The use of numerical models, AGU,Washington,D.C. 1985.
[7] 薛禹群,谢春红.水文地质学的数值法[M].煤炭工业出版社,1979:58-69.
[8] 罗焕炎,陈雨孙.地下水运动的数值模拟[M].中国建筑出版社,1988:21-87.
[9] 孙讷正.地下水流的数值模型和数值方法[M].地质出版社,1981:35-59.
[10] 薛禹群,吴吉春.地下水数值模拟在我国——回顾与展望[J].水文地质工程地质,1997 (4):21-24.
[11] 薛禹群,吴吉春.面临21世纪的中国地下水模拟问题[J].水文地质工程地质,1999(5):1-3
[12] Wang, H.F & J.Peraric. Introduction to Groundwater Modeling. W.H. Freeman and company, 1982.
[13] Illangasekare, T. & H.J.Morel-seytoux. Stream-Aquifer Influnce Coefficients as Tools for Simulation and Management. Water Resources Research, 1982,18(1).
[14] Eddebbarh, AI, Carlson, Fritz, Hemker, C.J. Groundwater modeling using an integrated large-capacity finite-element model for multiple apuifer groundwater flow. Proceedings of the 1996 Symposium on Subsurface Fluid Flow Modeling, Jun 22-23, 1996,1:22-23.
[15] Hsieh PA, Freckleton. Docunmentation of a computer program to simulate horizontal-flow barriers using the U.S. Geological Survey's modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model[R]. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report, 1993,92-477.
[16] Gambolati G, Monaco A, Galeati G, et al. New approaches and applications in subsurface flow modeling: 3D finite element analysis of dewateringfor an electro -nuclear plan [A]. In: Groundwater Flow and Quality Modeling[C].Boston: D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1998. 11-15.
[17] McDonald, G. Michael & Arlen W. Harbaugh. A Modular Three-dimensional Finite -difference Ground-water Flow Model, United States Government Printing Office Washington, 1988.
[18] Harbaugh. A. W. & McDonald.M.G. Programmer's Documentation for Modflow, An update to the the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Finite-Difference Ground-Water Flow Model[R]. U.S.G.S., Open-file Report, 1996, 96-486.
[19] Wen-Hsing Chiang, Wolfgang Kinzelbach, 3D-Groundwater Modeling with PMIN-A simulation System for Modeling Groundwater Flow and Pollution, Spingger, Berlin,2001.
[20] 朱少莲,刘丽海.污水水质的模糊综合评价法[J].给水排水.1999.25(10):22-24.
[21] 孙靖南,邹志红,任广平.模糊综合评价在天然水体水质评价中的应用研究[J].环境污染治理技术与设备.2005.6(2).
[22] 贾陈忠,秦巧燕,张竹清等.模糊数学在地表水环境质量评价中的应用[J].北方环境.2004.29(6):73-77.
[23] 李进,陈益滨,师伟等.模糊综合评价法在地下水水质评价中的应用[J].地下水,2006,(02).
[24] 凌敏华,左其亭.水质评价的模糊数学方法及其应用研究[J].人民黄河,2006,(01).
[25] 周林飞,高石彪,许士国.模糊数学在湿地水质评价中应用的研究[J].水利水电技术.2005.36(1):35-38.
[26] 刘广吉,郭淑文.灰色聚类法在水质评价中的应用[J].水电技术,1988,12:1-5.
[27] 薛建军,姚桂基.人工神经网络在水质评价中的应用[J].水文,1997,3:37-39.
[28] 李靖.人工神经网络在高原湖泊水质评价中的应用[J].云南环境科学,1998,17(2):24-26.
[29] 倪深海,白玉慧.BP神经网络模型在地下水水质评价中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,8:124-127.
[30] Lapedes A, Farber. Nolinear Signal Processing Using Neutral Networks: Prediction and System Modeling[R]. Technical Report LA-UR-87-2662.Los Alamos National Laboratory. Los Alamos. NM, 1987.
[31] Werbos P J. Genralization of Back Propagation with Application to a Recurrent Gas Market Model[J]. Neural Networks, 1988,(1):339-356.
[32] Chakraborty K et al. Forecasting the Behavior of Multivariate Time Series Using Neural Networks[J].Neural Networks, 1992,5:961-970.
[33] Tang Z, Almeida C & Fishwick P A. Timeseries forecasing using neural networks vs. Box-Jenkins methodology[J]. Simulation coundils, ins 1991:303-310.
[34] Holger R.Marier Graeme & C. Dandy. The use ofartifical neural networks for the predict- tion of water quality parameters[J]. Water Resources, 1996:1013-1022.
[35] 林洪泉.浙江省杭州市地下水资源开发利用规划报告[R].杭州市林水局、浙江应用地质研究所,1999.12.
[36] 吴孟杰.浙江省杭州市区域水文地质调查报告[R].浙江省地质环境监测总站,1999.12.
[37] 吴孟杰,赵建明,赖炜福.杭州市地下水水资源开发和保护规划图说明书[R].浙江省地质环境监测总站,1998.12.
[38] 周品国,童照远.杭州市袁浦及东洲岛地段供水水文地质初步勘测报告[R].浙江省水文地质工程地质大队,1982.10.
[39] 赵建康.浙江省地质环境监测综合报告(1991-1995)[R].浙江省地质环境监测总站,1997.12.
[40] 章松祝,黄正荣.杭州市水资源综合规划(送审稿)[R].杭州市水利水电勘测设计院,杭州市水文水资源监测总站,2006.05.
[41] 周品国,童照远.浙江省萧山市地下水资源开发利用规划报告(送审稿)[R].萧山市农机水利局,浙江省应用地质研究所,1998.12.
[42] 赵建康.浙江省地质环境监测综合报告(1996-2000)[R].浙江省环境监测总站,2002.03.
[43] 楼峰青,许红燕.余杭区水资源调查评价及供水水源论证(送审稿)[R].浙江省水文局,2005.01.
[44] 马惠忠.浙江省杭州市余杭县三家村供水水文地质详查(初勘)报告[R].浙江身水文地质工程地质大队,浙江省工程勘察院,1990.12.
[45] 吴孟杰.浙江省余杭市区域水文地质调查报告[R].浙江省地质环境监测总站,1998.12.
[46] 朱川.2000年杭州市地下水资源及环境地质问题预测研究报告[R].浙江省水文地质工程地质大队。1985.03.
[47] W.M.ALLey et al. Sustainability of Groundwater Resources. USGS Circular 1186,1999
[48] Prochazkova Let al. Impact of diffuse pollution on water quality of the Vltava River (Slapy Reservoir)[J]. Water Science and Technology, 1996,30(4-5): 145-152.
[49] Sansone U et al. 137Cs and 90Sr in water and suspended particulate matter of the Dnieper River-Reservoirs System (Ukraine)[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 1996,186(3): 257-271.
[50] Teshey RO & Hinckley TM. Impact of water Level changer on woody riparian and wetland communities,Vol. 1 PLant and Soil Responses to Flooding[M]. Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, DC, 1990,67-90.
[51] William M. Alley & Thomas E. Reilly. Sustainability of Ground-Water Resource, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1186[J]. Denver, Colorado:1999(6):2-4.
[52] W.M.Alley et al. Flow and Storage in Groundwater Systems, Science,2002,296:1985 -1990.
[53] Canter lW. Environmental Impact of Water Resources Projects[J].Lewis publishers, Inc, Michiran, 1985,34-38.
[54] 刘彬,周玉娟,奕清华.模糊数学在地下水质综合评价中的应用[J].河北建筑科技学院学报,2006,(01).
[55] 马丽平,杨立春.模糊聚类法在水质评价中的应用——以贵州三岔河某监测断面为例[J].贵州科学,2006,(01).
[56] Li Qi, Li Yan, Li Defeng. Fuzzy optimization model and application based on improved AHP for indexes weight calculation. Journal of North China Institute of Water. Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,2002,23(2):4-6.
[57] Kamal. Assessment of pollution of the fiver Buriganga, Bangladesh, using a water quality model. Water Science and Technology, 1999,40(2):129-136.
[58] 潘理黎,黄小华,严国奇等.地表水模糊综合评价中隶属度的图算方法[J].安全与环境学报.2004,4(6):11-13.
[59] 丁春梅.模糊综合评价模型在东钱湖水质评价中的应用研究[J].浙江水利科技,2006,(02).
[60] 郜慧,金辉.模糊综合评判法在沙坪河流域水质评价中的应用[J].人民珠江,2005,(06).
[61] 杨志辉,徐辉.基于最优模糊聚类的地下水质评价[J].水利经济,2006,(01).
[62] 宋海亮,吕锡武,李先宁.太湖西段入湖河流水质模糊综合评价[J].安全与环境学报,2006,(01).
[63] 邹晓颖,大气环境质量评价的模糊综合评判模型[J].湖南有色金属,2006,(01).
[64] 卢文喜.地下水运动数值模拟过程中边界条件问题探讨[J].水利学报,2003(3):34-36.
[65] 洪景涛,刘翔,严涛.淄博市大武水源地地下水流场数值模型研究[J].水文,2003 (4):7-10.
[66] 李俊亭.地下水流数值模拟[M].地质出版社,1989:20-34.
[67] Kinzelbach, W.Groundwater Modeling-An Introduction with Sample Programs in BASIC[J]. Elsevier science Publishers, Amseterdm, 1986.
[68] 邵景力,崔亚莉等.黄河下游影响带(河南段)三维地下水流数值模拟模型及其应用[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2003,33(1):55-58.
[69] 陈崇喜,唐仲华.地下水流动问题数值方法[M].中国地质大学出版社,1990:58-69.
[70] 宋西平,寇广潮.地下水数值模拟面参数和水文参数研究的重要性[J].地下水,2001 (2):63-64.
[71] N.Samani a, M.Kompani-Zare, D.A.Barry.MODFLOW equipped with a new methed for the accrate simulation of axisymmetric flow[J].Advances in Water Resources,2004,27: 31-45.
[72] Osm.an,Yassin Z., Bruen, Michael P. Modelling stream-Aquifer seepage in an alluvial aquifer:An improved loosing-stream package for MODFLOW[J].Joumal of Hydrology, 2002, (264):69-86.
[73] Glasgow, Harry S., Fortney, Matthew D.MODFLOW 2000 Head Uncertainty, a First-Order Second Moment Method[J]. National Ground Water Assocition, 2003,41:342-350.
[74] M.P. Anderson & W.W.Woessner. Applied Groundwater Modeling Simulation of Flow and Advetive Transport, Academic Press, San Diego, 1992.
[75] 顾尔祚.流体力学中的有限差分法基础[M].上海交通大学出版社,1988:8-69.
[76] 陈锁忠.MODFLOW三维有限差分地下水渗流模型的原理[J].江苏地矿信息,1999(1):21-23.
[77] 陈玉田.偏微分方程数值解法[M].河海大学出版社,1999:58-69.
[78] 徐萃薇,孙绳武.计算方法引论[M].高等教育出版社,2001:58-69.
[79] 吴剑锋,朱学愚.由MODFLOW浅谈地下水流数值模拟软件的发展趋势[J].工程勘察,2000(2):12-15.
[80] 郭卫星,卢国平.MODFLOW三维有限差分地下水流模型[M].南京大学地球科学系,1998:58-69.
[81] 武强,董东林等.水资源评价的可视化专业软件(Visual Modflow)与应用潜力[J].水文地质工程地质,1999(5):21-23.
[82] M.G.McDonald,A.W.Harbaugh.A modular three dimensional finite difference groundwater flow model. 1988.
[83] User's manual for Visual MODFLOW.Waterloo Hydrogeologic Inc. 1999.
[84] 蒋亚萍,陈余道.MODFLOW——套水文地质学实用计算软件[J].广西地质,1999 (3):75-78.
[85] Jorn Hoffmann, S.A.Leake, etc. MODFLOW-2000 Ground-Water Model--User Guide to the Subsidence and Aquifer-System CompactionPackage[R].2000.
[86] User's manual for Visual MODFLOW[R].Waterloo Hydrogeologic Inc. 1999.
[87] Shen S L, Tohno I, Nishigaki M, Miura N. 3D-analysis of land subsidence due to withdrawal of groundwater [A]. Geotechnical Engineering in Urban Construction [C].Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2003.431-436.
[88] Chai J C, Shen S L, Zhu H H, Zhang X L. Land subsidence due to groundwater drawdown in Shanghai [J]. Geotechnique, 2004, 54(2): 143-148.
[89] Miau B Su,C L Su,C J Chang,et al.A numerical model of ground deformation induced by single well pumping[J]. Computer and Geotechnics, 1998(2):39-60.
[90] Burbey.T.J, D.C.Helm.Modeling three-dimensional deformation in response to pumping of unconsolidated aquifers [J].Environmental and environmental 5, 1999, no.2:199-212.
[91] Wen Hsing Chiang, Wolfgang Kinzelbach.3D Groundwater modeling with PMWIN-A Simulation System for Modeling Groundwater Flow and Pollution[M]. Springer, 2001.
[92] Poland, J.E, and Ireland, R.L., 1988, Land subsidence in the Santa Clara Valley, California, as of 1982: [A] U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 497-F, 61p.
[93] T R Shearer. A numerical model to calculate land subsidence, applied at Han gu in China [J]. Engineering Geology, 1998, 49(2):85-93.
[94] G Gambolati, R Allan Frezze. Mathematical simulation of the subsidence of Venice [J]. Theory Water Resource Research, 1973,9(3):721-733.
[95] J P His, J P Carter, J C Small.Surface subsidence and drawdown of the watertable due to pumping [J]. Geotech-nique44.1994(3):381-396.
[96] 周念清,朱学愚等.徐州市地下水资源的数值模拟与评价[J].勘察科学技术,2003(5):19-23.
[97] 朱学愚,钱孝星,刘新仁.地下水资源评价[M].南京大学出版社,1987.
[98] 张蔚榛.地下水非稳定流计算和地下水资源评价[M].科学出版社,1983.
[99] 周念清,朱蓉,朱学愚.Modflow在宿迁市地下水资源评价中的应用[J].水文地质工程地质,2000(6):9-13.
[100] 高正夏.地下水资源评价与计算[M].河海大学土木工程学院地岩系,1997:58-69.
[101] S.G.Li & Q.S.Huang. Interactive and Real Time Groundwater Modeling: An Innovative Software Tool for Active Student Learning and Exploration. Proceedings of 1999 International Water Resources Engineering Conference, 1999,7(8).
[102] 陈葆仁等.地下水动态及其预测[M].科学出版社,1988:58-69.
[103] 骆祖江,付延玲.模型技术在地下水系统动态预测中的应用[J].工程勘察,1997(5):29-33.