中国货币政策区域效应研究
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摘要
改革开放30年来,货币政策已成为我国政府宏观调控的主要工具,在保持物价稳定和促进经济增长等宏观经济目标的实现上发挥了重要作用。由于我国各区域的经济发展水平、产业结构、金融结构、开放程度、市场化程度等各方面都存在较大差异,货币政策对我国各区域经济的影响也可能存在显著差异。如果货币政策的制定和实施缺乏对区域经济的考虑,将导致区域经济不平衡扩大,影响区域经济协调发展。当前,对货币政策区域效应的理论研究体系尚未建立,实证研究也较为有限。因而,有必要研究我国货币政策的区域效应,在此基础上提出促进区域经济协调发展的对策建议。
本文主要研究我国货币政策的区域效应,建立了分析我国货币政策区域效应的理论框架,从多个视角阐释了我国货币政策区域效应的作用机理；利用我国的经验数据,采用动态时间序列方法研究了我国货币政策效应的区域差异程度,并实证检验了我国货币政策区域效应的成因；最后有针对性地提出了对策建议。本文共分为7章。第1章为导论。第2章综述了相关文献。第3章介绍了我国货币政策决策机构、决策机制和货币政策工具的历史演进,分析了我国货币政策的特殊性和区域经济差异。第4章是以区域总需求-总供给(AD-AS)模型、区域货币乘数模型、区域货币政策乘数为基础的理论分析。第5章是机理分析,结合货币政策相关理论和中国经验数据,从多个视角分析了我国货币政策对区域经济影响的具体作用机理。第6章在理论和机理分析的基础上,实证研究了我国货币政策的区域产出效应和价格效应,并检验了我国货币政策区域效应的成因。第7章对全文进行了总结,并提出了相应的政策建议。
本文研究得到了以下一些结论：(1)理论分析表明：货币政策变动对东部经济的影响大于中西部等欠发达地区,这体现在AS曲线斜率、基础货币分布、货币乘数、货币政策乘数的区域差异上。(2)机理分析表明：扩张性货币政策对我国东部地区的影响较大,而紧缩性货币政策中各因素的影响效果不尽相同。(3)实证检验也证明了上述结论：东部地区的货币政策区域效应最大,中部地区其次,东北地区再次之,西部地区为负值；各地区受货币政策影响的区域价格效应差异较小。影响货币政策区域效应的因素中,企业结构变量、国际收支结构变量、银行结构变量与各个省份产出对货币政策响应程度的相关关系较为显著。
与以往的研究相比,本文的贡献主要体现在理论研究的系统性、作用机理视角的全面性以及实证研究的规范性和新颖性上。(1)在理论上,把AD-AS曲线、货币乘数、货币政策乘数应用于货币政策区域效应的分析,构建了区域总需求-总供给曲线、区域货币乘数模型、区域货币政策乘数模型。为货币政策区域效应提供了标准的理论分析框架。(2)在机理分析中,从货币政策工具、资产价格波动、区域经济结构差异、资金投资收益差异等视角分析了我国货币政策对区域经济影响的具体作用机理,克服了过去单一视角研究的局限性。(3)在实证研究上,采用了向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解等方法研究我国货币政策的区域产出效应和区域价格效应。并且用变量相关散点图的方法实证分析了区域经济结构性差异对货币政策区域效应的影响。
During the 30 years of China's reform and opening up, monetary policy has become the major tool for government macro-economic control and played an important role in stabilizing prices and promoting economic growth. Because the level of economic development, industrial structure, financial structure, the degree of openness, market-oriented extent, etc of different regions in China are of great difference, monetary policy is likely to have significant asymmetric effects across different regions. If the formulation and implementation of monetary policy fail to take regional economic into consideration, it will widen the regional economic disparities and impact the coordinated development of regional economies. At present, the theoretical research framework of regional effects of monetary policy has not been constructed and the empirical studies are still limited. Therefore, it is necessary to study regional effects of monetary policy and propose the strategies of promoting coordinated development of regional economies.
In this dissertation, we focus on regional effects of monetary policy and construct the theoretic framework for analyzing regional effects of monetary policy in China. The mechanisms of regional effects of monetary policy are analyzed in multiple perspectives. Regional differences caused by monetary policy are researched by using time-series techniques and empirical data. Reasons for regional effects of monetary policy in China are examined. At last, we propose the proper suggestions. The dissertation is divided into 7 chapters. Chapter 1 is the introduction. Chapter 2 is the literature review. In Chapter 3, the decision-making institution of monetary policy, the decision-making mechanism of monetary policy, and the historical evolution of monetary policy tools in China are introduced. The characteristics of monetary policy and the differences of regional economies are analyzed. In chapter 4, regional aggregate demand and aggregate supply (AD-AS) model, regional money multiplier model and regional monetary policy multiplier are analyzed theoretically. In chapter 5, we combine the corresponding theory of monetary policy with the regional economic data in China and analyze the specific mechanisms of regional effects of monetary policy in China in multiple perspectives. In chapter 6, on the basis of theoretic and mechanism analysis, the regional output effects and regional price effects of monetary policy are examined empirically. We also provide evidence on the reasons for regional effects of monetary policy. Chapter 7 concludes and proposes corresponding suggestions.
The following conclusions can be drawn from the research of the dissertation:(1) the theoretic analyses show that the response of the eastern region to monetary policy actions is greater than the ones of less developed middle and western regions. This is reflected in the regional differences of AS curve slope, the distribution of monetary base, money multiplier and multiplier of monetary policy. (2) The analysis of mechanisms shows that the eastern region in China is more sensitive to expansive monetary policy, but different factors cause different effects in tight monetary policy. (3) The empirical examinations also provide evidence on the above findings that the regional effect of monetary policy of the eastern region is the greatest, the middle region ranks the second, the northeastern region ranks the third, and the western region ranks the last. The regional price effects of monetary policy of different regions are similar. Among the factors that cause the regional effects of monetary policy, firm structure variables, the structure of international balance of payment variable and the bank structure variable are significantly related to the size of a provincial output response to monetary policy.
This dissertation contributes to the theoretic systemization, effect mechanism perspective comprehension and normative and novelty of empirical research. (1) In theory, AD-AS model, money multiplier and monetary policy multiplier are use to regional effect of monetary policy. On the basis of these models, regional AD-AS model, regional money multiplier and regional monetary policy multiplier are constructed. The theoretic analysis provides a standard theoretic framework. (2) In mechanism analysis, specific mechanisms by which monetary policy affects regional economies are analyzed in perspectives of tools of monetary policy, asset price fluctuations, regional economic structure differences and investment return differences, etc. It overcomes the analysis limitation in a single perspective. (3) In empirical study, regional output effects and regional price effects of monetary policy in China are researched in methodology of impulse response functions and variance decomposition from estimated vector error correction models. The impact of regional economic structure differences on regional effects is examined in methodologies of simple linear regression and variable relation scatter graphs.
本文主要研究我国货币政策的区域效应,建立了分析我国货币政策区域效应的理论框架,从多个视角阐释了我国货币政策区域效应的作用机理；利用我国的经验数据,采用动态时间序列方法研究了我国货币政策效应的区域差异程度,并实证检验了我国货币政策区域效应的成因；最后有针对性地提出了对策建议。本文共分为7章。第1章为导论。第2章综述了相关文献。第3章介绍了我国货币政策决策机构、决策机制和货币政策工具的历史演进,分析了我国货币政策的特殊性和区域经济差异。第4章是以区域总需求-总供给(AD-AS)模型、区域货币乘数模型、区域货币政策乘数为基础的理论分析。第5章是机理分析,结合货币政策相关理论和中国经验数据,从多个视角分析了我国货币政策对区域经济影响的具体作用机理。第6章在理论和机理分析的基础上,实证研究了我国货币政策的区域产出效应和价格效应,并检验了我国货币政策区域效应的成因。第7章对全文进行了总结,并提出了相应的政策建议。
本文研究得到了以下一些结论：(1)理论分析表明：货币政策变动对东部经济的影响大于中西部等欠发达地区,这体现在AS曲线斜率、基础货币分布、货币乘数、货币政策乘数的区域差异上。(2)机理分析表明：扩张性货币政策对我国东部地区的影响较大,而紧缩性货币政策中各因素的影响效果不尽相同。(3)实证检验也证明了上述结论：东部地区的货币政策区域效应最大,中部地区其次,东北地区再次之,西部地区为负值；各地区受货币政策影响的区域价格效应差异较小。影响货币政策区域效应的因素中,企业结构变量、国际收支结构变量、银行结构变量与各个省份产出对货币政策响应程度的相关关系较为显著。
与以往的研究相比,本文的贡献主要体现在理论研究的系统性、作用机理视角的全面性以及实证研究的规范性和新颖性上。(1)在理论上,把AD-AS曲线、货币乘数、货币政策乘数应用于货币政策区域效应的分析,构建了区域总需求-总供给曲线、区域货币乘数模型、区域货币政策乘数模型。为货币政策区域效应提供了标准的理论分析框架。(2)在机理分析中,从货币政策工具、资产价格波动、区域经济结构差异、资金投资收益差异等视角分析了我国货币政策对区域经济影响的具体作用机理,克服了过去单一视角研究的局限性。(3)在实证研究上,采用了向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解等方法研究我国货币政策的区域产出效应和区域价格效应。并且用变量相关散点图的方法实证分析了区域经济结构性差异对货币政策区域效应的影响。
During the 30 years of China's reform and opening up, monetary policy has become the major tool for government macro-economic control and played an important role in stabilizing prices and promoting economic growth. Because the level of economic development, industrial structure, financial structure, the degree of openness, market-oriented extent, etc of different regions in China are of great difference, monetary policy is likely to have significant asymmetric effects across different regions. If the formulation and implementation of monetary policy fail to take regional economic into consideration, it will widen the regional economic disparities and impact the coordinated development of regional economies. At present, the theoretical research framework of regional effects of monetary policy has not been constructed and the empirical studies are still limited. Therefore, it is necessary to study regional effects of monetary policy and propose the strategies of promoting coordinated development of regional economies.
In this dissertation, we focus on regional effects of monetary policy and construct the theoretic framework for analyzing regional effects of monetary policy in China. The mechanisms of regional effects of monetary policy are analyzed in multiple perspectives. Regional differences caused by monetary policy are researched by using time-series techniques and empirical data. Reasons for regional effects of monetary policy in China are examined. At last, we propose the proper suggestions. The dissertation is divided into 7 chapters. Chapter 1 is the introduction. Chapter 2 is the literature review. In Chapter 3, the decision-making institution of monetary policy, the decision-making mechanism of monetary policy, and the historical evolution of monetary policy tools in China are introduced. The characteristics of monetary policy and the differences of regional economies are analyzed. In chapter 4, regional aggregate demand and aggregate supply (AD-AS) model, regional money multiplier model and regional monetary policy multiplier are analyzed theoretically. In chapter 5, we combine the corresponding theory of monetary policy with the regional economic data in China and analyze the specific mechanisms of regional effects of monetary policy in China in multiple perspectives. In chapter 6, on the basis of theoretic and mechanism analysis, the regional output effects and regional price effects of monetary policy are examined empirically. We also provide evidence on the reasons for regional effects of monetary policy. Chapter 7 concludes and proposes corresponding suggestions.
The following conclusions can be drawn from the research of the dissertation:(1) the theoretic analyses show that the response of the eastern region to monetary policy actions is greater than the ones of less developed middle and western regions. This is reflected in the regional differences of AS curve slope, the distribution of monetary base, money multiplier and multiplier of monetary policy. (2) The analysis of mechanisms shows that the eastern region in China is more sensitive to expansive monetary policy, but different factors cause different effects in tight monetary policy. (3) The empirical examinations also provide evidence on the above findings that the regional effect of monetary policy of the eastern region is the greatest, the middle region ranks the second, the northeastern region ranks the third, and the western region ranks the last. The regional price effects of monetary policy of different regions are similar. Among the factors that cause the regional effects of monetary policy, firm structure variables, the structure of international balance of payment variable and the bank structure variable are significantly related to the size of a provincial output response to monetary policy.
This dissertation contributes to the theoretic systemization, effect mechanism perspective comprehension and normative and novelty of empirical research. (1) In theory, AD-AS model, money multiplier and monetary policy multiplier are use to regional effect of monetary policy. On the basis of these models, regional AD-AS model, regional money multiplier and regional monetary policy multiplier are constructed. The theoretic analysis provides a standard theoretic framework. (2) In mechanism analysis, specific mechanisms by which monetary policy affects regional economies are analyzed in perspectives of tools of monetary policy, asset price fluctuations, regional economic structure differences and investment return differences, etc. It overcomes the analysis limitation in a single perspective. (3) In empirical study, regional output effects and regional price effects of monetary policy in China are researched in methodology of impulse response functions and variance decomposition from estimated vector error correction models. The impact of regional economic structure differences on regional effects is examined in methodologies of simple linear regression and variable relation scatter graphs.
引文
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