基于动态竞争理论的企业竞争对手研究
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摘要
古今中外,战争胜负的关键都取决于对竞争对手的了解程度。伴随科学技术的迅猛发展和市场竞争的不断加剧,竞争对手之间的战略互动明显加快。与动态竞争思想相比,传统的静态竞争战略只是在静态的条件下根据市场和竞争对手的现状制定竞争战略,而忽略或极少考虑和预测竞争对手可能的反击行为,导致其竞争优势很难保持。动态竞争优势可以定义为企业在不断变化的市场环境中获取竞争优势的能力,而基于动态竞争理论的竞争对手分析则是要获得这种能力所采取的措施之一。本文试图将竞争对手分析置于动态竞争理论中进行讨论,探讨了如何预测动态环境下企业竞争对手行为、动态环境下企业竞争对手行为具有哪些特征和内在规律、并尝试对动态竞争对手辨识和多市场对手动态竞争行为进行实证研究。全文分为引言和5个章节,共六个部分：
引言部分。从我国竞争环境由静态向动态转变的这一现实背景,以及企业与竞争对手之间的交互式、博弈性的动态竞争行为已经成为企业战略构建的必然要求这一理论背景出发,尝试以竞争对手作为切入点,运用博弈论、行为理论、共同进化论等动态竞争研究理论工具,对动态环境下企业竞争对手行为预测做出研究,对动态环境下企业竞争对手的行为理论做出分析,并采取实证分析的方法,对动态竞争对手辨识和动态竞争对手互动行为进行尝试性的研究。并对国内外研究现状进行了综合性介绍。
第1章为相关理论综述。动态竞争理论是近几年兴起的经济学与管理学界最前沿的研究领域,其研究的重点是企业间竞争行为之间的内在规律及其缘由。分析了其发展过程以及与传统静态战略相比所具有的优势,介绍了基于企业竞争行为、基于环境分析以及基于网络组织视角的动态竞争理论,并探讨了动态竞争的基本理论与模型。在竞争对手分析框架阐述中,重点提出了波特竞争对手分析框架及产业分析模型、SWOT分析模型、战略与绩效分析(PIMS分析)以及价值链分析这四种运用较多的模型框架,除此还介绍了基于产品市场共通性与资源类似性指标对竞争对手二维分类的动态竞争对手分析框架。
第2章主要介绍动态环境下企业竞争对手分析的理论与方法。首先对本文所探讨的动态竞争对手和动态竞争行为进行了概念上的界定。在此基础上,提出理解一个特定市场内主导竞争关系的形式对于竞争对手分析的重要性,并介绍了格兰格诱因法、推测变化关系法以及非重叠模型比较法这三种用于确定竞争关系的基本统计方法。在确定竞争关系后,企业管理者通常运用经济学模式、行为学模式以及共同进化论模式对竞争对手的选择和思维方式进行剖析,从而更好的帮助企业管理者预见竞争对手的反应。而对替代产品或服务进行审视则是确定竞争对手领域的关键方法之一,这种审视可以从消费者的角度、供应的角度以及战略集团的角度来开展。通过平衡点战略、后向归纳法、产量博弈、单次与重复博弈等基于博弈的分析方法,能帮助企业更好的预测竞争对手动态行为。
第3章为动态环境下企业竞争对手的行为与策略。在动态竞争条件下,制定动态竞争战略的有效性很大程度上依赖于预测竞争对手的能力,企业可以从已经采取的竞争行为特征、被影响的对手的特征以及行动者的特征来预期竞争对手的反应,这是制定动态竞争战略中的关键一环。企业管理者可以通过竞争态度、程度、速度、领域及武器五个方面来构建竞争对手反应决策模型,同时选择面对竞争对手的反应态度。在面对竞争对手时,企业可以采取先发制人这种最强有力的竞争战略,也可以采取向竞争对手发出信号传递不同的竞争信息策略,除此以外,企业还常常会基于不同的目的采取柔性承诺策略或者刚性承诺策略。
第4章为企业竞争对手辨识实证分析。许多学者已经注意到,在市场领域重叠的情况下里,某些外部因素在决定竞争强度时起到了非常重要的作用。其中一个方面便是企业之间多市场关联在决定竞争强度时所起的影响作用。尝试按照陈明哲教授提出的动态竞争对手分析框架,采用市场共通性和资源类似性两个指标,对中国乘用车企业间的竞争对手的辨识及其竞争行为做出尝试性研究,选择神龙汽车公司作为目标企业,14家乘用车企业作为假定目标对手企业,进行动态竞争对手辨识。通过聚类分析统计方法计算和神龙公司具有市场共通性的企业,通过匹配分析计算和神龙公司具有资源相似性的企业,并将统计结果进行二维分类,从而辨识其动态竞争对手。
第5章为多市场对手动态竞争行为实证分析。在得出动态竞争对手集合的基础上,进一步对竞争对手行为开展实证分析,结合相关研究提出三点假设：多市场接触程度越大,企业间的竞争相似度越小,竞争程度将逐渐减弱；在多市场接触程度较大的情况下,企业资源相似性的增加,企业间的竞争相似度越小,竞争强度将会减弱；第一类竞争对手和目标企业的竞争强度将弱于第二类竞争对手。收集竞争对手企业的相关竞争活动样本,按照内容分析法,分别统计出各企业的不同竞争性行动次数,并探讨内在市场竞争规律。接下来采用距离分析统计方法,通过计算欧几里德距离和]Pearson相关矩阵,计算神龙公司和各企业间竞争行为的不相似度和相似度,并将其和竞争强度联系,判断假设是否成立。
第6章为总结和展望。对全文脉络进行梳理,指出在研究中存在的不足和局限性,在此基础上进行展望。
From ancient times till today, it is universally acknowledged that triumph of the war decisively hinges on how well you know about your opponent. Because of the booming development of science and technology and the increasingly keener market competition, the strategic interaction among competitors has distinctly been accelerated. Unlike dynamic competition theory, it is only under a static condition that the traditional static competition theory works out competition strategy according to the market and the current situation of competitors, rarely taking the opponent's potential counterattack into consideration, which therefore causes the competitive advantage rather difficult to maintain. Dynamic competitive advantage can be defined as enterprise's capability of winning superiority in an ever-changing market environment, and the competitor analysis based on dynamic competition theory is one of the measures we can take to obtain this kind of capability. In what follows, I will try to locate the competitor analysis into dynamic competition theory and discuss how to predict the characters and internal rules that the opponent possesses under a dynamic environment, and attempt to carry out empirical researches on dynamic opponent recognition and competitive behavior of multi-market opponent. This paper has altogether six parts, including introduction and five chapters.
Introduction. Since it is factual that present competitive environment in China has turned from static to dynamic, and that interactive dynamic competitive behavior between enterprise and its opponent has become a necessity for enterprise strategic construction, I, in this paper, choose opponent as my penetration point and apply game theory, behavior theory and mutual evolution theory and other dynamic competitor research tools to predict opponent behavior and analyze the corresponding behavior theory. Furthermore, empirical analysis is used to perform an experimental research on dynamic opponent interaction and recognition. A comprehensive introduction to the relevant research home and abroad is also made in this part of the paper
Chapter 1 lays particular stress on literature review. Regarded as the frontier of economics and management science which springs up in recent years, dynamic competition theory emphasizes the internal rule and the cause of the enterprise competitive behaviors. In this chapter, at first the process of the development of DCT and its advantages compared with traditional static strategy are analyzed. Then DCT separately based on three respects, i.e. enterprise competitive behaviors, environment analysis and network organization is introduced. And the essential theories and patterns of dynamic competition are also discussed. In competitor analysis framework elaboration, I focus on Michael Porter's competitor analysis framework and four frequently used models, namely industrial analysis model, SWOT analysis model, PIMS analysis model and value chain analysis model. Apart from these, a dynamic competitor analysis framework, which categorizes the competitors according to the indices of product market commonality and resource similarity, is introduced at last.
Chapter 2 mainly introduces the theories and methods of enterprise competitor analysis in a dynamic environment. Firstly, I define the dynamic competitor and dynamic competitive behavior discussed in this paper. Secondly, on the basis of the definition, I bring up the significance of understanding the form of the leading competition relationship in a specific market during competition analysis and introduce three basic statistic methods for competition relationship determination.With the relationship determined, the administrator will usually use the economics model, behavioral science model as well as mutual evolutionism model to make a thorough analysis of the choice and thinking pattern of his competitors so that he can better predict their reactions. During this analysis, the study of the substitutive product or service is a significant way of determining competitor's domain, which can be carried out from the respect of consumers, suppliers or strategic groups. Through the analysis methods based on game theory, like balanced point strategy, backward summarization, output game analysis and onetime and repeated game analysis, we can help the enterprise to predict competitor's dynamic behavior with more accuracy and efficiency.
Chapter 3 emphasizes the behavior and strategy of enterprise competitor in a dynamic environment. Under such conditions, the efficiency of dynamic competitive strategy depends to a great extend on competitor ability prediction and it is a key link for the enterprise to predict competitor's reaction through the characters of competitive actions which are already taken, person who takes action and competitors who have been affected. Therefore the administrator is suggested to build a decision-making model of competitor reaction according to competition attitude, extend, speed, domain and weapon, and choose the corresponding attitude at the same time. Face to face with its competitor, the enterprise can either gain the initiative by striking the first blow or send messages carrying different competitive strategies. Besides, flexible and rigid commitment strategy may also be applied for various purposes.
In Chapter 4, an empirical research of the recognition of enterprise dynamic competitor is carried out. Many scholars have noticed that in an overlapping market, certain external factors play an extremely significant role in competitive aggressiveness, one of which is the effect of multi-market relevance among enterprises. In this chapter, applying two indices of market commonality and resource similarity, I try to use the dynamic competitor analysis framework which was put forward by Professor Chen Mingzhe and conduct an experimental research on the competitor recognition and competitive behavior of Chinese automobile companies, to be more specific, Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Company as target enterprise and other 14 automobile companies as hypothetic opponent enterprises. In this phase of research, cluster analysis is applied to calculate the enterprises which share market commonality with Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Company, while matching analysis is used to find out the enterprises which share resource similarity. Then the statistic result is categorized from 2 dimensions to recognize the dynamic competitors.
Chapter 5 demonstrates an empirical research of multi-market dynamic competitive behavior is accomplished. Firstly, on the basis of the set of dynamic opponent, a further empirical analysis of opponent behavior is carried out and three hypotheses are made:the more frequently multi-market contact happens, the less competitive similarity will be, and thus the competitive aggressiveness will gradually reduce; under a relatively high contact frequency, the increase of enterprise resource similarity will reduce the competitive similarity which will result in the decrease of competitive aggressiveness; the competitive aggressiveness of the first type of opponent and the target enterprise will be weaker than the second type of opponent. Secondly, relative activity specimens of opponent enterprise are collected, competitive actions of each opponent are calculated separately with content analysis, and internal market competition rule is discussed. Thirdly, through calculating the Euclidean distance and Pearson correlation coefficient, distance statistics is applied to find out the dissimilarity and similarity of competitive behavior between Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Company and the opponents, which are then related to competitive aggressiveness to judge the validity of the preceding hypotheses.
Chapter 6 is the chapter of conclusion and prospect where the ideas of this paper are clearly and logically presented, the limitation and inadequacy existing in the research is pointed out and a prospect is made accordingly.
引言部分。从我国竞争环境由静态向动态转变的这一现实背景,以及企业与竞争对手之间的交互式、博弈性的动态竞争行为已经成为企业战略构建的必然要求这一理论背景出发,尝试以竞争对手作为切入点,运用博弈论、行为理论、共同进化论等动态竞争研究理论工具,对动态环境下企业竞争对手行为预测做出研究,对动态环境下企业竞争对手的行为理论做出分析,并采取实证分析的方法,对动态竞争对手辨识和动态竞争对手互动行为进行尝试性的研究。并对国内外研究现状进行了综合性介绍。
第1章为相关理论综述。动态竞争理论是近几年兴起的经济学与管理学界最前沿的研究领域,其研究的重点是企业间竞争行为之间的内在规律及其缘由。分析了其发展过程以及与传统静态战略相比所具有的优势,介绍了基于企业竞争行为、基于环境分析以及基于网络组织视角的动态竞争理论,并探讨了动态竞争的基本理论与模型。在竞争对手分析框架阐述中,重点提出了波特竞争对手分析框架及产业分析模型、SWOT分析模型、战略与绩效分析(PIMS分析)以及价值链分析这四种运用较多的模型框架,除此还介绍了基于产品市场共通性与资源类似性指标对竞争对手二维分类的动态竞争对手分析框架。
第2章主要介绍动态环境下企业竞争对手分析的理论与方法。首先对本文所探讨的动态竞争对手和动态竞争行为进行了概念上的界定。在此基础上,提出理解一个特定市场内主导竞争关系的形式对于竞争对手分析的重要性,并介绍了格兰格诱因法、推测变化关系法以及非重叠模型比较法这三种用于确定竞争关系的基本统计方法。在确定竞争关系后,企业管理者通常运用经济学模式、行为学模式以及共同进化论模式对竞争对手的选择和思维方式进行剖析,从而更好的帮助企业管理者预见竞争对手的反应。而对替代产品或服务进行审视则是确定竞争对手领域的关键方法之一,这种审视可以从消费者的角度、供应的角度以及战略集团的角度来开展。通过平衡点战略、后向归纳法、产量博弈、单次与重复博弈等基于博弈的分析方法,能帮助企业更好的预测竞争对手动态行为。
第3章为动态环境下企业竞争对手的行为与策略。在动态竞争条件下,制定动态竞争战略的有效性很大程度上依赖于预测竞争对手的能力,企业可以从已经采取的竞争行为特征、被影响的对手的特征以及行动者的特征来预期竞争对手的反应,这是制定动态竞争战略中的关键一环。企业管理者可以通过竞争态度、程度、速度、领域及武器五个方面来构建竞争对手反应决策模型,同时选择面对竞争对手的反应态度。在面对竞争对手时,企业可以采取先发制人这种最强有力的竞争战略,也可以采取向竞争对手发出信号传递不同的竞争信息策略,除此以外,企业还常常会基于不同的目的采取柔性承诺策略或者刚性承诺策略。
第4章为企业竞争对手辨识实证分析。许多学者已经注意到,在市场领域重叠的情况下里,某些外部因素在决定竞争强度时起到了非常重要的作用。其中一个方面便是企业之间多市场关联在决定竞争强度时所起的影响作用。尝试按照陈明哲教授提出的动态竞争对手分析框架,采用市场共通性和资源类似性两个指标,对中国乘用车企业间的竞争对手的辨识及其竞争行为做出尝试性研究,选择神龙汽车公司作为目标企业,14家乘用车企业作为假定目标对手企业,进行动态竞争对手辨识。通过聚类分析统计方法计算和神龙公司具有市场共通性的企业,通过匹配分析计算和神龙公司具有资源相似性的企业,并将统计结果进行二维分类,从而辨识其动态竞争对手。
第5章为多市场对手动态竞争行为实证分析。在得出动态竞争对手集合的基础上,进一步对竞争对手行为开展实证分析,结合相关研究提出三点假设：多市场接触程度越大,企业间的竞争相似度越小,竞争程度将逐渐减弱；在多市场接触程度较大的情况下,企业资源相似性的增加,企业间的竞争相似度越小,竞争强度将会减弱；第一类竞争对手和目标企业的竞争强度将弱于第二类竞争对手。收集竞争对手企业的相关竞争活动样本,按照内容分析法,分别统计出各企业的不同竞争性行动次数,并探讨内在市场竞争规律。接下来采用距离分析统计方法,通过计算欧几里德距离和]Pearson相关矩阵,计算神龙公司和各企业间竞争行为的不相似度和相似度,并将其和竞争强度联系,判断假设是否成立。
第6章为总结和展望。对全文脉络进行梳理,指出在研究中存在的不足和局限性,在此基础上进行展望。
From ancient times till today, it is universally acknowledged that triumph of the war decisively hinges on how well you know about your opponent. Because of the booming development of science and technology and the increasingly keener market competition, the strategic interaction among competitors has distinctly been accelerated. Unlike dynamic competition theory, it is only under a static condition that the traditional static competition theory works out competition strategy according to the market and the current situation of competitors, rarely taking the opponent's potential counterattack into consideration, which therefore causes the competitive advantage rather difficult to maintain. Dynamic competitive advantage can be defined as enterprise's capability of winning superiority in an ever-changing market environment, and the competitor analysis based on dynamic competition theory is one of the measures we can take to obtain this kind of capability. In what follows, I will try to locate the competitor analysis into dynamic competition theory and discuss how to predict the characters and internal rules that the opponent possesses under a dynamic environment, and attempt to carry out empirical researches on dynamic opponent recognition and competitive behavior of multi-market opponent. This paper has altogether six parts, including introduction and five chapters.
Introduction. Since it is factual that present competitive environment in China has turned from static to dynamic, and that interactive dynamic competitive behavior between enterprise and its opponent has become a necessity for enterprise strategic construction, I, in this paper, choose opponent as my penetration point and apply game theory, behavior theory and mutual evolution theory and other dynamic competitor research tools to predict opponent behavior and analyze the corresponding behavior theory. Furthermore, empirical analysis is used to perform an experimental research on dynamic opponent interaction and recognition. A comprehensive introduction to the relevant research home and abroad is also made in this part of the paper
Chapter 1 lays particular stress on literature review. Regarded as the frontier of economics and management science which springs up in recent years, dynamic competition theory emphasizes the internal rule and the cause of the enterprise competitive behaviors. In this chapter, at first the process of the development of DCT and its advantages compared with traditional static strategy are analyzed. Then DCT separately based on three respects, i.e. enterprise competitive behaviors, environment analysis and network organization is introduced. And the essential theories and patterns of dynamic competition are also discussed. In competitor analysis framework elaboration, I focus on Michael Porter's competitor analysis framework and four frequently used models, namely industrial analysis model, SWOT analysis model, PIMS analysis model and value chain analysis model. Apart from these, a dynamic competitor analysis framework, which categorizes the competitors according to the indices of product market commonality and resource similarity, is introduced at last.
Chapter 2 mainly introduces the theories and methods of enterprise competitor analysis in a dynamic environment. Firstly, I define the dynamic competitor and dynamic competitive behavior discussed in this paper. Secondly, on the basis of the definition, I bring up the significance of understanding the form of the leading competition relationship in a specific market during competition analysis and introduce three basic statistic methods for competition relationship determination.With the relationship determined, the administrator will usually use the economics model, behavioral science model as well as mutual evolutionism model to make a thorough analysis of the choice and thinking pattern of his competitors so that he can better predict their reactions. During this analysis, the study of the substitutive product or service is a significant way of determining competitor's domain, which can be carried out from the respect of consumers, suppliers or strategic groups. Through the analysis methods based on game theory, like balanced point strategy, backward summarization, output game analysis and onetime and repeated game analysis, we can help the enterprise to predict competitor's dynamic behavior with more accuracy and efficiency.
Chapter 3 emphasizes the behavior and strategy of enterprise competitor in a dynamic environment. Under such conditions, the efficiency of dynamic competitive strategy depends to a great extend on competitor ability prediction and it is a key link for the enterprise to predict competitor's reaction through the characters of competitive actions which are already taken, person who takes action and competitors who have been affected. Therefore the administrator is suggested to build a decision-making model of competitor reaction according to competition attitude, extend, speed, domain and weapon, and choose the corresponding attitude at the same time. Face to face with its competitor, the enterprise can either gain the initiative by striking the first blow or send messages carrying different competitive strategies. Besides, flexible and rigid commitment strategy may also be applied for various purposes.
In Chapter 4, an empirical research of the recognition of enterprise dynamic competitor is carried out. Many scholars have noticed that in an overlapping market, certain external factors play an extremely significant role in competitive aggressiveness, one of which is the effect of multi-market relevance among enterprises. In this chapter, applying two indices of market commonality and resource similarity, I try to use the dynamic competitor analysis framework which was put forward by Professor Chen Mingzhe and conduct an experimental research on the competitor recognition and competitive behavior of Chinese automobile companies, to be more specific, Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Company as target enterprise and other 14 automobile companies as hypothetic opponent enterprises. In this phase of research, cluster analysis is applied to calculate the enterprises which share market commonality with Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Company, while matching analysis is used to find out the enterprises which share resource similarity. Then the statistic result is categorized from 2 dimensions to recognize the dynamic competitors.
Chapter 5 demonstrates an empirical research of multi-market dynamic competitive behavior is accomplished. Firstly, on the basis of the set of dynamic opponent, a further empirical analysis of opponent behavior is carried out and three hypotheses are made:the more frequently multi-market contact happens, the less competitive similarity will be, and thus the competitive aggressiveness will gradually reduce; under a relatively high contact frequency, the increase of enterprise resource similarity will reduce the competitive similarity which will result in the decrease of competitive aggressiveness; the competitive aggressiveness of the first type of opponent and the target enterprise will be weaker than the second type of opponent. Secondly, relative activity specimens of opponent enterprise are collected, competitive actions of each opponent are calculated separately with content analysis, and internal market competition rule is discussed. Thirdly, through calculating the Euclidean distance and Pearson correlation coefficient, distance statistics is applied to find out the dissimilarity and similarity of competitive behavior between Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Company and the opponents, which are then related to competitive aggressiveness to judge the validity of the preceding hypotheses.
Chapter 6 is the chapter of conclusion and prospect where the ideas of this paper are clearly and logically presented, the limitation and inadequacy existing in the research is pointed out and a prospect is made accordingly.
引文
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