辽宁省森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型研究
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摘要
全球气候变化严重影响人类生存环境和经济社会的可持续发展。森林与气候变化关系十分密切,森林生态系统是陆地最大的碳储库,在应对气候变化中具有独特的功能,在维持地球碳平衡中具有重要的作用。
本文通过系统分析国内外学者对森林植被碳储量、系统动态学的研究动态与最新进展,针对辽宁省森林资源结构及其特点,探讨如何估算与测量造林活动(项目)的碳储量,提出碳计量流程和方法；分析3篇应用森林资源调查资料研究我国森林植被碳储量和碳密度的文章,提炼出可供辽宁省森林植被碳储存量仿真模型各林龄组碳密度变量所需要的参考值。应用系统动态学因果关系与循环关系框架流程图方法,研建林地动态流程图,森林资源蓄积量、生长量动态流程图,木材采伐蓄积量动态流程图,森林植被碳储量动态流程图和森林经营、林地、蓄积量、森林植被碳储量等综合动态流程图。采用世界先进的模拟仿真软件——Vensim软件,建立辽宁省森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型。设计3种不同方案情景,应用森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型,分别对辽宁省和14个市的森林植被碳储量的未来变化趋势进行动态分析,模拟测算森林植被碳储量对碳密度的敏感程度。主要研究结果是：
1.更新与提升造林工作理念,把增加森林植被碳储存能力作为造林活动的重要任务之一。造林活动(项目)启动时,应用造林项目碳计量流程和方法,对造林项目碳储存能力进行预测,筛选造林树种,制订造林实施方案,确保造林项目能发挥最大的潜能吸收碳、增加碳储存能力,进而提高森林植被的碳储量。
2.应用系统动态学理论与方法,探析辽宁省森林资源结构,分析森林植被碳储量动态结构,应用系统动态学因果关系与循环关系框架流程图方法,构建森林资源林地动态流程图、森林资源林组资源动态流程图、森林资源木材生产经营动态流程图、森林植被碳储量动态流程图以及森林经营与森林植被碳储量综合动态流程图,建立森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型,
3.应用Vensim软件创建森林资源动态流程图,建立起辽宁省森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型。在论文撰写过程中,设计多种经营方案对辽宁省森林植被碳储量进行模拟,选出3种具有代表性的方案情景,进行分析论证。
(1)现时经营方案。按现在经营措施和管理手段,森林植被碳储量从2005年的1.22亿吨分别增加到2010年的1.28亿吨、2035年的1.5亿吨,提高4.92%、22.95%。
(2)发展方案。加大森林经营力度,增加幼龄林、中龄林人工抚育强度,提高造林成活率,改善森林质量。森林植被碳储量从2005年的1.22亿吨分别提高到2010年的1.37亿吨、2035年的1.59亿吨,增加12.29%、30.33%。
(3)战略方案。森林资源数量稳步增长,进一步调整和改善森林结构,加强森林抚育与管护水平。森林植被碳储量从2005年的1.22亿吨分别提高到2010年的1.44亿吨、2035年的1.71亿吨,增加18.03%、40.16%。
研究认为,辽宁省可以采用“发展方案”制订森林植被碳储量中长期规划,经过努力到2035年能够实现森林植被碳储量达到1.59亿吨的目标。
4.应用仿真模型模拟森林植被碳储量对不同情景碳密度的敏感程度。从森林植被碳储量对碳密度的敏感程度分析中发现,碳储量对碳密度具有较高的敏感性。因此在提高森林植被碳储量水平的工作中,关键是要高度重视如何提高各林分林组的碳密度。也就是说,即使碳密度水平提高较小,碳储量也会有较大的提高。
5.应用辽宁省森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型,模拟出辽宁省14个市2010-2035年的森林植被碳储量,进行对比分析发现：抚顺市、丹东市和本溪市森林植被碳储量约占全省森林植被碳储量的50%,铁岭市和朝阳市约占20%,大连市、鞍山市和葫芦岛市等9个市约占30%。森林植被碳储量若按行政市域划分,分布不均、差距较大。
6.如果用不同区域的森林资源数据资料初始化仿真模型相关变量,那么就可以把已建立的森林资源流程图和森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型应用到不同区域(县、市、省、国家)。模拟出在不同经营方案下的森林植被碳储量动态变化趋势,研究探讨挖掘森林植被碳储存潜力的方法,为科学制订森林植被碳储量的发展战略奠定理论基础。
The global climate change has seriously impacted the living environment and sustainable development of human-being society. Forest plays a very important role on addressing mitigation climate change. Forest ecological system is not only the largest carbon storage pool, but also plays a key function on global carbon circulation and a fundamental base on sustaining carbon balance in the world.
On the base of domestic and overseas scholars' research status and new progresses on carbon storage of forest vegetation and System Dynamics, this study explores how to calculate carbon storage of forestation activities (projects) which directly influence on carbon storage of forest vegetation, that puts forward carbon accounting programs and methods, gives some reference numerical values of forest carbon density in different age groups for Liaoning province after analyzing three papers about research on carbon storage and density of forest vegetation by the use of forest resources inventory data in China. Based on the forest resource structures and characteristics, the flowchart is established by the use of reason-effect relationship and circulation relationship of System Dynamics, which reflects overall dynamic change of carbon storage of forest vegetation. Forest land dynamic flowchart, dynamic flowchart of forest resource volume and growth, dynamic flowchart of logging volume and dynamic flowchart of carbon stocks are set up on the base of forest resource structure. According to comprehensive dynamic flowchart of forest management, forest resource structure and carbon storage of forest vegetation, Dynamic Simulation Model of carbon storage of forest vegetation in Liaoning province is established by adopting modern dynamic simulation software-Vensim in the world. This thesis simulates and analyzes changeable trends of carbon storage of forest vegetation in Liaoning province and its 14 cities in the future by means of Dynamic Simulation Models. The conclusions are as follows:
(1)At the beginning of the forestation, the increment of carbon storage of forest vegetation should be taken as a main target of forestation activities (projects). At the start of forestation activities, forest carbon accounting and surveying methods are used to appraise carbon storage ability of forestation project. In order to ensure absorption carbon potential of forestation project, increase carbon storage ability and improve forest carbon stocks, forestation tree species will be selected and implementation scheme should be set.
(2)Theory and methods of System Dynamics are used to analyze forest resource structure and establish a forest resource dynamic simulation flowchart. The variables and auxiliary variables are used to describe forest structure and management status. The level variable and rate variable are used to reflect forest structure dynamic status. Under the different forestation plans and management measures, the model simulates many variable results of different forest resource structures and forest carbon stocks. These results are useful for policy makers to make high efficient forest resource management schemes.
(3)Forest resource dynamic simulation flowchart is created, forest carbon stock simulation model established and some models listed by the use of Vensim software. Based on the analysis of forest resources and investigation, some management schemes are put forward. Three typical schemes are selected. The simulation results show:
①The carbon storage of vegetation would reach 128 million tons in 2010 and 150 million tons in 2035 from 122 million tons in 2005 under present management scheme, respectively increases 4.92%, 22.95%.
②The carbon storage of vegetation would reach 137 million tons in 2010 and 159 million tons in 2035 from 122 million tons in 2005 under development scheme, respectively increases 12.29%, 30.33%.
③The carbon storage of vegetation would reach 144 million tons in 2010 and 171 million tons in 2035 from 122 million tons in 2005 under strategic scheme, respectively increases 18.03%,40.6%.
Liaoning province could realize 159 million tons of carbon storage of forest vegetation in 2035 if it adopt development scheme to make middle or long time plan by the hard work.
(4)The model is used to simulate how degree carbon storage of forest vegetation is sensitive to carbon density. The results show that the carbon storage of forest vegetation is greatly sensitive to carbon density. In order to increase the carbon storage of forest vegetation in the future, Liaoning province should pay more attention to how improve the carbon density in different age groups. In other words, the carbon storage of forest vegetation greatly increases though the carbon density rises a little.
(5)This model is used to simulate carbon storages of forest vegetation in Liaoning province and its 14 cities in 2010-2035. The simulation results express that the carbon storage of forest vegetation in Fushun, Dandong and Benxi city is approximate 50 percent of that of Liaoning province, the carbon storage of forest vegetation in Tieling, Chaoyang city is about 20 percent of that of Liaoning province, the carbon storage of forest vegetation in Dalian, Anshan, and Hulutao and other 6 cities is approximate 32.14 percent of that of Liaoning province; The allocation of forest carbon stocks is various in the different city. The difference among them is huge.
(6)The dynamic simulation models of carbon storage of forest vegetation would be widely used in different regions (such as county, city, province and country) if the input data in the simulation model be replaced by their data. In order to establish a fundamental base for stimulating efficient management programs on carbon storage of forest vegetation, dynamic changeable situations of carbon storage of forest vegetation are simulated, researched and explored.
本文通过系统分析国内外学者对森林植被碳储量、系统动态学的研究动态与最新进展,针对辽宁省森林资源结构及其特点,探讨如何估算与测量造林活动(项目)的碳储量,提出碳计量流程和方法；分析3篇应用森林资源调查资料研究我国森林植被碳储量和碳密度的文章,提炼出可供辽宁省森林植被碳储存量仿真模型各林龄组碳密度变量所需要的参考值。应用系统动态学因果关系与循环关系框架流程图方法,研建林地动态流程图,森林资源蓄积量、生长量动态流程图,木材采伐蓄积量动态流程图,森林植被碳储量动态流程图和森林经营、林地、蓄积量、森林植被碳储量等综合动态流程图。采用世界先进的模拟仿真软件——Vensim软件,建立辽宁省森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型。设计3种不同方案情景,应用森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型,分别对辽宁省和14个市的森林植被碳储量的未来变化趋势进行动态分析,模拟测算森林植被碳储量对碳密度的敏感程度。主要研究结果是：
1.更新与提升造林工作理念,把增加森林植被碳储存能力作为造林活动的重要任务之一。造林活动(项目)启动时,应用造林项目碳计量流程和方法,对造林项目碳储存能力进行预测,筛选造林树种,制订造林实施方案,确保造林项目能发挥最大的潜能吸收碳、增加碳储存能力,进而提高森林植被的碳储量。
2.应用系统动态学理论与方法,探析辽宁省森林资源结构,分析森林植被碳储量动态结构,应用系统动态学因果关系与循环关系框架流程图方法,构建森林资源林地动态流程图、森林资源林组资源动态流程图、森林资源木材生产经营动态流程图、森林植被碳储量动态流程图以及森林经营与森林植被碳储量综合动态流程图,建立森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型,
3.应用Vensim软件创建森林资源动态流程图,建立起辽宁省森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型。在论文撰写过程中,设计多种经营方案对辽宁省森林植被碳储量进行模拟,选出3种具有代表性的方案情景,进行分析论证。
(1)现时经营方案。按现在经营措施和管理手段,森林植被碳储量从2005年的1.22亿吨分别增加到2010年的1.28亿吨、2035年的1.5亿吨,提高4.92%、22.95%。
(2)发展方案。加大森林经营力度,增加幼龄林、中龄林人工抚育强度,提高造林成活率,改善森林质量。森林植被碳储量从2005年的1.22亿吨分别提高到2010年的1.37亿吨、2035年的1.59亿吨,增加12.29%、30.33%。
(3)战略方案。森林资源数量稳步增长,进一步调整和改善森林结构,加强森林抚育与管护水平。森林植被碳储量从2005年的1.22亿吨分别提高到2010年的1.44亿吨、2035年的1.71亿吨,增加18.03%、40.16%。
研究认为,辽宁省可以采用“发展方案”制订森林植被碳储量中长期规划,经过努力到2035年能够实现森林植被碳储量达到1.59亿吨的目标。
4.应用仿真模型模拟森林植被碳储量对不同情景碳密度的敏感程度。从森林植被碳储量对碳密度的敏感程度分析中发现,碳储量对碳密度具有较高的敏感性。因此在提高森林植被碳储量水平的工作中,关键是要高度重视如何提高各林分林组的碳密度。也就是说,即使碳密度水平提高较小,碳储量也会有较大的提高。
5.应用辽宁省森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型,模拟出辽宁省14个市2010-2035年的森林植被碳储量,进行对比分析发现：抚顺市、丹东市和本溪市森林植被碳储量约占全省森林植被碳储量的50%,铁岭市和朝阳市约占20%,大连市、鞍山市和葫芦岛市等9个市约占30%。森林植被碳储量若按行政市域划分,分布不均、差距较大。
6.如果用不同区域的森林资源数据资料初始化仿真模型相关变量,那么就可以把已建立的森林资源流程图和森林植被碳储量动态仿真模型应用到不同区域(县、市、省、国家)。模拟出在不同经营方案下的森林植被碳储量动态变化趋势,研究探讨挖掘森林植被碳储存潜力的方法,为科学制订森林植被碳储量的发展战略奠定理论基础。
The global climate change has seriously impacted the living environment and sustainable development of human-being society. Forest plays a very important role on addressing mitigation climate change. Forest ecological system is not only the largest carbon storage pool, but also plays a key function on global carbon circulation and a fundamental base on sustaining carbon balance in the world.
On the base of domestic and overseas scholars' research status and new progresses on carbon storage of forest vegetation and System Dynamics, this study explores how to calculate carbon storage of forestation activities (projects) which directly influence on carbon storage of forest vegetation, that puts forward carbon accounting programs and methods, gives some reference numerical values of forest carbon density in different age groups for Liaoning province after analyzing three papers about research on carbon storage and density of forest vegetation by the use of forest resources inventory data in China. Based on the forest resource structures and characteristics, the flowchart is established by the use of reason-effect relationship and circulation relationship of System Dynamics, which reflects overall dynamic change of carbon storage of forest vegetation. Forest land dynamic flowchart, dynamic flowchart of forest resource volume and growth, dynamic flowchart of logging volume and dynamic flowchart of carbon stocks are set up on the base of forest resource structure. According to comprehensive dynamic flowchart of forest management, forest resource structure and carbon storage of forest vegetation, Dynamic Simulation Model of carbon storage of forest vegetation in Liaoning province is established by adopting modern dynamic simulation software-Vensim in the world. This thesis simulates and analyzes changeable trends of carbon storage of forest vegetation in Liaoning province and its 14 cities in the future by means of Dynamic Simulation Models. The conclusions are as follows:
(1)At the beginning of the forestation, the increment of carbon storage of forest vegetation should be taken as a main target of forestation activities (projects). At the start of forestation activities, forest carbon accounting and surveying methods are used to appraise carbon storage ability of forestation project. In order to ensure absorption carbon potential of forestation project, increase carbon storage ability and improve forest carbon stocks, forestation tree species will be selected and implementation scheme should be set.
(2)Theory and methods of System Dynamics are used to analyze forest resource structure and establish a forest resource dynamic simulation flowchart. The variables and auxiliary variables are used to describe forest structure and management status. The level variable and rate variable are used to reflect forest structure dynamic status. Under the different forestation plans and management measures, the model simulates many variable results of different forest resource structures and forest carbon stocks. These results are useful for policy makers to make high efficient forest resource management schemes.
(3)Forest resource dynamic simulation flowchart is created, forest carbon stock simulation model established and some models listed by the use of Vensim software. Based on the analysis of forest resources and investigation, some management schemes are put forward. Three typical schemes are selected. The simulation results show:
①The carbon storage of vegetation would reach 128 million tons in 2010 and 150 million tons in 2035 from 122 million tons in 2005 under present management scheme, respectively increases 4.92%, 22.95%.
②The carbon storage of vegetation would reach 137 million tons in 2010 and 159 million tons in 2035 from 122 million tons in 2005 under development scheme, respectively increases 12.29%, 30.33%.
③The carbon storage of vegetation would reach 144 million tons in 2010 and 171 million tons in 2035 from 122 million tons in 2005 under strategic scheme, respectively increases 18.03%,40.6%.
Liaoning province could realize 159 million tons of carbon storage of forest vegetation in 2035 if it adopt development scheme to make middle or long time plan by the hard work.
(4)The model is used to simulate how degree carbon storage of forest vegetation is sensitive to carbon density. The results show that the carbon storage of forest vegetation is greatly sensitive to carbon density. In order to increase the carbon storage of forest vegetation in the future, Liaoning province should pay more attention to how improve the carbon density in different age groups. In other words, the carbon storage of forest vegetation greatly increases though the carbon density rises a little.
(5)This model is used to simulate carbon storages of forest vegetation in Liaoning province and its 14 cities in 2010-2035. The simulation results express that the carbon storage of forest vegetation in Fushun, Dandong and Benxi city is approximate 50 percent of that of Liaoning province, the carbon storage of forest vegetation in Tieling, Chaoyang city is about 20 percent of that of Liaoning province, the carbon storage of forest vegetation in Dalian, Anshan, and Hulutao and other 6 cities is approximate 32.14 percent of that of Liaoning province; The allocation of forest carbon stocks is various in the different city. The difference among them is huge.
(6)The dynamic simulation models of carbon storage of forest vegetation would be widely used in different regions (such as county, city, province and country) if the input data in the simulation model be replaced by their data. In order to establish a fundamental base for stimulating efficient management programs on carbon storage of forest vegetation, dynamic changeable situations of carbon storage of forest vegetation are simulated, researched and explored.
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