公路运输系统的经济分析与评价
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摘要
我国公路运输进入了一个新的发展时期,公路里程大幅增长,覆盖全国及各省的干线公路网逐渐形成。特别是为抵御国际经济环境对我国的不利影响,中央政府提出了扩大内需、促进经济增长的十项措施,其中的第三项措施就是加快铁路、公路和机场等重大基础设施建设,完善高速公路网等。在公路运输事业快速增长的同时,做好公路运输系统的评价是十分必要的,以提高交通运输系统的运营效率。在总结国内外相关理论的研究内容和特点基础之上,建立评价树模型,从运输者微观的角度,分析最短时间路径评价的方法和过程。分析和研究对运输者选择路径产生影响的费用,利用评价树模型对各路经方案作出费用的定量和定性的评价。以公路等级和交通密度作为评价指标,利用关联矩阵法、功效系数法、多指标综合评价无量纲化方法等,对公路使用的舒适性进行评价。分别计算了运输时间、运输费用和公路使用舒适性的功效系数,然后结合这三项指标对公路使用效率进行综合评价,并且对评价结果做了定性分析和说明。从宏观的角度评价公路建设总量与地区结构的经济合理性,建立公路需求和供给模型,从而对公路的需求和供给的均衡情况作出分析和评价。
In order to meet the requirement of social economic development, the highway transportation of our country has entered a new developing period. The mileage of the highway, traffic volume of the highway and civil automobile possession amount has been increasing by a big margin, the arterial highway network covering the whole country and every province is forming gradually. Especially for resisting the negative impact of international economic environment on our country, ten implementations of expanding domestic demand and promoting economic development were proposed the central government in which the third implementation was to accelerate the construction of major infrastructure facilities such as railway, highway and airport, to perfect highway network and etc. While increasing fast in highway construction, we must pay attention to problem of whether the scheme of route building can meet the transporters’requirement in time, expenses and comfortableness, the total amount of highway construction and adaptability problem of economic development, problem of whether the regional structure of highway construction is rational, problem of balance between highway requirement and highway supply in order to dispose resources and fully utilize resources in macroscopic respect and microcosmic respect rationally, thus realizing the high-efficiency purpose of highway construction. In order to achieve such a goal, it is very essential to do a good job of the post-evaluation of the highway transportation system. The evaluation of the highway transportation system is divided into the macroscopic evaluation and micro evaluation. Micro evaluation includes time evaluation of highway service efficiency, expenses evaluation of highway service efficiency, comfortableness evaluation of transportation service and micro comprehensive evaluation of highway service efficiency, and macroscopic evaluation include the evaluation of the total amount of highway construction and evaluation of highway construction regional structure.
On the micro evaluation, firstly, on the basis of comparing various methods and characteristics of the shortest route analysis, establishing time (expense) evaluation tree model of highway service efficiency according with the research demand. The evaluation tree model not only can make optimum scheme, but the most important is that it can describe specific situation of various schemes and specific status of the pavement sections of each scheme, which exhibits the process analyzing on solving the optimum solution. Such description and exhibition are benefit for comparative analysis on the scheme of various routes, benefit for research on the reason for the results existed, and benefit for grasping the development trend of future dynamic schemas, which can make direction for the improvement of decision-making in the future and make time evaluation of highway service efficiency according to this model. Secondly, confirmed the intension, composition and computing technology of the freight, on this basis, appraised to the transportation route of the minimum expenses. Again, while taking highway classification as highway service comfortableness with the single index, using comparative method to make sure the weighing of each highway classification, taking the proportion occupied in total route length of each class pavement section composing each route scheme as the quantitative evaluation, and using incidence matrix method to calculate evaluation value of each route scheme. While taking transportation density as highway service comfortableness with the single index, taking proportion of highway pavement section with different transportation density in the whole route as weighing value, taking transportation density as evaluation value according to string and law formula to calculate the evaluation value of each route scheme. Combining with the two indexes of highway classification and transportation density to make integrated evaluation on highway service comfortableness, applying average weighing method of efficiency coefficient to calculate the evaluation value of each route scheme, thus proposing the new method and new thought of evaluation on highway service comfortableness, and perfecting the evaluation system of highway service comfortableness. Finally, utilizing the transportation time, transportation freight, transportation comfortableness as the evaluation index, I have carried on comprehensive evaluation to the choice of the optimum route in terms of the transporters. Through such evaluation, I have analyzed the adaptation situation of the focal point, sequencing of highway construction with transporters’requirement.
On the macroscopic evaluation of the highway transportation system, through an analysis of evaluation index of the total amount of the highway construction, proving the density of highway network and the connecting of highway network can well reflect the adaptability of highway construction and economic development. So, regarding Jilin Province as an example to illustrate how the density of highway network and the connecting of highway network can judge the density of highway network and the connecting of highway network can well reflect the adaptability of highway construction and economic development. Regarding GDP, regional land area, volume of trade, size of population as evaluation projects, and regarding nine areas of Jilin Province as evaluation scheme, using the level analytic approach and related matrix method to prove rationality of regional structure of highway construction. Through such evaluation, proving the adaptation situation of the density of highway network and feeding degree of highway network how to judge whether the total amount of highway construction is suitable for economic development.
In the evaluating process of carrying on highway equilibrium of demand and supply, at first, explaining the influence of a great deal of factors such as the total economy supply, industrial structure, geographical position, resource state, size of population and structure, and other transportation ways on highway demand. Secondly, defining the meaning of the highway demand, then dividing the highway demand into the passenger traffic highway demand and freight transportation demand, analyzing the factors influencing the passenger traffic highway demand and the highway freight transportation demand, having established the functional relation between passenger traffic highway demand and volume of passenger transport and the functional relation between freight transportation highway demand and volume of goods transported, and further confirmed the function of the aggregate highway demand, and by illustration, showing the function of the highway and highway demand and the changes of the highway demand. Then, defining the meaning of the highway supply and analyzing the factors influencing the highway supply, establishing the functional relation between delivery volume of the highway and amount of investment of the highway, and by illustration, showing the function of the highway supply and changes of the highway supply. Finally, comparing the determination of the best quantity of private products, combining the demand function of the highway with supply function, confirming the best quantity that the highway meets the demand thus making an appraise to the adaptation situations of the highway demand and highway supply.
The evaluation ,which is from the two aspects of microcosmic and macroscopic, is on the foundation of others’relevant researches, and is innovated while analyzing, comparing, using others’research results to some extent. The innovations are listed as follows:
1. In the alternative calculating method of minimum route, introduce decision-making tree concept and establish evaluation tree model combining joint point, scheme branches and evaluating point. With respect to the common used Dijkstra and Floyd calculation method, this model can clearly set out representation information and optimum seeking process of joint points and lines of each route, which is favorable for intuitionistic comparison of the route schemes and improvement of highway network layout optimal decision-making.
2. On the basis of defining comfortableness intension of highway transportation, regarding class of highway and vehicle density as the evaluation index, having put forward the new methods and new thinking on comfortableness of the highway transportation, having improved the evaluation system of the comfortableness of highway transportation.
3. Based on the principle of most optimum distribution of resources, regarding highway users as the subject of evaluation, and regarding transportation time, freight and comfortableness of transportation as the index, the comprehensive evaluation method of highway service efficiency is proposed, which compensates for over strong subjectivity in past index weighing value confirmation and the deficiency calculated according to the value of objective reality.
4. With respect to the difference of law of demand on highway network scale for volume of goods transported and volume of passenger transported, respectively taking volume of goods transported and volume of passenger transported as explaining variables, taking highway mileage as the variable being explained, establishing the highway freight demand model and highway passenger demand model, and then adding up and synthetizing the two items of highway freight demand model and highway passenger demand model under the same volume of volume of goods transported, further analyzing the impact of the changes of the volume of goods transported and volume of passenger transported on highway demand. This method is convenient for analyzing the impact and its comprehensive effects of volume of goods transported and volume of passenger transported on highway demand.
The research of the paper has offered the adaptability analysis of highway transportation system with the economy, social development, having set up and improved the content, index and method system of the post-evaluation of the highway transportation system, and offering reference for evaluation of the subsequent highway transportation system at the same time. Through the evaluation of the highway transportation system, we find problems existed in the running highway in time, offering the element task for the further analysis and study of the reasons for the existing problem and the countermeasure of the problem, thus promoting the operation result of the highway transportation system.
In order to meet the requirement of social economic development, the highway transportation of our country has entered a new developing period. The mileage of the highway, traffic volume of the highway and civil automobile possession amount has been increasing by a big margin, the arterial highway network covering the whole country and every province is forming gradually. Especially for resisting the negative impact of international economic environment on our country, ten implementations of expanding domestic demand and promoting economic development were proposed the central government in which the third implementation was to accelerate the construction of major infrastructure facilities such as railway, highway and airport, to perfect highway network and etc. While increasing fast in highway construction, we must pay attention to problem of whether the scheme of route building can meet the transporters’requirement in time, expenses and comfortableness, the total amount of highway construction and adaptability problem of economic development, problem of whether the regional structure of highway construction is rational, problem of balance between highway requirement and highway supply in order to dispose resources and fully utilize resources in macroscopic respect and microcosmic respect rationally, thus realizing the high-efficiency purpose of highway construction. In order to achieve such a goal, it is very essential to do a good job of the post-evaluation of the highway transportation system. The evaluation of the highway transportation system is divided into the macroscopic evaluation and micro evaluation. Micro evaluation includes time evaluation of highway service efficiency, expenses evaluation of highway service efficiency, comfortableness evaluation of transportation service and micro comprehensive evaluation of highway service efficiency, and macroscopic evaluation include the evaluation of the total amount of highway construction and evaluation of highway construction regional structure.
On the micro evaluation, firstly, on the basis of comparing various methods and characteristics of the shortest route analysis, establishing time (expense) evaluation tree model of highway service efficiency according with the research demand. The evaluation tree model not only can make optimum scheme, but the most important is that it can describe specific situation of various schemes and specific status of the pavement sections of each scheme, which exhibits the process analyzing on solving the optimum solution. Such description and exhibition are benefit for comparative analysis on the scheme of various routes, benefit for research on the reason for the results existed, and benefit for grasping the development trend of future dynamic schemas, which can make direction for the improvement of decision-making in the future and make time evaluation of highway service efficiency according to this model. Secondly, confirmed the intension, composition and computing technology of the freight, on this basis, appraised to the transportation route of the minimum expenses. Again, while taking highway classification as highway service comfortableness with the single index, using comparative method to make sure the weighing of each highway classification, taking the proportion occupied in total route length of each class pavement section composing each route scheme as the quantitative evaluation, and using incidence matrix method to calculate evaluation value of each route scheme. While taking transportation density as highway service comfortableness with the single index, taking proportion of highway pavement section with different transportation density in the whole route as weighing value, taking transportation density as evaluation value according to string and law formula to calculate the evaluation value of each route scheme. Combining with the two indexes of highway classification and transportation density to make integrated evaluation on highway service comfortableness, applying average weighing method of efficiency coefficient to calculate the evaluation value of each route scheme, thus proposing the new method and new thought of evaluation on highway service comfortableness, and perfecting the evaluation system of highway service comfortableness. Finally, utilizing the transportation time, transportation freight, transportation comfortableness as the evaluation index, I have carried on comprehensive evaluation to the choice of the optimum route in terms of the transporters. Through such evaluation, I have analyzed the adaptation situation of the focal point, sequencing of highway construction with transporters’requirement.
On the macroscopic evaluation of the highway transportation system, through an analysis of evaluation index of the total amount of the highway construction, proving the density of highway network and the connecting of highway network can well reflect the adaptability of highway construction and economic development. So, regarding Jilin Province as an example to illustrate how the density of highway network and the connecting of highway network can judge the density of highway network and the connecting of highway network can well reflect the adaptability of highway construction and economic development. Regarding GDP, regional land area, volume of trade, size of population as evaluation projects, and regarding nine areas of Jilin Province as evaluation scheme, using the level analytic approach and related matrix method to prove rationality of regional structure of highway construction. Through such evaluation, proving the adaptation situation of the density of highway network and feeding degree of highway network how to judge whether the total amount of highway construction is suitable for economic development.
In the evaluating process of carrying on highway equilibrium of demand and supply, at first, explaining the influence of a great deal of factors such as the total economy supply, industrial structure, geographical position, resource state, size of population and structure, and other transportation ways on highway demand. Secondly, defining the meaning of the highway demand, then dividing the highway demand into the passenger traffic highway demand and freight transportation demand, analyzing the factors influencing the passenger traffic highway demand and the highway freight transportation demand, having established the functional relation between passenger traffic highway demand and volume of passenger transport and the functional relation between freight transportation highway demand and volume of goods transported, and further confirmed the function of the aggregate highway demand, and by illustration, showing the function of the highway and highway demand and the changes of the highway demand. Then, defining the meaning of the highway supply and analyzing the factors influencing the highway supply, establishing the functional relation between delivery volume of the highway and amount of investment of the highway, and by illustration, showing the function of the highway supply and changes of the highway supply. Finally, comparing the determination of the best quantity of private products, combining the demand function of the highway with supply function, confirming the best quantity that the highway meets the demand thus making an appraise to the adaptation situations of the highway demand and highway supply.
The evaluation ,which is from the two aspects of microcosmic and macroscopic, is on the foundation of others’relevant researches, and is innovated while analyzing, comparing, using others’research results to some extent. The innovations are listed as follows:
1. In the alternative calculating method of minimum route, introduce decision-making tree concept and establish evaluation tree model combining joint point, scheme branches and evaluating point. With respect to the common used Dijkstra and Floyd calculation method, this model can clearly set out representation information and optimum seeking process of joint points and lines of each route, which is favorable for intuitionistic comparison of the route schemes and improvement of highway network layout optimal decision-making.
2. On the basis of defining comfortableness intension of highway transportation, regarding class of highway and vehicle density as the evaluation index, having put forward the new methods and new thinking on comfortableness of the highway transportation, having improved the evaluation system of the comfortableness of highway transportation.
3. Based on the principle of most optimum distribution of resources, regarding highway users as the subject of evaluation, and regarding transportation time, freight and comfortableness of transportation as the index, the comprehensive evaluation method of highway service efficiency is proposed, which compensates for over strong subjectivity in past index weighing value confirmation and the deficiency calculated according to the value of objective reality.
4. With respect to the difference of law of demand on highway network scale for volume of goods transported and volume of passenger transported, respectively taking volume of goods transported and volume of passenger transported as explaining variables, taking highway mileage as the variable being explained, establishing the highway freight demand model and highway passenger demand model, and then adding up and synthetizing the two items of highway freight demand model and highway passenger demand model under the same volume of volume of goods transported, further analyzing the impact of the changes of the volume of goods transported and volume of passenger transported on highway demand. This method is convenient for analyzing the impact and its comprehensive effects of volume of goods transported and volume of passenger transported on highway demand.
The research of the paper has offered the adaptability analysis of highway transportation system with the economy, social development, having set up and improved the content, index and method system of the post-evaluation of the highway transportation system, and offering reference for evaluation of the subsequent highway transportation system at the same time. Through the evaluation of the highway transportation system, we find problems existed in the running highway in time, offering the element task for the further analysis and study of the reasons for the existing problem and the countermeasure of the problem, thus promoting the operation result of the highway transportation system.
引文
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