东北地区高温干旱对玉米产量影响的情景分析
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摘要
自工业化革命以来，不断加剧的人类活动，导致全球大气中CO2等温室气体浓度持续增加，表现为多数地区气候显著变暖。1951-2009年中国平均温度上升了1.38℃，变暖速率达到0.23℃/10a。东北地区作为粮食主产区，其农作物受极端气候事件影响较大，特别是高温干旱影响农业主体的粮食生产，而玉米是东北地区的主要粮食作物，在农业生产中占有重要地位，因此，未来东北地区高温干旱如何变化及其对玉米生产怎样的影响等问题亟需加强研究。本文采用PRECIS输出较新的SRESA1B情景数据，分析了A1B情景下未来东北地区农作物生育期（5-9月）内高温干旱相对于气候基准时段的变化响应，再利用PRECIS与作物模型CERES-Maize链接，评估了未来高温干旱对东北地区玉米产量的可能影响。现得到主要结论如下：
1．就高温而言，2011-2100年东北地区在农作物生长季的高温呈上升趋势，且各时段的变化逐步增加。在未来的三个时段，高温增加幅度高值区主要位于黑龙江的西部与东北部，低值区主要位于大兴安岭北部与东北东部带状区域；
2．就干旱而言，东北地区未来干旱化呈增加趋势，虽然2050s时段干旱化趋势明显，但是发生干旱严重的时段为2080s时段。未来三个时段发生干旱频率较高的区域主要集中在东北地区的西部，特别是黑龙江的齐齐哈尔与大庆地区、吉林的白城地区以及辽宁的朝阳地区。干旱频率低值中心在未来三个时段都主要集中在吉林东部及辽宁丹东地区；
3．西北区相对东南区的玉米产量变化。正常年，雨养条件下西北区产量高于东南区，四个时段平均偏高8.4个百分点。在灌溉条件下，西北区与东南区的产量差距进一步扩大，四个时段平均提高了8个百分点；干旱年，雨养条件下西北区和东南区的产量较正常年都大幅度减小，且四个时段西北区产量比东南区平均偏小26个百分点。在灌溉条件下，四个时段西北区产量高于东南区，平均偏高8.5个百分点；高温年，雨养条件下西北区和东南区的产量都偏小，且西北区产量明显小于东南区产量。在灌溉条件下，西北区相对东南区产量变化率有所缩小；
4．未来时段相对气候基准时段的产量变化。正常年，雨养和灌溉条件下的西北区均呈增产趋势，未来三个时段在雨养和灌溉条件下平均增产14.4%、9.7%。东南区均呈减产趋势，三个时段在雨养和灌溉条件下平均减产9%、10.4%；干旱年，雨养条件下的西北区和东南区都在增产，未来三个时段西北区平均增产27.3%，东南区平均增产17.1%。灌溉条件下西北区和东南区都在减产，三个时段西北区平均减产15.7%，东南区平均减产8%；高温年，雨养条件下的西北区和东南区均增产，未来三个时段西北区与东南区平均增产均在13%左右。灌溉条件下西北区和东南区均减产，三个时段西北区平均减产4.6%，东南区平均减产6.5%。
Since the industrial revolution, with more human activities, resulting in the increment of greenhousegases’ concentration in atmosphere, especially on the concentration of CO2, and most placespresented significant warming tendency. In China, the annual average temperature had increased by1.38℃from1951to2009, with the rate of0.23℃per10a. As a major grain production region, thecrops in Northeast China always are affected by extreme climate events, especially by heat stress anddrought disasters, while maize as the main grain crop, occupying an important position in agriculturalproduction in Northeast China, therefore, the research of projected future changes of heat stress&drought and their impacts on maize yield in Northeast China need to be strengthened. This paperanalyzed the future changes of heat stress and drought during crop growing season in NortheastChina under SRES A1B scenario, and utilized the link of PRECIS and CERES-Maize to assess thepossible impacts of future heat stress and drought on maize yield.The main conclusions of thisresearch are as follows:
1. In terms of heat stress, it would perform increasing trend in the crop growing season during2011-2100in the Northeast China, and the tendency would gradually increase in2020s,2050s and2080s. In next three periods, the high value areas of increment might focus on the west and northeastin Heilongjiang province,while low value areas of increment might mainly locate at the north inDaxing'anling region and eastern belt areas in Northeast China;
2. In terms of drought, crop growing season over Northeast China would present drought trend in next90years. The drought trend present obviously in2050s, but the drought occurrence show severely in2080s. Future high value of drought frequency regions might concentrate in the west in NortheastChina, particularly in the Qiqihar and Daqing in Heilongjiang, Baicheng in Jilin and Chaoyang inLiaoning. While low value of drought frequency regions might locate at east in Jilin and Dandongregion in Liaoning;
3. In terms of yield change of NW areas VS SE areas. Normal years, yield in NW areas under rainfedcondition might be averagely higher8.4percentage than the SE areas in four periods, under irrigation,the yield gap would be further expand, increasing by8percentage averagely. Drought years, yieldsboth in NW areas and SE areas might be less than normal year obviously under rainfed condition, andNW areas might be less26percentage than the SE areas averagely, but under irrigated condition, theyield in NW areas would be higher8percentage than SE areas. Heat stress years, both of NW areasand SE areas’ yields might be low, especially on NW areas’ yield, and the yield gap between NWareas and SE areas would be reduced under irrigated condition;
4. In terms of yield change of future periods VS baseline. Normal years, under rainfed and irrigatedconditions, future yield in NW areas would averagely increase by14.4%and9.7%, while future yieldin SE areas would averagely decrease by9%and10.4%under rainfed and irrigated conditions.Drought years, yields both in NW areas and SE areas might be higher than baseline under rainfedcondition, increasing by27.3%and17.1%individually, but under irrigated condition, yields in NW areas and SE areas might be less15.7%and8%than baseline individually. Heat stress years, both ofNW areas and SE areas’ yields would increase by13%under rainfed condition, however, underirrigated condition, compared with baseline, NW areas’ yields might decrease by4.6%averagely andSE areas’ yields might decrease by6.5%averagely in future.
1．就高温而言，2011-2100年东北地区在农作物生长季的高温呈上升趋势，且各时段的变化逐步增加。在未来的三个时段，高温增加幅度高值区主要位于黑龙江的西部与东北部，低值区主要位于大兴安岭北部与东北东部带状区域；
2．就干旱而言，东北地区未来干旱化呈增加趋势，虽然2050s时段干旱化趋势明显，但是发生干旱严重的时段为2080s时段。未来三个时段发生干旱频率较高的区域主要集中在东北地区的西部，特别是黑龙江的齐齐哈尔与大庆地区、吉林的白城地区以及辽宁的朝阳地区。干旱频率低值中心在未来三个时段都主要集中在吉林东部及辽宁丹东地区；
3．西北区相对东南区的玉米产量变化。正常年，雨养条件下西北区产量高于东南区，四个时段平均偏高8.4个百分点。在灌溉条件下，西北区与东南区的产量差距进一步扩大，四个时段平均提高了8个百分点；干旱年，雨养条件下西北区和东南区的产量较正常年都大幅度减小，且四个时段西北区产量比东南区平均偏小26个百分点。在灌溉条件下，四个时段西北区产量高于东南区，平均偏高8.5个百分点；高温年，雨养条件下西北区和东南区的产量都偏小，且西北区产量明显小于东南区产量。在灌溉条件下，西北区相对东南区产量变化率有所缩小；
4．未来时段相对气候基准时段的产量变化。正常年，雨养和灌溉条件下的西北区均呈增产趋势，未来三个时段在雨养和灌溉条件下平均增产14.4%、9.7%。东南区均呈减产趋势，三个时段在雨养和灌溉条件下平均减产9%、10.4%；干旱年，雨养条件下的西北区和东南区都在增产，未来三个时段西北区平均增产27.3%，东南区平均增产17.1%。灌溉条件下西北区和东南区都在减产，三个时段西北区平均减产15.7%，东南区平均减产8%；高温年，雨养条件下的西北区和东南区均增产，未来三个时段西北区与东南区平均增产均在13%左右。灌溉条件下西北区和东南区均减产，三个时段西北区平均减产4.6%，东南区平均减产6.5%。
Since the industrial revolution, with more human activities, resulting in the increment of greenhousegases’ concentration in atmosphere, especially on the concentration of CO2, and most placespresented significant warming tendency. In China, the annual average temperature had increased by1.38℃from1951to2009, with the rate of0.23℃per10a. As a major grain production region, thecrops in Northeast China always are affected by extreme climate events, especially by heat stress anddrought disasters, while maize as the main grain crop, occupying an important position in agriculturalproduction in Northeast China, therefore, the research of projected future changes of heat stress&drought and their impacts on maize yield in Northeast China need to be strengthened. This paperanalyzed the future changes of heat stress and drought during crop growing season in NortheastChina under SRES A1B scenario, and utilized the link of PRECIS and CERES-Maize to assess thepossible impacts of future heat stress and drought on maize yield.The main conclusions of thisresearch are as follows:
1. In terms of heat stress, it would perform increasing trend in the crop growing season during2011-2100in the Northeast China, and the tendency would gradually increase in2020s,2050s and2080s. In next three periods, the high value areas of increment might focus on the west and northeastin Heilongjiang province,while low value areas of increment might mainly locate at the north inDaxing'anling region and eastern belt areas in Northeast China;
2. In terms of drought, crop growing season over Northeast China would present drought trend in next90years. The drought trend present obviously in2050s, but the drought occurrence show severely in2080s. Future high value of drought frequency regions might concentrate in the west in NortheastChina, particularly in the Qiqihar and Daqing in Heilongjiang, Baicheng in Jilin and Chaoyang inLiaoning. While low value of drought frequency regions might locate at east in Jilin and Dandongregion in Liaoning;
3. In terms of yield change of NW areas VS SE areas. Normal years, yield in NW areas under rainfedcondition might be averagely higher8.4percentage than the SE areas in four periods, under irrigation,the yield gap would be further expand, increasing by8percentage averagely. Drought years, yieldsboth in NW areas and SE areas might be less than normal year obviously under rainfed condition, andNW areas might be less26percentage than the SE areas averagely, but under irrigated condition, theyield in NW areas would be higher8percentage than SE areas. Heat stress years, both of NW areasand SE areas’ yields might be low, especially on NW areas’ yield, and the yield gap between NWareas and SE areas would be reduced under irrigated condition;
4. In terms of yield change of future periods VS baseline. Normal years, under rainfed and irrigatedconditions, future yield in NW areas would averagely increase by14.4%and9.7%, while future yieldin SE areas would averagely decrease by9%and10.4%under rainfed and irrigated conditions.Drought years, yields both in NW areas and SE areas might be higher than baseline under rainfedcondition, increasing by27.3%and17.1%individually, but under irrigated condition, yields in NW areas and SE areas might be less15.7%and8%than baseline individually. Heat stress years, both ofNW areas and SE areas’ yields would increase by13%under rainfed condition, however, underirrigated condition, compared with baseline, NW areas’ yields might decrease by4.6%averagely andSE areas’ yields might decrease by6.5%averagely in future.
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50.张艳红，马永良，廖树华．CERES-maize模拟模型中品种参数优化方法研究．中国农业大学学报，2004，9（4）：24-29
51.张颖娴，许吟隆．SRES A2、B2情景下宁夏地区日较差、夏季日数及霜冻日数变化的初步分析．中国农业气象，2009，30（4）：471-476
52.张勇．中国区域未来极端气候事件情景分析及其对华北主要农作物生产的影响评估．[博士学位论文]．北京：中国科学院大气物理研究所．2007
53.赵春雨，任国玉，张运福等．近50年东北地区的气候变化事实检测分析．干旱区资源与环境，2009，23(7)：25-30
54.赵俊芳，郭建平，张艳红等．气候变化对农业影响研究综述．中国农业气象，2010，31(2)：200-205
55.赵秀兰．近50年中国东北地区气候变化对农业的影响．东北农业大学学报，2010，41(9)：144-149
56.中国农业科学院主编．中国农业气象学．北京：中国农业出版社，1999
57.中国气象局．GB/T20481-2006气象干旱等级．北京：中国标准出版社，2006
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60. Bell J, Sloan L, Mark A. Regional Changes in Extreme Climatic Events: A Future Climate Scenario.J. Climate.2004,17:81-87
61. Bonsal B R. et al. Characteristics of Daily AND Extreme Temperature over Canada. AmericanMetrological Society.2001.5(14):1959-1976
62. Challinor A J, Ewert F, Arnold S, et al. Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challengesin simulating impacts and informing adaptation. Journal of Experimental Botany,2009,60(10):2775-2789
63. Clark R, Brown S, Murphy J. Modeling northern hemisphere summer heat extreme changes andtheir uncertainties using a physics ensemble of climate sensitivity experiments. J. Climate.2006,19:4418-4435
64. Conde C, Ferrer F, Orozco S. Climate change and climate variability impacts on rainfedagricultural activities and possible adaptation measures, a Mexican case study. Atmosfera,2006,19(3):181-194.
65. Cox P M, Betts R A, Bunton C B, et al. The impact of new land surface physics on the GCMsimulation of climate and climate sensitivity. Clim. Dyn,1999,15:183-203
66. Eastering D, Evans J, Groisman Y, et al. Observed variability and trends in extremes climate events.Bull.Am.Met.Soc.2000,81:417-425
67. Eun-Soon I, Joong-Bae A, Won-Tae K, et al. Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using aone-way double-nested regional model system. Clim. Dyn.,2008,30:239-254
68. Frich P et al. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of thetwentieth century. Clim. Res.2002,19:193-212
69. Fu C B, Wang S Y, Xiong Z, et al. Regional Climate Model Intercomparison project for Asia. Bull.Am. Meteorol. Soc.,2005,86(2):257-266
70. Gao X, Zhao Z, Ding Y, et al. Climate Change due to Greenhouse Effects in China as Simulated bya Regional Climate Model. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2001,18(6):1224-1230
71. Giorgi F, Francisco R. Uncertainties in regional climate change predictions. A regional analysis ofensemble simulations with the HadCM2coupled AOGCM. Clim. Dyn.2000,16:169-182
72. Giorgi F, Marinucci M R, Visconti G. Use of a limited-area model nested in a general circulationmodel for regional climate simulation over Europe. J. Geophys. Res.,1990,95(D11):18413-18432
73. Guo Y, Yu Y, Liu X, et al. Simulation of Climate Change Induced by CO2Increasing for East Asiawith IAP/LASG GOALS. Adv. Atmns.Sci.,2001,18(1):53-66
74. Hennessy K, Suppiah R, Page C. Australian rainfall changes,1910-1995. AustralianMeteorological Magazine.1999,48:1-13
75. Jones R G, Noguer M, Hassell D C, et al. Generating high resolution climate change scenariosusing PRECIS. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK,2004:35
76. Kharin V, Zwiers F. Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with acoupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. J. Climate.2000,13:3760-3788
77. Lin E D, Xiong W, Ju H, et al. Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2fertilization in China. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences,2005,360(1463):2149-2154
78. Martin B. The2003heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swissclimatological data and model simulations. Geophys. Res.Lett.,2004,31: L2202,doi:10.1029/2003GL018857
79. Moberg A, Jones P, Lister D. Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europeanalyzed for the period1901-2000. Journal of Geophysical Research.2006,111:D22106
80. Osborne T M, Lawrence D M, Challinor A J, et al. Development and assessment of a coupledcrop-climate model. Global Change Biology,2007,13(1):169-183
81. Rosenzweig C, Strzepek K M, Major D C, et al. Water resources for agriculture in a changingclimate: international case studies. Global Environmental Change,2004,14(4):345-360
82. Rosenzweig C. Potential CO2induced climate effects on North American wheat producing regions.Climatic Change,1985,7(4):367-389.
83. Schubert M, Perlwitz J, Blender R, et al. North Atlantic cyclones in CO2-induced warm climatesimulations:frequency, intensity, and tracks. Clim. Dyn.1998,14:827-837
84. Sillmann J, Roeckner E. Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate change.Climate Change.2007,86:83-104
85. Smith D.M., S. Cusack, A.W. Colman et al. Improved surface Temperature Prediction for theComing Decade from a Global Climate Model. Science2007.317:796-799
86. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al. Climate change2007: the physical science basis，contribution of working groupⅠto the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel onclimate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2007
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