资本形成、资本效率与经济增长
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摘要
改革开放30多年来,我国经济实现了举世瞩目的高速增长,为全面建成小康社会和实现现代化奠定了坚实的基础。研究表明,在引致经济增长的各种生产要素中,资本投入的增加是拉动我国经济增长的最主要因素。从总体上看,对于一个国家或地区的经济增长而言,资本形成是引擎,资本的效率则是关键。改革开放初期,和绝大多数发展中国家一样,资本稀缺是中国经济增长与发展的最主要障碍,改革开放政策不仅动员了国内储蓄,激活了储蓄转化为投资的资本形成机制,提高了微观层面的资本效率；而且通过廉价的土地供给和优惠的税收政策,吸引外国资本与国内廉价的劳动力资源相结合,促进了外向型经济发展,提高了经济增长的速度。可以说,国内资本的加速形成和国外资本的大规模流入,加上资本效率一定程度的提高,是30多年来我国经济增长的最大动力。从区域角度看,基于不同地区的收入水平、边际储蓄倾向和资本的边际报酬水平的差异,各个地区的资本形成规模与速率不同,并且资本总是从边际报酬较低的地区向着边际报酬较高的地区流动,各地区的资本形成和流动不仅影响了不同地区的资本效率,也造成了不同地区经济发展水平的差异。随着改革开放的进一步深入,与我国地区间经济增长表现出的非均衡性相对应,资本形成、资本效率也表现出非均衡性。因此,分析资本形成、资本效率与经济增长的关系,解释经济增长的资本因素,探寻形成地区经济发展差异的原因,无论在理论上还是在实践上都具有重要意义。
本文以经济增长与经济发展的相关理论为基础,以全国层面及代表典型地区的省级区域经济为研究对象,运用计量经济分析方法,对全国及有关区域资本形成和资本效率的实际状况及其对经济增长的影响进行了实证研究。一方面,在国内外现有理论成果的基础上,通过逻辑推证和机理分析,在理论层面上研究了资本形成、资本效率与经济增长的一般关系；另一方面,采用数理方法和计量方法对我国及典型区域的资本存量进行估算,运用实证分析法对资本形成路径进行分析,以阐明我国资本形成的变化规律及趋势。同时,通过建立计量模型,对资本形成与经济增长、资本效率与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,以揭示资本形成在我国经济增长中的作用并阐明地区经济增长中资本效率的差异。进一步地,本文根据资本形成的一般理论识别出影响资本形成的主要因素,并通过建立计量模型对其进行检验。最后,在实证分析的基础上,提出促进资本有效形成和提高资本效率的措施,为缩小区域经济发展差异和促进经济可持续发展出了若干政策建议。
首先,本文在回顾国内外相关文献的基础上,对资本形成、资本效率和经济增长的理论成果和实证分析文献进行了梳理。国内外研究表明,资本形成对经济增长与发展具有重要的作用。发展中国家普遍面临的是低收入下的贫困的恶性循环,较低的储蓄率和资本形成率导致了较低的经济增长率。进一步研究表明,改革开放以来,导致中国经济持续高速增长的最主要经济变量就是高储蓄率带来的高资本形成率。资本形成是宏观经济增长的最主要动力,而资本形成的差异则是我国经济发展进程中城乡差异、地区差异、产业结构失衡的最主要原因之一。同时,不同地区、不同产业的资本效率也存在着一定的差异,资本效率的差异不仅是不同地区经济发展差异的原因,也是不同地区经济发展差异的结果。
其次,本文在对资本形成、资本效率等概念作出界定基础上,对资本形成、资本效率和经济增长的一般关系进行了理论分析。在现代经济学中,资本一般被区分为物质资本、金融资本和人力资本三种最基本的形式,本文所讨论的资本是指物质资本；资本形成是经济社会体系中资本存量的增加及其生产与获利能力的形成与增长,或者说是储蓄或资本积累中扣除折旧更新后的“净投资”或“净资本形成”；资本效率是指经济系统中作为要素投入的资本要素的使用效率,广义地说,资本效率是资本配置达到帕累托最优状态的资本配置,是一个包括资本产出效率、资本积累效率、资本配置效率和资本周转效率在内的综合效率体系,狭义地说,资本效率就是指资本产出效率,在未作特别说明的情况下,本文所讨论的资本效率是指狭义上的资本效率即资本产出效率。
再次,本文从资本形成的来源、资本形成的机制方面对资本形成路径进行了探析。在此基础上,采用国际上较为通行的资本存量估计方法——永续盘存法,对1978年至2009年全国及不同区域的典型省份(江苏、山东、浙江、广东、湖南、湖北、河南、河北、甘肃、青海、宁夏、云南)的资本存量进行了一个简单的测算,并分别从全国和区域两个角度对全国及12个典型省份的资本存量序列数据进行了分析。进一步地,分别以资本-产出比率、边际资本-产出比率为指标,从时序和区域两个视角对我国的资本形成路径进行了具体分析,总结了我国资本形成的变化规律及趋势。结果发现：与我国东部省份的资本-产出比率相比,西部省份的资本-产出比率较高、波动幅度较大,且西部省份资本增长与经济增长的关系也较为复杂。
随后,选择1979-2009年的全国净资本(资本形成)和国内生产总值(经济增长)的年度数据,对资本形成与经济增长进行了协整关系检验和Granger因果关系检验,然后分别选择基于效益的指标和基于贡献的指标对我国经济增长中的资本效率进行了实证分析。在阐明资本形成、资本效率与经济增长关系基础上,选择包括劳动、资本、人力资本和科技进步四种要素的Cobb-Douglas函数就资本形成对经济增长的作用进行了阐释,采用索洛经济增长理论来描述资本形成和经济增长之间的关系,采用固定效应变系数模型基于我国东、中、西部地区典型省份的面板数据,对区域资本配置效率进行了实证分析。分析结果表明：(1)从资本形成来看,我国东部地区资本形成效果及弹性明显高于西部地区,但是由于国内外经济环境的影响,我国东、中、西部资本形成对经济增长的贡献率都呈现出负相关；(2)从资本效率来看,存在着资本从经济发展水平较低地区向经济发展水平较高地区流动的趋势。
最后,在对资本形成率总体描述基础上,从储蓄供给、投资需求和其他因素三个方面选择了资本形成影响因素的指标：人均总收入、储蓄率、GDP、投资成本系数、第二产业占比、制度变革。随后,建立了资本形成影响因素的计量模型,并分别从全国层次水平和典型区域的省级层面进行实证分析；选取1978-2009年的时间序列数据和省级的面板数据,对影响指标进行了检验。分析结果表明：(1)东部地区资本的边际报酬已呈现相对饱和的状态,而西部地区资本形成率相对较高；(2)影响资本形成的主要因素主要包括储蓄供给角度的经济增长、投资需求角度的储蓄率及第二产业占比；(3)国家的西部大开发战略的实施,为实现西部资源和资本的合理配,提供了有效的政策支持,在一定程度上提高了资本形成率,并优化了资本形成路径。
综上所述,从总体上看,中国已经从改革开放初期的资本短缺而劳动力过剩的状态转变到了资本和劳动力的双重过剩状态；从局部看,则是发达地区的劳动力稀缺与欠发达地区的资本稀缺相并存。这一现象如果得不到有效的解决,那么,不仅会进一步导致高增长下的区域发展失衡,而且在长期内必将制约我国经济的可持续增长。因此,在促进经济发展方式转变的过程中,应当实现两个转变：是由促进总体的资本形成向着促进欠发达地区资本形成的转变,二是由主要追求资本产出效率的提升向着更加重视资本配置效率的优化转变。由此,需要在追求创新驱动、提高资本产出效率的同时,努力改变投融资体制,大力促进区际产业转移。
During the past more than30years of the reform and opening up, China's economic development realized the remarkable growth, and laid solid foundation for the comprehensive well-off society and realizing modernization. Research shows that, capital investment is the main factor in the causes of the production factors to stimulate the economic growth in China. Generally speaking, for a country or region's economic growth is concerned, the capital formation is the engine, and the capital allocation efficiency is the key. At the beginning of the reform and opening-up, as well as most developing countries, capital scarce is the most major obstacle for China's economic growth and development, and the reform&open policy not only mobilized domestic savings and activated the savings into investment capital formation mechanism, improve the microcosmic capital allocation efficiency; but also attracted foreign capital by cheap land supply and preferential taxation policy, and promoted export-oriented economy development and increased the economic growth by the combination of domestic cheap labor resources. So we can say the domestic capital formation and foreign capital inflows, plus the acceleration of large-scale capital allocation efficiency to certain extent, are China's largest driving forces during30years of the economic growth.
From regional perspective, based on the difference of different regions of the income level, marginal propensity and capital marginal payment level, each region has different scale and rate of capital formation, and capital is always flow from marginal lower-income areas to high regional marginal returns areas. The capital formation and flow not only affect capital allocation efficiency of the different areas, but also caused the different level of regional economic development. With the reform and opening of China, the further developments of regional economic growth show unbalance of corresponding capital formation and capital efficiency. Therefore, analysis for the relationship of capital formation, capital efficiency and economic growth, and explain the economic growth of the capital formation factor and explore the difference factors of regional economic development, whether in theory or in practice is very significant.
In this paper, based on the theory of economic growth and economic development, we did an empirical study of the actual status of the national and regional capital formation and capital efficiency and the influence for economic growth using the data of national level and the typical area at the provincial level in regional economy by econometric analysis method. On the one hand, we did the theoretical research on the capital formation, capital efficiency and economic growth of general relationship on the basis of the domestic and existing foreign theory through the logical deduction and mechanism analysis. On the other hand, using the mathematical methods and measurement methods to our country and the typical regional capital stock, we did empirical analysis estimate of the capital formation path, and analyzed the change law of our country's capital formation and trends. At the same time, by establishing econometric model of the capital formation, capital efficiency and economic growth, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between capital formation and economic growth in China and expounds the role of capital allocation efficiency for regional economic growth differences. Further, according to the general theory of capital formation, this paper identified the influence factors of capital formation, and established the measurement model to test it. Finally, some policy suggestions are proposed out for the capital formation and improve effectively capital allocation efficiency measures, so as to narrow the regional economic development differences and promote sustainable development based on empirical analysis.
First of all, based on the related literature of theory and empirical analysis at home and abroad, we defined capital formation, capital efficiency and economic growth. The research shows that economists at home and abroad, agree with the vital role of the capital formation and economic growth. Developing countries is facing low-income under the vicious cycle of poverty, low savings rates and capital formation rate which leads to lower economic growth. Further research shows that, since the reform and opening up, China's continued economic growth mainly based on high savings rate of capital formation rate in the main economic variables. The capital formation is the main power for macro economic growth, and the difference of the capital formation is one of the main reasons for China's economic development process of urban and rural differences, the district difference, and the imbalance of the industrial structure. At the same time, different regions and different industry capital efficiency also have many differences; capital efficiency difference is not only the reasons for economic development in different areas, but also the result of the development difference of the economy.
Second, in this paper the general relationship for capital formation, capital efficiency, and economic growth are analyzed in theory based on the definition of the capital formation, capital efficiency. In modern economics, the capitals generally are divided into three kinds of physical capital, financial capital and human capital, and this paper discussed the capital is refers to the physical capital. The capital formation is the increase of the capital stock and production and profitability of the formation and growth in economic and social system, or savings or capital accumulation to deduct the depreciation updated "net investment" or "net capital formation". Capital efficiency refers to the use efficiency in economic system as the inputs of the capital of the elements, by extension, capital efficiency is the pareto optimality of capital allocation efficiency, including capital output efficiency, capital accumulation efficiency, the capital allocation efficiency and capital flow efficiency of the overall efficiency of the system, and in narrow sense said, capital efficiency is refers to the capital output efficiency, and in this paper we using capital efficiency refers to the capital efficiency in the narrow sense that roe. When it comes to interregional analysis, we also discuss the capital allocation efficiency.
Again, this article analyzed the source of the capital formation, the capital formation mechanism and the capital formation path as well. On this basis, we used the most popular capital stock estimation method, the perpetual inventory approach, did a simple measure for capital stock on1978-2009for the country and in different areas of the typical provinces (jiangsu, shandong, zhejiang, guangdong, hunan, hubei, henan, hebei, gansu, qinghai, ningxia, yunnan), and analyzed the national and regional capital stock sequence data development situation respectively. Then, with indexes of capital-output ratio and capital-marginal output ratio respectively, we analyzed the path of China's capital formation from two perspectives of timing and areas, and summarized the change rule of capital formation and trends. The results found that in eastern provinces with capital-output rate compared the western province, capital-output ratio to be higher, volatility to a larger extent, and the west province capital growth and economic growth also is more complicated.
Then, we choose1979-2009years of the national net capital (the capital formation) and gross domestic product (economic growth) data, makes a co-integration relationship analysis and inspection and Granger causality test by the annual capital formation and economic growth. And then, based on the selection of efficiency index and contribution index we did an analysis of China empirical capital efficiency in the economic growth. In the paper we used the Cobb-Douglas function for the capital formation, capital efficiency and economic growth based on labor, capital, including human capital and technological progress the four elements on the economic growth of the role of the interpretation. Based on the Solow's economic growth theory to describe the relationship of the capital formation and economic growth, we used the fixed effect variable coefficient model based on China's eastern, central and western regions of the typical provinces panel data of regional capital allocation efficiency to carry on the analysis. Conclusion:(1) from the capital formation to see in east China, capital formation and elasticity effect significantly higher than the western areas, but due to the influence of the economic environment at home and abroad, China's eastern, central and western capital contribution of the formation of economic growth are presenting negatively correlated.(2) From the view of capital relocation efficiency, there are capital inverse flow trend of economic development from the low level area to the higher level of economic development.
Finally, on basis of the capital formation rate overall description, we established the measurement model of capital formation affecting factors from savings supply, the investment demand and other factors three choices for capital formation factors of per capita income, savings rate index:, GDP and investment cost coefficient, the second industry accounts for more than, institutional change, and did empirical analysis from the national level and the typical regional level and the provincial level respectively. We select1978-2009years of time series data and provincial panel data, and test the impact of indicators. The empirical analyses have the following conclusion:(1) the eastern areas of the capital has been marginal returns relative saturated state, on the contrary, the western region capital formation rate relatively high.(2) The main factors of influence the capital formation mainly include savings supply of economic growth, investment demand and rate of the savings and the rate of the second industry.(3) The implementation of the western development strategy realized the reasonable allocation of resources and capital, to provide effective policy support, and, to some extent, improve the rate of capital formation, and optimize the capital formation path.
To sum up, generally speaking, China has gone from the beginning of the reform and opening-up capital shortage and transition to the state of labor surplus and capital surplus; developed region's labor scarce and undeveloped region's capital scarce coexist phase is obvious from the view of the partial condition. If this problem cannot be effectively saluted, then, we will not only further lead to high growth of unbalanced district development, and in the long term will restrict our sustainable economic growth. Therefore, during promoting economic development mode change process, we should realize two changes:one is from promoting the overall capital formation to promote the capital formation in less developed areas; the second is to pay more attention to the capital allocation efficiency changes. Thus, we are in need of the pursuit of innovation, improving capital output efficiency at the same time, to change the system of investment, and vigorously promoting interregional industry shift.
本文以经济增长与经济发展的相关理论为基础,以全国层面及代表典型地区的省级区域经济为研究对象,运用计量经济分析方法,对全国及有关区域资本形成和资本效率的实际状况及其对经济增长的影响进行了实证研究。一方面,在国内外现有理论成果的基础上,通过逻辑推证和机理分析,在理论层面上研究了资本形成、资本效率与经济增长的一般关系；另一方面,采用数理方法和计量方法对我国及典型区域的资本存量进行估算,运用实证分析法对资本形成路径进行分析,以阐明我国资本形成的变化规律及趋势。同时,通过建立计量模型,对资本形成与经济增长、资本效率与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,以揭示资本形成在我国经济增长中的作用并阐明地区经济增长中资本效率的差异。进一步地,本文根据资本形成的一般理论识别出影响资本形成的主要因素,并通过建立计量模型对其进行检验。最后,在实证分析的基础上,提出促进资本有效形成和提高资本效率的措施,为缩小区域经济发展差异和促进经济可持续发展出了若干政策建议。
首先,本文在回顾国内外相关文献的基础上,对资本形成、资本效率和经济增长的理论成果和实证分析文献进行了梳理。国内外研究表明,资本形成对经济增长与发展具有重要的作用。发展中国家普遍面临的是低收入下的贫困的恶性循环,较低的储蓄率和资本形成率导致了较低的经济增长率。进一步研究表明,改革开放以来,导致中国经济持续高速增长的最主要经济变量就是高储蓄率带来的高资本形成率。资本形成是宏观经济增长的最主要动力,而资本形成的差异则是我国经济发展进程中城乡差异、地区差异、产业结构失衡的最主要原因之一。同时,不同地区、不同产业的资本效率也存在着一定的差异,资本效率的差异不仅是不同地区经济发展差异的原因,也是不同地区经济发展差异的结果。
其次,本文在对资本形成、资本效率等概念作出界定基础上,对资本形成、资本效率和经济增长的一般关系进行了理论分析。在现代经济学中,资本一般被区分为物质资本、金融资本和人力资本三种最基本的形式,本文所讨论的资本是指物质资本；资本形成是经济社会体系中资本存量的增加及其生产与获利能力的形成与增长,或者说是储蓄或资本积累中扣除折旧更新后的“净投资”或“净资本形成”；资本效率是指经济系统中作为要素投入的资本要素的使用效率,广义地说,资本效率是资本配置达到帕累托最优状态的资本配置,是一个包括资本产出效率、资本积累效率、资本配置效率和资本周转效率在内的综合效率体系,狭义地说,资本效率就是指资本产出效率,在未作特别说明的情况下,本文所讨论的资本效率是指狭义上的资本效率即资本产出效率。
再次,本文从资本形成的来源、资本形成的机制方面对资本形成路径进行了探析。在此基础上,采用国际上较为通行的资本存量估计方法——永续盘存法,对1978年至2009年全国及不同区域的典型省份(江苏、山东、浙江、广东、湖南、湖北、河南、河北、甘肃、青海、宁夏、云南)的资本存量进行了一个简单的测算,并分别从全国和区域两个角度对全国及12个典型省份的资本存量序列数据进行了分析。进一步地,分别以资本-产出比率、边际资本-产出比率为指标,从时序和区域两个视角对我国的资本形成路径进行了具体分析,总结了我国资本形成的变化规律及趋势。结果发现：与我国东部省份的资本-产出比率相比,西部省份的资本-产出比率较高、波动幅度较大,且西部省份资本增长与经济增长的关系也较为复杂。
随后,选择1979-2009年的全国净资本(资本形成)和国内生产总值(经济增长)的年度数据,对资本形成与经济增长进行了协整关系检验和Granger因果关系检验,然后分别选择基于效益的指标和基于贡献的指标对我国经济增长中的资本效率进行了实证分析。在阐明资本形成、资本效率与经济增长关系基础上,选择包括劳动、资本、人力资本和科技进步四种要素的Cobb-Douglas函数就资本形成对经济增长的作用进行了阐释,采用索洛经济增长理论来描述资本形成和经济增长之间的关系,采用固定效应变系数模型基于我国东、中、西部地区典型省份的面板数据,对区域资本配置效率进行了实证分析。分析结果表明：(1)从资本形成来看,我国东部地区资本形成效果及弹性明显高于西部地区,但是由于国内外经济环境的影响,我国东、中、西部资本形成对经济增长的贡献率都呈现出负相关；(2)从资本效率来看,存在着资本从经济发展水平较低地区向经济发展水平较高地区流动的趋势。
最后,在对资本形成率总体描述基础上,从储蓄供给、投资需求和其他因素三个方面选择了资本形成影响因素的指标：人均总收入、储蓄率、GDP、投资成本系数、第二产业占比、制度变革。随后,建立了资本形成影响因素的计量模型,并分别从全国层次水平和典型区域的省级层面进行实证分析；选取1978-2009年的时间序列数据和省级的面板数据,对影响指标进行了检验。分析结果表明：(1)东部地区资本的边际报酬已呈现相对饱和的状态,而西部地区资本形成率相对较高；(2)影响资本形成的主要因素主要包括储蓄供给角度的经济增长、投资需求角度的储蓄率及第二产业占比；(3)国家的西部大开发战略的实施,为实现西部资源和资本的合理配,提供了有效的政策支持,在一定程度上提高了资本形成率,并优化了资本形成路径。
综上所述,从总体上看,中国已经从改革开放初期的资本短缺而劳动力过剩的状态转变到了资本和劳动力的双重过剩状态；从局部看,则是发达地区的劳动力稀缺与欠发达地区的资本稀缺相并存。这一现象如果得不到有效的解决,那么,不仅会进一步导致高增长下的区域发展失衡,而且在长期内必将制约我国经济的可持续增长。因此,在促进经济发展方式转变的过程中,应当实现两个转变：是由促进总体的资本形成向着促进欠发达地区资本形成的转变,二是由主要追求资本产出效率的提升向着更加重视资本配置效率的优化转变。由此,需要在追求创新驱动、提高资本产出效率的同时,努力改变投融资体制,大力促进区际产业转移。
During the past more than30years of the reform and opening up, China's economic development realized the remarkable growth, and laid solid foundation for the comprehensive well-off society and realizing modernization. Research shows that, capital investment is the main factor in the causes of the production factors to stimulate the economic growth in China. Generally speaking, for a country or region's economic growth is concerned, the capital formation is the engine, and the capital allocation efficiency is the key. At the beginning of the reform and opening-up, as well as most developing countries, capital scarce is the most major obstacle for China's economic growth and development, and the reform&open policy not only mobilized domestic savings and activated the savings into investment capital formation mechanism, improve the microcosmic capital allocation efficiency; but also attracted foreign capital by cheap land supply and preferential taxation policy, and promoted export-oriented economy development and increased the economic growth by the combination of domestic cheap labor resources. So we can say the domestic capital formation and foreign capital inflows, plus the acceleration of large-scale capital allocation efficiency to certain extent, are China's largest driving forces during30years of the economic growth.
From regional perspective, based on the difference of different regions of the income level, marginal propensity and capital marginal payment level, each region has different scale and rate of capital formation, and capital is always flow from marginal lower-income areas to high regional marginal returns areas. The capital formation and flow not only affect capital allocation efficiency of the different areas, but also caused the different level of regional economic development. With the reform and opening of China, the further developments of regional economic growth show unbalance of corresponding capital formation and capital efficiency. Therefore, analysis for the relationship of capital formation, capital efficiency and economic growth, and explain the economic growth of the capital formation factor and explore the difference factors of regional economic development, whether in theory or in practice is very significant.
In this paper, based on the theory of economic growth and economic development, we did an empirical study of the actual status of the national and regional capital formation and capital efficiency and the influence for economic growth using the data of national level and the typical area at the provincial level in regional economy by econometric analysis method. On the one hand, we did the theoretical research on the capital formation, capital efficiency and economic growth of general relationship on the basis of the domestic and existing foreign theory through the logical deduction and mechanism analysis. On the other hand, using the mathematical methods and measurement methods to our country and the typical regional capital stock, we did empirical analysis estimate of the capital formation path, and analyzed the change law of our country's capital formation and trends. At the same time, by establishing econometric model of the capital formation, capital efficiency and economic growth, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between capital formation and economic growth in China and expounds the role of capital allocation efficiency for regional economic growth differences. Further, according to the general theory of capital formation, this paper identified the influence factors of capital formation, and established the measurement model to test it. Finally, some policy suggestions are proposed out for the capital formation and improve effectively capital allocation efficiency measures, so as to narrow the regional economic development differences and promote sustainable development based on empirical analysis.
First of all, based on the related literature of theory and empirical analysis at home and abroad, we defined capital formation, capital efficiency and economic growth. The research shows that economists at home and abroad, agree with the vital role of the capital formation and economic growth. Developing countries is facing low-income under the vicious cycle of poverty, low savings rates and capital formation rate which leads to lower economic growth. Further research shows that, since the reform and opening up, China's continued economic growth mainly based on high savings rate of capital formation rate in the main economic variables. The capital formation is the main power for macro economic growth, and the difference of the capital formation is one of the main reasons for China's economic development process of urban and rural differences, the district difference, and the imbalance of the industrial structure. At the same time, different regions and different industry capital efficiency also have many differences; capital efficiency difference is not only the reasons for economic development in different areas, but also the result of the development difference of the economy.
Second, in this paper the general relationship for capital formation, capital efficiency, and economic growth are analyzed in theory based on the definition of the capital formation, capital efficiency. In modern economics, the capitals generally are divided into three kinds of physical capital, financial capital and human capital, and this paper discussed the capital is refers to the physical capital. The capital formation is the increase of the capital stock and production and profitability of the formation and growth in economic and social system, or savings or capital accumulation to deduct the depreciation updated "net investment" or "net capital formation". Capital efficiency refers to the use efficiency in economic system as the inputs of the capital of the elements, by extension, capital efficiency is the pareto optimality of capital allocation efficiency, including capital output efficiency, capital accumulation efficiency, the capital allocation efficiency and capital flow efficiency of the overall efficiency of the system, and in narrow sense said, capital efficiency is refers to the capital output efficiency, and in this paper we using capital efficiency refers to the capital efficiency in the narrow sense that roe. When it comes to interregional analysis, we also discuss the capital allocation efficiency.
Again, this article analyzed the source of the capital formation, the capital formation mechanism and the capital formation path as well. On this basis, we used the most popular capital stock estimation method, the perpetual inventory approach, did a simple measure for capital stock on1978-2009for the country and in different areas of the typical provinces (jiangsu, shandong, zhejiang, guangdong, hunan, hubei, henan, hebei, gansu, qinghai, ningxia, yunnan), and analyzed the national and regional capital stock sequence data development situation respectively. Then, with indexes of capital-output ratio and capital-marginal output ratio respectively, we analyzed the path of China's capital formation from two perspectives of timing and areas, and summarized the change rule of capital formation and trends. The results found that in eastern provinces with capital-output rate compared the western province, capital-output ratio to be higher, volatility to a larger extent, and the west province capital growth and economic growth also is more complicated.
Then, we choose1979-2009years of the national net capital (the capital formation) and gross domestic product (economic growth) data, makes a co-integration relationship analysis and inspection and Granger causality test by the annual capital formation and economic growth. And then, based on the selection of efficiency index and contribution index we did an analysis of China empirical capital efficiency in the economic growth. In the paper we used the Cobb-Douglas function for the capital formation, capital efficiency and economic growth based on labor, capital, including human capital and technological progress the four elements on the economic growth of the role of the interpretation. Based on the Solow's economic growth theory to describe the relationship of the capital formation and economic growth, we used the fixed effect variable coefficient model based on China's eastern, central and western regions of the typical provinces panel data of regional capital allocation efficiency to carry on the analysis. Conclusion:(1) from the capital formation to see in east China, capital formation and elasticity effect significantly higher than the western areas, but due to the influence of the economic environment at home and abroad, China's eastern, central and western capital contribution of the formation of economic growth are presenting negatively correlated.(2) From the view of capital relocation efficiency, there are capital inverse flow trend of economic development from the low level area to the higher level of economic development.
Finally, on basis of the capital formation rate overall description, we established the measurement model of capital formation affecting factors from savings supply, the investment demand and other factors three choices for capital formation factors of per capita income, savings rate index:, GDP and investment cost coefficient, the second industry accounts for more than, institutional change, and did empirical analysis from the national level and the typical regional level and the provincial level respectively. We select1978-2009years of time series data and provincial panel data, and test the impact of indicators. The empirical analyses have the following conclusion:(1) the eastern areas of the capital has been marginal returns relative saturated state, on the contrary, the western region capital formation rate relatively high.(2) The main factors of influence the capital formation mainly include savings supply of economic growth, investment demand and rate of the savings and the rate of the second industry.(3) The implementation of the western development strategy realized the reasonable allocation of resources and capital, to provide effective policy support, and, to some extent, improve the rate of capital formation, and optimize the capital formation path.
To sum up, generally speaking, China has gone from the beginning of the reform and opening-up capital shortage and transition to the state of labor surplus and capital surplus; developed region's labor scarce and undeveloped region's capital scarce coexist phase is obvious from the view of the partial condition. If this problem cannot be effectively saluted, then, we will not only further lead to high growth of unbalanced district development, and in the long term will restrict our sustainable economic growth. Therefore, during promoting economic development mode change process, we should realize two changes:one is from promoting the overall capital formation to promote the capital formation in less developed areas; the second is to pay more attention to the capital allocation efficiency changes. Thus, we are in need of the pursuit of innovation, improving capital output efficiency at the same time, to change the system of investment, and vigorously promoting interregional industry shift.
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