综合运输通道客运结构优化理论与方法研究
|
摘要
交通运输是国民经济发展的命脉,发展高效协调的综合运输体系,是交通运输发展的必然趋势。综合运输通道是一个国家或区域内交通运输系统的重要组成形式,合理规划和建设各具特色的综合运输通道是发展综合运输体系的根本所在。目前,我国正处于综合运输通道大发展时期,但其理论的研究还较薄弱,尚未形成完整的理论体系,难以指导通道的规划和建设,所以系统地认识综合运输通道,研究其基础理论、客运需求、需求及供给层次、客运结构静态及动态发展趋势等一系列重大问题,建立相应的研究框架和理论体系,对综合运输通道的规划和建设具有重要的理论及实践指导意义。
论文首先对综合运输通道客运结构优化相关概念进行了辨析,对综合运输通道的分类与结构进行了研究,描述了串联、并联和混联三种结构的特点；剖析了综合运输通道客运结构演化的影响因素及机理；分析了综合运输通道影响区边界的界定方法,基于GIS方法,对京沪通道吸引范围进行了实证性研究。其次,利用系统动力学因果分析方法对综合运输通道客运需求影响因素及产生机理进行了刻画；重点分析了综合运输通道客运需求的静态特征、动态特征、质量需求特征、方式需求个性化特征等；对综合运输通道内的客运需求与供给进行了层次结构分析,并利用出行距离-时间价值双参数结合分类方法对综合运输通道内客运需求进行了分类,建立了模糊机会约束规划模型,对综合运输通道内旅客出行意愿进行了模型与理论上的探讨。再次,建立了综合运输通道客运需求总量预测的组合模型与OD需求预测的改进重力模型,预测了京沪通道客运需求。然后,对综合运输通道客运结构优化的目标和原则进行了描述；从静态层面,建立了综合运输通道客运结构优化双层多目标规划模型,其中：上层问题体现综合运输通道对沿线经济的拉动作用、系统效率、输送能力、运营投资等目标,下层为基于旅客出行意愿的交通方式选择方法,响应函数采用平衡系数、通道饱和熵指标,分别反映综合运输通道客运需求与沿线经济的适应程度、与供给匹配程度；设计了粒子群优化算法,并提出了京沪通道客运结构合理发展优化措施。最后,基于马尔可夫随机过程,从动态层面,建立了综合运输通道客运结构演化模型,并对模型参数进行了标定,对京沪通道客运结构进行了预测,并对其发展趋势进行了分析论证。
论文取得的主要成果包括：探讨了可操作性强且满足精度要求的综合运输通道影响区边界界定的GIS方法；重点分析了综合运输通道客运需求的静态特征、动态特征、质量需求特征、方式需求个性化特征,利用出行距离-时间价值双参数结合分类方法对综合运输通道内的客运需求及供给层次结构进行了研究,基于模糊机会约束规划理论对综合运输通道内旅客出行意愿进行了探讨；建立了综合运输通道客运需求总量预测的组合模型与OD需求预测的改进重力模型；从静态层面,建立了综合运输通道客运结构优化的双层多目标规划模型,并设计了求解该模型的粒子群算法；从动态层面,基于马尔可夫随机过程,预测了综合运输通道客运结构的演化趋势,形成了动静态相结合的综合运输通道客运结构优化理论,对综合运输通道客运系统建设及优化提供理论指导与技术支撑。
Transportation is the lifeline of national economy, and the development of highly effective coordinated comprehensive transportation corridor is the inexorable trend of traffic and transportation. Comprehensive transportation corridor is an important composition form of a country or region's transportation system, so rational planning and construction of comprehensive transportation corridor are the bases of developing comprehensive transportation system. At present, our country is in a period of great development of comprehensive transportation corridor, whereas the theoretical study is relatively weak, as there has not formed a complete theoretical system yet, which makes it difficult to guide the planning and construction of corridor. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to the planning and construction of comprehensive transportation corridors to have a systematic understanding of the comprehensive transportation corridor, to study important issues such as the basic theory, passenger demand, demand-supply levels, the static and dynamic development trends of passenger structure, etc., so as to establish its relevant research framework and theoretical system.
Firstly, concepts that related to passenger structure optimization in comprehensive transportation corridor were analyzed, its classification and structure had been researched followingly, and the characteristics of three kinds of structure including series, parallel and compound connection had also been described. Factors that affect passenger structure and its evolution mechanism of comprehensive transportation corridor were analyzed. The method of determining affect scope was analyzed about comprehensive transportation corridor, and this GIS based method was conducted on Beijing-Shanghai corridor as to determine its affecting scope.
Secondly,factors that influence passenger demand and its production mechanism have been characterized by making use of system dynamics in comprehensive transportation corridor.The static,dynamic,quality and personalization features of passenger demand in comprehensive transportation corridor have been focused on in succession.The hierarchical structure of passenger demand and supply within comprehensive transportation corridor was analysed by utilizing the combination of two parameters as trip distance and time value. At the end of this part, a fuzzy chance-constrained programming model was established to describe passenger's favor in comprehensive transportation corridor.
Thirdly, a combination model for total passenger demand forecasting and OD demand model based on improved gravity model of a comprehensive transportation corridor were establised in this section. And its application in Beijing-Shanghai corridor was also carried out successfully.
Fourthly,objectives and principles of structural optimization as to comprehensive transportation corridor has been described.From static aspect, a multi-objective bilevel programming model was set up to optimize passenger structure within comprehensive transportation corridor.In this model,the economical pulling effcet,system efficiency,transmission capacity,operation and investment goals,etc. have been included in the upper objective. While the lower model was based on passengers'travel selection behavior. A balanced coefficient and saturation entropy indicator were introduced in the response function,which reflects the adaptation degree between passenger demand and economy along corridor,the matching level between passenger demand and supply individually.Particle swarm optimization algorithm was designed to solve this model.Rational measures about passenger structure development in Beijing-Shanghai corridor was proposed in the end.
Finally, from dynamic point of view, the evolution model of passenger structure was established based on Markov process. Then parameters of this model were calibrated.After the application of this model in Beijing-Shanghai corridor'passenger structure prediction, the direction and trend of Beijing-Shanghai corridor'passenger structure development were analyzed and demonstrated.
The following are the main achievements of this dissertation:
(1) A GIS based method which is proper for determining influence area of comprehensive transportation corridor was discussed.
(2) The static,dynamic,quality and personalization characteristics of passenger demand in comprehensive transportation corridor were focused on,and the combination of trip distance-time value parameters was adopted in the classification of hierarchy about passenger demand and supply in comprehensive transportation corridor.And also a fuzzy chance-constrained programming model was established to describe passenger's favor in comprehensive transportation corridor.
(3) A combination model for total passenger demand forecasting and OD demand model based on improved gravity model of a comprehensive transportation corridor were establised.
(4) From static view,a multi-objective bi-level programming model was set up to optimize passenger structure within comprehensive transportation corridor. And particle swarm optimization algorithm was designed to solve this model.
(5) While from dynamic aspect, an evolution model of passenger structure was established based on Markov process.
论文首先对综合运输通道客运结构优化相关概念进行了辨析,对综合运输通道的分类与结构进行了研究,描述了串联、并联和混联三种结构的特点；剖析了综合运输通道客运结构演化的影响因素及机理；分析了综合运输通道影响区边界的界定方法,基于GIS方法,对京沪通道吸引范围进行了实证性研究。其次,利用系统动力学因果分析方法对综合运输通道客运需求影响因素及产生机理进行了刻画；重点分析了综合运输通道客运需求的静态特征、动态特征、质量需求特征、方式需求个性化特征等；对综合运输通道内的客运需求与供给进行了层次结构分析,并利用出行距离-时间价值双参数结合分类方法对综合运输通道内客运需求进行了分类,建立了模糊机会约束规划模型,对综合运输通道内旅客出行意愿进行了模型与理论上的探讨。再次,建立了综合运输通道客运需求总量预测的组合模型与OD需求预测的改进重力模型,预测了京沪通道客运需求。然后,对综合运输通道客运结构优化的目标和原则进行了描述；从静态层面,建立了综合运输通道客运结构优化双层多目标规划模型,其中：上层问题体现综合运输通道对沿线经济的拉动作用、系统效率、输送能力、运营投资等目标,下层为基于旅客出行意愿的交通方式选择方法,响应函数采用平衡系数、通道饱和熵指标,分别反映综合运输通道客运需求与沿线经济的适应程度、与供给匹配程度；设计了粒子群优化算法,并提出了京沪通道客运结构合理发展优化措施。最后,基于马尔可夫随机过程,从动态层面,建立了综合运输通道客运结构演化模型,并对模型参数进行了标定,对京沪通道客运结构进行了预测,并对其发展趋势进行了分析论证。
论文取得的主要成果包括：探讨了可操作性强且满足精度要求的综合运输通道影响区边界界定的GIS方法；重点分析了综合运输通道客运需求的静态特征、动态特征、质量需求特征、方式需求个性化特征,利用出行距离-时间价值双参数结合分类方法对综合运输通道内的客运需求及供给层次结构进行了研究,基于模糊机会约束规划理论对综合运输通道内旅客出行意愿进行了探讨；建立了综合运输通道客运需求总量预测的组合模型与OD需求预测的改进重力模型；从静态层面,建立了综合运输通道客运结构优化的双层多目标规划模型,并设计了求解该模型的粒子群算法；从动态层面,基于马尔可夫随机过程,预测了综合运输通道客运结构的演化趋势,形成了动静态相结合的综合运输通道客运结构优化理论,对综合运输通道客运系统建设及优化提供理论指导与技术支撑。
Transportation is the lifeline of national economy, and the development of highly effective coordinated comprehensive transportation corridor is the inexorable trend of traffic and transportation. Comprehensive transportation corridor is an important composition form of a country or region's transportation system, so rational planning and construction of comprehensive transportation corridor are the bases of developing comprehensive transportation system. At present, our country is in a period of great development of comprehensive transportation corridor, whereas the theoretical study is relatively weak, as there has not formed a complete theoretical system yet, which makes it difficult to guide the planning and construction of corridor. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to the planning and construction of comprehensive transportation corridors to have a systematic understanding of the comprehensive transportation corridor, to study important issues such as the basic theory, passenger demand, demand-supply levels, the static and dynamic development trends of passenger structure, etc., so as to establish its relevant research framework and theoretical system.
Firstly, concepts that related to passenger structure optimization in comprehensive transportation corridor were analyzed, its classification and structure had been researched followingly, and the characteristics of three kinds of structure including series, parallel and compound connection had also been described. Factors that affect passenger structure and its evolution mechanism of comprehensive transportation corridor were analyzed. The method of determining affect scope was analyzed about comprehensive transportation corridor, and this GIS based method was conducted on Beijing-Shanghai corridor as to determine its affecting scope.
Secondly,factors that influence passenger demand and its production mechanism have been characterized by making use of system dynamics in comprehensive transportation corridor.The static,dynamic,quality and personalization features of passenger demand in comprehensive transportation corridor have been focused on in succession.The hierarchical structure of passenger demand and supply within comprehensive transportation corridor was analysed by utilizing the combination of two parameters as trip distance and time value. At the end of this part, a fuzzy chance-constrained programming model was established to describe passenger's favor in comprehensive transportation corridor.
Thirdly, a combination model for total passenger demand forecasting and OD demand model based on improved gravity model of a comprehensive transportation corridor were establised in this section. And its application in Beijing-Shanghai corridor was also carried out successfully.
Fourthly,objectives and principles of structural optimization as to comprehensive transportation corridor has been described.From static aspect, a multi-objective bilevel programming model was set up to optimize passenger structure within comprehensive transportation corridor.In this model,the economical pulling effcet,system efficiency,transmission capacity,operation and investment goals,etc. have been included in the upper objective. While the lower model was based on passengers'travel selection behavior. A balanced coefficient and saturation entropy indicator were introduced in the response function,which reflects the adaptation degree between passenger demand and economy along corridor,the matching level between passenger demand and supply individually.Particle swarm optimization algorithm was designed to solve this model.Rational measures about passenger structure development in Beijing-Shanghai corridor was proposed in the end.
Finally, from dynamic point of view, the evolution model of passenger structure was established based on Markov process. Then parameters of this model were calibrated.After the application of this model in Beijing-Shanghai corridor'passenger structure prediction, the direction and trend of Beijing-Shanghai corridor'passenger structure development were analyzed and demonstrated.
The following are the main achievements of this dissertation:
(1) A GIS based method which is proper for determining influence area of comprehensive transportation corridor was discussed.
(2) The static,dynamic,quality and personalization characteristics of passenger demand in comprehensive transportation corridor were focused on,and the combination of trip distance-time value parameters was adopted in the classification of hierarchy about passenger demand and supply in comprehensive transportation corridor.And also a fuzzy chance-constrained programming model was established to describe passenger's favor in comprehensive transportation corridor.
(3) A combination model for total passenger demand forecasting and OD demand model based on improved gravity model of a comprehensive transportation corridor were establised.
(4) From static view,a multi-objective bi-level programming model was set up to optimize passenger structure within comprehensive transportation corridor. And particle swarm optimization algorithm was designed to solve this model.
(5) While from dynamic aspect, an evolution model of passenger structure was established based on Markov process.
引文
[1]Parsons-clough Harbor.Existing corridor conditions and opportunities-I-87 multimodal corridor study[R].New York:New York State Department of Transportation,2004.
[2]Reid Croether&Partners Ltd..Multimodal corridor transportation study-horseshoe bay to highway 97[R].New York:Ministry of Transportation& highway,2001.
[3]Yeates.Main Street:Windsor to Quebec City [M].Ottawa:The Macmillan Company of Cannada Limited,1975.
[4]Jifeng Wu, Gang-len Chang.An integrated optimal control and algorithm for commuting corridors [J].International Transportations in Operational Research,1999,6(1):39-55.
[5]Markos Papageorgiou.An integrated control approach for traffic corridors [J].Transportation Research C,1995,3(1):19-30.
[6]Cristina Diakaki,Markos Papageorgiou,Tom Mclean.Simulation studies of integrated corridor control in Glasgow[J].Transportation Research C,1997,5(3/4):211-224.
[7]Van Henggel.Citizens near the path of least resistance:travel behavior of century Freeway corridors residents [D].University of California, Ph.D,1996.
[8]Osuji, lifford Ihejirika.Impact of anticipated transportation improvement on land values in Chicago [D].University of Illinois at Chicago, Ph.D,1994.
[9]E.R.Petersen.A highway corridor planning model:QROAD [J].Transportation Research Part A.2002,36(2):107-125.
[10]Cambridge Systematics,Inc..Long-Term Availability-of Multimodal corridor Capacity [R]. England:Res. Agency,1996.
[11]William A.Hyman,Roemer M.Alfelor,Paul O.Roberts.Guidelines for Multimodal Corridor Capacity Analysis[A].In:Dearbon.Proceedings of the Sixth TRB[C].AlCO7,1997:104.
[12]Jon Bunker,Luis Ferreira.Assessing Freight Corridor Modal Performance[A].Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Transportation and Traffic Studies,Guilin, China.2002:1-10
[13]Ruth Banomyong.Multimodal Transport Corridors in South East Asia:A Case Study Approach [D].University of Wales, Ph.D,2000.
[14]Stephen R.Alderson, Yorgos J.Stephandees.Transportation Corridor Strategies and Land Use [J] Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol.112,No.1,January/February,1986:15-28.
[15]QY Wang.On the Methods and Practice of Integrated Transport Network Planning[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology 2005,5 (1):11-15.
[16]Lejoon Chang.A network-based model for market share estimation among competing transportation modes in a regional corridor [D].University of Maryland, Ph.D,2001.
[17]Hensher,D.A.A practical approach to identifying the market potential for High-Speed rail:A Case study in the Sydney-Canberra Corridor[J].Transportation Research A,Vol.31(6),1997.
[18]Hsu,C-I.,Chung,V-M.A model for market share distribution between High-Speed ans conventional rail services in a transportation corridor[J].The Annals of Regional science, Vol.31(2).
[19]Carey.G.W.Accessibility,Urbanization and Transportation:Towards an operational Model Transport Policy and Urban Rank:A Model for the Optimization of Transport Infrastructure [A].The transport Geography Study Group at the Department of Geography,University of Salford.
[20]Celant,A.Demographic Dynamic and Activity Changes [A].Transport Policy and Urban Development:Methodology and Evaluation.The Transport Geography Study Group at the Department of Geography,University of Salford,1989.
[21]Lin,G.C.S. Transportation and Metropolitan Development in China's Pearl River Delta:the Experience of Panyu,1999.
[22]Rodrigue,J.P.The Overview of Transportation corridors in Asian Urban Regions [R].1994.
[23]Baerwald,Thomas,J.The Emergence of a New down-town [J]. The Geographical Review, Vol.68(3),1978.
[24]Sutton,C.J.Land use change along Denver's I-225 Beltway[J]. Journal of Transport Geography,1999:7,pp:31-34.
[25]Fuller,J.,Hokanson,B.Measurements of highway user interference costs and air pollution and noise damage costs[R]. Institution of urban and regional research,University of Iowa,1983.
[26]Levinson,D.,Gillen,D.,Kanafani,A.The full cost of intercity transportation:A comparison of high speed rail,air,and highway transportation in California[R]. Institute of transportation studies,University of California at Berkley,1996.
[27]Verhoef,E.External effects and social costs of road transport[J]. Transportation Research A,Vol.28(4):273-287,1994.
[28]Lushu Li, K.K.Lai, A fuzzy approach to the multiobjective transportation problem (J). Computers & Operations Research.. Volume 27, Issue 1, January 2000:43-57.
[29]Yinzhen Li, Kenichi Ida and Mitsuo Gen, Improved genetic algorithm for solving multiobjective solid transportation problem with fuzzy numbers(J).Computers & Industrial Engineering. Volume 33, Issues 3-4, December 1997:589-592.
[30]E.E.Ammar, E.A.Youness, Study on multiobjective transportation problem with fuzzy numbers (J). Applied Mathematics and Computation, Volume 166, Issue 2,15 July 2005:241-253.
[31]付慧敏.运输通道公铁系统协调发展研究[D]西安：长安大学,2006：9.
[32]张文尝.运输通道系统分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2001,1(2)：134-139.
[33]张文尝,金凤君,荣朝和等.空间运输联系[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,1992：69-72.
[34]袁婧.运输通道内运输方式布局探讨[J].交通标准化,2006,4：157-160.
[35]陈芳.市区对外路网中通道的功能分析及系统配置研究[D].西南交通大学,工学硕士论文,2005：5-6.
[36]王元庆,贺竹馨.多方式协调发展的运输通道布局规划体系[J].交通运输工程学报,2004：4(3)：73-78.
[37]黄承锋.运输通道合理运行及经济聚集作用[D].重庆大学,工学博士论文,2001：13,27,33-66.
[38]曹小暑,阎小培.20世纪走廊与交通走廊研究进展[J].城市规划,2003：27(1)：2-3.
[39]韩增林,杨荫凯,张文尝等.交通经济带的基础理论及其生命周期模式研究[J].地理科学,2000：14(4)：2-7.
[40]龙飞,韩增林.高速公路产业经济带形成演化研究[J].中国软科学,2000：14(5)：99-103.
[41]韩增林,龙飞,张小军.高速公路经济带形成演化机制与布局规划方法探讨[J].地理研究,2001：15(04)：84-91.
[42]王建伟.空间运输联系与运输通道系统合理配置研究[D].西安：长安大学,2004.
[43]朱健梅.西南地区交通运输发展战略研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2002：72-75.
[44]毛敏.城市化进程中区域客运走廊的发展研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2005：47-50
[45]江小群.我国运输通道的空间格局及演化趋势[J].地理学与国土研究,1991：7(1)：26-30.
[46]黄承锋,杨秀苔,李毅.运输通道市场结构变动的静态博弈分析[J].重庆交通学院学报,2000：19(4)：106-109.
[47]朱健梅.竞争性运输通道选择的博弈模型研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2003：38(1)：336-340.
[48]朱晓海.通道客运交通需求分析[D].成都：西南交通大学,2007：10-13.
[49]朱晓宁.集装箱多式联运通道规划理论与方法[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2002：69-72.
[50]高媛丽.东北地区集装箱多式联运通道发展分析[D].大连海事大学,工学硕士论文,2004.
[51]孔庆瑜,施其洲,孙焰,王永立,基于多目标决策的集装箱物流通道研究(J).同济大学学报(自然科学版),2005；(4)：476-481.
[52]苏小军,罗霞,陈高波等.AHP法在成渝物流通道合理化选择中的应用[J].重庆交通学院学报,2004：23(3)：111-114.
[53]王春芝.国际物流通道优选理论方法与实证研究[D].吉林大学,工学博士论文,2004.
[54]王春芝,金俊武,李延忠.灰色局势决策理论在国际物流通道选择中的应用研究[J].公路交通科技,2002,19(5)：160-162.
[55]胡文友,李旭宏.公路运输通道内的车辆出行路径选择模型及应用研究[J].公路交通科技,2003：20(1)：125-129.
[56]张曾种.道路运输通道交通特性研究[D].西安：长安大学,2002：5-6,7-11.
[57]彭辉,付慧敏.北京-郑州运输通道内旅客出行的特征[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2005,11：66-69.
[58]李茜.京沪通道：旅客运输方式选择分析[J].综合运输,2006,4：65-68.
[59]南敬林.京沪通道旅客行为时间价值研究[J].铁道经济研究,2002(3)：36-38。
[60]李群仁,曾会欣,张力.京沪走廊各种运输方式的社会成本[J].中国铁路,2009：(6)6-9
[61]胡叶平,张超.对京沪高速铁路潜在市场的调查分析[J].上海铁道科技,2002：(2)7-8
[62]国家计委综合运输所.我国各种运输方式协调发展结构优化研究[R].北京：国家计委综合运输研究所,1998：18-20.
[63]樊彦龙.关于我国运输通道客运交通结构的研究[D].西安：长安大学,2004.
[64]段国钦.交通走廊运输需求分析及其运输结构优化研究[D].西安：西安公路交通大学,2000.
[65]张浩然,任刚,王炜.非集计模型在交通方式结构预测中的应用[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2008,10：44-49.
[66]徐利民.交通运输结构规划理论研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2004.
[67]荣朝和.论运输化[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,1993.
[68]赵一平,胡安洲.运输结构演变的理论分析[J].重庆交通学院学报,1993,12：1-8.
[69]王明志.运输供给与运输需求平衡论[M].匕京：人民交通出版社,1998：
[70]郭延结.运输结构合理化的评价原则和标准[J].公路交通科技,1993,2：54-62.
[71]洪卫,乔乐中,张运.可持续发展与运输结构变动[J].重庆交通学院学报,2001,1：50-54.
[72]李友好.基于综合运输的运输通道理论与实证研究[D].上海：同济大学,2005.
[73]李友好,刘晓佳,施其洲.基于网络的运输通道客运流量分配模型(J).交通运输工程与信息学报,2005；(6)：57-62.
[74]刘舒燕.多种运输方式综合运输优化模型研究[J].交通科技,2000：25(5)：50-51.
[75]李德刚.综合运输网中的通道分析与系统配置研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2004.
[76]李德刚,罗霞.基于用户的综合运输通道结构配置(J).西南交通大学学报,2005；(4)：249-253.
[77]周敏,王成钢.综合运输中理想运力分配模型[J].长沙航空职业技术学院学报,2004,12：32-39.
[78]黄苏才,王静.高速公路通道运输结构合理配置模型研究[J].华东公路,1999：21(5)：17-20.
[79]邱玉琢,陈森发.综合运输通道客运结构配置的随机饱和熵模型(J).交通运输工程学报,2007.4,Vo1.7 No.2：104-108.
[80]石琴,黄志鹏,王远,杨祖昆.一种多目标运输问题的优化模型(J).合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版)2006；(6)：772-774.
[81]王涛,王刚.一种多式联运网络运输方式的组合优化模式[J].中国工程科学,2005,10：46-50.
[82]张涛.区域运输通道内旅客出行方式选择研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2007.
[83]四兵锋,赵小梅,高自友.综合运输体系下的客运流量分离模型及算法研究[J].铁道学报,2004,26(6)：14-19.
[84]陈善亮.区域旅客运输供需及方式分担研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2004.
[85]陈星光,周晶,朱振涛.城市交通出行方式选择的演化博弈分析[J].管理工程学报,2009,23(2)：140-142.
[86]徐永能,李旭宏,朱彦东,施树明.城市居民出行方式选择的满意准则模型[J].交通与计算机,2005,23(4)：54-57.
[87]宋洁.城市居民出行方式选择预测方法研究[D].吉林：吉林大学,2005.
[88]陈卓.城市居民对外出行方式选择研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2005.
[89]黄树森,宋瑞,陶媛.大城市居民出行方式选择行为及影响因素研究[J].交通标准化,2008,181(9)：124-128.
[90]胡华,腾靖,高云峰,周雪梅.多模式公交信息服务条件下的出行方式选择行为研究[J].中国公路学报,2009,22(2)：87-92.
[91]戴玲玲.高速铁路与其他运输方式竞争关系研究——以京沪线为例[D].北京：北京交通大学,2009.
[92]罗建,薛锋.基于改进蚁群优化算法的客运专线旅客出行方式选择[J].系统工程,2008,26(1)：82-85.
[93]张海丽.基于概率神经网络的出行方式选择预测方法研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2008.
[94]鲜于建川,隽志才.基于知识的神经网络在出行方式选择中的应用研究[J].计算机应用研究,2008,25(9)：2651-2654.
[95]袁传镔.客运专线的修建对城际旅客出行的影响研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2007.
[96]李欢,毛保华,何宇强,丁勇,林琳.石太客运通道内影响旅客选择交通工具的因素分析[J].北京交通大学学报,2008,7(2)：86-88.
[97]左大杰.我国大城市市郊运输系统若干问题的研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2004.
[98]顾朝林.济南城市经济影响区的划分[J].地理科学,1992,(2)：15-16.
[99]周一星.城市地理学[M].北京：商务印书馆,1995.
[100]周焱,徐建刚.基于GIS的交通经济带空间边界界定方法研究-以沪宁杭高速公路经济带为例[J].世界地理研究,2003,12(2)：79-85.
[101]王铮,丁金宏.理论地理学概论[M].北京：科学出版社,2000：170-172.
[102]陈田.中国城市经济影响区域系统的初步分析[J].地理学报,1987,(4)：308-318.
[103]顾朝林.城市经济区理论与应用[M].长春：吉林科学技术出版社,1991：8-10.
[104]王德,赵锦华.城镇体系分析系统的升级开发与研究[J].城市规划,2002,26(8)：60-64.
[105]王德,郭洁.沪宁杭地区城市影响腹地的划分及其动态变化研究[J].城市规划汇刊,2003,148(6)：6-11.
[106]王德,项日丙.中心城市影响腹地的动态变化研究[J].同济大学学报,2006,34(9)：1175-1179.
[107]曹鸿兴.系统周界的一般理论——界壳论[M].北京：科学出版社,1997：36-51
[108]夏飞,陈修谦.高速公路经济带边界模型的构建及实证分析[J].系统工程,2004,22(12)：101-104.
[109]姚永春.高速公路产业带形成机理及其边界划分方法研究[D].长安大学,工学硕士论文,1999： 8-13.
[110]黄承锋.封闭通道出入口聚集作用理论模型及扩展[J].中国公路学报,2004：17(1)：98-102.
[111]梅振宇,陈峻,王炜等.区域运输走廊形成机理及其界定分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2003：1(2)：91-96.
[112]N.D. Lea Transportation Research Corporation, N.D.Lea&Associates,Ltd.Dictionary of pubic transport [M].Washington, D.C.:Dusseldorf:Alba Buchverlag.
[113]William L.Garrison.Basic research on transportation facilities [J].Transportation Research Part A:General,1985,19(5-6):511-518.
[114]张国伍.交通运输系统分析[M].成都：西南交大出版社,1991：104-119.
[115]刘舒燕.交通运输系统工程[M].北京：人民交通出版社,1998：32-33.
[116]成耀荣.综合运输学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2003：3-4,50-51,59-60.
[117]张磊,杨艳.道路货运结构的问题及调整[J]现代企业,2007,11：30-31.
[118]吴丰.消费市场营销[M].成都：成都科技大学出版社,1999.
[119]Fariba Alamdari.Airline in-flight entertainment:the passenger' perspective [J].Journal of Air Transport Management,1999,5:203-209.
[120]王庆云.交通运输发展理论与实践.[M].北京：中国科学技术,2006.
[121]胡思继.交通运输学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2001.
[122]王庆云.综合运输体系的建设与发展[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2002,8：56-60.
[123]吴群琪,马暕.对运输需求理论问题的再认识[J].综合运输,2004,3：8-11.
[124]马运.运输需求的特性及其分析特点[J].北方交通大学学报,1994,18(3)：426-430.
[125]刘宝碇,赵瑞清.随机规划与模糊规划[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1998,95-116.
[126]Charnes A,Cooper WW.Chance-constrained programming[J].Management Science,1959, 6(1):73-79.
[127]Luhandjula MK.Linear programming under randomness and fuzziness[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1983,10:45-55.
[128]Yazenin AV.Fuzzy and stochastic programming[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1987,22:171-180.
[129]Zadeh LA.Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1978,1: 3-28.
[130]Liu B,Iwamura K.Modelling stochastic decision systems using dependent-chance programming[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1997,101(1):193-203.
[131]Liu B,Iwamura K.Chance constrained programming with fuzzy parameters [J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1998,94 (2):227-237.
[132]Faraway J.,Chatfield C.Time series forecasting with neural networks:a comparative study using the air line data[J].Applied Statistics,1998.47 (2),pp.231-250.
[133]晏启鹏,朱云初,陈向辉.运输量预测的递进综合推定法[J].西南交通大学学报,1996：31(5)：501-505.
[134]李娟.相关系数法在通道交通需求预测中的应用[J].中国公路学报,2006,19(5)：98-101.
[135]周伟,李竞.公路运输量预测的广义线性混合回归模型[J].中国公路学报,1995：8(4)：84-89.
[136]王艳荣.预测公路干线交通量的方法——兼论回归法[J].辽宁交通科技,1996：19(1)：16-28.
[137]杨荣英,苗张木,沈成武.BP神经网络主成分分析法在交通需求预测中的应用[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版)2002,26(3)：386-388.
[138]后锐,张毕西.基于MLP神经网络的区域物流需求预测方法及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005.12,：43-47.
[139]崔德光,吴淑宁,徐冰.空中交通流量预测的人工神经网络和回归组合方法[J].清华大学学报,2005：45(1)：96-99.
[140]宋玉恒,乔建刚.基于灰色模型的怀来公路货运量预测的研究[J].物流科技,2009：(10)：40-42.
[141]王云鹏,杨志发,李世武,隗海林,王利芳.基于系统动力学的道路运输量预测模型[J]吉林大学学报(工学版).2005,35(4)：426-430.
[142]石飞,王炜,陆建.居民出行生成预测方法的归纳和创新[J].城市交通,2005：3(1)：43-46.
[143]刘安,宋伟芳,杨佩昆.出行生成预测模型的研究[J].同济大学学报,1998：26(3)：290-293.
[144]王正,刘安,郑萍.广义Logit交通方式划分预测方法[J].同济大学学报,1999：27(3)：314-318.
[145]Gerken J.Generalized logit model [J].Transportation Research Part B,1991:25 (1):75-88.
[146]Rodrigo A.Garrido,Hani S.Mahmassani, Forecasting freight transportation demand with the space-time multinomial probit model, Transportation Research Part B,1999.6,pp.403-418.
[147]潘莉.组合预测模型在城市公共交通需求预测中的应用[D].合肥工业大学：工学硕士论文,2005：28-31.
[148]吴文征.交通运输供给与需求均衡的理论研究与实证研究[D].长安大学,硕士论文,2005：8-13.
[149]赵志刚,顾新一,李陶深.求解双层规划模型的粒子群优化算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007(8)：92-98.
[150]Shi Y,Eberhart R C.A modified particle swarm optimizer[C] IEEE World Congress on Computational Intelligence,1998:69-73.
[151]吕振肃,侯志荣.自适应变异的粒子群优化算法[J].电子学报2004：32(3)：416-420.
[152]铁道部运输局.全国铁路各线区间通过能力[M].铁道部运输局,2001.10.
[153]中华人民共和国铁道部.铁路区间通过能力计算办法[S].北京：中华人民共和国铁道部,1984：2-3.
[154]中华人民共和国交通部.公路工程技术标准[JTG B01-2003].
[155]吴文化,中国交通运输效率评价体系研究分析(J)综合运输,2001.；(2.)：37-39.
[156]张力,李群仁.几种重要运输方式的外部成本计算分析(J),铁道运输与经济,2000,22(1)：36-38.
[157]高田润(日),柳苇.铁路运输与其他运输方式环境负荷的对比分析(J).国外内燃机车2003,(4)：27-31.
[158]胡思继,综合运输工程学(D).北京交通大学,2005.
[159]张铱莹.客运专线对区际运输通道的影响研究[D].成都：西南交通大学硕士学位论文,2004：25-27.
[160]梁倩.运输需求与运输供给能力分析[D].北京：北京交通大学硕士学位论文,2004.
[161]李群仁,曾会欣,张力.京沪走廊各种运输方式的社会成本[J].中国铁路,1996,6：6-9.
[162]徐创军,杨立中,杨红薇,贺玉龙,熊风.运输系统生态可持续性评价指标体系的研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2007,29(5)：4-7.
[163]王建伟.基于交通效率的城市交通规划理论研究[D].清华大学,博士学位论文,2003：67-79.
[164]徐永能.大城市公共客运交通系统结构演化机理与优化方法研究[D].南京：东南大学博士学位论文,2006：118-119.
[165]樊彦龙.关于我国运输通道客运交通结构的研究[D].西安：长安大学,硕士学位论文,2004：32-33.
[166]聂伟.都市圈道路网络优化及其评价理论研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,博士学位论文,2007：43-54.
[167]铁道第三勘察设计院、铁道第四勘察设计院、北京全路通信信号研究设计院、中铁电气化勘测设计研究院、中铁大桥勘测设计院.新建铁路：北京至上海高速铁路可行性研究(修改版)第一篇总说明书[R].天津：铁道第三勘察设计院,2006.10.
[168]铁道第三勘察设计院、铁道第四勘察设计院、北京全路通信信号研究设计院、中铁电气化勘测设计研究院、中铁大桥勘测设计院.新建铁路：北京至上海高速铁路初步设计总说明书[R].天津：铁道第三勘察设计院集团有限公司,2007.1.
[2]Reid Croether&Partners Ltd..Multimodal corridor transportation study-horseshoe bay to highway 97[R].New York:Ministry of Transportation& highway,2001.
[3]Yeates.Main Street:Windsor to Quebec City [M].Ottawa:The Macmillan Company of Cannada Limited,1975.
[4]Jifeng Wu, Gang-len Chang.An integrated optimal control and algorithm for commuting corridors [J].International Transportations in Operational Research,1999,6(1):39-55.
[5]Markos Papageorgiou.An integrated control approach for traffic corridors [J].Transportation Research C,1995,3(1):19-30.
[6]Cristina Diakaki,Markos Papageorgiou,Tom Mclean.Simulation studies of integrated corridor control in Glasgow[J].Transportation Research C,1997,5(3/4):211-224.
[7]Van Henggel.Citizens near the path of least resistance:travel behavior of century Freeway corridors residents [D].University of California, Ph.D,1996.
[8]Osuji, lifford Ihejirika.Impact of anticipated transportation improvement on land values in Chicago [D].University of Illinois at Chicago, Ph.D,1994.
[9]E.R.Petersen.A highway corridor planning model:QROAD [J].Transportation Research Part A.2002,36(2):107-125.
[10]Cambridge Systematics,Inc..Long-Term Availability-of Multimodal corridor Capacity [R]. England:Res. Agency,1996.
[11]William A.Hyman,Roemer M.Alfelor,Paul O.Roberts.Guidelines for Multimodal Corridor Capacity Analysis[A].In:Dearbon.Proceedings of the Sixth TRB[C].AlCO7,1997:104.
[12]Jon Bunker,Luis Ferreira.Assessing Freight Corridor Modal Performance[A].Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Transportation and Traffic Studies,Guilin, China.2002:1-10
[13]Ruth Banomyong.Multimodal Transport Corridors in South East Asia:A Case Study Approach [D].University of Wales, Ph.D,2000.
[14]Stephen R.Alderson, Yorgos J.Stephandees.Transportation Corridor Strategies and Land Use [J] Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol.112,No.1,January/February,1986:15-28.
[15]QY Wang.On the Methods and Practice of Integrated Transport Network Planning[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology 2005,5 (1):11-15.
[16]Lejoon Chang.A network-based model for market share estimation among competing transportation modes in a regional corridor [D].University of Maryland, Ph.D,2001.
[17]Hensher,D.A.A practical approach to identifying the market potential for High-Speed rail:A Case study in the Sydney-Canberra Corridor[J].Transportation Research A,Vol.31(6),1997.
[18]Hsu,C-I.,Chung,V-M.A model for market share distribution between High-Speed ans conventional rail services in a transportation corridor[J].The Annals of Regional science, Vol.31(2).
[19]Carey.G.W.Accessibility,Urbanization and Transportation:Towards an operational Model Transport Policy and Urban Rank:A Model for the Optimization of Transport Infrastructure [A].The transport Geography Study Group at the Department of Geography,University of Salford.
[20]Celant,A.Demographic Dynamic and Activity Changes [A].Transport Policy and Urban Development:Methodology and Evaluation.The Transport Geography Study Group at the Department of Geography,University of Salford,1989.
[21]Lin,G.C.S. Transportation and Metropolitan Development in China's Pearl River Delta:the Experience of Panyu,1999.
[22]Rodrigue,J.P.The Overview of Transportation corridors in Asian Urban Regions [R].1994.
[23]Baerwald,Thomas,J.The Emergence of a New down-town [J]. The Geographical Review, Vol.68(3),1978.
[24]Sutton,C.J.Land use change along Denver's I-225 Beltway[J]. Journal of Transport Geography,1999:7,pp:31-34.
[25]Fuller,J.,Hokanson,B.Measurements of highway user interference costs and air pollution and noise damage costs[R]. Institution of urban and regional research,University of Iowa,1983.
[26]Levinson,D.,Gillen,D.,Kanafani,A.The full cost of intercity transportation:A comparison of high speed rail,air,and highway transportation in California[R]. Institute of transportation studies,University of California at Berkley,1996.
[27]Verhoef,E.External effects and social costs of road transport[J]. Transportation Research A,Vol.28(4):273-287,1994.
[28]Lushu Li, K.K.Lai, A fuzzy approach to the multiobjective transportation problem (J). Computers & Operations Research.. Volume 27, Issue 1, January 2000:43-57.
[29]Yinzhen Li, Kenichi Ida and Mitsuo Gen, Improved genetic algorithm for solving multiobjective solid transportation problem with fuzzy numbers(J).Computers & Industrial Engineering. Volume 33, Issues 3-4, December 1997:589-592.
[30]E.E.Ammar, E.A.Youness, Study on multiobjective transportation problem with fuzzy numbers (J). Applied Mathematics and Computation, Volume 166, Issue 2,15 July 2005:241-253.
[31]付慧敏.运输通道公铁系统协调发展研究[D]西安：长安大学,2006：9.
[32]张文尝.运输通道系统分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2001,1(2)：134-139.
[33]张文尝,金凤君,荣朝和等.空间运输联系[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,1992：69-72.
[34]袁婧.运输通道内运输方式布局探讨[J].交通标准化,2006,4：157-160.
[35]陈芳.市区对外路网中通道的功能分析及系统配置研究[D].西南交通大学,工学硕士论文,2005：5-6.
[36]王元庆,贺竹馨.多方式协调发展的运输通道布局规划体系[J].交通运输工程学报,2004：4(3)：73-78.
[37]黄承锋.运输通道合理运行及经济聚集作用[D].重庆大学,工学博士论文,2001：13,27,33-66.
[38]曹小暑,阎小培.20世纪走廊与交通走廊研究进展[J].城市规划,2003：27(1)：2-3.
[39]韩增林,杨荫凯,张文尝等.交通经济带的基础理论及其生命周期模式研究[J].地理科学,2000：14(4)：2-7.
[40]龙飞,韩增林.高速公路产业经济带形成演化研究[J].中国软科学,2000：14(5)：99-103.
[41]韩增林,龙飞,张小军.高速公路经济带形成演化机制与布局规划方法探讨[J].地理研究,2001：15(04)：84-91.
[42]王建伟.空间运输联系与运输通道系统合理配置研究[D].西安：长安大学,2004.
[43]朱健梅.西南地区交通运输发展战略研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2002：72-75.
[44]毛敏.城市化进程中区域客运走廊的发展研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2005：47-50
[45]江小群.我国运输通道的空间格局及演化趋势[J].地理学与国土研究,1991：7(1)：26-30.
[46]黄承锋,杨秀苔,李毅.运输通道市场结构变动的静态博弈分析[J].重庆交通学院学报,2000：19(4)：106-109.
[47]朱健梅.竞争性运输通道选择的博弈模型研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2003：38(1)：336-340.
[48]朱晓海.通道客运交通需求分析[D].成都：西南交通大学,2007：10-13.
[49]朱晓宁.集装箱多式联运通道规划理论与方法[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2002：69-72.
[50]高媛丽.东北地区集装箱多式联运通道发展分析[D].大连海事大学,工学硕士论文,2004.
[51]孔庆瑜,施其洲,孙焰,王永立,基于多目标决策的集装箱物流通道研究(J).同济大学学报(自然科学版),2005；(4)：476-481.
[52]苏小军,罗霞,陈高波等.AHP法在成渝物流通道合理化选择中的应用[J].重庆交通学院学报,2004：23(3)：111-114.
[53]王春芝.国际物流通道优选理论方法与实证研究[D].吉林大学,工学博士论文,2004.
[54]王春芝,金俊武,李延忠.灰色局势决策理论在国际物流通道选择中的应用研究[J].公路交通科技,2002,19(5)：160-162.
[55]胡文友,李旭宏.公路运输通道内的车辆出行路径选择模型及应用研究[J].公路交通科技,2003：20(1)：125-129.
[56]张曾种.道路运输通道交通特性研究[D].西安：长安大学,2002：5-6,7-11.
[57]彭辉,付慧敏.北京-郑州运输通道内旅客出行的特征[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2005,11：66-69.
[58]李茜.京沪通道：旅客运输方式选择分析[J].综合运输,2006,4：65-68.
[59]南敬林.京沪通道旅客行为时间价值研究[J].铁道经济研究,2002(3)：36-38。
[60]李群仁,曾会欣,张力.京沪走廊各种运输方式的社会成本[J].中国铁路,2009：(6)6-9
[61]胡叶平,张超.对京沪高速铁路潜在市场的调查分析[J].上海铁道科技,2002：(2)7-8
[62]国家计委综合运输所.我国各种运输方式协调发展结构优化研究[R].北京：国家计委综合运输研究所,1998：18-20.
[63]樊彦龙.关于我国运输通道客运交通结构的研究[D].西安：长安大学,2004.
[64]段国钦.交通走廊运输需求分析及其运输结构优化研究[D].西安：西安公路交通大学,2000.
[65]张浩然,任刚,王炜.非集计模型在交通方式结构预测中的应用[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2008,10：44-49.
[66]徐利民.交通运输结构规划理论研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2004.
[67]荣朝和.论运输化[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,1993.
[68]赵一平,胡安洲.运输结构演变的理论分析[J].重庆交通学院学报,1993,12：1-8.
[69]王明志.运输供给与运输需求平衡论[M].匕京：人民交通出版社,1998：
[70]郭延结.运输结构合理化的评价原则和标准[J].公路交通科技,1993,2：54-62.
[71]洪卫,乔乐中,张运.可持续发展与运输结构变动[J].重庆交通学院学报,2001,1：50-54.
[72]李友好.基于综合运输的运输通道理论与实证研究[D].上海：同济大学,2005.
[73]李友好,刘晓佳,施其洲.基于网络的运输通道客运流量分配模型(J).交通运输工程与信息学报,2005；(6)：57-62.
[74]刘舒燕.多种运输方式综合运输优化模型研究[J].交通科技,2000：25(5)：50-51.
[75]李德刚.综合运输网中的通道分析与系统配置研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2004.
[76]李德刚,罗霞.基于用户的综合运输通道结构配置(J).西南交通大学学报,2005；(4)：249-253.
[77]周敏,王成钢.综合运输中理想运力分配模型[J].长沙航空职业技术学院学报,2004,12：32-39.
[78]黄苏才,王静.高速公路通道运输结构合理配置模型研究[J].华东公路,1999：21(5)：17-20.
[79]邱玉琢,陈森发.综合运输通道客运结构配置的随机饱和熵模型(J).交通运输工程学报,2007.4,Vo1.7 No.2：104-108.
[80]石琴,黄志鹏,王远,杨祖昆.一种多目标运输问题的优化模型(J).合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版)2006；(6)：772-774.
[81]王涛,王刚.一种多式联运网络运输方式的组合优化模式[J].中国工程科学,2005,10：46-50.
[82]张涛.区域运输通道内旅客出行方式选择研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2007.
[83]四兵锋,赵小梅,高自友.综合运输体系下的客运流量分离模型及算法研究[J].铁道学报,2004,26(6)：14-19.
[84]陈善亮.区域旅客运输供需及方式分担研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2004.
[85]陈星光,周晶,朱振涛.城市交通出行方式选择的演化博弈分析[J].管理工程学报,2009,23(2)：140-142.
[86]徐永能,李旭宏,朱彦东,施树明.城市居民出行方式选择的满意准则模型[J].交通与计算机,2005,23(4)：54-57.
[87]宋洁.城市居民出行方式选择预测方法研究[D].吉林：吉林大学,2005.
[88]陈卓.城市居民对外出行方式选择研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2005.
[89]黄树森,宋瑞,陶媛.大城市居民出行方式选择行为及影响因素研究[J].交通标准化,2008,181(9)：124-128.
[90]胡华,腾靖,高云峰,周雪梅.多模式公交信息服务条件下的出行方式选择行为研究[J].中国公路学报,2009,22(2)：87-92.
[91]戴玲玲.高速铁路与其他运输方式竞争关系研究——以京沪线为例[D].北京：北京交通大学,2009.
[92]罗建,薛锋.基于改进蚁群优化算法的客运专线旅客出行方式选择[J].系统工程,2008,26(1)：82-85.
[93]张海丽.基于概率神经网络的出行方式选择预测方法研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2008.
[94]鲜于建川,隽志才.基于知识的神经网络在出行方式选择中的应用研究[J].计算机应用研究,2008,25(9)：2651-2654.
[95]袁传镔.客运专线的修建对城际旅客出行的影响研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2007.
[96]李欢,毛保华,何宇强,丁勇,林琳.石太客运通道内影响旅客选择交通工具的因素分析[J].北京交通大学学报,2008,7(2)：86-88.
[97]左大杰.我国大城市市郊运输系统若干问题的研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2004.
[98]顾朝林.济南城市经济影响区的划分[J].地理科学,1992,(2)：15-16.
[99]周一星.城市地理学[M].北京：商务印书馆,1995.
[100]周焱,徐建刚.基于GIS的交通经济带空间边界界定方法研究-以沪宁杭高速公路经济带为例[J].世界地理研究,2003,12(2)：79-85.
[101]王铮,丁金宏.理论地理学概论[M].北京：科学出版社,2000：170-172.
[102]陈田.中国城市经济影响区域系统的初步分析[J].地理学报,1987,(4)：308-318.
[103]顾朝林.城市经济区理论与应用[M].长春：吉林科学技术出版社,1991：8-10.
[104]王德,赵锦华.城镇体系分析系统的升级开发与研究[J].城市规划,2002,26(8)：60-64.
[105]王德,郭洁.沪宁杭地区城市影响腹地的划分及其动态变化研究[J].城市规划汇刊,2003,148(6)：6-11.
[106]王德,项日丙.中心城市影响腹地的动态变化研究[J].同济大学学报,2006,34(9)：1175-1179.
[107]曹鸿兴.系统周界的一般理论——界壳论[M].北京：科学出版社,1997：36-51
[108]夏飞,陈修谦.高速公路经济带边界模型的构建及实证分析[J].系统工程,2004,22(12)：101-104.
[109]姚永春.高速公路产业带形成机理及其边界划分方法研究[D].长安大学,工学硕士论文,1999： 8-13.
[110]黄承锋.封闭通道出入口聚集作用理论模型及扩展[J].中国公路学报,2004：17(1)：98-102.
[111]梅振宇,陈峻,王炜等.区域运输走廊形成机理及其界定分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2003：1(2)：91-96.
[112]N.D. Lea Transportation Research Corporation, N.D.Lea&Associates,Ltd.Dictionary of pubic transport [M].Washington, D.C.:Dusseldorf:Alba Buchverlag.
[113]William L.Garrison.Basic research on transportation facilities [J].Transportation Research Part A:General,1985,19(5-6):511-518.
[114]张国伍.交通运输系统分析[M].成都：西南交大出版社,1991：104-119.
[115]刘舒燕.交通运输系统工程[M].北京：人民交通出版社,1998：32-33.
[116]成耀荣.综合运输学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2003：3-4,50-51,59-60.
[117]张磊,杨艳.道路货运结构的问题及调整[J]现代企业,2007,11：30-31.
[118]吴丰.消费市场营销[M].成都：成都科技大学出版社,1999.
[119]Fariba Alamdari.Airline in-flight entertainment:the passenger' perspective [J].Journal of Air Transport Management,1999,5:203-209.
[120]王庆云.交通运输发展理论与实践.[M].北京：中国科学技术,2006.
[121]胡思继.交通运输学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2001.
[122]王庆云.综合运输体系的建设与发展[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2002,8：56-60.
[123]吴群琪,马暕.对运输需求理论问题的再认识[J].综合运输,2004,3：8-11.
[124]马运.运输需求的特性及其分析特点[J].北方交通大学学报,1994,18(3)：426-430.
[125]刘宝碇,赵瑞清.随机规划与模糊规划[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1998,95-116.
[126]Charnes A,Cooper WW.Chance-constrained programming[J].Management Science,1959, 6(1):73-79.
[127]Luhandjula MK.Linear programming under randomness and fuzziness[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1983,10:45-55.
[128]Yazenin AV.Fuzzy and stochastic programming[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1987,22:171-180.
[129]Zadeh LA.Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1978,1: 3-28.
[130]Liu B,Iwamura K.Modelling stochastic decision systems using dependent-chance programming[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1997,101(1):193-203.
[131]Liu B,Iwamura K.Chance constrained programming with fuzzy parameters [J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1998,94 (2):227-237.
[132]Faraway J.,Chatfield C.Time series forecasting with neural networks:a comparative study using the air line data[J].Applied Statistics,1998.47 (2),pp.231-250.
[133]晏启鹏,朱云初,陈向辉.运输量预测的递进综合推定法[J].西南交通大学学报,1996：31(5)：501-505.
[134]李娟.相关系数法在通道交通需求预测中的应用[J].中国公路学报,2006,19(5)：98-101.
[135]周伟,李竞.公路运输量预测的广义线性混合回归模型[J].中国公路学报,1995：8(4)：84-89.
[136]王艳荣.预测公路干线交通量的方法——兼论回归法[J].辽宁交通科技,1996：19(1)：16-28.
[137]杨荣英,苗张木,沈成武.BP神经网络主成分分析法在交通需求预测中的应用[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版)2002,26(3)：386-388.
[138]后锐,张毕西.基于MLP神经网络的区域物流需求预测方法及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005.12,：43-47.
[139]崔德光,吴淑宁,徐冰.空中交通流量预测的人工神经网络和回归组合方法[J].清华大学学报,2005：45(1)：96-99.
[140]宋玉恒,乔建刚.基于灰色模型的怀来公路货运量预测的研究[J].物流科技,2009：(10)：40-42.
[141]王云鹏,杨志发,李世武,隗海林,王利芳.基于系统动力学的道路运输量预测模型[J]吉林大学学报(工学版).2005,35(4)：426-430.
[142]石飞,王炜,陆建.居民出行生成预测方法的归纳和创新[J].城市交通,2005：3(1)：43-46.
[143]刘安,宋伟芳,杨佩昆.出行生成预测模型的研究[J].同济大学学报,1998：26(3)：290-293.
[144]王正,刘安,郑萍.广义Logit交通方式划分预测方法[J].同济大学学报,1999：27(3)：314-318.
[145]Gerken J.Generalized logit model [J].Transportation Research Part B,1991:25 (1):75-88.
[146]Rodrigo A.Garrido,Hani S.Mahmassani, Forecasting freight transportation demand with the space-time multinomial probit model, Transportation Research Part B,1999.6,pp.403-418.
[147]潘莉.组合预测模型在城市公共交通需求预测中的应用[D].合肥工业大学：工学硕士论文,2005：28-31.
[148]吴文征.交通运输供给与需求均衡的理论研究与实证研究[D].长安大学,硕士论文,2005：8-13.
[149]赵志刚,顾新一,李陶深.求解双层规划模型的粒子群优化算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007(8)：92-98.
[150]Shi Y,Eberhart R C.A modified particle swarm optimizer[C] IEEE World Congress on Computational Intelligence,1998:69-73.
[151]吕振肃,侯志荣.自适应变异的粒子群优化算法[J].电子学报2004：32(3)：416-420.
[152]铁道部运输局.全国铁路各线区间通过能力[M].铁道部运输局,2001.10.
[153]中华人民共和国铁道部.铁路区间通过能力计算办法[S].北京：中华人民共和国铁道部,1984：2-3.
[154]中华人民共和国交通部.公路工程技术标准[JTG B01-2003].
[155]吴文化,中国交通运输效率评价体系研究分析(J)综合运输,2001.；(2.)：37-39.
[156]张力,李群仁.几种重要运输方式的外部成本计算分析(J),铁道运输与经济,2000,22(1)：36-38.
[157]高田润(日),柳苇.铁路运输与其他运输方式环境负荷的对比分析(J).国外内燃机车2003,(4)：27-31.
[158]胡思继,综合运输工程学(D).北京交通大学,2005.
[159]张铱莹.客运专线对区际运输通道的影响研究[D].成都：西南交通大学硕士学位论文,2004：25-27.
[160]梁倩.运输需求与运输供给能力分析[D].北京：北京交通大学硕士学位论文,2004.
[161]李群仁,曾会欣,张力.京沪走廊各种运输方式的社会成本[J].中国铁路,1996,6：6-9.
[162]徐创军,杨立中,杨红薇,贺玉龙,熊风.运输系统生态可持续性评价指标体系的研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2007,29(5)：4-7.
[163]王建伟.基于交通效率的城市交通规划理论研究[D].清华大学,博士学位论文,2003：67-79.
[164]徐永能.大城市公共客运交通系统结构演化机理与优化方法研究[D].南京：东南大学博士学位论文,2006：118-119.
[165]樊彦龙.关于我国运输通道客运交通结构的研究[D].西安：长安大学,硕士学位论文,2004：32-33.
[166]聂伟.都市圈道路网络优化及其评价理论研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,博士学位论文,2007：43-54.
[167]铁道第三勘察设计院、铁道第四勘察设计院、北京全路通信信号研究设计院、中铁电气化勘测设计研究院、中铁大桥勘测设计院.新建铁路：北京至上海高速铁路可行性研究(修改版)第一篇总说明书[R].天津：铁道第三勘察设计院,2006.10.
[168]铁道第三勘察设计院、铁道第四勘察设计院、北京全路通信信号研究设计院、中铁电气化勘测设计研究院、中铁大桥勘测设计院.新建铁路：北京至上海高速铁路初步设计总说明书[R].天津：铁道第三勘察设计院集团有限公司,2007.1.