气象服务效益与热带气旋灾害评估方法的研究
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摘要
随着气象服务在人们的生产生活中扮演着越来越重要的角色,了解公众对气象服务的评价及需求、评估气象服务的效益显得十分必要。本文通过对中国气象局气象效益评估研究组抽样调查得到的175958份问卷数据进行无效问卷剔除后,分析了我国公众对气象服务的满意程度等情况,结果显示约74.3%的公众对气象服务表示满意或较满意。分析表明：全国公众对灾害性天气预报警报等信息的关注度较高,提高其预报服务准确率是绝大多数公众对气象服务的改进意见,对6-72h(3d)的短期天气预报关注度随时间呈上升趋势,在72h(3d)后公众的关注度随着预报时效的延长、预报精度的下降而迅速下降。调查发现,绝大多数公众(约85.5%)是通过电视媒体来获取气象信息,收视率的最高峰时间为晚上。同时研究了公众对于天气预报的准确度评价与对气象服务的总体满意度评价,结合条件价值评估方法分析得到,当满意度和准确度提高后,公众的直接支付意愿提高,认为天气预报基本准确,对气象总体服务表示满意的人数最多,从公众直接支付意愿总额来看,该准确度和满意度组合在全国占比最大,分析得到为气象服务产品提供定价的参考思路。全国公众的直接支付意愿均值随着满意度的增加呈近似线性增长趋势,当满意度较低时,乡村公众的支付意愿均值大于城市公众的支付意愿均值；满意度高时,情况相反,这种结果的出现可以解释为城市公众的价值观念与农村公众价值观念的不同。
采用影子价格法、节省费用法和自愿付费法定量计算华中地区服务气象服务效益值分别为77.219亿元/年、91.264亿元/年和24.798亿元/年,效益值差异产生于不同评估思路的选择。自愿付费法是从公众个人角度出发,计算所得效益值在三种方法中最小：影子价格法是通过拨打付费电话的次数来侧面反映气象服务的效益,影子价格的大小在很大程度上决定了用该方法计算所得气象服务效益的大小；节省费用法是采用为公众节省费用的评估思路,计算所得气象服务效益可以视为气象服务产生的社会效益。采用最小二乘法分析得到对我国东、中、西部及华中地区公众直接支付意愿有显著影响的因素个数及种类各有不同。选取上海、湖北、西藏为研究区域,初探影响我国我国东、中、西部公众直接支付意愿的因素,相对于其他因素而言,接受信息频次因素对上海地区公众直接支付意愿有最显著的影响,常住地因素对湖北地区公众直接支付意愿有最显著影响,年龄因素对西藏地区公众直接支付意愿有最为显著的影响,公众职业的因素对三地区公众直接支付意愿均无显著影响。将当年三地人均GDP数据与公众人均直接支付意愿均值对比分析后可知公众直接支付意愿均值与当地经济发展水平有关。
通过使用转换函数获得具有了一定可比性的热带气旋灾情指标,采用偏最小二乘法得到热带气旋综合损失评估模型,对2006年登陆我国的热带气旋各省的综合损失进行评价并计算得到2006年浙江省桑美台风台风气象服务效益为38.43亿元。
The meteorological service is becoming more and more important for public people in our society. Therefore, it is necessary to know service users'needs, opinion of weather forecast and evaluate meteorogical service. By getting rid of the invalid data of175958questionnaires which came from China Meteorological Administration, the public opinion of weather forecast's accuracy and people's satisfaction about meteorological service are analyzed. The results indicated that about74.3%of surveyed people are satisfied with the public meteorological service in China. What's more, public people pay more attention to the warning forecast of meteorological disaster and the6-72hours (3days) forecast. However, as weather forecast's accuracy goes down rapidly after72hours (3days). public people lose their interest in paying attention to weather forecast correspondingly. The vast majority of public people (about85.5%) get meteorological information by TV at night. The average number of willingness to pay is increased as the rate of weather forecast accuracy improved and people's satisfaction about meteorological service goes up. Rural people's payment is higher than payment of people who live in town when the satisfaction degree is in low level. On the opposite, the situation in high level is quite different. Rural people's payment is lower than payment of people who live in town. The explanation for this situation occurrence is they have different standards and values. After analyzing the average payment of willingness to pay in16groups in which public people hold the same view of weather forecast's accuracy and satisfaction about meteorological service, a method of pricing meteorological service is obtained.
By analyzing the middle area of China, it is indicated that the benefit of public meteorological service in middle area of China are RMB7.7219billion, RMB9.1264billion and RMB2.4798billion with3methods. The different results come from difference of assessment thought. In order to find out influence factors of willingness to pay in east, middle and west part of China, ordinary least square method is used in analyzing data from Shanghai, Hubei and Tibet. Results show that frequency of receiving weather information has the most significant effect on public people's payment in Shanghai.What's more, the living place has the most significant effect on public people's payment in Hubei.Finally, the age has the most significant effect on public people's payment in Tibet. Career has not shown any effect on public people's payment in Shanghai, Hubei or Tibet. The average payment of willingness to pay in east, middle and west part of China is related to the per capita gross domestic product.
Disasters data of tropical cyclone become comparable by using U(x) function in this paper. Evaluating model of tropical cyclone disaster is built up by using partial least-squares regression method and the meteorological service value of typhoon Saomai in Zhejiang provice in2006is RMB3.843billion.
采用影子价格法、节省费用法和自愿付费法定量计算华中地区服务气象服务效益值分别为77.219亿元/年、91.264亿元/年和24.798亿元/年,效益值差异产生于不同评估思路的选择。自愿付费法是从公众个人角度出发,计算所得效益值在三种方法中最小：影子价格法是通过拨打付费电话的次数来侧面反映气象服务的效益,影子价格的大小在很大程度上决定了用该方法计算所得气象服务效益的大小；节省费用法是采用为公众节省费用的评估思路,计算所得气象服务效益可以视为气象服务产生的社会效益。采用最小二乘法分析得到对我国东、中、西部及华中地区公众直接支付意愿有显著影响的因素个数及种类各有不同。选取上海、湖北、西藏为研究区域,初探影响我国我国东、中、西部公众直接支付意愿的因素,相对于其他因素而言,接受信息频次因素对上海地区公众直接支付意愿有最显著的影响,常住地因素对湖北地区公众直接支付意愿有最显著影响,年龄因素对西藏地区公众直接支付意愿有最为显著的影响,公众职业的因素对三地区公众直接支付意愿均无显著影响。将当年三地人均GDP数据与公众人均直接支付意愿均值对比分析后可知公众直接支付意愿均值与当地经济发展水平有关。
通过使用转换函数获得具有了一定可比性的热带气旋灾情指标,采用偏最小二乘法得到热带气旋综合损失评估模型,对2006年登陆我国的热带气旋各省的综合损失进行评价并计算得到2006年浙江省桑美台风台风气象服务效益为38.43亿元。
The meteorological service is becoming more and more important for public people in our society. Therefore, it is necessary to know service users'needs, opinion of weather forecast and evaluate meteorogical service. By getting rid of the invalid data of175958questionnaires which came from China Meteorological Administration, the public opinion of weather forecast's accuracy and people's satisfaction about meteorological service are analyzed. The results indicated that about74.3%of surveyed people are satisfied with the public meteorological service in China. What's more, public people pay more attention to the warning forecast of meteorological disaster and the6-72hours (3days) forecast. However, as weather forecast's accuracy goes down rapidly after72hours (3days). public people lose their interest in paying attention to weather forecast correspondingly. The vast majority of public people (about85.5%) get meteorological information by TV at night. The average number of willingness to pay is increased as the rate of weather forecast accuracy improved and people's satisfaction about meteorological service goes up. Rural people's payment is higher than payment of people who live in town when the satisfaction degree is in low level. On the opposite, the situation in high level is quite different. Rural people's payment is lower than payment of people who live in town. The explanation for this situation occurrence is they have different standards and values. After analyzing the average payment of willingness to pay in16groups in which public people hold the same view of weather forecast's accuracy and satisfaction about meteorological service, a method of pricing meteorological service is obtained.
By analyzing the middle area of China, it is indicated that the benefit of public meteorological service in middle area of China are RMB7.7219billion, RMB9.1264billion and RMB2.4798billion with3methods. The different results come from difference of assessment thought. In order to find out influence factors of willingness to pay in east, middle and west part of China, ordinary least square method is used in analyzing data from Shanghai, Hubei and Tibet. Results show that frequency of receiving weather information has the most significant effect on public people's payment in Shanghai.What's more, the living place has the most significant effect on public people's payment in Hubei.Finally, the age has the most significant effect on public people's payment in Tibet. Career has not shown any effect on public people's payment in Shanghai, Hubei or Tibet. The average payment of willingness to pay in east, middle and west part of China is related to the per capita gross domestic product.
Disasters data of tropical cyclone become comparable by using U(x) function in this paper. Evaluating model of tropical cyclone disaster is built up by using partial least-squares regression method and the meteorological service value of typhoon Saomai in Zhejiang provice in2006is RMB3.843billion.
引文
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