中国“双轨制”利率传导机制及效应研究
|
摘要
利率传导机制是反映货币政策如何调节利率,再通过利率引起其他经济变量,如消费、投资的变化,从而影响整个国民经济的机理与过程。20世纪90年代以来,随着各国金融管制的放松和金融创新的加快,货币供应量指标的界定、统计和监测越发困难,而且货币供应量与国民收入、价格等宏观经济变量之间的关系不断弱化,因此许多西方经济发达国家转向了以利率为主导的货币政策框架,利率渠道成为这些国家货币政策传导的主渠道。从我国来看,随着利率市场化改革的深入,利率传导机制的地位也在逐步提高,在这样的国内外大环境下,对我国利率传导机制理论及效应开展研究,具有十分重要的理论和实际意义。
本文首先对利率传导机制的有关理论和主要发达国家利率传导机制的运用情况进行了介绍,并对建国以来我国的利率政策调控历程进行了回顾。从主要发达国家的利率传导机制看,都是由中央银行通过货币政策操作,引导基准利率发生变化,再由基准利率引导整个利率体系发生变化,进而对投资、消费等行为发生影响,由此实现货币政策的有效传导。从我国的利率调控方式来看,既有中央银行调整金融机构存、贷款利率的直接调控方式,也有中央银行通过货币政策操作影响市场基准利率的间接调控方式,利率传导机制呈现“双轨制”特征。
其次,由于利率传导机制作用的发挥有赖于利率市场化的程度,因此本文对利率市场化的主要理论进行了综述,对我国的利率市场化进程进行了梳理,并对我国现行的利率体系及其特点进行了总结和分析。目前我国的同业拆借市场、银行间债券市场、票据市场等的利率已基本实现了市场化,但金融机构存贷款利率的市场化还在逐步推进,因此目前我国的利率体系呈现出管制利率和市场利率并存的局面,由此增大了我国利率传导机制的复杂性。
第三,由于从主要发达国家利率传导机制的实践看,基准利率在利率传导机制中的作用突出,因此本文对我国基准利率传导效应进行了深入系统研究。研究表明,在完全利率市场化的情况下,基准利率变动可以影响信贷市场利率,由此实现货币政策的有效传导,但在管制利率和市场利率双轨并行的情况下,由于货币政策操作只能对货币需求曲线上有限的区域产生影响,因此利率传导机制在多数情况下是无效的。为了对理论研究的结果进行论证,本文进一步对基准利率的传导效应进行了实证研究。从实证研究结果看,目前我国的公开市场操作对主要市场基准利率具有较显著的引导作用,但基准利率对其他利率的传导效应并不显著,这与理论研究结果是一致的。此外,本文以票据市场为例,对基准利率通过票据市场向实体经济的传导效应进行了实证分析,分析显示,当中央银行以基准利率作为货币政策操作目标时,其货币政策意图可以通过票据市场传导到实体经济中。
第四,针对我国利率市场化改革尚未完成、管制利率和市场利率并存的特殊情况,本文构建了一个VEC系统,将管制利率和市场利率纳入其中,并通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等实证研究方法,分别对管制利率和市场利率作用于投资、消费、总产出和物价等三个方面进行了比较研究。研究表明,管制利率和市场利率的传导效应都不显著,且存在一些和理论相悖的情况,如市场利率上调会推动消费增长加快、管制利率上调会推动物价水平走高等。研究同时表明,管制利率和市场利率的传导效应存在一定差异:从利率调整的作用时效看,在利率调整后较短时间内,管制利率的传导效应大于市场利率,但从较长时间看,市场利率的传导效应大于管制利率;从影响利率调整的因素看,物价水平的变化会导致中央银行对管制利率的调整,因此我国央行对金融机构存贷款利率的调整在某种程度上遵循的是“通胀目标制”,但同时,投资、消费、总产出和物价水平的变化都不会导致我国市场利率发生变化,反映出目前我国央行公开市场操作的主要目标仍是调整市场的流动性而不是市场利率。
第五,在前面研究结论的基础上,本文对影响我国利率传导机制的传导效应的制约因素进行了分析。分析显示,影响我国利率传导机制传导效应的制约因素主要包括:利率管制的影响、微观经济主体利率敏感度低的影响、商业银行逐利经营行为的影响、金融市场发展不完善的影响等几方面。
最后,本文基于前述研究结论,有针对性地提出了相关的政策建议:一是加快推进利率市场化改革;二是不断提高实体经济对利率的敏感性;三是加快发展金融市场;四是提高央行货币政策操作的独立性。
Interest rates transmission mechanism is a process effecting the whole national economy, which reflects the way that monetary policy regulate interest rate, and how other economic variables, such as consuming and investment, had been caused through it. Since the 90s of the 20th century, with the world's financial deregulation relaxed and financial innovation accelerated, it has been more difficult in the money supply indicators' definition, statistics and monitoring, and it has been weakened continuously in the relationship of macroeconomic variables between money supply, national income and prices. Therefore, many western countries turned their monetary policy framework into interest rate-driven, which means that interest rate becomes the main channel of monetary policy transmission in these countries. As far as Chinese conditions, it has great theoretical and practical significance to carry out research of interest rate transmission mechanism in China in such a domestic and international environment of the interest rate market reforming deepened and the status of the interest rate transmission mechanism gradually improved.
In this dissertation, it has firstly introduced the theory of the interest rate transmission mechanism and its usage in the major developed countries. And it has reviewed the history of regulation since the founding of PRC. As we know that the interest rate perspective in major developed countries are carried out monetary policy by the central bank to guide changes in benchmark interest rates which will lead changes in the whole interest rate system. So that it can effect investment, consumption and other behaviours for achieving effective transmission of monetary policy. In China, it has the regulation system as the above as well as direct regulation of adjusting deposit and loan interest rate in the existing financial institutions by China central bank. So the interest rate transmission mechanism is Dual-Track in China.
Secondly, this paper reviewed the main theory of market-based rates, carried out Chinese process, and summary and analysis our country's current system and its characteristics because the development of interest rate transmission mechanism depends on the degree of its marketization. At present, China's interest rate in the call market, the inter-bank bond market, and bill market has been basically realized marketization. However, it still needs gradual promotion at deposit and loan rates in financial institutions. Thus the current interest rates in China shows resisting the coexistence of control and market which has increased complexity in the interest rate transmission mechanism.
Thirdly, this dissertation has studied deeply on transmission effect in China's benchmark interest rate because it has played a prominent role in the transmission mechanism as the practice in major developed countries. And Research suggests that the benchmark interest rate movements can affect the credit market interest rates on the condition of total free interest rate market, thereby achieving effective transmission of monetary policy. While on the parallel case of the control interest rates and market interest rates, the interest rate transmission mechanism in most cases is invalid because monetary policy can only effect a limited region on currency demand curve. In order to demonstrate the results of theoretical research, this paper implement an empirical study on the benchmark interest rate transmission effect. From the empirical results, the current operations in open market in China has a more significant role in guiding major market benchmark interest rate which is not significant on other interest rates transmission effect, which is consistent with theoretical results. In addition, the paper notes the market as an example, empirically analysing the conduction effect of the benchmark interest rate to the real economy through the bill market, which shows that monetary policy intentions of the central bank can be transmitted to the real economy when it targets the benchmark interest rate as a monetary policy operations.
Fourthly, in view of the special case that the interest rate reform has not been completed and it has coexist in control interest rates and market interest rates, this paper has constructed a VEC system containing control interest rates and market interest rates which has comparatively analysed the three areas of investment, consumption, output and prices affected by control interest rates and market interest rates respectively through empirical research methods of co-integration test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition. The results show that control the transmission rate and market interest rate effect is both not significant as well as there is some situations that is contrary to theory, such as increasing market interest rates will push accelerating spending growth and increasing control interest rates will push prices to go higher, etc. The study also shows that there are some differences in the conduction effect in control interest rates and market interest rates, which means that the former rates is greater than the later rates in a relatively short time after the interest rate adjustments from the time of conduction effect, on the other hand, from the factors that influence adjusting interest rates changing price level will lead to adjust control interest rates by central bank, therefore China's central bank has followed the "inflation targeting"to some extent on interest rates of deposit and loans in financial institutions, at the same time, investment, consumption, total output and price level changes have not led to change market interest rates in China, reflecting that the main goal of open market operations by China's central bank remains adjusting the liquidity of the market rather than market interest rates at present.
Fifthly, based on the previous conclusions, it has analysed the constraints of transmission effects that influence interest rate transmission Mechanism, which shows that there are several factors constraining interest rate transmission mechanism which are the impact of interest rate controls, the lower sensitivity of the main micro-economic subjects about interest rate, the impact of pursuing profits on the behaviour of commercial bank, the impact of imperfect aspects in financial market development .
In the end, Based on the foregoing conclusions, it has put forward some policy recommendations: First, to accelerate market-oriented interest rate reform; second, to continuously improve the sensitivity of interest rate in the real economy; Third, to accelerate the development of financial markets; fourth, to improve policy operation independence in central bank's monetary policy.
本文首先对利率传导机制的有关理论和主要发达国家利率传导机制的运用情况进行了介绍,并对建国以来我国的利率政策调控历程进行了回顾。从主要发达国家的利率传导机制看,都是由中央银行通过货币政策操作,引导基准利率发生变化,再由基准利率引导整个利率体系发生变化,进而对投资、消费等行为发生影响,由此实现货币政策的有效传导。从我国的利率调控方式来看,既有中央银行调整金融机构存、贷款利率的直接调控方式,也有中央银行通过货币政策操作影响市场基准利率的间接调控方式,利率传导机制呈现“双轨制”特征。
其次,由于利率传导机制作用的发挥有赖于利率市场化的程度,因此本文对利率市场化的主要理论进行了综述,对我国的利率市场化进程进行了梳理,并对我国现行的利率体系及其特点进行了总结和分析。目前我国的同业拆借市场、银行间债券市场、票据市场等的利率已基本实现了市场化,但金融机构存贷款利率的市场化还在逐步推进,因此目前我国的利率体系呈现出管制利率和市场利率并存的局面,由此增大了我国利率传导机制的复杂性。
第三,由于从主要发达国家利率传导机制的实践看,基准利率在利率传导机制中的作用突出,因此本文对我国基准利率传导效应进行了深入系统研究。研究表明,在完全利率市场化的情况下,基准利率变动可以影响信贷市场利率,由此实现货币政策的有效传导,但在管制利率和市场利率双轨并行的情况下,由于货币政策操作只能对货币需求曲线上有限的区域产生影响,因此利率传导机制在多数情况下是无效的。为了对理论研究的结果进行论证,本文进一步对基准利率的传导效应进行了实证研究。从实证研究结果看,目前我国的公开市场操作对主要市场基准利率具有较显著的引导作用,但基准利率对其他利率的传导效应并不显著,这与理论研究结果是一致的。此外,本文以票据市场为例,对基准利率通过票据市场向实体经济的传导效应进行了实证分析,分析显示,当中央银行以基准利率作为货币政策操作目标时,其货币政策意图可以通过票据市场传导到实体经济中。
第四,针对我国利率市场化改革尚未完成、管制利率和市场利率并存的特殊情况,本文构建了一个VEC系统,将管制利率和市场利率纳入其中,并通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等实证研究方法,分别对管制利率和市场利率作用于投资、消费、总产出和物价等三个方面进行了比较研究。研究表明,管制利率和市场利率的传导效应都不显著,且存在一些和理论相悖的情况,如市场利率上调会推动消费增长加快、管制利率上调会推动物价水平走高等。研究同时表明,管制利率和市场利率的传导效应存在一定差异:从利率调整的作用时效看,在利率调整后较短时间内,管制利率的传导效应大于市场利率,但从较长时间看,市场利率的传导效应大于管制利率;从影响利率调整的因素看,物价水平的变化会导致中央银行对管制利率的调整,因此我国央行对金融机构存贷款利率的调整在某种程度上遵循的是“通胀目标制”,但同时,投资、消费、总产出和物价水平的变化都不会导致我国市场利率发生变化,反映出目前我国央行公开市场操作的主要目标仍是调整市场的流动性而不是市场利率。
第五,在前面研究结论的基础上,本文对影响我国利率传导机制的传导效应的制约因素进行了分析。分析显示,影响我国利率传导机制传导效应的制约因素主要包括:利率管制的影响、微观经济主体利率敏感度低的影响、商业银行逐利经营行为的影响、金融市场发展不完善的影响等几方面。
最后,本文基于前述研究结论,有针对性地提出了相关的政策建议:一是加快推进利率市场化改革;二是不断提高实体经济对利率的敏感性;三是加快发展金融市场;四是提高央行货币政策操作的独立性。
Interest rates transmission mechanism is a process effecting the whole national economy, which reflects the way that monetary policy regulate interest rate, and how other economic variables, such as consuming and investment, had been caused through it. Since the 90s of the 20th century, with the world's financial deregulation relaxed and financial innovation accelerated, it has been more difficult in the money supply indicators' definition, statistics and monitoring, and it has been weakened continuously in the relationship of macroeconomic variables between money supply, national income and prices. Therefore, many western countries turned their monetary policy framework into interest rate-driven, which means that interest rate becomes the main channel of monetary policy transmission in these countries. As far as Chinese conditions, it has great theoretical and practical significance to carry out research of interest rate transmission mechanism in China in such a domestic and international environment of the interest rate market reforming deepened and the status of the interest rate transmission mechanism gradually improved.
In this dissertation, it has firstly introduced the theory of the interest rate transmission mechanism and its usage in the major developed countries. And it has reviewed the history of regulation since the founding of PRC. As we know that the interest rate perspective in major developed countries are carried out monetary policy by the central bank to guide changes in benchmark interest rates which will lead changes in the whole interest rate system. So that it can effect investment, consumption and other behaviours for achieving effective transmission of monetary policy. In China, it has the regulation system as the above as well as direct regulation of adjusting deposit and loan interest rate in the existing financial institutions by China central bank. So the interest rate transmission mechanism is Dual-Track in China.
Secondly, this paper reviewed the main theory of market-based rates, carried out Chinese process, and summary and analysis our country's current system and its characteristics because the development of interest rate transmission mechanism depends on the degree of its marketization. At present, China's interest rate in the call market, the inter-bank bond market, and bill market has been basically realized marketization. However, it still needs gradual promotion at deposit and loan rates in financial institutions. Thus the current interest rates in China shows resisting the coexistence of control and market which has increased complexity in the interest rate transmission mechanism.
Thirdly, this dissertation has studied deeply on transmission effect in China's benchmark interest rate because it has played a prominent role in the transmission mechanism as the practice in major developed countries. And Research suggests that the benchmark interest rate movements can affect the credit market interest rates on the condition of total free interest rate market, thereby achieving effective transmission of monetary policy. While on the parallel case of the control interest rates and market interest rates, the interest rate transmission mechanism in most cases is invalid because monetary policy can only effect a limited region on currency demand curve. In order to demonstrate the results of theoretical research, this paper implement an empirical study on the benchmark interest rate transmission effect. From the empirical results, the current operations in open market in China has a more significant role in guiding major market benchmark interest rate which is not significant on other interest rates transmission effect, which is consistent with theoretical results. In addition, the paper notes the market as an example, empirically analysing the conduction effect of the benchmark interest rate to the real economy through the bill market, which shows that monetary policy intentions of the central bank can be transmitted to the real economy when it targets the benchmark interest rate as a monetary policy operations.
Fourthly, in view of the special case that the interest rate reform has not been completed and it has coexist in control interest rates and market interest rates, this paper has constructed a VEC system containing control interest rates and market interest rates which has comparatively analysed the three areas of investment, consumption, output and prices affected by control interest rates and market interest rates respectively through empirical research methods of co-integration test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition. The results show that control the transmission rate and market interest rate effect is both not significant as well as there is some situations that is contrary to theory, such as increasing market interest rates will push accelerating spending growth and increasing control interest rates will push prices to go higher, etc. The study also shows that there are some differences in the conduction effect in control interest rates and market interest rates, which means that the former rates is greater than the later rates in a relatively short time after the interest rate adjustments from the time of conduction effect, on the other hand, from the factors that influence adjusting interest rates changing price level will lead to adjust control interest rates by central bank, therefore China's central bank has followed the "inflation targeting"to some extent on interest rates of deposit and loans in financial institutions, at the same time, investment, consumption, total output and price level changes have not led to change market interest rates in China, reflecting that the main goal of open market operations by China's central bank remains adjusting the liquidity of the market rather than market interest rates at present.
Fifthly, based on the previous conclusions, it has analysed the constraints of transmission effects that influence interest rate transmission Mechanism, which shows that there are several factors constraining interest rate transmission mechanism which are the impact of interest rate controls, the lower sensitivity of the main micro-economic subjects about interest rate, the impact of pursuing profits on the behaviour of commercial bank, the impact of imperfect aspects in financial market development .
In the end, Based on the foregoing conclusions, it has put forward some policy recommendations: First, to accelerate market-oriented interest rate reform; second, to continuously improve the sensitivity of interest rate in the real economy; Third, to accelerate the development of financial markets; fourth, to improve policy operation independence in central bank's monetary policy.
引文
白娜,张亚珍. 2006.票据融资对货币调控影响的实证分析[J].浙江金融,(1):28-29.
柏宝春,孙松,王晓艺. 2009.货币市场基准利率实证研究—基于S HIBOR的分析[J].金融与经济,(7):23-26.
卞志村. 2005.泰勒型规则的研究文献综述[J].财经问题研究,(8):14-20.
曹彦生,李东元. 2006.利率政策执行效果的实证分析[J].经济与管理研究,(1):49-53.
陈骏. 2006.从利率传导途径看我国货币政策传导的有效性[J].经济体制改革,(1):84-88.
陈可. 2007.美日短期利率系统的比较分析及其对我国的启示[J].华南理工大学学报,(6):42-47.
陈勇,吴金友. 2008.对我国货币市场利率体系传导机制的实证研究[J].上海金融,(5):27-29.
代军勋. 2006.利率市场化与我国货币政策传导机制有效性[J].生产力研究,(10):50-51.
杜金岷,郭红兵. 2008.我国货币政策对基准收益率曲线影响的实证研究[J].理论月刊, (9):6-11.
樊卫东. 2004.我国利率市场化改革的必要性和难点突破[J].投资研究,(2):27-32.
冯涛,乔笙,苑为. 2006.双重调控下的货币政策绩效研究[J].金融研究,(2):44-51.
葛兰,易军. 2006.我国货币政策传导中利率机制的缺失及原因分析[J].商场现代化, 1月下旬刊:29.
弓永华. 2006.试论我国利率市场化改革的意义及措施[J].经济问题,(7)65-66.
谷建全,张永军. 2007.中国实际利率与货币流通速度关系的实证研究[J].经济学动态,(4):24-27.
国家计委宏观经济研究院课题组. 2002.货币市场、利率与货币政策传导有效性[J].学术研究,(2):35.
何慧刚. 2007.我国汇率—利率联动协调机制研究[J].财经问题研究, (5):58-63.
何运信. 2008.货币政策的利率期限结构效应的理论解释及其经验证据[J].财经论丛,(5):42-48.
胡朝晖,丁俊峰. 2009.利率市场化条件下我国基准利率的选择及SHIBOR运行效果评析[J].武汉金融,(5):38-40.
黄金秋,肖艳,吴婷婷. 2006.利率政策弱有效性的消费与投资诱因分析[J].经济纵横,(3):109-111.
霍楠. 2007.对我国现行人民币利率体系的思考[J].武汉金融,(3):38-39.
贾德奎. 2007.告示效应:基于我国货币市场利率的实证研究[J].财经论丛,(4):41-46.
金昌骏. 2007.货币政策操作与欧元区货币市场基准利率应用[J].中国货币市场,(9):46-49.
凯恩斯著,徐毓扔译. 1997.就业利息和货币通论[M] .北京:商务印书馆.
孔德刚. 2007.对我国利率市场化改革的阶段性评价[J].投资研究,(2):15-19.
方先明.花旻. 2009,SHIBOR能成为中国货币市场基准利率吗[J]经济学家, (1):85-92.
李慧中,吴璟桉. 2008.中国利率改革三十年的逻辑[J].上海金融,(8):5-10.
李晓晴. 2005.我国利率市场化的几个理论问题[J].经济问题第,(8):2-4.
李云林. 2007.美欧的货币政策及对我国的启示[J].宏观经济管理,(6):71-74.
刘辰君. 2009.欧元区货币市场基准利率的运行机制与启示[J].新会计第,(1):41-43.
刘仁伍,黄革,戴鸿广. 2007.我国货币政策基准利率的述评及SHIBOR体系的完善[J].海南金融, (12):11-15.
刘兴先,颜永琦. 2007.改革开放以来我国利率水平的演变及调控功效[J].中共福建省委党校学报,(7):62-67.
欧永生. 2005.我国的“信贷渠道”辨析[J].湖北社会科学,(4):86-87.
潘耀明,胡莹,仲伟周. 2008.基于利率途径的货币政策传导效果实证研究[J].上海金融,(3):47-51.
庞晓波,朱毅,尹嘉啉. 2008.中国金融改革进程中的利率敏感性问题研究[J].当代经济研究,(10):48-52.
彭兴韵. 2008.加强利率机制在货币调控中的作用[J].经济学动态,(2):60-76.
钱水土,于广文. 2004.从利率与经济增长的关系看我国利率市场的变化[J].浙江学刊,(1):160-163.
石柱鲜,孙皓,邓创. 2008.中国主要宏观经济变量与利率期限结构的关系:基于VAR-ATSM模型的分析[J].世界经济,(3):53-59.
宋芳秀. 2008.中国利率作用机制的有效性与利率调控的效果[J].经济学动态,(2):55-59.
宋立. 2003.货币政策的信贷传导渠道问题与建议[J].经济研究参考, (13):32-44.
宋玮,黄燕芬. 2006.我国利率市场化改革与货币供给内生性弱化之关联性分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,(1):46-50.
苏宁. 2006.我国票据业务发展概况及展望[J].中国金融,(7):6-8.
孙敬祥. 2008.我国货币政策利率传导机制的分析与检验[J].经济师,(8):44-45.
孙小丽. 2006.利率市场化与货币政策传导机制优化[J].商场现代化,总(462):1.
谢平,焦瑾璞. 2002.中国货币政策争论[M].北京:中国金融出版社.
汤毅林. 2008.我国利率政策的局限性分析[J].商业经济与管理,(2):63-68.
唐安宝,何凌云. 2007.中美利率政策产出效应的比较分析:1996-2006[J].环球金融,(11):54-59.
唐安宝,周建平,刘志超. 2005.中美货币政策利率传导机制实施过程和传导效果的比较分析[J].南方金融,(6):22-25.
唐雪莲. 2003.票据市场发展对货币政策传导的影响[J].银行与经济,(6):31-33.
唐振龙. 2006.论利率市场化与货币政策[J].生产力研究,(5):48-50.
王德忠,秦丽. 2008.我国利率传导机制区域异化的内生逻辑[J].财经科学, (9):19-26.
王国生. 2004.我国利率市场化问题讨论综述[J].经济理论与经济管理,(7):76-80.
王洪斌. 2004.利率市场化的货币模型分析—从一种全新角度的审视[J].南开经济研究,(5):71-78.
王森,蒋贤锋. 2006.中国利率调整对消费作用的实证分析[J].求是学刊,第33卷,(2):60-66.
王世伟,赵保国. 2005.中国利率市场化改革前景分析:理论依据与经验借鉴[J].金融论坛,(5):56-63.
王颖,李浩勇. 2006.对我国利率市场化改革的理性思考[J].经济问题,(6):63-64.
温柯. 2003.货币政策传导机制有效性呼唤利率市场化[J].财经科学,(5):3-4
武建新,张智勤. 2008.基于基准利率视角的Shibor和我国国债收益率比较研究[J].证券与保险,(8):32-35.
谢平,袁沁敔. 2003.我国近年利率政策的效果分析[J].金融研究,(5):1-13.
徐雪萌,蓝发钦. 2007.资本账户开放与中国国际收支的调节[J].华东师范大学学报,第39卷,(2):72-77.
徐彦,许歆,金隽. 2005.美国利率传导机制对我国利率市场化的启示[J].经济论坛,(11):6-8.
许世琴. 2004.票据市场与货币政策传导的研究[J].生产力研究,(7):51-52.
冀志斌,周先平. 2008.中国的货币政策有效吗?[J].中南财经政法大学学报,(5):3-9.
杨黎明. 2006.金融发展的路径依赖与利率市场化[J].经济问题,(7):57-59.
叶菲,汪轶. 2007.推动利率期限结构动态变化的宏观经济因素[J].上海金融,(7):40-42.
应儿. 2004.改革货币政策传导机制的建议[J].上海金融,(4):53-54.
张国喜. 2007.对提高我国货币市场传导货币政策效率的探讨[J].经济体制改革,(1):129-132.
张林,何广文. 2009.我国货币市场基准利率SHIBOR实证分析及运行评价[J].金融理论与实践,(4):9-12.
张林,何广文. 2009.我国货币市场基准利率SHIBOR实证分析与运行评价[J].金融理论与实践, (4):9-12.
张谊浩,陈玫. 2004.中日货币政策比较研究[J].日本问题研究,(4):12-16.
张自力. 2006.论现阶段我国货币政策利率传导机制的完善[J].特区经济,(1):53-55.
赵天荣,赵蕊. 2008.利率调整与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].上海金融,(8):11-14.
赵婷. 2009.欧央行货币政策目标、策略及工具研究[J].南方金融,(3):37-40.
赵颖岚. 2008.李卉婷.实际利率差模型的研究[J].统计与决策,(15):128-130.
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组. 2008.银行间市场基准利率体系选择及SHIBOR运行分析[J].金融论坛,(4):3-8.
中国人民银行上海总部调研部课题组. 2008.Shibor革命及其经济意义[J].上海金融,(7):5-9.
周纲,陈金贤.2009.利率传导机制分析[J].经济经纬,(3):124-128.
Ben Bemake , Frederic Mishklin .1992. Central Bank Behavior and the Strategy of Monetary Policy Observations from Six Industrialized Countries [J], NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol.7:183-228.
Beng Soon Chong, Ming-Hua Liu, Keshab Shrestha. 2006. Monetary transmission via the administered interest rates channl [J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, No.30, pp: 1467-1484
Benjamin M.1982. Friedman Federal Reserve Policy Interest Rate Volatility ,and the U.S.Capital Raising Mechanism [J]. Journal of Money,Credit and Banking, Vol.14, No.4 Part 2. The Conduct of U.S. Monetary Policy. (Nov.), pp: 721-745.
Bernanke Ben, Alan Blinder. 1992. The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission, The American Economic Review, Vol.82, No.4, pp: 901-921.
Bollerslev T, et al . 1988 . A capital-asset pricing model with time-varying coefficients[J ] . Journal of Political Economy , 96 :116-131.
Carl E Walsh. 1984. Interest Rate Volantility and Monetary Policy [J]. Journal of Money ,Credit and Banking, Vol.16, No.2 (May,): 133-150.
Chari, V. V. etc. 1995. Inside Money, Oustside Money, and Short-Term Interest Rates, Jouranl of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.27, No.4.
Conzalez-Helmosillo B. & Ito. T. 1997. The bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Framework: Have Recent Changes Enhanced Central Bank Gredibility?, IMF Working Paper 97/171.
Daniel C. Hardy .1998. Anticipation and Surprises in Central Bank Interest Rate Policy The Case of the Bundesbank [J]. Staff Papers- International Monetary Fund ,Vol.45, No.4 (Dec.), pp: 647-671.
David Fidlding, Paul Mizen. 1997.Investmen, Output and Interest Rate Policy When Capital is Mobile[J], The Economic Journal, Vol.107, No.441, (Mar): 431-440.
Dennis R. Starleaf. James A. Stephenson. 1969. A Suggested Solution to the Monetary-Policy Indicator Problem The Monetary Full Employment Interest Rate[J]. The Journal of Finance, Vol.24, No.4. (Stp.): 623-641.
Donald P. Tucker. 1963. Credit Rationing ,Interest Rate Lags, and Monetary Policy Speed [J]. The Journal of Political Economy, Vol.71, No.4. (Aug.): 347-362.
Eric T. Swanson..2006. Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts? [J]. Journal of Money Credit and Banking:792-817.
Eugenio Gaioth, Alessandro Secchi. 2006. Is There a Cost Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission? An Investigation into the Pricing Behavior of 2000 Firms [J]. Journal of Money, Credit ,and Banking, December Vol. 38, No.8:2013-2037.
Fracnco Mdoigliani, Richard Sutch. 1966. Money and Banking Innovations in Finance-innovation in interest rate [J]. Journal of The American Economic Review, Vol.56, No.1/2, (Mar-May):178-197.
Franco Modigliani .Robert Rasche. J. Philip Cooper.1970. Central Bank Policy .the Money Supply.And the Short-Term Rate of Interest [J]. Journal of Money,Credit and Banking, Vol.2, No.2. (May,): 166-218.
Frederic S. Mishkin. 1995. Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism [J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives , Vol.9, No.4, Fall: 3-10.
Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Pietro Garibaldi. 1998. Bank lending and interest rate changes in a dynamic matching model. [R]. IMF working paper(June).
Gordon H. Sellon Jr.. 2004. Expectations and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism. [J]. Journal of Economic Review Fourth Quarter: 5-41.
Guillerno A Galvo .Carlos A. Vegh. 1990. Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy The Predetermined Exchange Rates Case [J], Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund, Vol.37, No.4 (Dec):735-776.
Gurcharan S. Laumas .1989. Anticipated Federal Budget Deticits ,Monetary Policy and the Rate of Interest[J]. Southern Economic Journal, Vol.56, No.2.(Oct.): 75-382.
H. Sonmez Atesoglu, John Smithin. 2006. Inflation targeting in a simple macroeconomic model [J]. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Summer Vol.28, No.4:673-688.
J.Safaei, N.E.Cameron. 2003. Credit channel and credit shocks in Canadian macrodynamics–a structural VAR approach [J]. Journal of Applied Financial Economics, No.13:267-277.
James Van Horne.1996. Interest-Rate Expectations. The Shape of the Yield Curve and Monetary Policy[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.48, No.2 (May.): 211-215. Johnson. H. G. .1962. Monetary Theory and Policy, American Economic Review, 52(3), June:335-384.
Judd, J. P, Rudebusch, G. R.1998. Taylor’s Rule and the Fed: 1970-1997, FRBSF Economic Review,3,3-16. Chicago: The University of Chicageo Press.
Klaus Adam, Roberto M. Billi. 2006. Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates [J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, October, Vol.38, No.7:1878-1905.
Louis-Philippe,Rochon,Sergio Rossi. 2006. Inflation targeting economic performance and income distibution: a monetary macroeconmics analysis [J]. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Summer, Vol.28, No.4 pp:615-637.
Marvin Goodfriend . 2000. Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy [J]. Journal of Money. Credit and Banking, Vol.32, No.4 Pnrt 2. Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment .(Nov.):1007-1035.
MeCallum, B.T. 2000. Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates.[]J. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 32: 870-904.
Patinkin, D. 1956. Money, Interest, and Prices, New York: Happer and Row.
Phillip Arestis, Panicoso o. Demetriades Kul. B. luintel. 1997. Finance Development and Economic Grouth: The Role of Stock Markets.[J]. Journal of Money Credit and Banking.
Ralph C. Bryant.2000.Comment on Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy [J]. Journal of Money ,Credit and Banking, Vol.32, No.4 Part 2. Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment .(Nov):1051-1057.
Richard H. Timberlake. JR.. 2007. Gold Standards and the Real Bills Doctrine in U.S. Monerary Policy [J]. Journal of The Independent Review Winter Vol.XI, No.3:1086-1653.
Robert Anderson .Albert Ando. Jared Enzler. 1984. Interaction Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy and the Real Rate of Interest. The American Economic Review, Vol.74, No.2. Papers and Proceedings of the Ninety-Sixth Annual Mleeting of the American Economic Association. (May.): 55-60.
Seppo Kostiainen, Heikki Taimio. 1988. Interest Rate Policy with Expectations of Devaluation [J]. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol.90, No.2: 211-224.
Stepben G. Ceccbetti.1999. Legal Structure. Financial Sttucture, and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism [J]. Journal of Frbny Economic Policy Review ,,(6):9-28.
Thomas A.Lawler. 1963. Federal Reserve Policy Strategy and the Rate of Interest [J]. The Journal of Political Economy ,Vol.71, No.4 (Aug,): 347-362.
Thomas D. Willett. 1969. Francesco Foite Interest Rate Policy and External Balance [J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.83, No.2 (May): 242-262.
Thomas Wilson. 1957. The Rate of Interest and Monetary Policy [J]. Oxford Economic Papers New Series, Vol.9, No.3 (Oct): 235-260.
Tobin, James & Swan, Graig. 1969.Money and Permanent Income :Some Empirical Tests, American Economic Review, American Economic Association, , Vol.59(2):85-95.
Tobin, James. 1965.The Theory of Portfolio Selection, The Theory of Interest Rates, Edited by F. H. Hahn and F.P. Brechling, London, Mac millan :22.
Volker Clausen,Bernd Hayo Asymmetric. 2006. Monetary Policy Effects in EMU [J]. Journal of Applied Ecnomics, No.38.1123-1134.
Woodford, Michael. 2003. Interest and prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy, Princeton::Princeton University Press.
柏宝春,孙松,王晓艺. 2009.货币市场基准利率实证研究—基于S HIBOR的分析[J].金融与经济,(7):23-26.
卞志村. 2005.泰勒型规则的研究文献综述[J].财经问题研究,(8):14-20.
曹彦生,李东元. 2006.利率政策执行效果的实证分析[J].经济与管理研究,(1):49-53.
陈骏. 2006.从利率传导途径看我国货币政策传导的有效性[J].经济体制改革,(1):84-88.
陈可. 2007.美日短期利率系统的比较分析及其对我国的启示[J].华南理工大学学报,(6):42-47.
陈勇,吴金友. 2008.对我国货币市场利率体系传导机制的实证研究[J].上海金融,(5):27-29.
代军勋. 2006.利率市场化与我国货币政策传导机制有效性[J].生产力研究,(10):50-51.
杜金岷,郭红兵. 2008.我国货币政策对基准收益率曲线影响的实证研究[J].理论月刊, (9):6-11.
樊卫东. 2004.我国利率市场化改革的必要性和难点突破[J].投资研究,(2):27-32.
冯涛,乔笙,苑为. 2006.双重调控下的货币政策绩效研究[J].金融研究,(2):44-51.
葛兰,易军. 2006.我国货币政策传导中利率机制的缺失及原因分析[J].商场现代化, 1月下旬刊:29.
弓永华. 2006.试论我国利率市场化改革的意义及措施[J].经济问题,(7)65-66.
谷建全,张永军. 2007.中国实际利率与货币流通速度关系的实证研究[J].经济学动态,(4):24-27.
国家计委宏观经济研究院课题组. 2002.货币市场、利率与货币政策传导有效性[J].学术研究,(2):35.
何慧刚. 2007.我国汇率—利率联动协调机制研究[J].财经问题研究, (5):58-63.
何运信. 2008.货币政策的利率期限结构效应的理论解释及其经验证据[J].财经论丛,(5):42-48.
胡朝晖,丁俊峰. 2009.利率市场化条件下我国基准利率的选择及SHIBOR运行效果评析[J].武汉金融,(5):38-40.
黄金秋,肖艳,吴婷婷. 2006.利率政策弱有效性的消费与投资诱因分析[J].经济纵横,(3):109-111.
霍楠. 2007.对我国现行人民币利率体系的思考[J].武汉金融,(3):38-39.
贾德奎. 2007.告示效应:基于我国货币市场利率的实证研究[J].财经论丛,(4):41-46.
金昌骏. 2007.货币政策操作与欧元区货币市场基准利率应用[J].中国货币市场,(9):46-49.
凯恩斯著,徐毓扔译. 1997.就业利息和货币通论[M] .北京:商务印书馆.
孔德刚. 2007.对我国利率市场化改革的阶段性评价[J].投资研究,(2):15-19.
方先明.花旻. 2009,SHIBOR能成为中国货币市场基准利率吗[J]经济学家, (1):85-92.
李慧中,吴璟桉. 2008.中国利率改革三十年的逻辑[J].上海金融,(8):5-10.
李晓晴. 2005.我国利率市场化的几个理论问题[J].经济问题第,(8):2-4.
李云林. 2007.美欧的货币政策及对我国的启示[J].宏观经济管理,(6):71-74.
刘辰君. 2009.欧元区货币市场基准利率的运行机制与启示[J].新会计第,(1):41-43.
刘仁伍,黄革,戴鸿广. 2007.我国货币政策基准利率的述评及SHIBOR体系的完善[J].海南金融, (12):11-15.
刘兴先,颜永琦. 2007.改革开放以来我国利率水平的演变及调控功效[J].中共福建省委党校学报,(7):62-67.
欧永生. 2005.我国的“信贷渠道”辨析[J].湖北社会科学,(4):86-87.
潘耀明,胡莹,仲伟周. 2008.基于利率途径的货币政策传导效果实证研究[J].上海金融,(3):47-51.
庞晓波,朱毅,尹嘉啉. 2008.中国金融改革进程中的利率敏感性问题研究[J].当代经济研究,(10):48-52.
彭兴韵. 2008.加强利率机制在货币调控中的作用[J].经济学动态,(2):60-76.
钱水土,于广文. 2004.从利率与经济增长的关系看我国利率市场的变化[J].浙江学刊,(1):160-163.
石柱鲜,孙皓,邓创. 2008.中国主要宏观经济变量与利率期限结构的关系:基于VAR-ATSM模型的分析[J].世界经济,(3):53-59.
宋芳秀. 2008.中国利率作用机制的有效性与利率调控的效果[J].经济学动态,(2):55-59.
宋立. 2003.货币政策的信贷传导渠道问题与建议[J].经济研究参考, (13):32-44.
宋玮,黄燕芬. 2006.我国利率市场化改革与货币供给内生性弱化之关联性分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,(1):46-50.
苏宁. 2006.我国票据业务发展概况及展望[J].中国金融,(7):6-8.
孙敬祥. 2008.我国货币政策利率传导机制的分析与检验[J].经济师,(8):44-45.
孙小丽. 2006.利率市场化与货币政策传导机制优化[J].商场现代化,总(462):1.
谢平,焦瑾璞. 2002.中国货币政策争论[M].北京:中国金融出版社.
汤毅林. 2008.我国利率政策的局限性分析[J].商业经济与管理,(2):63-68.
唐安宝,何凌云. 2007.中美利率政策产出效应的比较分析:1996-2006[J].环球金融,(11):54-59.
唐安宝,周建平,刘志超. 2005.中美货币政策利率传导机制实施过程和传导效果的比较分析[J].南方金融,(6):22-25.
唐雪莲. 2003.票据市场发展对货币政策传导的影响[J].银行与经济,(6):31-33.
唐振龙. 2006.论利率市场化与货币政策[J].生产力研究,(5):48-50.
王德忠,秦丽. 2008.我国利率传导机制区域异化的内生逻辑[J].财经科学, (9):19-26.
王国生. 2004.我国利率市场化问题讨论综述[J].经济理论与经济管理,(7):76-80.
王洪斌. 2004.利率市场化的货币模型分析—从一种全新角度的审视[J].南开经济研究,(5):71-78.
王森,蒋贤锋. 2006.中国利率调整对消费作用的实证分析[J].求是学刊,第33卷,(2):60-66.
王世伟,赵保国. 2005.中国利率市场化改革前景分析:理论依据与经验借鉴[J].金融论坛,(5):56-63.
王颖,李浩勇. 2006.对我国利率市场化改革的理性思考[J].经济问题,(6):63-64.
温柯. 2003.货币政策传导机制有效性呼唤利率市场化[J].财经科学,(5):3-4
武建新,张智勤. 2008.基于基准利率视角的Shibor和我国国债收益率比较研究[J].证券与保险,(8):32-35.
谢平,袁沁敔. 2003.我国近年利率政策的效果分析[J].金融研究,(5):1-13.
徐雪萌,蓝发钦. 2007.资本账户开放与中国国际收支的调节[J].华东师范大学学报,第39卷,(2):72-77.
徐彦,许歆,金隽. 2005.美国利率传导机制对我国利率市场化的启示[J].经济论坛,(11):6-8.
许世琴. 2004.票据市场与货币政策传导的研究[J].生产力研究,(7):51-52.
冀志斌,周先平. 2008.中国的货币政策有效吗?[J].中南财经政法大学学报,(5):3-9.
杨黎明. 2006.金融发展的路径依赖与利率市场化[J].经济问题,(7):57-59.
叶菲,汪轶. 2007.推动利率期限结构动态变化的宏观经济因素[J].上海金融,(7):40-42.
应儿. 2004.改革货币政策传导机制的建议[J].上海金融,(4):53-54.
张国喜. 2007.对提高我国货币市场传导货币政策效率的探讨[J].经济体制改革,(1):129-132.
张林,何广文. 2009.我国货币市场基准利率SHIBOR实证分析及运行评价[J].金融理论与实践,(4):9-12.
张林,何广文. 2009.我国货币市场基准利率SHIBOR实证分析与运行评价[J].金融理论与实践, (4):9-12.
张谊浩,陈玫. 2004.中日货币政策比较研究[J].日本问题研究,(4):12-16.
张自力. 2006.论现阶段我国货币政策利率传导机制的完善[J].特区经济,(1):53-55.
赵天荣,赵蕊. 2008.利率调整与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].上海金融,(8):11-14.
赵婷. 2009.欧央行货币政策目标、策略及工具研究[J].南方金融,(3):37-40.
赵颖岚. 2008.李卉婷.实际利率差模型的研究[J].统计与决策,(15):128-130.
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组. 2008.银行间市场基准利率体系选择及SHIBOR运行分析[J].金融论坛,(4):3-8.
中国人民银行上海总部调研部课题组. 2008.Shibor革命及其经济意义[J].上海金融,(7):5-9.
周纲,陈金贤.2009.利率传导机制分析[J].经济经纬,(3):124-128.
Ben Bemake , Frederic Mishklin .1992. Central Bank Behavior and the Strategy of Monetary Policy Observations from Six Industrialized Countries [J], NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol.7:183-228.
Beng Soon Chong, Ming-Hua Liu, Keshab Shrestha. 2006. Monetary transmission via the administered interest rates channl [J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, No.30, pp: 1467-1484
Benjamin M.1982. Friedman Federal Reserve Policy Interest Rate Volatility ,and the U.S.Capital Raising Mechanism [J]. Journal of Money,Credit and Banking, Vol.14, No.4 Part 2. The Conduct of U.S. Monetary Policy. (Nov.), pp: 721-745.
Bernanke Ben, Alan Blinder. 1992. The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission, The American Economic Review, Vol.82, No.4, pp: 901-921.
Bollerslev T, et al . 1988 . A capital-asset pricing model with time-varying coefficients[J ] . Journal of Political Economy , 96 :116-131.
Carl E Walsh. 1984. Interest Rate Volantility and Monetary Policy [J]. Journal of Money ,Credit and Banking, Vol.16, No.2 (May,): 133-150.
Chari, V. V. etc. 1995. Inside Money, Oustside Money, and Short-Term Interest Rates, Jouranl of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.27, No.4.
Conzalez-Helmosillo B. & Ito. T. 1997. The bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Framework: Have Recent Changes Enhanced Central Bank Gredibility?, IMF Working Paper 97/171.
Daniel C. Hardy .1998. Anticipation and Surprises in Central Bank Interest Rate Policy The Case of the Bundesbank [J]. Staff Papers- International Monetary Fund ,Vol.45, No.4 (Dec.), pp: 647-671.
David Fidlding, Paul Mizen. 1997.Investmen, Output and Interest Rate Policy When Capital is Mobile[J], The Economic Journal, Vol.107, No.441, (Mar): 431-440.
Dennis R. Starleaf. James A. Stephenson. 1969. A Suggested Solution to the Monetary-Policy Indicator Problem The Monetary Full Employment Interest Rate[J]. The Journal of Finance, Vol.24, No.4. (Stp.): 623-641.
Donald P. Tucker. 1963. Credit Rationing ,Interest Rate Lags, and Monetary Policy Speed [J]. The Journal of Political Economy, Vol.71, No.4. (Aug.): 347-362.
Eric T. Swanson..2006. Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts? [J]. Journal of Money Credit and Banking:792-817.
Eugenio Gaioth, Alessandro Secchi. 2006. Is There a Cost Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission? An Investigation into the Pricing Behavior of 2000 Firms [J]. Journal of Money, Credit ,and Banking, December Vol. 38, No.8:2013-2037.
Fracnco Mdoigliani, Richard Sutch. 1966. Money and Banking Innovations in Finance-innovation in interest rate [J]. Journal of The American Economic Review, Vol.56, No.1/2, (Mar-May):178-197.
Franco Modigliani .Robert Rasche. J. Philip Cooper.1970. Central Bank Policy .the Money Supply.And the Short-Term Rate of Interest [J]. Journal of Money,Credit and Banking, Vol.2, No.2. (May,): 166-218.
Frederic S. Mishkin. 1995. Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism [J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives , Vol.9, No.4, Fall: 3-10.
Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Pietro Garibaldi. 1998. Bank lending and interest rate changes in a dynamic matching model. [R]. IMF working paper(June).
Gordon H. Sellon Jr.. 2004. Expectations and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism. [J]. Journal of Economic Review Fourth Quarter: 5-41.
Guillerno A Galvo .Carlos A. Vegh. 1990. Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy The Predetermined Exchange Rates Case [J], Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund, Vol.37, No.4 (Dec):735-776.
Gurcharan S. Laumas .1989. Anticipated Federal Budget Deticits ,Monetary Policy and the Rate of Interest[J]. Southern Economic Journal, Vol.56, No.2.(Oct.): 75-382.
H. Sonmez Atesoglu, John Smithin. 2006. Inflation targeting in a simple macroeconomic model [J]. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Summer Vol.28, No.4:673-688.
J.Safaei, N.E.Cameron. 2003. Credit channel and credit shocks in Canadian macrodynamics–a structural VAR approach [J]. Journal of Applied Financial Economics, No.13:267-277.
James Van Horne.1996. Interest-Rate Expectations. The Shape of the Yield Curve and Monetary Policy[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.48, No.2 (May.): 211-215. Johnson. H. G. .1962. Monetary Theory and Policy, American Economic Review, 52(3), June:335-384.
Judd, J. P, Rudebusch, G. R.1998. Taylor’s Rule and the Fed: 1970-1997, FRBSF Economic Review,3,3-16. Chicago: The University of Chicageo Press.
Klaus Adam, Roberto M. Billi. 2006. Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates [J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, October, Vol.38, No.7:1878-1905.
Louis-Philippe,Rochon,Sergio Rossi. 2006. Inflation targeting economic performance and income distibution: a monetary macroeconmics analysis [J]. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Summer, Vol.28, No.4 pp:615-637.
Marvin Goodfriend . 2000. Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy [J]. Journal of Money. Credit and Banking, Vol.32, No.4 Pnrt 2. Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment .(Nov.):1007-1035.
MeCallum, B.T. 2000. Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates.[]J. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 32: 870-904.
Patinkin, D. 1956. Money, Interest, and Prices, New York: Happer and Row.
Phillip Arestis, Panicoso o. Demetriades Kul. B. luintel. 1997. Finance Development and Economic Grouth: The Role of Stock Markets.[J]. Journal of Money Credit and Banking.
Ralph C. Bryant.2000.Comment on Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy [J]. Journal of Money ,Credit and Banking, Vol.32, No.4 Part 2. Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment .(Nov):1051-1057.
Richard H. Timberlake. JR.. 2007. Gold Standards and the Real Bills Doctrine in U.S. Monerary Policy [J]. Journal of The Independent Review Winter Vol.XI, No.3:1086-1653.
Robert Anderson .Albert Ando. Jared Enzler. 1984. Interaction Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy and the Real Rate of Interest. The American Economic Review, Vol.74, No.2. Papers and Proceedings of the Ninety-Sixth Annual Mleeting of the American Economic Association. (May.): 55-60.
Seppo Kostiainen, Heikki Taimio. 1988. Interest Rate Policy with Expectations of Devaluation [J]. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol.90, No.2: 211-224.
Stepben G. Ceccbetti.1999. Legal Structure. Financial Sttucture, and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism [J]. Journal of Frbny Economic Policy Review ,,(6):9-28.
Thomas A.Lawler. 1963. Federal Reserve Policy Strategy and the Rate of Interest [J]. The Journal of Political Economy ,Vol.71, No.4 (Aug,): 347-362.
Thomas D. Willett. 1969. Francesco Foite Interest Rate Policy and External Balance [J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.83, No.2 (May): 242-262.
Thomas Wilson. 1957. The Rate of Interest and Monetary Policy [J]. Oxford Economic Papers New Series, Vol.9, No.3 (Oct): 235-260.
Tobin, James & Swan, Graig. 1969.Money and Permanent Income :Some Empirical Tests, American Economic Review, American Economic Association, , Vol.59(2):85-95.
Tobin, James. 1965.The Theory of Portfolio Selection, The Theory of Interest Rates, Edited by F. H. Hahn and F.P. Brechling, London, Mac millan :22.
Volker Clausen,Bernd Hayo Asymmetric. 2006. Monetary Policy Effects in EMU [J]. Journal of Applied Ecnomics, No.38.1123-1134.
Woodford, Michael. 2003. Interest and prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy, Princeton::Princeton University Press.