虚拟水与我国粮食贸易结构优化研究
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摘要
水资源是一种重要的自然和经济资源,一个国家水资源环境的承载力、水资源利用效率的高低和供需是否平衡影响着这个国家的经济发展和社会稳定。
传统上解决水资源短缺问题通常是借助于工程、技术等手段,然而运用经济、管理和制度手段也能在一定程度上缓解水资源危机问题。虚拟水概念的产生,对提高全球水资源配置的效率发挥了重要作用。
本文利用联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐的CROPWAT8.0模型,结合CLIMWAT农作物和气象数据库以及我国的实际相关数据,对我国粮食主产区的主要粮食产品的虚拟水含量、粮食虚拟水贸易量进行了量化,系统分析了我国当前的粮食贸易结构。
研究结果表明:
第一,从虚拟水的角度分析,不同粮食产品在生产过程中的耗水量不同,有水密集型产品和水稀缺型产品之分,进口水密集型产品、出口水稀缺型产品可以增加虚拟水的进口,达到节省水资源的目的。目前我国的粮食产品贸易结构基本上符合这一评价标准,但仍有进一步调整的空间。
第二,根据计算,通过粮食产品对外贸易,我国在2001-2008年间平均每年净进口了463.63亿立方米虚拟水,并且有逐年增长的趋势,表现出我国农业用水对外具有一定的依赖性,并且依赖程度有可能不断提高,我国目前的虚拟水贸易缓解了农业水资源使用压力,但我国水资源严重匮乏,仍需要进一步扩大虚拟水的流入。
第三,我国粮食虚拟水贸易的进出口结构比较稳定但相对单一,因此在扩大贸易总量的同时,应进一步丰富进出口品种,保障资源安全。
第四,应调整粮食生产区域布局,同时加强国内地区之间的虚拟水贸易,实现区域水资源的可持续利用,以缓解自身水资源的紧缺压力,更好地保证区域内农业生产条件较好地区的粮食生产。
Water is not only basic natural resources but strategic economic resources.A country’s water resources and water environmental carrying capacity,water use,water supply and demand balance is in the relationship to national economic development and social stability.
The traditional solution to water scarcity has always turned to engineering and technical means,while using economic,regulatory and institutional means to resolve the water crisis is also available.The concept of virtual water plays an important role in the efficiency of allocation of global water resources.
This paper used CROPWAT8.0 software,CLIMWAT crop database and meteorological databases that UN Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO) has recommended and Chinese related practical data,then estimated the virtual water content of products and China's grain trade,finally,analysed the structer of the food trade.The results show that:
First,from the perspective of virtual water,the water consumption in the process of production is different for different food products,which are divided into water-intensive products,and water scarcity products.Importing water-intensive products and exporting products of water scarcity can expand the virtual water imports to reach the purpose of saving water resources.At present,China's agricultural trade structure is basically consistent with the evaluation criteria,but there is still room for further adjustments.
Secondly,according to calculations of agricultural trade,China has average annual net imports of 46.363 billion cubic meters of virtual water from 2001 to 2008,and the net import quantity has a increasing trend year by year,showing China's agriculture depends on external water use to some extent,and has a rising trend.The current virtual water trade alleviate pressure in agricultural water use,but there is a serious shortage of water resources in China that still need to further expand the virtual water flows.
Third,China's virtual water trade of grain imports is in a relatively stable but single structure,so while the expansion of trade volume,we should enrich the imported varieties further,to protect of resource security.
Fourth,adjusting regional distribution of grain production,meanwhile strengthening the domestic virtual water trade between regions,to achieve sustainable use of water resources in the region,ease the pressure of its own shortage of water resources and get better conditions for agricultural production within the region to ensure better food production.
传统上解决水资源短缺问题通常是借助于工程、技术等手段,然而运用经济、管理和制度手段也能在一定程度上缓解水资源危机问题。虚拟水概念的产生,对提高全球水资源配置的效率发挥了重要作用。
本文利用联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐的CROPWAT8.0模型,结合CLIMWAT农作物和气象数据库以及我国的实际相关数据,对我国粮食主产区的主要粮食产品的虚拟水含量、粮食虚拟水贸易量进行了量化,系统分析了我国当前的粮食贸易结构。
研究结果表明:
第一,从虚拟水的角度分析,不同粮食产品在生产过程中的耗水量不同,有水密集型产品和水稀缺型产品之分,进口水密集型产品、出口水稀缺型产品可以增加虚拟水的进口,达到节省水资源的目的。目前我国的粮食产品贸易结构基本上符合这一评价标准,但仍有进一步调整的空间。
第二,根据计算,通过粮食产品对外贸易,我国在2001-2008年间平均每年净进口了463.63亿立方米虚拟水,并且有逐年增长的趋势,表现出我国农业用水对外具有一定的依赖性,并且依赖程度有可能不断提高,我国目前的虚拟水贸易缓解了农业水资源使用压力,但我国水资源严重匮乏,仍需要进一步扩大虚拟水的流入。
第三,我国粮食虚拟水贸易的进出口结构比较稳定但相对单一,因此在扩大贸易总量的同时,应进一步丰富进出口品种,保障资源安全。
第四,应调整粮食生产区域布局,同时加强国内地区之间的虚拟水贸易,实现区域水资源的可持续利用,以缓解自身水资源的紧缺压力,更好地保证区域内农业生产条件较好地区的粮食生产。
Water is not only basic natural resources but strategic economic resources.A country’s water resources and water environmental carrying capacity,water use,water supply and demand balance is in the relationship to national economic development and social stability.
The traditional solution to water scarcity has always turned to engineering and technical means,while using economic,regulatory and institutional means to resolve the water crisis is also available.The concept of virtual water plays an important role in the efficiency of allocation of global water resources.
This paper used CROPWAT8.0 software,CLIMWAT crop database and meteorological databases that UN Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO) has recommended and Chinese related practical data,then estimated the virtual water content of products and China's grain trade,finally,analysed the structer of the food trade.The results show that:
First,from the perspective of virtual water,the water consumption in the process of production is different for different food products,which are divided into water-intensive products,and water scarcity products.Importing water-intensive products and exporting products of water scarcity can expand the virtual water imports to reach the purpose of saving water resources.At present,China's agricultural trade structure is basically consistent with the evaluation criteria,but there is still room for further adjustments.
Secondly,according to calculations of agricultural trade,China has average annual net imports of 46.363 billion cubic meters of virtual water from 2001 to 2008,and the net import quantity has a increasing trend year by year,showing China's agriculture depends on external water use to some extent,and has a rising trend.The current virtual water trade alleviate pressure in agricultural water use,but there is a serious shortage of water resources in China that still need to further expand the virtual water flows.
Third,China's virtual water trade of grain imports is in a relatively stable but single structure,so while the expansion of trade volume,we should enrich the imported varieties further,to protect of resource security.
Fourth,adjusting regional distribution of grain production,meanwhile strengthening the domestic virtual water trade between regions,to achieve sustainable use of water resources in the region,ease the pressure of its own shortage of water resources and get better conditions for agricultural production within the region to ensure better food production.
引文
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