甘肃风电产业溢出效应测度及补偿机制研究
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摘要
资源的有限支持和环境的有限承载要求人类社会必须转变增长模式,而能源基础的转变是根本。甘肃风电产业发展对甘肃乃至全国的能源发展战略具有重要意义,但目前风电产业市场竞争力不强,风能资源利用效率不高。风电产业具有显著的经济、社会和环境效益,存在着明显的溢出效应。众多学者肯定了风电产业的溢出效应,但未能给出系统的测度和合理的补偿机制、理顺利益分配关系,这正是限制风电产业发展的隐性约束。本论文重点研究甘肃风电产业的经济、环境溢出效应,根据溢出效应测度结果,探寻科学的补偿机制,这对风电产业健康持续发展,风能资源的充分利用、能源战略的有效实施、区域经济协调发展都具有很强的理论价值和现实意义。
首先,在对国内外相关研究文献进行系统梳理的基础上,明确界定溢出效应、补偿机制、风电产业等相关概念,通过将甘肃风电产业发展置于全球、全国范围内进行比较分析,归纳总结甘肃风电产业发展现状和存在问题,指出关注甘肃风电产业溢出效应的必要性和建立补偿机制的迫切性,为后续研究提供理论支撑和现实基础。
第二,对溢出效应产生机理进行系统分析,从产生机理、传导机理、吸收机理和再现机理等环节探讨影响溢出效应的各种因素及其影响方式,从纵向上对溢出效应实现过程进行解析。横向剖面的分析则是从三个层面建立甘肃风电产业溢出效应体系：宏观层面,风电产业跨省域及省域内的经济、社会及环境的溢出效应体系；中观层面,风电产业在三次产业间溢出效应体系,进而形成产业结构溢出效应体系；微观层面,风电企业和相关上下游企业间技术溢出效应体系。
第三,建立甘肃风电产业跨省域经济溢出效应测度模型,对溢出效应进行测度。结果表明：在全国范围内,风电产业跨省域经济溢出效应具有普遍性和空间性；甘肃风电产业跨省域空间经济溢出效应弹性系数较小,对经济增长的解释力不强,分别作用于全国31省(市)经济溢出效应差距较大,且表现出明显的地理距离衰减性；甘肃风电产业在未来5年和15年间,风电远距离输送产生直接的跨省域经济溢出效应非常显著。
第四,甘肃风电产业省域内经济溢出效应表现为对经济增长的推动、产业结构变动及技术溢出三个方面。1.在经济增长方面：风电装备制造业的发展集聚效应大于溢出效应；风电装机容量存在着正向空间经济溢出效应；2.产业结构溢出效应方面：风电产业发展有助于提升第一产业和第三产业的内部结构,增强产业结构优势,但未转变为产业竞争优势,不仅带动第二产业及制造业产业结构的优化,而且还提升了产业竞争力；风电装备制造业有效提升制造业各偏离份额分量,对制造业的拉动作用非常显著,产生了较强的产业结构溢出效应；相对于全国风电装机容量产生的产业结构溢出效应,甘肃风电装机容量的各偏离分量增长速度最快,存在正向产业结构溢出效应。3.技术溢出方面：风电产业对整体产业存在积极的后向技术溢出效应,对第一产业产生了积极的后向溢出效应,对第三产业仅在技术进步维度存在前向技术溢出效应,在技术效率维度存在后向技术溢出效应,对第二产业前向技术溢出效应为负值,在全要素生产率和技术进步维度具有较强的后向技术溢出效应,对制造业产生了较强的后向溢出效应,是导致对第二产业后向溢出效应的根本原因。
第五,从风电替代煤电角度测度的正向环境溢出效应,包括节约煤炭使用量、减少煤炭使用而减少污染物排放、减少煤炭开采而减少生态环境破坏三个维度,正向环境溢出效应非常显著,随着风能资源利用效率的逐步提高和风电发展规模的不断扩大,溢出效应还将逐步增强；从甘肃风电外送角度测度的正向跨区域环境溢出效应亦非常显著；风电产业产生负向环境溢出效应,主要包括风电场建设周期内的能耗、污染物排放及对本区域生态环境破坏。考虑到风电场自身能源供应能力的不断提升,风电场能源回收率不断提高,能源回收期大幅缩短。相比于风电替代煤电而减少的污染物排放,风电场建设导致污染物排放量并不严重。甘肃风电场均布设于荒漠地区及非自然保护区,风电场建设导致的环境破坏不显著,未产生严重的水土流失、噪音、辐射及鸟类安全等方面的负向溢出。总之,甘肃风电产业发展产生的正向环境溢出效应远远大于负向环境溢出效应,对区域和跨区域环境改善都具有明显的带动作用。
最后,在对经济和环境溢出效应进行合理测度的基础上,探讨了甘肃风电产业溢出效应补偿机制。明确甘肃风电产业溢出效应补偿依据、补偿主客体及补偿途径。分别从政府、市场和企业三个补偿主体给出相应补偿途径和措施。政府补偿途径主要涉及区际纵向补偿和区际横向补偿,将政府宏观调控与地方政府间利益协调完美结合,在政策上实现对溢出效应的合理补偿；市场补偿途径主要着眼于风电价格形成机制、区域合作机制及市场金融支持等方面的补偿措施,从市场对资源配置角度实现对溢出效应的合理补偿；企业作为补偿的微观主体,通过企业合作、项目及智力与技术补偿、治理补偿等补偿措施实现企业间互利共赢,并给出了组织、实施、利益协调和技术支撑等方面的补偿长效机制。
Limited support of resources and environmental carrying capacity require human society should change the growth mode,however, to which transformation of energy foundation is fundamental. The development of wind power industry in Gansu Province has strategic importance of energy development, But currently, the wind power industry lacks the market competitiveness:it is inefficient in the using of wind energy resource,while wind power industry contains significant economic, social and environmental spillover effects. Many scholars have affirmed the spillover effects of the wind power industry, but succeeded in neither giving a reasonable measure of compensation mechanisms and systems, nor rationalizing the relationship among the distribution of benefits, which is the implicit constraints on the development of the wind power industry. This paper focuses on the research of the economic and environment spillover effect of wind power industry.According to the results of the spillover effect measure, the paper searched for a scientific compensation mechanism. It has a strong theoretical and practical significance to the development of wind power industry in respect of making full and efficient use of the wind power resources, effective implementing the energy strategy and promoting regional economic coordinated development.
Firstly, on the basis of combing the the theoretical literatures, this paper clearly defines the concept of spillover effect, compensation mechanism and wind power industry. Through comparative analysis on the the wind power industry development in Gansu province with that on the national and global level, this paper states the reason to choice the research object.
Secondly, this paper systematically analyses the spillover effect mechanism from the inspects of production mechanism, conduction mechanism, absorption mechanism and reappear mechanism, discusses the influencing various factors and the way of influence, in order to longitudinally illustrate the spillover effect realization process.Then, establishes spillover system by three levels in order to horizontally illlustrate the economic, social and environment spillover effects in wind power industy.
Thirdly, this paper measures the provincial economic spillover effects by setting up the spatial model, the result shows that:nationally, the provincial economic spillover effects of wind power industry are universal and spatial:it is the reality basis to measure the spillover effects for the wind power industry in Gansu provincial; Overall, spatial spillover effects economic elasticity coefficient is small, the explanatory power of economic growth is not strong; By multiplying regression method to measure the spillover effect between Gansu and other provinces(cities), the results show obvious geographic distance decay; Wind power industry in Gansu province in the next five years and15years should be expanded unceasingly, and the provincial economic spillover effect generated from wind power delivery should be very significant.
Fourthly, there are three aspects of economic spillover effects of Wind power industry in Gansu:promoting the economic growth,transforming industrial structure and technological spillover. In terms of economic growth, agglomeration effect is greater than the spillover effect; there is a spacial economic spillover effects, when taking care of the value of wind capacity. In terms of industrial structure:wind power industry development is helpful to improve the internal structure of primary industry and tertiary industry, and to promote industrial structure advantage.However these has not fully transformed into industrial competitive advantage, yet for the second industry and the manufacturing, wind power industry not only lead to the optimization of industrial structure, but also promote the ascension of industry competitiveness. The development of wind power equipment manufacturing industry effectively improve manufacturing deviation share component, which fully shows that wind power equipment manufacturing industry produce a strong spillover effect on industrial structure. Relative to the spillover effects on the industrial structure of the national wind power installed capacity, the deviatoric component has the fastest growth,which effectively promotes the development of relevant industries.Tthere is positive spillover effects of the industrial structure of wind power installed capacity in Gansu province. In terms of the technology spillover effect, wind power industry has positive backward spillover effect, which suggests that there is a strong technology spillover effect in the downstream industry. According to the industrial division, there is a positive backward spillover effect on the first industry. There are forward spillover effect in the technical progress and backward spillover effect in the technical efficiency on the tertiary industry. There are negative forward spillover effect and positive backward spillover effect in total factor productivity and the technical progress on the secondary industry. There is a strong the spillover backward effect on the manufacturing industry.
Fifthly, The envionement spillover effects include the saving coal usage, lessening pollutant emission and reducing the damage to the ecological environment. There is significant positive environmental spillover effect.With the gradual improvement of utilization efficiency of the wind energy resource and the continuous expansion of wind power development, positive environment spillover effect gradually enhanced.The positive cross-regional environmental spillover effects is estimated from the perspective that power could be transmitted over distance. Results show that the cross-regional environmental spillover effect is very significant.The negative environmental spillover effects are measured with the aid of the theory of wind farm construction life cycle. Compared with wind power instead of coal and the reduce of pollutants discharge, the emissions of wind farm construction is not serious. Wind farms in Gansu province are arranged in the desert region and far away from the nature reserve, so there are no significant environmental damage such as soil and water loss, noise, radiation and the birds safety. In general, the positive environmental spillover effects is much greater than the negative environment spillover effects.
Finally, on the basis of reasonable estimating the spillover effects, this paper probes into compensation mechanism, explicites the the subject and object of compensation, and respectively proposes the approaches from the perspective of government, market and enterprise. The government compensation ways should include interregional compensation and interregional vertically compensation, making macroeconomic regulation and control of the government to be harmony with the interest coordination between local governments, in order that fair compensation could be adopted politically. Market compensation approaches focus on three aspects of compensation measures:price forming mechanism of the wind power, regional cooperation mechanisms and market financial support mechanism, so that fair compensation could be adopted from the perspective of market. As the microscopic main body of the compensation, enterprise should be adapted to enterprise cooperation, project compensation and intelligence and technology support and so as to realize mutually beneficial and win-win result between the wind power industry stakeholders. It is necessary to establish the long-term mechanism which includes the organizing, implementation, coordination and technical support in order to guarantee the effective implementation of the spillover effect compensation.
首先,在对国内外相关研究文献进行系统梳理的基础上,明确界定溢出效应、补偿机制、风电产业等相关概念,通过将甘肃风电产业发展置于全球、全国范围内进行比较分析,归纳总结甘肃风电产业发展现状和存在问题,指出关注甘肃风电产业溢出效应的必要性和建立补偿机制的迫切性,为后续研究提供理论支撑和现实基础。
第二,对溢出效应产生机理进行系统分析,从产生机理、传导机理、吸收机理和再现机理等环节探讨影响溢出效应的各种因素及其影响方式,从纵向上对溢出效应实现过程进行解析。横向剖面的分析则是从三个层面建立甘肃风电产业溢出效应体系：宏观层面,风电产业跨省域及省域内的经济、社会及环境的溢出效应体系；中观层面,风电产业在三次产业间溢出效应体系,进而形成产业结构溢出效应体系；微观层面,风电企业和相关上下游企业间技术溢出效应体系。
第三,建立甘肃风电产业跨省域经济溢出效应测度模型,对溢出效应进行测度。结果表明：在全国范围内,风电产业跨省域经济溢出效应具有普遍性和空间性；甘肃风电产业跨省域空间经济溢出效应弹性系数较小,对经济增长的解释力不强,分别作用于全国31省(市)经济溢出效应差距较大,且表现出明显的地理距离衰减性；甘肃风电产业在未来5年和15年间,风电远距离输送产生直接的跨省域经济溢出效应非常显著。
第四,甘肃风电产业省域内经济溢出效应表现为对经济增长的推动、产业结构变动及技术溢出三个方面。1.在经济增长方面：风电装备制造业的发展集聚效应大于溢出效应；风电装机容量存在着正向空间经济溢出效应；2.产业结构溢出效应方面：风电产业发展有助于提升第一产业和第三产业的内部结构,增强产业结构优势,但未转变为产业竞争优势,不仅带动第二产业及制造业产业结构的优化,而且还提升了产业竞争力；风电装备制造业有效提升制造业各偏离份额分量,对制造业的拉动作用非常显著,产生了较强的产业结构溢出效应；相对于全国风电装机容量产生的产业结构溢出效应,甘肃风电装机容量的各偏离分量增长速度最快,存在正向产业结构溢出效应。3.技术溢出方面：风电产业对整体产业存在积极的后向技术溢出效应,对第一产业产生了积极的后向溢出效应,对第三产业仅在技术进步维度存在前向技术溢出效应,在技术效率维度存在后向技术溢出效应,对第二产业前向技术溢出效应为负值,在全要素生产率和技术进步维度具有较强的后向技术溢出效应,对制造业产生了较强的后向溢出效应,是导致对第二产业后向溢出效应的根本原因。
第五,从风电替代煤电角度测度的正向环境溢出效应,包括节约煤炭使用量、减少煤炭使用而减少污染物排放、减少煤炭开采而减少生态环境破坏三个维度,正向环境溢出效应非常显著,随着风能资源利用效率的逐步提高和风电发展规模的不断扩大,溢出效应还将逐步增强；从甘肃风电外送角度测度的正向跨区域环境溢出效应亦非常显著；风电产业产生负向环境溢出效应,主要包括风电场建设周期内的能耗、污染物排放及对本区域生态环境破坏。考虑到风电场自身能源供应能力的不断提升,风电场能源回收率不断提高,能源回收期大幅缩短。相比于风电替代煤电而减少的污染物排放,风电场建设导致污染物排放量并不严重。甘肃风电场均布设于荒漠地区及非自然保护区,风电场建设导致的环境破坏不显著,未产生严重的水土流失、噪音、辐射及鸟类安全等方面的负向溢出。总之,甘肃风电产业发展产生的正向环境溢出效应远远大于负向环境溢出效应,对区域和跨区域环境改善都具有明显的带动作用。
最后,在对经济和环境溢出效应进行合理测度的基础上,探讨了甘肃风电产业溢出效应补偿机制。明确甘肃风电产业溢出效应补偿依据、补偿主客体及补偿途径。分别从政府、市场和企业三个补偿主体给出相应补偿途径和措施。政府补偿途径主要涉及区际纵向补偿和区际横向补偿,将政府宏观调控与地方政府间利益协调完美结合,在政策上实现对溢出效应的合理补偿；市场补偿途径主要着眼于风电价格形成机制、区域合作机制及市场金融支持等方面的补偿措施,从市场对资源配置角度实现对溢出效应的合理补偿；企业作为补偿的微观主体,通过企业合作、项目及智力与技术补偿、治理补偿等补偿措施实现企业间互利共赢,并给出了组织、实施、利益协调和技术支撑等方面的补偿长效机制。
Limited support of resources and environmental carrying capacity require human society should change the growth mode,however, to which transformation of energy foundation is fundamental. The development of wind power industry in Gansu Province has strategic importance of energy development, But currently, the wind power industry lacks the market competitiveness:it is inefficient in the using of wind energy resource,while wind power industry contains significant economic, social and environmental spillover effects. Many scholars have affirmed the spillover effects of the wind power industry, but succeeded in neither giving a reasonable measure of compensation mechanisms and systems, nor rationalizing the relationship among the distribution of benefits, which is the implicit constraints on the development of the wind power industry. This paper focuses on the research of the economic and environment spillover effect of wind power industry.According to the results of the spillover effect measure, the paper searched for a scientific compensation mechanism. It has a strong theoretical and practical significance to the development of wind power industry in respect of making full and efficient use of the wind power resources, effective implementing the energy strategy and promoting regional economic coordinated development.
Firstly, on the basis of combing the the theoretical literatures, this paper clearly defines the concept of spillover effect, compensation mechanism and wind power industry. Through comparative analysis on the the wind power industry development in Gansu province with that on the national and global level, this paper states the reason to choice the research object.
Secondly, this paper systematically analyses the spillover effect mechanism from the inspects of production mechanism, conduction mechanism, absorption mechanism and reappear mechanism, discusses the influencing various factors and the way of influence, in order to longitudinally illustrate the spillover effect realization process.Then, establishes spillover system by three levels in order to horizontally illlustrate the economic, social and environment spillover effects in wind power industy.
Thirdly, this paper measures the provincial economic spillover effects by setting up the spatial model, the result shows that:nationally, the provincial economic spillover effects of wind power industry are universal and spatial:it is the reality basis to measure the spillover effects for the wind power industry in Gansu provincial; Overall, spatial spillover effects economic elasticity coefficient is small, the explanatory power of economic growth is not strong; By multiplying regression method to measure the spillover effect between Gansu and other provinces(cities), the results show obvious geographic distance decay; Wind power industry in Gansu province in the next five years and15years should be expanded unceasingly, and the provincial economic spillover effect generated from wind power delivery should be very significant.
Fourthly, there are three aspects of economic spillover effects of Wind power industry in Gansu:promoting the economic growth,transforming industrial structure and technological spillover. In terms of economic growth, agglomeration effect is greater than the spillover effect; there is a spacial economic spillover effects, when taking care of the value of wind capacity. In terms of industrial structure:wind power industry development is helpful to improve the internal structure of primary industry and tertiary industry, and to promote industrial structure advantage.However these has not fully transformed into industrial competitive advantage, yet for the second industry and the manufacturing, wind power industry not only lead to the optimization of industrial structure, but also promote the ascension of industry competitiveness. The development of wind power equipment manufacturing industry effectively improve manufacturing deviation share component, which fully shows that wind power equipment manufacturing industry produce a strong spillover effect on industrial structure. Relative to the spillover effects on the industrial structure of the national wind power installed capacity, the deviatoric component has the fastest growth,which effectively promotes the development of relevant industries.Tthere is positive spillover effects of the industrial structure of wind power installed capacity in Gansu province. In terms of the technology spillover effect, wind power industry has positive backward spillover effect, which suggests that there is a strong technology spillover effect in the downstream industry. According to the industrial division, there is a positive backward spillover effect on the first industry. There are forward spillover effect in the technical progress and backward spillover effect in the technical efficiency on the tertiary industry. There are negative forward spillover effect and positive backward spillover effect in total factor productivity and the technical progress on the secondary industry. There is a strong the spillover backward effect on the manufacturing industry.
Fifthly, The envionement spillover effects include the saving coal usage, lessening pollutant emission and reducing the damage to the ecological environment. There is significant positive environmental spillover effect.With the gradual improvement of utilization efficiency of the wind energy resource and the continuous expansion of wind power development, positive environment spillover effect gradually enhanced.The positive cross-regional environmental spillover effects is estimated from the perspective that power could be transmitted over distance. Results show that the cross-regional environmental spillover effect is very significant.The negative environmental spillover effects are measured with the aid of the theory of wind farm construction life cycle. Compared with wind power instead of coal and the reduce of pollutants discharge, the emissions of wind farm construction is not serious. Wind farms in Gansu province are arranged in the desert region and far away from the nature reserve, so there are no significant environmental damage such as soil and water loss, noise, radiation and the birds safety. In general, the positive environmental spillover effects is much greater than the negative environment spillover effects.
Finally, on the basis of reasonable estimating the spillover effects, this paper probes into compensation mechanism, explicites the the subject and object of compensation, and respectively proposes the approaches from the perspective of government, market and enterprise. The government compensation ways should include interregional compensation and interregional vertically compensation, making macroeconomic regulation and control of the government to be harmony with the interest coordination between local governments, in order that fair compensation could be adopted politically. Market compensation approaches focus on three aspects of compensation measures:price forming mechanism of the wind power, regional cooperation mechanisms and market financial support mechanism, so that fair compensation could be adopted from the perspective of market. As the microscopic main body of the compensation, enterprise should be adapted to enterprise cooperation, project compensation and intelligence and technology support and so as to realize mutually beneficial and win-win result between the wind power industry stakeholders. It is necessary to establish the long-term mechanism which includes the organizing, implementation, coordination and technical support in order to guarantee the effective implementation of the spillover effect compensation.
引文
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