人民币升值对上海市引进FDI影响的定量分析
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摘要
自从1994年我国政府通过对人民币的大幅贬值实现了官方汇率和市场汇率并轨以后,人民币汇率在近10年内基本处于稳定状态,直到2004年。此后,2005年7月21日人民币汇率开始实行以市场供求为基础的、有管理的浮动汇率制度,人民币也开始进入缓慢升值状态。
与此同时,随着经济全球化的深入发展,跨国直接投资(FDI)正取代国际贸易,成为国际资本流动的主要方式。中国作为经济稳步高速发展的发展中国家,一直是外商直接投资的主要目标国之一,2003年,中国更是首次超过美国成为接收外商直接投资量最多的国家。外商直接投资(FDI)的流入,不仅带来了先进的管理、生产技术和投资资金,还提供了大量的就业岗位,缓解了我国的就业压力,FDI较高的工业生产量对我国GDP保持高速增长也作出了重大贡献。那么,在人民币缓慢升值的宏观经济背景下,流入我国的FDI将会受到什么影响?为什么产生这样的影响?本文正是基于此,选择流入上海市的FDI为对象,进行了经验和实证分析。
研究结果显示,人民币升值在短期和长期内相对于GDP增长率均对流入上海市FDI的影响不大(长期弹性系数为-0.23;短期弹性系数为-0.79)。进一步的分析发现,外资企业主要受进入和退出新市场产生沉淀成本的影响,对人民币升值反应不敏感。独资经营、合资经营和合作经营类FDI中,独资经营外资企业受到的影响相对较小,合资经营外资企业受到的影响较大,弹性系数为-3.08。同时,独资经营是流入上海市FDI的主要经营方式,2006年底,所占比重为75.0%,其次是合资经营,所占比重为22.3%。
事实上,国际上许多国家在经济发展过程中经历过本币升值的过程,借鉴他们的经验和教训有着重要实践意义。本文选择了新加坡和日本作为引进外资多或少的经验考察对象,总结了两国政策措施上的差异,在此基础上对上海市引进FDI工作提出了初步建议。我们认为未来引进FDI的工作重点应该放在吸引FDI以独资形式流向第三产业上。
Since Chinese government incorporated official exchange rate with market exchange rate by substantially depreciating RMB exchange rate in 1994, the RMB exchange rate has been in a stable state in nearly 20 years until 2004.
Meanwhile with the development of economic globalization, as a substitute of international trade,Foreign direct investment (FDI) is becoming the main pattern of international capital flows. As a rapidly developing country, China is always one of the main inflow countries of FDI. In 2003, for the first time, China received the most FDI inflow volume instead of America. The inflow of FDI not only brings advanced management experience, produce technology, capital, but also enough job opportunity which will release the pressure of unemployment. At the same time, large foreign industry production plays an important role for the stable and high development of GDP.
Recently RMB was slowly and stably appreciating, this will induce what effect on China’s FDI inflow? Why is that effect? To study these question, this paper choose Shanghai city as a sample to make quality analysis and quantity analysis.
The result shows RMB appreciation has little effect on FDI inflow of Shanghai city in both short time and long time (long time and short time coefficient of elasticity is -0.23 and -0.79 respectively). Through further analysis we can find the reason is it will incur the sunk costs when a firm enters or exits a new market. Among the solely foreign-funded firm, joint adventure and cooperative venture, the effect of RMB appreciation on solely foreign-funded firm is less, while on the co-operative venture is relatively large, the coefficient of elasticity is -3.08. At the same time, FDI flow in Shanghai mainly by wholly foreign-funded mode which account for 75.0% at the end of 2006, the next is co-operative venture 22.3%.
In fact many countries at the way of economy development experienced the process of currency appreciation, learn from their experience and lesson has important practical meaning. Therefore, this article has respectively chosen Singapore and Japan as a study of sample, summed up the differences of policies and measures between the two countries then put forward some initial proposals for FDI in Shanghai. We believe that the future work of introduction of FDI should focus on directing FDI to tertiary industry in the form of wholly foreign fund.
与此同时,随着经济全球化的深入发展,跨国直接投资(FDI)正取代国际贸易,成为国际资本流动的主要方式。中国作为经济稳步高速发展的发展中国家,一直是外商直接投资的主要目标国之一,2003年,中国更是首次超过美国成为接收外商直接投资量最多的国家。外商直接投资(FDI)的流入,不仅带来了先进的管理、生产技术和投资资金,还提供了大量的就业岗位,缓解了我国的就业压力,FDI较高的工业生产量对我国GDP保持高速增长也作出了重大贡献。那么,在人民币缓慢升值的宏观经济背景下,流入我国的FDI将会受到什么影响?为什么产生这样的影响?本文正是基于此,选择流入上海市的FDI为对象,进行了经验和实证分析。
研究结果显示,人民币升值在短期和长期内相对于GDP增长率均对流入上海市FDI的影响不大(长期弹性系数为-0.23;短期弹性系数为-0.79)。进一步的分析发现,外资企业主要受进入和退出新市场产生沉淀成本的影响,对人民币升值反应不敏感。独资经营、合资经营和合作经营类FDI中,独资经营外资企业受到的影响相对较小,合资经营外资企业受到的影响较大,弹性系数为-3.08。同时,独资经营是流入上海市FDI的主要经营方式,2006年底,所占比重为75.0%,其次是合资经营,所占比重为22.3%。
事实上,国际上许多国家在经济发展过程中经历过本币升值的过程,借鉴他们的经验和教训有着重要实践意义。本文选择了新加坡和日本作为引进外资多或少的经验考察对象,总结了两国政策措施上的差异,在此基础上对上海市引进FDI工作提出了初步建议。我们认为未来引进FDI的工作重点应该放在吸引FDI以独资形式流向第三产业上。
Since Chinese government incorporated official exchange rate with market exchange rate by substantially depreciating RMB exchange rate in 1994, the RMB exchange rate has been in a stable state in nearly 20 years until 2004.
Meanwhile with the development of economic globalization, as a substitute of international trade,Foreign direct investment (FDI) is becoming the main pattern of international capital flows. As a rapidly developing country, China is always one of the main inflow countries of FDI. In 2003, for the first time, China received the most FDI inflow volume instead of America. The inflow of FDI not only brings advanced management experience, produce technology, capital, but also enough job opportunity which will release the pressure of unemployment. At the same time, large foreign industry production plays an important role for the stable and high development of GDP.
Recently RMB was slowly and stably appreciating, this will induce what effect on China’s FDI inflow? Why is that effect? To study these question, this paper choose Shanghai city as a sample to make quality analysis and quantity analysis.
The result shows RMB appreciation has little effect on FDI inflow of Shanghai city in both short time and long time (long time and short time coefficient of elasticity is -0.23 and -0.79 respectively). Through further analysis we can find the reason is it will incur the sunk costs when a firm enters or exits a new market. Among the solely foreign-funded firm, joint adventure and cooperative venture, the effect of RMB appreciation on solely foreign-funded firm is less, while on the co-operative venture is relatively large, the coefficient of elasticity is -3.08. At the same time, FDI flow in Shanghai mainly by wholly foreign-funded mode which account for 75.0% at the end of 2006, the next is co-operative venture 22.3%.
In fact many countries at the way of economy development experienced the process of currency appreciation, learn from their experience and lesson has important practical meaning. Therefore, this article has respectively chosen Singapore and Japan as a study of sample, summed up the differences of policies and measures between the two countries then put forward some initial proposals for FDI in Shanghai. We believe that the future work of introduction of FDI should focus on directing FDI to tertiary industry in the form of wholly foreign fund.
引文
[1]巴曙松,吴博,朱元倩.关于实际有效汇率计算方法的比较与评述.管理世界:2007年第5期
[2]胡邦勇.实际汇率变动对我国FDI的影响.统计观察:2007年第24期
[3]罗忠洲.日元汇率波动对FDI影响的实证分析. Foreign Exchange: 2005年第106期
[4]黎草.战后日本的引进外资政策.财政研究:1994年第4期
[5]李恩辕,商有光.计量经济学. 2007版.哈尔滨工业大学出版社:第141-150页
[6]孙执中.荣衰论:战后日本经济史. 2006年版.人民出版社:第42页
[7]孙雷,杨舜贤.浅析人民币升值对FDI可能形成的影响. 2005年版. Forward Position in Economics
[8]荀青.人民币实际有效汇率与外商直接投资关系研究.理论探讨
[9]邢予青.日本FDI在中国:趋势、结构和汇率中的角色.世界经济文汇:2004年第6期
[10]邢予青.汇率与日本对华直接投资.世界经济论坛:2003年第6期
[11]邢予青,万广华.中国应该让人民币升值吗?.经济学(季刊):2006年1月,第5卷第2期
[12]杨大楷,周晓泽.新加坡利用外资的政策分析及对我国的启示.广西财政高等专科学校学报:2005年2月版,第18卷第1期
[13]张季风.挣脱萧条:1990~2006年的日本经济. 2006年版.社会科学文献出版社:第5页
[14]钟南.新加坡的外资立法与政策.东南亚研究:1995年第1期
[15]张庆君.人民币汇率与外来直接投资关系的实证研究.经济论坛:2006年第20卷第四期
[16]周华.汇率水平、汇率波动幅度与国际直接投资.金融在线:1994年
[17]张文,杨泽文.汇率波动对我国外商直接投资的影响.新金融:2006年第2期
[18]张亮.实际有效汇率对我国外商直接投资的影响.统计观察:2006年3月
[19]张娜.上海利用FDI的经济效应研究.东华大学硕士毕业论文:2004年
[20]张斌.人民币真实汇率:概念测量与分析.经济发展论坛工作论文:No. FC20050007
[21]《中国外商投资报告》,2007年
[22]《世界投资报告》,1996年
[23]《世界投资报告》,1993年
[24]上海要闻《进沪国际资本75%投向服务业上半年本市新批此类外资项目1527个》,2008年7月18日,上海市人民政府网站
[25]Blonigen, Bruce A. Firm-Specific Assets and the Link Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment. American Economic Review: Vol.87, pp.447-465, 1997
[26]Baldwin R.,and P.Krugman. Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks. Quarterly Journal of Economics: 104(1989), 634-55
[27]Cushman, D.O.. Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations and The Level of Direct Investment. Review of Economics and Statistics: Vol.67, pp.297-308, 1985
[28]Dixit A.. Intersectoral Capital Reallocation Under Price Uncertainty. Journal of International Economics:26(1989), 309-26
[29]Froot, Kenneth and Stein, Jeremy. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics: Vol.196, pp1191-1218, 1991
[30]Goldberg and Kolstad. Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty. International Economic Review:Vol 36, pp 855-73, 1995
[31]Hongmo Sung and Harvey E.Lapan. Strategic Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange-Rate Uncertainty. International Economic Review: Vol.41, No.2, May 2000
[32]Holger Gorg and Katharine Wakelin. The Impact of Exchange Rate Variability on Us Direct Investment. Paper Prepared for The GEP Conference on FDI and Economic Integration: June 29th ~30th, 2001
[33]Linda S. Goldberg. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment. Written for The Princeton Encyclopedia of The World Economy: 2006
[2]胡邦勇.实际汇率变动对我国FDI的影响.统计观察:2007年第24期
[3]罗忠洲.日元汇率波动对FDI影响的实证分析. Foreign Exchange: 2005年第106期
[4]黎草.战后日本的引进外资政策.财政研究:1994年第4期
[5]李恩辕,商有光.计量经济学. 2007版.哈尔滨工业大学出版社:第141-150页
[6]孙执中.荣衰论:战后日本经济史. 2006年版.人民出版社:第42页
[7]孙雷,杨舜贤.浅析人民币升值对FDI可能形成的影响. 2005年版. Forward Position in Economics
[8]荀青.人民币实际有效汇率与外商直接投资关系研究.理论探讨
[9]邢予青.日本FDI在中国:趋势、结构和汇率中的角色.世界经济文汇:2004年第6期
[10]邢予青.汇率与日本对华直接投资.世界经济论坛:2003年第6期
[11]邢予青,万广华.中国应该让人民币升值吗?.经济学(季刊):2006年1月,第5卷第2期
[12]杨大楷,周晓泽.新加坡利用外资的政策分析及对我国的启示.广西财政高等专科学校学报:2005年2月版,第18卷第1期
[13]张季风.挣脱萧条:1990~2006年的日本经济. 2006年版.社会科学文献出版社:第5页
[14]钟南.新加坡的外资立法与政策.东南亚研究:1995年第1期
[15]张庆君.人民币汇率与外来直接投资关系的实证研究.经济论坛:2006年第20卷第四期
[16]周华.汇率水平、汇率波动幅度与国际直接投资.金融在线:1994年
[17]张文,杨泽文.汇率波动对我国外商直接投资的影响.新金融:2006年第2期
[18]张亮.实际有效汇率对我国外商直接投资的影响.统计观察:2006年3月
[19]张娜.上海利用FDI的经济效应研究.东华大学硕士毕业论文:2004年
[20]张斌.人民币真实汇率:概念测量与分析.经济发展论坛工作论文:No. FC20050007
[21]《中国外商投资报告》,2007年
[22]《世界投资报告》,1996年
[23]《世界投资报告》,1993年
[24]上海要闻《进沪国际资本75%投向服务业上半年本市新批此类外资项目1527个》,2008年7月18日,上海市人民政府网站
[25]Blonigen, Bruce A. Firm-Specific Assets and the Link Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment. American Economic Review: Vol.87, pp.447-465, 1997
[26]Baldwin R.,and P.Krugman. Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks. Quarterly Journal of Economics: 104(1989), 634-55
[27]Cushman, D.O.. Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations and The Level of Direct Investment. Review of Economics and Statistics: Vol.67, pp.297-308, 1985
[28]Dixit A.. Intersectoral Capital Reallocation Under Price Uncertainty. Journal of International Economics:26(1989), 309-26
[29]Froot, Kenneth and Stein, Jeremy. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics: Vol.196, pp1191-1218, 1991
[30]Goldberg and Kolstad. Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty. International Economic Review:Vol 36, pp 855-73, 1995
[31]Hongmo Sung and Harvey E.Lapan. Strategic Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange-Rate Uncertainty. International Economic Review: Vol.41, No.2, May 2000
[32]Holger Gorg and Katharine Wakelin. The Impact of Exchange Rate Variability on Us Direct Investment. Paper Prepared for The GEP Conference on FDI and Economic Integration: June 29th ~30th, 2001
[33]Linda S. Goldberg. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment. Written for The Princeton Encyclopedia of The World Economy: 2006