中国城市增长特征及影响因素的计量分析
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摘要
城市发展己经成为全球发展的主题,无疑,21世纪是城市的世纪。但地区间的城市化程度和进程有着显著差异。从经济社会和国家的角度来看,发达国家己经进入城市化稳定阶段。除了定期的有关城市化率和水平的联合国公报之外,对于发展中国家的城市增长规律及其实证方面缺乏系统性的研究。
本文首先采用非参数统计方法——核密度估计方法对中国城市规模的分布进行了分析。并且针对传统的位序-规模律的回归方程,使用面板数据回归模型方法来解决遗漏变量造成估计量的非一致性,使得估计结果呈现较大的变异性的问题。在此基础上,解析城市增长收敛性概念和总结国内外城市增长收敛性研究的基础上,采用面板单位根检验方法对中国城市增长的收敛性进行检验,间接分析和评价市场化后的城市发展政策实施效果。并以国内34个城市1992-2007年间以及全国水平的人口数据作为实证分析的样本数据,验证城市增长是否存在平行增长特征。中国城市增长往往由于地域性不平衡或对城市用地扩展空间不均造成了城市异速增长问题。作者利用Markov区制转移模型定量化分析中国城市增长路径的非对称特征问题。本文从投入——产出角度,以城市的土地、投资、人口和地区总产值数据,利用数据包络分析方法构建评价城市增长有效性的静态模型和动态模型。并结合1992年——2008年中国34个城市的投入产出数据分析和比较各个城市增长的静态和动态有效性。最后文章利用相关的面板协整模型分析了城市经济增长和城市人口增长的影响因素。
The research on urban growth phenomenon, along with the rapid development of urban economics, the depth of the research and development of mainstream economics perspective and consistent, from the perspective of the general empirical modeling and plans to deepen the quantitative analysis of the knowledge economy, technology, market structure and social factors of urban growth depth of function. But in China, the depth of the research on urban growth and vision remains mining. On one hand, the application needs to analysis theory and the mainstream economics. The regional economy and the traditional urban economic theory research and the mainstream economics in the long-standing problem, cannot fully into the mainstream economics in the analysis framework. Currently with the fusion recognition based on research, Paul Krugman, (a) and TianChangJiu cane Krugman Fujita (for), based on the market, not entirely paid constant (increase) and transport costs for the research direction of the balanced growth of new economic geography, 2 is from the division of labor, sachs j.and Yang transaction cost and neoclassical economic growth for the direction of research, with inframarginal analysis for the tool of development economics "general". Still needs to improve the exploration framework. On the other hand, the analytical tools need to be updated. With China's transition economy as the goal, take the emerging econometric analysis tools, instead of urban growth quanlitative empirical study is still "diamond". From the planned economy to the market economy, China's economic transition, industrialization and urbanization process is the embodiment of the evolution of economic transition. From the Angle of urban growth and to interpret transition economy growth, urban population growth and spatial growth and increase performance analysis of urban growth interpretation, To build measurement analysis model of economic growth, from the two dimensions and population growth, China's urban growth of different pattern, features and factors. Expectations of urban growth through study of a new observation form China's macroeconomic development view, which is due to the feasibility, a research field of study at the potential is enormous and provides allure extremely. The main content of this article and conclusions are as follows:
The third chapter is in kernel density estimation methods validation China city size distribution law. The traditional urban size distribution, often apriority hypothesis city size distribution is Pareto distribution, but actually Pareto distribution only an exception. In urban distribution parameters, scale before using the statistical methods should be certain to test whether Pareto distribution. This chapter 3 using nonparametric statistical methods - kernel density estimation method for the distribution of China's urban scale is analyzed. And in the traditional order - scale, the regression equation of the law may be omitted variable exists causes estimator inconsistencies, makes the estimated result of the present problems and variability in chapter 3 using panel data model method to solve this problem, a missing variables. This paper adopts non-parameter statistics - kernel density estimation method to China in 1994 and 1997, 2001, 2007 the city scale is analyzed. Analysis results show that the distribution of China's urban scale Pareto approximation. This paper also USES panel data model method to solve the traditional order, the regression equation of the law of scale variable problem. Missing Estimation results show that, 1994-1998, China city size distribution of Pareto index has a growing trend for 0.992 0.751 from rising, this shows that this one phase city scale also belongs to the uniform distribution state, but the city state is strengthening. And in 1998-2000, Chinese city scale distribution of Pareto index has a marked decline from 0.992 decline, for 0.769. This one phase city scale also belongs to the uniform distribution state, but the city state is decreasing. From 2000-2007, China city scale distribution of Pareto index has a clear ascendant trend, 0.769 rise from 1.740, then there is little declines. This one phase China city scale distribution by uniform distribution state into clear, urban agglomeration of sex.
The fourth chapter is Chinese urban growth validation convergence characteristics and growth mode. The urban economy is growing and population growth is the concrete embodiment of urban growth. In the fourth chapter, we will be in analytic convergence concepts and summarizes the domestic and foreign convergence, based on the study of unit root test method using panel on Chinese urban growth of convergence, indirect test analysis and evaluation of urban development after the marketization of policy implementation effect. And in 1992-34 cities and national level of 2007 as the population data analysis of the sample data, a national level, Shanghai, shenzhen, kunming, as the reference for the city separately cointegration test and verify whether existing urban growth characteristics of parallel growth. Test results showed that 1992-2007 for urban economic growth phenomenon of convergence, urban random growth theory about convergence hypothesis in China. If points, 1992-1999 period of economic growth in our city, the convergence of the existing urban random growth period of about convergence theory was established. Hypothesis, But during the 2000-2007, urban growth characteristics of urban growth and spread presents the theory about urban growth mixed in this time of divergence. Hypothesis, 1992-2007, 1992-1999 and 2000-2007 three periods of Chinese 34 at the end of urban population in three panel data unit root test statistics test sample were less than 5% of the corresponding level of China's cities under critical value, the population growth does not assume any convergent trend. Results showed that the cointegration level as reference, Chinese urban growth does not exist parallel growth characteristics. For in the same size, location and regional policy city, indeed present city endogenous growth theory of parallel growth characteristics of prophecy.
The fifth chapter is the analysis of Chinese urban growth path. Variable China's urban growth of regional imbalance of urban land expanded space or judgement is uneven, theoretical and relevant decision-making departments concerned problems of urban vision increased. Different speed growth equation method for urban growth and no in the process of asymmetric quantitative description is widely using. Markov quantitative analysis model is using on the transfer system of Chinese urban growth path asymmetrical features. Research found that eastern, central and western regions of the three cities average GDP growth of asymmetric similar sequence. The eastern, central and western region of three average GDP growth in the sequence of mean multi-member district division is significant. The eastern, central and western region of three average GDP growth of sequence exists long expansion, short contraction asymmetrical status. The eastern, central and western regions of the three cities of the average population growth sequence asymmetric showed obvious difference. The eastern central, western region, average urban population growth rate of three in the area of mean dividing are significant. In the east, the average urban area population growth has long contraction, short sequences of asymmetric. Expand the eastern, central and western regions of the three cities on average growth rate of the land area of the finished sequence of asymmetry also have certain differences. Two large areas in the east, land area of average urban constructed sequence has long expansion rate, short contraction of asymmetric state. While the western region average urban population growth sequence of each state expectations lasting period flat.
Chapter 6 is urban growth performance evaluation model and analysis of Chinese urban growth performance. The input-output Angle, the city land, investment, population and regional output data, the data envelopment analysis method are using to assess the effectiveness of the model and the growth of the static dynamic model. Combining 1992-2008 China 34 cities of input-output data analysis is being comparised on efficiency of the various urban growth static and dynamic. 2008 in analysis of 34 in the city, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, jinan, these three cities for the growth performance, 34 DEA effective urban growth DEA RMS presented some differences. In 1992-2008, Chinese urban growth dynamic efficiency in some cities, including present average rise by an average of Qingdao was rising in the top speed, followed by changchun, chengdu and dalian and xian, annual rate reached above 10%. But during this period, there are many urban growth dynamic efficiency changes dropped, such as shenzhen, hangzhou, zhengzhou, haikou, zhuhai, changsha, taiyuan, lanzhou, xining, yinchuan, nanning urban growth dynamic efficiency eleven were decreased.
Chapter 7 is analysis of the influence factors of urban growth. Chapter 7 from the urban population growth and economic growth, the choice of two typical period and the Angle of sample, using panel city cointegration theory method for urban growth factors for empirical research. Research results show that the urban economy is growing cointegration test results indicate that urban initial population scale, the urban investment and industry structure variables, foreign direct investment, the initial salary level and city urban economic growth has co-integration relationship. Reflect the urban environment and human capital city of variable and economic growth is not a co-integration relationship. Urban per capita GDP level, the initial government expenditure, foreign direct investment, the average wage rate, city and urban population growth has co-integration relationship. Human capital city and reflects the degree of the two variables and the urban population growth is not a co-integration relationship. The initial population size of city urban economic growth to influence negatively. Urban investment and industry structure variables, foreign direct investment, the city of initial salary level of urban economic growth, Urban per capita GDP level, the initial government expenditure, foreign direct investment, per capita wage, city of urban population growth rate of the relationship.
本文首先采用非参数统计方法——核密度估计方法对中国城市规模的分布进行了分析。并且针对传统的位序-规模律的回归方程,使用面板数据回归模型方法来解决遗漏变量造成估计量的非一致性,使得估计结果呈现较大的变异性的问题。在此基础上,解析城市增长收敛性概念和总结国内外城市增长收敛性研究的基础上,采用面板单位根检验方法对中国城市增长的收敛性进行检验,间接分析和评价市场化后的城市发展政策实施效果。并以国内34个城市1992-2007年间以及全国水平的人口数据作为实证分析的样本数据,验证城市增长是否存在平行增长特征。中国城市增长往往由于地域性不平衡或对城市用地扩展空间不均造成了城市异速增长问题。作者利用Markov区制转移模型定量化分析中国城市增长路径的非对称特征问题。本文从投入——产出角度,以城市的土地、投资、人口和地区总产值数据,利用数据包络分析方法构建评价城市增长有效性的静态模型和动态模型。并结合1992年——2008年中国34个城市的投入产出数据分析和比较各个城市增长的静态和动态有效性。最后文章利用相关的面板协整模型分析了城市经济增长和城市人口增长的影响因素。
The research on urban growth phenomenon, along with the rapid development of urban economics, the depth of the research and development of mainstream economics perspective and consistent, from the perspective of the general empirical modeling and plans to deepen the quantitative analysis of the knowledge economy, technology, market structure and social factors of urban growth depth of function. But in China, the depth of the research on urban growth and vision remains mining. On one hand, the application needs to analysis theory and the mainstream economics. The regional economy and the traditional urban economic theory research and the mainstream economics in the long-standing problem, cannot fully into the mainstream economics in the analysis framework. Currently with the fusion recognition based on research, Paul Krugman, (a) and TianChangJiu cane Krugman Fujita (for), based on the market, not entirely paid constant (increase) and transport costs for the research direction of the balanced growth of new economic geography, 2 is from the division of labor, sachs j.and Yang transaction cost and neoclassical economic growth for the direction of research, with inframarginal analysis for the tool of development economics "general". Still needs to improve the exploration framework. On the other hand, the analytical tools need to be updated. With China's transition economy as the goal, take the emerging econometric analysis tools, instead of urban growth quanlitative empirical study is still "diamond". From the planned economy to the market economy, China's economic transition, industrialization and urbanization process is the embodiment of the evolution of economic transition. From the Angle of urban growth and to interpret transition economy growth, urban population growth and spatial growth and increase performance analysis of urban growth interpretation, To build measurement analysis model of economic growth, from the two dimensions and population growth, China's urban growth of different pattern, features and factors. Expectations of urban growth through study of a new observation form China's macroeconomic development view, which is due to the feasibility, a research field of study at the potential is enormous and provides allure extremely. The main content of this article and conclusions are as follows:
The third chapter is in kernel density estimation methods validation China city size distribution law. The traditional urban size distribution, often apriority hypothesis city size distribution is Pareto distribution, but actually Pareto distribution only an exception. In urban distribution parameters, scale before using the statistical methods should be certain to test whether Pareto distribution. This chapter 3 using nonparametric statistical methods - kernel density estimation method for the distribution of China's urban scale is analyzed. And in the traditional order - scale, the regression equation of the law may be omitted variable exists causes estimator inconsistencies, makes the estimated result of the present problems and variability in chapter 3 using panel data model method to solve this problem, a missing variables. This paper adopts non-parameter statistics - kernel density estimation method to China in 1994 and 1997, 2001, 2007 the city scale is analyzed. Analysis results show that the distribution of China's urban scale Pareto approximation. This paper also USES panel data model method to solve the traditional order, the regression equation of the law of scale variable problem. Missing Estimation results show that, 1994-1998, China city size distribution of Pareto index has a growing trend for 0.992 0.751 from rising, this shows that this one phase city scale also belongs to the uniform distribution state, but the city state is strengthening. And in 1998-2000, Chinese city scale distribution of Pareto index has a marked decline from 0.992 decline, for 0.769. This one phase city scale also belongs to the uniform distribution state, but the city state is decreasing. From 2000-2007, China city scale distribution of Pareto index has a clear ascendant trend, 0.769 rise from 1.740, then there is little declines. This one phase China city scale distribution by uniform distribution state into clear, urban agglomeration of sex.
The fourth chapter is Chinese urban growth validation convergence characteristics and growth mode. The urban economy is growing and population growth is the concrete embodiment of urban growth. In the fourth chapter, we will be in analytic convergence concepts and summarizes the domestic and foreign convergence, based on the study of unit root test method using panel on Chinese urban growth of convergence, indirect test analysis and evaluation of urban development after the marketization of policy implementation effect. And in 1992-34 cities and national level of 2007 as the population data analysis of the sample data, a national level, Shanghai, shenzhen, kunming, as the reference for the city separately cointegration test and verify whether existing urban growth characteristics of parallel growth. Test results showed that 1992-2007 for urban economic growth phenomenon of convergence, urban random growth theory about convergence hypothesis in China. If points, 1992-1999 period of economic growth in our city, the convergence of the existing urban random growth period of about convergence theory was established. Hypothesis, But during the 2000-2007, urban growth characteristics of urban growth and spread presents the theory about urban growth mixed in this time of divergence. Hypothesis, 1992-2007, 1992-1999 and 2000-2007 three periods of Chinese 34 at the end of urban population in three panel data unit root test statistics test sample were less than 5% of the corresponding level of China's cities under critical value, the population growth does not assume any convergent trend. Results showed that the cointegration level as reference, Chinese urban growth does not exist parallel growth characteristics. For in the same size, location and regional policy city, indeed present city endogenous growth theory of parallel growth characteristics of prophecy.
The fifth chapter is the analysis of Chinese urban growth path. Variable China's urban growth of regional imbalance of urban land expanded space or judgement is uneven, theoretical and relevant decision-making departments concerned problems of urban vision increased. Different speed growth equation method for urban growth and no in the process of asymmetric quantitative description is widely using. Markov quantitative analysis model is using on the transfer system of Chinese urban growth path asymmetrical features. Research found that eastern, central and western regions of the three cities average GDP growth of asymmetric similar sequence. The eastern, central and western region of three average GDP growth in the sequence of mean multi-member district division is significant. The eastern, central and western region of three average GDP growth of sequence exists long expansion, short contraction asymmetrical status. The eastern, central and western regions of the three cities of the average population growth sequence asymmetric showed obvious difference. The eastern central, western region, average urban population growth rate of three in the area of mean dividing are significant. In the east, the average urban area population growth has long contraction, short sequences of asymmetric. Expand the eastern, central and western regions of the three cities on average growth rate of the land area of the finished sequence of asymmetry also have certain differences. Two large areas in the east, land area of average urban constructed sequence has long expansion rate, short contraction of asymmetric state. While the western region average urban population growth sequence of each state expectations lasting period flat.
Chapter 6 is urban growth performance evaluation model and analysis of Chinese urban growth performance. The input-output Angle, the city land, investment, population and regional output data, the data envelopment analysis method are using to assess the effectiveness of the model and the growth of the static dynamic model. Combining 1992-2008 China 34 cities of input-output data analysis is being comparised on efficiency of the various urban growth static and dynamic. 2008 in analysis of 34 in the city, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, jinan, these three cities for the growth performance, 34 DEA effective urban growth DEA RMS presented some differences. In 1992-2008, Chinese urban growth dynamic efficiency in some cities, including present average rise by an average of Qingdao was rising in the top speed, followed by changchun, chengdu and dalian and xian, annual rate reached above 10%. But during this period, there are many urban growth dynamic efficiency changes dropped, such as shenzhen, hangzhou, zhengzhou, haikou, zhuhai, changsha, taiyuan, lanzhou, xining, yinchuan, nanning urban growth dynamic efficiency eleven were decreased.
Chapter 7 is analysis of the influence factors of urban growth. Chapter 7 from the urban population growth and economic growth, the choice of two typical period and the Angle of sample, using panel city cointegration theory method for urban growth factors for empirical research. Research results show that the urban economy is growing cointegration test results indicate that urban initial population scale, the urban investment and industry structure variables, foreign direct investment, the initial salary level and city urban economic growth has co-integration relationship. Reflect the urban environment and human capital city of variable and economic growth is not a co-integration relationship. Urban per capita GDP level, the initial government expenditure, foreign direct investment, the average wage rate, city and urban population growth has co-integration relationship. Human capital city and reflects the degree of the two variables and the urban population growth is not a co-integration relationship. The initial population size of city urban economic growth to influence negatively. Urban investment and industry structure variables, foreign direct investment, the city of initial salary level of urban economic growth, Urban per capita GDP level, the initial government expenditure, foreign direct investment, per capita wage, city of urban population growth rate of the relationship.
引文
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