地震分析预测模型及平台研究与实践
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摘要
自1988年前苏联学者Grony发现地震前在(10.5～12.5μm)热红外增温异常现象后,使利用卫星遥感技术捕获震前热异常信息、预测地震成为可能。本文优选美国国家环境预测中心的多源数据,提出了采用区域差异性混合插值算法思想来实现对数据进行处理,更好地解决了传统卫星热红外观测过程中受云层干扰、无法连续监测地表温度变化的问题,实现了对震前异常增温的有效监测;同时利用天体引潮力周期的计算模型,提取出天体引潮力的周期,解决了在以往研究过程中热红外异常增温多旋回的问题,在此基础上,开发一个地震前的异常增温分析平台,给出了总体开发方案、关键技术以及实现方法。
本分析平台采用Visual C++来进行开发,在GRADS(Grid Analysis and DisplaySystem)环境下对多源数据的格式进行提取,然后按照提取的格式来读取数据,在基于天体引潮力计算模型的前提下,利用提出的区域差异性混合插值算法思想实现了对数据的优化处理,并对所研究地区的地表温度差采用颜色来显示,以颜色的像素值来替换温度值,以达到更直观地观测震前异常温度的效果。
考虑到震前异常增温具有其特定的空间分布特征,地震分析预测模型及平台的开发,实现了经纬线网格的叠加、城市标志位添加,从而实现了对震前异常增温的空间分析,满足了在宏观上监测特定断层活动的需要,并实现在时域上对震前异常增温的监测。
使用本平台来对2006年7月4日河北文安地震和2008年5月12日汶川地震作为实例进行了验证,结果显示:震前异常增温现象明显,且在时域上与天体引潮力变化对应良好,初步研究与探索表明该平台可满足震前异常增温研究的基本需要。
After former Soviet Union scholar -Grony discovered the phenomenon that abnormal thermal infrared increment(10.5～12.5μm) before the earthquake in the year of 1988, it became possible to forecast earthquake with remote sensing satellite technique. Using National Centers for Environmental Prediction's data could eliminate the cloud's influence which results we couldn't observe the temperature's change, and it could observe the abnormal temperature's increment effectively. Combining with the celestial tide-generating force computing model, this paper provides a method to extract the period of the celestial tide-generating force, and develop a analysis platform for observing the change of temperature's abnormal increment, it also provides the development's blue print, key technologies and the method of actualizing.
This platform is developed by visual C++ language. After extracting the data' format with Grads(Grid Analysis and Display System), then read the data according the format we get and display the temperature in the form of color, so we can watch the abnormal temperature increment directly from the pictures.
The abnormal increment of temperature has its own spatial characters, so this platform overlays the grid of longitude and latitude lines on the pictures and add the city, in this form we could realize the spatial analysis of abnormal temperature's increment and satisfy the basical acquirement of observing special faultage's movement.
This platform is used to analysis Wen'an and WenChuan Earthquake, the results are as follows :the abnormal temperature increment is obvious, and it matches with the celestial tide-generating force's change in the time domain. The result shows that the platform can satisfy the research's basical acquirement.
本分析平台采用Visual C++来进行开发,在GRADS(Grid Analysis and DisplaySystem)环境下对多源数据的格式进行提取,然后按照提取的格式来读取数据,在基于天体引潮力计算模型的前提下,利用提出的区域差异性混合插值算法思想实现了对数据的优化处理,并对所研究地区的地表温度差采用颜色来显示,以颜色的像素值来替换温度值,以达到更直观地观测震前异常温度的效果。
考虑到震前异常增温具有其特定的空间分布特征,地震分析预测模型及平台的开发,实现了经纬线网格的叠加、城市标志位添加,从而实现了对震前异常增温的空间分析,满足了在宏观上监测特定断层活动的需要,并实现在时域上对震前异常增温的监测。
使用本平台来对2006年7月4日河北文安地震和2008年5月12日汶川地震作为实例进行了验证,结果显示:震前异常增温现象明显,且在时域上与天体引潮力变化对应良好,初步研究与探索表明该平台可满足震前异常增温研究的基本需要。
After former Soviet Union scholar -Grony discovered the phenomenon that abnormal thermal infrared increment(10.5～12.5μm) before the earthquake in the year of 1988, it became possible to forecast earthquake with remote sensing satellite technique. Using National Centers for Environmental Prediction's data could eliminate the cloud's influence which results we couldn't observe the temperature's change, and it could observe the abnormal temperature's increment effectively. Combining with the celestial tide-generating force computing model, this paper provides a method to extract the period of the celestial tide-generating force, and develop a analysis platform for observing the change of temperature's abnormal increment, it also provides the development's blue print, key technologies and the method of actualizing.
This platform is developed by visual C++ language. After extracting the data' format with Grads(Grid Analysis and Display System), then read the data according the format we get and display the temperature in the form of color, so we can watch the abnormal temperature increment directly from the pictures.
The abnormal increment of temperature has its own spatial characters, so this platform overlays the grid of longitude and latitude lines on the pictures and add the city, in this form we could realize the spatial analysis of abnormal temperature's increment and satisfy the basical acquirement of observing special faultage's movement.
This platform is used to analysis Wen'an and WenChuan Earthquake, the results are as follows :the abnormal temperature increment is obvious, and it matches with the celestial tide-generating force's change in the time domain. The result shows that the platform can satisfy the research's basical acquirement.
引文
[1]Milne,J.Earthquakes and Other Earth Movements,London,p.213,1913.
[2]Gorny V I,et al.The earth outgoing IR radiation as an indicator of seismic activity.Proc.Acad.Sci.USSR,1988,30(1):67-69
[3]Freund,F.Charge generation and propagation in rocks.[J].Geodynamics.2002,33,545-572.
[4]WuLX,CuiCY,GengNG,etal.Remote sensing rock mechanics(RSRM)and associated experimental studies[J].International journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining sciences,2000,37(6):879-888
[5]Tronin,A.,Hayakawa,M.,Molchanov,O.A.Thermal IR satellite data application for earthquake research in Japan and China[J].Geodyn.2002,33,519-534.
[6]V.Tramutoli,etal.Assessing the potential of thermal infrared satellite surveys for monitoring seismically active areas:The case of Kocaeli(I~·zmit) earthquake,August 17,1999[J].Remote Sensing of Environment.2005,96
[7]强祖基,徐秀登,赁常恭.卫星热红外异常--临震前兆[J].科学通报,1990,35(17):1324-1327
[8]强祖基,赁常恭,李玲芝,等.卫星热红外图像亮温异常--短临震兆[J].中国科学:D辑,1998,28(6):564-573
[9]强祖基,杜乐天.地球排气与森林火灾和地震活动[J].地学前缘,2001,8:235-245
[10]刘德富,彭克银,刘维贺等.地震有“热征兆”[J].地震学报,1999,11:652-656
[11]屈春燕,单新建,马瑾.红河断裂高温条带的成因及其与地震活动性的关系探讨[J].地震学报,2006,19(1):1-7
[12]吴立新.遥感岩石力学及其新近进展与未来发展[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2001,20(2):139-146
[13]WU Lixin,LIU Shanjun,WU Yuhua,et al.Precursors for rock fracturing and failure-Part Ⅰ:IRR image abnormalities,Int J Rock Mech Mining Sci,2006,43(3):473-482
[14]WU Lixin,LIU Shanjun,WU Yuhua,et al.Precursors for rock fracturing and failure-Part Ⅱ:IRR T-Curve abnormalities[J].IntJ Rock Mech Mining Sci,2006,43(3):483-493
[15]徐秀登,徐向民,王燥.台湾南投7.6级地震前卫星红外异常[J].地震学报,2000,22(6):666-669
[16]徐秀登,徐向民.地震前红外异常的基本特征与成因机理[J].西北地震学报,2001,23(3):310-312
[17]屈春燕,单新建,马瑾.地震活动热红外异常的影响因素分析[J].地震研究2007,30(2):113-120
[18]马瑾,马少鹏,刘培洵,刘力强.识别断层活动和失稳的热场标志[J]地震地质2008,30(2):363-381
[19]马瑾,单新建.利用遥感技术研究断层现今活动的探索--以玛尼地震前后断层相互作用为例.地震地质,2000,22(3):210-212
[20]Ma Jin,Shan Xinjian.An Attempt to study fault activity using remote sensing technology-a case of the MANI earthquake.[J]Seismology and geology,2000,22(3):210-212
[21]康春丽,刘德富,陈艳,周晓成 长波辐射(OLR)信息预测华北地震的方法研究[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(1):59-63
[22]Tronin A A.Satellite thermal survey:a new tool for the study of seismoactive regions[J].Int.J Remote Sensing,1996,17(8):1439-1455
[23]Tronin A A,Biagi P F,Molehanov O A,et al.Temperature variations related to earthquakes from simultaneous observation at the ground stations and by at satellites in kamehatka area[J].Physies and Chemistry of the Earth,2004,29:501-506
[24]Ouzounov D,Freund F.Mid-infrared emission prior to strong earthquakes analyzed by remote sensing data[J].Advances in Space Research,2004,33:268-273
[25]PULINETS S A,OUZOUNOV D,KARELIN A V,et al.The physical nature of thermal anomalies observed before strong e-arthquakes[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2006,31:143-153
[26]OUZOUNOV D,BRYANT N,LOGAN T,et al.Satellite thermal IR phenomena associated with some of the major earthqua-kes in 1999-2003[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2006,31:154-163
[27]陆远忠等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002.17
[28]邬伦,刘瑜等.地理信息系统--原理方法和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001:15-28
[29]陆守一,唐小明,王国胜.地理信息系统实用教程[M].北京:中国林业出版社,1998:30-37
[30]张超,陈丙咸,邬伦.地理信息系统[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1995
[31]吴信才.地理信息系统原理及方法[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2001
[32]马未宇,徐秀登等.九江地震NCEP异常增温和天体引潮力附加构造应力变化初步研究[J].科学技术与工程,2006,7(6)第13期:1671-1815
[33]朱介寿.地震学中的计算方法[M]:北京:地震出版社,1988:181-189
[34]李新,程国栋,卢玲.空间插值方法比较[J].地球科学进展,2000,15(3):260-265
[35]Price D T,D W McKenney,I A Nalder et al.A comparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate data[J].Agri Forest Meteor,2000,101(2-3):81-94
[36]Jarvis C H,N A Stuart.Comparison among strategies for interpolating maximum and minimum daily air temperatures.Part Ⅱ:The interaction between number of guiding variables and the type of interpolation method[J].J Appl Meteor,2001,40(6):1075-1084
[37]李新,程国栋,卢玲.空间插值方法比较[J].地球科学进展,2000,15(3): 260-265
[38]Price D T,D W McKenney,I A Nalder et al.A comparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate data[J].Agri Forest Meteor,2000,101(2-3):81- 94
[39]邬伦,刘瑜,张晶等.地理信息系统原理方法和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001:184-185.
[40]刘峰.应用Kriging算法实现气象资料空间内插[J].气象科技.2004,32(2):110-115
[41]侯俊杰等.深入浅出MFC[M].武汉,华中科技大学出版社,2001:1-20
[42]LASG.GrADS实用手册[M].北京,中国科学院大气物理研究所,2004:26-40
[2]Gorny V I,et al.The earth outgoing IR radiation as an indicator of seismic activity.Proc.Acad.Sci.USSR,1988,30(1):67-69
[3]Freund,F.Charge generation and propagation in rocks.[J].Geodynamics.2002,33,545-572.
[4]WuLX,CuiCY,GengNG,etal.Remote sensing rock mechanics(RSRM)and associated experimental studies[J].International journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining sciences,2000,37(6):879-888
[5]Tronin,A.,Hayakawa,M.,Molchanov,O.A.Thermal IR satellite data application for earthquake research in Japan and China[J].Geodyn.2002,33,519-534.
[6]V.Tramutoli,etal.Assessing the potential of thermal infrared satellite surveys for monitoring seismically active areas:The case of Kocaeli(I~·zmit) earthquake,August 17,1999[J].Remote Sensing of Environment.2005,96
[7]强祖基,徐秀登,赁常恭.卫星热红外异常--临震前兆[J].科学通报,1990,35(17):1324-1327
[8]强祖基,赁常恭,李玲芝,等.卫星热红外图像亮温异常--短临震兆[J].中国科学:D辑,1998,28(6):564-573
[9]强祖基,杜乐天.地球排气与森林火灾和地震活动[J].地学前缘,2001,8:235-245
[10]刘德富,彭克银,刘维贺等.地震有“热征兆”[J].地震学报,1999,11:652-656
[11]屈春燕,单新建,马瑾.红河断裂高温条带的成因及其与地震活动性的关系探讨[J].地震学报,2006,19(1):1-7
[12]吴立新.遥感岩石力学及其新近进展与未来发展[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2001,20(2):139-146
[13]WU Lixin,LIU Shanjun,WU Yuhua,et al.Precursors for rock fracturing and failure-Part Ⅰ:IRR image abnormalities,Int J Rock Mech Mining Sci,2006,43(3):473-482
[14]WU Lixin,LIU Shanjun,WU Yuhua,et al.Precursors for rock fracturing and failure-Part Ⅱ:IRR T-Curve abnormalities[J].IntJ Rock Mech Mining Sci,2006,43(3):483-493
[15]徐秀登,徐向民,王燥.台湾南投7.6级地震前卫星红外异常[J].地震学报,2000,22(6):666-669
[16]徐秀登,徐向民.地震前红外异常的基本特征与成因机理[J].西北地震学报,2001,23(3):310-312
[17]屈春燕,单新建,马瑾.地震活动热红外异常的影响因素分析[J].地震研究2007,30(2):113-120
[18]马瑾,马少鹏,刘培洵,刘力强.识别断层活动和失稳的热场标志[J]地震地质2008,30(2):363-381
[19]马瑾,单新建.利用遥感技术研究断层现今活动的探索--以玛尼地震前后断层相互作用为例.地震地质,2000,22(3):210-212
[20]Ma Jin,Shan Xinjian.An Attempt to study fault activity using remote sensing technology-a case of the MANI earthquake.[J]Seismology and geology,2000,22(3):210-212
[21]康春丽,刘德富,陈艳,周晓成 长波辐射(OLR)信息预测华北地震的方法研究[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(1):59-63
[22]Tronin A A.Satellite thermal survey:a new tool for the study of seismoactive regions[J].Int.J Remote Sensing,1996,17(8):1439-1455
[23]Tronin A A,Biagi P F,Molehanov O A,et al.Temperature variations related to earthquakes from simultaneous observation at the ground stations and by at satellites in kamehatka area[J].Physies and Chemistry of the Earth,2004,29:501-506
[24]Ouzounov D,Freund F.Mid-infrared emission prior to strong earthquakes analyzed by remote sensing data[J].Advances in Space Research,2004,33:268-273
[25]PULINETS S A,OUZOUNOV D,KARELIN A V,et al.The physical nature of thermal anomalies observed before strong e-arthquakes[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2006,31:143-153
[26]OUZOUNOV D,BRYANT N,LOGAN T,et al.Satellite thermal IR phenomena associated with some of the major earthqua-kes in 1999-2003[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2006,31:154-163
[27]陆远忠等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002.17
[28]邬伦,刘瑜等.地理信息系统--原理方法和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001:15-28
[29]陆守一,唐小明,王国胜.地理信息系统实用教程[M].北京:中国林业出版社,1998:30-37
[30]张超,陈丙咸,邬伦.地理信息系统[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1995
[31]吴信才.地理信息系统原理及方法[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2001
[32]马未宇,徐秀登等.九江地震NCEP异常增温和天体引潮力附加构造应力变化初步研究[J].科学技术与工程,2006,7(6)第13期:1671-1815
[33]朱介寿.地震学中的计算方法[M]:北京:地震出版社,1988:181-189
[34]李新,程国栋,卢玲.空间插值方法比较[J].地球科学进展,2000,15(3):260-265
[35]Price D T,D W McKenney,I A Nalder et al.A comparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate data[J].Agri Forest Meteor,2000,101(2-3):81-94
[36]Jarvis C H,N A Stuart.Comparison among strategies for interpolating maximum and minimum daily air temperatures.Part Ⅱ:The interaction between number of guiding variables and the type of interpolation method[J].J Appl Meteor,2001,40(6):1075-1084
[37]李新,程国栋,卢玲.空间插值方法比较[J].地球科学进展,2000,15(3): 260-265
[38]Price D T,D W McKenney,I A Nalder et al.A comparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate data[J].Agri Forest Meteor,2000,101(2-3):81- 94
[39]邬伦,刘瑜,张晶等.地理信息系统原理方法和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001:184-185.
[40]刘峰.应用Kriging算法实现气象资料空间内插[J].气象科技.2004,32(2):110-115
[41]侯俊杰等.深入浅出MFC[M].武汉,华中科技大学出版社,2001:1-20
[42]LASG.GrADS实用手册[M].北京,中国科学院大气物理研究所,2004:26-40