国际金融资本流动机制研究
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摘要
国际金融资本流动是全球一体化条件下重要的经济现象。随着资本流动证券化趋势加强和衍生产品市场迅速发展,国际金融资本在全球资本流动格局中的地位和作用显著上升,它们在为各国经济发展提供资金支持、促进全球资本均衡配置的同时,也导致流动性过剩在世界范围内蔓延和传递,是发展中国家流动性过剩的重要外部根源。伴随着我国经济连续保持高速增长,国际金融资本通过各种正常和隐性渠道流入我国,对经济金融的正常发展形成了一定冲击。因此,研究国际金融资本流动问题对我国经济发展具有非常重要的理论和现实意义。
本文基本上由三部分内容组成:第一部分是全文重要的理论基础,深入研究了金融资本的概念、分类并对其进行了详细的历史考察;第二部分是全文的核心理论框架,重点分析了影响金融资本流动的主要因素及作用机制;第三部分是全文研究的最终归宿,剖析了我国当前流动性过剩的国际背景,估算了我国跨境金融资本流动规模,分析了金融资本流入我国的主要决定因素,并提出了政策建议。
第一部分通过对金融资本历史演变的考察,全面展示了金融资本在不同时期的具体内涵,并结合当前国际金融市场的发展形势,赋予金融资本新的内涵,即金融资本是资本历史形态演进的最高阶段,是专门投资于各类金融资产并追求无限增值的货币资本。主要工业化国家利用本国货币通过国际融合或其它手段发展为支配整个世界经济的全球货币资本,形成了国际金融资本。国际金融资本既具有货币资本的一般特性,同时也具有自身独特的运动规律,根据国际金融资本流动目的其可分为交易性金融资本和投资性金融资本。国际金融资本流动的演化与国际货币制度的变迁紧密相连,随着世界本位货币由英镑向美元继而向多元化的国际货币演变的推进,国际金融资本流动规模不断增大,充当世界本位货币的国家在国际金融资本流动中始终占据重要地位。
第二部分在经典理论的基础上,重点研究了推动和拉动国际金融资本流动的因素及国际金融资本流入一国的经济效应。通过研究,我们发现:第一、推动因素是指决定国际金融资本流入一国的外部动因,主要包括世界利率、世界产出和传染效应。其中,世界利率通过扩张或收缩全球信用供给,影响国际金融资本的流动;世界产出对金融资本流动的影响表现为收入效应和替代效应,替代效用使得流向国际金融市场的资本数量下降,而收入效应会导致流向国际金融市场的资本数量增多,二者共同决定了金融资本的流动方向;传染效应通过信号机制和流动性机制传递到其它市场,直接或间接地影响均衡价格的形成。第二、拉动因素是指决定国际金融资本流入一国的内部动因,主要包括基本经济因素、收益因素和交易成本。其中,基本经济因素是由多个宏观经济变量构成的一个指标体系,反映了一国整体投资环境的安生性、收益性和流动性,具体包括国内产出增长、通货膨胀率、经常账户和外汇储备、金融深化、私有化和国家信用水平等。而收益因素则主要指国内利率和汇率两种重要的资产价格。此外,交易成本是对利润的一种抵减,国内外从事金融资产交易的成本不同对金融资本的利润影响也不同,从而会对资本流动产生相应的影响。第三、国际金融资本流入对经济体系具有显著的经济效应。首先,资本流入通过对本国货币供给、投资的扩张作用促进经济增长,引起实际有效汇率升值、国际储备稳定增长和整体物价上涨。其次,金融资本流入对商业银行信贷扩张、商业银行效率和稳定及业务的国际化具有积极作用;通过直接途径和间接途径促进证券市场规模增长、影响证券市场价格波动性和投资理念形成;直接增加了企业融资渠道、降低资金成本外,还有利于企业证券发行“择时”,影响企业的进出口总规模和贸易结构。再次,国际金融资本流入在对经济体系产生积极影响的同时,也导致经济体系中的矛盾不断积累,引起内部和外部经济失衡,最终可能酿成金融危机。
在理解国际金融资本流动理论的基础上,第三部分深入探讨了我国当前流动性过剩的国际背景,并运用计量分析工具考察了决定国际金融资本流入我国的主要因素,提出了相关政策建议。主要研究结论包括:(1)当前我国流动性过剩是一种包含宏观、微观、制度等多个层次内容的综合现象。在现行非均衡国际货币体系下,国际金融资本流动导致全球流性过剩在世界范围内蔓延,是我国流动性过剩的重要外部根源。(2)我国金融资本流动不仅反映在国际收支平衡表中的证券投资、其他投资和“错误与遗漏”项目,而且还包括通过其它许多隐性渠道流动的资本,运用直接法对我国跨境金融资本流动规模估算的结果表明,我国存在着明显的金融资本双向流动特征,且隐性资本流动所占比例非常高。实证分析显示,我国资本外流短期内会导致金融资本流入规模下降,从长期来看资本外流导致流入我国的金融资本规模增加。(3)拉动因素和推动因素对国际金融资本流入我国都具有影响作用,但利率、汇率等“价格”因素所起的作用并不显著。因此,在制定政策措施时,我国应该逐渐从以“汇率稳定”为外部平衡的核心转向以实现内部经济平衡为货币政策目标,将汇率从宏观调控目标变成政策调控工具,增强国内利率工具的独立性和灵活性,使货币政策更加重视国内经济的平衡。为了减少隐性资本的流入规模,降低隐性资本流动的不确定性,应逐步开放资本账户。最后,由于美国和日本经济发展对我国甚至是世界资本流动格局影响的差异,我国应重视美国和日本对资本供应的非对称性。
Under the circumstances of globalization and integration, international financial capital movement is important economic phenomenon. With the securitization intensified of capital movements and fast development in derivatives markets, international financial capital is playing a more vital role in international capital markets. While they provide capital for each country and promote optimization of capital, they also spread excess liquidity all over the world that is the right external causes for excess liquidity in less developed countries. As China's economy is growing very fast, financial capital keeps flowing in on a large scale through normal and hidden channels, thus causing shock to our economic and financial system. Therefore, it is of great importance in theory and reality to study the related problems of international financial capital movement.
This research is composed of three parts. As the theory basis, the first part studies the concept, classification and evolution of financial capital. For the second part, the key theoretic framework, it analyses the main affecting factors and the corresponding mechanisms deeply. In the last part, the research target is achieved. We study the international background of our current excess liquidity, estimate the scale of international financial capital flow in and out of China. We also demonstrate the determinants of financial capital flow into China. Finally, some measures and policies are suggested.
In light of latest developments of international financial markets, financial capital is endowed with new implications after we display the concrete meanings of financial capital in different times through reviewing the historic evolution of financial capital. As the stratosphere of capital, financial capital invests exclusively in different financial assets aimed at maximizing profits. Industrialized countries are utilizing home currencies to dominate the whole world and lead to form international financial capital. International financial capital has its own unique characteristics as well as common features of monetary capital. According to the targets of movements, international financial capital includes speculative capital and investment capital. International financial capital movement evolves with international monetary system. With the world currency changing from Pound to US dollar and multi-international currencies, the scale of financial capital is becoming larger and larger. At any time, the countries which home currencies are internationalized play the key role.
On the basis of classical theories, pull and push factors as well as economic effects are investigated in the second part. Through solid study, we find some results. Firstly, push factors include some external forces that push financial capital into a country such as world interest rate, world output and contagion. Through expanding and contracting the global credit supply, world interest rate affects international financial capital movement. World output exerts influence on financial capital through income effect and substitution effect which. Income effect can increase the capital flowing to financial markets while substitution effect tends to decrease the capital flowing to financial markets. Contagion affects the equilibrium price directly or indirectly through signal and liquidity. Secondly, pull factors refer to the internal motivations including basic economic variables, price indexes and transaction cost. Basic economic variables are composed of some macro-economic variables which can reflect the risk, profitability and liquidity of one country on the whole. They consist of domestic output, inflation, current items, foreign reserve, financial deepening, privatization and state credit ratings etc. Price indexes include domestic interest rate and exchange rate. In addition, as a deduction to profits, transaction cost can affect financial capital movements. Thirdly, international financial capital plays a significant role in economy. (A)Capital inflow will lead to economic growth, real effective exchange rate appreciation, international reserve increasing steadily and inflation through expanding money supply and investment. (B)Financial capital inflow also plays a significant role in micro-economy. Fourth, international financial capital inflow will also lead to disequilibrium to internal and external economy which may cause financial crisis in the end.
After understanding the theories about international financial capital movements, we investigate the international background of current excess liquidity in China deeply, then we also examine the main affecting factors through econometric tools and put forward some policies. The main results is as follows: (l)China's current excess liquidity is a kind of comprehensive economic phenomenon that can be explained from different angles such as macro-economy, micro-economy and system. Under the current international monetary system, it is the movement of international financial capital that causes the excess liquidity spreading throughout the whole world. Large-scale financial capital inflow is thought to be the external root for excess liquidity in most less developed countries. (2)The inflow and outflow of financial capital in China can either be seen from BOP items such as portfolio investment, other investment and errors and omissions, or the hidden capital. The estimation about financial capital into or out of China shows that it is characterized with bi-direction, and hidden capital account for a larger share in total capital. We find that outflow of capital will decrease the capital inflow in short time, but increase inflow of capital in the long run. (3)Both push and pull factors affect international financial capital movement in China rather than interest rate and exchange rate. Therefore, we should emphasize more on domestic balance than external balance. The target of exchange rate stability should be transformed to macro-control policy to make the monetary policies more flexible and independent. To decrease the scale of inflow and lower the uncertainty of capital movement, capital account should be liberalized gradually in order. Finally, Chinese government ought to understand that US and Japanese economy development affect international capital in other countries differently so that corresponding measures can be adopted to improve the financial flow.
本文基本上由三部分内容组成:第一部分是全文重要的理论基础,深入研究了金融资本的概念、分类并对其进行了详细的历史考察;第二部分是全文的核心理论框架,重点分析了影响金融资本流动的主要因素及作用机制;第三部分是全文研究的最终归宿,剖析了我国当前流动性过剩的国际背景,估算了我国跨境金融资本流动规模,分析了金融资本流入我国的主要决定因素,并提出了政策建议。
第一部分通过对金融资本历史演变的考察,全面展示了金融资本在不同时期的具体内涵,并结合当前国际金融市场的发展形势,赋予金融资本新的内涵,即金融资本是资本历史形态演进的最高阶段,是专门投资于各类金融资产并追求无限增值的货币资本。主要工业化国家利用本国货币通过国际融合或其它手段发展为支配整个世界经济的全球货币资本,形成了国际金融资本。国际金融资本既具有货币资本的一般特性,同时也具有自身独特的运动规律,根据国际金融资本流动目的其可分为交易性金融资本和投资性金融资本。国际金融资本流动的演化与国际货币制度的变迁紧密相连,随着世界本位货币由英镑向美元继而向多元化的国际货币演变的推进,国际金融资本流动规模不断增大,充当世界本位货币的国家在国际金融资本流动中始终占据重要地位。
第二部分在经典理论的基础上,重点研究了推动和拉动国际金融资本流动的因素及国际金融资本流入一国的经济效应。通过研究,我们发现:第一、推动因素是指决定国际金融资本流入一国的外部动因,主要包括世界利率、世界产出和传染效应。其中,世界利率通过扩张或收缩全球信用供给,影响国际金融资本的流动;世界产出对金融资本流动的影响表现为收入效应和替代效应,替代效用使得流向国际金融市场的资本数量下降,而收入效应会导致流向国际金融市场的资本数量增多,二者共同决定了金融资本的流动方向;传染效应通过信号机制和流动性机制传递到其它市场,直接或间接地影响均衡价格的形成。第二、拉动因素是指决定国际金融资本流入一国的内部动因,主要包括基本经济因素、收益因素和交易成本。其中,基本经济因素是由多个宏观经济变量构成的一个指标体系,反映了一国整体投资环境的安生性、收益性和流动性,具体包括国内产出增长、通货膨胀率、经常账户和外汇储备、金融深化、私有化和国家信用水平等。而收益因素则主要指国内利率和汇率两种重要的资产价格。此外,交易成本是对利润的一种抵减,国内外从事金融资产交易的成本不同对金融资本的利润影响也不同,从而会对资本流动产生相应的影响。第三、国际金融资本流入对经济体系具有显著的经济效应。首先,资本流入通过对本国货币供给、投资的扩张作用促进经济增长,引起实际有效汇率升值、国际储备稳定增长和整体物价上涨。其次,金融资本流入对商业银行信贷扩张、商业银行效率和稳定及业务的国际化具有积极作用;通过直接途径和间接途径促进证券市场规模增长、影响证券市场价格波动性和投资理念形成;直接增加了企业融资渠道、降低资金成本外,还有利于企业证券发行“择时”,影响企业的进出口总规模和贸易结构。再次,国际金融资本流入在对经济体系产生积极影响的同时,也导致经济体系中的矛盾不断积累,引起内部和外部经济失衡,最终可能酿成金融危机。
在理解国际金融资本流动理论的基础上,第三部分深入探讨了我国当前流动性过剩的国际背景,并运用计量分析工具考察了决定国际金融资本流入我国的主要因素,提出了相关政策建议。主要研究结论包括:(1)当前我国流动性过剩是一种包含宏观、微观、制度等多个层次内容的综合现象。在现行非均衡国际货币体系下,国际金融资本流动导致全球流性过剩在世界范围内蔓延,是我国流动性过剩的重要外部根源。(2)我国金融资本流动不仅反映在国际收支平衡表中的证券投资、其他投资和“错误与遗漏”项目,而且还包括通过其它许多隐性渠道流动的资本,运用直接法对我国跨境金融资本流动规模估算的结果表明,我国存在着明显的金融资本双向流动特征,且隐性资本流动所占比例非常高。实证分析显示,我国资本外流短期内会导致金融资本流入规模下降,从长期来看资本外流导致流入我国的金融资本规模增加。(3)拉动因素和推动因素对国际金融资本流入我国都具有影响作用,但利率、汇率等“价格”因素所起的作用并不显著。因此,在制定政策措施时,我国应该逐渐从以“汇率稳定”为外部平衡的核心转向以实现内部经济平衡为货币政策目标,将汇率从宏观调控目标变成政策调控工具,增强国内利率工具的独立性和灵活性,使货币政策更加重视国内经济的平衡。为了减少隐性资本的流入规模,降低隐性资本流动的不确定性,应逐步开放资本账户。最后,由于美国和日本经济发展对我国甚至是世界资本流动格局影响的差异,我国应重视美国和日本对资本供应的非对称性。
Under the circumstances of globalization and integration, international financial capital movement is important economic phenomenon. With the securitization intensified of capital movements and fast development in derivatives markets, international financial capital is playing a more vital role in international capital markets. While they provide capital for each country and promote optimization of capital, they also spread excess liquidity all over the world that is the right external causes for excess liquidity in less developed countries. As China's economy is growing very fast, financial capital keeps flowing in on a large scale through normal and hidden channels, thus causing shock to our economic and financial system. Therefore, it is of great importance in theory and reality to study the related problems of international financial capital movement.
This research is composed of three parts. As the theory basis, the first part studies the concept, classification and evolution of financial capital. For the second part, the key theoretic framework, it analyses the main affecting factors and the corresponding mechanisms deeply. In the last part, the research target is achieved. We study the international background of our current excess liquidity, estimate the scale of international financial capital flow in and out of China. We also demonstrate the determinants of financial capital flow into China. Finally, some measures and policies are suggested.
In light of latest developments of international financial markets, financial capital is endowed with new implications after we display the concrete meanings of financial capital in different times through reviewing the historic evolution of financial capital. As the stratosphere of capital, financial capital invests exclusively in different financial assets aimed at maximizing profits. Industrialized countries are utilizing home currencies to dominate the whole world and lead to form international financial capital. International financial capital has its own unique characteristics as well as common features of monetary capital. According to the targets of movements, international financial capital includes speculative capital and investment capital. International financial capital movement evolves with international monetary system. With the world currency changing from Pound to US dollar and multi-international currencies, the scale of financial capital is becoming larger and larger. At any time, the countries which home currencies are internationalized play the key role.
On the basis of classical theories, pull and push factors as well as economic effects are investigated in the second part. Through solid study, we find some results. Firstly, push factors include some external forces that push financial capital into a country such as world interest rate, world output and contagion. Through expanding and contracting the global credit supply, world interest rate affects international financial capital movement. World output exerts influence on financial capital through income effect and substitution effect which. Income effect can increase the capital flowing to financial markets while substitution effect tends to decrease the capital flowing to financial markets. Contagion affects the equilibrium price directly or indirectly through signal and liquidity. Secondly, pull factors refer to the internal motivations including basic economic variables, price indexes and transaction cost. Basic economic variables are composed of some macro-economic variables which can reflect the risk, profitability and liquidity of one country on the whole. They consist of domestic output, inflation, current items, foreign reserve, financial deepening, privatization and state credit ratings etc. Price indexes include domestic interest rate and exchange rate. In addition, as a deduction to profits, transaction cost can affect financial capital movements. Thirdly, international financial capital plays a significant role in economy. (A)Capital inflow will lead to economic growth, real effective exchange rate appreciation, international reserve increasing steadily and inflation through expanding money supply and investment. (B)Financial capital inflow also plays a significant role in micro-economy. Fourth, international financial capital inflow will also lead to disequilibrium to internal and external economy which may cause financial crisis in the end.
After understanding the theories about international financial capital movements, we investigate the international background of current excess liquidity in China deeply, then we also examine the main affecting factors through econometric tools and put forward some policies. The main results is as follows: (l)China's current excess liquidity is a kind of comprehensive economic phenomenon that can be explained from different angles such as macro-economy, micro-economy and system. Under the current international monetary system, it is the movement of international financial capital that causes the excess liquidity spreading throughout the whole world. Large-scale financial capital inflow is thought to be the external root for excess liquidity in most less developed countries. (2)The inflow and outflow of financial capital in China can either be seen from BOP items such as portfolio investment, other investment and errors and omissions, or the hidden capital. The estimation about financial capital into or out of China shows that it is characterized with bi-direction, and hidden capital account for a larger share in total capital. We find that outflow of capital will decrease the capital inflow in short time, but increase inflow of capital in the long run. (3)Both push and pull factors affect international financial capital movement in China rather than interest rate and exchange rate. Therefore, we should emphasize more on domestic balance than external balance. The target of exchange rate stability should be transformed to macro-control policy to make the monetary policies more flexible and independent. To decrease the scale of inflow and lower the uncertainty of capital movement, capital account should be liberalized gradually in order. Finally, Chinese government ought to understand that US and Japanese economy development affect international capital in other countries differently so that corresponding measures can be adopted to improve the financial flow.
引文
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