江汉平原耕地质量与粮食生产能力时空耦合研究
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摘要
耕地是人类赖以生存和发展的基本资源,它是指由自然土壤发育而成并且处于适宜作物生长、发育、成熟的自然环境里,能够种植农作物的田地。我国面临人均耕地少,耕地质量差,耕地退化严重,后备耕地资源严重不足,耕地减少态势加剧等严重问题。预计未来我国人口将以每年1000万的速度增长,2030年有可能达到16亿人口；生活水平和城市化水平的提高,将持续拉动粮食需求的增长,到2030年,我国粮食需求将达到6.17亿吨,粮食总产需要在这个基础上增长20%以上。然而城市化与基础设施建设对耕地的侵占越来越多,土壤污染面积大范围扩大,农民耕种粮食意愿持续减退等问题却日益凸显,因此,保障耕地资源与粮食安全对于满足人类基本生存与发展尤为关键。特别是现今面对如此复杂的耕地问题,耕地资源保护不能再仅仅是停留在数量保护层面,更应该向耕地质量管护与生态保护并重升级。为了实现这一转变并提出合理的耕地资源管护与粮食增产建议,本研究首先了解区域耕地数量与质量以及粮食生产能力的时序演变规律与空间分异特征,其次要分别掌握耕地数量、质量和粮食生产能力时空演变的驱动机制,最后要剖析耕地数量、质量与粮食生产能力时空耦合的过程机理。
本文选择江汉平原作为研究区。江汉平原位于湖北省中南部,由长江与汉江常年冲积而成,区域内大小湖泊星罗棋布,约有300多个,是典型的以耕地-湖泊为主的生态系统。区内河网纵横、湖泊众多、土壤肥沃、降水充沛、光热充足,粮食生产条件优异,农业耕作以一年两熟和一年三熟为主,以粮、棉、油、麻、猪、禽、水产品为主的农业经济区域优势显著,是我国重要的农业生产基地之一,也是各项建设占用耕地最多最快的地区,土地利用类型转变以耕地-湖泊-建设用地相互转换为主,区域耕地质量与粮食生产能力时空耦合机理特征具有典型性。
本文的主要内容共分为8章：
第一章为绪论。阐明研究意义；从国内外有关耕地质量的界定与研究,耕地数量质量空间变化与粮食生产能力变化研究进展,耕地质量与粮食生产能力时空耦合研究现状等大的方面入手展开研究综述。
第二章为研究方案。简述研究目的,研究方法,研究内容和拟解决的关键问题,并确立研究技术路线；研究基于交叉学科背景和计量地理学、3S技术、数理统计与计算机技术等多种方法,对江汉平原30年来耕地数量、质量时空变化与粮食生产能力演变与空间分异响应开展深入研究。
第三章为指标体系构建。界定研究内涵,构建指标体系与度量标准；本章参阅国内外文献并依据研究目的和研究区域特点界定耕地质量与粮食生产能力的内涵,构建指标体系并确立评价标准。
第四章为江汉平原耕地数量时空演变。分析江汉平原耕地数量时空演变规律与驱动机制；本章主要从耕地资源数量时序变化与空间格局演变两个方面入手,遵循统计年鉴数据和遥感土地利用类型图两条研究主线,分别对江汉平原耕地数量、人均耕地、耕地变化区域差异的时序变化,土地利用图谱、土地利用类型转移矩阵、耕地流入与转出的空间分布特征与演变规律,以及耕地重心的移动规律、耕地景观格局与县域耕地空间格局演变做了深入分析。最后对江汉平原耕地资源数量时空演变的驱动机制进行了细致研究。研究表明：1980-2010年江汉平原耕地数量和人均耕地数量双下降,耕地重心向西移动；在1980-1990年间耕地-水域与耕地-林地的转换较为频繁,1990-2000年水域-耕地与建设用地-耕地之间的转换为主要转换类型,2000-2010年耕地与建设用地的转换占据主导；县域耕地动态活跃度由1980至2010年逐步从西部区域向东部区域转移;耕地图斑破碎化,形状不规则化是该阶段耕地景观变化的主要特征,表明人类活动对耕地变化的干预度不断加强。
第五章为江汉平原耕地质量时空演变。分析江汉平原耕地质量时空演变规律与驱动机制；本章主要对影响江汉平原耕地质量的主要因子的变化特征做了探索研究,并依据《农用地分等规程》和“耕地质量动态监测中部试点”耕地质量评价指标体系划分耕地等别。最后对耕地质量的时空演变规律及其驱动机制进行了深入研究。研究表明：1980-1990a到1990-2000a耕地质量提升较快,2000-2010a耕地质量提升较慢,甚至局部出现质量衰退现象；优等质量耕地重心向东部和南部集中,劣等耕地重心向西部和北部缓慢推移；“东高西低,南优北劣”的耕地质量空间格局特征愈加明显。
第六章为江汉平原粮食生产能力时空演变。分析江汉平原粮食生产能力时空演变规律与驱动机制：首先对粮食现实生产能力,如粮食产量、粮食单产、人均粮食产量、复种指数、粮食生产集中度的时序变化做初步分析,然后对江汉平原各级粮食潜在生产力进行估算,接着运用粮食生产重心模型、ESDA空间数据探索分析和因子分析等方法对江汉平原粮食生产能力空间格局演变展开研究,并依据逐日气象数据对江汉平原区域内的种植界限变动进行了探索性分析,最后在上述研究基础上展开江汉平原粮食生产能力时空演变主要驱动力分析。研究表明：江汉平原粮食产量呈现“低产-高产-降产-增产”的变化规律,产量空间集聚特征显著,产量重心的移动轨迹趋势为“东进南移”；粮食产量与粮食播面单产不存在空间协调性,这主要是由于区域种植结构与复种指数差异所致；复种指数先高后低,整体增加,在1997年达到阶段最高点,复种指数高的县(市)除云梦县和应城市外-般分布在区域南方和西部,与热量分布具备较好的空间-致性；产能潜力估算显示东部和南部区域是未来主要增产区域；粮食承载力空间格局变化上呈现“西强东弱”到“西强东弱,南强北弱”再到“东-西南-南半角强,东北角弱”的演化态势,粮食承载力重心沿着“西部-西南-南部”的运行轨迹运动；气候变暖导致种植一级区界限向北部和西部扩张,双季稻种植北界北移。
第七章为江汉平原耕地质量与粮食生产能力时空耦合研究。运用SLM和SEM等空间计量回归模型和EsDA数据探索分析方法探究耕地质量因子与粮食产量,粮食可持续生产能力与有关经济因子的时空相关性；构建耕地与粮食生产重心拟合模型；分析耕地与粮食产量敏感度空间分异规律；研究农业劳动力与耕地以及耕地等别变化与粮食产量的时空耦合演变。最后综合分析耕地数量与质量变化对粮食生产能力的影响,并从耕地可持续利用、农业政策与推广、区域主体功能定位三个方面给出耕地保护建议。研究表明：江汉平原有效土层厚度和土壤质地改进对产量提升效果最显著,排水条件改进空间不大；优等耕地质量重心和粮食产量重心东进南移,耕地数量重心西进北移,逆向结构变化为今后区域粮食增产埋下隐患；粮食增产对耕地数量的依赖度不断提升；劳耕耦合类型整体空间演变格局为“衰退型-偏增长型-增长型”,劳-耕增长型的县(市)逐步扩大,分布重心由西部向东部转移。
第八章为结论与创新点。归纳与总结本文的主要结论与创新点。
The arable land is the fundamental resource for human survival and development. It is natural environment which developed from natural soil and is suitable for crop growth, development and mature. Facing our country, there are many exacerbated serious problems, such as less per capita arable land, poor quality of cultivated land, serious land degradation, a big shortage of cropland resources and gradual reduction of arable land trend and so on. In China, the future population is expected to grow at a rate of10million a year, in2030, is likely to reach1.6billion people. Improvement of living standards and the level of urbanization will continue to pull the food demand growth.By2030; grain demand will reach617million tons in China meanwhile grain output needs to increase by more than20%on this basis. However, more and more encroachment on cultivated land for urbanization and infrastructure construction that lead to large area of soil contamination extends and farmer farming food wishes continued decline. Therefore, the protection of cultivated land resources and food security is particularly critical to meet basic human survival and development demand. In particular now faced with such a complex problem of cultivated land, protection of cultivated land does not rest simply on the number, but also to the cultivated land quality management and environmental protection, and promotion. In order to achieve this transformation and propose a reasonable amount of arable land resources management and protection of grain production proposals. First, we should understand the regional arable land quantity and quality as well as the temporal evolution of grain production capacity and spatial differentiation characteristics. Second, respectively grasp farmland quantity, quality and food production capacity space-time evolution of the drive mechanism. Finally, we should analyze the process of spatio-temporal coupling mechanism of the quantity and quality of cultivated land and grain production capacity.
This article selects Jianghan Plain as the study area. Jianghan Plain is located in south-central of Hubei Province. It is made by the Yangtze River and Hanjiang river perennial alluvial. Jianghan Plain is a typical Farmland-Lake Ecosystem which has more than300lakes in it. In this region, rivers are crisscrossed. Also, there are numerous lakes, fertile soil, abundant rainfall, adequate light and heat, excellent conditions for food production. Jianghan Plain is not only one of the important agricultural production bases in China, but also the fastest of cultivated land occupied by construction. The main change in land-use types is arable land-lakes-construction conversion. It is typical that the characteristics of spatio-temporal coupling mechanism of regional grain production capacity and quality of cultivated land.
This paper is divided into eight chapters:
Chapter one is an introduction. This chapter clarifies research significance. Then make a review of related articles from at home and abroad based on inspecting definition and research of cultivated land quality, studying spatial changes of cultivated land quality and progress of spatio-temporal coupling relationship between changes of grain production capacity and quality of cultivated land.
Chapter two is the research programs. In this chapter, the author makes a brief description of study objectives and research methods, and also proposes to solve the key issues, and establishes research techniques. The research based on a variety of methods such as cross-disciplinary background and quantitative geography,3S technology, mathematical statistics and computer technology to carry out in-depth research of the spatial variation response of the amount and quality of cultivated land and grain production capacity evolution in Jianghan Plain for30years.
Chapter three is the establishment index system. This chapter mainly describes the definition on the connotation and construction of indicator system and measurement standards. The index system and measurement standards are selected based on research purpose and studies on regional characteristics to make a definition of the quality of cultivated land and grain productivity.
Chapter four is the spatio-temporal evolution of the quantity of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. This chapter analyses driving mechanism of cultivated land spatio-temporal evolution in Jianghan Plain. This chapter focuses on evolving two-pronged approach to timing variations and spatial pattern of cultivated land quantity. Following two main line:the Statistical Yearbook data and remote sensing study on the land utilization types, then, respectively makes an in-depth analysis of the cultivated land in Jianghan Plain including regional differences in per capita arable land, cultivated land use change in timing change, Atlas of land use, land-use transition matrices, flows into and out of cultivated land spatial distribution characteristics and evolution, as well as potential changes of cultivated land, agricultural land law of Center of gravity, farmland landscape pattern and the evolution of spatial pattern of cultivated land at county. Finally it makes careful study on spatio-temporal change of the driving mechanism of the quantity of cultivated land resource in Jianghan Plain. Studies have shown that both the amount of cultivated land and the amount of cultivated land per capita decline during1980-2010in Jianghan Plain, also the center gravity of cultivated land moves westwards. More frequent in1980and1990, the conversion of arable land-waters and farmland-woodland are shown. During1990-2000, Waters-farmland and construction land-farmland conversion is the main type of conversion. During2000to2010, the conversion of arable land and construction land is the dominant type of conversion. Gradually from1980to2010, county land dynamically active degrees from the western regions to the eastern region. The main characteristics of the stage arable landscape changes are the fragmentation of cultivated land polygons and the irregular shapes that show human activities intervention on the change of Cultivated Land continue to strengthen.
Chapter five is the spatio-temporal evolution of the quality of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. This chapter analyses quality spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. It primarily explores on main factors variation of affecting the quality of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. And the author divided into arable farmland quality evaluation index system in accordance with the Regulations of Farmland Grading and "Dynamic monitoring of cultivated land quality in Central pilot". At last, spatio-temporal evolution and its driving mechanism of the quality of cultivated land has been studied deeply. Studies have shown:the two periods1980-1990and1990-2000, the quality of arable land enhance rapidly. From2000to2010, the quality farmland enhance slowly, even with the local quality recession. The superior quality farmland is concentrated to the east and south meanwhile the center gravity the inferior farmland slowly transfers to the west and north."High in the East and low in the west, south superior and north inferior" this spatial pattern of quality of arable land becomes more and more obvious.
Chapter six is the spatio-temporal evolution of Grain production capacity in Jianghan Plain. This chapter analyzes the space-time evolution and driving mechanism of Jianghan Plain grain production capacity. First, it makes a preliminary analysis of the food reality production capacity, such as food production, grain yields, per capita food production, multiple cropping indexes, and food production concentration timing variations. Then it estimates of potential productivity levels of food in Jianghan Plain. By using gravity models, ESDA spatial exploratory data analysis of grain production and the method of factor analysis, author conducts a study on evolution of spatial pattern of grain production in Jianghan Plain. Finally, author makes exploratory studies on plant boundary changes based on Jianghan Plain region daily meteorological data. On the basis of the above study, author expands the analysis of main driving forces of the grain production capacity space-time evolution in Jianghan Plain. The results show that:the variation of Jianghan Plain food production presents as "low yield-high yield-increased yield-declined yield" the spatial agglomeration characteristics are shown significantly, the yield movement trajectory of the center of gravity trend is "Move to east, transfer to south." Grain yield and grain sown area yields spatial coordination does not exist; this is mainly due to the differences of the regional planting structure with multiple cropping index. Cropping index shows a trend as first high then low, but the overall increase. The highest point of the stage reached in1997. The multiple of counties (cities) are disturbed in the south and west area, except Yunmeng county and Yingcheng city. These cities general cropping index distributions have a good consistency with heat distribution. The capacity potential estimates show that the eastern and southern regions is the future major increase area; the grain bearing capacity change of spatial pattern presents trend as the "west superior than east" to "the west superior than east, the south superior than north" to "East-South-West-southern half point stronger, northeast corner of weak" evolution of the situation. Food bearing capacity of the center of gravity along the trajectory of the West-Southwest-Southern movement; the warming lead to planting area boundaries advancing to the north and west, as well as double-crop rice planting northern boundary advancing to northward.
Chapter seven is the study on the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between food production capacity and quality of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. With the support of SLM and SEM spatial econometric regression model and ESDA data, author studies the analysis methods to explore the farmland quality factor with food production, spatial correlation between sustainable grain production capacity and relevant economic factors. This chapter also constructs a fitting model of cultivated land and food production center and analyzes of the spatial distribution of sensitivity of cultivated land and food production. Meanwhile, author studies on the spatio-temporal evolution of agricultural labor force and change of cultivated land and grain yield. Finally, it makes a comprehensive analysis on impact of the change of cultivated land quantity and quality on grain production. Author from three areas:the sustainable use of cultivated land, agricultural policy and promotion, the region-body functional position to make recommendations of cultivated land protection. The empirical result shows that the improvement of effective thickness of soil layer and soil in Jianghan Plain significantly improve the yield, however, drainage conditions have little improve space. Excellence cultivated land is in east and the focus of the quality of cultivated land and food production center of gravity move to south, the focus of cultivated land moves to northwestwards. Reverse structural changes for the future regional grain production planted hides danger. The rising of grain output dependence on the amount of cultivated land more and more significant. The pattern of labor farming coupling type space evolution is the "recession-partial growth-growth", the pattern of labor-farming growth counties (cities) expands gradually, the distribution center of gravity transfers from the western to the eastern part.
Chapter eight is the conclusions and innovations. In this chapter, the main conclusions and the innovative points are summarized
本文选择江汉平原作为研究区。江汉平原位于湖北省中南部,由长江与汉江常年冲积而成,区域内大小湖泊星罗棋布,约有300多个,是典型的以耕地-湖泊为主的生态系统。区内河网纵横、湖泊众多、土壤肥沃、降水充沛、光热充足,粮食生产条件优异,农业耕作以一年两熟和一年三熟为主,以粮、棉、油、麻、猪、禽、水产品为主的农业经济区域优势显著,是我国重要的农业生产基地之一,也是各项建设占用耕地最多最快的地区,土地利用类型转变以耕地-湖泊-建设用地相互转换为主,区域耕地质量与粮食生产能力时空耦合机理特征具有典型性。
本文的主要内容共分为8章：
第一章为绪论。阐明研究意义；从国内外有关耕地质量的界定与研究,耕地数量质量空间变化与粮食生产能力变化研究进展,耕地质量与粮食生产能力时空耦合研究现状等大的方面入手展开研究综述。
第二章为研究方案。简述研究目的,研究方法,研究内容和拟解决的关键问题,并确立研究技术路线；研究基于交叉学科背景和计量地理学、3S技术、数理统计与计算机技术等多种方法,对江汉平原30年来耕地数量、质量时空变化与粮食生产能力演变与空间分异响应开展深入研究。
第三章为指标体系构建。界定研究内涵,构建指标体系与度量标准；本章参阅国内外文献并依据研究目的和研究区域特点界定耕地质量与粮食生产能力的内涵,构建指标体系并确立评价标准。
第四章为江汉平原耕地数量时空演变。分析江汉平原耕地数量时空演变规律与驱动机制；本章主要从耕地资源数量时序变化与空间格局演变两个方面入手,遵循统计年鉴数据和遥感土地利用类型图两条研究主线,分别对江汉平原耕地数量、人均耕地、耕地变化区域差异的时序变化,土地利用图谱、土地利用类型转移矩阵、耕地流入与转出的空间分布特征与演变规律,以及耕地重心的移动规律、耕地景观格局与县域耕地空间格局演变做了深入分析。最后对江汉平原耕地资源数量时空演变的驱动机制进行了细致研究。研究表明：1980-2010年江汉平原耕地数量和人均耕地数量双下降,耕地重心向西移动；在1980-1990年间耕地-水域与耕地-林地的转换较为频繁,1990-2000年水域-耕地与建设用地-耕地之间的转换为主要转换类型,2000-2010年耕地与建设用地的转换占据主导；县域耕地动态活跃度由1980至2010年逐步从西部区域向东部区域转移;耕地图斑破碎化,形状不规则化是该阶段耕地景观变化的主要特征,表明人类活动对耕地变化的干预度不断加强。
第五章为江汉平原耕地质量时空演变。分析江汉平原耕地质量时空演变规律与驱动机制；本章主要对影响江汉平原耕地质量的主要因子的变化特征做了探索研究,并依据《农用地分等规程》和“耕地质量动态监测中部试点”耕地质量评价指标体系划分耕地等别。最后对耕地质量的时空演变规律及其驱动机制进行了深入研究。研究表明：1980-1990a到1990-2000a耕地质量提升较快,2000-2010a耕地质量提升较慢,甚至局部出现质量衰退现象；优等质量耕地重心向东部和南部集中,劣等耕地重心向西部和北部缓慢推移；“东高西低,南优北劣”的耕地质量空间格局特征愈加明显。
第六章为江汉平原粮食生产能力时空演变。分析江汉平原粮食生产能力时空演变规律与驱动机制：首先对粮食现实生产能力,如粮食产量、粮食单产、人均粮食产量、复种指数、粮食生产集中度的时序变化做初步分析,然后对江汉平原各级粮食潜在生产力进行估算,接着运用粮食生产重心模型、ESDA空间数据探索分析和因子分析等方法对江汉平原粮食生产能力空间格局演变展开研究,并依据逐日气象数据对江汉平原区域内的种植界限变动进行了探索性分析,最后在上述研究基础上展开江汉平原粮食生产能力时空演变主要驱动力分析。研究表明：江汉平原粮食产量呈现“低产-高产-降产-增产”的变化规律,产量空间集聚特征显著,产量重心的移动轨迹趋势为“东进南移”；粮食产量与粮食播面单产不存在空间协调性,这主要是由于区域种植结构与复种指数差异所致；复种指数先高后低,整体增加,在1997年达到阶段最高点,复种指数高的县(市)除云梦县和应城市外-般分布在区域南方和西部,与热量分布具备较好的空间-致性；产能潜力估算显示东部和南部区域是未来主要增产区域；粮食承载力空间格局变化上呈现“西强东弱”到“西强东弱,南强北弱”再到“东-西南-南半角强,东北角弱”的演化态势,粮食承载力重心沿着“西部-西南-南部”的运行轨迹运动；气候变暖导致种植一级区界限向北部和西部扩张,双季稻种植北界北移。
第七章为江汉平原耕地质量与粮食生产能力时空耦合研究。运用SLM和SEM等空间计量回归模型和EsDA数据探索分析方法探究耕地质量因子与粮食产量,粮食可持续生产能力与有关经济因子的时空相关性；构建耕地与粮食生产重心拟合模型；分析耕地与粮食产量敏感度空间分异规律；研究农业劳动力与耕地以及耕地等别变化与粮食产量的时空耦合演变。最后综合分析耕地数量与质量变化对粮食生产能力的影响,并从耕地可持续利用、农业政策与推广、区域主体功能定位三个方面给出耕地保护建议。研究表明：江汉平原有效土层厚度和土壤质地改进对产量提升效果最显著,排水条件改进空间不大；优等耕地质量重心和粮食产量重心东进南移,耕地数量重心西进北移,逆向结构变化为今后区域粮食增产埋下隐患；粮食增产对耕地数量的依赖度不断提升；劳耕耦合类型整体空间演变格局为“衰退型-偏增长型-增长型”,劳-耕增长型的县(市)逐步扩大,分布重心由西部向东部转移。
第八章为结论与创新点。归纳与总结本文的主要结论与创新点。
The arable land is the fundamental resource for human survival and development. It is natural environment which developed from natural soil and is suitable for crop growth, development and mature. Facing our country, there are many exacerbated serious problems, such as less per capita arable land, poor quality of cultivated land, serious land degradation, a big shortage of cropland resources and gradual reduction of arable land trend and so on. In China, the future population is expected to grow at a rate of10million a year, in2030, is likely to reach1.6billion people. Improvement of living standards and the level of urbanization will continue to pull the food demand growth.By2030; grain demand will reach617million tons in China meanwhile grain output needs to increase by more than20%on this basis. However, more and more encroachment on cultivated land for urbanization and infrastructure construction that lead to large area of soil contamination extends and farmer farming food wishes continued decline. Therefore, the protection of cultivated land resources and food security is particularly critical to meet basic human survival and development demand. In particular now faced with such a complex problem of cultivated land, protection of cultivated land does not rest simply on the number, but also to the cultivated land quality management and environmental protection, and promotion. In order to achieve this transformation and propose a reasonable amount of arable land resources management and protection of grain production proposals. First, we should understand the regional arable land quantity and quality as well as the temporal evolution of grain production capacity and spatial differentiation characteristics. Second, respectively grasp farmland quantity, quality and food production capacity space-time evolution of the drive mechanism. Finally, we should analyze the process of spatio-temporal coupling mechanism of the quantity and quality of cultivated land and grain production capacity.
This article selects Jianghan Plain as the study area. Jianghan Plain is located in south-central of Hubei Province. It is made by the Yangtze River and Hanjiang river perennial alluvial. Jianghan Plain is a typical Farmland-Lake Ecosystem which has more than300lakes in it. In this region, rivers are crisscrossed. Also, there are numerous lakes, fertile soil, abundant rainfall, adequate light and heat, excellent conditions for food production. Jianghan Plain is not only one of the important agricultural production bases in China, but also the fastest of cultivated land occupied by construction. The main change in land-use types is arable land-lakes-construction conversion. It is typical that the characteristics of spatio-temporal coupling mechanism of regional grain production capacity and quality of cultivated land.
This paper is divided into eight chapters:
Chapter one is an introduction. This chapter clarifies research significance. Then make a review of related articles from at home and abroad based on inspecting definition and research of cultivated land quality, studying spatial changes of cultivated land quality and progress of spatio-temporal coupling relationship between changes of grain production capacity and quality of cultivated land.
Chapter two is the research programs. In this chapter, the author makes a brief description of study objectives and research methods, and also proposes to solve the key issues, and establishes research techniques. The research based on a variety of methods such as cross-disciplinary background and quantitative geography,3S technology, mathematical statistics and computer technology to carry out in-depth research of the spatial variation response of the amount and quality of cultivated land and grain production capacity evolution in Jianghan Plain for30years.
Chapter three is the establishment index system. This chapter mainly describes the definition on the connotation and construction of indicator system and measurement standards. The index system and measurement standards are selected based on research purpose and studies on regional characteristics to make a definition of the quality of cultivated land and grain productivity.
Chapter four is the spatio-temporal evolution of the quantity of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. This chapter analyses driving mechanism of cultivated land spatio-temporal evolution in Jianghan Plain. This chapter focuses on evolving two-pronged approach to timing variations and spatial pattern of cultivated land quantity. Following two main line:the Statistical Yearbook data and remote sensing study on the land utilization types, then, respectively makes an in-depth analysis of the cultivated land in Jianghan Plain including regional differences in per capita arable land, cultivated land use change in timing change, Atlas of land use, land-use transition matrices, flows into and out of cultivated land spatial distribution characteristics and evolution, as well as potential changes of cultivated land, agricultural land law of Center of gravity, farmland landscape pattern and the evolution of spatial pattern of cultivated land at county. Finally it makes careful study on spatio-temporal change of the driving mechanism of the quantity of cultivated land resource in Jianghan Plain. Studies have shown that both the amount of cultivated land and the amount of cultivated land per capita decline during1980-2010in Jianghan Plain, also the center gravity of cultivated land moves westwards. More frequent in1980and1990, the conversion of arable land-waters and farmland-woodland are shown. During1990-2000, Waters-farmland and construction land-farmland conversion is the main type of conversion. During2000to2010, the conversion of arable land and construction land is the dominant type of conversion. Gradually from1980to2010, county land dynamically active degrees from the western regions to the eastern region. The main characteristics of the stage arable landscape changes are the fragmentation of cultivated land polygons and the irregular shapes that show human activities intervention on the change of Cultivated Land continue to strengthen.
Chapter five is the spatio-temporal evolution of the quality of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. This chapter analyses quality spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. It primarily explores on main factors variation of affecting the quality of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. And the author divided into arable farmland quality evaluation index system in accordance with the Regulations of Farmland Grading and "Dynamic monitoring of cultivated land quality in Central pilot". At last, spatio-temporal evolution and its driving mechanism of the quality of cultivated land has been studied deeply. Studies have shown:the two periods1980-1990and1990-2000, the quality of arable land enhance rapidly. From2000to2010, the quality farmland enhance slowly, even with the local quality recession. The superior quality farmland is concentrated to the east and south meanwhile the center gravity the inferior farmland slowly transfers to the west and north."High in the East and low in the west, south superior and north inferior" this spatial pattern of quality of arable land becomes more and more obvious.
Chapter six is the spatio-temporal evolution of Grain production capacity in Jianghan Plain. This chapter analyzes the space-time evolution and driving mechanism of Jianghan Plain grain production capacity. First, it makes a preliminary analysis of the food reality production capacity, such as food production, grain yields, per capita food production, multiple cropping indexes, and food production concentration timing variations. Then it estimates of potential productivity levels of food in Jianghan Plain. By using gravity models, ESDA spatial exploratory data analysis of grain production and the method of factor analysis, author conducts a study on evolution of spatial pattern of grain production in Jianghan Plain. Finally, author makes exploratory studies on plant boundary changes based on Jianghan Plain region daily meteorological data. On the basis of the above study, author expands the analysis of main driving forces of the grain production capacity space-time evolution in Jianghan Plain. The results show that:the variation of Jianghan Plain food production presents as "low yield-high yield-increased yield-declined yield" the spatial agglomeration characteristics are shown significantly, the yield movement trajectory of the center of gravity trend is "Move to east, transfer to south." Grain yield and grain sown area yields spatial coordination does not exist; this is mainly due to the differences of the regional planting structure with multiple cropping index. Cropping index shows a trend as first high then low, but the overall increase. The highest point of the stage reached in1997. The multiple of counties (cities) are disturbed in the south and west area, except Yunmeng county and Yingcheng city. These cities general cropping index distributions have a good consistency with heat distribution. The capacity potential estimates show that the eastern and southern regions is the future major increase area; the grain bearing capacity change of spatial pattern presents trend as the "west superior than east" to "the west superior than east, the south superior than north" to "East-South-West-southern half point stronger, northeast corner of weak" evolution of the situation. Food bearing capacity of the center of gravity along the trajectory of the West-Southwest-Southern movement; the warming lead to planting area boundaries advancing to the north and west, as well as double-crop rice planting northern boundary advancing to northward.
Chapter seven is the study on the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between food production capacity and quality of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. With the support of SLM and SEM spatial econometric regression model and ESDA data, author studies the analysis methods to explore the farmland quality factor with food production, spatial correlation between sustainable grain production capacity and relevant economic factors. This chapter also constructs a fitting model of cultivated land and food production center and analyzes of the spatial distribution of sensitivity of cultivated land and food production. Meanwhile, author studies on the spatio-temporal evolution of agricultural labor force and change of cultivated land and grain yield. Finally, it makes a comprehensive analysis on impact of the change of cultivated land quantity and quality on grain production. Author from three areas:the sustainable use of cultivated land, agricultural policy and promotion, the region-body functional position to make recommendations of cultivated land protection. The empirical result shows that the improvement of effective thickness of soil layer and soil in Jianghan Plain significantly improve the yield, however, drainage conditions have little improve space. Excellence cultivated land is in east and the focus of the quality of cultivated land and food production center of gravity move to south, the focus of cultivated land moves to northwestwards. Reverse structural changes for the future regional grain production planted hides danger. The rising of grain output dependence on the amount of cultivated land more and more significant. The pattern of labor farming coupling type space evolution is the "recession-partial growth-growth", the pattern of labor-farming growth counties (cities) expands gradually, the distribution center of gravity transfers from the western to the eastern part.
Chapter eight is the conclusions and innovations. In this chapter, the main conclusions and the innovative points are summarized
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