中国政府卫生支出的规模、结构与绩效研究
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摘要
随着医学技术的不断发展和医疗保障制度的日益完善,世界各国的政府卫生支出均呈现出迅猛的增长趋势。在这一趋势所导致的压力下,如何制订、评价和优化政府对卫生的投入,逐渐引起了国际卫生经济学界的广泛关注。从政府卫生支出的分析范式来看,目前已有研究主要集中于卫生筹资层面,研究的焦点是卫生总费用相对规模的有关特征。然而在实践中,对于政府卫生支出合理机制的安排,还须结合考虑各种影响政府投入的重要因素,以及投入与卫生资源产出配置、投入与公众健康水平和经济增长之间的关系等等问题。仅仅关注卫生投入规模问题,无法对中国政府卫生支出合理机制做出全面合理的解释。
基于此,本文将研究的层面深入到政府卫生支出的规模、结构和绩效评价上。在对政府财政支出理论、人力资本理论及健康影响因素理论等政府卫生支出相关理论分别进行系统评述的基础上,本文从政府卫生支出的适宜规模、合理结构、理想绩效这三个逻辑基点出发,对政府卫生支出规模及其影响因素、政府卫生支出结构及其影响因素、政府卫生支出的健康和经济发展绩效展开了分析。在实证研究中,采用STATA10.0软件进行计量经济学模型的统计分析,检验了相关理论。通过上述研究过程,得出如下主要结论:
首先,经济收入和财政对卫生事业的投入是决定中国政府卫生支出规模的主要因素。与以往基于筹资层面分析政府卫生支出规模的文献不同,本文通过构建分省层面的面板数据固定效应模型,识别了中国政府卫生支出规模的影响因素。与国外文献对大多数发展中国家研究的结论类似,经济收入和财政对卫生事业的投入依然是决定中国政府卫生支出规模的主要因素。此外,政府卫生支出显示出受到人口的年龄结构、出生率、传染病发病率等因素的影响,上述因素的共同作用可在一定程度上解释政府卫生支出规模变化的原因。
其次,中国政府卫生支出功能结构中,医疗保险支出和公共卫生支出的比重呈现增长趋势。目前理论界更多地是在既往政府卫生支出结构的前提下探讨功能项目的相对支出,尚未发现针对各功能项目比重及其影响因素的实证研究。本文对不同国家政府卫生支出的功能项目划分、不同项目所占的比重进行了国际比较分忻,随后在总结梳理中国政府卫生支出功能结构的历史演变的基础上,构建了中国政府卫生支出功能结构的影响因素研究框架,实证研究结果明确了经济和人口因素对政府卫生支出功能结构的效应,揭示了随着经济的不断发展、居民文化程度的普遍提高、老龄化趋势的进一步加剧,政府卫生支出中医疗保险支出和公共卫生支出的比重将继续增长的重要特点。
最后,政府卫生支出对中国国民健康水平与经济增长之间的关系兼具正向效应。鉴于目前的研究尚未解决异方差性和自相关性的问题,本文给予了从政府卫生支出到国民健康,再到经济持续发展的传导通路,将政府财政支出理论、人力资本理论、健康影响因素理论进行了有益的结合。实证研究结果表明,政府卫生支出的规模及卫生事业费所占的比重对于总体死亡率的下降和经济增长率有显著的影响。同时,通过实证分析还发现,国民健康和经济增长还受到除了政府卫生支出以外其他因素的影响,包括收入水平、教育、城市化等。
综上,本文从规模、结构和绩效角度验证了政府卫生支出研究的合理机制,探讨了其中的内在机理,为中国政府卫生支出机制在规模、结构和绩效角度方面得以优化的实践活动提供了一定的理论参考和实证依据。
Government Health Expenditure (GHE) in China has been growing rapidly over the past forty decades. This rapid growth brings an improvement in life expectancy and quality of life to Chinese people, but it also jeopardizes the sustainability of public budgets. Consequently, there are increasing research interests in the determinants of health care expenditures, as well as the linkage between government health expenditures and health outcomes. Those findings would provide certain evidence for the purpose of establishing an effective health care system with country characteristics, without which the goal of raising the health level of the people could not be fully realized.
On this basis, this paper is to further focus on all including the level, structure and performance about government health expenditure. Having given an up to date overview of the literature on the theories of public financing, health capital and health determinants, this paper analyzes the determinants of the scale, structure and performance of the government health expenditure in China. On the ground of making clear definitions, the paper sets a logic framework involving study scope and clue for the full page. Empirical analysis is done with STATA 10.0 to explore the effect of various determinants and the performance of government health expenditure, using econometric models.
The results suggest that:
First, determinants of government health expenditure in China range from economic factors to social and health factors, among which economic factors are most important drivers of government health expenditures, consistent with other studies. The paper expands current research content of the scale of government health expenditure by exploring its determinants at national, regional and provincial levels using a fixed-effect-model. Besides, several factors, such as age, birth rate, incidence rate of communicative disease, also contribute to the government health expenditure.
Second, the functional structure of Chinese government health expenditure is expected to change. Together with the result of an international comparison, significant relationships are found between the structure of government health expenditure on the one hand and GDP, total government expenditure, aging population etc. on the other hand. With the economic development and an aging population, we would probably see a higher proportion of health insurance and public health in total government health investment than other components in future. Thus, efforts should be made to construct and improve the government health investment mechanism and both the central and local governments shall increase their health investment, and reconcile the needs of both the supplier and the recipient.
Finally, consistent with most findings in the literature, Chinese government health expenditure turns out to have a positive impact on both health improvement and economic development, including crude mortality, infant mortality rate, and under-five mortality rate. Based upon huge literatures in the field of public financing, health capital theory, as well as determinants of government health expenditure, this paper attempts to explore the contribution of government health expenditure on health and economic outcomes by empirical analysis. From this we conclude that the government should stand at the dominant position in providing public health and basic health care services; and the government also ought to make serious analysis of the efficiency of the current expenditure patterns before increasing expenditures in health or other sectors, as health outcomes are also determined by factors other than just government health expenditures; besides, the government should make efforts to make sure that the fairness and efficiency of funds utilization to maximize health outcomes.
Above all, this paper introduces and then tests a theoretical framework to gain a full picture of appropriate arrangement of government health expenditure in China, in the hope of providing some innovative evidence for policy-making in practice.
基于此,本文将研究的层面深入到政府卫生支出的规模、结构和绩效评价上。在对政府财政支出理论、人力资本理论及健康影响因素理论等政府卫生支出相关理论分别进行系统评述的基础上,本文从政府卫生支出的适宜规模、合理结构、理想绩效这三个逻辑基点出发,对政府卫生支出规模及其影响因素、政府卫生支出结构及其影响因素、政府卫生支出的健康和经济发展绩效展开了分析。在实证研究中,采用STATA10.0软件进行计量经济学模型的统计分析,检验了相关理论。通过上述研究过程,得出如下主要结论:
首先,经济收入和财政对卫生事业的投入是决定中国政府卫生支出规模的主要因素。与以往基于筹资层面分析政府卫生支出规模的文献不同,本文通过构建分省层面的面板数据固定效应模型,识别了中国政府卫生支出规模的影响因素。与国外文献对大多数发展中国家研究的结论类似,经济收入和财政对卫生事业的投入依然是决定中国政府卫生支出规模的主要因素。此外,政府卫生支出显示出受到人口的年龄结构、出生率、传染病发病率等因素的影响,上述因素的共同作用可在一定程度上解释政府卫生支出规模变化的原因。
其次,中国政府卫生支出功能结构中,医疗保险支出和公共卫生支出的比重呈现增长趋势。目前理论界更多地是在既往政府卫生支出结构的前提下探讨功能项目的相对支出,尚未发现针对各功能项目比重及其影响因素的实证研究。本文对不同国家政府卫生支出的功能项目划分、不同项目所占的比重进行了国际比较分忻,随后在总结梳理中国政府卫生支出功能结构的历史演变的基础上,构建了中国政府卫生支出功能结构的影响因素研究框架,实证研究结果明确了经济和人口因素对政府卫生支出功能结构的效应,揭示了随着经济的不断发展、居民文化程度的普遍提高、老龄化趋势的进一步加剧,政府卫生支出中医疗保险支出和公共卫生支出的比重将继续增长的重要特点。
最后,政府卫生支出对中国国民健康水平与经济增长之间的关系兼具正向效应。鉴于目前的研究尚未解决异方差性和自相关性的问题,本文给予了从政府卫生支出到国民健康,再到经济持续发展的传导通路,将政府财政支出理论、人力资本理论、健康影响因素理论进行了有益的结合。实证研究结果表明,政府卫生支出的规模及卫生事业费所占的比重对于总体死亡率的下降和经济增长率有显著的影响。同时,通过实证分析还发现,国民健康和经济增长还受到除了政府卫生支出以外其他因素的影响,包括收入水平、教育、城市化等。
综上,本文从规模、结构和绩效角度验证了政府卫生支出研究的合理机制,探讨了其中的内在机理,为中国政府卫生支出机制在规模、结构和绩效角度方面得以优化的实践活动提供了一定的理论参考和实证依据。
Government Health Expenditure (GHE) in China has been growing rapidly over the past forty decades. This rapid growth brings an improvement in life expectancy and quality of life to Chinese people, but it also jeopardizes the sustainability of public budgets. Consequently, there are increasing research interests in the determinants of health care expenditures, as well as the linkage between government health expenditures and health outcomes. Those findings would provide certain evidence for the purpose of establishing an effective health care system with country characteristics, without which the goal of raising the health level of the people could not be fully realized.
On this basis, this paper is to further focus on all including the level, structure and performance about government health expenditure. Having given an up to date overview of the literature on the theories of public financing, health capital and health determinants, this paper analyzes the determinants of the scale, structure and performance of the government health expenditure in China. On the ground of making clear definitions, the paper sets a logic framework involving study scope and clue for the full page. Empirical analysis is done with STATA 10.0 to explore the effect of various determinants and the performance of government health expenditure, using econometric models.
The results suggest that:
First, determinants of government health expenditure in China range from economic factors to social and health factors, among which economic factors are most important drivers of government health expenditures, consistent with other studies. The paper expands current research content of the scale of government health expenditure by exploring its determinants at national, regional and provincial levels using a fixed-effect-model. Besides, several factors, such as age, birth rate, incidence rate of communicative disease, also contribute to the government health expenditure.
Second, the functional structure of Chinese government health expenditure is expected to change. Together with the result of an international comparison, significant relationships are found between the structure of government health expenditure on the one hand and GDP, total government expenditure, aging population etc. on the other hand. With the economic development and an aging population, we would probably see a higher proportion of health insurance and public health in total government health investment than other components in future. Thus, efforts should be made to construct and improve the government health investment mechanism and both the central and local governments shall increase their health investment, and reconcile the needs of both the supplier and the recipient.
Finally, consistent with most findings in the literature, Chinese government health expenditure turns out to have a positive impact on both health improvement and economic development, including crude mortality, infant mortality rate, and under-five mortality rate. Based upon huge literatures in the field of public financing, health capital theory, as well as determinants of government health expenditure, this paper attempts to explore the contribution of government health expenditure on health and economic outcomes by empirical analysis. From this we conclude that the government should stand at the dominant position in providing public health and basic health care services; and the government also ought to make serious analysis of the efficiency of the current expenditure patterns before increasing expenditures in health or other sectors, as health outcomes are also determined by factors other than just government health expenditures; besides, the government should make efforts to make sure that the fairness and efficiency of funds utilization to maximize health outcomes.
Above all, this paper introduces and then tests a theoretical framework to gain a full picture of appropriate arrangement of government health expenditure in China, in the hope of providing some innovative evidence for policy-making in practice.
引文
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