农户采用“麦—玉—豆”种植模式的影响因素研究
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摘要
中国大豆供求失衡,进口大豆凭借其低价格、高油脂含量的特点已占领国内70%的市场；而北方大豆种植面积增长空间有限,正面临连续种植带来重迎茬减产严重,土壤生态状况恶化,产销分离导致成本增加等不利因素。发展南方套作大豆是振兴我国大豆产业,保护我国粮食安全的必然之路。
南方是我国的主要农业生产区,自然条件优越,人多地少,套作大豆具有与主体粮食作物和谐共存、蛋白质含量高、利于发展加工业、减轻季节性灾害的优点,发展潜力巨大。“麦-玉-豆”种植模式是一种以大豆为核心的新型旱地多熟套作种植模式。自2003年起,在四川省内建立示范区进行推广,成效显著,种植面积逐年增加,但在广大非示范地区却发展缓慢,许多农户依然采用传统的耕作方式,新种植模式的技术未能真正实施。因此,本文通过对农户采用“麦-玉-豆”种植模式的影响因素进行研究,找出影响农户采用的关键因素,对于新农业技术采用率的提高和南方新型大豆种植规模的扩大,都具有现实的指导意义。
本文以行为理论和创新扩散理论为基础,借鉴已有学者的相关研究成果,通过问卷调查,以四川南充、广安、达州、遂宁、绵阳、简阳、泸州等12个地区439户农户的调查数据为样本,从内外部两个角度进行农户采用“麦-玉-豆”种植模式的单因素一般描述性分析；运用二元logistic模型,从农户个人特征、家庭特征、种植模式技术特征、环境特征四方面进一步定量研究农户采用“麦-玉-豆”种植模式的主要因素,并提出相关建议。主要研究结论如下：
(1)四川地区“麦-玉-豆”种植模式凭借良好的综合效益,播种面积增长迅速,但示范与非示范地区间发展水平差距巨大。主要原因是非示范区无政府政策和项目支撑,农户普遍未接受专业培训,相关技术采用率低,采用难题多依靠自身解决,故对该种植模式效益评价一般。加之新种植模式品种、农艺农具等配套技术研发滞后,导致新种植模式进一步推广面临严峻的挑战。
(2)对农户采用“麦-玉-豆”种植模式的影响因素进行实证研究的结果显示：农户的种植习惯、文化程度、生猪养殖、耕地规模、种植模式特征中的增加产量、减少劳动投入、改善土壤、节水抗旱和外部环境中政府政策、农技推广因素对农户有显著影响；而农户年龄、性别、特殊身份,经济收入来源、劳动力数量、种植模式防止病虫害特征、市场风险、膳食结构改变等因素对农户采用“麦-玉-豆”种植模式没有影响。
(3)根据“麦-玉-豆”种植模式发展概况和农户采用影响因素的分析,笔者对加快“麦-玉-豆”新型大豆种植模式的应用和推广提出了加大政府政策引导力度,建立适宜农业技术推广体系；加强科研单位配套技术研究,形成综合栽培技术体系；推进大豆产业开发,大力发展龙头企业；提高农民科学文化素质,转变传统耕作习惯；建立抛荒土地流转机制,扩大农户经营规模五个方面政策建议。
The domestic soybean supply is not enough for soybean demand in China, imported soybean with its low price and high oil-containing has occupied seventy percent of Chinese market. The soybean production in Norththern China is restricted by many unfavorable factors, such as limited growth in soybean planting area, yield decreasing induced by continuous-cropping, high cost by separating production from marketing areas, and so on. To develop relay-planting soybean in Southern China is very important for the soybean industry and food security of China.
Southern China with superior natural conditions and small cultivated area per person is a major agricultural production area in China, and the relay-planting soybean is encouraged by several obvious advantages, for example coexistence consonantly with other main crops, high protein content, benefits to soybean-food industry, the strong resistance to drought, high yield and income per unit area and so on " Wheat/Corn/Soybean " planting model which takes soybean as the key crop of its system is one of new arid land multi-ripe planting models. Since 2003, " Wheat/Corn/Soybean" planting model has been putting in practice in demonstration area in Sichuan province, and its planting area has increased year by year because of good comprehensive benefits. But it developed very slowly in other area, most extension area are still remained in the demonstrating stage. Traditional cultivating methods are being used by most of the farmers and their cultivating skills have not been improved. The core techniques of new planting model are not been put in practice actually. Finding out restrict factors in new planting model adoption through the analyzing of farmers adoption behavior in Sichuan country is very important for the promotion of new agricultural technology, and for the expansion of soybean planting area in south China.
My paper is based on the behavior theory and innovation diffusion theory, some successful study and questionnaires of 439 farmers in Nanchong, Guangan, Dazhou, Siuning, Mianyang, Jianyang, Luzhou and so twelve cities of Sichuan province. At first, the paper describes the overall statistics about the questionnaires, and analyzes the relationship between farmers'adoption and influence factors both from internal and external point of view. Second, author uses Binary-logistic model to analyze farmers' adoption on "Wheat/Corn/Soybean" planting model from four aspects, such as personal characteristics, family characteristics, technical characteristics of planting model and environmental characteristics to find the main influence factors. At last, the article gives five political suggestions.
According to results of theoretical and empirical research, three conclusions are drawn:
(1) With good comprehensive benefits, the planting area of" Wheat/Corn/Soybean" planting model has increased rapidly in Sichuan, but the development level of demonstration areas is different form non-demonstration areas, the gap between them is huge. Because lack of projects supported and government policies supported in non-demonstration areas, farmers generally did not receive professional training, their adoption rate of relevant technologies is low. And the most of farmers solve problems when adopting new planting model on their own. So the farmers'evaluation of comprehensive benefits of new planting model is general. Combined with the lack of technology research on new variety, agronomic and agricultural machinery, the further promotion of " Wheat/Corn/Soybean" is being challenged.
(2) The major influence factors of farmers'adoption are as follows:planting habit and education degree of farmer, cultivated area, pig-breeding, the technical characteristics of planting model such as yield increase, labor cutback, soil improvement, drought resistance, and government policy about new planting model, agricultural extension system. And these influence factors include the age, gender and social identity of farmer, and the main source of income, amount of labor, and the characteristics to prevent pests and diseases of planting model, and the marker risk, changes of diet which do not have any impact on farmers'adoption.
(3) Through the analysis of development situation and farmers'adoption of Wheat/Corn/Soybean" planting model, five political advices are suggested to promote the application and extension the of new planting model.①The government should strengthen the policy guidance and establish appropriate agricultural extension system.②As to establish the synthetic technique system of new planting model, research institutions should strengthen the research on matching technology such as new variety, agronomic and agricultural machinery.③In order to promote the industrial production of soybean, leading enterprises should be greatly developed.④The scientific and cultural qualities of farmers should be improved and their traditional farming practices should be changed.⑤As to expand planting scale of farmer, it is necessary to establish the transfer mechanism of rural abandoned land.
南方是我国的主要农业生产区,自然条件优越,人多地少,套作大豆具有与主体粮食作物和谐共存、蛋白质含量高、利于发展加工业、减轻季节性灾害的优点,发展潜力巨大。“麦-玉-豆”种植模式是一种以大豆为核心的新型旱地多熟套作种植模式。自2003年起,在四川省内建立示范区进行推广,成效显著,种植面积逐年增加,但在广大非示范地区却发展缓慢,许多农户依然采用传统的耕作方式,新种植模式的技术未能真正实施。因此,本文通过对农户采用“麦-玉-豆”种植模式的影响因素进行研究,找出影响农户采用的关键因素,对于新农业技术采用率的提高和南方新型大豆种植规模的扩大,都具有现实的指导意义。
本文以行为理论和创新扩散理论为基础,借鉴已有学者的相关研究成果,通过问卷调查,以四川南充、广安、达州、遂宁、绵阳、简阳、泸州等12个地区439户农户的调查数据为样本,从内外部两个角度进行农户采用“麦-玉-豆”种植模式的单因素一般描述性分析；运用二元logistic模型,从农户个人特征、家庭特征、种植模式技术特征、环境特征四方面进一步定量研究农户采用“麦-玉-豆”种植模式的主要因素,并提出相关建议。主要研究结论如下：
(1)四川地区“麦-玉-豆”种植模式凭借良好的综合效益,播种面积增长迅速,但示范与非示范地区间发展水平差距巨大。主要原因是非示范区无政府政策和项目支撑,农户普遍未接受专业培训,相关技术采用率低,采用难题多依靠自身解决,故对该种植模式效益评价一般。加之新种植模式品种、农艺农具等配套技术研发滞后,导致新种植模式进一步推广面临严峻的挑战。
(2)对农户采用“麦-玉-豆”种植模式的影响因素进行实证研究的结果显示：农户的种植习惯、文化程度、生猪养殖、耕地规模、种植模式特征中的增加产量、减少劳动投入、改善土壤、节水抗旱和外部环境中政府政策、农技推广因素对农户有显著影响；而农户年龄、性别、特殊身份,经济收入来源、劳动力数量、种植模式防止病虫害特征、市场风险、膳食结构改变等因素对农户采用“麦-玉-豆”种植模式没有影响。
(3)根据“麦-玉-豆”种植模式发展概况和农户采用影响因素的分析,笔者对加快“麦-玉-豆”新型大豆种植模式的应用和推广提出了加大政府政策引导力度,建立适宜农业技术推广体系；加强科研单位配套技术研究,形成综合栽培技术体系；推进大豆产业开发,大力发展龙头企业；提高农民科学文化素质,转变传统耕作习惯；建立抛荒土地流转机制,扩大农户经营规模五个方面政策建议。
The domestic soybean supply is not enough for soybean demand in China, imported soybean with its low price and high oil-containing has occupied seventy percent of Chinese market. The soybean production in Norththern China is restricted by many unfavorable factors, such as limited growth in soybean planting area, yield decreasing induced by continuous-cropping, high cost by separating production from marketing areas, and so on. To develop relay-planting soybean in Southern China is very important for the soybean industry and food security of China.
Southern China with superior natural conditions and small cultivated area per person is a major agricultural production area in China, and the relay-planting soybean is encouraged by several obvious advantages, for example coexistence consonantly with other main crops, high protein content, benefits to soybean-food industry, the strong resistance to drought, high yield and income per unit area and so on " Wheat/Corn/Soybean " planting model which takes soybean as the key crop of its system is one of new arid land multi-ripe planting models. Since 2003, " Wheat/Corn/Soybean" planting model has been putting in practice in demonstration area in Sichuan province, and its planting area has increased year by year because of good comprehensive benefits. But it developed very slowly in other area, most extension area are still remained in the demonstrating stage. Traditional cultivating methods are being used by most of the farmers and their cultivating skills have not been improved. The core techniques of new planting model are not been put in practice actually. Finding out restrict factors in new planting model adoption through the analyzing of farmers adoption behavior in Sichuan country is very important for the promotion of new agricultural technology, and for the expansion of soybean planting area in south China.
My paper is based on the behavior theory and innovation diffusion theory, some successful study and questionnaires of 439 farmers in Nanchong, Guangan, Dazhou, Siuning, Mianyang, Jianyang, Luzhou and so twelve cities of Sichuan province. At first, the paper describes the overall statistics about the questionnaires, and analyzes the relationship between farmers'adoption and influence factors both from internal and external point of view. Second, author uses Binary-logistic model to analyze farmers' adoption on "Wheat/Corn/Soybean" planting model from four aspects, such as personal characteristics, family characteristics, technical characteristics of planting model and environmental characteristics to find the main influence factors. At last, the article gives five political suggestions.
According to results of theoretical and empirical research, three conclusions are drawn:
(1) With good comprehensive benefits, the planting area of" Wheat/Corn/Soybean" planting model has increased rapidly in Sichuan, but the development level of demonstration areas is different form non-demonstration areas, the gap between them is huge. Because lack of projects supported and government policies supported in non-demonstration areas, farmers generally did not receive professional training, their adoption rate of relevant technologies is low. And the most of farmers solve problems when adopting new planting model on their own. So the farmers'evaluation of comprehensive benefits of new planting model is general. Combined with the lack of technology research on new variety, agronomic and agricultural machinery, the further promotion of " Wheat/Corn/Soybean" is being challenged.
(2) The major influence factors of farmers'adoption are as follows:planting habit and education degree of farmer, cultivated area, pig-breeding, the technical characteristics of planting model such as yield increase, labor cutback, soil improvement, drought resistance, and government policy about new planting model, agricultural extension system. And these influence factors include the age, gender and social identity of farmer, and the main source of income, amount of labor, and the characteristics to prevent pests and diseases of planting model, and the marker risk, changes of diet which do not have any impact on farmers'adoption.
(3) Through the analysis of development situation and farmers'adoption of Wheat/Corn/Soybean" planting model, five political advices are suggested to promote the application and extension the of new planting model.①The government should strengthen the policy guidance and establish appropriate agricultural extension system.②As to establish the synthetic technique system of new planting model, research institutions should strengthen the research on matching technology such as new variety, agronomic and agricultural machinery.③In order to promote the industrial production of soybean, leading enterprises should be greatly developed.④The scientific and cultural qualities of farmers should be improved and their traditional farming practices should be changed.⑤As to expand planting scale of farmer, it is necessary to establish the transfer mechanism of rural abandoned land.
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