大型水利工程费用/进度集成控制研究
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摘要
进度和费用是大型水利工程中两个重要的控制目标。由于在控制过程中需要共享数据，二者密切相关，因此，集成管理进度和费用为工程目标管理提供了有效工具。本文以工程项目进度/费用的集成管理为研究方向，对进度/费用的集成模型、预测以及控制等方面进行了研究。主要研究内容和成果阐述如下：
（1）通过C/SCSC模型、Sears模型、Teichloz模型、Hendrickson模型、Ibb’s和Kim’S模型进行对比分析，得出了C/SCSC模型最具优势的结论。依据C/SCSC模型提出了柔性分解结构和数据集成的概念模型。从理论上解决了集成管理的基础问题。
（2）提出了以相关度理论和贝叶斯理论为基础的费用动态预测模型，并用实例进行了验证。结果表明：考虑已完工程和未完工程的相关性，通过已完工程信息对未完工程进行预测，提高了预测精度，其最后预测费用与工程实际费用一致。
（3）由于实际工程完成情况未必完全与计划一致，本文提出了有效工期赢得值（EES）的概念，将有效工期赢得值用于工期的预测，并用实例分别将赢得值、工期赢得值、有效工期赢得值应用于工期的预测。结果表明，利用有效工期赢得值进行工期预测最切合实际，预测精度最好。
（4）针对工期管理中的“学生综合症”、“帕金森定律”等现象以及传统工期管理方法存在的问题，本文提出了关键链理论以及在项目管理中的应用。在单项目和多项目管理中，关键链技术的主要区别在于项目排序，为了解决此问题，本文提出了二元对比法。
（5）总时差的所有权是有争议的问题之一在工期索赔处理中。本文在总时差分配理论上进行了工期索赔研究，并用实例将传统工期索赔和基于总时差的工期索赔进行了对比分析。结果表明，基于总时差分配的工期索赔是比较公平和合理的。
（6）针对南水北调工程的特点，提出了信息集成框架和信息集成技术实现的概念模型；数据的录入方式会影响信息流通的有序性，本文利用信息熵对南水北调工程三种录入方式进行了研究分析，结果表明，按照项目法人录入信息流通的有序性最高；信息集成方案选择具有多目标和多准则性，本文提出了信息集成方案优选的多目标决策模型（MCGDM），并用实例进行了验证。
Cost and schedule are two of the most important management functions forlarge-scale water conservancy project. In addition, cost and schedule are closelyinterrelated, because they share a lot of common data. Therefore, integrating cost andschedule control functions provides an effective for monitoring the constructionobjects. Emphasized on integrating cost and schedule, this dissertation studiedintegrated model, performance forecast and controlling of cost and schedule. Themajor contents and achievements can be summarized as following:
(1)Though analysis the various features of C/SCSC model, Sears model,Teichloz model, Hendrickson model and Ibb’s and Kim’s model, the C/SCSC modelis more effective. This dissertation proposes flexible work breakdown structure andconceptual model of data integrated on the basis of C/SCSC and provides antheoretical tool for integrating cost and schedule.
(2)A cost estimating model is proposed on the basis of correlation theorem andBayes’ theorem and is applied to the example. The result of the example shows thatthe prediction and forecasting precision are preferable through addresses the effectsof an informed data of completed work packages on the re-estimates of incompletework packages considering the correlation of completed work packages anduncompleted work packages.
(3) Project accomplishment is not in accordance with the planned schedulefrequently. Effective earned schedule (EES) is proposed and applied to forecastingthe completion of duration. Through utilizing earned value (EV), earned schedule (ES)and effective earned schedule (EES) as the method of forecasting duration separately,the result shows that effective earned schedule (EES) is perfect.
(4) Aiming at the problem in the current in the current scheduling managementbased on classical network scheduling techniques and the phenomenon of studentsyndrome and Parkinson’s law, this paper analyzes the principles of the theory ofcritical chain and the applications in project scheduling management. The differenceof critical chain steps of single project and multi-project is the sequencing of projects.The dualism-based comparative sequential method is proposed to solve this problem.
(5) Float time ownership is one of the controversial issues in the litigation ofdelay claims. This paper studied delay claims on the basis of float time allocation using risk approach and analyzed comparatively the method of traditional delayclaims and delay claims based on float allocation. The result shows that the latter isadvisable.
(6)Aiming at the features of South to North Water Transfer Project, this paperproposed the framework of integrated information and conceptual model ofinformation integrated technology. Quality of information circulation can be affectedby the way of data input; This paper analyzed the three types of data input usinginformation entropy, and the result shows that the type of data input by the owners iseffective. Information integrated project selection problems are multi-criteriadecision-making (MCDM); This dissertation developed multi-criteria groupdecision-making model of information integrated project selection and tested it bycase.
（1）通过C/SCSC模型、Sears模型、Teichloz模型、Hendrickson模型、Ibb’s和Kim’S模型进行对比分析，得出了C/SCSC模型最具优势的结论。依据C/SCSC模型提出了柔性分解结构和数据集成的概念模型。从理论上解决了集成管理的基础问题。
（2）提出了以相关度理论和贝叶斯理论为基础的费用动态预测模型，并用实例进行了验证。结果表明：考虑已完工程和未完工程的相关性，通过已完工程信息对未完工程进行预测，提高了预测精度，其最后预测费用与工程实际费用一致。
（3）由于实际工程完成情况未必完全与计划一致，本文提出了有效工期赢得值（EES）的概念，将有效工期赢得值用于工期的预测，并用实例分别将赢得值、工期赢得值、有效工期赢得值应用于工期的预测。结果表明，利用有效工期赢得值进行工期预测最切合实际，预测精度最好。
（4）针对工期管理中的“学生综合症”、“帕金森定律”等现象以及传统工期管理方法存在的问题，本文提出了关键链理论以及在项目管理中的应用。在单项目和多项目管理中，关键链技术的主要区别在于项目排序，为了解决此问题，本文提出了二元对比法。
（5）总时差的所有权是有争议的问题之一在工期索赔处理中。本文在总时差分配理论上进行了工期索赔研究，并用实例将传统工期索赔和基于总时差的工期索赔进行了对比分析。结果表明，基于总时差分配的工期索赔是比较公平和合理的。
（6）针对南水北调工程的特点，提出了信息集成框架和信息集成技术实现的概念模型；数据的录入方式会影响信息流通的有序性，本文利用信息熵对南水北调工程三种录入方式进行了研究分析，结果表明，按照项目法人录入信息流通的有序性最高；信息集成方案选择具有多目标和多准则性，本文提出了信息集成方案优选的多目标决策模型（MCGDM），并用实例进行了验证。
Cost and schedule are two of the most important management functions forlarge-scale water conservancy project. In addition, cost and schedule are closelyinterrelated, because they share a lot of common data. Therefore, integrating cost andschedule control functions provides an effective for monitoring the constructionobjects. Emphasized on integrating cost and schedule, this dissertation studiedintegrated model, performance forecast and controlling of cost and schedule. Themajor contents and achievements can be summarized as following:
(1)Though analysis the various features of C/SCSC model, Sears model,Teichloz model, Hendrickson model and Ibb’s and Kim’s model, the C/SCSC modelis more effective. This dissertation proposes flexible work breakdown structure andconceptual model of data integrated on the basis of C/SCSC and provides antheoretical tool for integrating cost and schedule.
(2)A cost estimating model is proposed on the basis of correlation theorem andBayes’ theorem and is applied to the example. The result of the example shows thatthe prediction and forecasting precision are preferable through addresses the effectsof an informed data of completed work packages on the re-estimates of incompletework packages considering the correlation of completed work packages anduncompleted work packages.
(3) Project accomplishment is not in accordance with the planned schedulefrequently. Effective earned schedule (EES) is proposed and applied to forecastingthe completion of duration. Through utilizing earned value (EV), earned schedule (ES)and effective earned schedule (EES) as the method of forecasting duration separately,the result shows that effective earned schedule (EES) is perfect.
(4) Aiming at the problem in the current in the current scheduling managementbased on classical network scheduling techniques and the phenomenon of studentsyndrome and Parkinson’s law, this paper analyzes the principles of the theory ofcritical chain and the applications in project scheduling management. The differenceof critical chain steps of single project and multi-project is the sequencing of projects.The dualism-based comparative sequential method is proposed to solve this problem.
(5) Float time ownership is one of the controversial issues in the litigation ofdelay claims. This paper studied delay claims on the basis of float time allocation using risk approach and analyzed comparatively the method of traditional delayclaims and delay claims based on float allocation. The result shows that the latter isadvisable.
(6)Aiming at the features of South to North Water Transfer Project, this paperproposed the framework of integrated information and conceptual model ofinformation integrated technology. Quality of information circulation can be affectedby the way of data input; This paper analyzed the three types of data input usinginformation entropy, and the result shows that the type of data input by the owners iseffective. Information integrated project selection problems are multi-criteriadecision-making (MCDM); This dissertation developed multi-criteria groupdecision-making model of information integrated project selection and tested it bycase.
引文
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