中国过去千年地表温度序列的初步重建及序列分析
摘要
本文通过对我国器测温度资料与代用温度资料的研究,分析了我国近一千年地表温度序列重建的可行性,并对我国过去千年地表温度序列重建做了初步尝试。
在对我国按温度变率划分为5大区域的基础上,以区域平均器测年温序列为校准序列,选取源自我国境内7个不同采样点的27条树轮年表,对我国西部及东北与华北部分地区进行区域温度重建,其中,所有被选用年表均经研究认为对区域年平均温度有较好代表性。在东部地区,选用对年温亦有很好指示意义的葛全胜等冬温序列,该序列由历史文献重建得到。在区域温度序列重建基础上,采用不同方法分别合成具有年分辨率的400年与1000年西部温度序列两条,及具有10年分辨率的400年全国温度序列与具有30年分辨率的1000年全国温度序列各一条。
对以上重建序列做进一步分析发现,区域温度重建序列均在不同程度上表现出了地表温度的百年左右涛动,该周期信号在这个千年的前500年要相对较强,从16到17世纪左右开始显著衰减,并一直持续至今。全国温度重建结果表明,我国在公元1000—1310年间表现出了与欧洲中世纪暖期相对应的温暖阶段,但该暖期在我国西部地区表现得并不显著;而14到19世纪的小冰期则在所有序列中均有显著表现;19世纪中期至上世纪80年代,升温显著,但并未超过中世纪暖期水平。此外,本文也讨论了重建序列的不确定性,以及重建序列与前人研究结果的异同。
Twenty seven tree-ring chronologies from 7 individual sites in western and northeastern China, which have been proved good in quality and being capable of indicating seasonal temperature variation at regional scale, are collected and used to reconstruct regional annual mean temperature series. Combined with the winter-half-year temperature series in eastern China reconstructed by Ge et al. (2003) using historical documents, area-averaged annual mean temperature anomalies with time resolutions of 10-30 years over the past 1000 years for entire China are also reconstructed.Wavelet analysis is made for the regional series, which indicates significant centennial cycle, though the periodic signs tend to be weaker after A.D. 1500. Variability and amplitudes of cold-warm changes in China over the past 1000 years are discussed as well. Choosing A.D. 1951-1980 as climate reference period, annual mean temperature of China is generally wanner from A.D. 1000 to 1310 with a relatively cool episode in 13th century, and it is significantly colder from A.D. 1310 to 1910 with minimum anomalies occurring in 15th, 17th and 19th century respectively. Modern warm period beginning from the end of 19th century looks unusual in terms of the 1000 year variation of annual mean temperature, but it is not significantly warmer than the earlier warm period or Medieval Warm Period (MWP).Some differences between the series of western and eastern China have been detected, and there seems no significant warming during the MWP in the western temperature series. We also compare the present temperature series with those obtained by other researchers.
在对我国按温度变率划分为5大区域的基础上,以区域平均器测年温序列为校准序列,选取源自我国境内7个不同采样点的27条树轮年表,对我国西部及东北与华北部分地区进行区域温度重建,其中,所有被选用年表均经研究认为对区域年平均温度有较好代表性。在东部地区,选用对年温亦有很好指示意义的葛全胜等冬温序列,该序列由历史文献重建得到。在区域温度序列重建基础上,采用不同方法分别合成具有年分辨率的400年与1000年西部温度序列两条,及具有10年分辨率的400年全国温度序列与具有30年分辨率的1000年全国温度序列各一条。
对以上重建序列做进一步分析发现,区域温度重建序列均在不同程度上表现出了地表温度的百年左右涛动,该周期信号在这个千年的前500年要相对较强,从16到17世纪左右开始显著衰减,并一直持续至今。全国温度重建结果表明,我国在公元1000—1310年间表现出了与欧洲中世纪暖期相对应的温暖阶段,但该暖期在我国西部地区表现得并不显著;而14到19世纪的小冰期则在所有序列中均有显著表现;19世纪中期至上世纪80年代,升温显著,但并未超过中世纪暖期水平。此外,本文也讨论了重建序列的不确定性,以及重建序列与前人研究结果的异同。
Twenty seven tree-ring chronologies from 7 individual sites in western and northeastern China, which have been proved good in quality and being capable of indicating seasonal temperature variation at regional scale, are collected and used to reconstruct regional annual mean temperature series. Combined with the winter-half-year temperature series in eastern China reconstructed by Ge et al. (2003) using historical documents, area-averaged annual mean temperature anomalies with time resolutions of 10-30 years over the past 1000 years for entire China are also reconstructed.Wavelet analysis is made for the regional series, which indicates significant centennial cycle, though the periodic signs tend to be weaker after A.D. 1500. Variability and amplitudes of cold-warm changes in China over the past 1000 years are discussed as well. Choosing A.D. 1951-1980 as climate reference period, annual mean temperature of China is generally wanner from A.D. 1000 to 1310 with a relatively cool episode in 13th century, and it is significantly colder from A.D. 1310 to 1910 with minimum anomalies occurring in 15th, 17th and 19th century respectively. Modern warm period beginning from the end of 19th century looks unusual in terms of the 1000 year variation of annual mean temperature, but it is not significantly warmer than the earlier warm period or Medieval Warm Period (MWP).Some differences between the series of western and eastern China have been detected, and there seems no significant warming during the MWP in the western temperature series. We also compare the present temperature series with those obtained by other researchers.
引文
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[11] 邵雪梅,吴祥定,利用树轮资料重建长白山区过去气候变化,第四纪研究,1997,(1),76-83
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[16] 袁玉江,李江风,天山乌鲁木齐河源450a冬季温度序列的重建与分析,1999,21(1),64-70
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[19] Achim Braeuning, Climate history of the Tibetan Plateau during the last 1000 years derived from a network of Juniper chronologies, dendrochronologia, 2001, 19(1), 127-137.
[20] Esper, J., et al., Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability, Science, 2002, 295, 2250-2252.
[21] Briffa, K. R., et al., Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes, Nature, 1998, 391, 678-682.
[22] Dansgaard, W., The O18-abundance in fresh water. Geochim. et Cosmochim. Acta, 1954, 6, 241-260.
[23] 姚檀栋,古里雅冰芯近2000年来气候环境变化记录,第四纪研究,1997,(1).52-61
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[26] 曹建廷,金章东,沈吉等,近800年来内蒙古岱海地区古气温的定量重建,地理科学,2003,23(3),299-303.
[27] Tan, M. et al., Cyclic rapid warming on centennial-scale revealed by a 2650-year stalagmite record of warm season temperature, Geophysical Research Letters, 2003, 30(12), 1617-1620.
[28] Overpeck, J., Hughen, K., Hardy, D., et al., Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries, Science, 1997, 278, 1251-1256.
[29] Jones, P. D., Briffa K. R., Barnett, T. P. and S. F. B. Tett, high-resolution paleoclimatic records for the last millennium; interpretation, integration and comparison with general circulation model control-run temperatures, the Holocene, 1998, 8(4), 455-471.
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[33] 王绍武,龚道溢,全新世几个特征时期的中国气温,自然科学进展,2000,10(4),325-332.
[34] Yang, B., Climatic variations in China over the last 2000 years, Chinese geographical science, 2001, 11(2), 97-103
[35] Fisher, D. A., High-resolution multiproxy climatic records from ice cores, tree-rings, corals and documentary sources using eigenvector techniques and maps assessment of recovered signal and errors, the Holocene, 2003, 12(4), 401-419.
[36] Lamb, H. H., Climate: Present, past and future, 2, 1977, Methuen and Co Ltd, London.
[37] Bradley, R. S., Quaternary Paleoclimatology, 1985, Allen and Unwin, Boston.
[38] Hughes, M. K., Was there a 'medieval warm period', and if so, where and when? Climatic Change, 1994, 26, 109-142.
[39] Bradley, R. S., Briffa, K. R., Cole, J., Hughes, M. K. and T. J. Osborn, "The climate of the last millennium.", In: Paleoclimate, Global Change and the Future (Eds. K. D. Alverson, R. S. Bradley and Thomas F. Pedersen), Global Change - The IGBP series (PAGES), 2003, pp. 105-141 Springer-Verlag.
[40] Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., Barnett, T. P., Tett, S. F. B., High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with general circulation model control-run temperatures, The Holocene, 1998, 8, 455-471
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