基于性能退化数据的可靠性建模与应用研究
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摘要
现有可靠性理论对产品进行可靠性评估,须依据产品的失效数据进行,然而,随着产品的可靠性越来越高,寿命越来越长,在允许的时间内很难获取足够的失效数据。极少失效甚至是零失效下的可靠性评估问题对现有的可靠性理论来说,是一个带有根本性的难题,它一直困扰着许多理论和应用工作者。产品在使用过程中的性能退化数据中包含着大量的寿命信息,上世纪90年代逐渐兴起的性能退化失效分析方法为高可靠性、长寿命产品的可靠性分析提供了新的途径,鉴于此,针对传统可靠性分析方法与实际工程应用不相适用的问题,本文对基于性能退化数据的可靠性分析技术展开研究,包括如下内容:
(1)根据性能退化数据的特点,研究了基于性能退化数据可靠性分析的相关概念和一般步骤,给出了顺序依次测量数据的统计推断方法;
(2)研究基于随机过程的退化失效分析,针对产品退化失效机理是离散损伤累积的情形,提出基于更新过程的退化失效分析方法;针对产品退化失效机理是连续损伤累积的情形,提出了基于Wiener-Einstein过程和Gamma过程的退化失效分析方法;对产品退化失效机理既包括离散损伤过程又包括连续损伤过程时,给出了一种基于扩散过程的退化失效分析方法;利用上述方法和模型,对强激光装置中金属化膜脉冲电容器进行了可靠性分析。
(3)对于突发失效与退化失效的竞争失效问题,在考虑突发失效与产品性能退化过程相关时,提出了一个竞争失效的模型,该模型包括了突发失效与退化失效无关时的情况。根据该模型的特点,给出了基于参数回归分析的统计推断方法,分别提出基于比例危险模型的竞争失效分析方法和基于位置-尺度模型的竞争失效分析方法;
(4)对于随机失效阈值问题,研究并给出了相对失效标准下的退化失效模型和分析方法;对强度退化的动态应力-强度干涉失效进行分析,提出了周期性应力作用下的动态应力-强度干涉失效可靠性模型和复合应力作用下动态应力-强度干涉失效可靠性模型。基于以上模型分别对强激光装置中通光镜片和脉冲氙灯进行了可靠性评估,以说明该方法的工程实用性和有效性。
(5)根据加速退化过程的特点,提出加速退化因子和加速退化方程的概念,加速退化方程反映了产品退化特征量与应力水平的关系,加速退化因子是刻划试验中某一加速应力水平效果的量。在加速退化方程和加速退化因子概念的基础上给出了几种典型退化失效
With the development of science and technology and improvement of material, the reliability of industry products becomes increasingly higher. Some life tests result in few or no failures. In such cases, it is difficult to assess reliability with traditional life tests which only record time-to-failure. For some products, it is possible to obtain degradation measurements over time and these measurements may contain useful information about product reliability. In this paper, statistical models and its inference methods for degradation measurements have been studied systematically. The contributions of this paper are as follows.
The concepts of degradation failure and the framework of reliability analysis from degradation measurements have been discussed. The inference methods for the repeated-measures degradation data are proposed.
The performance degradation is caused by interior damage cumulative processes of products that may be discrete or continuous. When the performance degradation is caused by the discrete cumulative damages, the degradation failure model based on renewal process is proposed and used to analyze the reliability of metallized film pulse capacitors in the laser device. When the degradation process is continuous, two models based on Wiener-Einstein and Gamma processes are presented respectively. Because it is difficult to obtain an analytical expression of the failure model using the latter method, we present a failure model based on Monte-Carlo simulation. When the degradation process is composite one of discrete and continuous damage cumulative processes, a degradation failure analytical model is presented based on diffusion process.
Competing risk involving multiple failures are becoming increasingly common and important in practice. A general model involving both traumatic and soft degradation failures is proposed in which the dependence of traumatic failure intensities on the degradation level is included. The inference methods of unknown parameters of the competing failure model are presented based on proportional hazard model and location-scale model.
The degradation failure standard may be random to some products. There are two kinds of degradation failure with random failure standard, the first kind is the degradation failure with relative failure standard that is determined by the random initialized performance measurements. A degradation failure model is proposed considering the relative failure standard. The second kind of degradation failure of random failure standard is the stress-strength interference failure considering stochastic stress and strength aging degradation. Two SSI reliability analysis methods considering strength aging degradation with cycle stochastic stress and stochastic
(1)根据性能退化数据的特点,研究了基于性能退化数据可靠性分析的相关概念和一般步骤,给出了顺序依次测量数据的统计推断方法;
(2)研究基于随机过程的退化失效分析,针对产品退化失效机理是离散损伤累积的情形,提出基于更新过程的退化失效分析方法;针对产品退化失效机理是连续损伤累积的情形,提出了基于Wiener-Einstein过程和Gamma过程的退化失效分析方法;对产品退化失效机理既包括离散损伤过程又包括连续损伤过程时,给出了一种基于扩散过程的退化失效分析方法;利用上述方法和模型,对强激光装置中金属化膜脉冲电容器进行了可靠性分析。
(3)对于突发失效与退化失效的竞争失效问题,在考虑突发失效与产品性能退化过程相关时,提出了一个竞争失效的模型,该模型包括了突发失效与退化失效无关时的情况。根据该模型的特点,给出了基于参数回归分析的统计推断方法,分别提出基于比例危险模型的竞争失效分析方法和基于位置-尺度模型的竞争失效分析方法;
(4)对于随机失效阈值问题,研究并给出了相对失效标准下的退化失效模型和分析方法;对强度退化的动态应力-强度干涉失效进行分析,提出了周期性应力作用下的动态应力-强度干涉失效可靠性模型和复合应力作用下动态应力-强度干涉失效可靠性模型。基于以上模型分别对强激光装置中通光镜片和脉冲氙灯进行了可靠性评估,以说明该方法的工程实用性和有效性。
(5)根据加速退化过程的特点,提出加速退化因子和加速退化方程的概念,加速退化方程反映了产品退化特征量与应力水平的关系,加速退化因子是刻划试验中某一加速应力水平效果的量。在加速退化方程和加速退化因子概念的基础上给出了几种典型退化失效
With the development of science and technology and improvement of material, the reliability of industry products becomes increasingly higher. Some life tests result in few or no failures. In such cases, it is difficult to assess reliability with traditional life tests which only record time-to-failure. For some products, it is possible to obtain degradation measurements over time and these measurements may contain useful information about product reliability. In this paper, statistical models and its inference methods for degradation measurements have been studied systematically. The contributions of this paper are as follows.
The concepts of degradation failure and the framework of reliability analysis from degradation measurements have been discussed. The inference methods for the repeated-measures degradation data are proposed.
The performance degradation is caused by interior damage cumulative processes of products that may be discrete or continuous. When the performance degradation is caused by the discrete cumulative damages, the degradation failure model based on renewal process is proposed and used to analyze the reliability of metallized film pulse capacitors in the laser device. When the degradation process is continuous, two models based on Wiener-Einstein and Gamma processes are presented respectively. Because it is difficult to obtain an analytical expression of the failure model using the latter method, we present a failure model based on Monte-Carlo simulation. When the degradation process is composite one of discrete and continuous damage cumulative processes, a degradation failure analytical model is presented based on diffusion process.
Competing risk involving multiple failures are becoming increasingly common and important in practice. A general model involving both traumatic and soft degradation failures is proposed in which the dependence of traumatic failure intensities on the degradation level is included. The inference methods of unknown parameters of the competing failure model are presented based on proportional hazard model and location-scale model.
The degradation failure standard may be random to some products. There are two kinds of degradation failure with random failure standard, the first kind is the degradation failure with relative failure standard that is determined by the random initialized performance measurements. A degradation failure model is proposed considering the relative failure standard. The second kind of degradation failure of random failure standard is the stress-strength interference failure considering stochastic stress and strength aging degradation. Two SSI reliability analysis methods considering strength aging degradation with cycle stochastic stress and stochastic
引文
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