中国耕地生态系统运行效应与响应
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摘要
耕地生态系统是一个资源利用复杂、功能多样、动态发展的生态系统。对耕地生态系统运行的综合效应进行全面的分析和评价，对指导今后耕地生态系统的优化和可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。
本文以中国耕地生态系统为例，并以省级行政区为评价单元，结合系统科学理论、能值理论、可持续发展理论以及系统动力学理论等，对中国大陆地区31个省级行政区的耕地生态系统运行的资源利用效应、多功能效应以及国家尺度的耕地生态系统发展动态效应进行了深入的分析。
基于能值理论建立了中国耕地生态系统的能值评价指标体系，从系统集约利用度、规模经营度、投资密度、环境压力、产出效益、产出密度、人均产出以及经济效益等八个方面对31个地区进行了深入分析，并运用系统聚类分析法，将31个地区的耕地生态系统划分成10种发展模式，并提出相应的改善建议。
将中国耕地生态系统的功能划分为五类：生产功能、供给功能、生态功能、保障功能和经济功能。并通过构建集对分析模型，对31个地区的多功能效应进行比较分析。同时将其划分为9种综合功能区划，并针对不同功能分区的脆弱功能提出优化途径。
从中国粮食安全的角度，对中国耕地生态系统的压力指数进行了定义，并基于系统动力学方法，构建了PI-SD模型来模拟和预测了中国耕地生态系统压力指数的发展趋势。通过参数调整，设置了不同的情景模式，对中国耕地生态系统的未来发展进行了仿真研究，并提出可选择的优化方案。
为了解决中国粮食安全问题，同时达到促进耕地生态系统资源利用效应和多功能效应的目的，本研究基于提出的优化方案，对中国耕地生态系统的压力响应提出了压力-分配-响应方案。基于该方案，对系统的综合压力进行了分配，提出了不同地区的压力分配任务、压力响应策略以及实施保障策略，为中国开展全面的耕地生态系统优化发展提供指导和借鉴。
Cultivated land ecosystem is an ecosystem with complex resources utilization effect,multifunctionality and dynamic development characteristics. Comprehensive analysisand evaluation for the system can be the guidance for the cultivated land resources’optimal utilization and sustainable development, and have important practicalsignificance.
This paper had a case study of China’s cultivated land ecosystem, set provincialadministrative region as the evaluation unit, combined with the system scientifictheory, emergy theory, sustainable development theory and system dynamic theory,analyzed and evaluated the resources utilization effects, multifunction effects of the31provincial regions in mainland China and the dynamic development effects ofChina’s cultivated land ecosystem.
The emergy evaluation indicators system was established based on the emergytheory and8emergy indicators were selected to analyze the cultivated land ecosystemin the31provincial regions of mainland China to compare intensive use, scalemanagement, investment density, environmental pressure, output benefit, outputdensity, output per capita, and economic benefit. The study conducted a comparisonof each indicator in different regions, divided the31regions into10groups by clusteranalysis, and made some appropriate recommendations for improvement.
Five functions were summarized to represent the multifunctionality of China’scultivated land ecosystem, including production function, supply function, ecologicalfunction, security function and economic function. By using the set pair analysismethod, this paper set a case study of the31regions, conducted a comparison of eachfunction in different regions, divided into9groups by cluster analysis, and madesome recommendations for improving the fragile functions.
From the view of China’s food security, this paper defined the pressure index ofcultivated land ecosystem, and established PI-SD model for simulating andforecasting the development trend of China’s pressure index. By adjust the variables and set different scenarios, the study analyzed the dynamic characteristics of thepressure index under different conditions. Finally, the optional decisions had beenproposed.
In order to solve the food security problem of China, and achieve the purpose ofoptimization of cultivated land ecosystem’s resources utilization effects andmultifunction effects, this paper established the pressure-distribution-response frame(PDR frame). Based on the frame, the study finished the distribution of the pressure,proposed the pressure response strategies and the guarantee strategies for theimplementation. The results and conclusions provide guidance and reference for theoptimization and the sustainable development of China’s cultivated land ecosystem.
本文以中国耕地生态系统为例，并以省级行政区为评价单元，结合系统科学理论、能值理论、可持续发展理论以及系统动力学理论等，对中国大陆地区31个省级行政区的耕地生态系统运行的资源利用效应、多功能效应以及国家尺度的耕地生态系统发展动态效应进行了深入的分析。
基于能值理论建立了中国耕地生态系统的能值评价指标体系，从系统集约利用度、规模经营度、投资密度、环境压力、产出效益、产出密度、人均产出以及经济效益等八个方面对31个地区进行了深入分析，并运用系统聚类分析法，将31个地区的耕地生态系统划分成10种发展模式，并提出相应的改善建议。
将中国耕地生态系统的功能划分为五类：生产功能、供给功能、生态功能、保障功能和经济功能。并通过构建集对分析模型，对31个地区的多功能效应进行比较分析。同时将其划分为9种综合功能区划，并针对不同功能分区的脆弱功能提出优化途径。
从中国粮食安全的角度，对中国耕地生态系统的压力指数进行了定义，并基于系统动力学方法，构建了PI-SD模型来模拟和预测了中国耕地生态系统压力指数的发展趋势。通过参数调整，设置了不同的情景模式，对中国耕地生态系统的未来发展进行了仿真研究，并提出可选择的优化方案。
为了解决中国粮食安全问题，同时达到促进耕地生态系统资源利用效应和多功能效应的目的，本研究基于提出的优化方案，对中国耕地生态系统的压力响应提出了压力-分配-响应方案。基于该方案，对系统的综合压力进行了分配，提出了不同地区的压力分配任务、压力响应策略以及实施保障策略，为中国开展全面的耕地生态系统优化发展提供指导和借鉴。
Cultivated land ecosystem is an ecosystem with complex resources utilization effect,multifunctionality and dynamic development characteristics. Comprehensive analysisand evaluation for the system can be the guidance for the cultivated land resources’optimal utilization and sustainable development, and have important practicalsignificance.
This paper had a case study of China’s cultivated land ecosystem, set provincialadministrative region as the evaluation unit, combined with the system scientifictheory, emergy theory, sustainable development theory and system dynamic theory,analyzed and evaluated the resources utilization effects, multifunction effects of the31provincial regions in mainland China and the dynamic development effects ofChina’s cultivated land ecosystem.
The emergy evaluation indicators system was established based on the emergytheory and8emergy indicators were selected to analyze the cultivated land ecosystemin the31provincial regions of mainland China to compare intensive use, scalemanagement, investment density, environmental pressure, output benefit, outputdensity, output per capita, and economic benefit. The study conducted a comparisonof each indicator in different regions, divided the31regions into10groups by clusteranalysis, and made some appropriate recommendations for improvement.
Five functions were summarized to represent the multifunctionality of China’scultivated land ecosystem, including production function, supply function, ecologicalfunction, security function and economic function. By using the set pair analysismethod, this paper set a case study of the31regions, conducted a comparison of eachfunction in different regions, divided into9groups by cluster analysis, and madesome recommendations for improving the fragile functions.
From the view of China’s food security, this paper defined the pressure index ofcultivated land ecosystem, and established PI-SD model for simulating andforecasting the development trend of China’s pressure index. By adjust the variables and set different scenarios, the study analyzed the dynamic characteristics of thepressure index under different conditions. Finally, the optional decisions had beenproposed.
In order to solve the food security problem of China, and achieve the purpose ofoptimization of cultivated land ecosystem’s resources utilization effects andmultifunction effects, this paper established the pressure-distribution-response frame(PDR frame). Based on the frame, the study finished the distribution of the pressure,proposed the pressure response strategies and the guarantee strategies for theimplementation. The results and conclusions provide guidance and reference for theoptimization and the sustainable development of China’s cultivated land ecosystem.
引文
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