中国农村合作金融经营绩效与风险预警问题研究
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摘要
在我国农村金融体系中,作为正规合作金融机构唯一代表的农村信用社存在着诸多的问题,这些问题影响着它的发展,使其原有的为农村和农民服务的宗旨无法有效的实现。尽管近年来中央推动了以农村信用合作社改革为中心内容的农村金融服务体系改革与创新,可是,改革效果并不理想。一方面,融资渠道不畅严重了制约农村经济的发展;另一方面,被政府限制的“草根金融”在许多农村地区有日渐繁荣之势,但明显缺少规范和引导。因此,在社会主义市场经济条件下,促进农村信用社的健康发展,是金融工作乃至整个社会经济生活的一件大事,也是迫在眉睫的一件要事。加强农村合作金融的研究,有利于完善农村金融体系,促进农村金融市场的多元化发展;有利于推进农村其他方面金融改革的进行;有利于解决农村资金的供求矛盾,推进农业产业化发展;有利于增加农民收入,促进农村经济全面发展。目前关于中国农村合作金融的研究文献很多,但国内目前的研究和改革重点普遍都放在了农村信用社的管理体制和产权改革方面,较少探讨我国农村合作金融发展的经营效率和风险监管问题。本研究则从管理学、金融风险、农业经济学、制度经济学、社会学角度探寻中国农村合作金融经营效率较低和风险产生的理论根源及价值,借鉴国外发展农村合作金融的成功经验,在此基础上进行中国农村合作金融体系重构与政策选择,以求从根本上解决农村信用社存在的诸多问题,把农村信用社办成真正的合作金融组织,更好地发挥农村金融主力军的作用,促进农村经济的发展。论文的主要研究内容和如下:
第一部分为绪论部分。介绍论文的来源、背景,研究的目的和意义以及国内外研究现状和研究的创新点及框架。
第二部分介绍农村合作金融的基本理论。主要目的是通过探讨现代合作原则的演变过程,找到合作制组织的精髓,再结合现代金融理论,探讨现代意义合作金融的基本原理,为研究中国农村合作金融提供理论参考。
第三部分是中国农村合作金融的时空分析。本部分试图从时间上对我国农村合作金融的发展进行梳理,总结出其发展阶段规律;从空间上我国农村合作金融的分布进行整理,揭示出其空间分布规律。在此基础上,进一步分析影响我国农村合作金融的时间、空间因素,为促进我国农村合作金融的健康发展提供理论参考。
第四部分是农村合作金融的国际比较。本部分从发达国家中选择了美国、德国、日本,从发展中国家中选择了印度、孟加拉,对各国的农村合作金融进行了分析比较。希望借鉴这些国家农村信用合作组织的成功经验,为当前我国农村合作金融事业发展提供有益参考。
第五部分是中国农村信用社经营绩效分析。本部分将农村信用合作社作为研究对象,从农业信贷产品和信贷服务对社会的满足程度、农村信用社的资本运用效率、农村信用社的盈利能力等方面对我国农村合作金融经营绩效进行全面分析,找出农村合作金融经营中的问题,以期提出有针对性的政策建议。
第六部分是中国农村信用社发展的经济学分析。本部分运用制度经济学理论着重从制度层面分析我国农村信用社经营效率不高,亏损严重,可持续发展能力不足等问题,以揭示制约我国农村信用社发展的主要障碍。
第七部分是H省Z市农村信用社风险预警模型构建。运用企业经营危机理论、投资组合理论与人工神经网络方法,构建农村信用社风险预警模型。在此基础上,利用H省Z市农村信用社资料检验金融预警模型的预测能力。如果检验结果良好,表明可以利用“金融预警系统”综合判定农村金融机构的营运等级。
第八部分是中国农村合作金融体系重构与政策选择。基于前面几部分的分析,针对我国农村合作金融发展情况,按照深化市场化改革和农村金融体制改革的要求,重构我国农村合作金融体系,并从制度保障、风险监管、市场需求、法律保障、生态环境、服务创新等角度探讨如何保证农村合作金融健康发展。
In Chinese rural financial system, the rural credit cooperatives are the only representative of the formal cooperative financial organizations. It is recognized that problems existing in its current operations. Those problems have turned to be the obstacles to its further development and also to the fulfillment of its principle of serving the rural areas and the farmers. The central government has been promoting reforms and innovations in rural financial service system. Its central part is the rural credit cooperatives' reform. However, it turns out the result is not ideal. On one hand, existing problems in financial channels have severely hindered the development of rural economy. On the other hand, the flourished so-called "basic level finance" , which is strictly restrained by the government, is obviously lacking of proper regulation and direction. Therefore, under our socialist market economy circumstances, a sound development of rural credit cooperatives is not only the priority of our financial work but also our social economy at large. Strengthening the study of the rural cooperative finance will play an important role in improving both the rural financial system and the diversified development in rural financial market, and also promoting the other financial reforms in rural area. All these will in turn help to solve the rural funding problems existing between supply and demand, gear up the rural industrial development, increase the income of farmers and eventually contribute to the overall development of rural area.
Currently, there are a large number of Chinese rural cooperative finance studies. Generally speaking, the domestic research and reform focus more on the management system and property rights reform of rural credit cooperatives. And less attention has been given to the business performance and risk monitoring in the financial development of the rural cooperative economy.
This research studies theoretically the root of the poor performance and the risks in rural cooperative finance from the fields of management, financial risk, rural economics, institutional economics and sociology, and also lessons learned from the international rural cooperative finance development. Based on the above, the way of reconstruction and possible policy options has been discussed. They are expecting to solve the current problems in rural credit cooperatives, transform the rural credit cooperatives into the real and well-functioned financial cooperative organization, serve its major role in rural financial area and enhance the development of the rural economy.
The structure of this research work is as following:
Part One Introduction
In this part, the resource, background, purpose and significant meaning of this research work can be found. It also includes the innovative idea and basic structure of the current research situation both at home and abroad.
Part Two
It mainly talks about basic theories of rural cooperative finance. Generally speaking, the writer pays attention to the evolution of the modern cooperative principles, and the essence of the cooperative organizations. The findings and the modern finance theories along with the basic principles of the modern finance theories will provide the theoretical basis to Chinese rural cooperative financial practice.
Part Three
The spatio-temporal analysis of Chinese rural cooperative finance is provided here. The writer makes efforts to analyze the development of rural cooperative finance in China according to the time sequence, aiming at drawing out the regular patterns from different stages. Besides, the writer also sorts out the geographical distribution of the rural cooperative finance. Based on these, further analysis of influential time and space factors has been given, which is expecting to provide the theoretical reference to the healthy development of our rural cooperative finance.
Part Four
This part focuses on a comparative study of international rural cooperative finance development. A comparative study has been done in this part, with the hope that successful experiences can be learned and thus bring benefits to the development of our rural cooperative finance. The samples come from both developed countries, namely America, Germany, Japan, and developing countries, namely India and Bangladesh.
Part Five
Performance analysis has been done in this part. Taking rural credit cooperatives as the study object, the writer discusses the social satisfaction towards the rural credit product and credit service, the efficiency of rural credit cooperatives' capital use, and its profit-generating ability. By doing these, the problems in rural cooperative finance have been identified and specific targeted policy advises have been made.
Part Six
An economic analysis is presented in this part. Using the institutional economic theories, the writer works on bad efficiency, serious losses and poor sustainable development ability problems in our rural credit cooperatives and reveals the major obstructions in its development process.
Part Seven
The construction of an early warning model in City Z, H Province is illustrated here. In this part, the construction of the rural credit early warning model has been discussed based on the relevant theories of business crisis, business portfolio and artificial neural network. Taking the early warning model in City Z, H Province as example, if the evaluating result is positive, thus "the financial early warning system" can successfully show the operating level of the rural financial organizations.
Part Eight
The reconstruction and policy options of the rural cooperative financial system can be found in this part. Based on the work above, focusing on the rural cooperatives in China, the writer talks about how to reconstruct our rural cooperative financial system according to the principles of deepening the market reform and rural economic reform, and safeguarding the sound development of rural cooperative finance from the areas of system safeguarding, risk monitoring and supervision, market demand, legal protection, environmental protection and service innovation.
第一部分为绪论部分。介绍论文的来源、背景,研究的目的和意义以及国内外研究现状和研究的创新点及框架。
第二部分介绍农村合作金融的基本理论。主要目的是通过探讨现代合作原则的演变过程,找到合作制组织的精髓,再结合现代金融理论,探讨现代意义合作金融的基本原理,为研究中国农村合作金融提供理论参考。
第三部分是中国农村合作金融的时空分析。本部分试图从时间上对我国农村合作金融的发展进行梳理,总结出其发展阶段规律;从空间上我国农村合作金融的分布进行整理,揭示出其空间分布规律。在此基础上,进一步分析影响我国农村合作金融的时间、空间因素,为促进我国农村合作金融的健康发展提供理论参考。
第四部分是农村合作金融的国际比较。本部分从发达国家中选择了美国、德国、日本,从发展中国家中选择了印度、孟加拉,对各国的农村合作金融进行了分析比较。希望借鉴这些国家农村信用合作组织的成功经验,为当前我国农村合作金融事业发展提供有益参考。
第五部分是中国农村信用社经营绩效分析。本部分将农村信用合作社作为研究对象,从农业信贷产品和信贷服务对社会的满足程度、农村信用社的资本运用效率、农村信用社的盈利能力等方面对我国农村合作金融经营绩效进行全面分析,找出农村合作金融经营中的问题,以期提出有针对性的政策建议。
第六部分是中国农村信用社发展的经济学分析。本部分运用制度经济学理论着重从制度层面分析我国农村信用社经营效率不高,亏损严重,可持续发展能力不足等问题,以揭示制约我国农村信用社发展的主要障碍。
第七部分是H省Z市农村信用社风险预警模型构建。运用企业经营危机理论、投资组合理论与人工神经网络方法,构建农村信用社风险预警模型。在此基础上,利用H省Z市农村信用社资料检验金融预警模型的预测能力。如果检验结果良好,表明可以利用“金融预警系统”综合判定农村金融机构的营运等级。
第八部分是中国农村合作金融体系重构与政策选择。基于前面几部分的分析,针对我国农村合作金融发展情况,按照深化市场化改革和农村金融体制改革的要求,重构我国农村合作金融体系,并从制度保障、风险监管、市场需求、法律保障、生态环境、服务创新等角度探讨如何保证农村合作金融健康发展。
In Chinese rural financial system, the rural credit cooperatives are the only representative of the formal cooperative financial organizations. It is recognized that problems existing in its current operations. Those problems have turned to be the obstacles to its further development and also to the fulfillment of its principle of serving the rural areas and the farmers. The central government has been promoting reforms and innovations in rural financial service system. Its central part is the rural credit cooperatives' reform. However, it turns out the result is not ideal. On one hand, existing problems in financial channels have severely hindered the development of rural economy. On the other hand, the flourished so-called "basic level finance" , which is strictly restrained by the government, is obviously lacking of proper regulation and direction. Therefore, under our socialist market economy circumstances, a sound development of rural credit cooperatives is not only the priority of our financial work but also our social economy at large. Strengthening the study of the rural cooperative finance will play an important role in improving both the rural financial system and the diversified development in rural financial market, and also promoting the other financial reforms in rural area. All these will in turn help to solve the rural funding problems existing between supply and demand, gear up the rural industrial development, increase the income of farmers and eventually contribute to the overall development of rural area.
Currently, there are a large number of Chinese rural cooperative finance studies. Generally speaking, the domestic research and reform focus more on the management system and property rights reform of rural credit cooperatives. And less attention has been given to the business performance and risk monitoring in the financial development of the rural cooperative economy.
This research studies theoretically the root of the poor performance and the risks in rural cooperative finance from the fields of management, financial risk, rural economics, institutional economics and sociology, and also lessons learned from the international rural cooperative finance development. Based on the above, the way of reconstruction and possible policy options has been discussed. They are expecting to solve the current problems in rural credit cooperatives, transform the rural credit cooperatives into the real and well-functioned financial cooperative organization, serve its major role in rural financial area and enhance the development of the rural economy.
The structure of this research work is as following:
Part One Introduction
In this part, the resource, background, purpose and significant meaning of this research work can be found. It also includes the innovative idea and basic structure of the current research situation both at home and abroad.
Part Two
It mainly talks about basic theories of rural cooperative finance. Generally speaking, the writer pays attention to the evolution of the modern cooperative principles, and the essence of the cooperative organizations. The findings and the modern finance theories along with the basic principles of the modern finance theories will provide the theoretical basis to Chinese rural cooperative financial practice.
Part Three
The spatio-temporal analysis of Chinese rural cooperative finance is provided here. The writer makes efforts to analyze the development of rural cooperative finance in China according to the time sequence, aiming at drawing out the regular patterns from different stages. Besides, the writer also sorts out the geographical distribution of the rural cooperative finance. Based on these, further analysis of influential time and space factors has been given, which is expecting to provide the theoretical reference to the healthy development of our rural cooperative finance.
Part Four
This part focuses on a comparative study of international rural cooperative finance development. A comparative study has been done in this part, with the hope that successful experiences can be learned and thus bring benefits to the development of our rural cooperative finance. The samples come from both developed countries, namely America, Germany, Japan, and developing countries, namely India and Bangladesh.
Part Five
Performance analysis has been done in this part. Taking rural credit cooperatives as the study object, the writer discusses the social satisfaction towards the rural credit product and credit service, the efficiency of rural credit cooperatives' capital use, and its profit-generating ability. By doing these, the problems in rural cooperative finance have been identified and specific targeted policy advises have been made.
Part Six
An economic analysis is presented in this part. Using the institutional economic theories, the writer works on bad efficiency, serious losses and poor sustainable development ability problems in our rural credit cooperatives and reveals the major obstructions in its development process.
Part Seven
The construction of an early warning model in City Z, H Province is illustrated here. In this part, the construction of the rural credit early warning model has been discussed based on the relevant theories of business crisis, business portfolio and artificial neural network. Taking the early warning model in City Z, H Province as example, if the evaluating result is positive, thus "the financial early warning system" can successfully show the operating level of the rural financial organizations.
Part Eight
The reconstruction and policy options of the rural cooperative financial system can be found in this part. Based on the work above, focusing on the rural cooperatives in China, the writer talks about how to reconstruct our rural cooperative financial system according to the principles of deepening the market reform and rural economic reform, and safeguarding the sound development of rural cooperative finance from the areas of system safeguarding, risk monitoring and supervision, market demand, legal protection, environmental protection and service innovation.
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