中国金融发展对经济增长影响的统计研究
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摘要
金融与经济增长的关系始终是理论研究和实证分析的热点问题之一。金融作为影响经济增长的重要因素之一,其重要性早已为广大学者所公认。特别是近年来西方学者对金融与经济增长关系的研究不再局限于发达国家,更广泛地推广到了发展中国家。经过不断的实践检验,该理论显现出对发展中国家的经济、金融建设有非常重要的指导作用。因此,将西方日益成熟、完善的理论和我国的实际情况相结合,考察我国金融发展与经济增长的关系,是我国经济建设的迫切需要,同时也为我国金融体系的发展、金融结构的调整提供理论依据。基于此,选择金融发展对经济增长的影响这一课题,并从统计学的视角系统探讨和研究这一问题,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。
论文在梳理、归纳和总结经济增长理论、金融发展理论,及金融发展与经济增长关系的宏观经济理论等理论的基础上,从理论和实证两方面对金融发展与经济增长的关系进行了更为深入的研究分析,并针对我国金融发展现状及存在的问题给出了相应的政策空间。
在理论上,提出了金融发展和经济增长的内在联系及传导路径,在此基础上,依据内生经济增长理论的基本思路,对巴罗(Barro)的生产性政府服务的公共品模型进行了拓展,将金融发展因素引入到模型中,构建了金融发展与经济增长关系的理论分析框架。理论研究结果表明:金融发展对经济的长期稳定增长起到正向的促进作用。金融发展与经济增长关系的理论分析框架,勾画出了金融发展对经济增长的作用路径、政策平台,揭示了金融发展与经济增长的内在关系。
基于金融发展对经济增长作用的传导路径和理论分析框架,探讨了影响经济增长的金融要素,在此基础上,构建了反映各要素的指标体系,并运用计量模型,就全国和区域两个层面对金融发展对经济增长的作用进行实证研究。
在研究全国层面时,将金融发展分为狭义和广义两个方面。狭义的金融发展只考虑金融中介,广义的金融发展不仅仅包括金融中介,也包括证券市场。
在研究狭义的金融发展对经济增长的作用时,选取金融发展度、投资转化率、中长期贷款比重、实际利率,将相关变量进行单位根检验、协整分析、构建向量误差修正模型。实证结果表明:我国的实际人均GDP增量或名义人均GDP增量和金融发展之间均存在长期稳定的均衡增长趋势。从长期来看,金融发展度对人均GDP增量表现出负面的影响,这是因为金融发展度指标是一个体现金融逆效率的相对指标,对此又从规模的视角进行了对照解释。投资转化率与长期人均GDP增量呈现正向的影响,中长期贷款比重对人均GDP增量呈现正向的影响,实际利率对实际人均GDP增量产生负向的影响。但影响程度不同,归其原因是由于价格因素的存在。
在研究广义的金融发展对经济增长的作用时,运用多元线性回归来研究各金融变量对经济增长的影响力度和作用方向。结果表明:所选取的各个指标与经济增长率表现出了较强的相关关系:金融发展度对经济增长产生负向影响,投资转化率和股票市场依存度与经济增长率都是正向的相关关系,实际利率对经济增长产生负向影响,从各个指标对经济增长率的影响力度来看,从大到小依次为股票市场依存度、实际利率、投资转化率和金融发展度。
从研究区域层面看,选用多元线性回归方程,分析了金融发展度、贷款增长率、实际利率对实际人均GDP增长率的作用。研究结果表明:东部地区、中部地区和西部地区,三个解释变量对经济增长的作用方向具有一致性:金融发展度起到了负向作用。影响力度从大到小依次为西部地区、中部地区、东部地区;贷款规模增长率起到了正向的推动作用,作用大小从大到小依次为中部地区、西部地区、东部地区;实际利率对经济增长起到了阻碍作用,影响力度从大到小依次为西部地区、东部地区、中部地区。
依据金融发展与经济增长关系的理论研究结果和实证分析结论,给出金融改革的政策空间。
论文就以下几个方面丰富和拓展了现有相关研究的内容:
(1)对内生经济增长理论中的生产性政府服务的公共品模型进行了拓展,将金融发展引入到了模型中,以实物生产部门的生产函数,金融部门与政府部门效率函数为约束条件,以全社会的消费效用最大化为目的,构建了金融发展与经济增长关系的理论分析框架。
(2)基于经济理论和理论分析框架,探讨了影响经济增长的金融要素,并据此筛选出了反映各要素的指标体系。狭义金融发展指标为:金融发展度、投资转化率、中长期贷款比重、实际利率;广义金融发展指标为:金融发展度、投资转化率、中长期贷款比重、实际利率以及股票市场依存度。
(3)考虑国家货币政策的因素,运用协整分析和向量误差修正模型研究了金融发展与经济增长的长期均衡关系,以及围绕长期均衡进行短期动态调整的稳定均衡关系。在此基础上,分析了金融发展对区域经济增长的影响作用。
(4)以GDP价格指数为被解释变量,选择金融发展指标为解释变量,探讨金融要素对价格的影响程度,并分析了其作用路径。
The relationship between finance and economic increase has always been one of the hot issues in theoretical research and proof analysis. As one of the major factors affecting the economic increase, the significance of finance has been recognized commonly by many scholars. Especially in recent years the western scholars’research on the relationship between finance and economic increase hasn’t been confined to developed countries only, but applied extensively to developing countries. Through continuous practical tests, the theory has shown the important guiding function in constructing economy and finance in developing countries. Therefore, to integrate the western’s more mature theory with our country’s actual situation to investigate the relationship between finance and economic increase in China, is not only the urgent need in our economic construction, but also providing the theoretical basis for the development of our financial system and adjustment of our financial structure. In view of this, there is an important theoretical value and practical significance to choose the subject of the effect of financial development on economic increase and discuss and study the issue from the perspective of statistics.
Based on organizing, inducing and summarizing the economic increase theory, financial development theory as well as the macro-economic theory on the relationship between financial development and economic increase, this thesis makes an in-depth study and analysis on the relationship between financial development and economic increase in terms of theory and practical proof, and puts forwards the corresponding suggestions on policy in light of the current status and existing problems in our financial development.
In theory, it put forwards the internal relationship between financial development and economic increase and their transmitting route. On the basis of this, then it expands Barro’s model of public commodities served by the productive government according to the basic idea of the theory of intrinsic economic increase, incorporates financial development into the model, and constructs the framework of the theoretical analysis of relationship between financial development and economic increase. The theoretical studying result proves that, financial development plays a positive role in promoting economic increase. The theoretical analysis framework of financial development and economic increase outlines the route of function and platform of policy of financial development on economic increase, and reveals the internal relationship between financial development and economic increase.
Based on the transmitting route of financial development on economic increase and its relevant theoretical analysis framework, it discusses the financial factors influencing the economic increase and constructs the index system reflecting various factors accordingly, makes proof study on the function of financial development on economic increase from the national and regional level by applying metrological models.
When studying the national level, it divides the financial development in broad and narrow sense. Financial development in narrow sense only considers the financial intermediaries, whereas financial development in broad sense covers not only the financial intermediaries, but also securities markets.
When analyzing the effect of financial development on economic increase in narrow sense, it chooses such variables as the degree of financial development, the ratio of investment conversion, the percentage of medium and long-term loans and the real interest rate, to test the radical units, analyze on coordinating correction and construct the Vector Error Correction Model. The result of proof shows that, there is a long-term steady balanced increase between the increase of our real GDP per capita or the increase of nominal GDP per capita and financial development. Because the index of degree of financial development is a counter index to show the financial counter efficiency, it makes comparative explanation from the perspective of scales. The ratio of investment conversion will have a positive effect on long-term GDP per capita, the ratio of medium and long-term loans to total loans will have a positive effect on the increase of GDP per capita, the real interest rate will have a negative effect on the real GDP per capita. But the degree of effect varies, owing to the existence of price factors.
When analyzing the effect of financial development on economic increase in broad sense, it applies plural linear regression to study the strength of influence and the direction of function of financial variables on economic increase. The result shows that, there is a stronger correlativity between the selected individual index and the ratio of economic increase. The degree of financial development has a negative effect on economic increase, the ratio of investment conversion and reliance of stock markets have a positive effect on the ratio of economic increase, the real interest rate has a negative effect on economic increase. According to the degree of effect on the ratio of economic increase, the reliance of stock markets comes first, followed by the real interest rate, the ratio of investment conversion and the degree of financial development.
When analyzing the regional level, it chooses the plural linear regressive equation to analyze the effect of the degree of financial development, the ratio of loan increase and the real interest rate on the ratio of real GDP per capita. The studying result shows that, there is a stronger correlativity between the selected index and the ratio of economic increase, i.e. the degree of financial development plays a negative role, with the western region affected most, followed by the middle region and the eastern region; the ratio of loan scale increase plays a positive promoting role, with the middle region promoting most, followed by the western region and the eastern region; the real interest rate plays a role in hindering the economic increase, with the western region influenced most, followed by the eastern region and the middle region.
Based on the result of theoretical analysis and the conclusion of practical proof analysis in the relationship between financial development and economic increase, it puts forward several reasonable suggestions on policy in terms of financial reform.
The thesis enriches and expands the existing relevant research content in terms of the following aspects:
First, it expands the model of public commodities served by the productive government in the theory of intrinsic economic increase, incorporates financial development into the model, and constructs the framework of the theoretical analysis of relationship between financial development and economic increase by subjecting to the production function of practical producing sectors and the efficiency function of financial sectors and governmental sectors, and targeting at the maximum of the whole society’s consuming availability.
Second, according to economic theory and theoretical analysis framework, it discusses the financial factors influencing economic increase, and screens the index system to reflect the various factors. The narrow financial development indexes are the degree of financial development, the ratio of investment conversion, the percentage of medium and long -term loans and real interest rate. The broad financial development indexes are the degree of financial development, the ratio of investment conversion, the percentage of medium and long -term loans , real interest rate and the ratio of equity financing in stock markets to GDP.
Third, it studies the long-term equilibrium between financial development and economic increase, as well as the steady equilibrium by dynamic adjustment in the short term around the long-term equilibrium, by way of applying the coordinating correction analysis and the Vector Error Correction Model. Based on this, it analyzes the influence and function of financial development on regional economic increase.
Fourth, it chooses GDP deflator as the explained variable and the index of financial development as the explaining variable to discuss the degree of effect of financial factors on price and analyzes the function route.
论文在梳理、归纳和总结经济增长理论、金融发展理论,及金融发展与经济增长关系的宏观经济理论等理论的基础上,从理论和实证两方面对金融发展与经济增长的关系进行了更为深入的研究分析,并针对我国金融发展现状及存在的问题给出了相应的政策空间。
在理论上,提出了金融发展和经济增长的内在联系及传导路径,在此基础上,依据内生经济增长理论的基本思路,对巴罗(Barro)的生产性政府服务的公共品模型进行了拓展,将金融发展因素引入到模型中,构建了金融发展与经济增长关系的理论分析框架。理论研究结果表明:金融发展对经济的长期稳定增长起到正向的促进作用。金融发展与经济增长关系的理论分析框架,勾画出了金融发展对经济增长的作用路径、政策平台,揭示了金融发展与经济增长的内在关系。
基于金融发展对经济增长作用的传导路径和理论分析框架,探讨了影响经济增长的金融要素,在此基础上,构建了反映各要素的指标体系,并运用计量模型,就全国和区域两个层面对金融发展对经济增长的作用进行实证研究。
在研究全国层面时,将金融发展分为狭义和广义两个方面。狭义的金融发展只考虑金融中介,广义的金融发展不仅仅包括金融中介,也包括证券市场。
在研究狭义的金融发展对经济增长的作用时,选取金融发展度、投资转化率、中长期贷款比重、实际利率,将相关变量进行单位根检验、协整分析、构建向量误差修正模型。实证结果表明:我国的实际人均GDP增量或名义人均GDP增量和金融发展之间均存在长期稳定的均衡增长趋势。从长期来看,金融发展度对人均GDP增量表现出负面的影响,这是因为金融发展度指标是一个体现金融逆效率的相对指标,对此又从规模的视角进行了对照解释。投资转化率与长期人均GDP增量呈现正向的影响,中长期贷款比重对人均GDP增量呈现正向的影响,实际利率对实际人均GDP增量产生负向的影响。但影响程度不同,归其原因是由于价格因素的存在。
在研究广义的金融发展对经济增长的作用时,运用多元线性回归来研究各金融变量对经济增长的影响力度和作用方向。结果表明:所选取的各个指标与经济增长率表现出了较强的相关关系:金融发展度对经济增长产生负向影响,投资转化率和股票市场依存度与经济增长率都是正向的相关关系,实际利率对经济增长产生负向影响,从各个指标对经济增长率的影响力度来看,从大到小依次为股票市场依存度、实际利率、投资转化率和金融发展度。
从研究区域层面看,选用多元线性回归方程,分析了金融发展度、贷款增长率、实际利率对实际人均GDP增长率的作用。研究结果表明:东部地区、中部地区和西部地区,三个解释变量对经济增长的作用方向具有一致性:金融发展度起到了负向作用。影响力度从大到小依次为西部地区、中部地区、东部地区;贷款规模增长率起到了正向的推动作用,作用大小从大到小依次为中部地区、西部地区、东部地区;实际利率对经济增长起到了阻碍作用,影响力度从大到小依次为西部地区、东部地区、中部地区。
依据金融发展与经济增长关系的理论研究结果和实证分析结论,给出金融改革的政策空间。
论文就以下几个方面丰富和拓展了现有相关研究的内容:
(1)对内生经济增长理论中的生产性政府服务的公共品模型进行了拓展,将金融发展引入到了模型中,以实物生产部门的生产函数,金融部门与政府部门效率函数为约束条件,以全社会的消费效用最大化为目的,构建了金融发展与经济增长关系的理论分析框架。
(2)基于经济理论和理论分析框架,探讨了影响经济增长的金融要素,并据此筛选出了反映各要素的指标体系。狭义金融发展指标为:金融发展度、投资转化率、中长期贷款比重、实际利率;广义金融发展指标为:金融发展度、投资转化率、中长期贷款比重、实际利率以及股票市场依存度。
(3)考虑国家货币政策的因素,运用协整分析和向量误差修正模型研究了金融发展与经济增长的长期均衡关系,以及围绕长期均衡进行短期动态调整的稳定均衡关系。在此基础上,分析了金融发展对区域经济增长的影响作用。
(4)以GDP价格指数为被解释变量,选择金融发展指标为解释变量,探讨金融要素对价格的影响程度,并分析了其作用路径。
The relationship between finance and economic increase has always been one of the hot issues in theoretical research and proof analysis. As one of the major factors affecting the economic increase, the significance of finance has been recognized commonly by many scholars. Especially in recent years the western scholars’research on the relationship between finance and economic increase hasn’t been confined to developed countries only, but applied extensively to developing countries. Through continuous practical tests, the theory has shown the important guiding function in constructing economy and finance in developing countries. Therefore, to integrate the western’s more mature theory with our country’s actual situation to investigate the relationship between finance and economic increase in China, is not only the urgent need in our economic construction, but also providing the theoretical basis for the development of our financial system and adjustment of our financial structure. In view of this, there is an important theoretical value and practical significance to choose the subject of the effect of financial development on economic increase and discuss and study the issue from the perspective of statistics.
Based on organizing, inducing and summarizing the economic increase theory, financial development theory as well as the macro-economic theory on the relationship between financial development and economic increase, this thesis makes an in-depth study and analysis on the relationship between financial development and economic increase in terms of theory and practical proof, and puts forwards the corresponding suggestions on policy in light of the current status and existing problems in our financial development.
In theory, it put forwards the internal relationship between financial development and economic increase and their transmitting route. On the basis of this, then it expands Barro’s model of public commodities served by the productive government according to the basic idea of the theory of intrinsic economic increase, incorporates financial development into the model, and constructs the framework of the theoretical analysis of relationship between financial development and economic increase. The theoretical studying result proves that, financial development plays a positive role in promoting economic increase. The theoretical analysis framework of financial development and economic increase outlines the route of function and platform of policy of financial development on economic increase, and reveals the internal relationship between financial development and economic increase.
Based on the transmitting route of financial development on economic increase and its relevant theoretical analysis framework, it discusses the financial factors influencing the economic increase and constructs the index system reflecting various factors accordingly, makes proof study on the function of financial development on economic increase from the national and regional level by applying metrological models.
When studying the national level, it divides the financial development in broad and narrow sense. Financial development in narrow sense only considers the financial intermediaries, whereas financial development in broad sense covers not only the financial intermediaries, but also securities markets.
When analyzing the effect of financial development on economic increase in narrow sense, it chooses such variables as the degree of financial development, the ratio of investment conversion, the percentage of medium and long-term loans and the real interest rate, to test the radical units, analyze on coordinating correction and construct the Vector Error Correction Model. The result of proof shows that, there is a long-term steady balanced increase between the increase of our real GDP per capita or the increase of nominal GDP per capita and financial development. Because the index of degree of financial development is a counter index to show the financial counter efficiency, it makes comparative explanation from the perspective of scales. The ratio of investment conversion will have a positive effect on long-term GDP per capita, the ratio of medium and long-term loans to total loans will have a positive effect on the increase of GDP per capita, the real interest rate will have a negative effect on the real GDP per capita. But the degree of effect varies, owing to the existence of price factors.
When analyzing the effect of financial development on economic increase in broad sense, it applies plural linear regression to study the strength of influence and the direction of function of financial variables on economic increase. The result shows that, there is a stronger correlativity between the selected individual index and the ratio of economic increase. The degree of financial development has a negative effect on economic increase, the ratio of investment conversion and reliance of stock markets have a positive effect on the ratio of economic increase, the real interest rate has a negative effect on economic increase. According to the degree of effect on the ratio of economic increase, the reliance of stock markets comes first, followed by the real interest rate, the ratio of investment conversion and the degree of financial development.
When analyzing the regional level, it chooses the plural linear regressive equation to analyze the effect of the degree of financial development, the ratio of loan increase and the real interest rate on the ratio of real GDP per capita. The studying result shows that, there is a stronger correlativity between the selected index and the ratio of economic increase, i.e. the degree of financial development plays a negative role, with the western region affected most, followed by the middle region and the eastern region; the ratio of loan scale increase plays a positive promoting role, with the middle region promoting most, followed by the western region and the eastern region; the real interest rate plays a role in hindering the economic increase, with the western region influenced most, followed by the eastern region and the middle region.
Based on the result of theoretical analysis and the conclusion of practical proof analysis in the relationship between financial development and economic increase, it puts forward several reasonable suggestions on policy in terms of financial reform.
The thesis enriches and expands the existing relevant research content in terms of the following aspects:
First, it expands the model of public commodities served by the productive government in the theory of intrinsic economic increase, incorporates financial development into the model, and constructs the framework of the theoretical analysis of relationship between financial development and economic increase by subjecting to the production function of practical producing sectors and the efficiency function of financial sectors and governmental sectors, and targeting at the maximum of the whole society’s consuming availability.
Second, according to economic theory and theoretical analysis framework, it discusses the financial factors influencing economic increase, and screens the index system to reflect the various factors. The narrow financial development indexes are the degree of financial development, the ratio of investment conversion, the percentage of medium and long -term loans and real interest rate. The broad financial development indexes are the degree of financial development, the ratio of investment conversion, the percentage of medium and long -term loans , real interest rate and the ratio of equity financing in stock markets to GDP.
Third, it studies the long-term equilibrium between financial development and economic increase, as well as the steady equilibrium by dynamic adjustment in the short term around the long-term equilibrium, by way of applying the coordinating correction analysis and the Vector Error Correction Model. Based on this, it analyzes the influence and function of financial development on regional economic increase.
Fourth, it chooses GDP deflator as the explained variable and the index of financial development as the explaining variable to discuss the degree of effect of financial factors on price and analyzes the function route.
引文
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[3] Beck,Thorsten, Levine, R.and Norman Loayza,“Finance and the Sources of Growth”[J].Journal of Financial Economics, 2000
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