零售业供应链风险的评估研究
|
摘要
20世纪60年代之后,企业之间的竞争日趋激烈,从产品之间的竞争逐步发展成为供应链之间的竞争。由于零售商最接近消费者,可以迅速准确地掌握市场需求,在供应链中的核心地位日益凸显,供应链的管理也从过去以制造业为核心的推动式经营向为以零售业为主导的拉动式经营转变。供应链中的成员企业环环相扣,联系紧密,任何一个环节的风险都会自动传播并且被不断放大,形成多米诺效应,致使企业经营受损。供应链风险已经成为企业家和学者共同关注的重点问题。
本文分析了我国零售业的发展现状和供应链管理的特点,阐述了供应链在零售业发展中的重要作用;借鉴供应链运作参考模型(SCOR模型)将零售业供应链系统划分为系统层、模块层和业务流程层,分别从系统外部环境和上述系统内部三个层次对零售业供应链风险进行了识别和归类;用定性和定量相结合的方法建立了零售业供应链风险的评价指标体系;结合层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价法确定了指标权重并进一步判定了定性指标的评价区间,对定量指标的精确值进行模糊转换,最终将零售企业供应链的风险确定为4个等级;文章对K企业进行了实证研究,验证了模型的合理可行性,并针对K企业存在的供应链风险提出防范对策和建议。本文对以零售企业为主导的供应链风险的防范和管理有一定的参考价值。
From 60s of the 20~(th) century, , the competition of supply chain has become the main competition ways among enterprises with the increasingly fierce market competition. In recent years, the retail enterprises keep their position as the core status in the supply chain for the reason that they are directly to consumers, better dynamically to control and guide other enterprise's production and sales volume more easily. Supply Chain has been changed from manufacture-centered to retail-centered. Supply chain member companies linked together closely, so any risk happened in any link nod of supply chain will be continuously amplified, which resulting in serious consequences due to the bullwhip effect, thus entrepreneurs and scholars gradually pay more attention on the supply chain risk.
In this paper, from domestic and foreign study in supply chain risk management and retail enterprises supply chain management, we analyze the level and structure of supply chain ,telling about the importance of supply chain management for retailers. We recognized and classified all the risk factors for retail enterprise supply chain from the system layer, module layer and business process by drawing on Supply Chain Operations Reference Model (SCOR model). We also construct the retail supply chain risk comprehensive evaluation index system with a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, and do research on evaluating system for retail chain by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. We further determine the qualitative indicators of the evaluation and transform the quantitative index to fuzzy index. Finally, we take K enterprise as an example to verify if the evaluation model is reasonable and feasible. The empirical study of K enterprise of supply chain risk was put forward countermeasures and suggestions.
In this paper, the retail enterprises in supply chain risk and its evaluation method conducted preliminary exploration research. We established the retail chain risk assessment model, so it has certain reference value for risk prevention and management of retail-driven supply chain.
本文分析了我国零售业的发展现状和供应链管理的特点,阐述了供应链在零售业发展中的重要作用;借鉴供应链运作参考模型(SCOR模型)将零售业供应链系统划分为系统层、模块层和业务流程层,分别从系统外部环境和上述系统内部三个层次对零售业供应链风险进行了识别和归类;用定性和定量相结合的方法建立了零售业供应链风险的评价指标体系;结合层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价法确定了指标权重并进一步判定了定性指标的评价区间,对定量指标的精确值进行模糊转换,最终将零售企业供应链的风险确定为4个等级;文章对K企业进行了实证研究,验证了模型的合理可行性,并针对K企业存在的供应链风险提出防范对策和建议。本文对以零售企业为主导的供应链风险的防范和管理有一定的参考价值。
From 60s of the 20~(th) century, , the competition of supply chain has become the main competition ways among enterprises with the increasingly fierce market competition. In recent years, the retail enterprises keep their position as the core status in the supply chain for the reason that they are directly to consumers, better dynamically to control and guide other enterprise's production and sales volume more easily. Supply Chain has been changed from manufacture-centered to retail-centered. Supply chain member companies linked together closely, so any risk happened in any link nod of supply chain will be continuously amplified, which resulting in serious consequences due to the bullwhip effect, thus entrepreneurs and scholars gradually pay more attention on the supply chain risk.
In this paper, from domestic and foreign study in supply chain risk management and retail enterprises supply chain management, we analyze the level and structure of supply chain ,telling about the importance of supply chain management for retailers. We recognized and classified all the risk factors for retail enterprise supply chain from the system layer, module layer and business process by drawing on Supply Chain Operations Reference Model (SCOR model). We also construct the retail supply chain risk comprehensive evaluation index system with a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, and do research on evaluating system for retail chain by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. We further determine the qualitative indicators of the evaluation and transform the quantitative index to fuzzy index. Finally, we take K enterprise as an example to verify if the evaluation model is reasonable and feasible. The empirical study of K enterprise of supply chain risk was put forward countermeasures and suggestions.
In this paper, the retail enterprises in supply chain risk and its evaluation method conducted preliminary exploration research. We established the retail chain risk assessment model, so it has certain reference value for risk prevention and management of retail-driven supply chain.
引文
[1] Gavin Souter, Risks from supply chain also demand attention [J]. Business Insurance, Chicago May 15, 2000. Vol. 34, Issue.20: 26~27
[2] Johnson M.E.,Learning from toys: lessons in managing supply chain risk from the toy industry[J]. California Management Review, 2001, spring.
[3] Cranfield Management School. Supply chain vulnerability [R]. Cranfield University,2002.
[4] Deloitte. Supply chain risk management [R]. 2004
[5] Sheffi Yossi.Supply chain management under the threat of international terrorism [J]. The International Journal of Logisties Management, 2001, 12 (2): 1~11
[6] Peter E. International supply chain ability,tradeoffs Between flexibility and uncertainty [J]. International Supply Flexibility and Uncertainty In Production Management, 2001: 21
[7] George A.Zsidisin. G.A. Managerial Perceptions of Supply Risk [J]. The Jounal of supply Chain Management, 2003, 8 (6): 14~25
[8] Lisa M Hauser, Risk~adjusted Supply Chain Management [J]. Supply Chain Management Review, 2003. 11~12
[9] Peter Finch, Supply Chain Risk Management [J]. Supply Chain Management,2004.9:183
[10] Hallikas. Risk Management Processes in Supplier Networks [J]. Production Economics, 2004 (90): 47~58
[11] Deleris L.A., Elkins D, Pate~cornell M.E. Analyzing Losses from Hazard Exposure: A conservative probabilisie estimate using supply chain risk simulation. Proceedings of the 2004 winter simulmion conference, 2004
[12] Stan Smith. Applying Risk Management to The Supply Chain [J]. Los Angeles Convention Center. 2005 (4)
[13] Helen Peck and Uta Juttne. Risk Management In the Supply Chain [J]. Cranfield Centre for Logistics and Transportation. 2002 (12)
[14] Suh and Kwon. The Role of Bilateral Asset Specificity and Replace Ability on Trust in Supply Chain Partner, Working Paper, 2000
[15] George A. Zsidisin, Gary L. Ragatz, and Steven A. Melnyk. The Dark side of Supply Chain Management [J]. Supply Chain Management Review. 2005 (3)
[16] Roger Blackwell著,季建华等译.重构新千年零售业供应链[M].上海:远东出版社,2000
[17] David Simchi-Levi著,季建华等译.供应链设计与管理:概念、战略与案例研究[M],中国财政经济出版社, 2004年, 145~182
[18] Matt Waller, M.Eric Johnson, and Tom Davis. Vendor-Managed Inventory In the Retail Supply Chain [J]. Journal of Business Logistics, 2001
[19] Vishal Gaur, Marshall L.Fisher, Ananth Raman. An Econometric Analysis of Inventory Turnover Performance in Retail Service [J]. Management Science. Vol. 51, No.2, February 2005, 181~194
[20]丁伟东,刘凯,贺国先.供应链风险研究[J].中国安全科学学报, 2003, 13 (4): 64~66.
[21]倪燕翎等.供应链风险管理与企业风险管理之比较[J].物流技术, 2004 (12): 40~42
[22]马林.全球贸易环境下的供应链一体化风险管理[M].北京:经济科学出版社2007
[23]张齐刚.浅谈供应链管理的风险规避问题[J].科技与管理, 2001, 3: 75~76
[24]韩东东,施国洪,马汉武.供应链管理中的风险防范[J].工业工程, 2002,5 (3): 37~41
[25]朱道立,龚国华,罗齐.物流和供应链管理[M].上海:复旦大学出版社2001(4): 3~4
[26]胡金环.供应链风险管理据探讨[J].价值工程, 2005 (3): 36~38
[27]马士华,林勇.供应链管理[M].机械工业出版社.2007
[28]马林.基于SCOR应链风险识别评估与一体化管理研究[D].浙江:浙江大学博士学位论文, 2005
[29]郝海,郑王愕.基于Shapley值的供应链合作伙伴利益风险分配机制[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学报), 2005, 7 (5): 71~75
[30]杨德礼,郭琼.基于不同风险偏好组合的供应链协作方式的研究[J].管理科学, 2005, 1 8(5): 7~10
[31]李欢.供应链风险研究[D].西安:电子科技大学硕士学位论文, 2005: 16~18
[32]刘冬林,王春香.供应链多风险组合的综合评估及风险管理[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工版),2006, 28 (8):110~113
[33]宁钟,何滨.供应链风险管理中的期权机制[J].系统工程学报, 2007, 2
[34]杜鹏.供应链的风险及分配模型[J].内蒙古科技与经济, 2002, 3: 52~53
[35]谢科范,彭华涛.供应链管理中的“牛鞭效应”与信息风险[J].中国机械工程,2003, 14 (17): 10~12
[36]解琨,刘凯,周双贵.供应链战略联盟的风险问题研究[J].中国安全科学学报, 2003, 13 (1): 38~4l
[37]张存禄等.数据挖掘在供应链风险控制中的应用研究[J].科学与科学技术管理, 2004
[38]孙洪杰.供应链信息失真防范的目标激励机制博弈分析[J].重庆大学学报, 2003 (12)
[39]宁钟.供应链脆弱性的影响因素及其管理原则[J].中国流通经济, 2004 (4)
[40]庸宏祥.基于交易成本的供应链战略伙伴关系量化[J].系统工程理论方法应用, 2004 (4): 138~141
[41]陈顺霞.重构零售业供应链[J].上海管理科学, 2003 (1): 26~28
[42]丁可思.从缺货看本土零售业供应链的优化[J].中国企业家, 2004(8): 12~15
[43]龚国华.从商品缺货现象看零售业的供应链管理[J].物流科技, 2004(5): 26~30
[44]郭冬乐.零售业进入供应链竞争时代——“国美现象”透视[J].价格理论与实践, 2004 (6): 45~47.
[45]宋华.物流供应链管理机制与发展[M].北京:经济管理出版社2002
[46] GB/T 18354-2001,物流术语[S]
[47]王燕,刘永胜.供应链风险管理概述[J].物流技术. 2008. 6
[48] Harland C. Brenchley R. Walker H. Risk in supply networks [J]. Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management, 2002, Vol.9, 51~62
[49] Spekman R.E., Davis E.W. Risky business: Expanding the discussion on risk and the extended enterprise [J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logisties Management, 2004, Vol.34, No.5, 414~433
[50] Teresa Wu, Jennifer Blackhurst, Vellayappan Chidambaram. A Model for Inbound Supply Risk Analysis [J]. Computers In Industry, 2006(1): 350~365
[51] David Bogataj, Marija Bogataj. Measuring the supply chain risk and vulnerability in frequency space [J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2007(1): 301~312
[52]李晓英,陈维政.供应链风险形成机理研究[J].中国流通经济, 2003 (9): 10~13
[53]张向阳,杨敏才等.供应链管理中风险分担与利益分配机制研究[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版), 2004 (5): 94~97
[54]田会,邵祥理.供应链风险识别与防范[J].物流科技, 2006(4): 26~30
[55]张力为,陈燕,陈飞.供应链风险识别与防范策略研究[J].内蒙古民族大学学报(社会科学版), 2007(2)
[56] C. Stevens. Successful Supply-chain Management [J]. Management Decision, Vol.28, No.*, 1992, 28 (8): 25~31
[57] John T.Mentzer. Developing And Measuring Supply Chain Mnagement Concepts [J]. Journal of Business Logistics, 2004. Vol. 25, No.1: 63~64
[58]胡滨. K企业供应链风险管理研究[D],上海:复旦大学硕士学位论文, 2009
[59]刘桢云,胡振邦.基于SCOR模型的供应链风险识别与评估研究[J].物流科技, 2009 (3) 110~112
[60]信息周刊.埃森哲联合全球信息安全[R]. 2009
[2] Johnson M.E.,Learning from toys: lessons in managing supply chain risk from the toy industry[J]. California Management Review, 2001, spring.
[3] Cranfield Management School. Supply chain vulnerability [R]. Cranfield University,2002.
[4] Deloitte. Supply chain risk management [R]. 2004
[5] Sheffi Yossi.Supply chain management under the threat of international terrorism [J]. The International Journal of Logisties Management, 2001, 12 (2): 1~11
[6] Peter E. International supply chain ability,tradeoffs Between flexibility and uncertainty [J]. International Supply Flexibility and Uncertainty In Production Management, 2001: 21
[7] George A.Zsidisin. G.A. Managerial Perceptions of Supply Risk [J]. The Jounal of supply Chain Management, 2003, 8 (6): 14~25
[8] Lisa M Hauser, Risk~adjusted Supply Chain Management [J]. Supply Chain Management Review, 2003. 11~12
[9] Peter Finch, Supply Chain Risk Management [J]. Supply Chain Management,2004.9:183
[10] Hallikas. Risk Management Processes in Supplier Networks [J]. Production Economics, 2004 (90): 47~58
[11] Deleris L.A., Elkins D, Pate~cornell M.E. Analyzing Losses from Hazard Exposure: A conservative probabilisie estimate using supply chain risk simulation. Proceedings of the 2004 winter simulmion conference, 2004
[12] Stan Smith. Applying Risk Management to The Supply Chain [J]. Los Angeles Convention Center. 2005 (4)
[13] Helen Peck and Uta Juttne. Risk Management In the Supply Chain [J]. Cranfield Centre for Logistics and Transportation. 2002 (12)
[14] Suh and Kwon. The Role of Bilateral Asset Specificity and Replace Ability on Trust in Supply Chain Partner, Working Paper, 2000
[15] George A. Zsidisin, Gary L. Ragatz, and Steven A. Melnyk. The Dark side of Supply Chain Management [J]. Supply Chain Management Review. 2005 (3)
[16] Roger Blackwell著,季建华等译.重构新千年零售业供应链[M].上海:远东出版社,2000
[17] David Simchi-Levi著,季建华等译.供应链设计与管理:概念、战略与案例研究[M],中国财政经济出版社, 2004年, 145~182
[18] Matt Waller, M.Eric Johnson, and Tom Davis. Vendor-Managed Inventory In the Retail Supply Chain [J]. Journal of Business Logistics, 2001
[19] Vishal Gaur, Marshall L.Fisher, Ananth Raman. An Econometric Analysis of Inventory Turnover Performance in Retail Service [J]. Management Science. Vol. 51, No.2, February 2005, 181~194
[20]丁伟东,刘凯,贺国先.供应链风险研究[J].中国安全科学学报, 2003, 13 (4): 64~66.
[21]倪燕翎等.供应链风险管理与企业风险管理之比较[J].物流技术, 2004 (12): 40~42
[22]马林.全球贸易环境下的供应链一体化风险管理[M].北京:经济科学出版社2007
[23]张齐刚.浅谈供应链管理的风险规避问题[J].科技与管理, 2001, 3: 75~76
[24]韩东东,施国洪,马汉武.供应链管理中的风险防范[J].工业工程, 2002,5 (3): 37~41
[25]朱道立,龚国华,罗齐.物流和供应链管理[M].上海:复旦大学出版社2001(4): 3~4
[26]胡金环.供应链风险管理据探讨[J].价值工程, 2005 (3): 36~38
[27]马士华,林勇.供应链管理[M].机械工业出版社.2007
[28]马林.基于SCOR应链风险识别评估与一体化管理研究[D].浙江:浙江大学博士学位论文, 2005
[29]郝海,郑王愕.基于Shapley值的供应链合作伙伴利益风险分配机制[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学报), 2005, 7 (5): 71~75
[30]杨德礼,郭琼.基于不同风险偏好组合的供应链协作方式的研究[J].管理科学, 2005, 1 8(5): 7~10
[31]李欢.供应链风险研究[D].西安:电子科技大学硕士学位论文, 2005: 16~18
[32]刘冬林,王春香.供应链多风险组合的综合评估及风险管理[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工版),2006, 28 (8):110~113
[33]宁钟,何滨.供应链风险管理中的期权机制[J].系统工程学报, 2007, 2
[34]杜鹏.供应链的风险及分配模型[J].内蒙古科技与经济, 2002, 3: 52~53
[35]谢科范,彭华涛.供应链管理中的“牛鞭效应”与信息风险[J].中国机械工程,2003, 14 (17): 10~12
[36]解琨,刘凯,周双贵.供应链战略联盟的风险问题研究[J].中国安全科学学报, 2003, 13 (1): 38~4l
[37]张存禄等.数据挖掘在供应链风险控制中的应用研究[J].科学与科学技术管理, 2004
[38]孙洪杰.供应链信息失真防范的目标激励机制博弈分析[J].重庆大学学报, 2003 (12)
[39]宁钟.供应链脆弱性的影响因素及其管理原则[J].中国流通经济, 2004 (4)
[40]庸宏祥.基于交易成本的供应链战略伙伴关系量化[J].系统工程理论方法应用, 2004 (4): 138~141
[41]陈顺霞.重构零售业供应链[J].上海管理科学, 2003 (1): 26~28
[42]丁可思.从缺货看本土零售业供应链的优化[J].中国企业家, 2004(8): 12~15
[43]龚国华.从商品缺货现象看零售业的供应链管理[J].物流科技, 2004(5): 26~30
[44]郭冬乐.零售业进入供应链竞争时代——“国美现象”透视[J].价格理论与实践, 2004 (6): 45~47.
[45]宋华.物流供应链管理机制与发展[M].北京:经济管理出版社2002
[46] GB/T 18354-2001,物流术语[S]
[47]王燕,刘永胜.供应链风险管理概述[J].物流技术. 2008. 6
[48] Harland C. Brenchley R. Walker H. Risk in supply networks [J]. Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management, 2002, Vol.9, 51~62
[49] Spekman R.E., Davis E.W. Risky business: Expanding the discussion on risk and the extended enterprise [J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logisties Management, 2004, Vol.34, No.5, 414~433
[50] Teresa Wu, Jennifer Blackhurst, Vellayappan Chidambaram. A Model for Inbound Supply Risk Analysis [J]. Computers In Industry, 2006(1): 350~365
[51] David Bogataj, Marija Bogataj. Measuring the supply chain risk and vulnerability in frequency space [J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2007(1): 301~312
[52]李晓英,陈维政.供应链风险形成机理研究[J].中国流通经济, 2003 (9): 10~13
[53]张向阳,杨敏才等.供应链管理中风险分担与利益分配机制研究[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版), 2004 (5): 94~97
[54]田会,邵祥理.供应链风险识别与防范[J].物流科技, 2006(4): 26~30
[55]张力为,陈燕,陈飞.供应链风险识别与防范策略研究[J].内蒙古民族大学学报(社会科学版), 2007(2)
[56] C. Stevens. Successful Supply-chain Management [J]. Management Decision, Vol.28, No.*, 1992, 28 (8): 25~31
[57] John T.Mentzer. Developing And Measuring Supply Chain Mnagement Concepts [J]. Journal of Business Logistics, 2004. Vol. 25, No.1: 63~64
[58]胡滨. K企业供应链风险管理研究[D],上海:复旦大学硕士学位论文, 2009
[59]刘桢云,胡振邦.基于SCOR模型的供应链风险识别与评估研究[J].物流科技, 2009 (3) 110~112
[60]信息周刊.埃森哲联合全球信息安全[R]. 2009