税收总水平变化规律研究
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摘要
税收总水平是指国家通过征税而占有的社会经济资源比重,用一定时期政府税收收入占同期GDP的比重来表示。在市场经济条件下,税收总水平从总体上反映了政府对整个社会经济资源的占有程度以及政府在经济中的地位。经济决定财政,财政反作用于经济,作为财政收入重要形式的税收,其税收总水平的客观限量既要保障政府履行其各项职能的物质基础,又要受到经济发展水平的制约,同时还要兼顾税收总水平对经济稳定和经济增长的影响。如果税收总水平过高,政府过度占有社会经济资源,会影响市场中正常的资本积累和经济个体的积极性,从而阻碍经济发展；如果税收总水平过低,政府的各项职能就会因为缺少物质保障而无法正常履行,同样会影响到经济稳定和经济发展。因此,确定一个合理的税收总水平,对于保证一国的经济稳定和促进经济发展有重要的意义。
税收总水平的高低及其增长速度受到各种条件的制约和影响,这些条件包括经济发展水平、生产技术水平、价格及收入分配体制等,其中最主要的是经济发展水平和生产技术水平。而生产技术水平是内含于经济发展水平之中的,所以,在税收总水平的影响因素中,经济发展水平是起决定性作用的。一国一定时期内的合理税收总水平一定是与该国当时的经济发展水平相适应的。在不同的经济发展阶段,税收总水平具有不同的特征,这种特征既包括税收总水平的数值特征,也包括税收总水平的速度特征。研究税收总水平的增长趋势,总结税收总水平在不同经济发展阶段的发展规律,可以为判断一国的税收总水平是否与经济发展水平相适应提供一个可靠的标准,也可以为估算某一经济发展水平下的合理税收总水平及增长速度提供一个科学的依据。
1994年分税制改革以来,我国的税收收入持续快速增长,1997-2010年间,我国税收收入的年增长率都在15%以上,个别年份超过了20%甚至达到了30%的增长速度,远高于同期的经济增长。税收收入的这种超经济增长的快速增加,表现在税收总水平上,就是税收总水平的不断提高。税收总水平的这种长期快速提高极大的满足了政府支出的需要,但是,这种长期快速增长是由什么原因造成的,我国当前的税收总水平及其增长特征是否是合理的,如果是合理的,会持续到什么时候,税收总水平如此快速的提高会不会对国民经济的发展产生负面影响。这些问题的解决直接影响到我国下一步财政政策的制定,这也正是本文选择税收总水平作为研究对象的现实意义所在。
研究税收总水平主要是为了解决下列问题：影响税收总水平的因素有哪些,它们是通过怎样的机制来决定税收总水平的高低的,它们之间又具有怎样的关系。合理税收总水平的判定依据是什么,标准又是什么。税收总水平的发展轨迹有没有规律可循,规律是怎样的,我国当前的税收总水平是不是合理的,合理的税收总水平又是多少,我国税收总水平未来的发展走势又是怎样的。
鉴于此,本文的研究内容主要包括以下六个部分：
第1章,导论。简要阐述本文的选题背景及意义,对税收总水平及与之相关的概念进行界定,主要包括税收总水平、税基、税率等概念的界定和内涵的阐述。然后对国内外的相关研究成果,尤其是税收总水平影响因素及其作用机制方面的成熟结论进行综述。介绍本文研究的主要内容、研究方法和文章结构,并指出本文的主要创新和不足以及对进一步研究的建议。
第2章,税收总水平的决定。本章首先将税收总水平的影响因素分为理想税收总水平的决定因素和现实税收总水平偏离理想税收总水平的影响因素,分别进行了深入探讨。其中,理想税收总水平是指与经济发展水平相适应的税收总水平,主要是由以人均收入水平衡量的包括经济发展水平、经济结构等经济变量决定的；现实税收总水平偏离理想税收总水平的影响因素主要包括政府职能范围的大小、政府行政效率、政府收入结构以及支出结构四个方面的因素。在此基础上,文章分析了上述因素通过影响税基和税率来影响税收总水平的决定机制,并建立了理论模型。
第3章,税收总水平“S”型发展规律：理论假设与证明。本章在马国强(2008)提出的税收总水平发展趋势呈“S”型的规律,并将这一发展过程划分为三个阶段的基础上。分别利用发达国家最长100年以上的税收总水平及经济指标的时间序列数据和不同收入水平国家的税收总水平及经济指标的面板数据,对税收总水平的“S”型发展规律进行证明。结果发现,无论是从时间序列序列来看,还是从面板数据来看,税收总水平整体呈现“S”发展趋势,总体特征明显,但个别国家税收总水平的变化过程与上述假设有一定出入,这可以归结为现实税收总水平由于受到非经济因素的影响对理想税收总水平的偏离。
第4章,税收总水平“S”型发展轨迹规律：拐点的确定。本章在前文的基础上,利用三种方法对划分税收总水平三个发展阶段的两个拐点位置进行了确定。第一种方法采用发达国家的中央政府税收总水平的时间序列数据,基本包含了税收总水平S型增长轨迹的全部三个增长过程。在拐点的确定过程中,采用非参数方法比较直观的展现出了税收总水平与人均收入之间的非线性关系。第二种方法直接采用世界银行的收入分组标准,从各收入水平国家的税收总水平的截面数据及增长特征来看,利用这一标准划分的不同收入水平标准国家十分符合税收总水平在不同增长阶段的特征。第三种方法采用17个OECD国家1965－2007年的时间序列数据,利用logistic增长函数拟合的方法,精确的计算出税收总水平S型增长轨迹第2拐点的人均收入特征。在此基础上,对三种方法确定的拐点位置进行了比较,发现拐点位置特征具有较好的一致性,并据此设定了在考察税收总水平拐点的特征值时以人均收入为主要指标,以产业结构和城市人口比重为参考指标的指标体系。
第5章,税收总水平各阶段发展特征。本章在划分税收总水平不同发展阶段的基础上,利用状态空间模型和Panel Data模型分别对发达国家和不同收入水平国家税收总水平各发展阶段的速度特征进行实证检验。
第6章,税收总水平演变过程中的税收结构。本章首先阐述了税收结构的一般发展规律,在此基础上考察了不同收入水平国家税收结构特征,总结了税收收入结构随经济发展的变化规律,并以美国数据为例分析了经济因素对税收总水平决定作用的实现机制。
第7章,我国的税收总水平。本章首先回顾了我国1996年以来的税收总水平以及包含社保收入在内的税收总水平的告诉增长,分析了这一阶段我国税收总水平、各项经济指标的变化及政府收入结构,总结了我国税收总水平的发展特征,并与前文结论进行比较。对我国当前税收总水平及收入结构的合理性进行判断,并对我国税收总水平的下一步发展趋势进行了预测。
General tax level refers to the proportion of social resources a state occupied via taxation, and it is presented as the ratio of tax revenue to GDP in the corresponding period. In market economy, general tax level indicates the proportion a government has possessed in the total social resources and the role played in the whole economy. Fiscal policy is determined by economic conditions while simultaneously impacts on the economy; as a major form of fiscal revenue, tax provide a important foundation for government spending, while at the same time, general tax level also is confined by economic development and its influence on economic development. If general tax level is unreasonably high, leading to the over-occupation of social resources by the government, capital accumulation and entrepreneur spirits would be negatively impacted, hence economic development impeded; however, if general tax level is too low, government would not be well-functioned, resulting in ill-economic development as well. Therefore, a reasonable general tax level is of critical significance for a healthy and steady growth economy.
Many factors impact a country's general tax level and its growth, including level of economic development, standard of production technology, price and income allocation system and so on, with economic development and production technology as the major factors. Since production technology is embedded in the economic development, the latter is the most important factor in general tax level determination. A state's reasonable general tax level in a certain period must be in accordance with its economic development. In various economic development phases, general tax level presents different traits, which include both the numerical value of the general tax level and the velocity of the growth rate. Studying the growing trend of general tax level and the laws of its development in various economic development phases, can provide a viable standard for general tax level evaluation, and a scientific basis for the reasonable general tax level and its growth rate determination under certain economic conditions.
Since the reform of tax-sharing system in1994, China's tax revenue has witnessed a fast and steady growth, with annual growing rate over15%from1997to2010, with some particular year exceeding20%and even up to30%, which is far higher than the economic growth rate of the same period. The fast increasing of tax revenue is the constantly rise of general tax level. This long-term and rapid increase of general tax level sufficiently meets the need of government expenditure; however, what factors caused this rapid rise and whether this current growth is reasonable, and if yes, how long this growth will maintain and its negative impact on national economic development are remain unknown. All these very issues determined the fiscal policy-making of China, and particularly it is the significance of this study lies in.
Study on general tax level is for the following issues:what are the factors influencing general tax level, how (via what kind of functional mechanism), and what about the relations among these factors? What are the basis and standard for reasonable general tax level? Are there any laws or regularities in the development course of general tax level, if yes, what about the laws or regularities? Whether the current general tax level in China should be called reasonable, what about the reasonable level and the developing trend of it?
Based on all those issues, the thesis is divided into six parts:
Chaper1, introduction. In this opening chapter, the background and significance of the thesis, domestic and abroad related studies especially conclusions on influencing factors on and functional mechanism for general tax level, are introduced; main contents, research method and thesis structure are depicted, and major innovation, insufficiency and advise for further study are presented.
Chaper2, determination of general tax level. Began with the definition of general tax level and its related terms, including general tax level, tax base and tax rate, the author probed into the influencing factors for general tax level, which are classified as determinant factors for ideal general tax level and influencing factors leading to the deviation of realistic general tax level from ideal ones. Ideal general tax level refers to the level in accordance with a country's economic development, and it is measured with per capita income and is determined by the economic development, economic structure and other economic viable; major influencing factors for the deviation of realistic general tax level from its ideal one include the extent of government functions, government efficiencies, structure of government revenue and expenditure. The author analyzed the determining system in which the above influencing factors impacted the general tax level via its impact on tax base and rates, and built theoretical model based on this system.
Chapter3, the existence and verification of S-style development law of general tax level. Start with the influence of economic development on general tax level, the author depicted the S-type development of general tax level, divided the whole process of this development as three phases, and made theoretical analysis on the general tax level and traits of variation in each of the phase. Based on the very analysis, the author tested the S-type of development via time series data of general tax level and economic indicators in developed countries up to time span of a hundred years and the panel data of general tax level and economic indicators of various income-level countries. The conclusion showed that, either for time series or for panel data, the development course of general tax level generally presented a kind of S-type developing track, with few particular exceptions owing to the deviation of real general tax levels from ideal ones resulted from the non-economic factors.
Chapter4, determination of inflexion in the tract of S-style development of general tax level. Based on the foregoing discussion, the author determined the particular two inflexions which demarcated the whole development course of general tax level into three phases via three different ways. The very first way is adopted as time series data analysis, which is derived from the data of central governments in developed countries and contains almost the whole three phases of general tax level development. By non-parameter method, this particular way shows directly the non-linear relations between data of general tax level and per capita income in the process of inflexion-determination. The second method adopted income-grouping standard used by World Bank, and its conclusion showed that, form the cross-data and the growth trait of general tax levels in countries of various income levels, the general tax level in those countries are in strict confirmation with the development features in three phases as discussed in the foregoing chapter. The third way reached exactly to the trait of per capital income at the point of second inflexion via logistic growth function fitting with time series data of17OECD countries from1965-2007. Based on the three methods, the author compared the location of inflexions in each method, and found they were in good congruence; therefore, to study the eigenvalue of the horizontal inflexion, the author set up the indicator system with per capita income as the major indicator and industry structure, urban population ratio as reference indicator.
Chapter5, features of general tax level in its various developing phases. Based on the demarcation of various developing phases of general tax level, the author made a positive study on the velocity of various developing phases via state space model together with panel data model, probed into government revenue-and-expenditure structure of various phases, and made a systematic analysis based on evidence from United States.
Chapter6, structure of tax income and government revenue and expenditure. Based on the general law of development on both of the structure of tax income and structure of government revenue and expenditure, the author characterized tax income and expenditure in countries of various income levels, depicted the changes of tax-income and government-expenditure structure with economic development, and finally analyzed the exact process of this change.
Chapter7, general tax level of China. In this concluding chapter, the author reviewed all the tax system reforms since the establishment of PRC, and based on which the author took the market-economy stage as the time interval for the study on the general tax level of China since the Reform of tax-sharing system. After analyzed the variation of general tax level, various economic indexes, government income and expenditure of China, summarized the features of development of general tax level, and made a comparison of those features with conclusions made in the previous chapters, the author made a reasonable judgment on the current general tax level and the structure of revenue and expenditure, and forecasted the developing trend of general tax level in China.
税收总水平的高低及其增长速度受到各种条件的制约和影响,这些条件包括经济发展水平、生产技术水平、价格及收入分配体制等,其中最主要的是经济发展水平和生产技术水平。而生产技术水平是内含于经济发展水平之中的,所以,在税收总水平的影响因素中,经济发展水平是起决定性作用的。一国一定时期内的合理税收总水平一定是与该国当时的经济发展水平相适应的。在不同的经济发展阶段,税收总水平具有不同的特征,这种特征既包括税收总水平的数值特征,也包括税收总水平的速度特征。研究税收总水平的增长趋势,总结税收总水平在不同经济发展阶段的发展规律,可以为判断一国的税收总水平是否与经济发展水平相适应提供一个可靠的标准,也可以为估算某一经济发展水平下的合理税收总水平及增长速度提供一个科学的依据。
1994年分税制改革以来,我国的税收收入持续快速增长,1997-2010年间,我国税收收入的年增长率都在15%以上,个别年份超过了20%甚至达到了30%的增长速度,远高于同期的经济增长。税收收入的这种超经济增长的快速增加,表现在税收总水平上,就是税收总水平的不断提高。税收总水平的这种长期快速提高极大的满足了政府支出的需要,但是,这种长期快速增长是由什么原因造成的,我国当前的税收总水平及其增长特征是否是合理的,如果是合理的,会持续到什么时候,税收总水平如此快速的提高会不会对国民经济的发展产生负面影响。这些问题的解决直接影响到我国下一步财政政策的制定,这也正是本文选择税收总水平作为研究对象的现实意义所在。
研究税收总水平主要是为了解决下列问题：影响税收总水平的因素有哪些,它们是通过怎样的机制来决定税收总水平的高低的,它们之间又具有怎样的关系。合理税收总水平的判定依据是什么,标准又是什么。税收总水平的发展轨迹有没有规律可循,规律是怎样的,我国当前的税收总水平是不是合理的,合理的税收总水平又是多少,我国税收总水平未来的发展走势又是怎样的。
鉴于此,本文的研究内容主要包括以下六个部分：
第1章,导论。简要阐述本文的选题背景及意义,对税收总水平及与之相关的概念进行界定,主要包括税收总水平、税基、税率等概念的界定和内涵的阐述。然后对国内外的相关研究成果,尤其是税收总水平影响因素及其作用机制方面的成熟结论进行综述。介绍本文研究的主要内容、研究方法和文章结构,并指出本文的主要创新和不足以及对进一步研究的建议。
第2章,税收总水平的决定。本章首先将税收总水平的影响因素分为理想税收总水平的决定因素和现实税收总水平偏离理想税收总水平的影响因素,分别进行了深入探讨。其中,理想税收总水平是指与经济发展水平相适应的税收总水平,主要是由以人均收入水平衡量的包括经济发展水平、经济结构等经济变量决定的；现实税收总水平偏离理想税收总水平的影响因素主要包括政府职能范围的大小、政府行政效率、政府收入结构以及支出结构四个方面的因素。在此基础上,文章分析了上述因素通过影响税基和税率来影响税收总水平的决定机制,并建立了理论模型。
第3章,税收总水平“S”型发展规律：理论假设与证明。本章在马国强(2008)提出的税收总水平发展趋势呈“S”型的规律,并将这一发展过程划分为三个阶段的基础上。分别利用发达国家最长100年以上的税收总水平及经济指标的时间序列数据和不同收入水平国家的税收总水平及经济指标的面板数据,对税收总水平的“S”型发展规律进行证明。结果发现,无论是从时间序列序列来看,还是从面板数据来看,税收总水平整体呈现“S”发展趋势,总体特征明显,但个别国家税收总水平的变化过程与上述假设有一定出入,这可以归结为现实税收总水平由于受到非经济因素的影响对理想税收总水平的偏离。
第4章,税收总水平“S”型发展轨迹规律：拐点的确定。本章在前文的基础上,利用三种方法对划分税收总水平三个发展阶段的两个拐点位置进行了确定。第一种方法采用发达国家的中央政府税收总水平的时间序列数据,基本包含了税收总水平S型增长轨迹的全部三个增长过程。在拐点的确定过程中,采用非参数方法比较直观的展现出了税收总水平与人均收入之间的非线性关系。第二种方法直接采用世界银行的收入分组标准,从各收入水平国家的税收总水平的截面数据及增长特征来看,利用这一标准划分的不同收入水平标准国家十分符合税收总水平在不同增长阶段的特征。第三种方法采用17个OECD国家1965－2007年的时间序列数据,利用logistic增长函数拟合的方法,精确的计算出税收总水平S型增长轨迹第2拐点的人均收入特征。在此基础上,对三种方法确定的拐点位置进行了比较,发现拐点位置特征具有较好的一致性,并据此设定了在考察税收总水平拐点的特征值时以人均收入为主要指标,以产业结构和城市人口比重为参考指标的指标体系。
第5章,税收总水平各阶段发展特征。本章在划分税收总水平不同发展阶段的基础上,利用状态空间模型和Panel Data模型分别对发达国家和不同收入水平国家税收总水平各发展阶段的速度特征进行实证检验。
第6章,税收总水平演变过程中的税收结构。本章首先阐述了税收结构的一般发展规律,在此基础上考察了不同收入水平国家税收结构特征,总结了税收收入结构随经济发展的变化规律,并以美国数据为例分析了经济因素对税收总水平决定作用的实现机制。
第7章,我国的税收总水平。本章首先回顾了我国1996年以来的税收总水平以及包含社保收入在内的税收总水平的告诉增长,分析了这一阶段我国税收总水平、各项经济指标的变化及政府收入结构,总结了我国税收总水平的发展特征,并与前文结论进行比较。对我国当前税收总水平及收入结构的合理性进行判断,并对我国税收总水平的下一步发展趋势进行了预测。
General tax level refers to the proportion of social resources a state occupied via taxation, and it is presented as the ratio of tax revenue to GDP in the corresponding period. In market economy, general tax level indicates the proportion a government has possessed in the total social resources and the role played in the whole economy. Fiscal policy is determined by economic conditions while simultaneously impacts on the economy; as a major form of fiscal revenue, tax provide a important foundation for government spending, while at the same time, general tax level also is confined by economic development and its influence on economic development. If general tax level is unreasonably high, leading to the over-occupation of social resources by the government, capital accumulation and entrepreneur spirits would be negatively impacted, hence economic development impeded; however, if general tax level is too low, government would not be well-functioned, resulting in ill-economic development as well. Therefore, a reasonable general tax level is of critical significance for a healthy and steady growth economy.
Many factors impact a country's general tax level and its growth, including level of economic development, standard of production technology, price and income allocation system and so on, with economic development and production technology as the major factors. Since production technology is embedded in the economic development, the latter is the most important factor in general tax level determination. A state's reasonable general tax level in a certain period must be in accordance with its economic development. In various economic development phases, general tax level presents different traits, which include both the numerical value of the general tax level and the velocity of the growth rate. Studying the growing trend of general tax level and the laws of its development in various economic development phases, can provide a viable standard for general tax level evaluation, and a scientific basis for the reasonable general tax level and its growth rate determination under certain economic conditions.
Since the reform of tax-sharing system in1994, China's tax revenue has witnessed a fast and steady growth, with annual growing rate over15%from1997to2010, with some particular year exceeding20%and even up to30%, which is far higher than the economic growth rate of the same period. The fast increasing of tax revenue is the constantly rise of general tax level. This long-term and rapid increase of general tax level sufficiently meets the need of government expenditure; however, what factors caused this rapid rise and whether this current growth is reasonable, and if yes, how long this growth will maintain and its negative impact on national economic development are remain unknown. All these very issues determined the fiscal policy-making of China, and particularly it is the significance of this study lies in.
Study on general tax level is for the following issues:what are the factors influencing general tax level, how (via what kind of functional mechanism), and what about the relations among these factors? What are the basis and standard for reasonable general tax level? Are there any laws or regularities in the development course of general tax level, if yes, what about the laws or regularities? Whether the current general tax level in China should be called reasonable, what about the reasonable level and the developing trend of it?
Based on all those issues, the thesis is divided into six parts:
Chaper1, introduction. In this opening chapter, the background and significance of the thesis, domestic and abroad related studies especially conclusions on influencing factors on and functional mechanism for general tax level, are introduced; main contents, research method and thesis structure are depicted, and major innovation, insufficiency and advise for further study are presented.
Chaper2, determination of general tax level. Began with the definition of general tax level and its related terms, including general tax level, tax base and tax rate, the author probed into the influencing factors for general tax level, which are classified as determinant factors for ideal general tax level and influencing factors leading to the deviation of realistic general tax level from ideal ones. Ideal general tax level refers to the level in accordance with a country's economic development, and it is measured with per capita income and is determined by the economic development, economic structure and other economic viable; major influencing factors for the deviation of realistic general tax level from its ideal one include the extent of government functions, government efficiencies, structure of government revenue and expenditure. The author analyzed the determining system in which the above influencing factors impacted the general tax level via its impact on tax base and rates, and built theoretical model based on this system.
Chapter3, the existence and verification of S-style development law of general tax level. Start with the influence of economic development on general tax level, the author depicted the S-type development of general tax level, divided the whole process of this development as three phases, and made theoretical analysis on the general tax level and traits of variation in each of the phase. Based on the very analysis, the author tested the S-type of development via time series data of general tax level and economic indicators in developed countries up to time span of a hundred years and the panel data of general tax level and economic indicators of various income-level countries. The conclusion showed that, either for time series or for panel data, the development course of general tax level generally presented a kind of S-type developing track, with few particular exceptions owing to the deviation of real general tax levels from ideal ones resulted from the non-economic factors.
Chapter4, determination of inflexion in the tract of S-style development of general tax level. Based on the foregoing discussion, the author determined the particular two inflexions which demarcated the whole development course of general tax level into three phases via three different ways. The very first way is adopted as time series data analysis, which is derived from the data of central governments in developed countries and contains almost the whole three phases of general tax level development. By non-parameter method, this particular way shows directly the non-linear relations between data of general tax level and per capita income in the process of inflexion-determination. The second method adopted income-grouping standard used by World Bank, and its conclusion showed that, form the cross-data and the growth trait of general tax levels in countries of various income levels, the general tax level in those countries are in strict confirmation with the development features in three phases as discussed in the foregoing chapter. The third way reached exactly to the trait of per capital income at the point of second inflexion via logistic growth function fitting with time series data of17OECD countries from1965-2007. Based on the three methods, the author compared the location of inflexions in each method, and found they were in good congruence; therefore, to study the eigenvalue of the horizontal inflexion, the author set up the indicator system with per capita income as the major indicator and industry structure, urban population ratio as reference indicator.
Chapter5, features of general tax level in its various developing phases. Based on the demarcation of various developing phases of general tax level, the author made a positive study on the velocity of various developing phases via state space model together with panel data model, probed into government revenue-and-expenditure structure of various phases, and made a systematic analysis based on evidence from United States.
Chapter6, structure of tax income and government revenue and expenditure. Based on the general law of development on both of the structure of tax income and structure of government revenue and expenditure, the author characterized tax income and expenditure in countries of various income levels, depicted the changes of tax-income and government-expenditure structure with economic development, and finally analyzed the exact process of this change.
Chapter7, general tax level of China. In this concluding chapter, the author reviewed all the tax system reforms since the establishment of PRC, and based on which the author took the market-economy stage as the time interval for the study on the general tax level of China since the Reform of tax-sharing system. After analyzed the variation of general tax level, various economic indexes, government income and expenditure of China, summarized the features of development of general tax level, and made a comparison of those features with conclusions made in the previous chapters, the author made a reasonable judgment on the current general tax level and the structure of revenue and expenditure, and forecasted the developing trend of general tax level in China.
引文
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