区域社会经济系统脆弱性综合评价及应用研究
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摘要
随着全球人口的不断增长以及社会经济的快速发展，生存环境及社会经济系统的脆弱性问题也随之凸显出来，它严重影响到生态和社会经济的可持续发展。脆弱性逐渐成为全球环境变化与如何实现可持续性发展问题研究的热点和科学前沿领域之一。随着社会经济发展，脆弱性的概念不仅被应用在自然灾害、生态环境、地下水等领域，而且脆弱性的应用领域在不断扩大。
首先，本文系统阐述了区域社会经济系统脆弱性研究的背景、目的和意义，分析了国内外脆弱性的研究现状，总结了学者对脆弱性这一概念的不同看法及研究中所采用的不同方法，全面系统地对脆弱性的研究现状作出评述。
其次，本文定义区域社会经济系统脆弱性的概念，提出了脆弱性综合评价指标体系建立的原则。在此原则基础上，构建了区域社会经济系统脆弱性综合评价指标体系，该体系由主要成因指标和结果表现指标两个一级指标构成。其中主要成因指标包含资源生态成因指标、人口成因指标和环境污染成因指标三个二级指标；结果表现指标包含经济结果指标、社会结果指标和自然灾害结果指标三个二级指标，每个二级指标又分别包括若干三级指标。同时根据相关标准，确定所有三级指标的标准值。
第三，依据不同级别指标特点对各级指标采用不同的方法确定权重，对二级指标采用层次分析法确定权重，并对其进行一致性检验。针对三级指标数较多且所有原始信息直接来源于客观环境这一特点，采用熵值法确定三级指标的权重，有效地降低了调研时人为因素带来的主观性。
第四，按照评价要求所需划分灰类，引进模糊数学的隶属函数代替白化权函数，对灰色聚类分析法进行了改进。在此基础上，构建了适合区域社会经济系统脆弱性综合评价模型，使区域社会经济系统脆弱性综合评价客观、准确。
第五，运用典型相关分析法，对河北省区域经济系统脆弱性主要成因和结果表现指标间关联关系进行分析，从不同角度定量给出各二级指标在不同系统中的作用程度。选择改进的BP神经网络方法，定量度量主要成因中各指标的影响力和结果表现中各指标的感应度，为研究社会经济系统脆弱性两个一级指标间的关系关联提供新的方法。
第六，根据各指标序列散点图形态，针对不同指标分别采用直线回归方程、曲线回归方程及神经网络法，对河北省区域社会经济系统脆弱性综合评价指标体系中各三级指标未来值进行预测，根据预测结果对河北省区域社会经济系统脆弱性进行综合评价。
最后，本文根据对河北省经济系统脆弱性进行评价的结果及预测的数据，从资源生态、人口、环境污染、经济、社会及防灾等诸多方面指出其存在的问题，给出相应建议性的改进措施，为降低河北省社会经济系统脆弱性提供理论支持。
With the rapid growth of global population and the development of socio-economy,the vulnerability of living environment and socio-economic system also becomesprominent. It has seriously affected the ecology and the sustainable development of thesocio-economic system.The vulnerability is becoming a hot issue and one of thescientific frontiers on global environmental change and how to achieve sustainabledevelopment. With the socio-economic development, the concept of vulnerability is notonly applied in the field of natural disasters, ecological environment, groundwater, butalso used in other areas.
First, the background and purpose and significance of the regional socio-economicvulnerability are systematically given. Researches of vulnerability both domestic andabroad are summarized and the different views and researching methods on vulnerabilityare analyzed. A comprehensive and systematic comment of vulnerability research statusis made.
Secondly, the concept of vulnerability of the regional socio-economic system andthe principles of synthetic evaluation indicator system of the regional socio-economicvulnerability is given. On the basis of the principles, a synthetic evaluating system of theregional social and economic is established. The system includes two level-I indicatorswhich refer to the main causing indicators and the outcome performance indicators. Themain causing indicators include the resource ecological causing index, the populationcausing index and the environmental pollution causing index. The outcome performanceindex includes the economic outcome index, social outcome index and natural disasteroutcome index. There are a number of level-III indicators respectively in each type ofLevel-II indicators. In accordance with the relevant standards, the standard index’s valuesfor all the Level–III indicators are calculated.
Thirdly, according to the characteristics of the different levels of indicators, differentapproaches are adopted to determine the weights. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)has been used in determining the weights of the Level-II indicators and the consistency test has been made. Considering that the Level-II indicators are more，and all the originalinformation is from the objective environment directly, the entropy method is adopted indetermining the weights for the Level-II indicators. It can effectively reduce thesubjectivity of the research caused by human factors by using these methods.
Fourthly, with the classified gray cluster according to the need of evaluationrequirement, the improved Gray cluster analysis method and the membership function offuzzy mathematics, a synthetic evaluation model was conducted on the regionalsocio-economic vulnerability system. It may make the regional socio-economicvulnerability system evaluation objective and correct.
Fifthly, by using the Canonical Correlation Analysis，the relationships between theindicators of main causing indicators and outcome performance of regionalsocio-economic system vulnerability in Hebei Province are analyzed. The effectingdegrees of level-II indicators in different systems are quantitatively given from differentperspectivies. The improved BP neural network is adopted quantitative to measure theinfluence of the main causing indicators and the sensitivity of outcome performanceindicators so as to provide a new method to research the relationships between the twoLevel-I indicators of the regional socio-economic system.
Sixthly, according to the form of the sequence scatter plot morphology, the linerregression equations, the curve regression equations and the neural network method hasbeen adopted respectively to forecast the future value of the vulnerability of eachLevel-III indicators of Hebei regional socio-economic comprehensive evaluation system.Based on the forecasting results, the vulnerability of the socio-economic system of HebeiProvince is comprehensive evaluated.
Lastly, according to the evaluated results and the forecasting data of economicsystem vulnerability in Hebei Province, some existing problems are pointed out from theperspectivies of resource ecology, population, environment pollution, economy, society，and disaster prevention. The relevant suggestions and the theoretical supports have beengiven for solving the problems and to reduce the socio-economic system vulnerability inHebei Province.
首先，本文系统阐述了区域社会经济系统脆弱性研究的背景、目的和意义，分析了国内外脆弱性的研究现状，总结了学者对脆弱性这一概念的不同看法及研究中所采用的不同方法，全面系统地对脆弱性的研究现状作出评述。
其次，本文定义区域社会经济系统脆弱性的概念，提出了脆弱性综合评价指标体系建立的原则。在此原则基础上，构建了区域社会经济系统脆弱性综合评价指标体系，该体系由主要成因指标和结果表现指标两个一级指标构成。其中主要成因指标包含资源生态成因指标、人口成因指标和环境污染成因指标三个二级指标；结果表现指标包含经济结果指标、社会结果指标和自然灾害结果指标三个二级指标，每个二级指标又分别包括若干三级指标。同时根据相关标准，确定所有三级指标的标准值。
第三，依据不同级别指标特点对各级指标采用不同的方法确定权重，对二级指标采用层次分析法确定权重，并对其进行一致性检验。针对三级指标数较多且所有原始信息直接来源于客观环境这一特点，采用熵值法确定三级指标的权重，有效地降低了调研时人为因素带来的主观性。
第四，按照评价要求所需划分灰类，引进模糊数学的隶属函数代替白化权函数，对灰色聚类分析法进行了改进。在此基础上，构建了适合区域社会经济系统脆弱性综合评价模型，使区域社会经济系统脆弱性综合评价客观、准确。
第五，运用典型相关分析法，对河北省区域经济系统脆弱性主要成因和结果表现指标间关联关系进行分析，从不同角度定量给出各二级指标在不同系统中的作用程度。选择改进的BP神经网络方法，定量度量主要成因中各指标的影响力和结果表现中各指标的感应度，为研究社会经济系统脆弱性两个一级指标间的关系关联提供新的方法。
第六，根据各指标序列散点图形态，针对不同指标分别采用直线回归方程、曲线回归方程及神经网络法，对河北省区域社会经济系统脆弱性综合评价指标体系中各三级指标未来值进行预测，根据预测结果对河北省区域社会经济系统脆弱性进行综合评价。
最后，本文根据对河北省经济系统脆弱性进行评价的结果及预测的数据，从资源生态、人口、环境污染、经济、社会及防灾等诸多方面指出其存在的问题，给出相应建议性的改进措施，为降低河北省社会经济系统脆弱性提供理论支持。
With the rapid growth of global population and the development of socio-economy,the vulnerability of living environment and socio-economic system also becomesprominent. It has seriously affected the ecology and the sustainable development of thesocio-economic system.The vulnerability is becoming a hot issue and one of thescientific frontiers on global environmental change and how to achieve sustainabledevelopment. With the socio-economic development, the concept of vulnerability is notonly applied in the field of natural disasters, ecological environment, groundwater, butalso used in other areas.
First, the background and purpose and significance of the regional socio-economicvulnerability are systematically given. Researches of vulnerability both domestic andabroad are summarized and the different views and researching methods on vulnerabilityare analyzed. A comprehensive and systematic comment of vulnerability research statusis made.
Secondly, the concept of vulnerability of the regional socio-economic system andthe principles of synthetic evaluation indicator system of the regional socio-economicvulnerability is given. On the basis of the principles, a synthetic evaluating system of theregional social and economic is established. The system includes two level-I indicatorswhich refer to the main causing indicators and the outcome performance indicators. Themain causing indicators include the resource ecological causing index, the populationcausing index and the environmental pollution causing index. The outcome performanceindex includes the economic outcome index, social outcome index and natural disasteroutcome index. There are a number of level-III indicators respectively in each type ofLevel-II indicators. In accordance with the relevant standards, the standard index’s valuesfor all the Level–III indicators are calculated.
Thirdly, according to the characteristics of the different levels of indicators, differentapproaches are adopted to determine the weights. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)has been used in determining the weights of the Level-II indicators and the consistency test has been made. Considering that the Level-II indicators are more，and all the originalinformation is from the objective environment directly, the entropy method is adopted indetermining the weights for the Level-II indicators. It can effectively reduce thesubjectivity of the research caused by human factors by using these methods.
Fourthly, with the classified gray cluster according to the need of evaluationrequirement, the improved Gray cluster analysis method and the membership function offuzzy mathematics, a synthetic evaluation model was conducted on the regionalsocio-economic vulnerability system. It may make the regional socio-economicvulnerability system evaluation objective and correct.
Fifthly, by using the Canonical Correlation Analysis，the relationships between theindicators of main causing indicators and outcome performance of regionalsocio-economic system vulnerability in Hebei Province are analyzed. The effectingdegrees of level-II indicators in different systems are quantitatively given from differentperspectivies. The improved BP neural network is adopted quantitative to measure theinfluence of the main causing indicators and the sensitivity of outcome performanceindicators so as to provide a new method to research the relationships between the twoLevel-I indicators of the regional socio-economic system.
Sixthly, according to the form of the sequence scatter plot morphology, the linerregression equations, the curve regression equations and the neural network method hasbeen adopted respectively to forecast the future value of the vulnerability of eachLevel-III indicators of Hebei regional socio-economic comprehensive evaluation system.Based on the forecasting results, the vulnerability of the socio-economic system of HebeiProvince is comprehensive evaluated.
Lastly, according to the evaluated results and the forecasting data of economicsystem vulnerability in Hebei Province, some existing problems are pointed out from theperspectivies of resource ecology, population, environment pollution, economy, society，and disaster prevention. The relevant suggestions and the theoretical supports have beengiven for solving the problems and to reduce the socio-economic system vulnerability inHebei Province.
引文
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