中国政府财政统计体系改革再研究
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摘要
进入20世纪90年代以来,世界上爆发了严重的墨西哥金融危机和亚洲金融危机,当这两次危机人们还记忆犹新时,2007年美国爆发了次贷危机,两年后引发为全球经济危机,然而世界经济还未从这次危机中走出来,欧洲债务危机又开始上演,当前仍在演绎。然而,纵观几次危机,不管是金融危机、经济危机还是当前正在演绎的欧洲债务危机都表明,金融风险加剧直至危机爆发往往与政府债务危机和财政支付危机有着直接或间接的关系。政府巨额财政赤字既可能是金融危机发生的重要原因,也可能会成为其加深、蔓延的重要推动器。从欧洲债务危机中,看到了在希腊等欧洲多国有着这样的演绎,同时实践表明,危机是否爆发、影响有多大与国家财政实力有关。财政是政府应对危机时的重要手段,也是多种手段结合的综合处置方案落到实处的重要保障,它还用于弥补危机带来的损失。
为了规范世界各国宏观经济统计,便于各国交流与对比,在联合国、国际货币基金组织(IMF)、世界银行等国际组织主导下,经过几十年的发展与完善,制定了一系列国际统计规范,其中最主要的是经过多次修订的《国民经济核算体系》(SNA)、《国际收支手册》(BOP)、《货币与金融统计手册》(MFS)、《政府财政统计手册》(GFS)。改革开放以来,中国统计学界对建立我国宏观经济统计体系进行了广泛而深入的研究,并且已经建立起了与社会主义市场经济体制相适应的国民经济核算体系。但是,在整个宏观经济统计体系中,对中国政府财政统计的研究还是相对薄弱。因此,无论从理论上还是实践上来说,研究建设改革完善中国政府财政统计体系都具有十分重要的意义。
本文是在遵循国际货币基金组织GFS(2001)框架下,在借鉴现有中国政府财政统计研究成果的基础上,结合国情对中国政府财政统计体系改革所进行的再研究,为构建中国政府财政统计新体系,全面提高财政统计信息质量提供支持。本文研究的出发点是推动中国的政府财政统计更加符合市场经济体制的要求,更加符合国际统计规范,为健康财政统计分析评价提供真实客观的数据,真正有利于及早发现我国财政运行的脆弱性根源,为政府制定政策提供科学依据,从而实现中国政府财政健康发展。
论文共有八章,各章内容安排如下：
第一章绪论。一是结合近年来所发生的几次世界性经济危机提出研究的问题,指出金融危机与财政危机之间会相互演绎；二是提出研究的理论意义和实践意义；三是对国内外政府财政统计研究现状进行评述,梳理总结我国政府财政统计研究的基本情况,在已有政府财政统计研究成果基础上,明确本文研究的重点与需要做的工作；四是介绍论文的结构和主要内容；五是归纳出论文的主要创新和不足。
第二章政府财政统计的理论基础与政府财政统计的发展。本章从财政理论的发展和财政统计国际规范的修订过程两个方面,着手对政府财政统计的产生和发展过程进行梳理和总结。着重介绍了2001版《政府财政统计手册》的主要特点、统计范围以及与1986年版GFS的对比分析,并对比分析了政府财政统计与其他三大宏观统计体系的关系。
第三章中国政府财政统计体系现状及改革方向。首先对中国政府财政统计体系总体情况进行介绍,指出核算涵盖的范围是职能政府、核算基础是财政预决算、核心内容是财政资金的流动,以及指标体系仍然是按照以往国际上通行的财政赤字核心指标等内容；其次,在梳理政府财政统计体系(GFS)的实施情况后,重点分析了澳大利亚、加拿大政府财政统计开展情况和成功做法,并提出了可供我国推进政府财政统计改革的借鉴意义；最后指出中国政府财政统计与GFS(2001)的差距,主要是核算范围不够稳定、经常变动、核算基础是以现金收付实现制没有按照权责发生制、收支分类体系还是遵循GFS(1986)的政府收支分类体系、财政分析指标体系还是用财政赤字指标等,并探讨如何进行改革等问题。
第四章中国政府财政统计分类体系研究。本章是本文研究的一个重点,首先介绍了中国政府收支分类的基本框架和基本原则；其次,通过对国际货币基金组织的政府财政统计收支分类GFS(2001)和中国政府收支分类进行比较,提出了两个分类进行转换的原则,据此分别设计了政府收入、政府支出功能分类、政府支出经济分类的转换编制方法,对今后推进中国政府收支分类改革提供了科学依据。
第五章中国财政统计体系统计范围拓展——国有资本财政和社会保障资金统计卫星账户研究。本章是本文研究的又一个重点,首先介绍了政府财政统计核算范围,包括GFS(2001)的核算范围以及中国政府财政统计的核算范围,指出中国现有财政统计核算范围的不科学性。其次,对政府财政统计范围进行了拓展,构建了中国国有资本财政统计卫星账户核算体系。根据我国国情,国有企业改革问题仍然处于非常重要的地位,且国有资本对政府财政的健康问题至关重要,不应该只是将执行政府政策的公共公司纳入核算范围,其他国有资本也应该将其经营情况纳入核算范围,并设计了与GFS进行有效衔接模式；最后,遵照GFS(2001)核算范围,论证了将中国社会保障资金全面纳入核算范围的必要性,构建了中国社会保障资金统计卫星账户核算体系,设计了将社会保障全面纳入核算范围情况下社会保障与政府财政统计的衔接模式。
第六章中国政府财政统计核算方式改革研究。本章主要包括中国政府财政统计核算对象改革和中国政府财政统计核算准则改革两部分。核算对象部分主要分析了GFS(2001)总体框架中的政府运营表、其他经济流量表、资产负债表和现金来源与使用表四张表,并且论证了通过这四张表可以评估政府活动对经济的影响和财政政策的可持续性,提出了核算对象改革的指导性意见。核算准则部分指出中国政府财政统计核算准则的改革是基于GFS(2001)框架下进行的,首先回顾核算准则建设,分析了权责发生制的优点,收付实现制的缺点,并指出财政统计中推行权责发生制的必要性,提出了推进改革的指导性方案；其次研究了中国政府财政行为变动的统计记录时间以及记录基础。
第七章政府财政统计分析评价指标体系研究。这是对中国政府财政统计数据实际应用的研究。主要是依据健康财政的内涵和政府财政统计信息,设计了健康财政分析评价指标体系,从财政风险、财政收入可持续性、财政支出绩效三个方面,将三大类指标有机结合起来评价分析中国政府财政健康状况,为评价政府财政政策提供科学方法,有利于实现政府财政健康发展。
第八章研究结论与展望。一方面,对本文的研究重点和结果做一个全面的总结和回顾并指出研究中的不足；另一方面,明确需要进一步研究的问题。
本文研究在国际货币基金组织GFS(2001)框架下,对中国政府财政统计体系改革再研究作了多方面的探索,其创新之处主要体现在：
(1)拓展中国政府财政统计的内容,构建了国有资本财政统计卫星账户和社会保障资金统计卫星账户核算体系。一方面,结合国情,以及中国国有资本的特点,提出应将国有资本经营情况全面纳入政府财政核算体系,而不是完全遵照GFS(2001)所指的公共公司,构建了中国国有资本财政统计卫星账户核算体系,并设计了国有资本财政与政府财政统计GFS的衔接方式；另一方面,指出将中国仍未全面纳入政府财政统计GFS核算范围的社会保障资金全面纳入核算范围,构建了中国社会保障资金统计卫星账户核算体系,并设计了社会保障资金与政府财政统计GFS的衔接模式。
(2)系统研究了中国政府财政收支分类体系与国际货币基金组织的政府财政收支分类体系,根据收支分类科目的差异,按照政府收入、政府支出功能分类、政府支出经济分类对两者进行了转换研究。为中国政府财政统计与国际规范相衔接提出了改革方案,指出当前中国政府收支分类体系是不科学的,按现行收入分类夸大了政府收入,将本没有导致收入增加的项目也归为收入,其实是政府所拥有的资产之间相互转换,同样,在支出方面也有这样的情况,有的支出交叉重叠,这样不能够真实的反映出政府净财富,而净财富才是政府真正可用于抵抗金融危机和财政危机所产生的支出资金。
(3)研究并提出了中国政府健康财政统计评价分析指标体系。本研究与其他研究的不同之处在于,以往研究要么就评价体系而展开单独研究,要么就只研究政府财政统计核算体系,而本文在财政统计核算体系的基础上,依据统计信息构建了健康财政评价指标体系,将核算与评价很好地结合起来,并进一步指出,完整的财政统计体系应该是从统计原始数据到数据加工,再到统计数据深加工是一体的,每一步都会影响财政运行脆弱性根源的及时发现,以至于会影响提出科学合理的财政政策。
(4)基于国际货币基金组织GFS(2001)的要求,对中国政府财政统计流量与存量帐户以及统计核算准则的改革进行了具体研究,并指出了改革指导方案。论证了通过政府运营表、其他经济流量表、资产负债表和现金来源与使用表评估政府活动对经济的影响和财政政策的可持续性。论证了财政统计中推行权责发生制的必要性,提出了推进改革的指导性方案,研究了中国政府财政行为变动的记录时间以及记录基础。
本文对政府财政统计核算体系的研究也还有一些不足,对中国政府财政统计体系的改革有些还只是提出一些设想,要真正建立完善的政府财政统计体系,还需要作进一步研究。对健康财政的评价本可以用统计方法作一些实证方面的研究,但由于所需的某些数据较难获得,只是指出了分析方向。本文主要是基于政府财政统计核算体系技术方面的分析,对影响原始数据质量方面研究较少。这些都是今后需要不断加强研究的地方。
Since the1990s, the world broke out a serious financial crisis in Mexico and in Asian. When two crisis were still remembered, the outbreak of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis happened in2007. After two years it caused the global economic crisis. However, the world economy had not yet come out from this crisis, the European debt crisis began to be staged and now is ongoing. Throughout the crises, whether it was a financial crisis, economic crisis or the current interpretation of the European debt crisis, it showed that the financial risks until the crisis often had a direct or indirect relationship with the government debt crisis and financial payments crisis. The huge government budget deficit may conducted diffused and induced the financial crisis, the financial crisis might also be passing spread, induced the Government's fiscal crisis and the budget crisis would deepen the financial crisis further. From the European debt crisis, we see the practice in Greece and other European multi-countries. Then the fact shows that whether the crisis break out and how it impacts on others are relative to the national financial strength. Finance is the important means of government response to the crisis and the safeguards to combine comprehensive disposal program fall for the real,as well as making up the loss caused by the crisis.
In order to regulate the world's macroeconomic statistics to facilitate the exchange and comparison of countries. After decades of development and improvement, the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and other international organizations develop a series of international statistics specification, of which the most important is the National Accounting System (SNA) after multiple revisions and the Balance of Payments Statistics manual (BOP), the Monetary and Financial Statistics manual (MFS) and Government finance Statistics manual(GFS). Since Chinese reform and opening up, statistics academia study the macroeconomic statistical systems in China and has established a national economic accounting system compatible with the social market economic system. However, the government finance statistics is still relatively weak in the overall macroeconomic statistical system. Therefore, studying Chinese government finance statistics are meaningful in the practical and theoretical side.
This study reforms the existing system of government finance statistics following the IMF GFS (2001) framework and combines with national conditions in China, builds the GFS system, thereby improving the overall quality of fiscal statistics. The starting point of this study is that the GFS in China is more in line with the requirement of the market economy system and the international norms. We want to provide real and effective data for healthy financial statistical analysis which is good for finding the weak roots of the GFS in China and provide a scientific basis for policy formulation in order to achieve the healthy development of the Chinese government finance.
Paper consists of eight chapters, each chapter is organized as follows:
The chapter Ⅰ introduction. First part put the question with the combination of the recent crises and pointed out that there was a mutal interpretation between the financial crisis and the fiscal crisis; Second part showed the study's theoretical and practical significance; Third was about the research status and commentary and summarized the basic situation of the statistical study in existing Government Finance Statistics.On the basis of the results, making the clear focus of this study needed to be done; Fourth part introduced the structure and content of the paper; Fifth summarized the main innovation and insufficient part of the work.
The chapter Ⅱ was about the theoretical basis and development of the government finance statistics. From two aspects of the revision process of the development of financial theory and international financial statistics, this chapter began to collate and summarize the emergence and development of government finance statistics.The paper's forcus was on the characteristics and statistics range of the Government Finance Statistics Manual2001and explained the relationship between the government finance statistics with the other three major macroeconomic statistical systems.
Chapter III showed Chinese Government Finance Statistics system status and direction of reform. First part described the overall situation of the Chinese Government Finance Statistics system, including the scope of the accounting covered, the accounting basis, the core content is the flowing of financial funds, as well as grouping and index system content; Second, after the carding of the implementation of the GFS, we analyzed Government Finance Statistics in Australia and Canada and provided its significance for China to promote the reform of GFS; Last we pointed the gap between Chinese Government Finance Statistics and GFS (2001). The major accounting scope was various. The basis of accounting on a cash to achieve system did not follow the accrual. The revenue and expenditure classification system was following GFS(1986) classification system. The financial analysis index system still used the budget deficit indicators. We explored how to reform.
Chapter IV was about the research of GFS classification system in China. This chapter is a focus of this paper. Firstly we described the basic framework and the principle of the classification of government revenue in China; Secondly according to the IMF's Government Finance Statistics Balance of Payments Classification GFS(2001) and the Chinese government revenue classification, we supported the principle of two classifications conversion, under which we designed government revenue, and functional classification of government spending, government spending and economic conversion preparation method provides a scientific basis for the future reform of the classification of government revenue.
Chapter V was about the GFS system statistics expansion of the scope-to build financial and social security funds of state-owned capital statistics Satellite Account. This chapter was another focus in this paper. We introduced the scope of government finance statistics accounting, including accounting accounting scope of GFS (2001) and the Chinese Government Finance Statistics and pointed out that the existing financial statistics and accounting range unscientific; Second, we expanded the scope of government finance statistics to build a Chinese state-owned capital finance Statistics satellite account accounting system. According to China's national conditions, the reform of state-owned enterprises are still in a very important position and the state-owned capital is critical to the health problems of government finances, not just put a public company into the accounting and other state-owned capital should put its business into the accounting and make effective convergence; Finally, in accordance with the accounting scope of GFS (2001), we demonstrated that social security comprehensive included in the accounting of the scope of the need to build statistical satellite Account accounting system of China's social security funds, and designed to be fully integrated into the social security accounting scope of social security and government finance statistics convergence mode.
Chapter VI described the Chinese Government Finance Statistics and method of accounting reform. This chapter was the focus of the study, including the two parts of the Chinese Government Finance Statistics the accounting object reform and the Chinese Government Finance Statistics Accounting Standards reform. The accounting objects part of the main analyzed GFS (2001) in the overall framework of government operations table, other economic flow statement, balance sheet and cash sources and uses table four tables, and argued that government activities could be assessed through the four tables on the economy the impact and sustainability of fiscal policy, the guidance of the reform of the accounting object. The accounting guidelines section pointed the Chinese Government Finance Statistics Accounting Standards was based on the framework of reform of GFS(2001).Rreviewing the construction of accounting guidelines, and analysis of the advantages of accrual and cash basis the shortcomings of the system, we pointed out that the need for the implementation of accrual reform guidance; Secondly, the record of the basis of the Chinese government fiscal behavior changed statistical record time as well as the Chinese system of government finance statistics.
Chapter VII was about government finance statistics analysis function. It based on the health of the financial and government finance statistics to prepare healthy financial analysis index system. From financial crisis, sustainability of fiscal revenue, fiscal expenditure performance, we evaluated and analysized the financial health of the Chinese government to provide a scientific method for the evaluation of fiscal policy, which is conductive to the government's fiscal health and sustainable development.
Chapter VIII was of summary and outlook. On the one hand, we summarized and reviewed the focus of this study and the results and pointed out the deficiencies in the study; On the other hand, we pointed out the further research was needed.
With the IMF GFS (2001) framework,we made many innovations for further reform of the system of government finance statistics:
1. we want to expand the contents of the Chinese Government Finance Statistics. On the one hand, we combined with China's national conditions, as well as the characteristics of the state capital and considered the state-owned capital should be fully integrated into the Government's financial accounting system, rather than completely fellow GFS (2001) referred to a public company, and designed a convergence between state-owned capital Finance and Government Finance Statistics; On the other hand, we proposed China had not yet integrated the accounting of the scope of government finance statistics social security funds fully into the accounting. And we built statistical Satellite Account accounting system of China's social security funds, as well as designed convergence model of social security funds and government finance statistics.
2. We studied fiscal revenue and expenditure classification system of the Chinese government and the International Monetary Fund Organization government fiscal revenue and expenditure classification system, according to the difference in the balance of payments classification subjects. According to government revenue, the function of government spending, government spending economic,we made conversion and phased reform program for China's government finance statistics and international norms. Pointing out that the current Chinese government revenue and expenditure classification system was unscientific and according to the current classification of income overstated government revenues, this did not lead to increased income items classified as income, in fact, was the conversion between the assets owned by the government, the same on the expenditure side, there were such cases, some spending overlapping, this could not be true reflection of the government's net wealth, the net wealth was the government really could be used to resist spending generated by the financial crisis and the financial crisis.
3. We evaluated the Chinese Government Finance Statistics analysis functions. Different from other studies which made research or evaluation system by separate studies, or just studied the accounting system of government finance statistics, our study was built on the basis of statistical accounting system.We made a healthy financial evaluation index system and combined the two together. Then we further pointed out that the integrity of the statistical system should be one from the statistics of the original data to the data processing. Every step would affect the timely discovery of the root causes of vulnerability of the financial operation and affected the scientific and rational fiscal policy.
4. Our research was based on the IMF GFS (2001) requirements and studied the flow and stock accounts, as well as statistical accounting standards reform of China's Government Finance Statistics. Our study demonstrated that the sustainability of government activities impacted on the economy and fiscal policy by the government operations table, other economic flow statement, balance sheet and cash sources and use table. We recorded the need for accrual basis and proposed reform of the instructional program as well as record time that changed in government fiscal behavior of the GFS system.
There are still some shortcomings in our study of integration of financial statistics. The ideas about the GFS system reform are just tentative plan. This requires further study to establish a perfect system of government finance statistics. Evaluation of the financial health should have used statistical methods to make some empirical research, while because of some of the data is difficult to obtain, we just point out the direction of the analysis. This study is based on the analysis of the technical aspects of government finance statistics accounting system and describes little the quality of the raw data. These need to continue to strengthen in future.
为了规范世界各国宏观经济统计,便于各国交流与对比,在联合国、国际货币基金组织(IMF)、世界银行等国际组织主导下,经过几十年的发展与完善,制定了一系列国际统计规范,其中最主要的是经过多次修订的《国民经济核算体系》(SNA)、《国际收支手册》(BOP)、《货币与金融统计手册》(MFS)、《政府财政统计手册》(GFS)。改革开放以来,中国统计学界对建立我国宏观经济统计体系进行了广泛而深入的研究,并且已经建立起了与社会主义市场经济体制相适应的国民经济核算体系。但是,在整个宏观经济统计体系中,对中国政府财政统计的研究还是相对薄弱。因此,无论从理论上还是实践上来说,研究建设改革完善中国政府财政统计体系都具有十分重要的意义。
本文是在遵循国际货币基金组织GFS(2001)框架下,在借鉴现有中国政府财政统计研究成果的基础上,结合国情对中国政府财政统计体系改革所进行的再研究,为构建中国政府财政统计新体系,全面提高财政统计信息质量提供支持。本文研究的出发点是推动中国的政府财政统计更加符合市场经济体制的要求,更加符合国际统计规范,为健康财政统计分析评价提供真实客观的数据,真正有利于及早发现我国财政运行的脆弱性根源,为政府制定政策提供科学依据,从而实现中国政府财政健康发展。
论文共有八章,各章内容安排如下：
第一章绪论。一是结合近年来所发生的几次世界性经济危机提出研究的问题,指出金融危机与财政危机之间会相互演绎；二是提出研究的理论意义和实践意义；三是对国内外政府财政统计研究现状进行评述,梳理总结我国政府财政统计研究的基本情况,在已有政府财政统计研究成果基础上,明确本文研究的重点与需要做的工作；四是介绍论文的结构和主要内容；五是归纳出论文的主要创新和不足。
第二章政府财政统计的理论基础与政府财政统计的发展。本章从财政理论的发展和财政统计国际规范的修订过程两个方面,着手对政府财政统计的产生和发展过程进行梳理和总结。着重介绍了2001版《政府财政统计手册》的主要特点、统计范围以及与1986年版GFS的对比分析,并对比分析了政府财政统计与其他三大宏观统计体系的关系。
第三章中国政府财政统计体系现状及改革方向。首先对中国政府财政统计体系总体情况进行介绍,指出核算涵盖的范围是职能政府、核算基础是财政预决算、核心内容是财政资金的流动,以及指标体系仍然是按照以往国际上通行的财政赤字核心指标等内容；其次,在梳理政府财政统计体系(GFS)的实施情况后,重点分析了澳大利亚、加拿大政府财政统计开展情况和成功做法,并提出了可供我国推进政府财政统计改革的借鉴意义；最后指出中国政府财政统计与GFS(2001)的差距,主要是核算范围不够稳定、经常变动、核算基础是以现金收付实现制没有按照权责发生制、收支分类体系还是遵循GFS(1986)的政府收支分类体系、财政分析指标体系还是用财政赤字指标等,并探讨如何进行改革等问题。
第四章中国政府财政统计分类体系研究。本章是本文研究的一个重点,首先介绍了中国政府收支分类的基本框架和基本原则；其次,通过对国际货币基金组织的政府财政统计收支分类GFS(2001)和中国政府收支分类进行比较,提出了两个分类进行转换的原则,据此分别设计了政府收入、政府支出功能分类、政府支出经济分类的转换编制方法,对今后推进中国政府收支分类改革提供了科学依据。
第五章中国财政统计体系统计范围拓展——国有资本财政和社会保障资金统计卫星账户研究。本章是本文研究的又一个重点,首先介绍了政府财政统计核算范围,包括GFS(2001)的核算范围以及中国政府财政统计的核算范围,指出中国现有财政统计核算范围的不科学性。其次,对政府财政统计范围进行了拓展,构建了中国国有资本财政统计卫星账户核算体系。根据我国国情,国有企业改革问题仍然处于非常重要的地位,且国有资本对政府财政的健康问题至关重要,不应该只是将执行政府政策的公共公司纳入核算范围,其他国有资本也应该将其经营情况纳入核算范围,并设计了与GFS进行有效衔接模式；最后,遵照GFS(2001)核算范围,论证了将中国社会保障资金全面纳入核算范围的必要性,构建了中国社会保障资金统计卫星账户核算体系,设计了将社会保障全面纳入核算范围情况下社会保障与政府财政统计的衔接模式。
第六章中国政府财政统计核算方式改革研究。本章主要包括中国政府财政统计核算对象改革和中国政府财政统计核算准则改革两部分。核算对象部分主要分析了GFS(2001)总体框架中的政府运营表、其他经济流量表、资产负债表和现金来源与使用表四张表,并且论证了通过这四张表可以评估政府活动对经济的影响和财政政策的可持续性,提出了核算对象改革的指导性意见。核算准则部分指出中国政府财政统计核算准则的改革是基于GFS(2001)框架下进行的,首先回顾核算准则建设,分析了权责发生制的优点,收付实现制的缺点,并指出财政统计中推行权责发生制的必要性,提出了推进改革的指导性方案；其次研究了中国政府财政行为变动的统计记录时间以及记录基础。
第七章政府财政统计分析评价指标体系研究。这是对中国政府财政统计数据实际应用的研究。主要是依据健康财政的内涵和政府财政统计信息,设计了健康财政分析评价指标体系,从财政风险、财政收入可持续性、财政支出绩效三个方面,将三大类指标有机结合起来评价分析中国政府财政健康状况,为评价政府财政政策提供科学方法,有利于实现政府财政健康发展。
第八章研究结论与展望。一方面,对本文的研究重点和结果做一个全面的总结和回顾并指出研究中的不足；另一方面,明确需要进一步研究的问题。
本文研究在国际货币基金组织GFS(2001)框架下,对中国政府财政统计体系改革再研究作了多方面的探索,其创新之处主要体现在：
(1)拓展中国政府财政统计的内容,构建了国有资本财政统计卫星账户和社会保障资金统计卫星账户核算体系。一方面,结合国情,以及中国国有资本的特点,提出应将国有资本经营情况全面纳入政府财政核算体系,而不是完全遵照GFS(2001)所指的公共公司,构建了中国国有资本财政统计卫星账户核算体系,并设计了国有资本财政与政府财政统计GFS的衔接方式；另一方面,指出将中国仍未全面纳入政府财政统计GFS核算范围的社会保障资金全面纳入核算范围,构建了中国社会保障资金统计卫星账户核算体系,并设计了社会保障资金与政府财政统计GFS的衔接模式。
(2)系统研究了中国政府财政收支分类体系与国际货币基金组织的政府财政收支分类体系,根据收支分类科目的差异,按照政府收入、政府支出功能分类、政府支出经济分类对两者进行了转换研究。为中国政府财政统计与国际规范相衔接提出了改革方案,指出当前中国政府收支分类体系是不科学的,按现行收入分类夸大了政府收入,将本没有导致收入增加的项目也归为收入,其实是政府所拥有的资产之间相互转换,同样,在支出方面也有这样的情况,有的支出交叉重叠,这样不能够真实的反映出政府净财富,而净财富才是政府真正可用于抵抗金融危机和财政危机所产生的支出资金。
(3)研究并提出了中国政府健康财政统计评价分析指标体系。本研究与其他研究的不同之处在于,以往研究要么就评价体系而展开单独研究,要么就只研究政府财政统计核算体系,而本文在财政统计核算体系的基础上,依据统计信息构建了健康财政评价指标体系,将核算与评价很好地结合起来,并进一步指出,完整的财政统计体系应该是从统计原始数据到数据加工,再到统计数据深加工是一体的,每一步都会影响财政运行脆弱性根源的及时发现,以至于会影响提出科学合理的财政政策。
(4)基于国际货币基金组织GFS(2001)的要求,对中国政府财政统计流量与存量帐户以及统计核算准则的改革进行了具体研究,并指出了改革指导方案。论证了通过政府运营表、其他经济流量表、资产负债表和现金来源与使用表评估政府活动对经济的影响和财政政策的可持续性。论证了财政统计中推行权责发生制的必要性,提出了推进改革的指导性方案,研究了中国政府财政行为变动的记录时间以及记录基础。
本文对政府财政统计核算体系的研究也还有一些不足,对中国政府财政统计体系的改革有些还只是提出一些设想,要真正建立完善的政府财政统计体系,还需要作进一步研究。对健康财政的评价本可以用统计方法作一些实证方面的研究,但由于所需的某些数据较难获得,只是指出了分析方向。本文主要是基于政府财政统计核算体系技术方面的分析,对影响原始数据质量方面研究较少。这些都是今后需要不断加强研究的地方。
Since the1990s, the world broke out a serious financial crisis in Mexico and in Asian. When two crisis were still remembered, the outbreak of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis happened in2007. After two years it caused the global economic crisis. However, the world economy had not yet come out from this crisis, the European debt crisis began to be staged and now is ongoing. Throughout the crises, whether it was a financial crisis, economic crisis or the current interpretation of the European debt crisis, it showed that the financial risks until the crisis often had a direct or indirect relationship with the government debt crisis and financial payments crisis. The huge government budget deficit may conducted diffused and induced the financial crisis, the financial crisis might also be passing spread, induced the Government's fiscal crisis and the budget crisis would deepen the financial crisis further. From the European debt crisis, we see the practice in Greece and other European multi-countries. Then the fact shows that whether the crisis break out and how it impacts on others are relative to the national financial strength. Finance is the important means of government response to the crisis and the safeguards to combine comprehensive disposal program fall for the real,as well as making up the loss caused by the crisis.
In order to regulate the world's macroeconomic statistics to facilitate the exchange and comparison of countries. After decades of development and improvement, the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and other international organizations develop a series of international statistics specification, of which the most important is the National Accounting System (SNA) after multiple revisions and the Balance of Payments Statistics manual (BOP), the Monetary and Financial Statistics manual (MFS) and Government finance Statistics manual(GFS). Since Chinese reform and opening up, statistics academia study the macroeconomic statistical systems in China and has established a national economic accounting system compatible with the social market economic system. However, the government finance statistics is still relatively weak in the overall macroeconomic statistical system. Therefore, studying Chinese government finance statistics are meaningful in the practical and theoretical side.
This study reforms the existing system of government finance statistics following the IMF GFS (2001) framework and combines with national conditions in China, builds the GFS system, thereby improving the overall quality of fiscal statistics. The starting point of this study is that the GFS in China is more in line with the requirement of the market economy system and the international norms. We want to provide real and effective data for healthy financial statistical analysis which is good for finding the weak roots of the GFS in China and provide a scientific basis for policy formulation in order to achieve the healthy development of the Chinese government finance.
Paper consists of eight chapters, each chapter is organized as follows:
The chapter Ⅰ introduction. First part put the question with the combination of the recent crises and pointed out that there was a mutal interpretation between the financial crisis and the fiscal crisis; Second part showed the study's theoretical and practical significance; Third was about the research status and commentary and summarized the basic situation of the statistical study in existing Government Finance Statistics.On the basis of the results, making the clear focus of this study needed to be done; Fourth part introduced the structure and content of the paper; Fifth summarized the main innovation and insufficient part of the work.
The chapter Ⅱ was about the theoretical basis and development of the government finance statistics. From two aspects of the revision process of the development of financial theory and international financial statistics, this chapter began to collate and summarize the emergence and development of government finance statistics.The paper's forcus was on the characteristics and statistics range of the Government Finance Statistics Manual2001and explained the relationship between the government finance statistics with the other three major macroeconomic statistical systems.
Chapter III showed Chinese Government Finance Statistics system status and direction of reform. First part described the overall situation of the Chinese Government Finance Statistics system, including the scope of the accounting covered, the accounting basis, the core content is the flowing of financial funds, as well as grouping and index system content; Second, after the carding of the implementation of the GFS, we analyzed Government Finance Statistics in Australia and Canada and provided its significance for China to promote the reform of GFS; Last we pointed the gap between Chinese Government Finance Statistics and GFS (2001). The major accounting scope was various. The basis of accounting on a cash to achieve system did not follow the accrual. The revenue and expenditure classification system was following GFS(1986) classification system. The financial analysis index system still used the budget deficit indicators. We explored how to reform.
Chapter IV was about the research of GFS classification system in China. This chapter is a focus of this paper. Firstly we described the basic framework and the principle of the classification of government revenue in China; Secondly according to the IMF's Government Finance Statistics Balance of Payments Classification GFS(2001) and the Chinese government revenue classification, we supported the principle of two classifications conversion, under which we designed government revenue, and functional classification of government spending, government spending and economic conversion preparation method provides a scientific basis for the future reform of the classification of government revenue.
Chapter V was about the GFS system statistics expansion of the scope-to build financial and social security funds of state-owned capital statistics Satellite Account. This chapter was another focus in this paper. We introduced the scope of government finance statistics accounting, including accounting accounting scope of GFS (2001) and the Chinese Government Finance Statistics and pointed out that the existing financial statistics and accounting range unscientific; Second, we expanded the scope of government finance statistics to build a Chinese state-owned capital finance Statistics satellite account accounting system. According to China's national conditions, the reform of state-owned enterprises are still in a very important position and the state-owned capital is critical to the health problems of government finances, not just put a public company into the accounting and other state-owned capital should put its business into the accounting and make effective convergence; Finally, in accordance with the accounting scope of GFS (2001), we demonstrated that social security comprehensive included in the accounting of the scope of the need to build statistical satellite Account accounting system of China's social security funds, and designed to be fully integrated into the social security accounting scope of social security and government finance statistics convergence mode.
Chapter VI described the Chinese Government Finance Statistics and method of accounting reform. This chapter was the focus of the study, including the two parts of the Chinese Government Finance Statistics the accounting object reform and the Chinese Government Finance Statistics Accounting Standards reform. The accounting objects part of the main analyzed GFS (2001) in the overall framework of government operations table, other economic flow statement, balance sheet and cash sources and uses table four tables, and argued that government activities could be assessed through the four tables on the economy the impact and sustainability of fiscal policy, the guidance of the reform of the accounting object. The accounting guidelines section pointed the Chinese Government Finance Statistics Accounting Standards was based on the framework of reform of GFS(2001).Rreviewing the construction of accounting guidelines, and analysis of the advantages of accrual and cash basis the shortcomings of the system, we pointed out that the need for the implementation of accrual reform guidance; Secondly, the record of the basis of the Chinese government fiscal behavior changed statistical record time as well as the Chinese system of government finance statistics.
Chapter VII was about government finance statistics analysis function. It based on the health of the financial and government finance statistics to prepare healthy financial analysis index system. From financial crisis, sustainability of fiscal revenue, fiscal expenditure performance, we evaluated and analysized the financial health of the Chinese government to provide a scientific method for the evaluation of fiscal policy, which is conductive to the government's fiscal health and sustainable development.
Chapter VIII was of summary and outlook. On the one hand, we summarized and reviewed the focus of this study and the results and pointed out the deficiencies in the study; On the other hand, we pointed out the further research was needed.
With the IMF GFS (2001) framework,we made many innovations for further reform of the system of government finance statistics:
1. we want to expand the contents of the Chinese Government Finance Statistics. On the one hand, we combined with China's national conditions, as well as the characteristics of the state capital and considered the state-owned capital should be fully integrated into the Government's financial accounting system, rather than completely fellow GFS (2001) referred to a public company, and designed a convergence between state-owned capital Finance and Government Finance Statistics; On the other hand, we proposed China had not yet integrated the accounting of the scope of government finance statistics social security funds fully into the accounting. And we built statistical Satellite Account accounting system of China's social security funds, as well as designed convergence model of social security funds and government finance statistics.
2. We studied fiscal revenue and expenditure classification system of the Chinese government and the International Monetary Fund Organization government fiscal revenue and expenditure classification system, according to the difference in the balance of payments classification subjects. According to government revenue, the function of government spending, government spending economic,we made conversion and phased reform program for China's government finance statistics and international norms. Pointing out that the current Chinese government revenue and expenditure classification system was unscientific and according to the current classification of income overstated government revenues, this did not lead to increased income items classified as income, in fact, was the conversion between the assets owned by the government, the same on the expenditure side, there were such cases, some spending overlapping, this could not be true reflection of the government's net wealth, the net wealth was the government really could be used to resist spending generated by the financial crisis and the financial crisis.
3. We evaluated the Chinese Government Finance Statistics analysis functions. Different from other studies which made research or evaluation system by separate studies, or just studied the accounting system of government finance statistics, our study was built on the basis of statistical accounting system.We made a healthy financial evaluation index system and combined the two together. Then we further pointed out that the integrity of the statistical system should be one from the statistics of the original data to the data processing. Every step would affect the timely discovery of the root causes of vulnerability of the financial operation and affected the scientific and rational fiscal policy.
4. Our research was based on the IMF GFS (2001) requirements and studied the flow and stock accounts, as well as statistical accounting standards reform of China's Government Finance Statistics. Our study demonstrated that the sustainability of government activities impacted on the economy and fiscal policy by the government operations table, other economic flow statement, balance sheet and cash sources and use table. We recorded the need for accrual basis and proposed reform of the instructional program as well as record time that changed in government fiscal behavior of the GFS system.
There are still some shortcomings in our study of integration of financial statistics. The ideas about the GFS system reform are just tentative plan. This requires further study to establish a perfect system of government finance statistics. Evaluation of the financial health should have used statistical methods to make some empirical research, while because of some of the data is difficult to obtain, we just point out the direction of the analysis. This study is based on the analysis of the technical aspects of government finance statistics accounting system and describes little the quality of the raw data. These need to continue to strengthen in future.
引文
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