我国土地价格的形成机理及其与房地产价格的关联性研究
|
摘要
自2002年我国土地供给制度实施市场化改革以来,尽管其一方面极大地控制了土地供应量、优化了土地资源的配置,但另一方面也导致了土地价格的急剧上升,与此同时,房地产价格也在快速上涨。于是,关于“招拍挂”的土地供给制度是否导致房地产价格的快速上涨成了社会各界关注的焦点和热点问题。因此,弄清土地价格对房地产价格的作用机制及二者之间的关联性,不仅有助于分析和评价现有调控政策的有效性和合理性、正确判断房地产价格快速上涨的真实原因,同时也能为进一步制订房地产市场的宏观调控政策、保证房地产市场健康平稳运行提供重要的借鉴意义。而本文的研究也正着眼于此。于是,本文首先以我国各地区房地产市场发展的不平衡性为基本出发点,在对各地区房地产市场进行聚类分析的基础上,应用面板数据的单位根检验和协整理论来实证研究不同地区土地价格对房地产价格的长期作用关系和短期波动效应,旨在揭示土地价格对房地产价格影响的区域性差异；其次,在理论上探析土地价格与房地产价格之间的传导机制后,运用基于误差修正模型的长短期Granger因果关系检验来定量揭示我国土地制度转轨以来土地价格和房地产价格之间的传导效应：再次,针对我国土地市场化改革以来房地产价格和土地价格的变化及波动特征,在对房地产价格和土地价格进行结构突变检验并对房地产市场和土地市场的发展进行阶段性划分的基础上,应用变结构的协整分析来进一步揭示我国土地价格对房地产价格影响的动态性和阶段性特征；最后,针对现阶段我国土地价格对房地产价格影响的区域性、因果性和阶段性特征,运用面板数据模型分阶段系统地对土地价格的形成机理及其演变特征进行实证研究,以期更好地阐释土地价格对房地产价格的作用机制。
Since the marketilization reform of China's real estate of 1998, the real estate market has got rapidly developed, and the industry of real estate has also made important contribution to pull China's economic growth and improve the urban residents'life quality, becoming the pillar industry of national economy. However, the problem of over-investment, the single financing channel and structural imbalance of supply & demand, especially the rapidly increasing housing price, has seriously threaten the stable development of China's real estate market following with the flourish of real estate industry. Therefore, the authority has issued a series of macro-control policy to stabilize the housing price, but little effect. At the same time, the rapidly increasing housing price has also made the land demand increasing, but under the land supply system of administrative allocation and assignment agreement, the lack of scientific land regulatory system and rational market competition mechanism has made the bad behavior widespread such as black-box operation of land transaction and rent-seeking behavior of some local government officials, and the opaque land transaction process and the irregular market order have directly led to the loss and waste of land resource, the allocation and utilization efficiency of land resource was extremely low. Thus, the Ministry of Land and Resources and the Ministry of Supervision & the Ministry of Land and Resources issued the "11th Order" and "71st Order" one after the other, the aim is to make the land supply system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" replace the traditional system of administrative allocation and assignment agreement, which indicated that China comprehensively carried out the marketilization reform of land supply system.
But, the direct consequence of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" was that the land price increased sharply. So, the people had to think about whether the increasing land price led to the increasing the housing price when they thought over the reason of rapidly increasing housing price. Even doubted that whether the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" led to the increasing the housing price. So, the problem of the relationship between land and housing price had become the focus. Therefore, the research on the relevance of land price and housing price and the effect mechanism of land price on housing price not only to contribute to identify the true reason of rapidly increasing land price and housing price, but also to contribute to evaluate the effectiveness and rationality of current policy, moreover, it also can provide some references to perfect and set up macro-control policy of real estate market as well as guarantee the stable development of real estate market.
But, we can easily discover that the debate focus of land price and housing price is whether the increasing land price led to the increasing housing price or whether the increasing housing price led to the increasing land price by comparative analysis, lack of rationality. This paper deems that the foundation of the relationship between land price and housing price is to identify the land price is whether exceed its true price level firstly, only in this way, we can exactly reveal the internal mechanism of the increasing land price and the increasing housing price. Secondly, due to the difference of economic development level and real estate market development degree, for different regions, there should be a significant difference in the characteristic of supply and demand of land market and real estate market, so we must fully think of the regional difference. Thirdly, the development of real estate market need experience a developing process, then, studying the relationship between land price and the housing price should be in accordance with the special developing stage, the special land supply policy and the difference of development status of real estate. In view of this, this paper will make a further study.
Specifically, this paper makes a cluster analysis of China's regions according to the developing degree of real estate market firstly. On this basis, we use the annual data of housing price and land price from 2002 to 2008, apply panel cointegration and panel vector error correction model to study the long-term equilibrium mechanism and short-term fluctuation characteristic of the land price on housing price in different regions, reveal regional difference of the effect mechanism of the land price on housing price deeply. The empirical study result shows that in the regions of high economic development level and real estate developing degree, there was no influence of land price on housing price whether long-term or short-term; in the regions of under-developed economic development level and real estate developing degree, the land price boost the housing price significantly no matter in long-term or in short-term, and the effect degree decreased with the increasing economic development level and real estate developing degree. The conclusion indicates that the effect degree of land price on housing price will decrease following with the increasing of economic development level and urban residents' income level, the increasing of the real estate developers'profit and the increasing of the demand of investment and speculation. So, the related departments and local government should fully consider the principle of the actions that suit local circumstance in drawing up land policy and legislation.
Secondly, after the theoretical analysis of the transmission mechanism between the land price and housing price, this paper uses the seasonal data of land price and housing price from 2002 to 2008, applies cointegration analysis, vector error correction model and Granger causality test based on vector error correction model to reveal the interaction mechanism and transmission effect of land price and housing price in both long-term and short-term since the transition of land system. The result shows that there existed interaction causality between land price and housing price in short-term, but in the long-term, there was only single causality of land price to housing price. This conclusion indicates that in the short-term, on the one hand, duo to the relatively stable cost and the consumer purchasing power cannot be expanded rapidly in short-term, so, the increasing land price will lead to the increasing cost of real estate, then the real estate developer will pass on it to the consumers by housing price to compensate the increasing cost; on the other hand, due to lack of supply elasticity, the increasing housing price will lead to the increasing land demand and further exacerbate the land price increased. In the long-term, the increasing land price should be the return of its true price by the introduction of competition mechanism in the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing", but not the reason of the increasing housing price, it is only experiencing a return process of true price.
Thirdly, in accordance with the different development stages of real estate market and land market, this paper uses the structural change theory divide the stages of real estate market and land market firstly, then on this basis, applies cointegration analysis based on structural change to study the effect mechanism of land price on housing price for current China deeply, the aim is to reveal the dynamic and stage effect characteristic of land price on housing price. The empirical study result shows that at the early stage of land supply system marketilization reform, the land supply system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" brought a certain impact to housing price, and the impact degree become stronger and stronger following with the depth of transition of land system and the return of the land's true price step by step. But, with the rapid increase in the level of economic development recently, especially the increase of urban residents' income level and the increase of the demand of investment and speculation had extremely pulled the housing price increasing rapidly, so it reduced the effect of land price on housing price.
According to the conclusion above, the increase of land price led by the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" was only the return process of the land's true price, so studying the formation mechanism of land price and its evolution characteristic since land system transition can not only reveal the regional, causal and stage characteristic of the effect of land price on housing price, but also provide some certain real references for perfecting land price mechanism, promoting land resource rational allocation and fully playing the role of price leverage.
So, at last, this paper has studied the formation mechanism of land price and its evolution characteristic deeply. We make the theoretical analysis of the equilibrium of land market in both long-term and short-term and the determinant of equilibrium price by using modern western economic theory at first, and card and summarize the affection factors on land price. On this basis, we use related annual data of China's land price, economic development and real estate development from 2002 to 2008, apply panel data model to reveal the formation mechanism of land price and its evolution characteristic deeply. The empirical study result shows that the effect of population factor and urbanization level on land price is gradually disappeared following with the stability of population growth speed, perfection of city planning, promotion of economic development level and maturity of real estate developing degree. And the effect degree of housing price on land price is gradually weakened, but the promotion of economic development level has become the decisive factor of land price in current China. This conclusion has also revealed the effect mechanism of land price on housing price. At the early stage of real estate market development or in undeveloped regions, due to constriction of economic development level, land cost is an important component of housing price, but following with the promotion of economic development level or in developed regions, on the one hand, it pulled the land price and housing price increasing rapidly, and on the other hand, it also reduced the effect of land price on housing price, becoming the determinant of land price and housing price.
So, according to the conclusions of this paper, we can summarize that the land supply system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" is not the determinant of the increasing housing price. Especially in recently, with the perfection of the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing", the effect of land price on housing price has been disappeared. Therefore, we cannot blame the rapidly increasing housing price to the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" and the increase of land price. On the contrary, the increase of land price led by the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" was only the return process of the land's true price, and at the same time, the pulling effect of housing price on land price is gradually weakened. Actually, the real reason which leading to the high land price and housing price is the rapidly growing economic development level, the increase of urban residents' income, the gradual increase of investment and speculation demand and the higher excess profits of real estate developer.
Since the marketilization reform of China's real estate of 1998, the real estate market has got rapidly developed, and the industry of real estate has also made important contribution to pull China's economic growth and improve the urban residents'life quality, becoming the pillar industry of national economy. However, the problem of over-investment, the single financing channel and structural imbalance of supply & demand, especially the rapidly increasing housing price, has seriously threaten the stable development of China's real estate market following with the flourish of real estate industry. Therefore, the authority has issued a series of macro-control policy to stabilize the housing price, but little effect. At the same time, the rapidly increasing housing price has also made the land demand increasing, but under the land supply system of administrative allocation and assignment agreement, the lack of scientific land regulatory system and rational market competition mechanism has made the bad behavior widespread such as black-box operation of land transaction and rent-seeking behavior of some local government officials, and the opaque land transaction process and the irregular market order have directly led to the loss and waste of land resource, the allocation and utilization efficiency of land resource was extremely low. Thus, the Ministry of Land and Resources and the Ministry of Supervision & the Ministry of Land and Resources issued the "11th Order" and "71st Order" one after the other, the aim is to make the land supply system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" replace the traditional system of administrative allocation and assignment agreement, which indicated that China comprehensively carried out the marketilization reform of land supply system.
But, the direct consequence of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" was that the land price increased sharply. So, the people had to think about whether the increasing land price led to the increasing the housing price when they thought over the reason of rapidly increasing housing price. Even doubted that whether the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" led to the increasing the housing price. So, the problem of the relationship between land and housing price had become the focus. Therefore, the research on the relevance of land price and housing price and the effect mechanism of land price on housing price not only to contribute to identify the true reason of rapidly increasing land price and housing price, but also to contribute to evaluate the effectiveness and rationality of current policy, moreover, it also can provide some references to perfect and set up macro-control policy of real estate market as well as guarantee the stable development of real estate market.
But, we can easily discover that the debate focus of land price and housing price is whether the increasing land price led to the increasing housing price or whether the increasing housing price led to the increasing land price by comparative analysis, lack of rationality. This paper deems that the foundation of the relationship between land price and housing price is to identify the land price is whether exceed its true price level firstly, only in this way, we can exactly reveal the internal mechanism of the increasing land price and the increasing housing price. Secondly, due to the difference of economic development level and real estate market development degree, for different regions, there should be a significant difference in the characteristic of supply and demand of land market and real estate market, so we must fully think of the regional difference. Thirdly, the development of real estate market need experience a developing process, then, studying the relationship between land price and the housing price should be in accordance with the special developing stage, the special land supply policy and the difference of development status of real estate. In view of this, this paper will make a further study.
Specifically, this paper makes a cluster analysis of China's regions according to the developing degree of real estate market firstly. On this basis, we use the annual data of housing price and land price from 2002 to 2008, apply panel cointegration and panel vector error correction model to study the long-term equilibrium mechanism and short-term fluctuation characteristic of the land price on housing price in different regions, reveal regional difference of the effect mechanism of the land price on housing price deeply. The empirical study result shows that in the regions of high economic development level and real estate developing degree, there was no influence of land price on housing price whether long-term or short-term; in the regions of under-developed economic development level and real estate developing degree, the land price boost the housing price significantly no matter in long-term or in short-term, and the effect degree decreased with the increasing economic development level and real estate developing degree. The conclusion indicates that the effect degree of land price on housing price will decrease following with the increasing of economic development level and urban residents' income level, the increasing of the real estate developers'profit and the increasing of the demand of investment and speculation. So, the related departments and local government should fully consider the principle of the actions that suit local circumstance in drawing up land policy and legislation.
Secondly, after the theoretical analysis of the transmission mechanism between the land price and housing price, this paper uses the seasonal data of land price and housing price from 2002 to 2008, applies cointegration analysis, vector error correction model and Granger causality test based on vector error correction model to reveal the interaction mechanism and transmission effect of land price and housing price in both long-term and short-term since the transition of land system. The result shows that there existed interaction causality between land price and housing price in short-term, but in the long-term, there was only single causality of land price to housing price. This conclusion indicates that in the short-term, on the one hand, duo to the relatively stable cost and the consumer purchasing power cannot be expanded rapidly in short-term, so, the increasing land price will lead to the increasing cost of real estate, then the real estate developer will pass on it to the consumers by housing price to compensate the increasing cost; on the other hand, due to lack of supply elasticity, the increasing housing price will lead to the increasing land demand and further exacerbate the land price increased. In the long-term, the increasing land price should be the return of its true price by the introduction of competition mechanism in the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing", but not the reason of the increasing housing price, it is only experiencing a return process of true price.
Thirdly, in accordance with the different development stages of real estate market and land market, this paper uses the structural change theory divide the stages of real estate market and land market firstly, then on this basis, applies cointegration analysis based on structural change to study the effect mechanism of land price on housing price for current China deeply, the aim is to reveal the dynamic and stage effect characteristic of land price on housing price. The empirical study result shows that at the early stage of land supply system marketilization reform, the land supply system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" brought a certain impact to housing price, and the impact degree become stronger and stronger following with the depth of transition of land system and the return of the land's true price step by step. But, with the rapid increase in the level of economic development recently, especially the increase of urban residents' income level and the increase of the demand of investment and speculation had extremely pulled the housing price increasing rapidly, so it reduced the effect of land price on housing price.
According to the conclusion above, the increase of land price led by the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" was only the return process of the land's true price, so studying the formation mechanism of land price and its evolution characteristic since land system transition can not only reveal the regional, causal and stage characteristic of the effect of land price on housing price, but also provide some certain real references for perfecting land price mechanism, promoting land resource rational allocation and fully playing the role of price leverage.
So, at last, this paper has studied the formation mechanism of land price and its evolution characteristic deeply. We make the theoretical analysis of the equilibrium of land market in both long-term and short-term and the determinant of equilibrium price by using modern western economic theory at first, and card and summarize the affection factors on land price. On this basis, we use related annual data of China's land price, economic development and real estate development from 2002 to 2008, apply panel data model to reveal the formation mechanism of land price and its evolution characteristic deeply. The empirical study result shows that the effect of population factor and urbanization level on land price is gradually disappeared following with the stability of population growth speed, perfection of city planning, promotion of economic development level and maturity of real estate developing degree. And the effect degree of housing price on land price is gradually weakened, but the promotion of economic development level has become the decisive factor of land price in current China. This conclusion has also revealed the effect mechanism of land price on housing price. At the early stage of real estate market development or in undeveloped regions, due to constriction of economic development level, land cost is an important component of housing price, but following with the promotion of economic development level or in developed regions, on the one hand, it pulled the land price and housing price increasing rapidly, and on the other hand, it also reduced the effect of land price on housing price, becoming the determinant of land price and housing price.
So, according to the conclusions of this paper, we can summarize that the land supply system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" is not the determinant of the increasing housing price. Especially in recently, with the perfection of the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing", the effect of land price on housing price has been disappeared. Therefore, we cannot blame the rapidly increasing housing price to the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" and the increase of land price. On the contrary, the increase of land price led by the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" was only the return process of the land's true price, and at the same time, the pulling effect of housing price on land price is gradually weakened. Actually, the real reason which leading to the high land price and housing price is the rapidly growing economic development level, the increase of urban residents' income, the gradual increase of investment and speculation demand and the higher excess profits of real estate developer.
引文
[1]白仲林.面板数据的计量经济分析[M].天津：南开大学出版社,2008.
[2]包宗华.怎样看待我国的住房价格[J].中国房地产,2004(1)：18-19.
[3]毕宝德,柴强,李玲,等.土地经济学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1998.
[4]曹建海.中国城市土地高效利用研究[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2002.
[5]陈淮,赵露兴.房价谁说了算?——土地与金融制度变革中的中国房地产[M].南昌：江西人民陈版社,2005.
[6]方毅,赵石磊.房屋销售价格和租赁价格的关系研究[J].数理统计与管理,2007,26(6)：951-957.
[7]方毅,赵杨,高丹.中国房价与地价的关系研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2009(6)：83-88.
[8]冯邦彦,刘明.中国房价与地价关系的实证研究[J].统计与决策,2006(4)：4-6.
[9]高波,毛丰付.房价与地价关系的实证检验：1999-2002[J].产业经济研究,2003(3)：19-24.
[10]高波.加入WTO：我国房地产业的市场机会、竞争趋势与应对策略[J].管理世界,2000(5)：96-100.
[11]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模——Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.
[12]郭建平,何建敏.我国经济增长与利用外资的变结构协整分析[J].数理统计与管理,2007(2)：273-278.
[13]郭祎达,张涵.房价与地价实证研究——以较大规模城市为例[J].市场研究,2009(8)：28-30.
[14]何芳.城市土地经济与利用[M].上海：同济大学出版社,2004.
[15]何虹.城市地价高涨及地价稳定措施研究[D].上海：华东师范大学商学院,2006.
[16]黄桐城,黄碧云.城市土地经济学[M].上海：上海交通大学出版社,1998.
[17]季朗超.非均衡的房地产市场[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2004.
[18]蒋黎晅.房地产经济学[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2006.
[19]金三林.我国房价收入比的社会差距与住房政策体系的基本构想[J].经济研究参考,2007(62)：16-21.
[20]竞翔.城市土地价格的构成及影响因素分析[J].价格月刊,1994(1)：15-16.
[21]况伟大.房价与地价关系研究：模型及中国数据检验[J].财贸经济,2005(11)：56-64.
[22]雷永泰,李立新.土地出让方式对房地产价格的影响研究[J].经济研究,2007(2)：88-89.
[23]李嘉图.政治经济学及赋税原理[M].北京：商务印书馆,1962.
[24]李木祥.中国房地产泡沫研究[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2007.
[25]李珍贵.实证研究表明：房上涨带动地价升高[J].国土资源,2005(9)：58-60.
[26]李正全.发达国家政府干预房地产市场的政策、演变趋势及其借鉴意义[J].世界经济研究,2005(5)：63-72.
[27]李子奈,叶阿忠.高等计量经济学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2000.
[28]梁云芳,高铁梅,贺书平.房地产市场与国民经济协调发展的实证分析[J].中国社会科学,2006(3)：74-84.
[29]梁云芳,高铁梅.我国商品住宅销售价格波动成因的实证分析[J].管理世界,2006(8)：76-82.
[30]梁云芳,高铁梅.中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析[J].经济研究,2007(8)：133-142.
[31]梁云芳.我国经济转轨时期房地产增长周期波动——特征、成因和结构变化的计量分析[D].大连：东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,2007.
[32]刘洪玉,沈悦.房地产价格变化规律的经济学分析[J].建筑经济,2004(9)：43-47.
[33]刘洪玉,张红.房地产业与社会经济[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.
[34]刘金平,魏启福,刘亚坪,等.土地整理与城镇地价[M].徐州：中国矿业大学出版社,2001.
[35]刘立民.房地产价格的形成与决定——兼议北京房价为何居高不下[J].城乡建设,2002(5)：24-25.
[36]刘琳,刘洪玉.地价与房价关系的经济学分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003(7)：27-30.
[37]刘润秋,蒋永穆.论房价决定地价——兼论当前房地产宏观调控政策[J].社会科学研究,2005(6)：44-48.
[38]龙开胜,陈利根,李凤.理性认识和处理地价与房价关系之争[J].中国物价,2005(12)：64-66.
[39]龙开胜,李凤.跳出地价陷阱理性认识地价与房价关系之事[J].资源与人居环境,2006(1)：25-26.
[40]吕萍,周淘.土地城市化与价格机制研究[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[41]栾惠德,张晓峒.协整还是协变：来自中国进出口时间序列的经验证据(1950-2004)[J].南开经济研究,2007(2)：140-152.
[42]苗启虎,王方华.房价地价上涨：孰因孰果?[J].价格理论与实践,2004(12)：47-48.
[43]平新乔,陈敏彦.融资、地价与楼盘价格趋势[J].世界经济,2004(7):3-10.
[44]阮家福.中外土地税收制度的比较与借鉴[J].宏观经济研究,2009(9)：75-79.
[45]邵军,徐康宁.基于面板数据协整方法的外资与外贸关系研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(10)：91-99.
[46]沈久沄.对房价收入比科学涵义的再探讨[J].中央财经大学学报,2006(6)：75-79.
[47]沈悦,刘洪玉.住宅价格与经济基本面：1995——2002年中国14城市的实证研究[J].经济研究,2004(6)：78-86.
[48]沈悦.房地产价格与宏观经济的关系研究[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社：知识产权出版社,2006.
[49]宋勃,高波.利率冲击与房地产价格波动的理论与实证分析：1998-2006[J].经济评论,2007(4)：46-56.
[50]宋勃,刘建江.房价与地价关系的理论分析与中国经验的实证检验：1978-2007[J].中央财经大学学报,2009(9)：60-66.
[51]苏良军,何一峰,金赛男.中国城乡居民消费与收入关系的面板数据协整研究[J].世界经济,2006(5)：65-72.
[52]孙巍,李何,何彬,等.现阶段电信业市场结构与价格竞争行为关系的实证研究[J].中国工业经济,2008(4)：73-81.
[53]孙巍,李何,李佳.收入差距、房价及利率政策对消费行为的影响[J].黑龙江社会科学,2008(6)：81-83.
[54]孙巍,李菁,王鹏.我国省际产业集聚与经济收敛性特征及其相互关系的经验研究[J].税务与经济,2008(5)：1-7.
[55]孙巍,王文成,李何.基于PI-LC理论的现阶段居民消费行为研究[J].中国软科学,2008(10)：148-160.
[56]唐焱.区域经济一体化背景下城市土地价格影响因素的理论与实证研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2006(5)：47-55.
[57]汪涛,饶海斌,王丽娟.Panel Data单位根和协整分析[J].统计研究,2002(5)：53-57.
[58]王鹏,李菁.开征物业税对我国房地产市场的影响分析[J].税务与经济,2010(1)：92-94.
[59]王鹏,张雁东.完善我国房地产税计税依据的几点建议[J].当代经济研究,2009(12)：69-70.
[60]王少平,李子奈.结构突变与人民币汇率的经验分析[J].世界经济,2003(8)：22-27.
[61]王少平,杨继生.中国工业能源调整的长期战略与短期措施——基于12个主要工业行业能源需求的综列协整分析[J].中国社会科学,2006(4)：88-96.
[62]王少平.短期因果关系检验及其对湖北经济的实证[J].湖北经济学院学报,2007,1(6)：41-45.
[63]王文成.我国房地产价格演化机理及其相关调控政策的计量分析[D].长春：吉林大学大学商学院,2008.
[64]王岳龙,张瑜.基于中国省级面板数据的房价与地价关系研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2010(1)：50-57.
[65]望晓东.中国房地产泡沫问题研究[D].武汉：华中师范大学经济学院,2005.
[66]魏巍贤,李阳.我国房地产需求的地区差异分析[J].统计研究,2005(9)：56-60.
[67]吴巧生,陈亮,张炎涛,等.中国能源消费与GDP关系的再检验——基于省际面板数据的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(6)：27-40.
[68]夏明文.土地与经济发展：理论分析与中国实证[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2000.
[69]徐滇庆.房价与泡沫经济[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2006.
[70]徐燕.北京市房价过高的原因和房价控制[J].城市问题,2002(1)：42-44.
[71]严金海.中国的房价与地价：理论、实证和政策分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(1)：17-26.
[72]杨宝臣,张世英.变结构协整问题研究[J].系统工程学报,2002,17(1)：26-31.
[73]杨继瑞.影响城市地价的因素体系探析[J].城市规划汇刊,1994(5)：14-20.
[74]杨继瑞.中国城市地价探析[M].北京：高等教育出版社,1997.
[75]杨慎.客观看待房价上涨问题[J].中国房地信息,2003(2)：4-5.
[76]杨勇,温修春.开征物业税对房地产价格的影响[J].中国物价,2005(5)：55-61.
[77]野口悠纪雄.土地经济学[M].北京：商务印书馆,1997.
[78]叶剑平,谢经荣.房地产业与社会经济协调发展研究[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[79]于秀林,任雪松.多元统计分析[M].北京：中国统计出版社,1999.
[80]余华义,陈东.中国地价、利率与房价的关联性研究[J].经济评论,2005(4)：41-49.
[81]原鹏飞.房地产价格波动对宏观经济影响的一般均衡分析[M].长春：厦门大学经济学院,2009.
[82]张红.房地产经济学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2005.
[83]张文新,蒋立红.国外地价与房价关系及其启示[J].中国土地科学,2004,18(3)：50-54.
[84]张晓峒.Eviews使用指南与案例[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2007.
[85]张屹山,赵杨.中国房屋销售价格、土地价格和租赁价格的关系研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2010(1)：74-83.
[86]张兆响,廖先玲,王晓松.中国煤炭消费与经济增长的变结构协整分析[J].资源科学,2008(9)：1282-1289.
[87]赵贺.中国城市土地利用机制研究[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2004.
[88]郑娟尔,吴次芳.地价与房价的因果关系——全国和城市层面的计量研究[J].中国土地科学,2006(6)：31-37.
[89]钟汉明.卓有成效的新加坡住房制度[J].东南亚研究,1994(4-5)：26-27.
[90]周刚华.城市土地价格的微观影响因素及其实证研究[D].杭州：浙江大学管理学院,2006.
[91]周京奎.城市土地价格的波动对房地产业的影响：1999～2005年中国20城市的实证分析[J].当代经济科学,2006(4)：1-7.
[92]周京奎.金融支持过度与房地产泡沫——理论与实证研究[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2005.
[93]周永宏.当前我国房价与租金关系的经济学分析——个市场区隔理论的解释[J].当代财经,2005(10)：13-16.
[94]朱道林,董玛力.地价和房价的经济学分析[J].中国土地,2005(7)：20-21.
[95]Abuaf N, Jorion P. Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run[J]. The Journal of Finance,1990,
45(1):157-174.
[96]Alonso W. Locations and Land Use[M]. Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press,1964.
[97]Alyousha A., Tsoukis C. Ricardian Causal Ordering and the Relation between House and Land Prices:Evidence from England[J]. Applied Economic Letters,1998,5:325-328.
[98]Aoki K., Proudman J., Vlieghe G. House Prices, Consumption, and Monetary Policy:a Financial Accelerator Approach[J]. Journal of Financial Intermediation,2004,4:414-435.
[99]Arrondel, Luc and Lefevre, Bruno. Consumption and Investment Motives in Housing Wealth Accumulation:A French Study[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2001,50:112-137.
[100]Atash, Farhad. Local Land Use Regulations in the USA:A Study of Their Impacts on Housing Cost[J]. Land Use Policy,1999,7(5):231-242.
[101]Baffoe-Bonnie, J. The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of House:A National and Regional Analysis[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,1998,17(2):179-197.
[102]Banerjee A, Lumsdaine R L, Stock J H. Recursive and Sequential of the Tests of Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses:Theory and International Evidence[J]. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,1992,10(3):271-287.
[103]Barot B., Yang Z. House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the United Kingdom-Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-1998[J]. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies (RURDS),2002,14(2):189-216.
[104]Bover O., Muellbauer J., Murphy A. Housing, Wages and UK Labor Market[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1989,51:97-136.
[105]Bramley G. The Impact of Land use Planning and Tax Subsides on the Supply and Price of Housing in Britain[J]. Urban Studies,1993,30(1):5-30.
[106]Bramley, Glen. Land Use Planning and the Housing Market in Britain:the Impact on House Building and House Prices[J]. Environment and Planning,1999,25(6):1021-1051.
[107]Breitung J. A Parametric Approach to the Estimation of Cointegration Vectors in Panel Data[C].10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin July 5-6,2002.
[108]Breitung J. The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data[J]. Advances in Econometrics,2000,15:161-177.
[109]Brown J.N., H.S. Rosen. On the Estimation of Structural Hedonic Price Models[J]. Econometrica,1982,50(3):765-768.
[110]Bruckner J K. A Modern Analysis of the Effects of Site Value Taxation[J]. National Tax Journal,1986,39(1):49-58.
[111]Case B., William N. Goetzmann, K. Geert Rouwenhorst, Global Real Eatate Markets Cycles and Fundamentals[R]. NBER Working Paper, No.7566,2000.
[112]Case K.E., Shiller R.J. Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market[J]. AREUEA Journal,1990,18(3):253-273.
[113]Chang S. Examination of Land Use Policies, Household Income and Price of Small Residential Units in Hong Kong(1985-1995)[D]. Master Thesis of HKU,1996,10:72-78.
[114]Chen M C, Patel K. House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality:An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market[J]. Journal of Asian Real Estate Society,1998,1(1):101.
[115]Cheshire P., Sheppard S. British Planning Policy and Access to Housing:Some Empirical Estimates[J]. Urban Studies,1999,26:469-485.
[116]Chien-Chiang Lee, Chun-Ping Chang. Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Asian Economics:A More Comprehensive Analysis Using Panel Data[J]. Resource and Energy Economics,2008,30:50-65.
[117]Choi I. Unit Root Tests for Panel Data[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,2001, 20(2):249-272.
[118]Clapp J.M., Giaccotto C. The Influence of Economic Variables on Local House Price Dynamics[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1994,36(1):161-183.
[119]Collyns, Charles, Abdelhak Senhadji. Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis[J]. IMF Working Paper,2000.
[120]Dag H., E. Naug. What Drive House Price? [J]. Economic Bulletin,2005,1:29-41.
[121]Dan Ben-David, D H Papell. The Great Wars, the Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Some New Evidence about an Old Stylized Fact[R]. NBER Working Paper, No.4752,1994.
[122]Davies G W. A Model of the Urban Residential Land and Housing Market[J]. The Canadian Journal of Economics,1977,10(3):393-410.
[123]Dicks M J. A Simple Model of the Housing Market[R]. London:Bank of England,1990.
[124]Diparsquel D. Why Don't We Know more about Housing Supply?[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economic Base,1996,11(1):31-37.
[125]Engelhardt, Gary. Housing Prices and the Decision to Save for Down Payments[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1994,36(2):209-237.
[126]Engle R F, Granger C W J. Co-integration and Error Correction:Representation, Estimation, and Testing[J]. Econometrica,1987,55(2):251-276.
[127]Englund P., Iounnides Y.M. House Price Dynamics:An International Empirical Perspective[J]. Journal of Housing Economics,1997,6:119-136.
[128]Euijune Kim, Jaeuk Ju. Growth and Distributional Impact of Urban Housing Supply:An Application of Urban Land Use and A CGE Model for Seoul[J]. Rurds,2003,15:66-81.
[129]Evans A. Economics, Real Estate and the Supply of Land[M]. Oxford:Blackwell Publishing, 2004.
[130]Evans A. Housing Prices and Land Prices in the South East-A Review[M]. London:The House Builders Federation,1987.
[131]French, K., J. Poterba. Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets[J]. American Economic Review,1991,81(2):222-226.
[132]Geoff Kenny. Modeling the Demand and Supply Side of the Housing Market:Evidence from Ireland[J]. Economic Modeling,1999,16:389-409.
[133]Gillen M., Fisher P. Residential Developer Behavior in Land Price Determination[J]. Journal of Property Research,2002,19(1):39-59.
[134]Glaeser E, Gyourko J, C Hilber. Housing Affordability and Land Prices:Is There a Crisis in American Cities[R]. NBER Working Paper, No.8835,2002.
[135]Golland A., Boelhouwer P. Speculative Housing Supply, Land and Housing Markets:A Comparison[J]. Journal of Property Research,2002,19(3):231-251.
[136]Gregory A W, Hansen B E. Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1996,70(1):99-126.
[137]Groen J J, F Kleibergen. Likelihood-based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error-Correction Models[J]. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,2003,21:295-318.
[138]Hadri K. Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data[J]. Econometrics Journal,
2000,3(2):148-161.
[139]Haibin Zhu. What Drives Housing Price Dynamics:Cross-Country Evidence[J]. BIS Quarterly Review,2004,5:65-78.
[140]Hannah L, Kim K H, Mills E S. Land Use Controls and House Prices in Korea[J]. Urban Studies,1993,30:147-156.
[141]Hausman J, Tardiff T, Belinfante A. The Effects of the Breakup of AT&T on Telephone Penetration in the United States[J]. The American Economic Review,1993,83(2):178-184.
[142]Henderson, V. J. and Ioannides, M.Y. A Model of Housing Tenure Choice[J]. The American Economic Review,1983,73(1):98-113.
[143]Hendry D F. A Theory of Co-Breaking. Mimeo, Nuffield College University of Oxford, 1996.
[144]Hing Lin Chan, Shu Kam Lee, Kai Yin Woo. Detecting Rational Bubbles in the Residential Housing Markets of Hong Kong[J]. Economic Modelling,2001,18:61-73.
[145]Hodrick R., Prescott E.C. Post-War U.S. Business Cycles:An Empirical Investigation, Mimeo, Pittsbursh:Carnegie-Mellon University,1980.
[146]Hofe, Rainer V. A Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model for Housing Policy:The Case of New York State[J]. Paper Presented at the 49th Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, San Juan, Puerto,2002,11:14-16.
[147]Hsiao C. Analysis of Panel Data[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2003.
[148]Hui E C. An Empirical Study of the Effects of Land Supply and Lease Conditions on the Housing Market:A Case of Hong Kong[J]. Journal of Property Management,2004,22(2): 127-154.
[149]Im K S, Pesaran M H, Shin Y. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels[R]. Department of Applied Economics of Cambridge University,1997.
[150]Im K S, Pesaran M H, Shin Y. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels[J]. Journal of Econometrics,2003,115(1):53-74.
[151]Johansen J., Juselius K. Identification of the Long-run and the Short-run Structure an Application to the ISLM Model[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1991,63(1):7-36.
[152]Johansen S, K Juselius. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-
with Applications to the Demand for Money[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1990,52:169-210.
[153]Johansen S. Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models[J]. Econometrica,1991,59(6):1551-1580.
[154]Johansen S. Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors [J]. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control,1998,12(2-3):231-254.
[155]Johansen S. The Role of the Constant and Linear Terms in Cointegration Analysis in Non-Stationary Time Series[J]. Econometric Reviews,1994,13(2):205-230.
[156]Kao C, Chiang M H. On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data[J]. Advances in Econometrics,2000,15:179-222.
[157]Kao C. Spurious Regression and Residual-based Test for Cointegration in Panel Data[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1999,90(1):1-44.
[158]Kenny G. Modelling the Demand and Supply Sides of the Housing Market:Evidence from Ireland[J]. Economic Modelling,1999,3:389-409.
[159]Kim, Jeongho. Housing Price Hike and Price Stabilization Policy in Korea[A]. Residential Welfare and Housing Policies. The Experience and Future[C]. Seoul Korea,2005:356-378.
[160]Kyung-Hwan Kim. Housing and the Korean Economy[J]. Journal of Housing Economics, 2004,13:321-341.
[161]Larsson R J, Lyhagen, M Lothgren. Likelihood-based Cointegration Tests in Heterogenous Panels[J]. Econometrics Journal,2001,4:109-142.
[162]Lesilie Rosenthal. Income and Price Elasticities of Demand for Owner-occupied Housing in the UK[J]. Applied Economics,1989,21:761-775.
[163]Levin A, Lin C F, Chu C J. Unit Root Tests in Panel Data:Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties[J]. Journal of Economics,2002,108(1):1-24.
[164]Levin A, Lin C F. Unit Root Tests in Panel Data:Asymptotic Finite Sample Properties[R]. Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, UCSD,1992.
[165]Levin A, Lin C F. Unit Root Tests in Panel Data:New Results[R]. Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, UCSD,1993.
[166]Lillydahl, Jane H., Larry. D. Singell. The Effect of Growth Management on Housing Market: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Evidence[J]. Journal of Urban Affairs,1987,17: 63-77.
[167]Loannides, M. Yannis and Rosenthal, S. Stuart. Estimating the Consumption and Investment Demands for Housing and Their Effect on Housing Tenure Status [J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1994,76(1):127-141.
[168]Luk, Fred K. A General Equilibrium Simulation Model of Housing Markets with Indivisibility[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1991,23:153-169.
[169]Lumsdaine R L, D H Papell. Multiple Trend Breaks and the Unit Root Hypothesis[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1997,79(2):212-218.
[170]Maddala G S, In-Moo Kim. Unit Roots, Cointegration and Structural Change[M]. Cambridge University Press,1998.
[171]Maddala G S, Wu S A. Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1999,61:631-652.
[172]Manning C A. The Determinants of Intercity Home Building Site Price Differences [J]. Land Economics,1988,64(1):1-14.
[173]McCoskey S, Kao C. A Residual-Based Test for the Null of Cointegration in Panel Data[J]. Econometric Reviews,1998,17(1):57-84.
[174]Mcnown R, T Puttitanun. New Unit Root Tests of Nelson-Plosser Data[J]. Applied Economics Letters,2002,9(1):9-11.
[175]Meen G. The Removal of Mortgage Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modeling of UK House Prices[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics,1990,32:1-23.
[176]Miller N., Jones S., Roulac S. In Defense of the Land Residual Theory[J]. Journal of Real Estate Research,1995,10(2):203-215.
[177]Min Hwang and Quigley, John M. Economic Fundamentals in Local Housing Markets: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Regions[J]. Journal of Regional Science,2006,8(46): 425-453.
[178]Monk S.P., Whitehead C. Evaluating the Economic Impact of Planning Controls in the United Kingdom:Some Implications for Housing[J]. Land Economics,1999,75(1):74-93.
[179]Monk S.P., Whitehead C. Land-use Planning, Land Supply, and House Prices[J].
Environment and Planning A,1996,28(3):495-511.
[180]Muth R F. Cities and Housing[M]. University of Chicago Press,1969.
[181]Needham B. A Neo-classical Supply-based Approach to Land Prices[J]. Urban Studies,1981, 18(1):91-104.
[182]Neillis J., J. Longbottom. An Empirical Analysis of the Determination of House Price in United Kingdom[J]. Urban Studies,1981,17:9-21.
[183]Nelson C R, C R Plosser. Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series:Some Evidence and Implications[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1982,10(2):139-162.
[184]Newey W K, West K D. Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation[J]. The Review of Economic Studies,1994,61(4):631-653.
[185]O'Sullivan. Urban Economics[M].4th Edition. The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc,2000.
[186]Ooi J., Lee S. Price Discovery between Residential Land & Housing Markets[J]. Journal of Housing Research,2006,15(2):95-112.
[187]Pain N, Westaway P. Modeling Structural Change in the UK Housing Market:A Comparison of Alternative House Price Model[J]. Economic Modeling,1997,14:578-610.
[188]Patric H. Hendershott, Equilibrium Models in Real Estate Research:A Survey[J]. Journal of Real Estate Literature,1998,6:13-25.
[189]Pedroni P. Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis:New Results[R]. Working Paper in Economics, Indian University,1997.
[190]Pedroni P. Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1999,61:653-670.
[191]Pedroni P. Panel Cointegration:Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis[J]. Econometric Theory,2004,20(3): 597-625.
[192]Pedroni P. Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,2001,83(4):727-731.
[193]Peng R., Wheaton W. Effects of Restrictive Land Supply on Housing in Hong Kong:An Econometric Analysis[J]. Journal of Housing Research,1994,5(2):263-291.
[2]包宗华.怎样看待我国的住房价格[J].中国房地产,2004(1)：18-19.
[3]毕宝德,柴强,李玲,等.土地经济学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1998.
[4]曹建海.中国城市土地高效利用研究[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2002.
[5]陈淮,赵露兴.房价谁说了算?——土地与金融制度变革中的中国房地产[M].南昌：江西人民陈版社,2005.
[6]方毅,赵石磊.房屋销售价格和租赁价格的关系研究[J].数理统计与管理,2007,26(6)：951-957.
[7]方毅,赵杨,高丹.中国房价与地价的关系研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2009(6)：83-88.
[8]冯邦彦,刘明.中国房价与地价关系的实证研究[J].统计与决策,2006(4)：4-6.
[9]高波,毛丰付.房价与地价关系的实证检验：1999-2002[J].产业经济研究,2003(3)：19-24.
[10]高波.加入WTO：我国房地产业的市场机会、竞争趋势与应对策略[J].管理世界,2000(5)：96-100.
[11]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模——Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.
[12]郭建平,何建敏.我国经济增长与利用外资的变结构协整分析[J].数理统计与管理,2007(2)：273-278.
[13]郭祎达,张涵.房价与地价实证研究——以较大规模城市为例[J].市场研究,2009(8)：28-30.
[14]何芳.城市土地经济与利用[M].上海：同济大学出版社,2004.
[15]何虹.城市地价高涨及地价稳定措施研究[D].上海：华东师范大学商学院,2006.
[16]黄桐城,黄碧云.城市土地经济学[M].上海：上海交通大学出版社,1998.
[17]季朗超.非均衡的房地产市场[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2004.
[18]蒋黎晅.房地产经济学[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2006.
[19]金三林.我国房价收入比的社会差距与住房政策体系的基本构想[J].经济研究参考,2007(62)：16-21.
[20]竞翔.城市土地价格的构成及影响因素分析[J].价格月刊,1994(1)：15-16.
[21]况伟大.房价与地价关系研究：模型及中国数据检验[J].财贸经济,2005(11)：56-64.
[22]雷永泰,李立新.土地出让方式对房地产价格的影响研究[J].经济研究,2007(2)：88-89.
[23]李嘉图.政治经济学及赋税原理[M].北京：商务印书馆,1962.
[24]李木祥.中国房地产泡沫研究[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2007.
[25]李珍贵.实证研究表明：房上涨带动地价升高[J].国土资源,2005(9)：58-60.
[26]李正全.发达国家政府干预房地产市场的政策、演变趋势及其借鉴意义[J].世界经济研究,2005(5)：63-72.
[27]李子奈,叶阿忠.高等计量经济学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2000.
[28]梁云芳,高铁梅,贺书平.房地产市场与国民经济协调发展的实证分析[J].中国社会科学,2006(3)：74-84.
[29]梁云芳,高铁梅.我国商品住宅销售价格波动成因的实证分析[J].管理世界,2006(8)：76-82.
[30]梁云芳,高铁梅.中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析[J].经济研究,2007(8)：133-142.
[31]梁云芳.我国经济转轨时期房地产增长周期波动——特征、成因和结构变化的计量分析[D].大连：东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,2007.
[32]刘洪玉,沈悦.房地产价格变化规律的经济学分析[J].建筑经济,2004(9)：43-47.
[33]刘洪玉,张红.房地产业与社会经济[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.
[34]刘金平,魏启福,刘亚坪,等.土地整理与城镇地价[M].徐州：中国矿业大学出版社,2001.
[35]刘立民.房地产价格的形成与决定——兼议北京房价为何居高不下[J].城乡建设,2002(5)：24-25.
[36]刘琳,刘洪玉.地价与房价关系的经济学分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003(7)：27-30.
[37]刘润秋,蒋永穆.论房价决定地价——兼论当前房地产宏观调控政策[J].社会科学研究,2005(6)：44-48.
[38]龙开胜,陈利根,李凤.理性认识和处理地价与房价关系之争[J].中国物价,2005(12)：64-66.
[39]龙开胜,李凤.跳出地价陷阱理性认识地价与房价关系之事[J].资源与人居环境,2006(1)：25-26.
[40]吕萍,周淘.土地城市化与价格机制研究[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[41]栾惠德,张晓峒.协整还是协变：来自中国进出口时间序列的经验证据(1950-2004)[J].南开经济研究,2007(2)：140-152.
[42]苗启虎,王方华.房价地价上涨：孰因孰果?[J].价格理论与实践,2004(12)：47-48.
[43]平新乔,陈敏彦.融资、地价与楼盘价格趋势[J].世界经济,2004(7):3-10.
[44]阮家福.中外土地税收制度的比较与借鉴[J].宏观经济研究,2009(9)：75-79.
[45]邵军,徐康宁.基于面板数据协整方法的外资与外贸关系研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(10)：91-99.
[46]沈久沄.对房价收入比科学涵义的再探讨[J].中央财经大学学报,2006(6)：75-79.
[47]沈悦,刘洪玉.住宅价格与经济基本面：1995——2002年中国14城市的实证研究[J].经济研究,2004(6)：78-86.
[48]沈悦.房地产价格与宏观经济的关系研究[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社：知识产权出版社,2006.
[49]宋勃,高波.利率冲击与房地产价格波动的理论与实证分析：1998-2006[J].经济评论,2007(4)：46-56.
[50]宋勃,刘建江.房价与地价关系的理论分析与中国经验的实证检验：1978-2007[J].中央财经大学学报,2009(9)：60-66.
[51]苏良军,何一峰,金赛男.中国城乡居民消费与收入关系的面板数据协整研究[J].世界经济,2006(5)：65-72.
[52]孙巍,李何,何彬,等.现阶段电信业市场结构与价格竞争行为关系的实证研究[J].中国工业经济,2008(4)：73-81.
[53]孙巍,李何,李佳.收入差距、房价及利率政策对消费行为的影响[J].黑龙江社会科学,2008(6)：81-83.
[54]孙巍,李菁,王鹏.我国省际产业集聚与经济收敛性特征及其相互关系的经验研究[J].税务与经济,2008(5)：1-7.
[55]孙巍,王文成,李何.基于PI-LC理论的现阶段居民消费行为研究[J].中国软科学,2008(10)：148-160.
[56]唐焱.区域经济一体化背景下城市土地价格影响因素的理论与实证研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2006(5)：47-55.
[57]汪涛,饶海斌,王丽娟.Panel Data单位根和协整分析[J].统计研究,2002(5)：53-57.
[58]王鹏,李菁.开征物业税对我国房地产市场的影响分析[J].税务与经济,2010(1)：92-94.
[59]王鹏,张雁东.完善我国房地产税计税依据的几点建议[J].当代经济研究,2009(12)：69-70.
[60]王少平,李子奈.结构突变与人民币汇率的经验分析[J].世界经济,2003(8)：22-27.
[61]王少平,杨继生.中国工业能源调整的长期战略与短期措施——基于12个主要工业行业能源需求的综列协整分析[J].中国社会科学,2006(4)：88-96.
[62]王少平.短期因果关系检验及其对湖北经济的实证[J].湖北经济学院学报,2007,1(6)：41-45.
[63]王文成.我国房地产价格演化机理及其相关调控政策的计量分析[D].长春：吉林大学大学商学院,2008.
[64]王岳龙,张瑜.基于中国省级面板数据的房价与地价关系研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2010(1)：50-57.
[65]望晓东.中国房地产泡沫问题研究[D].武汉：华中师范大学经济学院,2005.
[66]魏巍贤,李阳.我国房地产需求的地区差异分析[J].统计研究,2005(9)：56-60.
[67]吴巧生,陈亮,张炎涛,等.中国能源消费与GDP关系的再检验——基于省际面板数据的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(6)：27-40.
[68]夏明文.土地与经济发展：理论分析与中国实证[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2000.
[69]徐滇庆.房价与泡沫经济[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2006.
[70]徐燕.北京市房价过高的原因和房价控制[J].城市问题,2002(1)：42-44.
[71]严金海.中国的房价与地价：理论、实证和政策分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(1)：17-26.
[72]杨宝臣,张世英.变结构协整问题研究[J].系统工程学报,2002,17(1)：26-31.
[73]杨继瑞.影响城市地价的因素体系探析[J].城市规划汇刊,1994(5)：14-20.
[74]杨继瑞.中国城市地价探析[M].北京：高等教育出版社,1997.
[75]杨慎.客观看待房价上涨问题[J].中国房地信息,2003(2)：4-5.
[76]杨勇,温修春.开征物业税对房地产价格的影响[J].中国物价,2005(5)：55-61.
[77]野口悠纪雄.土地经济学[M].北京：商务印书馆,1997.
[78]叶剑平,谢经荣.房地产业与社会经济协调发展研究[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[79]于秀林,任雪松.多元统计分析[M].北京：中国统计出版社,1999.
[80]余华义,陈东.中国地价、利率与房价的关联性研究[J].经济评论,2005(4)：41-49.
[81]原鹏飞.房地产价格波动对宏观经济影响的一般均衡分析[M].长春：厦门大学经济学院,2009.
[82]张红.房地产经济学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2005.
[83]张文新,蒋立红.国外地价与房价关系及其启示[J].中国土地科学,2004,18(3)：50-54.
[84]张晓峒.Eviews使用指南与案例[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2007.
[85]张屹山,赵杨.中国房屋销售价格、土地价格和租赁价格的关系研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2010(1)：74-83.
[86]张兆响,廖先玲,王晓松.中国煤炭消费与经济增长的变结构协整分析[J].资源科学,2008(9)：1282-1289.
[87]赵贺.中国城市土地利用机制研究[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2004.
[88]郑娟尔,吴次芳.地价与房价的因果关系——全国和城市层面的计量研究[J].中国土地科学,2006(6)：31-37.
[89]钟汉明.卓有成效的新加坡住房制度[J].东南亚研究,1994(4-5)：26-27.
[90]周刚华.城市土地价格的微观影响因素及其实证研究[D].杭州：浙江大学管理学院,2006.
[91]周京奎.城市土地价格的波动对房地产业的影响：1999～2005年中国20城市的实证分析[J].当代经济科学,2006(4)：1-7.
[92]周京奎.金融支持过度与房地产泡沫——理论与实证研究[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2005.
[93]周永宏.当前我国房价与租金关系的经济学分析——个市场区隔理论的解释[J].当代财经,2005(10)：13-16.
[94]朱道林,董玛力.地价和房价的经济学分析[J].中国土地,2005(7)：20-21.
[95]Abuaf N, Jorion P. Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run[J]. The Journal of Finance,1990,
45(1):157-174.
[96]Alonso W. Locations and Land Use[M]. Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press,1964.
[97]Alyousha A., Tsoukis C. Ricardian Causal Ordering and the Relation between House and Land Prices:Evidence from England[J]. Applied Economic Letters,1998,5:325-328.
[98]Aoki K., Proudman J., Vlieghe G. House Prices, Consumption, and Monetary Policy:a Financial Accelerator Approach[J]. Journal of Financial Intermediation,2004,4:414-435.
[99]Arrondel, Luc and Lefevre, Bruno. Consumption and Investment Motives in Housing Wealth Accumulation:A French Study[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2001,50:112-137.
[100]Atash, Farhad. Local Land Use Regulations in the USA:A Study of Their Impacts on Housing Cost[J]. Land Use Policy,1999,7(5):231-242.
[101]Baffoe-Bonnie, J. The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of House:A National and Regional Analysis[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,1998,17(2):179-197.
[102]Banerjee A, Lumsdaine R L, Stock J H. Recursive and Sequential of the Tests of Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses:Theory and International Evidence[J]. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,1992,10(3):271-287.
[103]Barot B., Yang Z. House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the United Kingdom-Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-1998[J]. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies (RURDS),2002,14(2):189-216.
[104]Bover O., Muellbauer J., Murphy A. Housing, Wages and UK Labor Market[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1989,51:97-136.
[105]Bramley G. The Impact of Land use Planning and Tax Subsides on the Supply and Price of Housing in Britain[J]. Urban Studies,1993,30(1):5-30.
[106]Bramley, Glen. Land Use Planning and the Housing Market in Britain:the Impact on House Building and House Prices[J]. Environment and Planning,1999,25(6):1021-1051.
[107]Breitung J. A Parametric Approach to the Estimation of Cointegration Vectors in Panel Data[C].10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin July 5-6,2002.
[108]Breitung J. The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data[J]. Advances in Econometrics,2000,15:161-177.
[109]Brown J.N., H.S. Rosen. On the Estimation of Structural Hedonic Price Models[J]. Econometrica,1982,50(3):765-768.
[110]Bruckner J K. A Modern Analysis of the Effects of Site Value Taxation[J]. National Tax Journal,1986,39(1):49-58.
[111]Case B., William N. Goetzmann, K. Geert Rouwenhorst, Global Real Eatate Markets Cycles and Fundamentals[R]. NBER Working Paper, No.7566,2000.
[112]Case K.E., Shiller R.J. Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market[J]. AREUEA Journal,1990,18(3):253-273.
[113]Chang S. Examination of Land Use Policies, Household Income and Price of Small Residential Units in Hong Kong(1985-1995)[D]. Master Thesis of HKU,1996,10:72-78.
[114]Chen M C, Patel K. House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality:An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market[J]. Journal of Asian Real Estate Society,1998,1(1):101.
[115]Cheshire P., Sheppard S. British Planning Policy and Access to Housing:Some Empirical Estimates[J]. Urban Studies,1999,26:469-485.
[116]Chien-Chiang Lee, Chun-Ping Chang. Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Asian Economics:A More Comprehensive Analysis Using Panel Data[J]. Resource and Energy Economics,2008,30:50-65.
[117]Choi I. Unit Root Tests for Panel Data[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,2001, 20(2):249-272.
[118]Clapp J.M., Giaccotto C. The Influence of Economic Variables on Local House Price Dynamics[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1994,36(1):161-183.
[119]Collyns, Charles, Abdelhak Senhadji. Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis[J]. IMF Working Paper,2000.
[120]Dag H., E. Naug. What Drive House Price? [J]. Economic Bulletin,2005,1:29-41.
[121]Dan Ben-David, D H Papell. The Great Wars, the Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Some New Evidence about an Old Stylized Fact[R]. NBER Working Paper, No.4752,1994.
[122]Davies G W. A Model of the Urban Residential Land and Housing Market[J]. The Canadian Journal of Economics,1977,10(3):393-410.
[123]Dicks M J. A Simple Model of the Housing Market[R]. London:Bank of England,1990.
[124]Diparsquel D. Why Don't We Know more about Housing Supply?[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economic Base,1996,11(1):31-37.
[125]Engelhardt, Gary. Housing Prices and the Decision to Save for Down Payments[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1994,36(2):209-237.
[126]Engle R F, Granger C W J. Co-integration and Error Correction:Representation, Estimation, and Testing[J]. Econometrica,1987,55(2):251-276.
[127]Englund P., Iounnides Y.M. House Price Dynamics:An International Empirical Perspective[J]. Journal of Housing Economics,1997,6:119-136.
[128]Euijune Kim, Jaeuk Ju. Growth and Distributional Impact of Urban Housing Supply:An Application of Urban Land Use and A CGE Model for Seoul[J]. Rurds,2003,15:66-81.
[129]Evans A. Economics, Real Estate and the Supply of Land[M]. Oxford:Blackwell Publishing, 2004.
[130]Evans A. Housing Prices and Land Prices in the South East-A Review[M]. London:The House Builders Federation,1987.
[131]French, K., J. Poterba. Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets[J]. American Economic Review,1991,81(2):222-226.
[132]Geoff Kenny. Modeling the Demand and Supply Side of the Housing Market:Evidence from Ireland[J]. Economic Modeling,1999,16:389-409.
[133]Gillen M., Fisher P. Residential Developer Behavior in Land Price Determination[J]. Journal of Property Research,2002,19(1):39-59.
[134]Glaeser E, Gyourko J, C Hilber. Housing Affordability and Land Prices:Is There a Crisis in American Cities[R]. NBER Working Paper, No.8835,2002.
[135]Golland A., Boelhouwer P. Speculative Housing Supply, Land and Housing Markets:A Comparison[J]. Journal of Property Research,2002,19(3):231-251.
[136]Gregory A W, Hansen B E. Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1996,70(1):99-126.
[137]Groen J J, F Kleibergen. Likelihood-based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error-Correction Models[J]. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,2003,21:295-318.
[138]Hadri K. Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data[J]. Econometrics Journal,
2000,3(2):148-161.
[139]Haibin Zhu. What Drives Housing Price Dynamics:Cross-Country Evidence[J]. BIS Quarterly Review,2004,5:65-78.
[140]Hannah L, Kim K H, Mills E S. Land Use Controls and House Prices in Korea[J]. Urban Studies,1993,30:147-156.
[141]Hausman J, Tardiff T, Belinfante A. The Effects of the Breakup of AT&T on Telephone Penetration in the United States[J]. The American Economic Review,1993,83(2):178-184.
[142]Henderson, V. J. and Ioannides, M.Y. A Model of Housing Tenure Choice[J]. The American Economic Review,1983,73(1):98-113.
[143]Hendry D F. A Theory of Co-Breaking. Mimeo, Nuffield College University of Oxford, 1996.
[144]Hing Lin Chan, Shu Kam Lee, Kai Yin Woo. Detecting Rational Bubbles in the Residential Housing Markets of Hong Kong[J]. Economic Modelling,2001,18:61-73.
[145]Hodrick R., Prescott E.C. Post-War U.S. Business Cycles:An Empirical Investigation, Mimeo, Pittsbursh:Carnegie-Mellon University,1980.
[146]Hofe, Rainer V. A Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model for Housing Policy:The Case of New York State[J]. Paper Presented at the 49th Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, San Juan, Puerto,2002,11:14-16.
[147]Hsiao C. Analysis of Panel Data[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2003.
[148]Hui E C. An Empirical Study of the Effects of Land Supply and Lease Conditions on the Housing Market:A Case of Hong Kong[J]. Journal of Property Management,2004,22(2): 127-154.
[149]Im K S, Pesaran M H, Shin Y. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels[R]. Department of Applied Economics of Cambridge University,1997.
[150]Im K S, Pesaran M H, Shin Y. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels[J]. Journal of Econometrics,2003,115(1):53-74.
[151]Johansen J., Juselius K. Identification of the Long-run and the Short-run Structure an Application to the ISLM Model[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1991,63(1):7-36.
[152]Johansen S, K Juselius. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-
with Applications to the Demand for Money[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1990,52:169-210.
[153]Johansen S. Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models[J]. Econometrica,1991,59(6):1551-1580.
[154]Johansen S. Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors [J]. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control,1998,12(2-3):231-254.
[155]Johansen S. The Role of the Constant and Linear Terms in Cointegration Analysis in Non-Stationary Time Series[J]. Econometric Reviews,1994,13(2):205-230.
[156]Kao C, Chiang M H. On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data[J]. Advances in Econometrics,2000,15:179-222.
[157]Kao C. Spurious Regression and Residual-based Test for Cointegration in Panel Data[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1999,90(1):1-44.
[158]Kenny G. Modelling the Demand and Supply Sides of the Housing Market:Evidence from Ireland[J]. Economic Modelling,1999,3:389-409.
[159]Kim, Jeongho. Housing Price Hike and Price Stabilization Policy in Korea[A]. Residential Welfare and Housing Policies. The Experience and Future[C]. Seoul Korea,2005:356-378.
[160]Kyung-Hwan Kim. Housing and the Korean Economy[J]. Journal of Housing Economics, 2004,13:321-341.
[161]Larsson R J, Lyhagen, M Lothgren. Likelihood-based Cointegration Tests in Heterogenous Panels[J]. Econometrics Journal,2001,4:109-142.
[162]Lesilie Rosenthal. Income and Price Elasticities of Demand for Owner-occupied Housing in the UK[J]. Applied Economics,1989,21:761-775.
[163]Levin A, Lin C F, Chu C J. Unit Root Tests in Panel Data:Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties[J]. Journal of Economics,2002,108(1):1-24.
[164]Levin A, Lin C F. Unit Root Tests in Panel Data:Asymptotic Finite Sample Properties[R]. Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, UCSD,1992.
[165]Levin A, Lin C F. Unit Root Tests in Panel Data:New Results[R]. Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, UCSD,1993.
[166]Lillydahl, Jane H., Larry. D. Singell. The Effect of Growth Management on Housing Market: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Evidence[J]. Journal of Urban Affairs,1987,17: 63-77.
[167]Loannides, M. Yannis and Rosenthal, S. Stuart. Estimating the Consumption and Investment Demands for Housing and Their Effect on Housing Tenure Status [J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1994,76(1):127-141.
[168]Luk, Fred K. A General Equilibrium Simulation Model of Housing Markets with Indivisibility[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1991,23:153-169.
[169]Lumsdaine R L, D H Papell. Multiple Trend Breaks and the Unit Root Hypothesis[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1997,79(2):212-218.
[170]Maddala G S, In-Moo Kim. Unit Roots, Cointegration and Structural Change[M]. Cambridge University Press,1998.
[171]Maddala G S, Wu S A. Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1999,61:631-652.
[172]Manning C A. The Determinants of Intercity Home Building Site Price Differences [J]. Land Economics,1988,64(1):1-14.
[173]McCoskey S, Kao C. A Residual-Based Test for the Null of Cointegration in Panel Data[J]. Econometric Reviews,1998,17(1):57-84.
[174]Mcnown R, T Puttitanun. New Unit Root Tests of Nelson-Plosser Data[J]. Applied Economics Letters,2002,9(1):9-11.
[175]Meen G. The Removal of Mortgage Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modeling of UK House Prices[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics,1990,32:1-23.
[176]Miller N., Jones S., Roulac S. In Defense of the Land Residual Theory[J]. Journal of Real Estate Research,1995,10(2):203-215.
[177]Min Hwang and Quigley, John M. Economic Fundamentals in Local Housing Markets: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Regions[J]. Journal of Regional Science,2006,8(46): 425-453.
[178]Monk S.P., Whitehead C. Evaluating the Economic Impact of Planning Controls in the United Kingdom:Some Implications for Housing[J]. Land Economics,1999,75(1):74-93.
[179]Monk S.P., Whitehead C. Land-use Planning, Land Supply, and House Prices[J].
Environment and Planning A,1996,28(3):495-511.
[180]Muth R F. Cities and Housing[M]. University of Chicago Press,1969.
[181]Needham B. A Neo-classical Supply-based Approach to Land Prices[J]. Urban Studies,1981, 18(1):91-104.
[182]Neillis J., J. Longbottom. An Empirical Analysis of the Determination of House Price in United Kingdom[J]. Urban Studies,1981,17:9-21.
[183]Nelson C R, C R Plosser. Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series:Some Evidence and Implications[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1982,10(2):139-162.
[184]Newey W K, West K D. Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation[J]. The Review of Economic Studies,1994,61(4):631-653.
[185]O'Sullivan. Urban Economics[M].4th Edition. The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc,2000.
[186]Ooi J., Lee S. Price Discovery between Residential Land & Housing Markets[J]. Journal of Housing Research,2006,15(2):95-112.
[187]Pain N, Westaway P. Modeling Structural Change in the UK Housing Market:A Comparison of Alternative House Price Model[J]. Economic Modeling,1997,14:578-610.
[188]Patric H. Hendershott, Equilibrium Models in Real Estate Research:A Survey[J]. Journal of Real Estate Literature,1998,6:13-25.
[189]Pedroni P. Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis:New Results[R]. Working Paper in Economics, Indian University,1997.
[190]Pedroni P. Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1999,61:653-670.
[191]Pedroni P. Panel Cointegration:Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis[J]. Econometric Theory,2004,20(3): 597-625.
[192]Pedroni P. Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,2001,83(4):727-731.
[193]Peng R., Wheaton W. Effects of Restrictive Land Supply on Housing in Hong Kong:An Econometric Analysis[J]. Journal of Housing Research,1994,5(2):263-291.