基于行为的电动汽车充换电需求与服务容量研究
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摘要
随着经济发展和人们生活水平的不断提高,我国的汽车量正在迅猛增长,对生态环境构成严重威胁。在节能减排政策驱使下,可再生能源发电将得到快速发展。电动汽车是可再生能源的最好互补,发展电动汽车不仅可以满足人们出行的需要,而且可促进节能减排,是我国汽车产业发展的战略方向。
电动汽车大规模接入对电力系统运行既有正面的影响,也有负面的影响。电动汽车负荷规律的不确定性对电力系统的安全与可靠运行带来挑战,大量的电动汽车接入可能会造成某些时段的负荷明显上升,若车辆充电时段集中于负荷晚高峰时段,则对电网的安全可靠运行更加不利,电动汽车无序充电也可能对电力系统造成网损增加、电能质量下降、负荷峰谷差率增大等不利影响；同时,电动汽车特有的主动行为与储能特性为电力系统实现可再生能源消纳、负荷削峰填谷等提供了有利条件。但是,作为研究电动汽车大规模接入对电力系统影响的基础,对电动汽车的电池需求规律、充电负荷规律、主动空间等问题的相关研究依然薄弱；另一方面,电动汽车的大规模普及依赖于完善的服务网络,但目前对集中式服务设施的定址定容方案的服务容量和盈利能力问题的研究较少,造成集中式服务设施布点方案和设备定容配置方案所产生的服务容量不确定,以及收益能力不确定的问题,这类问题又影响着对电动汽车服务设施投资的积极性,可能会延缓服务网络建设,对电动汽车产业的发展造成不利影响。
因此,为解决上述问题,有必要对电动汽车的电池需求规律、充电负荷规律、主动空间等进行研究,为进一步研究大规模电动汽车接入对电力系统的影响问题打下基础；同时也有必要对电动汽车充换电站布点以及集中式服务站建设中的服务容量、盈利能力问题进行研究,以实现在实际投资建设前对于布点方案、站内定容配置方案的服务容量预估、收益能力预估,为布点方案优化、站内资源配置优化等问题的研究打下基础。
本文的主要工作和创新成果如下：
(1)在计及车辆的行驶规律的前提下,结合电动汽车充电模式、换电模式这两种电能补充方式的特点,采用蒙特卡洛方法实现了对车辆行驶、电池电量变化、需求产生、电能补充等行为的时序模拟,在多情景集下对一定规模电动汽车在换电模式下的电池需求规律和最小储备电池数量,在充电模式下的电量需求规律和即插即充的充电负荷规律,以及充电、换电两种模式下的主动空间进行研究。在每次模拟中对车辆一日中的出行时刻、出行距离、各时段的行驶速度等随机变量进行抽取,可明确电动汽车一日中具体的行驶、静止时段,从而对电动汽车的电量消耗过程进行描述,依据电动汽车换电模式、充电模式的不同特点,结合车辆的剩余电量、停放时段等因素,分析车辆产生用电需求的具体时刻。在模拟中结合电动汽车用电需求规律,并考虑了换电模式下的储备电池循环、最小电池储备需求,以及充电模式下的电动汽车可入网时段,对电动汽车的两种电能补充方式分别研究。该研究是进行电动汽车有序充电控制、电动汽车充电设施定容规划、电动汽车与电网互动技术(V2G)、可再生能源消纳、电动汽车负荷对电网负荷、电能质量、电网经济运行影响等研究的基础。
(2)提出了一种城市区域内换电站布点方案的路上成本计算方法。在考虑区域内车辆密度差异及路网建设差异的前提下,建立了将有向图转换为带权二又树进行遍历,以确定最优路径和最优选站的电动汽车行为模型,通过对车辆行为的时序模拟实现了换电站布点方案的换电路上成本计算,并研究了换电路上成本对换电站布点方案的服务容量以及各换电站平均负荷的影响。通过对待分析区域进行划分,将路网信息简化为网格信息,对区域内的车辆位置、目的地位置、换电站位置三者的空间关系进行描述,实现了区域内的换电站布点方案路上成本计算,并以此为基础对城市区域内某布点方案的服务容量进行研究。该研究是优化换电站布点、换电站定容、换电站布点方案收益预估等研究的基础,同时,本方法也可为集中式充电站的相关研究提供有益的参考。
(3)建立了换电站运营模型。建立了以最大化服务容量为目标,通过计及行驶规律的车辆行为时序模拟产生的换电需求作为排队的输入来源,多类设备形成服务机构的排队系统,并在模型中考虑了车辆等待超时退出、设备分类与服务时间、分时电价下的计划充电、电池循环、最小设备投入的换电站运营模型,研究了不同投资方案在一定车辆行为规律情况下的服务容量、设备闲置率、盈利能力、投资效率问题。在所建立的换电站运营模型中,换电站以最大化可服务车辆数作为自己的运营目标,并同时考虑到站内设备的循环使用。运营模型为电动汽车的服务设备进行了多种分类,电动汽车对每一类设备的使用时间长度均服从不同的分布,车辆具有换电需求时,仅当其获得了所有需要的设备后才会开始进行服务。运营模型在分时电价的情景下,在不提高最小储备电池需求数量的前提下,将部分电池安排至低谷电价时进行充电,以此降低换电站的运营成本。该研究为换电站优化设备配置、提高收益能力和投资效率等问题研究打下了基础,也可为充电模式下电动汽车集中式充电站、分布式充电桩建设的相关研究提供借鉴。
As the economy develops and people's living standards improve, the amount of the cars in China has maintained a rapid growth, which is threatening the ecological environment. Driven by the energy conservation policy, renewable energy generation will get a rapid development. Thus the electric car is the best complement to renewable energy. Growing of the electric car can not only meet the needs of people's travel, but promote energy conservation and emissions reduction, which can be the strategic direction of the development of auto industry in our country. For the power system operation,large-scale electric vehicle access has both positive and negative impact. Access to a large number of electric vehicles may cause the load increased significantly in certain periods. If the vehicle charging time focuses on the evening peak load periods, it would be more negative in reliable operation of the grid. Electric vehicle charging disorder may also cause raising power system losses, declining of power quality, peak load increasing and other adverse effects. The uncertainty of the electric vehicle pattern brings challenges to the safe and reliable operation of power system. Meanwhile, the particular active behavior and energy storage of electric vehicles offer power system favorable condition in achieving renewable energy consumptive and load shifting. However, there are few studies on these three fields:the electric car battery demand law, charging load regularity and active space, which play basic roles in the electric car large-scale access on the effect of power system. On the other hand, the massive popularity of electric vehicles relies on a sound power supply network, but before the widespread of electric vehicles, there exists some uncertainty on the service capacity of centralized stationing site after filling in power station in investmentservices and on the profitability after various types of investment services equipment. Such problems also affect the investment enthusiasm of electric vehicle service facilities and slow down the service network construction, which adversely bring negative impact on the development of electric vehicle industry. Thus, to solve the problems above, it is necessary to do research on the electric vehicles battery demand law, charging load regularity and active space to lay the foundation for further study on the impact of large-scale electric vehicle access on the power system; It is also essential to study the issues like distribution of the electric car service station, the services of centralized service station construction and its profitability to achieve the estimates in distribution program and the service capacity of station equipment configuration before the actual investment in the con-struction in order to do the spade work for distribution optimization and to optimize the allocation of resources within the station.
The main works and innovative achievements of the thesis are as follows:
(1) In considering the regularity of the vehicle traveling, it combines with charging and battering swapping, two character of electricity supplementary way, using the Monte-Carlo method for the vehicle, battery change, demand generation, energy supplementation to carry on the timing simulation, studying on the certain scale electric vehicle's battery demand pattern and the number of minimum reserve battery based on the battering swapping mode under the multi-scenarios, the require-ment of electricity based on the charging mode and the active space under both charging and battering swapping. In each simulation on the day of vehicle travel time, trip distance, extraction from each time driving speed and other random variables, electric vehicles can be clearly record its specific day traveling, stationary periods, and thus describing its power consumption process. Based on power mode of electric car, the various characteristics charging mode, combined with the vehicle's remaining charge, parking time and other factors, the electricity demand of the vehicles can be analyze. In the simulation, combined with demand for electric vehicles law and considered the reserve battery power mode conversion cycle, minimum battery reserve requirements, and the time electric vehicle charging mode, electric vehicles were studied in two ways energy supplement. The study lays the foundation of the electric vehicle coordinated charging, sizing planning of the electric vehicle charging facilities, the electric vehicle and the V2G, utilization of renewable energy and electric vehicle load impacting on the grid load, power quality and grid economy.
(2) The thesis proposes a road costing method for distribution solutions for power plants within an urban area. Taking the vehicle density differences within the region and the differences in the construction of road network into account, it has set up a behavioral model aiming to determine the best path and the best optional of electric vehicle by transferring from directed graph to the binary weighted tree for traversal. By timing simulation of vehicle behavior to achieve a costing on distribution solutions for power plants switching circuit, it also studies on the cost of battery swapping station distribution program for power plants'service capacity and the impact of the average load of each battery swapping station. Analysis through zoning, road network information simplified road network information as grid information, we describe the spatial relationships of vehicle location within the region, the destination location and position of power plants which achieve a distribution program for power plants in the region on the road costs computing, and as a basis for research on service capacity within the urban area of a distribution program. This research can be the basis of optimization for power distribution network, the sizing of battery swapping station and the earnings estimates of the battery swapping station distribution program. Meanwhile, The method also can provide useful references for the related research of centralized charging station.
(3) It has established a model, power plants operate analysis. Targeting on maximize service capacity, adding the demand for electricity as queued input source from timing simulation by thinking the behavior of traveling regularly over, considering the vehicle waiting-timeout-exit into in the model, classified, hours, charging scheme under Trace Operate Unit, cell cycle and the minimum investment in equipment for power plants operating model, it researches on the investment programs in different vehicle behavior under certain regularity conditions for electric service capability, equipment idle rate, profitability and investment efficiency. In the established model of power plants operating, maximize the number of vehicles can serve as operational objectives of power plants taking into account the equipment recycling in station at the same time. Operational model for the electric vehicle service equipment makes a variety of categories. The use of electric cars on the length of time for each type of equipment is subject to different distributions. When demanding electricity, the vehicles would begin to service only after getting all the necessary equipment. Operating model under TOU background, without increasing the number of batteries minimum reserve requirements premise, the part of the battery charging can be arranged in low price period to reduce the operational costs for power plants. The study will lay a foundation on optimized device configuration for battery swapping stations, improving profitability and investment efficiency. It also may cast a light in the research of centralized charging station and distributed charging pile construction under the charging mode.
电动汽车大规模接入对电力系统运行既有正面的影响,也有负面的影响。电动汽车负荷规律的不确定性对电力系统的安全与可靠运行带来挑战,大量的电动汽车接入可能会造成某些时段的负荷明显上升,若车辆充电时段集中于负荷晚高峰时段,则对电网的安全可靠运行更加不利,电动汽车无序充电也可能对电力系统造成网损增加、电能质量下降、负荷峰谷差率增大等不利影响；同时,电动汽车特有的主动行为与储能特性为电力系统实现可再生能源消纳、负荷削峰填谷等提供了有利条件。但是,作为研究电动汽车大规模接入对电力系统影响的基础,对电动汽车的电池需求规律、充电负荷规律、主动空间等问题的相关研究依然薄弱；另一方面,电动汽车的大规模普及依赖于完善的服务网络,但目前对集中式服务设施的定址定容方案的服务容量和盈利能力问题的研究较少,造成集中式服务设施布点方案和设备定容配置方案所产生的服务容量不确定,以及收益能力不确定的问题,这类问题又影响着对电动汽车服务设施投资的积极性,可能会延缓服务网络建设,对电动汽车产业的发展造成不利影响。
因此,为解决上述问题,有必要对电动汽车的电池需求规律、充电负荷规律、主动空间等进行研究,为进一步研究大规模电动汽车接入对电力系统的影响问题打下基础；同时也有必要对电动汽车充换电站布点以及集中式服务站建设中的服务容量、盈利能力问题进行研究,以实现在实际投资建设前对于布点方案、站内定容配置方案的服务容量预估、收益能力预估,为布点方案优化、站内资源配置优化等问题的研究打下基础。
本文的主要工作和创新成果如下：
(1)在计及车辆的行驶规律的前提下,结合电动汽车充电模式、换电模式这两种电能补充方式的特点,采用蒙特卡洛方法实现了对车辆行驶、电池电量变化、需求产生、电能补充等行为的时序模拟,在多情景集下对一定规模电动汽车在换电模式下的电池需求规律和最小储备电池数量,在充电模式下的电量需求规律和即插即充的充电负荷规律,以及充电、换电两种模式下的主动空间进行研究。在每次模拟中对车辆一日中的出行时刻、出行距离、各时段的行驶速度等随机变量进行抽取,可明确电动汽车一日中具体的行驶、静止时段,从而对电动汽车的电量消耗过程进行描述,依据电动汽车换电模式、充电模式的不同特点,结合车辆的剩余电量、停放时段等因素,分析车辆产生用电需求的具体时刻。在模拟中结合电动汽车用电需求规律,并考虑了换电模式下的储备电池循环、最小电池储备需求,以及充电模式下的电动汽车可入网时段,对电动汽车的两种电能补充方式分别研究。该研究是进行电动汽车有序充电控制、电动汽车充电设施定容规划、电动汽车与电网互动技术(V2G)、可再生能源消纳、电动汽车负荷对电网负荷、电能质量、电网经济运行影响等研究的基础。
(2)提出了一种城市区域内换电站布点方案的路上成本计算方法。在考虑区域内车辆密度差异及路网建设差异的前提下,建立了将有向图转换为带权二又树进行遍历,以确定最优路径和最优选站的电动汽车行为模型,通过对车辆行为的时序模拟实现了换电站布点方案的换电路上成本计算,并研究了换电路上成本对换电站布点方案的服务容量以及各换电站平均负荷的影响。通过对待分析区域进行划分,将路网信息简化为网格信息,对区域内的车辆位置、目的地位置、换电站位置三者的空间关系进行描述,实现了区域内的换电站布点方案路上成本计算,并以此为基础对城市区域内某布点方案的服务容量进行研究。该研究是优化换电站布点、换电站定容、换电站布点方案收益预估等研究的基础,同时,本方法也可为集中式充电站的相关研究提供有益的参考。
(3)建立了换电站运营模型。建立了以最大化服务容量为目标,通过计及行驶规律的车辆行为时序模拟产生的换电需求作为排队的输入来源,多类设备形成服务机构的排队系统,并在模型中考虑了车辆等待超时退出、设备分类与服务时间、分时电价下的计划充电、电池循环、最小设备投入的换电站运营模型,研究了不同投资方案在一定车辆行为规律情况下的服务容量、设备闲置率、盈利能力、投资效率问题。在所建立的换电站运营模型中,换电站以最大化可服务车辆数作为自己的运营目标,并同时考虑到站内设备的循环使用。运营模型为电动汽车的服务设备进行了多种分类,电动汽车对每一类设备的使用时间长度均服从不同的分布,车辆具有换电需求时,仅当其获得了所有需要的设备后才会开始进行服务。运营模型在分时电价的情景下,在不提高最小储备电池需求数量的前提下,将部分电池安排至低谷电价时进行充电,以此降低换电站的运营成本。该研究为换电站优化设备配置、提高收益能力和投资效率等问题研究打下了基础,也可为充电模式下电动汽车集中式充电站、分布式充电桩建设的相关研究提供借鉴。
As the economy develops and people's living standards improve, the amount of the cars in China has maintained a rapid growth, which is threatening the ecological environment. Driven by the energy conservation policy, renewable energy generation will get a rapid development. Thus the electric car is the best complement to renewable energy. Growing of the electric car can not only meet the needs of people's travel, but promote energy conservation and emissions reduction, which can be the strategic direction of the development of auto industry in our country. For the power system operation,large-scale electric vehicle access has both positive and negative impact. Access to a large number of electric vehicles may cause the load increased significantly in certain periods. If the vehicle charging time focuses on the evening peak load periods, it would be more negative in reliable operation of the grid. Electric vehicle charging disorder may also cause raising power system losses, declining of power quality, peak load increasing and other adverse effects. The uncertainty of the electric vehicle pattern brings challenges to the safe and reliable operation of power system. Meanwhile, the particular active behavior and energy storage of electric vehicles offer power system favorable condition in achieving renewable energy consumptive and load shifting. However, there are few studies on these three fields:the electric car battery demand law, charging load regularity and active space, which play basic roles in the electric car large-scale access on the effect of power system. On the other hand, the massive popularity of electric vehicles relies on a sound power supply network, but before the widespread of electric vehicles, there exists some uncertainty on the service capacity of centralized stationing site after filling in power station in investmentservices and on the profitability after various types of investment services equipment. Such problems also affect the investment enthusiasm of electric vehicle service facilities and slow down the service network construction, which adversely bring negative impact on the development of electric vehicle industry. Thus, to solve the problems above, it is necessary to do research on the electric vehicles battery demand law, charging load regularity and active space to lay the foundation for further study on the impact of large-scale electric vehicle access on the power system; It is also essential to study the issues like distribution of the electric car service station, the services of centralized service station construction and its profitability to achieve the estimates in distribution program and the service capacity of station equipment configuration before the actual investment in the con-struction in order to do the spade work for distribution optimization and to optimize the allocation of resources within the station.
The main works and innovative achievements of the thesis are as follows:
(1) In considering the regularity of the vehicle traveling, it combines with charging and battering swapping, two character of electricity supplementary way, using the Monte-Carlo method for the vehicle, battery change, demand generation, energy supplementation to carry on the timing simulation, studying on the certain scale electric vehicle's battery demand pattern and the number of minimum reserve battery based on the battering swapping mode under the multi-scenarios, the require-ment of electricity based on the charging mode and the active space under both charging and battering swapping. In each simulation on the day of vehicle travel time, trip distance, extraction from each time driving speed and other random variables, electric vehicles can be clearly record its specific day traveling, stationary periods, and thus describing its power consumption process. Based on power mode of electric car, the various characteristics charging mode, combined with the vehicle's remaining charge, parking time and other factors, the electricity demand of the vehicles can be analyze. In the simulation, combined with demand for electric vehicles law and considered the reserve battery power mode conversion cycle, minimum battery reserve requirements, and the time electric vehicle charging mode, electric vehicles were studied in two ways energy supplement. The study lays the foundation of the electric vehicle coordinated charging, sizing planning of the electric vehicle charging facilities, the electric vehicle and the V2G, utilization of renewable energy and electric vehicle load impacting on the grid load, power quality and grid economy.
(2) The thesis proposes a road costing method for distribution solutions for power plants within an urban area. Taking the vehicle density differences within the region and the differences in the construction of road network into account, it has set up a behavioral model aiming to determine the best path and the best optional of electric vehicle by transferring from directed graph to the binary weighted tree for traversal. By timing simulation of vehicle behavior to achieve a costing on distribution solutions for power plants switching circuit, it also studies on the cost of battery swapping station distribution program for power plants'service capacity and the impact of the average load of each battery swapping station. Analysis through zoning, road network information simplified road network information as grid information, we describe the spatial relationships of vehicle location within the region, the destination location and position of power plants which achieve a distribution program for power plants in the region on the road costs computing, and as a basis for research on service capacity within the urban area of a distribution program. This research can be the basis of optimization for power distribution network, the sizing of battery swapping station and the earnings estimates of the battery swapping station distribution program. Meanwhile, The method also can provide useful references for the related research of centralized charging station.
(3) It has established a model, power plants operate analysis. Targeting on maximize service capacity, adding the demand for electricity as queued input source from timing simulation by thinking the behavior of traveling regularly over, considering the vehicle waiting-timeout-exit into in the model, classified, hours, charging scheme under Trace Operate Unit, cell cycle and the minimum investment in equipment for power plants operating model, it researches on the investment programs in different vehicle behavior under certain regularity conditions for electric service capability, equipment idle rate, profitability and investment efficiency. In the established model of power plants operating, maximize the number of vehicles can serve as operational objectives of power plants taking into account the equipment recycling in station at the same time. Operational model for the electric vehicle service equipment makes a variety of categories. The use of electric cars on the length of time for each type of equipment is subject to different distributions. When demanding electricity, the vehicles would begin to service only after getting all the necessary equipment. Operating model under TOU background, without increasing the number of batteries minimum reserve requirements premise, the part of the battery charging can be arranged in low price period to reduce the operational costs for power plants. The study will lay a foundation on optimized device configuration for battery swapping stations, improving profitability and investment efficiency. It also may cast a light in the research of centralized charging station and distributed charging pile construction under the charging mode.
引文
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