后发地区战略性新兴产业成长动力机制研究
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摘要
随着当今世界科技创新速度的日益加快，科技成果被广泛应用于社会各个领域，新兴产业不断涌现，对新兴产业的选择已成为世界各国占领国际市场，获取竞争优势的主要手段。作为新兴产业中最具有活力和发展前途的产业，战略性新兴产业对一个国家的经济发展具有重大的引领带动作用，因而受到世界各国的高度重视，并将其作为本国调整产业结构、提高经济增长点的重要产业。新一轮战略性新兴产业之间的竞争趋势已经显现，能否利用本国的优势资源，大力发展战略性新兴产业，抢占新的国际竞争制高点，这是关系到一个国家在较长时期内，社会经济能否可持续发展的问题。所以，对战略性新兴产业的成长与发展问题进行研究具有重要的意义。
2010年10月，我国正式提出大力发展战略性新兴产业，将节能环保产业、新一代信息技术产业、生物产业、高端装备制造业、新能源产业、新材料产业、新能源汽车等七大产业作为现阶段我国战略性新兴产业发展中重点培育和发展的产业，并制定了各重点行业的具体发展目标、发展路线图。我国作为新兴经济体，大力发展战略性新兴产业，不仅有利于加快产业结构调整及经济增长方式转变，还有利于促使经济社会真正走上创新驱动、内生增长、持续发展的轨道。虽然经过近三年的发展，在我国的许多地区，战略性新兴产业的培育和发展已取得了一定的成就，然而，各地区之间发展不平衡的趋势日益凸显，尤其是后发地区，战略性新兴产业发展速度缓慢，严重阻碍了这些地区调整产业结构、转变经济发展方式、缩小地区间经济差距的进程。尽管后发地区已经意识到了战略性新兴产业对其经济发展的辐射带动作用，也制定了相应的发展规划和具体措施，然而，如何持续推动战略性新兴产业快速发展的问题并未被真正解决。
因此，本文以后发地区战略性新兴产业为研究对象，探索其形成的条件、成长的动力来源和动力演化的机理，构建其成长动力机制及保障机制运行的措施，并利用案例对研究结论进行检验，所以研究的内容对后发地区战略性新兴产业持续成长具有重要的现实意义。本文围绕后发地区战略性新兴产业成长动力机制的相关问题展开研究，主要包括以下几个方面：
首先，阐述了选题的背景、研究意义和研究目的，介绍了论文主要研究内容、拟解决的关键问题、研究方法与论文结构、创新点，界定了论文所涉及的理论基础和关键概念，梳理了与论文研究相关的后发优势理论、产业生命周期理论、产业链理论、系统动力学理论，并对国内外关于战略性新兴产业发展、后发地区特点、产业成长的相关研究进行了分析与评述，为论文研究的开展奠定坚实的理论支撑。
其次，对后发地区战略性新兴产业形成的条件与动力源进行了研究，分析了战略性新兴产业形成的一般性机理，阐述了后发地区的经济发展总体特征和后发优势与比较优势，以及后发地区战略性新兴产业形成的条件、动力源，分析得出其成长动力推进主体是由政府推动力、需求拉动力、企业驱动力和创新带动力构成；然后在分析后发地区战略性新兴产业成长周期规律基础上，设计了成长动力因子专家调查问卷，并获取了成长动力因子的得分，建立了数学模型，并运用主成份分析法计算出产业成长动力因子的权重以及在产业不同时期贡献率的动态变化过程，量化测度战略性新兴产业成长的动力因子，揭示了后发地区战略性新兴产业成长动力演化规律。
再次，通过研究总结了战略性新兴产业成长动力四种典型模式及后发地区战略性新兴产业在不同发展阶段的成长动力模式，构建设计了后发地区战略性新兴产业成长动力系统及五大动力运行机制，即：以政府推动力为主导的产业成长启动机制、需求拉动力为主导的产业成长放大机制、企业驱动力为主导的产业成长拓展机制、创新带动力为主导的产业成长扩散机制和多种动力相互融合的产业成长联动机制，同时制定了保障动力机制运行的具体措施。
最后，以吉林省新能源汽车产业为案例，通过研究吉林省新能源汽车产业成长概况以及成长优势，确定了吉林省新能源汽车产业成长的动力源及动力因子，并运用定量分析法分析了吉林省新能源汽车产业成长动力因子的贡献，提出了吉林省新能源汽车产业的成长模式，并通过对其成长动力要素、动力机制的分析，得出与前文相符的结论，同时，针对影响其成长存在的问题，提出了有利于吉林省新能源汽车产业成长的对策建议。
As technological innovation is developing rapidly across the world, scientific andtechnological achievements are widely applied to all fields. New industries keep emergingand consequently the choice of new industries has become the main means for all countriesto occupy international market and gain competitive edge. As the most dynamic and mostpromising new industry, strategic emerging industries (SEI) can play an important leadingrole in a country’s economic development and thus all countries value them highly andattach great importance to them in restructuring industries and choosing economic growthpoint. The competition among various SEI is already visible and whether a country canutilize its superior resources to fully develop SEI and seize the commanding height ofinternational competition has become an issue that determines the success of a country’slong-tern sustainable economic development. Therefore, it’s of great strategic significance tostudy the growth and development of SEI.
In October2010, the government officially declared to boost SEI and decided tosupport and develop in particular energy saving and environmental protection industry，newinformation technology industry, bioindustry, advanced equipment manufacturing industry,new energy industry, new material industry, new energy automobile industry and set specificgoals and development route for each of them. To boost SEI in China, which is an emergingeconomy, can not only fasten industrial restructuring and the transformation of economicdevelopment mode but also help economic society get on an innovation driven, endogenousgrowth and sustainable development track. In recent three years, many areas and regionshave made certain achievement in cultivating and developing SEI. However, the unevendevelopment among different areas has become more and more prominent. Especially inlate-developing areas, the slow development of SEI has hampered the progress of industrialrestructuring, transformation of economic development mode and the narrowing of economic gap between regions. Although late-developing areas have realized the importanceof SEI in leading the whole economic development and have made related programs andspecific measures, the problem of how to advance sustainable development of SEI hasn’tbeen fully solved.
Therefore, this paper has SEI in late-developing areas as the research subject, exploresthe conditions for its formation, sources for its growth momentum and its evolutionmechanism and works out dynamic mechanism for its growth and measures to guarantee thefunctioning of the mechanism. It also uses case analysis to test the research findings andtherefore it’s of great practical significance to the sustainable development of SEI inlate-developing areas. The paper makes research on the issues related to the growthmomentum mechanism of SEI in late-developing areas and mainly covers the followingaspects:
Firstly, the paper explains the background, significance and goal of this research andalso introduces the main content, key issues to be solved, methodology and structure of thepaper besides defining the key concepts and theoretical basis of the paper. It on one handcombs the theories involved in the study which are Late-Developing Advantage Theory,Industry Life Cycle, Industry Chain Theory and System Dynamics and on the other handanalyzes and reviews the researches home and abroad related to the development of SEI,traits of late-developing areas and industrial growth which lays a solid theoretical foundationfor the development of the paper.
Secondly, the paper researches the conditions for the formation of SEI and its powersource. It analyzes the general mechanism in the formation of SEI and illustrates the generalcharacteristics of economic development in late-developing areas and its late-developingadvantages and comparative advantages. It also analyzes the conditions for the formation ofSEI and its power source and concludes the factors to promote its growth momentum: theimpetus given by government, motivation by need, driving force by enterprises and leadingpower by innovation. Then on the basis of the analysis of the change pattern of growth cycleof SEI in late-developing areas, the paper designs an expert questionnaire on these factors,gets the corresponding scores and uses Principal Components Analysis to calculate the weight of these factors and the dynamic change of their contribution in different stages ofenterprises development. The quantitative measure of the factors to promote the growthmomentum of SEI reveals the evolution pattern of growth momentum of SEI inlate-developing areas.
Thirdly the paper concludes four typical models of SEI growth momentum and themodels of SEI growth momentum in late-developing areas in different stages of itsdevelopment. It designs and models the growth momentum system of SEI in late-developingareas and the five operating mechanisms: the initiating mechanism with government as themain impetus, the amplification mechanism with need as the motivating power, theexpansion mechanism with enterprises as the driving force, the proliferation mechanism withinnovation as the leading power and a linkage mechanism that combines different factors. Italso works out the specific measures to guarantee its functioning.
At last the paper makes a case study of the new energy automobile industry of JilinProvince. It first makes a general introduction to the development of the new energyautomobile industry of Jilin Province and analyzes its advantageous factors. The paper alsodetermines the power source and the factors that improve the growth momentum of theindustry, analyzes quantitatively the contribution of these factors and puts forward thedeveloping model of the new energy automobile industry of Jilin Province. Through theanalysis of the factors that improve the growth momentum and the dynamic mechanism ofthe industry, the paper gets the conclusion that corresponds to the conclusion stated above. Itfurther proposes countermeasures and suggestions for the development of the industry tosolve the problems in its dynamic mechanism.
2010年10月，我国正式提出大力发展战略性新兴产业，将节能环保产业、新一代信息技术产业、生物产业、高端装备制造业、新能源产业、新材料产业、新能源汽车等七大产业作为现阶段我国战略性新兴产业发展中重点培育和发展的产业，并制定了各重点行业的具体发展目标、发展路线图。我国作为新兴经济体，大力发展战略性新兴产业，不仅有利于加快产业结构调整及经济增长方式转变，还有利于促使经济社会真正走上创新驱动、内生增长、持续发展的轨道。虽然经过近三年的发展，在我国的许多地区，战略性新兴产业的培育和发展已取得了一定的成就，然而，各地区之间发展不平衡的趋势日益凸显，尤其是后发地区，战略性新兴产业发展速度缓慢，严重阻碍了这些地区调整产业结构、转变经济发展方式、缩小地区间经济差距的进程。尽管后发地区已经意识到了战略性新兴产业对其经济发展的辐射带动作用，也制定了相应的发展规划和具体措施，然而，如何持续推动战略性新兴产业快速发展的问题并未被真正解决。
因此，本文以后发地区战略性新兴产业为研究对象，探索其形成的条件、成长的动力来源和动力演化的机理，构建其成长动力机制及保障机制运行的措施，并利用案例对研究结论进行检验，所以研究的内容对后发地区战略性新兴产业持续成长具有重要的现实意义。本文围绕后发地区战略性新兴产业成长动力机制的相关问题展开研究，主要包括以下几个方面：
首先，阐述了选题的背景、研究意义和研究目的，介绍了论文主要研究内容、拟解决的关键问题、研究方法与论文结构、创新点，界定了论文所涉及的理论基础和关键概念，梳理了与论文研究相关的后发优势理论、产业生命周期理论、产业链理论、系统动力学理论，并对国内外关于战略性新兴产业发展、后发地区特点、产业成长的相关研究进行了分析与评述，为论文研究的开展奠定坚实的理论支撑。
其次，对后发地区战略性新兴产业形成的条件与动力源进行了研究，分析了战略性新兴产业形成的一般性机理，阐述了后发地区的经济发展总体特征和后发优势与比较优势，以及后发地区战略性新兴产业形成的条件、动力源，分析得出其成长动力推进主体是由政府推动力、需求拉动力、企业驱动力和创新带动力构成；然后在分析后发地区战略性新兴产业成长周期规律基础上，设计了成长动力因子专家调查问卷，并获取了成长动力因子的得分，建立了数学模型，并运用主成份分析法计算出产业成长动力因子的权重以及在产业不同时期贡献率的动态变化过程，量化测度战略性新兴产业成长的动力因子，揭示了后发地区战略性新兴产业成长动力演化规律。
再次，通过研究总结了战略性新兴产业成长动力四种典型模式及后发地区战略性新兴产业在不同发展阶段的成长动力模式，构建设计了后发地区战略性新兴产业成长动力系统及五大动力运行机制，即：以政府推动力为主导的产业成长启动机制、需求拉动力为主导的产业成长放大机制、企业驱动力为主导的产业成长拓展机制、创新带动力为主导的产业成长扩散机制和多种动力相互融合的产业成长联动机制，同时制定了保障动力机制运行的具体措施。
最后，以吉林省新能源汽车产业为案例，通过研究吉林省新能源汽车产业成长概况以及成长优势，确定了吉林省新能源汽车产业成长的动力源及动力因子，并运用定量分析法分析了吉林省新能源汽车产业成长动力因子的贡献，提出了吉林省新能源汽车产业的成长模式，并通过对其成长动力要素、动力机制的分析，得出与前文相符的结论，同时，针对影响其成长存在的问题，提出了有利于吉林省新能源汽车产业成长的对策建议。
As technological innovation is developing rapidly across the world, scientific andtechnological achievements are widely applied to all fields. New industries keep emergingand consequently the choice of new industries has become the main means for all countriesto occupy international market and gain competitive edge. As the most dynamic and mostpromising new industry, strategic emerging industries (SEI) can play an important leadingrole in a country’s economic development and thus all countries value them highly andattach great importance to them in restructuring industries and choosing economic growthpoint. The competition among various SEI is already visible and whether a country canutilize its superior resources to fully develop SEI and seize the commanding height ofinternational competition has become an issue that determines the success of a country’slong-tern sustainable economic development. Therefore, it’s of great strategic significance tostudy the growth and development of SEI.
In October2010, the government officially declared to boost SEI and decided tosupport and develop in particular energy saving and environmental protection industry，newinformation technology industry, bioindustry, advanced equipment manufacturing industry,new energy industry, new material industry, new energy automobile industry and set specificgoals and development route for each of them. To boost SEI in China, which is an emergingeconomy, can not only fasten industrial restructuring and the transformation of economicdevelopment mode but also help economic society get on an innovation driven, endogenousgrowth and sustainable development track. In recent three years, many areas and regionshave made certain achievement in cultivating and developing SEI. However, the unevendevelopment among different areas has become more and more prominent. Especially inlate-developing areas, the slow development of SEI has hampered the progress of industrialrestructuring, transformation of economic development mode and the narrowing of economic gap between regions. Although late-developing areas have realized the importanceof SEI in leading the whole economic development and have made related programs andspecific measures, the problem of how to advance sustainable development of SEI hasn’tbeen fully solved.
Therefore, this paper has SEI in late-developing areas as the research subject, exploresthe conditions for its formation, sources for its growth momentum and its evolutionmechanism and works out dynamic mechanism for its growth and measures to guarantee thefunctioning of the mechanism. It also uses case analysis to test the research findings andtherefore it’s of great practical significance to the sustainable development of SEI inlate-developing areas. The paper makes research on the issues related to the growthmomentum mechanism of SEI in late-developing areas and mainly covers the followingaspects:
Firstly, the paper explains the background, significance and goal of this research andalso introduces the main content, key issues to be solved, methodology and structure of thepaper besides defining the key concepts and theoretical basis of the paper. It on one handcombs the theories involved in the study which are Late-Developing Advantage Theory,Industry Life Cycle, Industry Chain Theory and System Dynamics and on the other handanalyzes and reviews the researches home and abroad related to the development of SEI,traits of late-developing areas and industrial growth which lays a solid theoretical foundationfor the development of the paper.
Secondly, the paper researches the conditions for the formation of SEI and its powersource. It analyzes the general mechanism in the formation of SEI and illustrates the generalcharacteristics of economic development in late-developing areas and its late-developingadvantages and comparative advantages. It also analyzes the conditions for the formation ofSEI and its power source and concludes the factors to promote its growth momentum: theimpetus given by government, motivation by need, driving force by enterprises and leadingpower by innovation. Then on the basis of the analysis of the change pattern of growth cycleof SEI in late-developing areas, the paper designs an expert questionnaire on these factors,gets the corresponding scores and uses Principal Components Analysis to calculate the weight of these factors and the dynamic change of their contribution in different stages ofenterprises development. The quantitative measure of the factors to promote the growthmomentum of SEI reveals the evolution pattern of growth momentum of SEI inlate-developing areas.
Thirdly the paper concludes four typical models of SEI growth momentum and themodels of SEI growth momentum in late-developing areas in different stages of itsdevelopment. It designs and models the growth momentum system of SEI in late-developingareas and the five operating mechanisms: the initiating mechanism with government as themain impetus, the amplification mechanism with need as the motivating power, theexpansion mechanism with enterprises as the driving force, the proliferation mechanism withinnovation as the leading power and a linkage mechanism that combines different factors. Italso works out the specific measures to guarantee its functioning.
At last the paper makes a case study of the new energy automobile industry of JilinProvince. It first makes a general introduction to the development of the new energyautomobile industry of Jilin Province and analyzes its advantageous factors. The paper alsodetermines the power source and the factors that improve the growth momentum of theindustry, analyzes quantitatively the contribution of these factors and puts forward thedeveloping model of the new energy automobile industry of Jilin Province. Through theanalysis of the factors that improve the growth momentum and the dynamic mechanism ofthe industry, the paper gets the conclusion that corresponds to the conclusion stated above. Itfurther proposes countermeasures and suggestions for the development of the industry tosolve the problems in its dynamic mechanism.
引文
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