新兴技术企业产品预测、市场价值与特征研究
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摘要
自20世纪中叶以来,以信息技术为代表的第三次技术革命的浪潮席卷全球,在新涌现的技术中,新兴技术特别引人注目。新兴技术不同于一般的新技术,它具有“创造性毁灭”的特征,具有创造一个新行业或改变一个现有行业并对经济结构产生重大影响的能力。
新兴技术对于中国企业有着特殊的战略意义。中国市场有其制度文化方面的独特性,其规模效应、社会网络效应也是一般国家难以企及的。一旦新兴技术与中国市场成功对接,将会在短时间内创造出规模巨大、利润可观的新兴技术产品市场,为企业提供广阔的发展空间。因此,研究中国新兴技术企业产品扩散的市场预测和企业价值等问题,并由此展开,总结和提炼出中国新兴技术企业的主要特征(市场特征、行业特征和技术特征),在更一般的意义上确定中国新兴技术企业的特征函数和特征模型,对于我国新兴技术产业的发展和投资具有非常重要的现实意义。
本文的研究建立在对1990年前后新产品扩散文献系统地分析、比较与述评的基础上,通过对新兴技术企业产品的市场特征分析,总结并提出了我国新兴技术企业的市场特征及其度量方法。我国新兴技术企业的市场特征为改进型新兴技术产品市场呈滞后盈利的团簇性增长、突破型新兴技术产品市场呈滞后盈利的爆炸性增长、早熟型新兴技术产品市场呈追捧性消亡。新兴技术企业市场特征的关键词是临界容量(决定能否形成采用者集群的市场销量)和集群性增长(因增长方式和速度不同表现为团簇性增长和爆炸性增长),这一切根源于产品采用者不同的空间分布及其动态变化的速度和方式。由于传统的概念测试、小组讨论、销量预测等市场研究方法由于无法应对新兴技术产品市场的高度不确定性而失效,刻画新兴技术产品市场必须有一种能够有效度量新兴技术产品采用者空间分布动态变化差异的工具。
本文采用嵌入小世界网络的元胞自动机(CASWN)建模并结合交叉熵测度的技术方法就是这样一个工具。它将新兴技术产品扩散借助于小世界网络的传播机制通过元胞自动机模拟演化得到采用者的动态分布,并利用交叉熵测度定量度量不同分布的差异和产品成功的概率。笔者通过对我国中部特大型城市武汉市MP4产品市场的CASWN建模仿真,实证表明采用嵌入小世界网络的元胞自动机模型并结合交叉熵测度技术能够较好地计量和预测我国新兴技术产品市场。本文的方法为我国新兴技术企业和风险投资机构以及公共经济管理部门更准确地计算和调整新兴技术产品项目的预期现金流和项目现值提供了一个新工具,进而也为准确计算新兴技术产品项目期权价值提供了一个基础条件。
新兴技术企业产品上市的成功,必然带来企业价值的迅速增大,于是新兴技术企业的价值评估乃至企业上市定价问题显得尤为重要。本文采用半参数计量经济模型结合自组织数据挖掘的GMDH算法构建了我国新兴技术企业的市场价值估计模型(定价模型),发现新兴技术企业价值的主要相关因素及其相关关系,并解释了投资者对新兴技术企业价值关注的“异常”表现。这些“异常”表现为：在公司治理方面,投资者关注的不是企业的资产负债情况,而是企业规模和收益总额；对于资产的流动性,投资者关注的不是流动资产的变现能力,而是新兴技术企业实物资产的利用及库存状况,而且新兴技术企业的市场价值与其公司规模负相关。
基于产品市场和企业价值的研究,本文最后总结和提出了我国新兴技术企业的主要特征及其函数表达,构建了我国新兴技术企业成长的三维特征模型。我国新兴技术企业的行业特征就是拥有信息技术、纳米技术、生物工程技术之中至少一个方面的高技术创新产品或服务的中小高新技术企业群落；技术特征就是具有序贯多阶段期权性质的不连续的技术创新、高度的不确定性及其显著边际效应和性能突破力；市场特征就是临界容量制约下滞后盈利型的集群性增长。新兴技术企业特征函数的基本功用在于：行业特征函数提供了识别中国新兴技术企业的标准；技术特征函数提供了新兴技术项目阶段投资的上限；市场特征函数提供了中国新兴技术项目产品上市初期投资的策略。本文构建的我国新兴技术企业的特征模型能够较准确地分析和判断我国新兴技术初创企业所处的发展阶段及其特点。特征函数和特征模型为我国新兴技术企业的运作管理,为风险投资机构的决策分析以及公共经济管理部门的政策管理提供了一个有效的分析方法,具有一定的应用价值。
Since the mid-20th century, Information technology-based Third Wave has been sweeping the world. Among new technologies, we are going to focus on emerging technology (ET), which has a characteristic of "creative destruction", and can create a new industry, change an existing industry or regional economic structure.
Because China has unique socio-cultural and Chinese market has a larger scale and extraordinary network effect than those of other countries, ET is of special strategic significance for Chinese enterprises. Once a large number of people adopt emerging technology products (ETPs) in China, then a large-scale, lucrative emerging market will be formed in a short period of time. So, a study on ETP diffusion and the characteristics of emerging technology firms (ETFs) is of great significance.
This research begins with a systematic review of literatures on new products diffusion. After analyzing characteristics of ETP diffusion, the market characteristics of ETF in China is summed up as follows:Technological improved ETP market shows an agglomerate growth with lagging profit; Technological breakthrough ETP market shows an explosive growth with lagging profit; Precocious ETP market withers away after a short hot pursuit of consumers. The keywords of market characteristics of ETP are critical sales and clustering growth (an agglomerate growth or explosive growth for different modes and/or different speeds of ETP diffusion). All those must be demonstrated with the dynamic changes of adopters spatial distribution. Due to the high uncertainty of ETP marketing, the traditional forecasting methods can not be applied to measure ETP marketing effectively. An effective tool, cellular automata model embedded small-world network and cross-entropy (CASWN-CE) method, has been found in this paper to measure the differences of adopters spatial distribution. Empirical research through analyzing and simulating the MP4 diffusion in Wuhan MP4 market shows that CASWN-CE is an effective method to measure ETP marketing and predict the success probabilities of ETPs in the regional market. Accordingly, a more accurate expected cash flow of ETP and the option value of ETP project can be calculated.
After the success of an ETP, the value of this ETF will increased rapidly. A semi-parametric model combined with GMDH is build to estimate the value of ETFs in this paper, empirical research discovers the validity of this model and explains some "abnormalities". These "abnormalities" is as follows:investors concern the quality of whole asset of an ETF more than each share, the utilization of real assets and inventory of an ETF more than liquidity of its liquid assets, and the value of an ETF is negative correlation with its size.
Finally, the characteristic function and feature model of ETFs are established in this paper. The industry characteristic of ETFs is clusters of SME engaged in innovative products or services of high-tech, at least one aspect of information technology, nanotechnology, bioengineering techniques; The technical characteristic of ETFs is a discrete technological innovation with the sequential multi-stage options, high uncertainty and its significant marginal effect and breaking power of performance; The market characteristic of ETFs is lagging-profited clustering growth under the constraint of critical sales. A three-dimensional feature model of ETFs can be used for analyzing and evaluating the growing stage and feature of an ETF. The characteristic function and feature model is provided here as a new tool for the management and strategy of ETF and venture capital policy, It has a guiding role.
新兴技术对于中国企业有着特殊的战略意义。中国市场有其制度文化方面的独特性,其规模效应、社会网络效应也是一般国家难以企及的。一旦新兴技术与中国市场成功对接,将会在短时间内创造出规模巨大、利润可观的新兴技术产品市场,为企业提供广阔的发展空间。因此,研究中国新兴技术企业产品扩散的市场预测和企业价值等问题,并由此展开,总结和提炼出中国新兴技术企业的主要特征(市场特征、行业特征和技术特征),在更一般的意义上确定中国新兴技术企业的特征函数和特征模型,对于我国新兴技术产业的发展和投资具有非常重要的现实意义。
本文的研究建立在对1990年前后新产品扩散文献系统地分析、比较与述评的基础上,通过对新兴技术企业产品的市场特征分析,总结并提出了我国新兴技术企业的市场特征及其度量方法。我国新兴技术企业的市场特征为改进型新兴技术产品市场呈滞后盈利的团簇性增长、突破型新兴技术产品市场呈滞后盈利的爆炸性增长、早熟型新兴技术产品市场呈追捧性消亡。新兴技术企业市场特征的关键词是临界容量(决定能否形成采用者集群的市场销量)和集群性增长(因增长方式和速度不同表现为团簇性增长和爆炸性增长),这一切根源于产品采用者不同的空间分布及其动态变化的速度和方式。由于传统的概念测试、小组讨论、销量预测等市场研究方法由于无法应对新兴技术产品市场的高度不确定性而失效,刻画新兴技术产品市场必须有一种能够有效度量新兴技术产品采用者空间分布动态变化差异的工具。
本文采用嵌入小世界网络的元胞自动机(CASWN)建模并结合交叉熵测度的技术方法就是这样一个工具。它将新兴技术产品扩散借助于小世界网络的传播机制通过元胞自动机模拟演化得到采用者的动态分布,并利用交叉熵测度定量度量不同分布的差异和产品成功的概率。笔者通过对我国中部特大型城市武汉市MP4产品市场的CASWN建模仿真,实证表明采用嵌入小世界网络的元胞自动机模型并结合交叉熵测度技术能够较好地计量和预测我国新兴技术产品市场。本文的方法为我国新兴技术企业和风险投资机构以及公共经济管理部门更准确地计算和调整新兴技术产品项目的预期现金流和项目现值提供了一个新工具,进而也为准确计算新兴技术产品项目期权价值提供了一个基础条件。
新兴技术企业产品上市的成功,必然带来企业价值的迅速增大,于是新兴技术企业的价值评估乃至企业上市定价问题显得尤为重要。本文采用半参数计量经济模型结合自组织数据挖掘的GMDH算法构建了我国新兴技术企业的市场价值估计模型(定价模型),发现新兴技术企业价值的主要相关因素及其相关关系,并解释了投资者对新兴技术企业价值关注的“异常”表现。这些“异常”表现为：在公司治理方面,投资者关注的不是企业的资产负债情况,而是企业规模和收益总额；对于资产的流动性,投资者关注的不是流动资产的变现能力,而是新兴技术企业实物资产的利用及库存状况,而且新兴技术企业的市场价值与其公司规模负相关。
基于产品市场和企业价值的研究,本文最后总结和提出了我国新兴技术企业的主要特征及其函数表达,构建了我国新兴技术企业成长的三维特征模型。我国新兴技术企业的行业特征就是拥有信息技术、纳米技术、生物工程技术之中至少一个方面的高技术创新产品或服务的中小高新技术企业群落；技术特征就是具有序贯多阶段期权性质的不连续的技术创新、高度的不确定性及其显著边际效应和性能突破力；市场特征就是临界容量制约下滞后盈利型的集群性增长。新兴技术企业特征函数的基本功用在于：行业特征函数提供了识别中国新兴技术企业的标准；技术特征函数提供了新兴技术项目阶段投资的上限；市场特征函数提供了中国新兴技术项目产品上市初期投资的策略。本文构建的我国新兴技术企业的特征模型能够较准确地分析和判断我国新兴技术初创企业所处的发展阶段及其特点。特征函数和特征模型为我国新兴技术企业的运作管理,为风险投资机构的决策分析以及公共经济管理部门的政策管理提供了一个有效的分析方法,具有一定的应用价值。
Since the mid-20th century, Information technology-based Third Wave has been sweeping the world. Among new technologies, we are going to focus on emerging technology (ET), which has a characteristic of "creative destruction", and can create a new industry, change an existing industry or regional economic structure.
Because China has unique socio-cultural and Chinese market has a larger scale and extraordinary network effect than those of other countries, ET is of special strategic significance for Chinese enterprises. Once a large number of people adopt emerging technology products (ETPs) in China, then a large-scale, lucrative emerging market will be formed in a short period of time. So, a study on ETP diffusion and the characteristics of emerging technology firms (ETFs) is of great significance.
This research begins with a systematic review of literatures on new products diffusion. After analyzing characteristics of ETP diffusion, the market characteristics of ETF in China is summed up as follows:Technological improved ETP market shows an agglomerate growth with lagging profit; Technological breakthrough ETP market shows an explosive growth with lagging profit; Precocious ETP market withers away after a short hot pursuit of consumers. The keywords of market characteristics of ETP are critical sales and clustering growth (an agglomerate growth or explosive growth for different modes and/or different speeds of ETP diffusion). All those must be demonstrated with the dynamic changes of adopters spatial distribution. Due to the high uncertainty of ETP marketing, the traditional forecasting methods can not be applied to measure ETP marketing effectively. An effective tool, cellular automata model embedded small-world network and cross-entropy (CASWN-CE) method, has been found in this paper to measure the differences of adopters spatial distribution. Empirical research through analyzing and simulating the MP4 diffusion in Wuhan MP4 market shows that CASWN-CE is an effective method to measure ETP marketing and predict the success probabilities of ETPs in the regional market. Accordingly, a more accurate expected cash flow of ETP and the option value of ETP project can be calculated.
After the success of an ETP, the value of this ETF will increased rapidly. A semi-parametric model combined with GMDH is build to estimate the value of ETFs in this paper, empirical research discovers the validity of this model and explains some "abnormalities". These "abnormalities" is as follows:investors concern the quality of whole asset of an ETF more than each share, the utilization of real assets and inventory of an ETF more than liquidity of its liquid assets, and the value of an ETF is negative correlation with its size.
Finally, the characteristic function and feature model of ETFs are established in this paper. The industry characteristic of ETFs is clusters of SME engaged in innovative products or services of high-tech, at least one aspect of information technology, nanotechnology, bioengineering techniques; The technical characteristic of ETFs is a discrete technological innovation with the sequential multi-stage options, high uncertainty and its significant marginal effect and breaking power of performance; The market characteristic of ETFs is lagging-profited clustering growth under the constraint of critical sales. A three-dimensional feature model of ETFs can be used for analyzing and evaluating the growing stage and feature of an ETF. The characteristic function and feature model is provided here as a new tool for the management and strategy of ETF and venture capital policy, It has a guiding role.
引文
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