FDI与我国地区经济增长及其收敛性研究
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摘要
改革开放30年以来,我国国民经济持续快速增长,成为世界上经济增长最快的地区之一。然而,在我国经济取得巨大成就的同时,地区经济增长呈现显著的非均衡性。研究表明,改革开放初期,我国地区差距逐渐缩小,经济存在收敛;进入20世纪90年代以后,广大内陆地区尤其是西部地区与沿海地区人均收入差距日益拉大,地区经济呈现发散趋势。而这一时期正是我国以引进外国直接投资(FDI)为主要特征的对外开放进入全面发展的阶段。FDI在积极促进我国经济增长的同时,各地区经济增长也受到FDI区域格局的显著影响。实证研究表明,FDI在我国地区分布的不均衡是导致目前我国地区经济差距不断拉大的主要原因之一。因此,研究FDI对我国地区经济增长及其收敛的影响,对于缩小地区差距,促进我国地区经济协调发展具有十分重要的意义。
本文系统地回顾了新古典增长和新增长理论及其收敛假说。在此基础上,将FDI作为资本积累、劳动力和技术进步的组合要素引入内生增长模型,构建了将FDI内生经济增长与新古典增长收敛模型相结合的理论框架。对于我国各地区而言,该模型指出,作为影响地区经济稳态的重要因素,FDI经济效应的地区差异导致了各地区经济增长率的不同。FDI经济效应较强的发达地区获得了更快的技术进步,因而保持了较高的经济增长率,使得其与FDI经济效应较差的落后地区之间差距不断扩大。如果消除了影响稳态的FDI因素的地区差异,则各地区将呈现条件收敛趋势。该模型从FDI视角为研究我国经济收敛提供了理论框架。
通过测算1978-1990年各省人均收入的σ收敛和进行Chow平稳性检验,证明我国地区差距以1990年为界呈现明显的阶段性变化。与此同时,20世纪90年代以后,FDI进入全面发展阶段,对促进我国各地区经济增长起到了重要的推动作用。然而,FDI在我国的区域格局存在显著的非均衡性,由此引发了有关FDI经济贡献的地区差异对该时期我国地区差距扩大影响的思考和研究。
本文依据统计事实,对FDI在我国及各地区的直接、间接效应进行了研究。分析结果表明,FDI通过增加资本积累、创造就业和扩大贸易等方面对我国经济增长起到了直接的推动作用。同时,对我国国内资本存量起到挤出/挤入效应,通过技术溢出效应提升国内企业技术进步,间接促进我国经济增长。在此基础上,论文采用改革开放以来的省级平衡面板数据,构建不同形式的生产函数模型,对FDI的直接、间接经济效应及各地区经济贡献进行估计和检验。
在对FDI经济效应的实证分析中,按照研究目的的不同,建立将资本和劳动要素分别划分为内、外资部分的可分解新古典两要素增长模型,构建考察FDI挤出/挤入效应的全国资本动态模型,以及引入FDI外部性的技术溢出效应模型。并根据不同样本组对FDI的地区经济贡献进行估计和检验。结果表明,FDI的资本、劳动边际生产率高于内资企业;FDI对我国国内资本的挤出、挤入效应相当,因而存在中性效应;FDI在我国普遍存在正的溢出效应。从地区角度分析,东部地区FDI资本、劳动要素边际生产率的直接经济效应,FDI的技术溢出效应和内、外资的技术差距均明显高于中西部地区。因此,可以得出结论,FDI对东部地区的经济贡献明显大于其它地区。该研究结果为20世纪90年代后我国地区经济差距的扩大提供了有力的解释。
在对FDI与我国经济收敛的实证研究中,根据新古典增长理论的收敛模型,分别考察了改革开放以来我国各地区β无条件收敛、将FDI作为控制变量的β条件收敛,引入空间变量的空间收敛以及俱乐部收敛情况。研究发现,β无条件收敛检验取得了与σ收敛分析一致的结论,并得到各阶段我国经济收敛/发散的速度。引入FDI控制变量以后的检验结果表明,如果消除了FDI的地区差异,各地区经济呈现明显的β条件收敛趋势。由此证明,我国现实经济中FDI的地区非均衡性促进了地区差距的扩大。在我国省域经济存在集聚性特征的基础上,建立空间滞后自相关面板数据模型。结果表明FDI显著促进我国经济条件收敛的同时,各省经济的空间正相关性削弱了FDI对我国经济收敛的推动作用。因此,忽略空间模式的传统计量模型高估了经济变量对收敛的影响及收敛速度。最后,论文分别考察了我国三大地带和六大区域和俱乐部收敛情况,研究表明,FDI显著促进了我国各地区内部的条件收敛,或减缓了地区内部的发散趋势。同时得出三大地带的东、中地区,以及六大区域的环渤海、东南沿海和华中地区之间存在显著的俱乐部收敛。
鉴于以上研究结果,我国在努力提高全国外资使用质量的同时,应采取吸引FDI的地区差别政策,进一步发挥东部地区FDI的技术优势和溢出效应,改善中西部地区尤其是西部地区的投资环境,提高其吸引FDI的业绩及潜力,提升FDI对落后地区经济增长的推动作用,从而改善我国地区收入分配的不均等现象,促进我国区域经济的协调发展。
China has maintained sustained and rapid economic growth for 3 decades since China launched open policy in 1978, and has become one of the those countries that has experienced fastest economic growth. Meanwhile, there is obvious economic imbalance among regions. On the early phase after China’s openness, there was significant convergence trend and regional inequality decreases gradually. However, income gap became even larger between many inland regions especially western regions and costal ones after 1990’s, which is exactly the period that China has put in place an all-dimensional and wide-ranged opening-up mainly featured by the inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI observably accelerate China’s economic growth, and therefore regional economic development is prominently affected by the regional pattern and performance of FDI. Empirical study proves that the disequilibria of FDI regional distribution is one of the main reasons of current increasingly bigger inequality in China. Accordingly, the research of the impact of FDI on regional economic growth and convergence plays an important role in the investigation of reducing regional disparity and promoting harmonious development among regions in China.
The dissertation takes a systematic contemplation of the concept of convergence from the view of neo-classical growth theory and new growth theory, on the basis of which we introduce FDI as a composite variable of capital, labor and technology advance into the endogenous growth models, constructing a framework combined by endogenous growth theory and convergence in the neo-classical model. The model indicates that difference of regional FDI distribution that acts as an important variable influencing the steady state leads to differentiation of growth rate. If regional difference of FDI affecting steady state is eliminated, economy convergences. This model provide a theoretical basis for the empirical study on China’s regional convergence from the point of view of FDI.
The dissertation computeσconvergence of provincial income per capita in the period between 1978 and 2007 and takes Chow stability test to confirm that regional income disparity takes on a obvious phase divided by the year of 1990 after openness in China. Meanwhile, our country became to increase attracting FDI, which developed into an all-dimensional and wide-ranged period and FDI plays an important role in accelerating regional economic growth. However, the significant disequilibria of FDI regional distribution brings about the investigation that regional diversity of FDI contribution result in the increasing regional economic gap.
Based on statistical analysis, we examine the direct effect and indirect effect of FDI on China’s economic growth and find that FDI not only conduces to accelerate capital accumulation, employment creation and trade enlargement which promote economic growth directly, but crowd out/ crowd in domestic investment and advance technology progress of enterprises via FDI spillovers driving China’s economic growth indirectly. We then estimate and test the direct and indirect economic effect of FDI on economic growth using different production function model with latest balanced provincial panel-data.
In the empirical investigation of FDI’s impact on regional economic growth, we construct models based on different research aims. We employ a neo-classical growth model with its two factors of national product function decomposed into two sectors- foreign sector and local sector, construct a dynamic investment model investigating crowding-out/ crowding-in effect of FDI, and constitute a FDI spillover effect model taking externality of FDI into account. Estimate of FDI economic contribution based on different regional samples shows that the marginal productivity of capital and labor brought about by FDI is much higher than that of local sector, there existing neutral effect of FDI on China’s domestic capital, and FDI possesses positive spillovers in China. From the point of view of regional analysis, FDI in eastern areas has higher direct effect on economic growth and spillovers than other regions, and hence FDI in eastern regions evidently contributes more to regional economic growth than others.Thus we obtain the results that FDI speed up China’s economic production via its direct and indirect economic effect prominently, and own greater direct effect than local sector. The empirical finding about FDI’s impact on economic growth and contribution difference provides powerful explanation to the enlargement of regional disparity after 1990’s in China.
In the empirical study of FDI’s impact on convergence, we examine theβunconditional convergence,βconditional convergence with FDI as controlling variable, spatial convergence under spatial effect, and club convergence. Results point out that we gain an identical finding ofβunconditional convergence withσconvergence and convergence speed in the same time. After the introduction of FDI variable, estimate ofβconditional convergence shows that with regional diversity of FDI economic contribution, economy present a significant convergences approving that the differential of FDI regional distribution in China enlarge the regional income gap practically. Furthermore, the dissertation upbuilds a spatial autoregressive panel-data model of FDI’s impact on China’s convergence on the basis of the economic characteristics of conglomeration and gets the results that FDI is conducive toβconditional convergence but the spatial autoregression weaken the impact of FDI on convergence due to economic spillovers among provinces. Therefore, we deduce that traditional model omitting spatial effect overestimate the acceleration of economic variables. Finally, we investigate the club convergence according to compartmentalizing China into three terrains and six zones. Results approve that FDI significantly promote the convergence, or slower the trend of divergence. It shows that eastern and middle terrain represents club convergence, and there exists significant club convergence between Bohai circle, northeastern and Huazhong zone.
Accordingly, Chinese government is advised to make efforts improving the quality to employ FDI and in the meantime to take regional discriminative policies attracting FDI. Local government should make full use of FDI technological advantage and spillovers in eastern provinces, improve investment environment in middle and western regions. With regional FDI performance and potential promoted and FDI’s impact on regional economic growth enhanced, regional income disparity in China will be reduced and harmonious development among regions will sure be obtained.
本文系统地回顾了新古典增长和新增长理论及其收敛假说。在此基础上,将FDI作为资本积累、劳动力和技术进步的组合要素引入内生增长模型,构建了将FDI内生经济增长与新古典增长收敛模型相结合的理论框架。对于我国各地区而言,该模型指出,作为影响地区经济稳态的重要因素,FDI经济效应的地区差异导致了各地区经济增长率的不同。FDI经济效应较强的发达地区获得了更快的技术进步,因而保持了较高的经济增长率,使得其与FDI经济效应较差的落后地区之间差距不断扩大。如果消除了影响稳态的FDI因素的地区差异,则各地区将呈现条件收敛趋势。该模型从FDI视角为研究我国经济收敛提供了理论框架。
通过测算1978-1990年各省人均收入的σ收敛和进行Chow平稳性检验,证明我国地区差距以1990年为界呈现明显的阶段性变化。与此同时,20世纪90年代以后,FDI进入全面发展阶段,对促进我国各地区经济增长起到了重要的推动作用。然而,FDI在我国的区域格局存在显著的非均衡性,由此引发了有关FDI经济贡献的地区差异对该时期我国地区差距扩大影响的思考和研究。
本文依据统计事实,对FDI在我国及各地区的直接、间接效应进行了研究。分析结果表明,FDI通过增加资本积累、创造就业和扩大贸易等方面对我国经济增长起到了直接的推动作用。同时,对我国国内资本存量起到挤出/挤入效应,通过技术溢出效应提升国内企业技术进步,间接促进我国经济增长。在此基础上,论文采用改革开放以来的省级平衡面板数据,构建不同形式的生产函数模型,对FDI的直接、间接经济效应及各地区经济贡献进行估计和检验。
在对FDI经济效应的实证分析中,按照研究目的的不同,建立将资本和劳动要素分别划分为内、外资部分的可分解新古典两要素增长模型,构建考察FDI挤出/挤入效应的全国资本动态模型,以及引入FDI外部性的技术溢出效应模型。并根据不同样本组对FDI的地区经济贡献进行估计和检验。结果表明,FDI的资本、劳动边际生产率高于内资企业;FDI对我国国内资本的挤出、挤入效应相当,因而存在中性效应;FDI在我国普遍存在正的溢出效应。从地区角度分析,东部地区FDI资本、劳动要素边际生产率的直接经济效应,FDI的技术溢出效应和内、外资的技术差距均明显高于中西部地区。因此,可以得出结论,FDI对东部地区的经济贡献明显大于其它地区。该研究结果为20世纪90年代后我国地区经济差距的扩大提供了有力的解释。
在对FDI与我国经济收敛的实证研究中,根据新古典增长理论的收敛模型,分别考察了改革开放以来我国各地区β无条件收敛、将FDI作为控制变量的β条件收敛,引入空间变量的空间收敛以及俱乐部收敛情况。研究发现,β无条件收敛检验取得了与σ收敛分析一致的结论,并得到各阶段我国经济收敛/发散的速度。引入FDI控制变量以后的检验结果表明,如果消除了FDI的地区差异,各地区经济呈现明显的β条件收敛趋势。由此证明,我国现实经济中FDI的地区非均衡性促进了地区差距的扩大。在我国省域经济存在集聚性特征的基础上,建立空间滞后自相关面板数据模型。结果表明FDI显著促进我国经济条件收敛的同时,各省经济的空间正相关性削弱了FDI对我国经济收敛的推动作用。因此,忽略空间模式的传统计量模型高估了经济变量对收敛的影响及收敛速度。最后,论文分别考察了我国三大地带和六大区域和俱乐部收敛情况,研究表明,FDI显著促进了我国各地区内部的条件收敛,或减缓了地区内部的发散趋势。同时得出三大地带的东、中地区,以及六大区域的环渤海、东南沿海和华中地区之间存在显著的俱乐部收敛。
鉴于以上研究结果,我国在努力提高全国外资使用质量的同时,应采取吸引FDI的地区差别政策,进一步发挥东部地区FDI的技术优势和溢出效应,改善中西部地区尤其是西部地区的投资环境,提高其吸引FDI的业绩及潜力,提升FDI对落后地区经济增长的推动作用,从而改善我国地区收入分配的不均等现象,促进我国区域经济的协调发展。
China has maintained sustained and rapid economic growth for 3 decades since China launched open policy in 1978, and has become one of the those countries that has experienced fastest economic growth. Meanwhile, there is obvious economic imbalance among regions. On the early phase after China’s openness, there was significant convergence trend and regional inequality decreases gradually. However, income gap became even larger between many inland regions especially western regions and costal ones after 1990’s, which is exactly the period that China has put in place an all-dimensional and wide-ranged opening-up mainly featured by the inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI observably accelerate China’s economic growth, and therefore regional economic development is prominently affected by the regional pattern and performance of FDI. Empirical study proves that the disequilibria of FDI regional distribution is one of the main reasons of current increasingly bigger inequality in China. Accordingly, the research of the impact of FDI on regional economic growth and convergence plays an important role in the investigation of reducing regional disparity and promoting harmonious development among regions in China.
The dissertation takes a systematic contemplation of the concept of convergence from the view of neo-classical growth theory and new growth theory, on the basis of which we introduce FDI as a composite variable of capital, labor and technology advance into the endogenous growth models, constructing a framework combined by endogenous growth theory and convergence in the neo-classical model. The model indicates that difference of regional FDI distribution that acts as an important variable influencing the steady state leads to differentiation of growth rate. If regional difference of FDI affecting steady state is eliminated, economy convergences. This model provide a theoretical basis for the empirical study on China’s regional convergence from the point of view of FDI.
The dissertation computeσconvergence of provincial income per capita in the period between 1978 and 2007 and takes Chow stability test to confirm that regional income disparity takes on a obvious phase divided by the year of 1990 after openness in China. Meanwhile, our country became to increase attracting FDI, which developed into an all-dimensional and wide-ranged period and FDI plays an important role in accelerating regional economic growth. However, the significant disequilibria of FDI regional distribution brings about the investigation that regional diversity of FDI contribution result in the increasing regional economic gap.
Based on statistical analysis, we examine the direct effect and indirect effect of FDI on China’s economic growth and find that FDI not only conduces to accelerate capital accumulation, employment creation and trade enlargement which promote economic growth directly, but crowd out/ crowd in domestic investment and advance technology progress of enterprises via FDI spillovers driving China’s economic growth indirectly. We then estimate and test the direct and indirect economic effect of FDI on economic growth using different production function model with latest balanced provincial panel-data.
In the empirical investigation of FDI’s impact on regional economic growth, we construct models based on different research aims. We employ a neo-classical growth model with its two factors of national product function decomposed into two sectors- foreign sector and local sector, construct a dynamic investment model investigating crowding-out/ crowding-in effect of FDI, and constitute a FDI spillover effect model taking externality of FDI into account. Estimate of FDI economic contribution based on different regional samples shows that the marginal productivity of capital and labor brought about by FDI is much higher than that of local sector, there existing neutral effect of FDI on China’s domestic capital, and FDI possesses positive spillovers in China. From the point of view of regional analysis, FDI in eastern areas has higher direct effect on economic growth and spillovers than other regions, and hence FDI in eastern regions evidently contributes more to regional economic growth than others.Thus we obtain the results that FDI speed up China’s economic production via its direct and indirect economic effect prominently, and own greater direct effect than local sector. The empirical finding about FDI’s impact on economic growth and contribution difference provides powerful explanation to the enlargement of regional disparity after 1990’s in China.
In the empirical study of FDI’s impact on convergence, we examine theβunconditional convergence,βconditional convergence with FDI as controlling variable, spatial convergence under spatial effect, and club convergence. Results point out that we gain an identical finding ofβunconditional convergence withσconvergence and convergence speed in the same time. After the introduction of FDI variable, estimate ofβconditional convergence shows that with regional diversity of FDI economic contribution, economy present a significant convergences approving that the differential of FDI regional distribution in China enlarge the regional income gap practically. Furthermore, the dissertation upbuilds a spatial autoregressive panel-data model of FDI’s impact on China’s convergence on the basis of the economic characteristics of conglomeration and gets the results that FDI is conducive toβconditional convergence but the spatial autoregression weaken the impact of FDI on convergence due to economic spillovers among provinces. Therefore, we deduce that traditional model omitting spatial effect overestimate the acceleration of economic variables. Finally, we investigate the club convergence according to compartmentalizing China into three terrains and six zones. Results approve that FDI significantly promote the convergence, or slower the trend of divergence. It shows that eastern and middle terrain represents club convergence, and there exists significant club convergence between Bohai circle, northeastern and Huazhong zone.
Accordingly, Chinese government is advised to make efforts improving the quality to employ FDI and in the meantime to take regional discriminative policies attracting FDI. Local government should make full use of FDI technological advantage and spillovers in eastern provinces, improve investment environment in middle and western regions. With regional FDI performance and potential promoted and FDI’s impact on regional economic growth enhanced, regional income disparity in China will be reduced and harmonious development among regions will sure be obtained.
引文
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