内蒙古自治区干旱灾害时空分布规律及预测研究
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摘要
干旱己经成为影响面最广,持续时间长、造成经济损失最大的自然灾害,对农牧业生产、社会经济和人民生活均会造成严重影响,内蒙古地区属干旱半干旱地区,年降水量少,且时空分布很不均匀,水资源短缺现象日趋严重,干旱是本地区最主要的自然灾害。已严重影响和制约着本地区社会与经济的可持续发展。评价区域干旱程度、干旱的时空分布状况,进行旱灾规律和预报研究,为抗旱减灾工作提供相关的信息和技术支持,以提高抗旱工作主动性和决策的科学性,对于应对干旱缺水问题是十分必要的。
本文根据内蒙古抗旱工作的需要,以分析研究内蒙古干旱的基本特征、干旱的成因、干旱灾害的时空分布规律及旱灾预测等为主要内容:一、归纳总结了自治区干旱的基本特征及其成因:干旱普遍存在,旱灾频繁,旱情严重,随着年代的延长干旱周期缩短、旱象加重,干旱灾害呈连续性,地域差异明显,西部高于东部、牧区高于农区,影响范围广,致灾因子类型多,孕灾环境复杂。异常的大气环流是造成干旱的主要条件,气候的变暖影响着环境要素,使干旱的周期缩短,社会因素影响并改变了干旱化进程,加剧了干旱的发展。二、调查分析了内蒙古自治区101个旗县1990—2007年间因旱造成的农业、牧业、城镇居民生活及工业方面的损害程度及降水资料,运用统计计算、频率分析等方法,根据旱灾等级划分标准,确定了内蒙古自治区3个级别的旱灾等级(严重旱灾、中度旱灾、轻度旱灾)发生频率和分布区划。按照干旱季节的划分,确定了内蒙古自治区3种易旱季节(春旱、春夏旱、春夏秋旱)旱灾易发区的分布规律,及连季旱灾发生频率。并运用同期降水资料对结果进行检验,最终确定了自治区干旱灾害的时空分布特征。通过GIS软件Mapinfo对易旱季节及旱灾等级分布图进行区划。三、根据1990-2007年内蒙古自治区干旱灾害发生的时间以及灾情统计数据,采用灰色灾变理论,建立旱灾灰色灾变预测GM(1,1)模型,对自治区未来15年旱灾进行了分析预测,预测将在2010年、2011年、2014年、2016年、2018年、2019年全区分别有四个及四个以上盟市发生干旱,尤其在2011,2019年份将出现特大旱灾。
通过对自治区干旱的基本特征、干旱的成因、干旱灾害的时空分布规律及旱灾预测的研究,有效地掌握了自治区干旱的发生规律,为有效规划配置水资源、科学合理实施工程措施、人力物力调度,将干旱灾害减少到最低程度奠定基础。同时为下一步旱灾预警预报,旱情监测预警系统、抗旱指挥调度系统的建立提供相关的信息和技术支持。
Drought has become the most widespread and the greatest economic losses natural disaster; it has a serious impact on agricultural production. Inner Mongolia belongs to arid and semi-arid regions, low annual precipitation, and the spatial and temporal distribution is very uneven, water shortage is much serious more and more, drought is the major natural disaster in this region, it has been seriously affected and restricted the social and economic sustainable development. Pay attention to the evaluation of regional drought, the spatial and temporal distribution of drought conditions, forecast for anti-drought, which provides relevant information and technical support, improving initiative and scientific in anti-drought, it is quite necessary to deal with the drought and water shortage problem.
According to the needs of anti-drought, in order to analyze the basic characteristics, causes of drought, spatial-temporal distribution and prediction of drought in Inner Mongolia. Firstly, the basic characteristics and causes of drought in this region are summarized: drought is widespread, frequent and severe. With the time goes, the period of draught quite shortened, continuing, and the geographical differences are distinct, western is much higher than eastern, pastoral areas are severer than agricultural areas, disaster environment is complex. Atmospheric circulation is the main cause of drought; climate warming is one of factors of environmental effect, so that the period of drought shortened, social factors influence the process of drought, exacerbating drought development. The analysis of content is objective, rational, and comprehensive;Secondly, This paper investigated and analyzed the extent of damage and precipitation data in agriculture, animal husbandry, urban household and industrial aspects about 101 counties in Inner Mongolia between 1990 to 2007, using statistical calculation, the frequency analysis method, the drought (drought-prone season, drought level) temporal and spatial distribution and for distribution division was identified initially in Inner Mongolia, and three kinds of drought-prone season was determined including drought, spring and summer drought, spring and autumn drought, the frequency and distribution divisions of the three-level divisions drought levels (severe drought, moderate drought, mild drought). And the spatial and temporal distribution of drought is determined using the results rainfall data over the same period, the season of drought-prone and distribution is divided by the Mapinfo of GIS software. Thirdly, according to the time of drought occurred and disaster statistics of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from1990-2007, gray catastrophe theory is adopted, establishing the drought gray prediction model GM (1,1), analyzing the drought of autonomous regions in the next 15 years, forecasting more than four and four Union City in 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2019 respectively, which will happen the drought, particularly heavy drought will be appeared in 2011,2019.
Through the basic characteristics of drought, drought causes, spatial-temporal distribution, and drought prediction, the drought occurrence is mastered, and the allocation of water resources is planed effectively, the engineering measures are implemented scientifically, human resources are scheduled rationally, the disaster of drought will be minimized lowest. At the same time, it will warn and forecast early for next drought, monitoring and warning systems, anti-drought command and control system are established to provide relevant information and technical support.
本文根据内蒙古抗旱工作的需要,以分析研究内蒙古干旱的基本特征、干旱的成因、干旱灾害的时空分布规律及旱灾预测等为主要内容:一、归纳总结了自治区干旱的基本特征及其成因:干旱普遍存在,旱灾频繁,旱情严重,随着年代的延长干旱周期缩短、旱象加重,干旱灾害呈连续性,地域差异明显,西部高于东部、牧区高于农区,影响范围广,致灾因子类型多,孕灾环境复杂。异常的大气环流是造成干旱的主要条件,气候的变暖影响着环境要素,使干旱的周期缩短,社会因素影响并改变了干旱化进程,加剧了干旱的发展。二、调查分析了内蒙古自治区101个旗县1990—2007年间因旱造成的农业、牧业、城镇居民生活及工业方面的损害程度及降水资料,运用统计计算、频率分析等方法,根据旱灾等级划分标准,确定了内蒙古自治区3个级别的旱灾等级(严重旱灾、中度旱灾、轻度旱灾)发生频率和分布区划。按照干旱季节的划分,确定了内蒙古自治区3种易旱季节(春旱、春夏旱、春夏秋旱)旱灾易发区的分布规律,及连季旱灾发生频率。并运用同期降水资料对结果进行检验,最终确定了自治区干旱灾害的时空分布特征。通过GIS软件Mapinfo对易旱季节及旱灾等级分布图进行区划。三、根据1990-2007年内蒙古自治区干旱灾害发生的时间以及灾情统计数据,采用灰色灾变理论,建立旱灾灰色灾变预测GM(1,1)模型,对自治区未来15年旱灾进行了分析预测,预测将在2010年、2011年、2014年、2016年、2018年、2019年全区分别有四个及四个以上盟市发生干旱,尤其在2011,2019年份将出现特大旱灾。
通过对自治区干旱的基本特征、干旱的成因、干旱灾害的时空分布规律及旱灾预测的研究,有效地掌握了自治区干旱的发生规律,为有效规划配置水资源、科学合理实施工程措施、人力物力调度,将干旱灾害减少到最低程度奠定基础。同时为下一步旱灾预警预报,旱情监测预警系统、抗旱指挥调度系统的建立提供相关的信息和技术支持。
Drought has become the most widespread and the greatest economic losses natural disaster; it has a serious impact on agricultural production. Inner Mongolia belongs to arid and semi-arid regions, low annual precipitation, and the spatial and temporal distribution is very uneven, water shortage is much serious more and more, drought is the major natural disaster in this region, it has been seriously affected and restricted the social and economic sustainable development. Pay attention to the evaluation of regional drought, the spatial and temporal distribution of drought conditions, forecast for anti-drought, which provides relevant information and technical support, improving initiative and scientific in anti-drought, it is quite necessary to deal with the drought and water shortage problem.
According to the needs of anti-drought, in order to analyze the basic characteristics, causes of drought, spatial-temporal distribution and prediction of drought in Inner Mongolia. Firstly, the basic characteristics and causes of drought in this region are summarized: drought is widespread, frequent and severe. With the time goes, the period of draught quite shortened, continuing, and the geographical differences are distinct, western is much higher than eastern, pastoral areas are severer than agricultural areas, disaster environment is complex. Atmospheric circulation is the main cause of drought; climate warming is one of factors of environmental effect, so that the period of drought shortened, social factors influence the process of drought, exacerbating drought development. The analysis of content is objective, rational, and comprehensive;Secondly, This paper investigated and analyzed the extent of damage and precipitation data in agriculture, animal husbandry, urban household and industrial aspects about 101 counties in Inner Mongolia between 1990 to 2007, using statistical calculation, the frequency analysis method, the drought (drought-prone season, drought level) temporal and spatial distribution and for distribution division was identified initially in Inner Mongolia, and three kinds of drought-prone season was determined including drought, spring and summer drought, spring and autumn drought, the frequency and distribution divisions of the three-level divisions drought levels (severe drought, moderate drought, mild drought). And the spatial and temporal distribution of drought is determined using the results rainfall data over the same period, the season of drought-prone and distribution is divided by the Mapinfo of GIS software. Thirdly, according to the time of drought occurred and disaster statistics of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from1990-2007, gray catastrophe theory is adopted, establishing the drought gray prediction model GM (1,1), analyzing the drought of autonomous regions in the next 15 years, forecasting more than four and four Union City in 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2019 respectively, which will happen the drought, particularly heavy drought will be appeared in 2011,2019.
Through the basic characteristics of drought, drought causes, spatial-temporal distribution, and drought prediction, the drought occurrence is mastered, and the allocation of water resources is planed effectively, the engineering measures are implemented scientifically, human resources are scheduled rationally, the disaster of drought will be minimized lowest. At the same time, it will warn and forecast early for next drought, monitoring and warning systems, anti-drought command and control system are established to provide relevant information and technical support.
引文
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