基于SWAT模型的滦河流域分布式水文模拟与干旱评价方法研究
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摘要
受到人类活动和气候变化的综合影响，水资源短缺和极端水文事件频繁发生已成为世界性问题。基于分布式水文模拟与地理信息技术，从流域尺度探讨土地利用/覆被变化的水文过程和干旱特征响应问题，对于流域水土资源合理开发利用和社会经济可持续发展具有重要意义。
滦河流域是海河流域的4个一级分区之一，是环渤海经济圈重要的水源地之一，也是我国水资源系统最脆弱，且干旱频发的地区之一。为此本文通过构建流域分布式水文模型与干旱评价模式，从常态水文过程（径流、蒸散发等）和干旱特征（干旱影响范围、频率、持续时间和强度）两个方面分别模拟评价土地利用/覆被变化的水文响应过程，形成了干旱评价及其对于流域土地利用/覆被变化响应研究的技术方法体系；并基于改进的径流演变归因识别技术定量分离滦河流域历史径流演变过程中气候变化和具体的人类活动因素的影响程度。通过本研究，以期为流域土地利用合理规划、水资源科学管理和干旱应对提供参考。主要研究内容和成果如下：
（一）针对流域雨量站降水资料不完整的情况，建立了降水数据时间维尺度扩展方法，实现了流域雨量站降水资料的估算延长，为流域长时间尺度分布式水文模拟提供了数据基础，并在一定程度上可以提高径流模拟精度。在此基础上建立了滦河流域SWAT分布式水文模型。
（二）基于流域分布式水文模型研究了1985和2000年土地利用实际状况与构建的土地利用/覆被情景下水文过程的响应。相对于1985年土地利用状况，由于林地向草地和耕地的转变，从而导致2000年土地利用状况下径流量和洪峰流量有所增加，且年均地表径流变化空间差异显著；其它土地利用/覆被情景也将会对流域水文过程产生不同程度的影响。
（三）考虑到现有干旱评价方法大多只是根据干旱形成的某一因素（降水）或者旱情表现的某一特征（土壤墒情）来评价干旱程度，且在表现旱情的区域差异等方面存在不足。论文根据SWAT分布式水文模型的输出结果，从水循环角度，依循Palmer旱度模式原理，建立了滦河流域干旱评价模式。继而从干旱影响范围、发生频率、持续时间和强度等方面评价了1985~2000年间流域土地利用/覆被变化对干旱的影响，形成干旱响应评价的技术方法。研究认为滦河流域1985~2000年间的土地利用变化过程将会导致流域中上游大部分地区干旱范围、频率、持续时间和强度均有不同程度的增加，旱情加剧。
（四）通过改进径流演变归因识别技术，应用天然时期（1971~1979年）的水文气象资料构建流域SWAT分布式水文模型，进而基于水文模型模拟还原人类活动影响期（1980~2000年）的天然径流量，区分人类活动和气候变化对径流变化的影响程度。结果显示气候变化和人类活动对滦河流域径流量减小的贡献率分别为26.5%和73.5%，人类活动是滦河流域径流减小的主要驱动因素。并结合统计叠加得到的包括水库调度、工农业和生活用水等社会经济取用水的还原径流量，进一步细分了人类活动对径流的影响，其中水利工程、工农业和生活用水等经济社会因素对流域径流减小的影响程度为47.0%，相对于下垫面变化的影响更加显著。
With the effects of human activities and climate change, the water resources shortageand frequently occurring hydrological extremes have been the serious worldwideproblems. Based on distributed hydrological simulation and geographical informationtechnology, stdudy on hydrological processes and drought response to land use/coverchange is of great important to exploit and use water and land resources reasonably,social economy sustainable development.
As one of the four first order zoning areas of Haihe river basin, Luanhe river basinis one of the most important water resources areas of economic circle around BohaiSea, and it is one of the places where water resource system is most vulnerable andhave more frequent droughts. Therefore, the paper established the distributedhydrological simulation and drought evaluation model, and the hydrolgical responseto land use/cover change were simualted and evaluated from two aspects of normalhydrological processes and drought characteristics, and formed a evaluation methodabout drought evaluation and response to land use/cover change. Besidies, theattribution of climate variablity and human activities for runoff decrease wasquantitatively assessed in Luanhe river basin. Through the above researches, wemainly obtained the following conclusions:
(1) The spatial distribution of precipitation has an important impact on distributedhydrological simulation. Aiming at precipitation records incompleteness of gauges inthe Luanhe river basin, the paper established the time scale extend method forprecipitation, thus estimating the precipitation data of gauges and providing datafoundation for distributed hydrological simulation in the long time scales. Comparedwith the directly utility of precipitation data of meteorological station, the method can increase the accuracy of runoff simulation to some extent. On that basis, the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) distributed hydrological model was established inLuanhe river basin.
(2) Based on the establised distributed hydrological model, the paper analyzed thehydrological processes response to1985and2000land use conditions, and landuse/cover scenarios. Compared that land use condition in1985, the land use changesfrom forest to farmland and grassland would led to increase of runoff and peak flowbetween1985and2000land use. The change of average annual surface runoff hadsignificantly spatial variability, and other land use/cover change scenarios also haddifferent effects on hydrological processes.
(3) Given that the exsiting drought indices evaluated drought only from oneforming factor (precipitation) or characteristic(soil moisture), and the shortage ofreflecting the spatial heterogeneity of regional drought. Referring to Pamler droughtseverity model, the paper proposed a drought evaluation model combined thesimulation results of hydrological components based on SWAT model. On that basis,drought response to land use/cover change were analyzed from drought infulenceregions, frequency, duration and severity, thus form a evaluation method aboutdrought and response to land use/cover change. Results indicated that the droughtregions, frequency, duration and severity would be increased under the2000land use.
(4) On the basis of the improved attribution analysis method of water resourcesevolution, the attribution for runoff decrease was quantitatively assessed in theLuanhe river basin. The SWAT model was calibrated with hrdro-meteorological datain the natural period (1971-1979). Then using the same model parameters andmeteorological data in the impacted period (1980-2000), the natural streamflow in theimpacted period could be reconstructed by hydrological model. Therefore, thecontribution of climate variability and human activities to runoff change could bequantitatively estimated. Results indicated that the decrease of runoff from1980-2000could be attributed to26.5%and73.5%from climate variability and human activities,respectively. Human activities were main reasons of runoff reduction in Luanhe riverbasin. Then combined the restored runoff through added the social and economic water uses including the water storage of the reservoirs, industrial and agriculturalwater use to measured runoff, the paper further analyzed the attribution of differenthuman activities for runoff reduction, and the contribution of social economicfactor(reservoirs, industrial and agricultural water use) was47%. Compared withunderlying surface condition (land use/cover etc.), the social economic factor hadsignificant effect on runoff reduction.
滦河流域是海河流域的4个一级分区之一，是环渤海经济圈重要的水源地之一，也是我国水资源系统最脆弱，且干旱频发的地区之一。为此本文通过构建流域分布式水文模型与干旱评价模式，从常态水文过程（径流、蒸散发等）和干旱特征（干旱影响范围、频率、持续时间和强度）两个方面分别模拟评价土地利用/覆被变化的水文响应过程，形成了干旱评价及其对于流域土地利用/覆被变化响应研究的技术方法体系；并基于改进的径流演变归因识别技术定量分离滦河流域历史径流演变过程中气候变化和具体的人类活动因素的影响程度。通过本研究，以期为流域土地利用合理规划、水资源科学管理和干旱应对提供参考。主要研究内容和成果如下：
（一）针对流域雨量站降水资料不完整的情况，建立了降水数据时间维尺度扩展方法，实现了流域雨量站降水资料的估算延长，为流域长时间尺度分布式水文模拟提供了数据基础，并在一定程度上可以提高径流模拟精度。在此基础上建立了滦河流域SWAT分布式水文模型。
（二）基于流域分布式水文模型研究了1985和2000年土地利用实际状况与构建的土地利用/覆被情景下水文过程的响应。相对于1985年土地利用状况，由于林地向草地和耕地的转变，从而导致2000年土地利用状况下径流量和洪峰流量有所增加，且年均地表径流变化空间差异显著；其它土地利用/覆被情景也将会对流域水文过程产生不同程度的影响。
（三）考虑到现有干旱评价方法大多只是根据干旱形成的某一因素（降水）或者旱情表现的某一特征（土壤墒情）来评价干旱程度，且在表现旱情的区域差异等方面存在不足。论文根据SWAT分布式水文模型的输出结果，从水循环角度，依循Palmer旱度模式原理，建立了滦河流域干旱评价模式。继而从干旱影响范围、发生频率、持续时间和强度等方面评价了1985~2000年间流域土地利用/覆被变化对干旱的影响，形成干旱响应评价的技术方法。研究认为滦河流域1985~2000年间的土地利用变化过程将会导致流域中上游大部分地区干旱范围、频率、持续时间和强度均有不同程度的增加，旱情加剧。
（四）通过改进径流演变归因识别技术，应用天然时期（1971~1979年）的水文气象资料构建流域SWAT分布式水文模型，进而基于水文模型模拟还原人类活动影响期（1980~2000年）的天然径流量，区分人类活动和气候变化对径流变化的影响程度。结果显示气候变化和人类活动对滦河流域径流量减小的贡献率分别为26.5%和73.5%，人类活动是滦河流域径流减小的主要驱动因素。并结合统计叠加得到的包括水库调度、工农业和生活用水等社会经济取用水的还原径流量，进一步细分了人类活动对径流的影响，其中水利工程、工农业和生活用水等经济社会因素对流域径流减小的影响程度为47.0%，相对于下垫面变化的影响更加显著。
With the effects of human activities and climate change, the water resources shortageand frequently occurring hydrological extremes have been the serious worldwideproblems. Based on distributed hydrological simulation and geographical informationtechnology, stdudy on hydrological processes and drought response to land use/coverchange is of great important to exploit and use water and land resources reasonably,social economy sustainable development.
As one of the four first order zoning areas of Haihe river basin, Luanhe river basinis one of the most important water resources areas of economic circle around BohaiSea, and it is one of the places where water resource system is most vulnerable andhave more frequent droughts. Therefore, the paper established the distributedhydrological simulation and drought evaluation model, and the hydrolgical responseto land use/cover change were simualted and evaluated from two aspects of normalhydrological processes and drought characteristics, and formed a evaluation methodabout drought evaluation and response to land use/cover change. Besidies, theattribution of climate variablity and human activities for runoff decrease wasquantitatively assessed in Luanhe river basin. Through the above researches, wemainly obtained the following conclusions:
(1) The spatial distribution of precipitation has an important impact on distributedhydrological simulation. Aiming at precipitation records incompleteness of gauges inthe Luanhe river basin, the paper established the time scale extend method forprecipitation, thus estimating the precipitation data of gauges and providing datafoundation for distributed hydrological simulation in the long time scales. Comparedwith the directly utility of precipitation data of meteorological station, the method can increase the accuracy of runoff simulation to some extent. On that basis, the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) distributed hydrological model was established inLuanhe river basin.
(2) Based on the establised distributed hydrological model, the paper analyzed thehydrological processes response to1985and2000land use conditions, and landuse/cover scenarios. Compared that land use condition in1985, the land use changesfrom forest to farmland and grassland would led to increase of runoff and peak flowbetween1985and2000land use. The change of average annual surface runoff hadsignificantly spatial variability, and other land use/cover change scenarios also haddifferent effects on hydrological processes.
(3) Given that the exsiting drought indices evaluated drought only from oneforming factor (precipitation) or characteristic(soil moisture), and the shortage ofreflecting the spatial heterogeneity of regional drought. Referring to Pamler droughtseverity model, the paper proposed a drought evaluation model combined thesimulation results of hydrological components based on SWAT model. On that basis,drought response to land use/cover change were analyzed from drought infulenceregions, frequency, duration and severity, thus form a evaluation method aboutdrought and response to land use/cover change. Results indicated that the droughtregions, frequency, duration and severity would be increased under the2000land use.
(4) On the basis of the improved attribution analysis method of water resourcesevolution, the attribution for runoff decrease was quantitatively assessed in theLuanhe river basin. The SWAT model was calibrated with hrdro-meteorological datain the natural period (1971-1979). Then using the same model parameters andmeteorological data in the impacted period (1980-2000), the natural streamflow in theimpacted period could be reconstructed by hydrological model. Therefore, thecontribution of climate variability and human activities to runoff change could bequantitatively estimated. Results indicated that the decrease of runoff from1980-2000could be attributed to26.5%and73.5%from climate variability and human activities,respectively. Human activities were main reasons of runoff reduction in Luanhe riverbasin. Then combined the restored runoff through added the social and economic water uses including the water storage of the reservoirs, industrial and agriculturalwater use to measured runoff, the paper further analyzed the attribution of differenthuman activities for runoff reduction, and the contribution of social economicfactor(reservoirs, industrial and agricultural water use) was47%. Compared withunderlying surface condition (land use/cover etc.), the social economic factor hadsignificant effect on runoff reduction.
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