祁连山树木年轮记录的千年湿度变化及其驱动机制研究
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摘要
祁连山位于欧亚大陆内部,属温带半干旱区,对全球气候变化响应十分敏感。作为重要的地理气候分界线,在我国自然地理上占有非常重要的地位。该区域深居内陆,远离海洋,气候较为干旱,尤其是低海拔地区,多为荒漠、草原和戈壁景。祁连山的森林也被干旱荒漠、半荒漠、草地、沙漠和盐碱地所包围,树木生长对气候变化非常敏感。
随着区域气候变化及人类活动加剧,该区生态环境也日趋恶化。表现为森林、灌丛退化;冰川退缩、雪线上升、水资源危机;生物多样性下降;也严重影响到了当地的经济活动。故祁连山区气候变化的规律及环境恶化的原因和机制,已不仅是具有重要意义的科学问题,同时是制定该区可持续性发展战略的重要决策依据。而要解决这一问题,我们首先要从分析该区历史时期气候变化的过程及规律入手。
树木年轮气候学以其精度高、连续性强、分布广泛及样本易得等优势,在该区研究中正被广泛采用。20世纪70年代和90年代,在祁连山发现近千年的树木年轮,展现了在该区进行长尺度树木年轮研究的潜力。本文选取祁连山东部-武威皇台(YKS)、中部.张掖肃南(两个样点HYG、GJG)和西部.酒泉祁丰(SMZ)的森林下限的四个树轮宽度指数序列用于该地区的气候变化研究。利用最长的中部HYG长序列对过去千年来的干旱指数进行重建分析,并利用其它较短的年表对比分析了祁连山区东、中、西部的差异。同时收集了来自天山、青藏高原以及华山、贺兰山的部分树轮序列,进行湿度变化的空间格局分析,并与全球海表温数据进行相关分析,以期对区域湿度变化的驱动机制有个更清晰的认识,特别是祁连山地区湿度变化影响机制。主要得出了以下结论:
1、来自祁连山东中西部的四个树轮样点的样芯敏感性都比较高,样芯间一致性好,为提取稳定可靠的区域气候变化信息提供了保证。四组样芯组内样芯间相关系数的均值约为0.6,其中西部SMZ样点(0.84)相关最高,东部的YKS样点(0.36)相关较低,四个样点所有样芯放到一起,80%以上样芯与主序列的相关系数大于0.6。相比较而言,西部的树木生长对气候的响应较东部敏感,可能源于祁连山区自东向西水分逐渐递减,树木生长环境越来越恶劣,湿度变化对树木的生长影响越来越大。
按照国际树轮学研究标准分别建立各个采样点的树轮宽度年表,选取样本总解释量(EPS)大于0.85时的样本量作为复本要求的最低样本量以保证年表信息的可靠性,最终确定可靠年表长度。四个年表统计特征的显示:祁连山东部的年表敏感度低于西部的年表,年表公共区间主要特征值对比也发现相同的结果。树轮年表与临近气象站点的温度、降水数据以及帕尔默干旱指标(Palmer droughtseverity index,PDSI)栅格点数据的相关分析结果表明:研究区树木生长与温度和降水都有联系,但与干旱指标的相关最为显著。同时气象站点的海拔位置一般低于采样点海拔高度,这对相关分析结果影响较大。
2、利用帕尔默干旱指数(PDSI)全球数据库,选取覆盖中国西北地区的56个PDSI栅格点数据,对1953-2003年间各个季节均值和年平均值进行旋转经验正交函数(REOF)分析,以了解仪器记录的50年来西北地区的湿度空间变化的地域分异特征。REOF空间分区结果发现西北地区各个季节均值和年均值均表现出较为一致的主要空间异常型,依据PDSI年均值数据可以将中国西北地区划分为5个空间型:北疆型、南疆型、高原北部型、蒙古西部型以及西北东部型。各个空间型特征点的PDSI序列及二项式拟合对比发现西北东部、西部存在完全相反的干湿变化:西北西部主要受西风影响,自80年代开始有逐渐变湿的趋势;西北东部主要受亚洲季风的影响,有逐渐变干的倾向,特别是夏秋季,西北地区东南部变干的趋势更加明显。西北地区受西风、亚洲季风以及青藏高原的共同影响,在全球变暖的情景下,不同区域的干湿状况的响应存在较大的差异。
选取亚洲中部干旱区、亚洲季风区以及两者过渡区域的较为典型的和湿度相关的已发表的树轮序列,对过去150年的湿度变化进行了区域对比分析。结果表明在过去的150年中,位于亚洲季风区和过渡区范围内的树轮序列对亚洲夏季风强度变化响应极为敏感,但是不同的时期东亚季风、印度季风两个亚洲季风子系统对各样点影响的强度却有差异,其长期变化和亚洲中部干旱区样点序列的变化完全不同。在最近的150年中,主要受印度季风影响区的湿度变化似乎与西风系统存在一定联系。同时,在最近的50年来,位于季风区和过渡区的样点,除了贺兰山区树轮序列之外,其它均表现为干-湿-干的变化趋势,在80年代后期变干趋势增强,可能与近年来亚洲季风减弱有很大的关联。而且各个区域的湿度变化趋势与PDSI所反映的西北地区湿度变化情况非常一致,具有在更长时间尺度和更广的空间范围内研究湿度变化的巨大潜力。同时树轮序列间的空间对比显示了历史文档记录的过去120年来两次严重的干旱事件。由此可见,不同区域的树木年轮异常生长的共时性可以很好的用于重建历史时期异常的旱涝事件,能为评估历史时期的旱涝事件提供更为详细客观的依据。
3、在更长的时间尺度上,利用来自祁连山中部的千年树轮年表序列,通过校准西北地区56个PDSI栅格点数据的REOF分区信号,重建了西北地区中南部公元775年以来的区域帕尔默干旱指数。重建结果表明,过去千年来西北中南部地区干湿变化频繁,极端的旱涝现象比较常见,不过严重的旱灾在整个时期均存在,而严重的涝灾集中出现在序列的两端。干湿变化的波动在不同时期存在很大的差别,表现为暖期(中世纪暖期,900-1300年;二十世纪变暖,1900年以后)存在大幅低频的干湿波动,而冷期(小冰期,1300-1850年)存在小幅高频的干湿波动特征。从整体上看,西北中南部地区过去千年来呈暖湿冷干的气候状况。干旱重建序列成功的反映了过去500年来历史文献中记录的西北地区的几次严重的持续的干旱事件。另外,从干旱事件发生的频率以及持续时间上看,1920-30年代的西北地区干旱事件在过去千年中也许并不是最严重的,公元840-880和1100-1127年间的干旱事件情况似乎更为严重。这些严重的干旱事件对人类生活和社会结构造成了巨大的影响。
4、多窗谱分析和小波分析表明祁连山中部地区在过去的千年中存在准2-3年的短周期,以及30-50年,70-120年的长周期,整个序列都存在的短周期,可能与亚洲季风系统存在一定的关联;而主要位于序列两端的长尺度周期可能与太阳活动有关。同时收集了来自季风区、西风区的气候代用指标进行了对比研究,探讨分析气候变化的可能的驱动机制,结果显示:在过去的千年,影响祁连山中部地区的气候系统是不断变化的,情况较为复杂。整体上看,在公元1350年之前,该区域树木生长受东亚夏季风的影响更为显著,而在1550之后,西风的作用加强,祁连山中部树轮序列受西风以及东亚夏季风的共同影响,特别是在最近的100年中,西风的作用似乎更为强烈。
不同区域的树轮序列与全球4-6月的海表温均值之间的相关分析结果也显示在过去的120年中,亚洲中部干旱区的天山样点受西风的持续控制,华山样点、贺兰山样点受东亚季风的影响,都兰、治多样点主要受印度季风的影响。而祁连山的情况最为特殊,中西部地区在过去的120年中可能更多的受印度季风的影响,而东部与东亚夏季风联系更为紧密。
The Qilian Mountain is located in the interior of Eurasia and is dominated by semiarid climate. As an important geographical and climatic boundary in China, this area is particularly sensitive to global change. Due to the far distance from the ocean, the climate is comparatively arid, especially in the area with low elevation, which is mostly occupied by desert, grassland and Gobi. The forests are also surrounded by the arid desert, semi-desert, meadow and salina in the Qilian Mountain where the tree's growth is very sensitive to the climate change.
With the regional climate changes and the enhanced human activities, the ecological environment is seriously deteriorated in this region over the past years. The forests and grasslands are continuously degrading. The glaciers are retreating and the snow line is rising. The water resource is more and more hard up. The habitant activities and economy development are also affected profoundly. To examine the reasons and mechanism of the ecological environment changes in the Qilian Mountain, the history of environment change in this region should be studied firstly. It is not only an important scientific issue, but also urgent realistic problem to establish the strategy of the regional sustainable development.
Because of the accurate dating, continuous record, high resolution (annual), accurate measuring of the ring width, easy sampling and duplicating, the tree ring data is used widely as an important archive in paleoclimate reconstruction. In the 1970s and 1990s, the discovery of thousand year long-lived trees and a number of pioneer studies demonstrated that the Qilian Mountain was a great potential area for the tree-ring research of timescale from centuries to millennia. The main conclusions are followed:
1. Four tree-ring series from the east part (YKS, Huangtai, Wuwei), middle part (HYG and GJG, Sunan, Zhangye) and west part (SMZ, Qifeng, Jiuquan) of Qilian Mountain were employed to analyze the moisture variability. HYG, the oldest series from the middle part of Qilian Mountain among the four tree-ring series, was used to investigate the climate change in millennium time scale, and the other tree-ring series were employed to compare with each other.
All the cores in four tree-ring sample sites showed a high sensitivity as well as a well consistency among tree-ring cores. Therefore, all the cores could be used for cross-dating very well, which might reflect the influence of the same climate factor. The average correlation coefficient among cores is about 0.6. The highest correlation coefficient occurred in SMZ from the west part of Qialian Mountain(0.84), and the lowest was 0.36 from YKS in the east part of Qilian Mountain. Most of the coefficients were around 0.6 or higher. The growth of tree-rings from the west part is more sensitive than that from the east part, the main cause of which may be the water deficiency resulting from the decreasing of moisture gradually from east to west in the northwestern China.
Following the criterion for developing the tree-ring chronology, we constructed the tree-ring chronology for each sample site and then identified the reliable chronology in accordance with expressed population signal (EPS) >0.85. The statistical characteristics of each chronology presented that the sensitivity of eastern chronology was lowest and the sensitivity of western chronology was highest. The result of comparison among the main statistics in common intervals also showed the similar feature. The results of correlation analysis between tree-ring chronology and climate data in the meteorological station nearby indicated that the tree-ring growth correlated with both temperature and precipitation. However, the soil moisture variability in warm season had the greatest influence on the tree-ring growth. The altitude difference between sampling site and the meteorological station may increase the correlation coefficient.
2. Using the global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) data set, the seasonal and annual PDSI mean values of 56 grid points covering 1953-2003 over northwestern China were analyzed by rotated experience orthogonal function (REOF) to evaluate the characteristics of moisture variability in the northwestern China. The results showed that the seasonal and annual mean displayed similar anomaly regions. Furthermore there were five main anomaly regions on the northwestern China based on the annual PDSI mean, which are the northern and southern parts of Xinjiang, northern part of plateau, western part of Inner Mongolia and eastern part of northwestern China. The opposite changes of dry-wet conditions were discovered after comparing the curves of feature point series and binomial fit between the eastern and western parts of northwestern China: In the western part of northwestern China influenced by westerly, a trend of wetting gradually occurred since 1980. On the contrary, a trend of drying gradually occurred in the eastern part of northwestern China mainly influenced by Asia monsoon, and especially in summer and autumn, there was a notable trend of drying over the southeastern part of northwestern China. The northwestern China is obviously affected by westerly, Asia monsoon and Tibetan Plateau. There are differences among the responses of dry-wet condition to the global warming in different regions.
The comparison of the four tree-ring chronologies and other tree-rings series from the central Asian area, Asian monsoon area and the transitional zone, was then employed to analyze the moisture change in the past 150 years. The results demonstrated that those tree-ring series from the Asian monsoon area and the transitional zone preserved more signals of summer Asian monsoon in the last 150 years. However, as the sub-systems of summer Asian monsoon, East Asian monsoon and Indian monsoon influence the tree-ring sites diversely in different periods. And the long-term variations of these tree-ring series were quite different from those in the central Asian area. Except for the series from Helan Mountain, those series from Asian monsoon area and the transitional zone all showed the dry-wet-dry long term trends of moisture change in the recent 50 years. Especially, a trend of drying was apparent since the late of 1980s, which may correlate with the weakening of Asian monsoon recently. Furthermore, the trend of moisture change recorded in all series from each area was similar to the prior results from REOF analysis. The comparison of different tree-rings series captured two severe drought events successfully and suggested that the extending area and influences of the two severe drought were larger than the results documented by history writings.
3. A millennium-long tree-ring-width chronology from the middle Qilian Mountains in northwestern China had been used to reconstruct March-September drought there since 775 AD. A rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of 56 PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) grid points was employed to calibrate the tree-ring chronology. Our reconstruction indicated that the change of dry and wet varied frequently in the south-middle part of northwestern China (SMNC) during the past millennium. The extreme drought and wet events were common. However, the severe drought events occurred in the whole period while severe wet events mainly occurred at the beginning and the end of the reconstruction series. The fluctuation of drought and wet presented the great difference in different periods. The reconstruction showed large amplitudes and low-frequency fluctuations in warm conditions but small amplitudes and high-frequency fluctuations in cold conditiongs. In general, the SMNC showed a warm-wet and cold-dry climate sequence in the past thousand years. Furthermore, the drought reconstruction not only revealed the long-term pattern of drought variability, but also successfully captured several extreme drought events recorded in local historical documents for the past 500 years. According to the frequency and duration of drought, the 1920-30s extreme drought event was not the only one for the past millennium. Two more drought events occurred in the periods of 840-880 AD and 1100-1127 AD may equal or severer than it. The regional drought events were in well agreement with the decline of population and the change of ancient dynasty during the past millennium in China.
4. Both multi-taper spectral analysis and wavelet analysis indicated periods of drought in the reconstruction that are consistent with those associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon and perhaps even solar activity. Therefore, the Asian Summer Monsoon and solar activity were possibly the driving mechanism of the climate change in the Qilian Mountain. Compared with the proxies associated with Asian monsoon and westerlies in the past millennium, the tree-ring chronology demonstrated that the Asian monsoon had a strong influence before 1350 AD. After 1550 AD, however, a combined influence of both Asian monsoon and westerlies was apparent. Especially, the influence of westerlies on the tree-ring growth seem more obvious during the past 100 years.
The correlation analysis of tree-ring series mentioned above and the global sea surface temperature in June was used to evaluate the possible forcing mechanism of climate further. The results demonstrated that, in the past 150 years, sampling site in the Tianshan Mountain was controlled by westerly while the sampling sites in Hua Mountain and Helan Mountain were influenced by East Asian monsoon. The sampling sites in Dulan and Zhiduo were mainly affected by Indian monsoon. Nevertheless, the forcing mechanism of climate in Qilian Mountain was still complex. The middle-west part of Qilian Mountain was mainly influenced by Indian summer monsoon in the past 120 years while the east part of Qilian Mountain seems correlated closely with East Asian summer monsoon.
随着区域气候变化及人类活动加剧,该区生态环境也日趋恶化。表现为森林、灌丛退化;冰川退缩、雪线上升、水资源危机;生物多样性下降;也严重影响到了当地的经济活动。故祁连山区气候变化的规律及环境恶化的原因和机制,已不仅是具有重要意义的科学问题,同时是制定该区可持续性发展战略的重要决策依据。而要解决这一问题,我们首先要从分析该区历史时期气候变化的过程及规律入手。
树木年轮气候学以其精度高、连续性强、分布广泛及样本易得等优势,在该区研究中正被广泛采用。20世纪70年代和90年代,在祁连山发现近千年的树木年轮,展现了在该区进行长尺度树木年轮研究的潜力。本文选取祁连山东部-武威皇台(YKS)、中部.张掖肃南(两个样点HYG、GJG)和西部.酒泉祁丰(SMZ)的森林下限的四个树轮宽度指数序列用于该地区的气候变化研究。利用最长的中部HYG长序列对过去千年来的干旱指数进行重建分析,并利用其它较短的年表对比分析了祁连山区东、中、西部的差异。同时收集了来自天山、青藏高原以及华山、贺兰山的部分树轮序列,进行湿度变化的空间格局分析,并与全球海表温数据进行相关分析,以期对区域湿度变化的驱动机制有个更清晰的认识,特别是祁连山地区湿度变化影响机制。主要得出了以下结论:
1、来自祁连山东中西部的四个树轮样点的样芯敏感性都比较高,样芯间一致性好,为提取稳定可靠的区域气候变化信息提供了保证。四组样芯组内样芯间相关系数的均值约为0.6,其中西部SMZ样点(0.84)相关最高,东部的YKS样点(0.36)相关较低,四个样点所有样芯放到一起,80%以上样芯与主序列的相关系数大于0.6。相比较而言,西部的树木生长对气候的响应较东部敏感,可能源于祁连山区自东向西水分逐渐递减,树木生长环境越来越恶劣,湿度变化对树木的生长影响越来越大。
按照国际树轮学研究标准分别建立各个采样点的树轮宽度年表,选取样本总解释量(EPS)大于0.85时的样本量作为复本要求的最低样本量以保证年表信息的可靠性,最终确定可靠年表长度。四个年表统计特征的显示:祁连山东部的年表敏感度低于西部的年表,年表公共区间主要特征值对比也发现相同的结果。树轮年表与临近气象站点的温度、降水数据以及帕尔默干旱指标(Palmer droughtseverity index,PDSI)栅格点数据的相关分析结果表明:研究区树木生长与温度和降水都有联系,但与干旱指标的相关最为显著。同时气象站点的海拔位置一般低于采样点海拔高度,这对相关分析结果影响较大。
2、利用帕尔默干旱指数(PDSI)全球数据库,选取覆盖中国西北地区的56个PDSI栅格点数据,对1953-2003年间各个季节均值和年平均值进行旋转经验正交函数(REOF)分析,以了解仪器记录的50年来西北地区的湿度空间变化的地域分异特征。REOF空间分区结果发现西北地区各个季节均值和年均值均表现出较为一致的主要空间异常型,依据PDSI年均值数据可以将中国西北地区划分为5个空间型:北疆型、南疆型、高原北部型、蒙古西部型以及西北东部型。各个空间型特征点的PDSI序列及二项式拟合对比发现西北东部、西部存在完全相反的干湿变化:西北西部主要受西风影响,自80年代开始有逐渐变湿的趋势;西北东部主要受亚洲季风的影响,有逐渐变干的倾向,特别是夏秋季,西北地区东南部变干的趋势更加明显。西北地区受西风、亚洲季风以及青藏高原的共同影响,在全球变暖的情景下,不同区域的干湿状况的响应存在较大的差异。
选取亚洲中部干旱区、亚洲季风区以及两者过渡区域的较为典型的和湿度相关的已发表的树轮序列,对过去150年的湿度变化进行了区域对比分析。结果表明在过去的150年中,位于亚洲季风区和过渡区范围内的树轮序列对亚洲夏季风强度变化响应极为敏感,但是不同的时期东亚季风、印度季风两个亚洲季风子系统对各样点影响的强度却有差异,其长期变化和亚洲中部干旱区样点序列的变化完全不同。在最近的150年中,主要受印度季风影响区的湿度变化似乎与西风系统存在一定联系。同时,在最近的50年来,位于季风区和过渡区的样点,除了贺兰山区树轮序列之外,其它均表现为干-湿-干的变化趋势,在80年代后期变干趋势增强,可能与近年来亚洲季风减弱有很大的关联。而且各个区域的湿度变化趋势与PDSI所反映的西北地区湿度变化情况非常一致,具有在更长时间尺度和更广的空间范围内研究湿度变化的巨大潜力。同时树轮序列间的空间对比显示了历史文档记录的过去120年来两次严重的干旱事件。由此可见,不同区域的树木年轮异常生长的共时性可以很好的用于重建历史时期异常的旱涝事件,能为评估历史时期的旱涝事件提供更为详细客观的依据。
3、在更长的时间尺度上,利用来自祁连山中部的千年树轮年表序列,通过校准西北地区56个PDSI栅格点数据的REOF分区信号,重建了西北地区中南部公元775年以来的区域帕尔默干旱指数。重建结果表明,过去千年来西北中南部地区干湿变化频繁,极端的旱涝现象比较常见,不过严重的旱灾在整个时期均存在,而严重的涝灾集中出现在序列的两端。干湿变化的波动在不同时期存在很大的差别,表现为暖期(中世纪暖期,900-1300年;二十世纪变暖,1900年以后)存在大幅低频的干湿波动,而冷期(小冰期,1300-1850年)存在小幅高频的干湿波动特征。从整体上看,西北中南部地区过去千年来呈暖湿冷干的气候状况。干旱重建序列成功的反映了过去500年来历史文献中记录的西北地区的几次严重的持续的干旱事件。另外,从干旱事件发生的频率以及持续时间上看,1920-30年代的西北地区干旱事件在过去千年中也许并不是最严重的,公元840-880和1100-1127年间的干旱事件情况似乎更为严重。这些严重的干旱事件对人类生活和社会结构造成了巨大的影响。
4、多窗谱分析和小波分析表明祁连山中部地区在过去的千年中存在准2-3年的短周期,以及30-50年,70-120年的长周期,整个序列都存在的短周期,可能与亚洲季风系统存在一定的关联;而主要位于序列两端的长尺度周期可能与太阳活动有关。同时收集了来自季风区、西风区的气候代用指标进行了对比研究,探讨分析气候变化的可能的驱动机制,结果显示:在过去的千年,影响祁连山中部地区的气候系统是不断变化的,情况较为复杂。整体上看,在公元1350年之前,该区域树木生长受东亚夏季风的影响更为显著,而在1550之后,西风的作用加强,祁连山中部树轮序列受西风以及东亚夏季风的共同影响,特别是在最近的100年中,西风的作用似乎更为强烈。
不同区域的树轮序列与全球4-6月的海表温均值之间的相关分析结果也显示在过去的120年中,亚洲中部干旱区的天山样点受西风的持续控制,华山样点、贺兰山样点受东亚季风的影响,都兰、治多样点主要受印度季风的影响。而祁连山的情况最为特殊,中西部地区在过去的120年中可能更多的受印度季风的影响,而东部与东亚夏季风联系更为紧密。
The Qilian Mountain is located in the interior of Eurasia and is dominated by semiarid climate. As an important geographical and climatic boundary in China, this area is particularly sensitive to global change. Due to the far distance from the ocean, the climate is comparatively arid, especially in the area with low elevation, which is mostly occupied by desert, grassland and Gobi. The forests are also surrounded by the arid desert, semi-desert, meadow and salina in the Qilian Mountain where the tree's growth is very sensitive to the climate change.
With the regional climate changes and the enhanced human activities, the ecological environment is seriously deteriorated in this region over the past years. The forests and grasslands are continuously degrading. The glaciers are retreating and the snow line is rising. The water resource is more and more hard up. The habitant activities and economy development are also affected profoundly. To examine the reasons and mechanism of the ecological environment changes in the Qilian Mountain, the history of environment change in this region should be studied firstly. It is not only an important scientific issue, but also urgent realistic problem to establish the strategy of the regional sustainable development.
Because of the accurate dating, continuous record, high resolution (annual), accurate measuring of the ring width, easy sampling and duplicating, the tree ring data is used widely as an important archive in paleoclimate reconstruction. In the 1970s and 1990s, the discovery of thousand year long-lived trees and a number of pioneer studies demonstrated that the Qilian Mountain was a great potential area for the tree-ring research of timescale from centuries to millennia. The main conclusions are followed:
1. Four tree-ring series from the east part (YKS, Huangtai, Wuwei), middle part (HYG and GJG, Sunan, Zhangye) and west part (SMZ, Qifeng, Jiuquan) of Qilian Mountain were employed to analyze the moisture variability. HYG, the oldest series from the middle part of Qilian Mountain among the four tree-ring series, was used to investigate the climate change in millennium time scale, and the other tree-ring series were employed to compare with each other.
All the cores in four tree-ring sample sites showed a high sensitivity as well as a well consistency among tree-ring cores. Therefore, all the cores could be used for cross-dating very well, which might reflect the influence of the same climate factor. The average correlation coefficient among cores is about 0.6. The highest correlation coefficient occurred in SMZ from the west part of Qialian Mountain(0.84), and the lowest was 0.36 from YKS in the east part of Qilian Mountain. Most of the coefficients were around 0.6 or higher. The growth of tree-rings from the west part is more sensitive than that from the east part, the main cause of which may be the water deficiency resulting from the decreasing of moisture gradually from east to west in the northwestern China.
Following the criterion for developing the tree-ring chronology, we constructed the tree-ring chronology for each sample site and then identified the reliable chronology in accordance with expressed population signal (EPS) >0.85. The statistical characteristics of each chronology presented that the sensitivity of eastern chronology was lowest and the sensitivity of western chronology was highest. The result of comparison among the main statistics in common intervals also showed the similar feature. The results of correlation analysis between tree-ring chronology and climate data in the meteorological station nearby indicated that the tree-ring growth correlated with both temperature and precipitation. However, the soil moisture variability in warm season had the greatest influence on the tree-ring growth. The altitude difference between sampling site and the meteorological station may increase the correlation coefficient.
2. Using the global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) data set, the seasonal and annual PDSI mean values of 56 grid points covering 1953-2003 over northwestern China were analyzed by rotated experience orthogonal function (REOF) to evaluate the characteristics of moisture variability in the northwestern China. The results showed that the seasonal and annual mean displayed similar anomaly regions. Furthermore there were five main anomaly regions on the northwestern China based on the annual PDSI mean, which are the northern and southern parts of Xinjiang, northern part of plateau, western part of Inner Mongolia and eastern part of northwestern China. The opposite changes of dry-wet conditions were discovered after comparing the curves of feature point series and binomial fit between the eastern and western parts of northwestern China: In the western part of northwestern China influenced by westerly, a trend of wetting gradually occurred since 1980. On the contrary, a trend of drying gradually occurred in the eastern part of northwestern China mainly influenced by Asia monsoon, and especially in summer and autumn, there was a notable trend of drying over the southeastern part of northwestern China. The northwestern China is obviously affected by westerly, Asia monsoon and Tibetan Plateau. There are differences among the responses of dry-wet condition to the global warming in different regions.
The comparison of the four tree-ring chronologies and other tree-rings series from the central Asian area, Asian monsoon area and the transitional zone, was then employed to analyze the moisture change in the past 150 years. The results demonstrated that those tree-ring series from the Asian monsoon area and the transitional zone preserved more signals of summer Asian monsoon in the last 150 years. However, as the sub-systems of summer Asian monsoon, East Asian monsoon and Indian monsoon influence the tree-ring sites diversely in different periods. And the long-term variations of these tree-ring series were quite different from those in the central Asian area. Except for the series from Helan Mountain, those series from Asian monsoon area and the transitional zone all showed the dry-wet-dry long term trends of moisture change in the recent 50 years. Especially, a trend of drying was apparent since the late of 1980s, which may correlate with the weakening of Asian monsoon recently. Furthermore, the trend of moisture change recorded in all series from each area was similar to the prior results from REOF analysis. The comparison of different tree-rings series captured two severe drought events successfully and suggested that the extending area and influences of the two severe drought were larger than the results documented by history writings.
3. A millennium-long tree-ring-width chronology from the middle Qilian Mountains in northwestern China had been used to reconstruct March-September drought there since 775 AD. A rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of 56 PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) grid points was employed to calibrate the tree-ring chronology. Our reconstruction indicated that the change of dry and wet varied frequently in the south-middle part of northwestern China (SMNC) during the past millennium. The extreme drought and wet events were common. However, the severe drought events occurred in the whole period while severe wet events mainly occurred at the beginning and the end of the reconstruction series. The fluctuation of drought and wet presented the great difference in different periods. The reconstruction showed large amplitudes and low-frequency fluctuations in warm conditions but small amplitudes and high-frequency fluctuations in cold conditiongs. In general, the SMNC showed a warm-wet and cold-dry climate sequence in the past thousand years. Furthermore, the drought reconstruction not only revealed the long-term pattern of drought variability, but also successfully captured several extreme drought events recorded in local historical documents for the past 500 years. According to the frequency and duration of drought, the 1920-30s extreme drought event was not the only one for the past millennium. Two more drought events occurred in the periods of 840-880 AD and 1100-1127 AD may equal or severer than it. The regional drought events were in well agreement with the decline of population and the change of ancient dynasty during the past millennium in China.
4. Both multi-taper spectral analysis and wavelet analysis indicated periods of drought in the reconstruction that are consistent with those associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon and perhaps even solar activity. Therefore, the Asian Summer Monsoon and solar activity were possibly the driving mechanism of the climate change in the Qilian Mountain. Compared with the proxies associated with Asian monsoon and westerlies in the past millennium, the tree-ring chronology demonstrated that the Asian monsoon had a strong influence before 1350 AD. After 1550 AD, however, a combined influence of both Asian monsoon and westerlies was apparent. Especially, the influence of westerlies on the tree-ring growth seem more obvious during the past 100 years.
The correlation analysis of tree-ring series mentioned above and the global sea surface temperature in June was used to evaluate the possible forcing mechanism of climate further. The results demonstrated that, in the past 150 years, sampling site in the Tianshan Mountain was controlled by westerly while the sampling sites in Hua Mountain and Helan Mountain were influenced by East Asian monsoon. The sampling sites in Dulan and Zhiduo were mainly affected by Indian monsoon. Nevertheless, the forcing mechanism of climate in Qilian Mountain was still complex. The middle-west part of Qilian Mountain was mainly influenced by Indian summer monsoon in the past 120 years while the east part of Qilian Mountain seems correlated closely with East Asian summer monsoon.
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