吉林省高速公路安全评价方法研究
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摘要
在当今时代汽车日益成为人们生活中的必需品,伴随而来的道路交通事故也给人们带来很多的困苦和不幸。目前世界各国都在积极地治理道路交通事故,我国的交通事故发生率一直处于相当高的水平,给人们的生活和财产造成巨大损失。经过最近几年的综合治理,我国的交通事故死亡率、伤亡人数、经济损失都有所下降,但是在道路交通安全评价方面一直没有一套完整的安全评价体系,致使交通事故在发生前没有得到有效地控制,同时在道路设计之初也没办法提供有价值的参考依据。
本文正是基于这种考虑,通过对吉林省道路交通情况的详细调查,搜集了大量资料。从面到线、线到点,由宏观到微观来逐层次地进行评价,不同的层面评价运用不同的评价方法。在面这个层次上采用数理统计分析方法,评判出吉林省道路交通安全发展趋势以及相关因素对其的影响;线层面采用模糊层次分析法对选出的五条高速公路进行评价,确定哪条最优;点层面是选择一条高速公路确定出其事故多发的地点,从而初步形成一套以吉林省为样本的道路交通安全评价系统。
With automobile possess amount increasing each year, vehicle have not been contained by road transportation establishment, consequently road traffic accidents often happened and brought loss to people life and belongings. Road transportation system is component of people, vehicle, road, environment, anyone element destroyed that will lead to road traffic accidents happened. Research of this paper is mainly road aspect,via research for domestic and foreign road traffic accidents, foreign people average automobile possess amount is much more than my country, but road traffic accidents frequency much less, because of foreign countries have a suit of full road traffic safety appraise system in road traffic safety guarantee aspect. By appraising to safety of road can prevent traffic accidents and control in effect before traffic accidents, meanwhile, accidents when happening and have happened will be ensured in time.
This paper appraised road traffic via investigating widely Ji Lin Province road traffic status, combining Ji Lin Province road characteristic from total area of JI LIN Province, several expressways, a section of the certain expressway, viz. from face to line, from line to point.
1)To appraise road traffic safety for total area is propitious to find influence of road traffic safety on road and circumstance of people, vehicle, road and circumstance, Ji Lin is province that the four seasons are distinct, the climate is different in each season, thus will lead to happen different accident, so it is highly necessary that appraising road traffic safety for total area.
When appraising for total area of Ji Lin Province, firstly confirm the indicator of road traffic safety appraisement,via analyzing indicator and settling traffic datum that have obtained. Secondly apply statistics means to analyze the datum and confirm the factor of affecting road traffic safety, find cause that each factor affect road traffic safety. Lastly obtain relation of each factor and road traffic accident by analyzing datum, confirm total development trend of road traffic accident.
2) Reason of safety rank is analyzed by appraising road safety for one area and combining particular status of each road. The cause is analyzed for road of more accidents and more dangerous section of a highway, give amendatory advices for the cause. The cause is analyzed for road of less accidents and safer section of a highway, give experience to other roads, it is importantly helpful for reducing road traffic accident.
Several expressways will be appraised for the area, FAHP is applied to safety appraisement analysis for five expressway was chosen in this paper. Firstly affecting factors of road transportation safety are analyzed, found fuzzy consistency matrix by several influencing factors chosen. Proportion of each factor of expert evaluation is combined and disposed conformably. Lastly single factor priority value of each expressway will be computed, then confirm which expressway is good and is bad in certain aspect and which one is more excellent and inferior in synthetic aspect.
3)After appraising face, line of road traffic, lastly points of road traffic, more points of the road traffic accident are confirmed by choosing one expressway. Via analyzing accident more points, can find main cause of accident, can confirm type of accident, can obtain relation of accident and road traffic condition, then may find out shortcoming of road traffic design, adopt pertinence amendatory measure, the least devotion can exchange for the farthest reducing accidents, then can improve in effect present road safety level.
Dynamic clustering analysis means is mainly applied to more point of accident confirmed, firstly base on point of accident (peg number of road) confirming first agglomerate point, computer section of more accident road with dynamic clustering analysis means, viz. AC section of road in this paper. accidents character indicator is converted to relative addition of prevalent consistent unit economy loss with danger degree, more than difference standard is more point of accident.
Base on road line form of more point of accident and type of accident in the paper, bring forward some handling homologous strategy and particular actualizing scheme.
本文正是基于这种考虑,通过对吉林省道路交通情况的详细调查,搜集了大量资料。从面到线、线到点,由宏观到微观来逐层次地进行评价,不同的层面评价运用不同的评价方法。在面这个层次上采用数理统计分析方法,评判出吉林省道路交通安全发展趋势以及相关因素对其的影响;线层面采用模糊层次分析法对选出的五条高速公路进行评价,确定哪条最优;点层面是选择一条高速公路确定出其事故多发的地点,从而初步形成一套以吉林省为样本的道路交通安全评价系统。
With automobile possess amount increasing each year, vehicle have not been contained by road transportation establishment, consequently road traffic accidents often happened and brought loss to people life and belongings. Road transportation system is component of people, vehicle, road, environment, anyone element destroyed that will lead to road traffic accidents happened. Research of this paper is mainly road aspect,via research for domestic and foreign road traffic accidents, foreign people average automobile possess amount is much more than my country, but road traffic accidents frequency much less, because of foreign countries have a suit of full road traffic safety appraise system in road traffic safety guarantee aspect. By appraising to safety of road can prevent traffic accidents and control in effect before traffic accidents, meanwhile, accidents when happening and have happened will be ensured in time.
This paper appraised road traffic via investigating widely Ji Lin Province road traffic status, combining Ji Lin Province road characteristic from total area of JI LIN Province, several expressways, a section of the certain expressway, viz. from face to line, from line to point.
1)To appraise road traffic safety for total area is propitious to find influence of road traffic safety on road and circumstance of people, vehicle, road and circumstance, Ji Lin is province that the four seasons are distinct, the climate is different in each season, thus will lead to happen different accident, so it is highly necessary that appraising road traffic safety for total area.
When appraising for total area of Ji Lin Province, firstly confirm the indicator of road traffic safety appraisement,via analyzing indicator and settling traffic datum that have obtained. Secondly apply statistics means to analyze the datum and confirm the factor of affecting road traffic safety, find cause that each factor affect road traffic safety. Lastly obtain relation of each factor and road traffic accident by analyzing datum, confirm total development trend of road traffic accident.
2) Reason of safety rank is analyzed by appraising road safety for one area and combining particular status of each road. The cause is analyzed for road of more accidents and more dangerous section of a highway, give amendatory advices for the cause. The cause is analyzed for road of less accidents and safer section of a highway, give experience to other roads, it is importantly helpful for reducing road traffic accident.
Several expressways will be appraised for the area, FAHP is applied to safety appraisement analysis for five expressway was chosen in this paper. Firstly affecting factors of road transportation safety are analyzed, found fuzzy consistency matrix by several influencing factors chosen. Proportion of each factor of expert evaluation is combined and disposed conformably. Lastly single factor priority value of each expressway will be computed, then confirm which expressway is good and is bad in certain aspect and which one is more excellent and inferior in synthetic aspect.
3)After appraising face, line of road traffic, lastly points of road traffic, more points of the road traffic accident are confirmed by choosing one expressway. Via analyzing accident more points, can find main cause of accident, can confirm type of accident, can obtain relation of accident and road traffic condition, then may find out shortcoming of road traffic design, adopt pertinence amendatory measure, the least devotion can exchange for the farthest reducing accidents, then can improve in effect present road safety level.
Dynamic clustering analysis means is mainly applied to more point of accident confirmed, firstly base on point of accident (peg number of road) confirming first agglomerate point, computer section of more accident road with dynamic clustering analysis means, viz. AC section of road in this paper. accidents character indicator is converted to relative addition of prevalent consistent unit economy loss with danger degree, more than difference standard is more point of accident.
Base on road line form of more point of accident and type of accident in the paper, bring forward some handling homologous strategy and particular actualizing scheme.
引文
[1]周华文,道路交通安全评价研究.北京工业大学硕士研究生论文,2004,6.
[2]预防道路交通伤--世界报告(概要)[C].世界卫生组织(日内瓦),2004.
[3]Estimating global road fatalities,http://www.factbook.net/EGRF_Introduction.htm
[4]《公路交通安全应用技术研究》项目概况. http://www.recchina.com/west/view_jieshao.php?id=1.
[5]叶春生.高速公路被动安全系统的研究.西安公路交通大学硕士学位论文.
[6]刘公明.道路交通事故预防[M].吉林人民出版社,2001.
[7]财团法人高速道路调查会.世界の高速公路,1999.
[8]White A. S, Often A. S. Ro-Ro Passenger Ferry Risk Analysis. Lloyd’s Register, Safety Technology Department Technical Report STD 88/18,1988.
[9]船舶交通安全指数法有关文件、实施大纲和程序使用说明书.1996.
[10]MAIB Annul Report 2001. http://www.maib.dft.gov.uk/ar2001/03.htm.
[11]TSB-Marine Occurrence Statistics. http://www.tsb.gc.ca.
[12] MASA 12th Annul Report 2001-2002. http://www.amsa.gov.au/amsa/pub/anrep.htm.
[13]Inozu B , Karaszewski Z , Schaedel P. The SOCP’s RAM database/SHIPNET:a Cross Functional Network for Ship Life Cycle Cost and Safety Decision Support. ICMES 96, 1996:111-121.
[14]Information and Data Systems, Marine Safety Manual Vol-1 Ch-12. http://www. uscg. Mil.
[15]Carlton J. S. Condition Monitoring of Marine Machinery-Recent Research and Operational Experience. Transactions of Lloyd’sRegister Technical Association Session 1994-1995.
[16]Dowe Safetec Ltd. Development of UKCS Vessel Traffic Database for DOT/UKOOA/HSE. Report No: DST-95-CR-110-02, 1996.
[17]许洪国等.交通事故分析与处理[M].人民交通出版社,2003.1:12-16.
[18]王焕德,段里仁等.道路交通事故概论[M].中国人民公安大学出版社,1997.8:7-8.
[19]《道路交通事故处理》编写组.道路交通事故处理[M].群众出版社,1991.8:12-14,324.
[20]Robb W. Risk-based Technology Methodology for the Safety Assessment of Marine Compressed Natural Gas Fuel Systems[C]. The sth ICMES/SNAME New Year Metropolitan Section Sympsium,2000.
[21]汪元辉.安全系统工程[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1999:118.
[22]Gray A Davis.Method for Estimating Effect of Traffic Volume and Speed on Pedestrian Safety for Residential Streets [J].Transportation Research Record,1998,1636.
[23]张苏.中国交通冲突技术[M].西南交通大学出版社,1998.
[24]李政,严宝杰.道路交通安全评价研究.长安大学硕士研究生论文,2001.6.
[25]姜文龙.山区公路事故多发点防治的研究[D].长春:吉林工业大学学报,1999.
[26]朱中,李淑娟.道路交通安全多层次灰关系综合评价[J].交通与计算机,1998(1).
[27]罗积玉,邢英.经济统计分析方法及预测[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1985.
[28]路峰,姜文龙.公路危险点鉴别技术研究报告[R].北京:中国人民公安大学学报,2001.
[29]克列斯特·海顿著,张苏译.交通冲突技术[M].西南交通大学出版社,1994.
[30]邓泽英.美国公路交通安全的新趋势[J].国外公路,2002(1).
[31]永泰.高速公路交通事故成因[J].交通与运输,2002.
[32]吴均.浅析高速公路交通安全影响因素及对策[J].科技资讯,2006(9).
[33]刘芳.议道路线形对行车安全的影响[J].广西交通科技,(20)3.
[34]夏万军,郭亮.高速公路交通事故成因分析和预防对策[J].交通管理研究,2001(6).
[35]许树伯.层次分析法[M].天津大学出版社,1998.
[36]姚敏,张森. 模糊一致矩阵及其在决策分析中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998(5).
[37]张吉军.模糊层次分析法[J].模糊系统与数学,2000(6).
[38]陈继光.公路路线多方案评价中的模糊一致矩阵方法[J].公路交通科技,2002(10).
[39]攀治平,姜艳萍.模糊判断矩阵的一致性及其性质[J].控制与决策,2001.
[40]黄健元.模糊一致矩阵在多层次、多因素决策方案优选中的应用[J].河海大学学报,1999(27)5.
[41]邱东.多指标综合评价方法的系统分析[M].北京:科学出版社,1999:130～131.
[42]The C1assNK Condition Assessment Program (CAP). http://www.classnk. Org.
[43]魏毅强,刘进生,王绪柱.不确定形 AHP 中判断矩阵的一致性概念及权重[J].系统工程理论与实践,1994,14(4).
[44]罗石贵,周伟.道路交通事故多发点鉴定方法探讨[J].西安公路交通大学学报,1999(19)1.
[45]过秀成.道路交通安全学[M].东南大学出版社,2001.
[46]陈照章,成立,朱湘临.我国道路交通安全的现状及其对策[J].中国安全科学学报,2002(6).
[47]许洪国,施树明,李世武.交通安全技术的范围与发展趋势[J].中国安全科学学报,1999(1).
[48]Karl Kim,南颖.交通安全地理信息系统的开发[J].延边大学学报,1997 (2).
[49]李峰(编译).智能交通系统在国外的发展趋势[J].国外公路,1999(1).
[2]预防道路交通伤--世界报告(概要)[C].世界卫生组织(日内瓦),2004.
[3]Estimating global road fatalities,http://www.factbook.net/EGRF_Introduction.htm
[4]《公路交通安全应用技术研究》项目概况. http://www.recchina.com/west/view_jieshao.php?id=1.
[5]叶春生.高速公路被动安全系统的研究.西安公路交通大学硕士学位论文.
[6]刘公明.道路交通事故预防[M].吉林人民出版社,2001.
[7]财团法人高速道路调查会.世界の高速公路,1999.
[8]White A. S, Often A. S. Ro-Ro Passenger Ferry Risk Analysis. Lloyd’s Register, Safety Technology Department Technical Report STD 88/18,1988.
[9]船舶交通安全指数法有关文件、实施大纲和程序使用说明书.1996.
[10]MAIB Annul Report 2001. http://www.maib.dft.gov.uk/ar2001/03.htm.
[11]TSB-Marine Occurrence Statistics. http://www.tsb.gc.ca.
[12] MASA 12th Annul Report 2001-2002. http://www.amsa.gov.au/amsa/pub/anrep.htm.
[13]Inozu B , Karaszewski Z , Schaedel P. The SOCP’s RAM database/SHIPNET:a Cross Functional Network for Ship Life Cycle Cost and Safety Decision Support. ICMES 96, 1996:111-121.
[14]Information and Data Systems, Marine Safety Manual Vol-1 Ch-12. http://www. uscg. Mil.
[15]Carlton J. S. Condition Monitoring of Marine Machinery-Recent Research and Operational Experience. Transactions of Lloyd’sRegister Technical Association Session 1994-1995.
[16]Dowe Safetec Ltd. Development of UKCS Vessel Traffic Database for DOT/UKOOA/HSE. Report No: DST-95-CR-110-02, 1996.
[17]许洪国等.交通事故分析与处理[M].人民交通出版社,2003.1:12-16.
[18]王焕德,段里仁等.道路交通事故概论[M].中国人民公安大学出版社,1997.8:7-8.
[19]《道路交通事故处理》编写组.道路交通事故处理[M].群众出版社,1991.8:12-14,324.
[20]Robb W. Risk-based Technology Methodology for the Safety Assessment of Marine Compressed Natural Gas Fuel Systems[C]. The sth ICMES/SNAME New Year Metropolitan Section Sympsium,2000.
[21]汪元辉.安全系统工程[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1999:118.
[22]Gray A Davis.Method for Estimating Effect of Traffic Volume and Speed on Pedestrian Safety for Residential Streets [J].Transportation Research Record,1998,1636.
[23]张苏.中国交通冲突技术[M].西南交通大学出版社,1998.
[24]李政,严宝杰.道路交通安全评价研究.长安大学硕士研究生论文,2001.6.
[25]姜文龙.山区公路事故多发点防治的研究[D].长春:吉林工业大学学报,1999.
[26]朱中,李淑娟.道路交通安全多层次灰关系综合评价[J].交通与计算机,1998(1).
[27]罗积玉,邢英.经济统计分析方法及预测[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1985.
[28]路峰,姜文龙.公路危险点鉴别技术研究报告[R].北京:中国人民公安大学学报,2001.
[29]克列斯特·海顿著,张苏译.交通冲突技术[M].西南交通大学出版社,1994.
[30]邓泽英.美国公路交通安全的新趋势[J].国外公路,2002(1).
[31]永泰.高速公路交通事故成因[J].交通与运输,2002.
[32]吴均.浅析高速公路交通安全影响因素及对策[J].科技资讯,2006(9).
[33]刘芳.议道路线形对行车安全的影响[J].广西交通科技,(20)3.
[34]夏万军,郭亮.高速公路交通事故成因分析和预防对策[J].交通管理研究,2001(6).
[35]许树伯.层次分析法[M].天津大学出版社,1998.
[36]姚敏,张森. 模糊一致矩阵及其在决策分析中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998(5).
[37]张吉军.模糊层次分析法[J].模糊系统与数学,2000(6).
[38]陈继光.公路路线多方案评价中的模糊一致矩阵方法[J].公路交通科技,2002(10).
[39]攀治平,姜艳萍.模糊判断矩阵的一致性及其性质[J].控制与决策,2001.
[40]黄健元.模糊一致矩阵在多层次、多因素决策方案优选中的应用[J].河海大学学报,1999(27)5.
[41]邱东.多指标综合评价方法的系统分析[M].北京:科学出版社,1999:130～131.
[42]The C1assNK Condition Assessment Program (CAP). http://www.classnk. Org.
[43]魏毅强,刘进生,王绪柱.不确定形 AHP 中判断矩阵的一致性概念及权重[J].系统工程理论与实践,1994,14(4).
[44]罗石贵,周伟.道路交通事故多发点鉴定方法探讨[J].西安公路交通大学学报,1999(19)1.
[45]过秀成.道路交通安全学[M].东南大学出版社,2001.
[46]陈照章,成立,朱湘临.我国道路交通安全的现状及其对策[J].中国安全科学学报,2002(6).
[47]许洪国,施树明,李世武.交通安全技术的范围与发展趋势[J].中国安全科学学报,1999(1).
[48]Karl Kim,南颖.交通安全地理信息系统的开发[J].延边大学学报,1997 (2).
[49]李峰(编译).智能交通系统在国外的发展趋势[J].国外公路,1999(1).