车辆驾驶人事故前应急操作行为模式研究
摘要
驾驶人作为道路交通事故的主要承载者、道路交通事故中的不确定因素，是道路交通事故中的核心要素。驾驶人危险信息认知与判断思维过程、驾驶人基于避险认知的应急操作特性是驾驶人非常态习性，研究驾驶人危险信息警觉程度与操作力度的车辆应急响应水平，实现驾驶人事故前应急操作行为模拟对工程应用具有广泛的实际意义。
本文依托“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重大项目，运用样本分析、试验验证、理论研究三者相结合的研究思路，在充分评价道路交通事故群体的基础上，建立道路交通事故致因的驾驶人、车辆、道路环境评价指标体系，运用层次分析法、模糊评判法研究驾驶人危险信息处理各阶段状态水平，解决了驾驶人危险信息错误感知因素的量化分析问题，并建立驾驶人危险信息应急操作行为模式模糊控制模型，逻辑推理道路交通事故前驾驶人避险操作行为，准确认知道路交通事故中驾驶人因素，是有助于有效提高道路交通事故鉴定信度与效度的关键问题研究课题。
驾驶人危险信息认知与判断是驾驶人应急决策的主要信息依据，而驾驶人的信息感知是驾驶人警觉危险信息的根本途径。构建驾驶人认知结构模型，为驾驶人危险信息认知与判断量化分析建立信息处理的逻辑结构和物理流程，探究驾驶人应急操作行为影响因素，确定驾驶人危险信息认知与判断的因素集及评判集，并建立驾驶人危险信息认知与判断模糊评判模型。从驾驶人结构和驾驶人信息获取路径入手，考虑驾驶人危险信息处理过程及其对避险操作行为的影响，在深入分析道路交通事故致因的诸多因素中，运用层次分析法综合决策对道路交通事故有突出贡献率的主要因素。认知评价试验是获得驾驶人危险信息错误感知评语数据的重要手段，引入模糊逻辑推理的模糊评价方法，实现驾驶人危险信息错误感知因素与应急操作行为模式的转换，为驾驶人的应急决策研究奠定基本理论基础。
驾驶人的应急决策是关系道路交通事故损害结果的直接因素和事故鉴定的重要组成部分。构建驾驶人决策结构模型，搭建驾驶人危险信息避险决策的物理结构，通过对驾驶人——车辆——道路环境系统的危险性评价，建立驾驶人危险意识测度统计模型，确定驾驶人危险意识测度置信区间。深度挖掘道路交通事故案例信息，使用模糊控制理论、多目标决策理论，在驾驶人危险信息感知与理解的基础上，建立能够智能决策的驾驶人危险信息应急操作行为模式模糊控制模型，并使用道路交通事故现场勘测样本的专家鉴定结果对模型进行分析和检测。
基于驾驶人险态理解程度与避险操作力度的车辆应急响应水平是道路交通事故再现的重要内容，是逆证驾驶人事故前避险操作的必要手段，而驾驶人避险操作车辆应急响应试验是获得驾驶人避险操作力度与车辆应急响应水平评估数据的有效途径。针对车辆系统动力学解算的实时性特点，研究了用于车辆制动应急响应和车辆转向应急响应的车辆系统动力学计算模型，开发了车辆应急响应系统动力学解算系统，该解算系统可以模拟计算基于驾驶人应急操作特性的车辆应急响应任一时刻车辆的运动状态参数，并通过驾驶人突显信息避险操作车辆应急响应测试试验，分析驾驶人的突显信息警觉程度及基于驾驶人避险认知的应急操作特性，测定与车辆属性相关的车辆应急响应水平，检验车辆应急响应系统动力学计算模型的适用性。
交通冲突是形成交通事故的必然阶段，基于交通冲突理论的交通事故鉴定技术可以实现交通事故的深度鉴定。利用交通冲突技术，分析交通冲突至交通事故的时间历程渐变事件，研究交通冲突的费歇判别法，并成功应用于案例分析，实现交通冲突至交通事故的完整过程再现。通过系统分析交通冲突与交通事故的关联性和驾驶人在整个事件中的主导作用，开发了“驾驶人事故前应急操作行为模式模拟系统”软件，具有驾驶人事故前应急操作行为模拟功能，可以辅助事故鉴定机构提高道路交通事故鉴定结果的准确性和科学性。
Drivers, as the main carrier and uncertain factor in road traffic accident, are the core elements of roadtraffic accidents. The process of driver’s cognition and judgment about dangerous information, and thecharacteristics of driver’s dealing with emergencies based on hedge cognition are abnormal habits of driver.Thus, there is the wide range of practical significances for engineering application to study driver’salertness to hazard and operation efforts of vehicles emergency response level, and realize the simulationof drivers’ operation behavior in emergency before accidents.
This paper relies on “Eleventh Five” major project of the National Science and Technology SupportProgram and uses combined research ideas with sample analysis, experimental verification and theoreticalstudy. Based on an adequate assessment of road traffic accidents groups, the evaluation index system,including the driver, the vehicle and the road environment, which causing road traffic accidents, isestablished. With the help of the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation method, the state level ofdriver’s processing stages on dangerous information is studied to solve quantitative analysis problem aboutthe factors of driver’s wrong perception of the dangerous information. And a fuzzy control model ofdriver’s behavior patterns of emergency operation on dangerous information is established. Logicalreasoning of driver’s hedging behavior before road traffic accidents and accurate cognition of the factors ofdriver in road traffic accidents could contribute to the study on the key problem of improving the reliabilityand validity of identifying road traffic accidents.
Driver’s emergency decision is mainly based on his or her cognition and judgment about dangerousinformation. And driver’s perception of information is the fundamental way to keep vigilant to dangerousinformation. Then the model of driver’s cognitive structure, the logical structure and physical processes ofinformation processing are established for quantitative analysis of driver’s cognition and judgment aboutdangerous information. And the factors influencing driver’s emergency operation behavior are explored,the factor set and the evaluation set of driver’s cognition and judgment about dangerous information aredetermined and the model of fuzzy evaluation of driver’s cognition and judgment on dangerousinformation is established. Starting from the way to obtain the structure and information of drivers,considering driver's processing on dangerous information and its impact on the behavior of hedgingoperation, the main factors with outstanding contributions to road traffic accidents are syntheticallydecided by using the analytic hierarchy process after deeply analyzing many factors causing road traffic accidents. Cognitive evaluation test is an important means to obtain the review data of driver's faultperception to risks. The fuzzy evaluation method of fuzzy logic reasoning is introduced, and the conversionof the factors influencing driver’s error-aware of dangerous information and the mode of driver’semergency operating behavior is realized, which lays the basic theoretical foundation for the research ondriver’s emergency decision-making.
Driver’s emergency decision-making is the direct factor of the damage results of road trafficaccidents and an important part of accident identification. The model of driver’s decision-making structureis built, and the hedging physical structure of driver’s decision-making about dangerous information is setup. Through the risk assessment of the system of driver-vehicle-road environment, the measurestatistical model of driver’s awareness to risks is established to determine the measure confidence intervalof driver’s awareness to risks. With the deep exploration of the information of road traffic accident case,and with the help of fuzzy control theory and multi-objective decision-making theory, on the basis ofdriver’s perception and understanding of risk information, the fuzzy control model, which can makeintelligent decision, of the pattern of driver’s emergency operation behavior on risk information is built,which is analyzed and tested by the experts appraisal results of site survey samples in road trafficaccidents.
The emergency response level of vehicles based on risk understanding degree and hedging strengthof driver is an important content of accident reconstruction and a necessary means of hedging inverselicense to drive before the accident. And the test of driver’s hedging strength and the vehicle emergencyresponse is an effective way to get assessment data of driver hedging efforts and vehicle emergencyresponse level. Aiming at real-time characteristics of vehicle system dynamics solver, this paper studies thecomputational model of vehicle system dynamics used for the emergency response of vehicle braking andsteering, and develops the dynamics solver system of vehicle emergency response system, which cansimulate computation parameters of motion state at any time of vehicle emergency response based on thecharacteristics of driver’s emergency operation. And through the test of driver’s highlight informationhedging operation and vehicle emergency response, the degree of driver’s alert for highlight informationand the characteristics of driver’s emergency operation which are based on hedging cognition are analyzed,and the level of vehicle emergency response related to vehicle characteristics are determined, and theusability of system dynamic model of vehicle emergency response is examined.
Traffic conflict is the inevitable stage of formation of traffic accident, and the technique, based on thetheory of traffic conflict, used for identifying traffic accident can realize the deep identification of trafficaccident. Using traffic conflict technique, time history gradual change events from traffic conflict toaccident are analyzed. And Fisher distinguishing method of traffic conflict is studied, which is applied tocase analysis successfully to realize the reproduction of the complete process from traffic conflict toaccident. Through systematical analysis of the relation between traffic conflict and traffic accident and theleading role of driver in the event, the software “The Simulation System of Driver’s Emergency OperationBehavior Pattern before Accident” is developed, which processes the simulation function of driver’semergency operation behavior before accident, and can assist accident accrediting bodies to improveveracity and scientific of identification results of road traffic accident.
本文依托“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重大项目，运用样本分析、试验验证、理论研究三者相结合的研究思路，在充分评价道路交通事故群体的基础上，建立道路交通事故致因的驾驶人、车辆、道路环境评价指标体系，运用层次分析法、模糊评判法研究驾驶人危险信息处理各阶段状态水平，解决了驾驶人危险信息错误感知因素的量化分析问题，并建立驾驶人危险信息应急操作行为模式模糊控制模型，逻辑推理道路交通事故前驾驶人避险操作行为，准确认知道路交通事故中驾驶人因素，是有助于有效提高道路交通事故鉴定信度与效度的关键问题研究课题。
驾驶人危险信息认知与判断是驾驶人应急决策的主要信息依据，而驾驶人的信息感知是驾驶人警觉危险信息的根本途径。构建驾驶人认知结构模型，为驾驶人危险信息认知与判断量化分析建立信息处理的逻辑结构和物理流程，探究驾驶人应急操作行为影响因素，确定驾驶人危险信息认知与判断的因素集及评判集，并建立驾驶人危险信息认知与判断模糊评判模型。从驾驶人结构和驾驶人信息获取路径入手，考虑驾驶人危险信息处理过程及其对避险操作行为的影响，在深入分析道路交通事故致因的诸多因素中，运用层次分析法综合决策对道路交通事故有突出贡献率的主要因素。认知评价试验是获得驾驶人危险信息错误感知评语数据的重要手段，引入模糊逻辑推理的模糊评价方法，实现驾驶人危险信息错误感知因素与应急操作行为模式的转换，为驾驶人的应急决策研究奠定基本理论基础。
驾驶人的应急决策是关系道路交通事故损害结果的直接因素和事故鉴定的重要组成部分。构建驾驶人决策结构模型，搭建驾驶人危险信息避险决策的物理结构，通过对驾驶人——车辆——道路环境系统的危险性评价，建立驾驶人危险意识测度统计模型，确定驾驶人危险意识测度置信区间。深度挖掘道路交通事故案例信息，使用模糊控制理论、多目标决策理论，在驾驶人危险信息感知与理解的基础上，建立能够智能决策的驾驶人危险信息应急操作行为模式模糊控制模型，并使用道路交通事故现场勘测样本的专家鉴定结果对模型进行分析和检测。
基于驾驶人险态理解程度与避险操作力度的车辆应急响应水平是道路交通事故再现的重要内容，是逆证驾驶人事故前避险操作的必要手段，而驾驶人避险操作车辆应急响应试验是获得驾驶人避险操作力度与车辆应急响应水平评估数据的有效途径。针对车辆系统动力学解算的实时性特点，研究了用于车辆制动应急响应和车辆转向应急响应的车辆系统动力学计算模型，开发了车辆应急响应系统动力学解算系统，该解算系统可以模拟计算基于驾驶人应急操作特性的车辆应急响应任一时刻车辆的运动状态参数，并通过驾驶人突显信息避险操作车辆应急响应测试试验，分析驾驶人的突显信息警觉程度及基于驾驶人避险认知的应急操作特性，测定与车辆属性相关的车辆应急响应水平，检验车辆应急响应系统动力学计算模型的适用性。
交通冲突是形成交通事故的必然阶段，基于交通冲突理论的交通事故鉴定技术可以实现交通事故的深度鉴定。利用交通冲突技术，分析交通冲突至交通事故的时间历程渐变事件，研究交通冲突的费歇判别法，并成功应用于案例分析，实现交通冲突至交通事故的完整过程再现。通过系统分析交通冲突与交通事故的关联性和驾驶人在整个事件中的主导作用，开发了“驾驶人事故前应急操作行为模式模拟系统”软件，具有驾驶人事故前应急操作行为模拟功能，可以辅助事故鉴定机构提高道路交通事故鉴定结果的准确性和科学性。
Drivers, as the main carrier and uncertain factor in road traffic accident, are the core elements of roadtraffic accidents. The process of driver’s cognition and judgment about dangerous information, and thecharacteristics of driver’s dealing with emergencies based on hedge cognition are abnormal habits of driver.Thus, there is the wide range of practical significances for engineering application to study driver’salertness to hazard and operation efforts of vehicles emergency response level, and realize the simulationof drivers’ operation behavior in emergency before accidents.
This paper relies on “Eleventh Five” major project of the National Science and Technology SupportProgram and uses combined research ideas with sample analysis, experimental verification and theoreticalstudy. Based on an adequate assessment of road traffic accidents groups, the evaluation index system,including the driver, the vehicle and the road environment, which causing road traffic accidents, isestablished. With the help of the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation method, the state level ofdriver’s processing stages on dangerous information is studied to solve quantitative analysis problem aboutthe factors of driver’s wrong perception of the dangerous information. And a fuzzy control model ofdriver’s behavior patterns of emergency operation on dangerous information is established. Logicalreasoning of driver’s hedging behavior before road traffic accidents and accurate cognition of the factors ofdriver in road traffic accidents could contribute to the study on the key problem of improving the reliabilityand validity of identifying road traffic accidents.
Driver’s emergency decision is mainly based on his or her cognition and judgment about dangerousinformation. And driver’s perception of information is the fundamental way to keep vigilant to dangerousinformation. Then the model of driver’s cognitive structure, the logical structure and physical processes ofinformation processing are established for quantitative analysis of driver’s cognition and judgment aboutdangerous information. And the factors influencing driver’s emergency operation behavior are explored,the factor set and the evaluation set of driver’s cognition and judgment about dangerous information aredetermined and the model of fuzzy evaluation of driver’s cognition and judgment on dangerousinformation is established. Starting from the way to obtain the structure and information of drivers,considering driver's processing on dangerous information and its impact on the behavior of hedgingoperation, the main factors with outstanding contributions to road traffic accidents are syntheticallydecided by using the analytic hierarchy process after deeply analyzing many factors causing road traffic accidents. Cognitive evaluation test is an important means to obtain the review data of driver's faultperception to risks. The fuzzy evaluation method of fuzzy logic reasoning is introduced, and the conversionof the factors influencing driver’s error-aware of dangerous information and the mode of driver’semergency operating behavior is realized, which lays the basic theoretical foundation for the research ondriver’s emergency decision-making.
Driver’s emergency decision-making is the direct factor of the damage results of road trafficaccidents and an important part of accident identification. The model of driver’s decision-making structureis built, and the hedging physical structure of driver’s decision-making about dangerous information is setup. Through the risk assessment of the system of driver-vehicle-road environment, the measurestatistical model of driver’s awareness to risks is established to determine the measure confidence intervalof driver’s awareness to risks. With the deep exploration of the information of road traffic accident case,and with the help of fuzzy control theory and multi-objective decision-making theory, on the basis ofdriver’s perception and understanding of risk information, the fuzzy control model, which can makeintelligent decision, of the pattern of driver’s emergency operation behavior on risk information is built,which is analyzed and tested by the experts appraisal results of site survey samples in road trafficaccidents.
The emergency response level of vehicles based on risk understanding degree and hedging strengthof driver is an important content of accident reconstruction and a necessary means of hedging inverselicense to drive before the accident. And the test of driver’s hedging strength and the vehicle emergencyresponse is an effective way to get assessment data of driver hedging efforts and vehicle emergencyresponse level. Aiming at real-time characteristics of vehicle system dynamics solver, this paper studies thecomputational model of vehicle system dynamics used for the emergency response of vehicle braking andsteering, and develops the dynamics solver system of vehicle emergency response system, which cansimulate computation parameters of motion state at any time of vehicle emergency response based on thecharacteristics of driver’s emergency operation. And through the test of driver’s highlight informationhedging operation and vehicle emergency response, the degree of driver’s alert for highlight informationand the characteristics of driver’s emergency operation which are based on hedging cognition are analyzed,and the level of vehicle emergency response related to vehicle characteristics are determined, and theusability of system dynamic model of vehicle emergency response is examined.
Traffic conflict is the inevitable stage of formation of traffic accident, and the technique, based on thetheory of traffic conflict, used for identifying traffic accident can realize the deep identification of trafficaccident. Using traffic conflict technique, time history gradual change events from traffic conflict toaccident are analyzed. And Fisher distinguishing method of traffic conflict is studied, which is applied tocase analysis successfully to realize the reproduction of the complete process from traffic conflict toaccident. Through systematical analysis of the relation between traffic conflict and traffic accident and theleading role of driver in the event, the software “The Simulation System of Driver’s Emergency OperationBehavior Pattern before Accident” is developed, which processes the simulation function of driver’semergency operation behavior before accident, and can assist accident accrediting bodies to improveveracity and scientific of identification results of road traffic accident.
引文
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