事件状态下VMS信息对出行者路径选择影响研究
|
摘要
随着国民经济飞速发展,我国交通量和汽车保有量不断增加,交通拥堵以及交通事故现象日益严重,造成大量的资源浪费,已经严重影响到人们正常的工作、生活。交通信息是影响城市路网交通流分布的关键因素。可变信息板(VMS)在先进出行者信息系统(ATIS)中作为一种发布交通诱导信息的的重要方式,能有效的引导出行者路径选择行为,从而解决部分交通问题,由于其高效、便捷、效用广、收益大,已被人们广泛关注,在交通系统中发挥着重要作用。但目前,我国VMS信息系统处于刚起步阶段,VMS技术还不够成熟,效用的发挥也未达到最大化,限制了其对交通流的疏导作用,国外的VMS技术虽已成熟,但国情不同不能直接运用。因此,VMS对出行者路径选择行为影响研究势在必行,其中必然涉及到影响出行者路径选择行为的相关因素分析,本研究提出具体影响因素,先分类再重点分析,具有一定的针对性,有利于更好地制定和优化符合我国交通现状的VMS诱导信息策略,完善交通出行系统,诱导出行者做出最合理的路径选择行为,加强路网交通流合理分配,缓解交通拥堵、避免二次交通事故的发生以及减少不必要的经济损失,本研究也有利于VMS的全面推广,为相关部门提出可行性建议,促进VMS系统逐步完善并能走向成熟。
本文主要研究在交通拥堵和交通事故两种事件状态下VMS交通诱导信息对出行者路径选择的影响,首先对国内、国外的研究现状进行概述,提出现存问题,然后对可变信息板(VMS)进行阐述；分析信息下出行路径选择行为机理,尽可能提出影响因素,继而采用SP调查问卷的方式对出行者路径选择进行调查,统计数据,基于调查问卷的方法初步分析出相关影响因素；同时对比Probit和Logistic两个回归模型,择优选取Logistic模型,通过SPSS软件基于此模型逐步筛选出自变量,提炼出对出行者路径选择行为影响权重较大的因素,各变量均在不同程度上影响出行者路径选择行为,构建出行者Logistic路径选择概率模型。最后结合全文结论以及调查问卷中调查对象提出的意见部分,提出相应可行性建议。本文研究结果表明最重要的影响因素有四个,分别是：驾龄、出行者对VMS的关注频率、VMS信息准确性、VMS信息及时性。同时得出,出行者对路网的熟悉程度、可变信息板类型,出行者对延误的忍耐程度也对出行者路径改变有着重要的作用。
With the rapid development of national economy, the traffic flow and the number of automobile in China has constantly increased, which results in the growing number of traffic congestion and traffic incidents, also a lot of waste of resources, seriously affecting people's work and life. Traffic information is the key factor of affecting the distribution of traffic flow in urban road network. As one of the most important way to distribute traffic routing information in Advanced Travelers Information System(ATIS), Variable Message Sign(VMS) guides drivers'route choice effectively to solve most traffic problems. It is being widespread concerned and playing an important role because of its high efficiency, convenient, widely used and high benefit. But now in China, VMS information system is in primary stage. The technology is not mature enough, and the effectiveness does not reach the maximum, which limits its relief effect. Although the technology has been mature abroad, we can't make use of it directly for different national conditions. Therefore, it is imperative to study the impact of VMS on drivers'route choice behaviour. It definitely involves the analysis of related influencing factors of drivers'route choice. This paper proposes various of influence factors, then categorize, analyze as focal point with pertinence. This study is helpful to make and optimize VMS guiding information policy to meet our traffic situation, to improve travel system and guide drivers'route choice behavior, strengthen the rational distribution of road network traffic flow, relief traffic congestion, avoid secondary accidents and reducing the unnecessary economic loss, it is also helpful to the overall popularization of VMS, make feasible suggestions to related departments, and promote the improvement and maturation of VMS system.
This paper mainly studies the impact of VMS traffic guidance informtion on drivers' route choice under the two conditions of traffic congestion and traffic accident. First, summarize the current development situation at home and abroad, find the existing problems, then elaborate on the Variable Message Sign(VMS); analyze route choice behavior mechanism under guidance information, bring up corresponding facors as possible. After that, make field investigation on the drivers'route choice by means of SP survey questionnaire, analyze data and primarily analyze the related factors based on the means of questionnaire; and then compare the two regression models of Probit and Logisitic with each other, pick over the Logistic model, and based on this model step sizing independent variable with SPSS software, find out the factor impact on drivers'route choice behavior with higher effect weight. All factors impact on drivers'route choice in different degrees, finally build the drivers's Logistic route choice probability model. Meanwhile, we propose feasible suggestions according to the conclusion and advices by people who accept the survey. The paper shows there are four most important factors, they are:driving years, drivers'attention-degree on VMS, VMS accuracy, VMS punctuality. The degree of familiarity to road network of driver and the type of variable message signs, drivers'delay tolerance degree are also playing the important roles in travelers'route changing.
本文主要研究在交通拥堵和交通事故两种事件状态下VMS交通诱导信息对出行者路径选择的影响,首先对国内、国外的研究现状进行概述,提出现存问题,然后对可变信息板(VMS)进行阐述；分析信息下出行路径选择行为机理,尽可能提出影响因素,继而采用SP调查问卷的方式对出行者路径选择进行调查,统计数据,基于调查问卷的方法初步分析出相关影响因素；同时对比Probit和Logistic两个回归模型,择优选取Logistic模型,通过SPSS软件基于此模型逐步筛选出自变量,提炼出对出行者路径选择行为影响权重较大的因素,各变量均在不同程度上影响出行者路径选择行为,构建出行者Logistic路径选择概率模型。最后结合全文结论以及调查问卷中调查对象提出的意见部分,提出相应可行性建议。本文研究结果表明最重要的影响因素有四个,分别是：驾龄、出行者对VMS的关注频率、VMS信息准确性、VMS信息及时性。同时得出,出行者对路网的熟悉程度、可变信息板类型,出行者对延误的忍耐程度也对出行者路径改变有着重要的作用。
With the rapid development of national economy, the traffic flow and the number of automobile in China has constantly increased, which results in the growing number of traffic congestion and traffic incidents, also a lot of waste of resources, seriously affecting people's work and life. Traffic information is the key factor of affecting the distribution of traffic flow in urban road network. As one of the most important way to distribute traffic routing information in Advanced Travelers Information System(ATIS), Variable Message Sign(VMS) guides drivers'route choice effectively to solve most traffic problems. It is being widespread concerned and playing an important role because of its high efficiency, convenient, widely used and high benefit. But now in China, VMS information system is in primary stage. The technology is not mature enough, and the effectiveness does not reach the maximum, which limits its relief effect. Although the technology has been mature abroad, we can't make use of it directly for different national conditions. Therefore, it is imperative to study the impact of VMS on drivers'route choice behaviour. It definitely involves the analysis of related influencing factors of drivers'route choice. This paper proposes various of influence factors, then categorize, analyze as focal point with pertinence. This study is helpful to make and optimize VMS guiding information policy to meet our traffic situation, to improve travel system and guide drivers'route choice behavior, strengthen the rational distribution of road network traffic flow, relief traffic congestion, avoid secondary accidents and reducing the unnecessary economic loss, it is also helpful to the overall popularization of VMS, make feasible suggestions to related departments, and promote the improvement and maturation of VMS system.
This paper mainly studies the impact of VMS traffic guidance informtion on drivers' route choice under the two conditions of traffic congestion and traffic accident. First, summarize the current development situation at home and abroad, find the existing problems, then elaborate on the Variable Message Sign(VMS); analyze route choice behavior mechanism under guidance information, bring up corresponding facors as possible. After that, make field investigation on the drivers'route choice by means of SP survey questionnaire, analyze data and primarily analyze the related factors based on the means of questionnaire; and then compare the two regression models of Probit and Logisitic with each other, pick over the Logistic model, and based on this model step sizing independent variable with SPSS software, find out the factor impact on drivers'route choice behavior with higher effect weight. All factors impact on drivers'route choice in different degrees, finally build the drivers's Logistic route choice probability model. Meanwhile, we propose feasible suggestions according to the conclusion and advices by people who accept the survey. The paper shows there are four most important factors, they are:driving years, drivers'attention-degree on VMS, VMS accuracy, VMS punctuality. The degree of familiarity to road network of driver and the type of variable message signs, drivers'delay tolerance degree are also playing the important roles in travelers'route changing.
引文
[1]姬杨蓓蓓.交通事件持续时间预测方法研究[D].上海：同济大学,2008.
[2]干宏程.VMS诱导信息影响下的路径选择行为分析[J].系统工程,2008,26(3)：11-16.
[3]李渊,丁威.可变情报板在高速公路的信息发布、交通诱导等方面起着非常重要的作用.2010. http://www.dyfb.cn/Article_Show.asp?ArticleID=2494.
[4]杨兆升.城市智能公共交通系统理论与方法[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2004.
[5]李景,陈迪.ITS技术在诱导信息系统中的应用研究[J].中国公路,2001(11)：82-83.
[6]K.Wundelich:A Simulation-Based Assessment of Route Guidance Benefits under Variable Network Congestion Conditions. Mathematical and Computer Modelling.1998.27(87-101).
[7]Emmerink RHM, et al. Variable message signs and radio traffic information: an integrated empirical analysis of drivers' route choice behavior. Transportation Research-A,1996 (30),2:135:153.
[8]陈希.新型路网可变情报板对出行路径选择影响研究[D].北京：交通部公路科学研究院,2008.
[9]Peter Bonsall, Ian Palmer, The Impact On Route Choice Of Direction Advice and Guidance From VMS Signs.1992.
[10]Srinivas Peeta,Jorge L.Ramos, Raghubhushan Pasupathy, Contedt of Variable Message Signs and On-line Driver Behavior, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, DC January,2000.
[11]Hato, E,Taniguchi, M., Sugie, Y.,1996. Influence of traffic information on drivers' route choice. In:Hensher, D. A., King, J., Oum, T.H. (Eds.),World Transport Research. Proceedings of the 7th World Conference,vol.1:Travel Behavior Elsevier, Oxford, pp.27-40.
[12]K. Chatterjee, N. B. Hounsell, P.E.Firmin, P.W.Bonsall. Driver response to variable message sign information in London[J]. Transportation Research Part C 10(2002):149-169.
[13]许娟,邵春福,综凯.信息和诱导对驾驶员径路选择行为的影响研究[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2004(11)：53-55.
[14]张存保,杨晓光,严新平.交通信息对驾驶员选择行为的影响研究[J].交通与计算机,2004(5).
[15]姜桂艳,郑祖舵,白竹,代磊磊,赵佳琪.拥挤条件下可变信息板交通诱导信息对驾驶行为的影响[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2006(2)：183-187.
[16]陈越慧.VMS诱导系统对行车安全的影响分析[J].四川建筑,2008(03)
[17]郑祖舵,姜桂艳,赵佳琪,代磊磊.国内外可变信息标志技术最新研究进展第六届中国高速公路机电项目研讨会论文集[C].2006.
[18]倪富健,刘志超.可变交通信息牌的最优分布模型[J].信息与控制,2003.
[19]干宏程,孙立军.可变情报板技术的评价、现状与进展[J].上海公路,2003.
[20]David Levinson, The value of advanced traveler information systems for route choice, Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies, Volume 11,Jssue 1, February 2003:75-87.
[21]韩苗苗.可变信息标志的人-机关系研究[D].西安：长安大学,2008.
[22]周元峰.基于信息的驾驶员路径选择行为及动态诱导模型研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2007.
[23]李悦.城市交通诱导系统可变信息标志关键问题研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2006.
[24]张荣光,乔梁.北京市VMS布局规划设置研究[J].道路交通与安全,2010(03).
[25]高速公路可变信息板设置技术.河北交通科技信息网.http://www. hebjtinfo. com/article/showinfo. asp?id=36057.2010.
[26]陈希,张纪升,张晓亮.基于问卷调查的嵌入式可变情报板应用分析[J].道路交通与安全,2010(01).
[27]李瑞敏.城市道路交通管理[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2009.
[28]包煊,朱良等.VMS发布动态交通诱导信息的探讨[J].现代显示,2006(6)：63-65.
[29]黄智芳.诱导信息与路径选择行为对交通流分布的影响研究[D].长沙：长沙理工大学,2007.
[30]黄海军.城市交通网络动态建模与交通行为研究[J].管理学报,2005(1)：28-22.
[31]干宏程,何胜学,范炳全.可变信息标志的路网优化布局研究[C].上海上海理工大学,2006.
[32]乔建刚,史建港,荣健.基于人的心理生理反应的信息诱导研究[M].2005.
[33]李小强.可变信息标志(VMS)选址问题研究[D].北京：北京交通大学硕士论文,2008.
[34]隽志才,鲜于建川.交通信息作用下的活动-出行决策行为研究[J].中国公路学报,2008(4)：88-92.
[35]干宏程,孙立军,陈建阳.提供交通信息条件下的途中改道行为研究[J].同济大学学报,2006(11)：1484-1488.
[36]林震,杨浩.交通信息服务条件下的出行选择分析[J].中国公路学报,2003(1)：87-90.
[37]柯友华,云美萍.城市出行选择行为机理研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2007(2)：95-101.
[38]吕杰,葛颖恩,杨佩昆.诱导/信息影响下的驾驶员反应行为研究[J].公路交通科技,1999(1)：68-70.
[39]吴文祥,黄海军,范景军.交通信息对交通行为的影响和信息发布策略研究的一个新模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2008(3)：144-149.
[40]石小法,王炜,杨东援.信息对出行者出行行为的影响研究[J].中国会路学报,2002(1)：89-92.
[41]曾松,杨晓光.驾驶员信息系统运行初期的信息提供策略[J].城市轨道交通研究,2000(2)：33-37.
[42]Wardamn,M,Bonsall, P. W., Shires, J. D., Driver response to variable message sign:a stated preference investigation, " Transpotation Research 5C(6),1997, pp.389-405.
[43]李红宝,徐建闽等.基于SP数据的VMS设置模型研究[J].公路工程,2009,34(1)：35-38.
[44]王方,陈金川,张德欣.SP调查在交通方式选择模型中的应用[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2007(05)：90-94.
[45]海平.市场调查问卷设计的几类常见错误及纠正[J].市场研究,2007(02)：38-40.
[46]李其富.Logistic模型与Probit模型及其在刑事作案人员分析中的应用[J].四川警官高等专科学校学报,2002,14(4).
[47]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型-方法与应用[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2001.
[48]李海超,李颖琰,王爱英,吴建,王轶.利用有序Probit模型进行健康需求分析[J].中国组织工程研究与临床康复,2008
[49]黄敏,周涛.Probit随机均衡选择模型在P&R需求预测中的应用[J].交通标准化,2007.
[50]张文彤,董伟.SPSS统计分析高级教程[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2004.
[2]干宏程.VMS诱导信息影响下的路径选择行为分析[J].系统工程,2008,26(3)：11-16.
[3]李渊,丁威.可变情报板在高速公路的信息发布、交通诱导等方面起着非常重要的作用.2010. http://www.dyfb.cn/Article_Show.asp?ArticleID=2494.
[4]杨兆升.城市智能公共交通系统理论与方法[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2004.
[5]李景,陈迪.ITS技术在诱导信息系统中的应用研究[J].中国公路,2001(11)：82-83.
[6]K.Wundelich:A Simulation-Based Assessment of Route Guidance Benefits under Variable Network Congestion Conditions. Mathematical and Computer Modelling.1998.27(87-101).
[7]Emmerink RHM, et al. Variable message signs and radio traffic information: an integrated empirical analysis of drivers' route choice behavior. Transportation Research-A,1996 (30),2:135:153.
[8]陈希.新型路网可变情报板对出行路径选择影响研究[D].北京：交通部公路科学研究院,2008.
[9]Peter Bonsall, Ian Palmer, The Impact On Route Choice Of Direction Advice and Guidance From VMS Signs.1992.
[10]Srinivas Peeta,Jorge L.Ramos, Raghubhushan Pasupathy, Contedt of Variable Message Signs and On-line Driver Behavior, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, DC January,2000.
[11]Hato, E,Taniguchi, M., Sugie, Y.,1996. Influence of traffic information on drivers' route choice. In:Hensher, D. A., King, J., Oum, T.H. (Eds.),World Transport Research. Proceedings of the 7th World Conference,vol.1:Travel Behavior Elsevier, Oxford, pp.27-40.
[12]K. Chatterjee, N. B. Hounsell, P.E.Firmin, P.W.Bonsall. Driver response to variable message sign information in London[J]. Transportation Research Part C 10(2002):149-169.
[13]许娟,邵春福,综凯.信息和诱导对驾驶员径路选择行为的影响研究[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2004(11)：53-55.
[14]张存保,杨晓光,严新平.交通信息对驾驶员选择行为的影响研究[J].交通与计算机,2004(5).
[15]姜桂艳,郑祖舵,白竹,代磊磊,赵佳琪.拥挤条件下可变信息板交通诱导信息对驾驶行为的影响[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2006(2)：183-187.
[16]陈越慧.VMS诱导系统对行车安全的影响分析[J].四川建筑,2008(03)
[17]郑祖舵,姜桂艳,赵佳琪,代磊磊.国内外可变信息标志技术最新研究进展第六届中国高速公路机电项目研讨会论文集[C].2006.
[18]倪富健,刘志超.可变交通信息牌的最优分布模型[J].信息与控制,2003.
[19]干宏程,孙立军.可变情报板技术的评价、现状与进展[J].上海公路,2003.
[20]David Levinson, The value of advanced traveler information systems for route choice, Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies, Volume 11,Jssue 1, February 2003:75-87.
[21]韩苗苗.可变信息标志的人-机关系研究[D].西安：长安大学,2008.
[22]周元峰.基于信息的驾驶员路径选择行为及动态诱导模型研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2007.
[23]李悦.城市交通诱导系统可变信息标志关键问题研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2006.
[24]张荣光,乔梁.北京市VMS布局规划设置研究[J].道路交通与安全,2010(03).
[25]高速公路可变信息板设置技术.河北交通科技信息网.http://www. hebjtinfo. com/article/showinfo. asp?id=36057.2010.
[26]陈希,张纪升,张晓亮.基于问卷调查的嵌入式可变情报板应用分析[J].道路交通与安全,2010(01).
[27]李瑞敏.城市道路交通管理[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2009.
[28]包煊,朱良等.VMS发布动态交通诱导信息的探讨[J].现代显示,2006(6)：63-65.
[29]黄智芳.诱导信息与路径选择行为对交通流分布的影响研究[D].长沙：长沙理工大学,2007.
[30]黄海军.城市交通网络动态建模与交通行为研究[J].管理学报,2005(1)：28-22.
[31]干宏程,何胜学,范炳全.可变信息标志的路网优化布局研究[C].上海上海理工大学,2006.
[32]乔建刚,史建港,荣健.基于人的心理生理反应的信息诱导研究[M].2005.
[33]李小强.可变信息标志(VMS)选址问题研究[D].北京：北京交通大学硕士论文,2008.
[34]隽志才,鲜于建川.交通信息作用下的活动-出行决策行为研究[J].中国公路学报,2008(4)：88-92.
[35]干宏程,孙立军,陈建阳.提供交通信息条件下的途中改道行为研究[J].同济大学学报,2006(11)：1484-1488.
[36]林震,杨浩.交通信息服务条件下的出行选择分析[J].中国公路学报,2003(1)：87-90.
[37]柯友华,云美萍.城市出行选择行为机理研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2007(2)：95-101.
[38]吕杰,葛颖恩,杨佩昆.诱导/信息影响下的驾驶员反应行为研究[J].公路交通科技,1999(1)：68-70.
[39]吴文祥,黄海军,范景军.交通信息对交通行为的影响和信息发布策略研究的一个新模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2008(3)：144-149.
[40]石小法,王炜,杨东援.信息对出行者出行行为的影响研究[J].中国会路学报,2002(1)：89-92.
[41]曾松,杨晓光.驾驶员信息系统运行初期的信息提供策略[J].城市轨道交通研究,2000(2)：33-37.
[42]Wardamn,M,Bonsall, P. W., Shires, J. D., Driver response to variable message sign:a stated preference investigation, " Transpotation Research 5C(6),1997, pp.389-405.
[43]李红宝,徐建闽等.基于SP数据的VMS设置模型研究[J].公路工程,2009,34(1)：35-38.
[44]王方,陈金川,张德欣.SP调查在交通方式选择模型中的应用[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2007(05)：90-94.
[45]海平.市场调查问卷设计的几类常见错误及纠正[J].市场研究,2007(02)：38-40.
[46]李其富.Logistic模型与Probit模型及其在刑事作案人员分析中的应用[J].四川警官高等专科学校学报,2002,14(4).
[47]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型-方法与应用[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2001.
[48]李海超,李颖琰,王爱英,吴建,王轶.利用有序Probit模型进行健康需求分析[J].中国组织工程研究与临床康复,2008
[49]黄敏,周涛.Probit随机均衡选择模型在P&R需求预测中的应用[J].交通标准化,2007.
[50]张文彤,董伟.SPSS统计分析高级教程[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2004.