水资源承载能力基础理论及实证研究
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摘要
水资源承载能力研究国内外处于探索研究阶段,还没有成熟、通用和公认的理论方法可以借鉴。对于资源性缺水地区,水资源是社会经济发展的主要制约因素。为了实现人口、社会经济和生态环境的协调和可持续发展,研究水资源承载能力,在资源承载能力的范围内发展经济,是目前水资源领域的研究热点之一。
本次研究以辽宁省朝阳市区为例,根据水资源条件与开发利用现状,在预测社会经济发展和水资源需求的基础上,采用三种方法分析计算了朝阳市区的水资源承载能力。方法一:采用指标体系评价法,构建基于不同承载水平的水资源承载能力主体、客体、主客体耦合的评价指标体系,通过计算临界年份可承载的人口和GDP,得出水资源对人口、社会经济和生态环境的承载水平,据此判断该地区所处的社会经济发展阶段;方法二:采用水资源配置和承载能力相结合的研究方法。在水资源“三次平衡”配置基础上,构建压力-状态-响应模型,选择超载人口、GDP和生态环境面积作为水资源承载能力的评判指标,通过节水、治污挖潜和外调水等措施增加供水。方法三:建立适合大凌河流域水资源配置模型和技术软件,以流域水资源配置结果为基础,采用压力-状态-响应模型计算水资源承载能力。
根据水资源承载能力相对极限性的特点,提出朝阳市区基于当地水和外调水的推荐承载能力。2010年、2020年和2030年可承载人口分别为56.0万人、49.5万人、58.8万人和114.7万人、85.8万人、92.9万人;可承载GDP总量分别为80.5亿元、176.4亿元、395.2亿元和164.9亿元、305.2亿元和625.3亿元;人均GDP接近现代化的发展水平。综合考虑朝阳市区社会经济发展现状和未来发展趋势,以循环经济的理念,建议从三方面提高水资源承载能力:一是调整产业结构、限制高用水行业的发展和控制经济发展速度;二是提高用水水平和用水效率;三是适当提高当地水的供水规模,扩大外调水规模和提高“中水”回用的规模。
Study on the carrying capacity of water resources domestically and abroad is still in a stage of exploration and need to be improved largely; theoretical methods recognized and widely used can be applied. Especially, in the areas of water scarcity, water resources are the major control parameter for the socio-economic development. In order to achieve the sustainable development and the harmonization among population, socio-economic and ecological environment, the research on the carrying capacity of water resources need to be put in place unquestionable. Currently, the research on how to dig out economical potential in an area within its carrying capacity of water resources becomes a hotspot.
Chaoyang city, Liaoning province, as an example, is taken into this study. According to the water conditions and its utilizations, three methods are used to analyze and calculate its carrying capacity of water resources, based on the prediction of economic development and water demand. Method 1: The evaluation index system. The evaluation index system for the main load-bearing capacity, the object and main-object coupled was built based on different carrying capacities. The water carrying capacity for population, socio-economic development and ecological environment was educed by calculations of population and GDP in critical years. Then, the stage of the socio-economic development was discovered in terms of the calculation of the carrying capacity of water resources. Method 2: combination of the carrying capacity and the allocation of water resources. The model of pressure - state– response was built rooted on Water Configuration of "Three Balances"; the model parameters include overloaded population, GDP and ecological area which are used to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in this area. In addition, some ways are used to increase water supply, such as water reduction and pollution control, groundwater exploration and water transfer inter-regionally. Method 3: Establish models and programmes suitable for Dalinghe’s water resources allocation. In terms of the results of water allocation in this area, its carrying capacity of water resources is calculated using model of pressure - state– response.
In terms of characteristics of relative limits of carrying capacity of water resources, the issues on the carrying capacity recommended of local and external water in Changyang city were put forward. The population carried in 2010, 2020 and 2030 is 560,000, 495,000, 588,000, 1,147,000, 858,000 and 929,000, respectively; correspondingly, GDP is 80.5, 17.64, 39.52, 16.49, 30.52 and 62.53 (unit: billion Yuan). GDP (per capita) is approach to a modernized level. Integrating the status and tendency of socio-economic development in Chaoyang city, three factors built on the concept of circular economy might be considered to enhance its carrying capacity of water resources, as follows: (1) Adjusting the industrial structure, restricting the development of industries with high demanded water and controlling economic development. (2) Enhancing the efficiency of water use. (3)To some extent, enlarging the scale of water supply locally, water transfer inter-regionally and water reuse.
本次研究以辽宁省朝阳市区为例,根据水资源条件与开发利用现状,在预测社会经济发展和水资源需求的基础上,采用三种方法分析计算了朝阳市区的水资源承载能力。方法一:采用指标体系评价法,构建基于不同承载水平的水资源承载能力主体、客体、主客体耦合的评价指标体系,通过计算临界年份可承载的人口和GDP,得出水资源对人口、社会经济和生态环境的承载水平,据此判断该地区所处的社会经济发展阶段;方法二:采用水资源配置和承载能力相结合的研究方法。在水资源“三次平衡”配置基础上,构建压力-状态-响应模型,选择超载人口、GDP和生态环境面积作为水资源承载能力的评判指标,通过节水、治污挖潜和外调水等措施增加供水。方法三:建立适合大凌河流域水资源配置模型和技术软件,以流域水资源配置结果为基础,采用压力-状态-响应模型计算水资源承载能力。
根据水资源承载能力相对极限性的特点,提出朝阳市区基于当地水和外调水的推荐承载能力。2010年、2020年和2030年可承载人口分别为56.0万人、49.5万人、58.8万人和114.7万人、85.8万人、92.9万人;可承载GDP总量分别为80.5亿元、176.4亿元、395.2亿元和164.9亿元、305.2亿元和625.3亿元;人均GDP接近现代化的发展水平。综合考虑朝阳市区社会经济发展现状和未来发展趋势,以循环经济的理念,建议从三方面提高水资源承载能力:一是调整产业结构、限制高用水行业的发展和控制经济发展速度;二是提高用水水平和用水效率;三是适当提高当地水的供水规模,扩大外调水规模和提高“中水”回用的规模。
Study on the carrying capacity of water resources domestically and abroad is still in a stage of exploration and need to be improved largely; theoretical methods recognized and widely used can be applied. Especially, in the areas of water scarcity, water resources are the major control parameter for the socio-economic development. In order to achieve the sustainable development and the harmonization among population, socio-economic and ecological environment, the research on the carrying capacity of water resources need to be put in place unquestionable. Currently, the research on how to dig out economical potential in an area within its carrying capacity of water resources becomes a hotspot.
Chaoyang city, Liaoning province, as an example, is taken into this study. According to the water conditions and its utilizations, three methods are used to analyze and calculate its carrying capacity of water resources, based on the prediction of economic development and water demand. Method 1: The evaluation index system. The evaluation index system for the main load-bearing capacity, the object and main-object coupled was built based on different carrying capacities. The water carrying capacity for population, socio-economic development and ecological environment was educed by calculations of population and GDP in critical years. Then, the stage of the socio-economic development was discovered in terms of the calculation of the carrying capacity of water resources. Method 2: combination of the carrying capacity and the allocation of water resources. The model of pressure - state– response was built rooted on Water Configuration of "Three Balances"; the model parameters include overloaded population, GDP and ecological area which are used to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in this area. In addition, some ways are used to increase water supply, such as water reduction and pollution control, groundwater exploration and water transfer inter-regionally. Method 3: Establish models and programmes suitable for Dalinghe’s water resources allocation. In terms of the results of water allocation in this area, its carrying capacity of water resources is calculated using model of pressure - state– response.
In terms of characteristics of relative limits of carrying capacity of water resources, the issues on the carrying capacity recommended of local and external water in Changyang city were put forward. The population carried in 2010, 2020 and 2030 is 560,000, 495,000, 588,000, 1,147,000, 858,000 and 929,000, respectively; correspondingly, GDP is 80.5, 17.64, 39.52, 16.49, 30.52 and 62.53 (unit: billion Yuan). GDP (per capita) is approach to a modernized level. Integrating the status and tendency of socio-economic development in Chaoyang city, three factors built on the concept of circular economy might be considered to enhance its carrying capacity of water resources, as follows: (1) Adjusting the industrial structure, restricting the development of industries with high demanded water and controlling economic development. (2) Enhancing the efficiency of water use. (3)To some extent, enlarging the scale of water supply locally, water transfer inter-regionally and water reuse.
引文
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