住房金融对80后购房行为影响的实证研究
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摘要
我国的第三次生育高峰中出生的“80后”逐渐成长成为购房新军和住房贷款的重要客户,他们从住房金融中受益的同时也深受住房金融调控的影响。由于80后成长背景与其他的群体不同,在价值观和消费行为上表现出与80前较大的差异。对金融机构和开发商来说,在激烈的竞争环境和多变的政策环境中把握80后这一新兴消费群体的消费行为是有力的制胜法宝。
本文在广泛阅读国内外住房金融、住房消费行为、80后消费行为等相关文献的基础上,提出了住房金融变化对80后购房行为影响的模型和相关假设,重点研究了首付变化和利率变化对购房行为的影响。本文还引入“敏感度”和经济学中的“需求弹性”等概念,将购房行为中的购买意愿转化为消费者对住房金融政策变化的敏感度和需求弹性,更为形象和直观的研究80后和80前购房行为的不同,从而研究80后的购房行为特色。
在实证研究上,本文采用实验研究的方法简化变量之间的关系,考察80后和80前在同样的支付能力和住房金融背景下购买意愿和住房偏好的差异,通过卡方分析、单因素方差分析、双因素方差分析等对假设进行了检验。本文还分别根据80后和80前不同的敏感度进行判别分析,建立起个人因素和敏感度之间的判别关系,并检验按照敏感度分类的正确性,具有较强的现实指导意义。最后得出了一些有意义的结论,主要包括:
(1)住房金融条件一定时,80后和80前的购房行为存在显著差异,80后在购房时具有超前消费行为。
(2)住房金融变化对80后和80前购买意愿的影响有显著差异,但是对他们住房价格选择、住房特征选择和还款方式选择的影响无显著差异。
(3)80后对首付比例或者利率降低的敏感度高于80前消费者,对首付或者利率提高的敏感度低于80前消费者。总体来讲,他们对利率变化的敏感度要小于对首付变化的敏感度。
基于以上结论,本文的研究拓展了住房消费行为理论,为政府进行宏观调控提供了新思路,建立的敏感度判别函数使金融机构和企业更好的识别80后不同敏感度群体并采取不同的营销策略。
As the group called as "China's 'after 80s'", who was born in 1980s during the third baby boom, gradually growing into important customers of housing and housing finance market, they are deeply influenced by the policies of housing finance while benefiting from it. After 80s generation differentiate themselves greatly with other groups in values and consumption behavior because of their different growing background. It's crucial for financial institutions and real estate developers to grasp after 80 consumer groups so as to stand out in the fierce competition and changing policy environment.
On the basis of reading documents in housing finance, housing consumption behavior, and the consumption behavior of after 80s, the paper proposes a model of "Effects of changing housing finance policy on the house purchasing behavior for after 80s group " and some hypotheses, focusing on the influence of changing down payment and interest rate of housing finance. This paper also introduces into the concepts of "sensitivity" and "elasticity of demand" in economics, transforming purchase intentions into consumer demand sensitivity and elasticity to the changes of financial policies.
In this paper, experimental research method is used to simplify the relationship between variables. Statistical methods such as Chi-square test, Single-Factor Analysis of Variance, Two-Factor Variance Analysis and Discriminant Analysis are applied to detect differences in purchase intentions and preferences between after 80s and before 80s under the same condition of economic capacity and housing finance background. With these methods, the thesis draws some significant conclusions as followings.
After 80s generation are likely to consume in advance when buying a house compared with before 80s. They are more sensitive to the decrease of the first payment and interest rate than before 80s because they want to buy better house while less sensitive to the increase of the first payment and interest rate. Overall, they are more sensitive to changes of the first payment than interest rate for both of the two groups.
This study provides a new idea for the macro-control of Government .And with discriminant functions to identify consumer sensitivity, financial institutions and real estate enterprises can better manage "after 80" customer groups.
本文在广泛阅读国内外住房金融、住房消费行为、80后消费行为等相关文献的基础上,提出了住房金融变化对80后购房行为影响的模型和相关假设,重点研究了首付变化和利率变化对购房行为的影响。本文还引入“敏感度”和经济学中的“需求弹性”等概念,将购房行为中的购买意愿转化为消费者对住房金融政策变化的敏感度和需求弹性,更为形象和直观的研究80后和80前购房行为的不同,从而研究80后的购房行为特色。
在实证研究上,本文采用实验研究的方法简化变量之间的关系,考察80后和80前在同样的支付能力和住房金融背景下购买意愿和住房偏好的差异,通过卡方分析、单因素方差分析、双因素方差分析等对假设进行了检验。本文还分别根据80后和80前不同的敏感度进行判别分析,建立起个人因素和敏感度之间的判别关系,并检验按照敏感度分类的正确性,具有较强的现实指导意义。最后得出了一些有意义的结论,主要包括:
(1)住房金融条件一定时,80后和80前的购房行为存在显著差异,80后在购房时具有超前消费行为。
(2)住房金融变化对80后和80前购买意愿的影响有显著差异,但是对他们住房价格选择、住房特征选择和还款方式选择的影响无显著差异。
(3)80后对首付比例或者利率降低的敏感度高于80前消费者,对首付或者利率提高的敏感度低于80前消费者。总体来讲,他们对利率变化的敏感度要小于对首付变化的敏感度。
基于以上结论,本文的研究拓展了住房消费行为理论,为政府进行宏观调控提供了新思路,建立的敏感度判别函数使金融机构和企业更好的识别80后不同敏感度群体并采取不同的营销策略。
As the group called as "China's 'after 80s'", who was born in 1980s during the third baby boom, gradually growing into important customers of housing and housing finance market, they are deeply influenced by the policies of housing finance while benefiting from it. After 80s generation differentiate themselves greatly with other groups in values and consumption behavior because of their different growing background. It's crucial for financial institutions and real estate developers to grasp after 80 consumer groups so as to stand out in the fierce competition and changing policy environment.
On the basis of reading documents in housing finance, housing consumption behavior, and the consumption behavior of after 80s, the paper proposes a model of "Effects of changing housing finance policy on the house purchasing behavior for after 80s group " and some hypotheses, focusing on the influence of changing down payment and interest rate of housing finance. This paper also introduces into the concepts of "sensitivity" and "elasticity of demand" in economics, transforming purchase intentions into consumer demand sensitivity and elasticity to the changes of financial policies.
In this paper, experimental research method is used to simplify the relationship between variables. Statistical methods such as Chi-square test, Single-Factor Analysis of Variance, Two-Factor Variance Analysis and Discriminant Analysis are applied to detect differences in purchase intentions and preferences between after 80s and before 80s under the same condition of economic capacity and housing finance background. With these methods, the thesis draws some significant conclusions as followings.
After 80s generation are likely to consume in advance when buying a house compared with before 80s. They are more sensitive to the decrease of the first payment and interest rate than before 80s because they want to buy better house while less sensitive to the increase of the first payment and interest rate. Overall, they are more sensitive to changes of the first payment than interest rate for both of the two groups.
This study provides a new idea for the macro-control of Government .And with discriminant functions to identify consumer sensitivity, financial institutions and real estate enterprises can better manage "after 80" customer groups.
引文
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